a us nopp project to stimulate wave research · 2015. 12. 22. · tolman, 6/25/2012 ecmwf workshop...

Tolman, 6/25/2012 ECMWF Workshop on Ocean Waves, 1/26

A US NOPP project tostimulate wave researchFocus on operations and deep water

Hendrik L. TolmanChief, Marine Modeling and Analysis BranchNOAA / NWS / NCEP / EMC

[email protected]


NOPP

“The National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP) is a collaboration of federal agencies to provide leadership and coordination of national oceanographic research and education initiatives. “

http://www.nopp.org/about-nopp/


Motivation

NOPP project: Improving Wind Wave Predictions; Global and Regional Scales

Considering progress in understanding of wave model physics, particularly dissipation and economical interaction approximations, Linwood, Don and Hendrik started pushing for this project after the 2008 Ocean Sciences meeting.

Buy-in from:

ONR, BOEM (was MMS) with funding.

NOAA, USACE, NRL with in-kind contributions.

Focus on operational modeling, basin and shelf scale.

Several “surf-zone” proposals also funded.


Outline

Outline of paper:

NOPP teams

Validation data.

Validation techniques.

30 year hindcast.

Code management.

Outlook.


NOPP teams

PI-s Topics Focus areas

Ardhuin in+ds Dissipation (breaking, swell, bottom)Unstructured grids in WW III.

Babanin in+ds Observations based + swell diss.

Banner in+ds Extreme conditions, explicit breaking prediction, fluxes including sea spray

Perrie nl Two-Scale Approximation.

Tim Janssen nl (shal) Combine quads & triads, field data sets.

Zakharov /Pushkarev

nl+in+ds Advanced statistical and dynamical nonlinear models + input and dissipation

Kaihatu /Sheremet

shal Traditional mud and vegitation modelsTwo-layer Boussinesq mod. Field data.

Van Vledder shal Shallow water models and obs.,including surf beats.

Hanson shal Duck data sets, spatial partitioning.


NOPP teams

Organization PIs In-kind contributions

USACE ResioSmith

FRF + Currituck Sound data.New source terms / studies (in+nl+ds)IMEDS + Additional model metricsWAM/STWAVE + ADCIRC couplingPartitioning + tracking (with NCEP)

NOAA/NCEP TolmanAlves

ChawlaV/d W.

Source terms + QS model for WW III.Code management for WW III.NOPP data server.Pre-operational testing of new ST.30 year wave hindcasts.

NRL/Stennis Rogers Campbell

Curvilinear grids in mosaic (WW III).ESMF wrapper (SWAN, WW III).Automated regression testing (WW III).Code management best practices.


Validation data

Two type of validation / data important for operational wave models. Model needs to work all the time:

Bulk long term validation / development against routine observations.

In-situ, altimeter, SAR (?).

Model needs to make physical sense.

Directed measurement campaigns focused on specific physics of waves.

Individual campaigns.

Data mining of routine observations.

Select data set types and conditions, rather than campaigns.


Validation data

Conditions Data sources

Long term validation In-situ, altimeters, SAR.

Wind Sea and Swell “JONSWAP”, Great Lakes, Lake George, SAR, Tehuantepec, Duck.Spectral partitioning of buoy data.

Non-Aligned winds Slanting fetch, Tropical cyclones (Duck, SRA, WSRA).

Extreme conditions TCs, data mining.

Diminishing winds FAIRs, data mining, tradewind and monsoon data (INCOIS, …)

Shallow water Data sets provided by teams, older bottom friction data sets.


Validation techniques

Going beyond the traditional validation

techniques used for wave models. Traditional: bulk error measures:

Mean, std, SI, r2, scatter/pdf, sometimes qq …

Event-based statistics:

Peak values, timing, shape of signal.

Spectral wave model validation:

Ridge plots identifying individual swell events.

IMEDS analysis using spectral partitioning.

For forecasting, hit-miss statistics are very important, but rarely used in scientific papers.

Use additional relevant physical parameters, mss, peakedness, etc ….


Validation techniques

Using more concise presentations.

Taylor diagram.

Variance

Correlation

Error

Target plot

Bias

Error0.

5

1

0

0.5

0

1

1

0.99

0.95

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.40.3

0.20.10

Sta

nd

ard

dev

iati

on

Co r r e l a t i on

Coe

ff

i ci e

nt

RM

S

D

Wind speed during January 2010 based on 75 buoys

A

BCDE


30 year hindcast

The Climate Forecast System (CFS) reanalysis and re-forecasting project (CFSRR) provides a 30+ year high resolution wind field 0.5° hourly wind and temperature fields.

Associated 0.5° daily ice analyses.

This data set appears ideal to be the basis of a wave reanalysis over the same 30+ year period. There is insufficient data in any period to obtain a data-

dominated analysis, therefore

It makes more sense to do a hindcast without assimilation, and use data possibly later for bias corrections of the hindcast only.

