A Problematic Future for Northern Australia?

A presentation to the June 2008 Bureau of Transport, Infrastructure and Regional Economics

“Regional Perspectives” Conference.

By

Rolf Gerritsen, Research Leader, Central Australia, Charles Darwin University

• IntroductionIntroduction

• I propose a paradox; Northern Australia will have relatively high economic growth rates over the coming decades but will be doing less well – in socio-economic as well as environmental terms – than desirable.

• (NB I will not deal with environmental challenges here, though they will be increasingly severe in the future)

• Why? Essentially poorly sustainable growth rather than economic and social development.

• IntroductionIntroduction

• I propose a paradox; Northern Australia will have relatively high economic growth rates over the coming decades but will be doing less well – in socio-economic as well as environmental terms – than desirable.

• (NB I will not deal with environmental challenges here, though they will be increasingly severe in the future)

• Why? Essentially poorly sustainable growth rather than economic and social development.

Thesis:Thesis:

• Assuming present policy settings, Northern Australia will fall further behind settled Australia over the next decades. We will also see two Northern Australias – one comprising relatively wealthy expatriates and one comprising mostly permanently resident, impoverished, Aboriginal people

• Why is the prognosis for northern and central Australia one of increasing difficulties?

Thesis:Thesis:

• Assuming present policy settings, Northern Australia will fall further behind settled Australia over the next decades. We will also see two Northern Australias – one comprising relatively wealthy expatriates and one comprising mostly permanently resident, impoverished, Aboriginal people

• Why is the prognosis for northern and central Australia one of increasing difficulties?

Several – interrelated (NB) - sets of demographic, social and economic reasons

1. Demographic changes

2. Settlement patterns

• Disabling urban growth

• Economic decline of inland service centres and mining towns

• Rise of Aboriginal settlements

Several – interrelated (NB) - sets of demographic, social and economic reasons

1. Demographic changes

2. Settlement patterns

• Disabling urban growth

• Economic decline of inland service centres and mining towns

• Rise of Aboriginal settlements

3. Economy: a permanently marginalized economy unable to deal with endemic problems

• Industry sector stasis

• An encapsulated export sector

• An inefficient labour market

• Welfare dependence reducing the local “market”

• Poor bases of and structures for innovation

3. Economy: a permanently marginalized economy unable to deal with endemic problems

• Industry sector stasis

• An encapsulated export sector

• An inefficient labour market

• Welfare dependence reducing the local “market”

• Poor bases of and structures for innovation

4. Socio-political incapacity

• Public sector inefficiency and incapacity

• Impoverishment and social problems on Aboriginal settlements (“urban drift” response?)

• Welfare dependence reducing the local “market”

• Lack of innovation

4. Socio-political incapacity

• Public sector inefficiency and incapacity

• Impoverishment and social problems on Aboriginal settlements (“urban drift” response?)

• Welfare dependence reducing the local “market”

• Lack of innovation

People designing future development scenarios need to accurately analyse present trends in order to alter them for more beneficial outcomes.

Need to:

• Re-cast economic policy and the urban bias of public sector services and investment

• Re-think Aboriginal policy

• Prepare for climate change

People designing future development scenarios need to accurately analyse present trends in order to alter them for more beneficial outcomes.

Need to:

• Re-cast economic policy and the urban bias of public sector services and investment

• Re-think Aboriginal policy

• Prepare for climate change