a tour of the global economy (in one chart pack) · while the macroscope model is forward looking,...
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![Page 1: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
4 October 2019
A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack)
Chief Analyst, Head of International MacroJakob Ekholdt Christensen+45 4512 [email protected]
Chief AnalystAllan von Mehren+45 45 12 80 [email protected]
Senior ECB/ Euro area AnalystPiet P. H. Christiansen45 45 13 20 [email protected]
AnalystAila Mihr+45 45 12 85 [email protected]
Senior AnalystMikael Olai Milhøj+45 45 12 76 [email protected]
Important certifications and disclosures are contained from page 157 of this report
Investment Research
Investment Research
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We aim this chart pack at readers who like to dive deep into the global macro economy. It takes around 15 minutes to flip through all the charts but readers should have a good sense of the current state of the world once they are through.
The chart pack is a supplement to MacroScope – position for long duration in bond market as 'Red' phase is here to stay, 17 September . While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators
for and drivers of the global economy.
• The global economy is at a precarious moment. While OECD leading indicators point to further downside,
PMI new orders actually picked up, driven partly by China and stabilising world trade growth.
• Geographically, the most weakness is found in euro area manufacturing, not least in German
manufacturing orders, and the US manufacturing indicators point to an industrial recession.
• The weakness is driven, in particular, by soft investments and business confidence globally, which are both at levels normally seen in G7 recessions, while corporate earnings growth is also waning or even negative in the euro area and emerging markets.
• The stalwart of the global economy so far, the confidence of private consumers has started to show weakness despite still robust real income growth. This is evident in China and to some extent US while euro area consumer confidence remains resilient.
• Monetary easing is showing up around the world: US financial conditions impulse is still positive (though waning a bit), Chinese M1 and euro area money growth have picked up. There is increasingly solid growth
in private sector loans in the euro area.
• This stimuli is important reason behind our call that the global economy will see a modest pickup next year, provided that the US-China trade war does not escalate.
Key observations
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Global overview
US
Euro
China
Japan
Other
Contents
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OECD leading indicators – levels
Global cyclical overviewGlobal cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD
Index
Link to overview page
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OECD leading indicators – monthly momentum
Global cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD
Link to overview page
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Global MacroScope models (for OECD Composite Leading Indicators – CLI)
Global cyclical overview
Source: Danske Bank
Note:
Short lead model has 1-3m lead
Medium lead model aims has 3-6m lead
Index
Link to overview page
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MacroScope medium lead models – across regions(for OECD Composite Leading Indicators – CLI)
Global cyclical overview
Source: Danske Bank
Index
Link to overview page
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Global PMI
Global cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit
Index
Link to overview page
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Container index vs PMI
Global cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, RWI, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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OECD consumer
Global cyclical overviewGlobal cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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G3 real income proxy for consumers
Global cyclical overviewGlobal cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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G3 inflation – simple model on oil
Global cyclical overviewGlobal cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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OECD capex
Global cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Profit growth
Global cyclical overview
Source: Macrobond Financial, MSCI
Link to overview page
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US
Link to overview page
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MacroScope models for US(for OECD Composite Leading Indicators – CLI)
US
Source: Danske Bank
Note:
Short lead model has 1-3m lead
Medium lead model aims has 3-6m lead
Index
Link to overview page
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MacroScope vs ISM manufacturing index
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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US surprise index
US cyclical overviewUS
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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US sector overview vs US quadrants
US
Leading indicator
1 2
3 4
100
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske Bank
Z-score
Link to overview page
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske Bank
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske BankSource: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske Bank
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US overview – level charts
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
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Yield curves vs recessions
US
2y-10y yield curve
inversion date Recession start
Recession #
of years after
inversion
30-12-1988 01-07-1990 1,5
25-05-1998 01-03-2001 2,8
26-12-2005 01-12-2007 1,9
Ave. 2,1
3m-10y yield curve
inversion date
10-11-1988 01-07-1990 1,6
13-11-1997 01-03-2001 3,3
14-12-2005 01-12-2007 2,0
Ave. 2,3
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank
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Financial conditions vs CLI change
US
Note: The Financial Conditions Impulse is based on the change over six months in mortgage yields, USD and the stock market. It differs from a Financial Conditions Index in that it looks at the change rather than level.
