a study material for risk assessments in water supply

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Presented By:

Athulya C S

TJALECE014

Guided By:

Ms. Ayana V S

Assistant Professor ,

Department of Civil Engineering

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Water is the essence of life

Important to both society and ecosystems

We depend on a reliable, clean supply of drinking water

We need water for agriculture, energy production,

navigation, recreation, and manufacturing

INTRODUCTION

WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM

Water supply systems provide water in sufficient quantity

and quality

It is an essential requirement for all people

3 components:

Source

Treatment

Distribution

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Source of water refers to the surface water and

groundwater

Depending on the raw water quality, the treatment

objectives and the costs of operation, different water

treatments are provided

Water Supply System Continues...

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Comprises of :

Storage facilities

Pumping stations

Interconnected series of pipes


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The failure occurs when the system is unable to meet the

water quantity and quality requirements

Risks:

• Change in precipitation

• Temperature

• Climate change

• Population


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Changes are expected to differ from region-to-region

It will be directly impacted by changes in atmospheric

condition, topographical features,etc.

Any change will result in corresponding regional

changes in runoff

i. Precipitation

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Influences water availability

It cause increase in evaporation may result in droughts

Results in melting of glaciers

ii.Temperature

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The effects will be felt particularly through changes in

the water cycle

Water supply and sanitation infrastructure and

management systems are vulnerable to current climate

related threats

It determines how much water is available and how

much water we need in the short and long term

iii.Climate change

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Major factors that define the performance of a water

supply system

A major contributor to water scarcity

As the world’s population grows, the demand for water

mounts and pressure on finite water resources increses

iv.Population

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Growth in populations means competition for water for

domestic, industrial, and municipal water uses

Limits the amount of water available per person

Population Continues...

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Risk is defined as a measure of the probability and

severity of adverse effects

Risk in water supply systems lays in the principle

components of the system

Need of Risk Assessment

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Includes :

Mechanical, operational, or structural failure

Treatment

Distribution system components

Need of Risk Assessment Continues…

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Risk found in a water supply system focused on the risk

of water shortage due to population growth and climate

change

There are three primary types of risk:

Objective

Subjective

Perceived risk


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Reliability, Resiliency, and Vulnerability can be used to

describe the performance of a water resource system

a. Reliability

•Probability that a system operates within specified

conditions during a specified period of time

•Probability of a system in its satisfactory state


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b. Resiliency

How quickly a system recover a failure

Measured by system’s average recovery rate

The expected maximum severity of an overall system

c. Vulnerability


WATER DEMAND MODELLING

To forecast these future risks, one of the best methods is

to construct a stochastic model

The advantage of the stochastic approach is to capture

the uncertainties found in natural climate variability

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General Circulation Models (Global Climate Models)

are a class of computer models developed primarily for

weather forecasting and climate change

Water Demand Modelling Continues...

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A computer-based model is constructed to estimate the

performance indices of a water supply system

Examines the impacts of population growth and

fluctuating climate conditions on the water supply system

Water Demand Modelling Continues...

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MODEL ARCHITECTURE

In most failure mode or risk analysis studies, the

potential failure to a system is first determined and

analyzed

Artificial Neural Network models are becoming

prominent for water demand forecasting

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ANN model interpret the relationship found between the

input and output data

ANN is suitable to perform a function by using multiple

parameters on the existing information and predict the

possible relationships

Artifitial Neural Network Continue...

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ANN has the ability to map out and reproduce the

complex relationships underlying the water consumption

data


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The network training process involves three major steps:

Data selection

Input variable selection

Best net selection


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ANN could compute a variety of system outputs, such

as energy costs as a function of water source and

treatment

ANN system used to minimize operational costs

without violating regulatory and environmental

constraints


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Structure of simulation model schematic for

Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability assessment

process are:

Model Archetecture Continue...

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Stimulation Model

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Monte Carlo Simulation involves generating random

values of stochastic parameters from their corresponding

probability distribution

Steps are:

• Generation of basic events

• Simulation of effect

• Cumulation of performance statistics

Monte Carlo Simulation Continue...

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MCM to generate two time series measures by

probability distributions and utilizes ANN to calculate the

daily water demand

Examines all the possible outcomes and assesses the

impact of risk for better decision making

Monte Carlo Model Continues...

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Monte Carlo Simulation assists organizations that allow

supply chain to forecast any number of potential obstacles,

cause disturbance

Monte Carlo Model Continues...

CONCLUSION

Climate change a complex issue, more work is needed to

establish reliable practices for incorporating it into water

utility decisions and planning

ANN model in combination with MCM, arrives the

advantages of a simple functional form and accuracy

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The simulation model takes climatic variables and water

consumption patterns from historical records and projects

The model is used to estimate the effects of water

efficiency management programs and system expansion

on improving the system

Conclusion Continue...

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REFERENCES

1. Beatrice Biau Yung, Bryan A. Tolson, and Donald H. Burn, “Risk

Assessment of a Water Supply System under Climate Variability:

A Stochastic Approach”, Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering,

July 2011, pp.252-262.

2. Guy Howard, Katrina Charles, Kathy Pond, Anca Brookshaw,

Rifat Hossain and Jamie Bartram, “Securing 2020 vision for

2030: climate change and ensuring resilience in water and

sanitation services”, Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2010.

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3. M.Nirmala Ian Beauregard, Guillaume Talbot, Daniel Caya,

and Sebastien Binerb, “Modeling and Predicting the Monthly

Rainfall in Thamilnadu as a Seasonal Multivariate Arima

Process”, International Journal of Computer Engineering and

Technology, May-June 2010, ISSN 0976-6367, Vol.1, No.1, pp.

103-111.

4. M. R. Najafi, and H. Moradkhani, “A hierarchical Bayesian

approach for the analysis of climate change impact on runoff

extremes”, Hydrological Processes, November 2013.

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5. Philip W. Mote, and Eric P. Salathe Jr, “Future climate in the

Pacific Northwest”, Climate Change , March 2010.

6. “Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: A Review of

Water Utility Practices”, Office of Water Environmental

Protection Agency, August 2010.

7. http://www.goldsim.com/Web/Introduction/Probabilistic/Mo

nteCarlo.

8. http://www.cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/palmerhahnportland111.pdf

9. http://www.waterrf.org/PublicReportLibrary/4340.pdf

a study material for risk assessments in water supply

Engineering

source of water

water quantity

water available

water mounts

water scarcityas

surface water

water cyclewater supply

risk of water shortage