Ideal as basis for long-term validation in NOPP project.

http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsr


30 year hindcast

NH biases


30 year hindcast

NH SH

High wind speed issues with CFSR in SH


30 year hindcast

2008, Jason 1 2002, Envisat

Annual mean biases against altimeter data

Annual signal,After 2005

Persistent signalSeasonal (djf)


Code management

WAVEWATCH III community modeling

code management environment Traditionally code distributed as “tarball”, code delivered

back to NCEP the same way.

Does not work with many teams working on same code

Subversion (svn) server for version control.

Each team has code manager with access to server and latest developmental model versions thereon.

Code managers at NCEP merge individual contribution into “trunk” version of code.

Henrique, Arun, (Andre, Hendrik).

Best practices guide for community model development of WAVEWATCH III as deliverable for NOPP project. NCEP intends to maintain this environment after project is finished.


Outlook

WAVEWATCH III added capabilities: Curvilinear and unstructured grids.

Quasi-stationary model version.

New source terms.

GMD and nonlinear filter.

Two moveable bed bottom friction terms.

Ifremer physics packages.

Massively expanded output options (coupling).

Wave system tracking.

Post-processing tools:

Re-gridding.

NetCDF output.

Coupling interfaces:

ESMF.

PALM.


Snl in hurricanes

Wave height and relative error(%)

WRT G11d - WRT

G35d - WRTG13d - WRT

< 10%

≈ 20%

≈ -20%

< 15%

> 12m optimum DIA

5 x new quad3 x DIA

x


Snl in hurricanes

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.250

15

30

45

60

f (Hz)

(f )

(o)

(e)

Spectral parameters 100km behind eye(minimal wave height errors)

green: WRT dashed green: G35d blue: G13d red G11d

spectrum (2D) spectrum (1D) steepness

Snldir. spreaddirection

Tolman (2011, 2013)


Hs HsTp Tp

Raw partitioned data Spatially tracked systems

raw partitioning wave system tracking

Wave system tracking

Van der Westhuysen, Hanson and Devaliere (2013)


Outlook

In the pipeline: Spatial and temporal tracking of wave fields:

Porting internal partitioning to SWAN.

Space-time tracking (external / internal).

NCEP planning first physics upgrade in operational wave models based on NOPP project in 2012 (following slides).

NCEP planning NOPP “consensus” upgrade in 2014/5.

Replacing DIA and other “deep” source terms.

New products for SOLAS, specifically wave breaking.

Full polar coverage (tri-polar / curvilinear Artic grid).

Unstructured coastal grids (2-3 km resolution)

Upgrades shelf physics.

Multiple well performing physics packages …

Multi-physics ensembles.

Estimate of uncertainty in wave model physics.


Outlook

NCEP physics upgrade based on Ifremer results, tested with NCEP global and Great Lakes winds.

old new

biases Dec. 2009 – Feb 2010


Outlook

Monthly global errors 2009


Outlook

01/05/09 01/06/09 01/07/09 01/08/09 01/09/09 01/10/09 01/11/090

1

2

3

4

Hs

(m)

Hs Total (m), Measurements vs. st2default

0 1 2 3 40

1

2

3

4

Measured Hs (m)

WW

3H

s(m

)

0 1 2 3 40

1

2

3

4

Measured Hs (m)

WW

3H

s(m

)

Great Lakes buoy 45007, 2009 old physics


01/05/09 01/06/09 01/07/09 01/08/09 01/09/09 01/10/09 01/11/090

1

2

3

4

Hs

(m)

Hs Total (m), Measurements vs. st4t500

0 1 2 3 40

1

2

3

4

Measured Hs (m)

WW

3H

s(m

)

0 1 2 3 40

1

2

3

4

Measured Hs (m)

WW

3H

s(m

)

Outlook

Great Lakes buoy 45007, 2009 new physics


Outlook

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1

0.99

0.95

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.40.3

0.20.10

Sta

nd

ard

de

via

tio

n(n

orm

ali

zed

)

Co r r el a

ti o

n

Co

ef

fic

ie

nt

RM

S

D 0.2

0.4

0.6

00.25 00.5 00.75 01 01.25

3050

6070

80

90

95

99

Normalized STD m

/o

Co

rr e

l a

t i on

R MS D

Taylor diagram and alternative version for several GL buoys for 2009

GLERL-Donelan (1-G)WW III Tolman and Chalikov (1996)

WW III Ardhuin et al. (2010)


Conclusion

Conclusion: Making great progress toward improved operational models.

Laying ground work for community model development and modeling environment.

a us nopp project to stimulate wave research · 2015. 12. 22. · tolman, 6/25/2012 ecmwf workshop...

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