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg, Danske Bank
index %
Link to overview page
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Financial Conditions Impulse components
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg, Danske Bank
index
Link to overview page
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ISM manufacturing vs US demand indicator
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, ISM, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Components in demand indicator
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
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ISM vs Conference Board leading indicator
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Conference Board, ISM, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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ISM manufacturing
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, ISM, OECD
Link to overview page
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ISM manufacturing vs. US PMI manufacturing
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit,
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ISM manufacturing vs. regional surveys
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, ISM
Link to overview page
Source: Macrobond Financial, ISM
Source: Macrobond Financial, ISM Source: Macrobond Financial, ISM
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ISM service
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, ISM, OECD
Link to overview page
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Aggregate hours worked
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
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Consumer confidence
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Conference Board, Bloomberg
Link to overview page
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Consumer confidence vs CLI
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
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Small business optimism
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, ISM, NFIB
Link to overview page
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Goods consumption and ISM
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, ISM
Link to overview page
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Consumption: retail sales
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
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Consumption: car sales
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
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Real income vs goods consumption
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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US real wage growth
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Consumption: energy costs
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Consumer: wealth
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Consumer: debt cost
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
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Labour market: ISM
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, ISM
Link to overview page
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Labour market: claims
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Labour market: unemployment
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
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Labour market: employment and GDP
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
US
Link to overview page
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Labour market: participation and labour force
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
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Capex: durable goods orders
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
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Capex: Philly Fed capex outlook
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Philadelphia Fed
Link to overview page
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Capex: CEO Round Table capex outlook
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, CEO Round Table, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Capex: shipments
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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US productivity
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, Danske Bank
US
Link to overview page
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Housing: confidence
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, NAHB
Link to overview page
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Housing: home sales
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
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Housing: permits and starts
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
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Housing: permits vs mortgage rates
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, Danske Bank
Permits decline despite lower rates after financial crisis due to significant oversupply
Link to overview page
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Housing: US impulse from mortgage rates
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
![Page 58: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
58
Housing: prices
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, FHFA, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
![Page 59: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
59
Housing – affordability
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, National Association of Realtors, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
![Page 60: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
60
Credit: lending standards
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Federal Reserve
Link to overview page
![Page 61: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
61
Credit yields
US
Source: Macrobond Financial
Link to overview page
![Page 62: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
62
Public expenditure
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BEA
Link to overview page
![Page 63: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
63
Inflation – core PCE
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BEA
Link to overview page
![Page 64: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
64
Inflation – core CPI
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
![Page 65: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
65
Inflation – trimmed CPI
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, Cleveland Fed
Link to overview page
![Page 66: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
66
Headline vs core PCE inflation
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BEA
Link to overview page
![Page 67: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
67
Inflation – commodity prices vs headline
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BEA, ICE, LME
Link to overview page
![Page 68: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
68
Inflation – different wage measures
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
![Page 69: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
69
Inflation – NFIB and Employment Cost Index
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, NFIB
Link to overview page
![Page 70: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
70
Inflation – labour market tightness indicators
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, NFIB
Note : Components of labour tightness measure on next page
Link to overview page
![Page 71: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
71
Inflation – labour market tightness indicators
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS, Conference Board, NFIB
Link to overview page
![Page 72: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
72
U6 unemployment
US
Source: Macrobond Financial, BLS
Link to overview page
![Page 73: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
73
Euro
Link to overview page
![Page 74: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
74
MacroScope models
Euro
Source: Danske Bank
Note:
Short lead model has 1-3m lead
Medium lead model aims has 3-6m lead
Index
Link to overview page
![Page 75: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
75
Euro surprise index
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank
z-score
Link to overview page
![Page 76: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
76
Euro confidence vs OECD leading indicator (CLI)
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Danske Bank
Index
Link to overview page
![Page 77: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
77
German ifo vs CLI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, IFO, OECD, Danske Bank
Index Index
Link to overview page
![Page 78: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
78
Composite PMI vs CLI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, OECD, Danske Bank
Index Index
Link to overview page
![Page 79: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
79
Consumer confidence vs CLI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, EU Commission
Index Index
Link to overview page
![Page 80: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
80
Order-inventory balance vs PMI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
![Page 81: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
81
Euro leading indicator vs GDP
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, Eurostat
Link to overview page
![Page 82: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
82
Euro PMI vs GDP growth
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Eurostat
Link to overview page
![Page 83: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
83
German IP vs GDP
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bundesbank
Link to overview page
![Page 84: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
84
Euro – ZEW vs CLI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, OECD, ZEW
Link to overview page
![Page 85: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
85
Euro PMI vs China and US PMI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
![Page 86: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
86
Industrial production – level
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
Link to overview page
![Page 87: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/87.jpg)
87
German orders – level
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bundesbank
Link to overview page
![Page 88: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/88.jpg)
88
German orders – growth vs Euro PMI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Bundesbank
Link to overview page
![Page 89: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
89
GDP and demand sub-components
Euro
Link to overview page
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
![Page 90: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
90
German orders – capex level
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bundesbank
Link to overview page
![Page 91: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/91.jpg)
91
Investment growth
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
Link to overview page
![Page 92: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/92.jpg)
92
Investment level
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
Link to overview page
![Page 93: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/93.jpg)
93
Retail sales and consumer confidence
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, EU Commission, Eurostat
Link to overview page
![Page 94: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/94.jpg)
94
Retail sales – level
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
Link to overview page
![Page 95: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/95.jpg)
95
Car sales
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, ACEA
Link to overview page
![Page 96: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
96
Real income
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank, Eurostat
Link to overview page
![Page 97: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
97
Real wage growth
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat, ECB
Link to overview page
![Page 98: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/98.jpg)
98
Euro gasoline prices
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, ICE, European Commission, Eurostat
Link to overview page
Source: Macrobond Financial, ICE, European Commission, Eurostat
![Page 99: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/99.jpg)
99
Exports – PMI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Eurostat
Link to overview page
![Page 100: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/100.jpg)
100
Exports – growth
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
Link to overview page
![Page 101: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/101.jpg)
101
Exports – growth and PMI
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Eurostat
Link to overview page
![Page 102: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/102.jpg)
102
Exports – exchange rate impulse
Euro cyclical overviewEuro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bank of England
Link to overview page
![Page 103: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/103.jpg)
103
Money and GDP
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, ECB, Eurostat
Link to overview page
![Page 104: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/104.jpg)
104
Credit – loan growth
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, ECB
Link to overview page
![Page 105: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/105.jpg)
105
Credit – lending standards
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, ECB
Link to overview page
![Page 106: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/106.jpg)
106
Inflation – core vs headline
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, Eurostat
Link to overview page
![Page 107: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/107.jpg)
107
Inflation – core vs. wage inflation
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, ECB, Eurostat
Link to overview page
![Page 108: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/108.jpg)
108
Inflation – wage inflation vs unemployment
Euro
Source: Macrobond Financial, ECB
Link to overview page
![Page 109: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/109.jpg)
109
China
Link to overview page
![Page 110: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/110.jpg)
110
PMI indicator (average of Caixin and NBS)
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
![Page 111: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/111.jpg)
111
NBS vs Caixin PMI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
![Page 112: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/112.jpg)
112
Metal prices vs PMI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, LME, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
![Page 113: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/113.jpg)
113
Money growth and PMI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, People's Bank of China
Link to overview page
![Page 114: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/114.jpg)
114
Credit impulse and PMI
China
Source: Bloomberg, People's Bank of China, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
![Page 115: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/115.jpg)
115
Credit impulse momentum
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
![Page 116: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/116.jpg)
116
Exports – model
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
![Page 117: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/117.jpg)
117
Exports – currency impulse
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
![Page 118: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/118.jpg)
118
Exports – hard data and PMI export orders
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
![Page 119: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/119.jpg)
119
Electricity generation vs PMI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
![Page 120: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/120.jpg)
120
Taiwan PMI vs China PMI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
![Page 121: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/121.jpg)
121
Hong Kong PMI vs China PMI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Housing – home sales level
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Housing – home sales and household credit
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, NBS, People's Bank of China, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Housing – yields vs home sales
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, People's Bank of China, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Housing – home sales and housing starts
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Inflation – house prices
China
Source: 70-city house prices, Bloomberg
Link to overview page
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Housing – Australia exports to China vs home sales
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Consumer – retail sales
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Consumer – car sales
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, CAAM, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Profits vs PMI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Domestic vs global cycle
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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USD/CNY and CNY basket
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, People's Bank of China, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Inflation – CPI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Inflation – PPI
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Inflation – PPI model
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, NBS, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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Inflation – PMI output prices and PPI m/m
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, NBS, Danske Bank
China
Link to overview page
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M1 and industrial commodity prices
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, People's Bank of China, Danske Bank
China
Link to overview page
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Monetary policy – rates
China
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, People’s Bank of China
Link to overview page
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Japan
Link to overview page
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MacroScope models
Japan
Source: Danske Bank
Note:
Short lead model has 1-3m lead
Medium lead model aims has 3-6m lead
Index
Link to overview page
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PMI vs CLI
Japan
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, OECD
Index Index
Link to overview page
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Economy Watchers vs PMI
Japan
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, CaO
Index Index
Link to overview page
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Industrial production
Japan
Source: Macrobond Financial, MITI
Index
Link to overview page
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Consumer – retail sales
Japan
Source: Macrobond Financial, MITI
Link to overview page
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Retail sales, change
Japan
Source: Macrobond Financial, MITI
Link to overview page
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Machine orders
Japan
Source: Macrobond Financial, CaO
Link to overview page
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M2
Japan
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bank of Japan
Link to overview page
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Other
Link to overview page
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BRIC PMI
Other
Note: All axes are indices
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit
Link to overview page
Note: All axes are indices
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit
Note: All axes are indices
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit
Note: All axes are indices
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit
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China – PMI vs emerging markets
Emerging market – financial markets
Source: Macrobond Financial, Markit, Danske Bank
Link to overview page
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BRIC bond yields
Emerging market – financial markets
Source: Macrobond Financial
Link to overview page
Source: Macrobond Financial
Source: Macrobond Financial
Source: Macrobond Financial
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EMBI bond spread and emerging market equities
Source: Macrobond Financial
Emerging market – financial markets
Index
Link to overview page
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‘Fragile five’ currencies
‘Fragile five’ are the emerging market countries with the biggest imbalances in terms of fiscal and current account deficits, external debt, etc.
Emerging market – financial markets
Source: Macrobond Financial
Link to overview page
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US high yield
Other
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg
Link to overview page
![Page 155: A Tour of the Global Economy (in one chart pack) · While the MacroScope model is forward looking, this chart pack gives a an overview of key economic indicators for and drivers of](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022043001/5f7bb52d0b80ce132004eee3/html5/thumbnails/155.jpg)
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US high yield
Other
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg
Link to overview page
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US high yield vs VIX
Other
Source: Macrobond Financial, Bloomberg
Link to overview page
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Disclosures
This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank A/S ('Danske Bank'). The authors of this research report are Jakob Christensen (Chief Analyst), Allan Von Mehren (Chief Analyst), Mikael Milhøj (Senior Analyst), Piet P. H. Christiansen (Senior Analyst) and Aila Mihr (Analyst).
Analyst certification
Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report.
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Danske Bank's research reports are prepared in accordance with the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association.
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Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions.
Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report
Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors on request.
Risk warning
Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text.
Expected updates
Ad hoc.
Date of first publication
See the front page of this research report for the date of first publication.
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General disclaimer
This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank A/S. It is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) (‘Relevant Financial Instruments’).
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Report completed: 3 October 2019, 18:25 CEST Report first disseminated: 4 October 2019, 06:40 CEST