a weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and
TRANSCRIPT
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A weekly analysis of expected influences of cycles and planets on exchange rates. The
analysis is regularly supplemented with timing tools by Gann, Bayer, Bradley, and others.
Everything moves in cycles as a result of the natural law of action and reaction. By a study of
the past, I have discovered what cycles repeat in the future . . . It is not my aim to explain
the cause of cycles, the general public is not ready for it and probably would not understand
or believe it if I explained it . . . everything works according to past cycles, and that history
repeats itself in the lives of men, nations, and the stock market.
WD Gann
Weekly cyclical and astrological analysis for the period of
18 – 22 January 2010
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A look back at the past week: 11 – 15 January
Indices Last week I wrote:
The high around 7–8 (8 or 11 January in the AEX) looks set. On Monday possibly an
upward spurt, but the trend is down this week. The calculated low varies per index, with
the S&P500 in front around the 13th—also an astrological turnaround date—the DAX
around the 16th, and the FTSE100/AEX at the beginning of the following week.
After this low the trend is upward again in the direction of 26 January till the end of
January (26 January is also an astrological turnaround date).
Last Monday we rose a little but after that came a downward trend. The DAX, FTSE100 and AEX went down as expected. Delta-technically, the AEX should fall below the Tuesday low at the beginning of next week. The S&P500 was the only one to remain strong, with exchange rates starting a recovery on Tuesday and even setting a higher high on Thursday. But last Friday the fall was substantial, reaching a low beyond Tuesday's. Because of this, I have modified the prognosis somewhat in the S&P500—where I expect a double inversion—for the short term. The DAX deserves more explanation and scenario as well, as you can read. For the rest the picture in the indexes is similar.
Commodities Wheat is doing fine. Wheat has set the high last Monday and has gone down
below even the December low. The forecast, therefore, seems to come out perfectly and the
break through the December low tells us the MTD high is set. I will just leave the extra time
analysis as is for the coming weeks, and keep track of it. Soybeans have gone down too, a
little more than expected. For now we take no action but stay prepared.
And then gold, which is doing reasonably well. Last Monday a higher high, nicely in step with
the indexes; after that the fall began in the direction of 12 January as expected. It became
the 13th. It looks like there will be an inversion in the ITD after all; because of this the
forecast has been adjusted a little and in gold we therefore have the greatest change relative
to last week.
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Delta Cycle Analysis
S&P500
For last week I expected a double inversion in the ITD cycle. This has been modified, but the prognosis remains virtually the same. We are still on the way to a higher MTD7 by the beginning of February. After that a greater correction in the direction of the MTD8. The ITD11 Has been set on Thursday, 14 January, a day later than expected. At the beginning of next week we can return to the ITD12 and then rise. The ITD12 must stay above the ITD10 (1114,81), or else the MTD7 is already set. Only if we come below the light green line will the MLTD14-15/LTD5-6 still be moved. We don't expect this anymore, however. In the longer term, the trend is upward for the LTD6 to the LTD7 around the end of June. By the end of January, beginning of February, I expect an inversion in the ITD cycle (already shown). As we get closer in time, we get a better look at this.
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DAX
The ITD2 high was set on Monday 11 January, three calendar days or one trading day later
than expected. The DAX came down beautifully and has approached the 50% fibonacci level.
The DAX is the first in line to go back up. The other indexes may come down a bit more till
about 20–21 January. Something to consider in the DAX, to be sure, for the indexes usually
keep pace with one another. So as you take a position, keep an eye on the other indexes and
their prognoses.
Although things look good, I am not entirely confident, and it is possible that during the next
week we will yet see an inversion in the ITD cycle. This will be the case if we go down further
till around 26 January. The ITD4 is then the low,and ITD5 a high by early February. Next week
we'll know more. At any rate, we are placing a stop-loss on 5829, the current ITD1. If we
should go below this, the MTD6 is set (earlier), and an inversion in the ITD cycle is as good as
certain.
For the time being we assume that we are on the way to a higher MTD6 about 26 January,
and then to the still higher MTD8/MLTD3.
The long-term prognosis is upward in the direction of the LTD1, via the MLTD3 and MLTD4.
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FTSE 100
The FTSE100 is doing well also. We have to be careful, since a possible inversion in ITD cycle
may be approaching. I think we will not go through an inversion, but if we do, it will be a
double inversion.
This week we may go down a little more to place the ITD1/MTD5 around 20 January, and
then up to the MTD6 around 19 February.
We are in an upward trend from the MLTD2 toward the MLTD3 around 16–19 March.
The long-term trend, after placement of the LTD12 is rising to the LTD1 around the end of
June. The TD11/12 may also be placed with the MLTD24/(24), but that makes no difference
in the prognosis, unless we end up under the MLTD2 or MLTD(24), but we are not there yet,
and certainly do not expect this.
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AEX
In the AEX the MTD18 was set last Monday, and we have come down nicely. By the
beginning of next week we may come down a little more, and as a matter of fact, we will
have to get to just under the low of 12 January (334,97) to place the ITD3 around 19 January.
We are on our way to a higher MLTD19.
Because we will have three higher MTD highs/lows from the MLTD18 to the MTD2, we
assume an MLTD19 high that coincides with the MTD2. This would mean that the MLTD high
will not agree with the MLTD high in the other indexes around 7–11 March, and the indexes
will diverge somewhat.
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Wheat Delta (future maart 2010)
The goal for wheat is a lower MLTD10/LTD6 in
February/March. The MTD2 was set immediately this past
Monday, and not around 15 January. That also works better
with the time analysis on the next page.
Saturday 16 January is an important astrological date for
grains. At this point Mercury will begin to "run direct" again. I
assume, therefore, that the low has been well placed, and that
next week we can correct in the direction of the ITD4 around
26 January.
On the next page the wheat time analysis starting 10 January,
which we will follow in the near future.
Mercury affects grain
prices. The arrows on
top (pink-blue-pink)
indicate the times when
Mercury begins to run
retrograde, as well as
the exact midpoint in
between.
The orange arrows
indicate the times at
which Mercury moves
fastest.
We take note of these
times, especially during
highs and lows, or when
exchange rate
movement accelerates.
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Extra time analysis for Wheat (10 January)
The analysis below is from 10 January, and I will let it stand for the next few weeks. We will
follow its progress. The latest high is on 11 January, and the downtrend has started.
Above are five periods of 90 calendar days (CD), which we have used before, with 31 August
as a special date. On the basis of time relationships and fibonacci I expect and important low
around 1 March.
The Gann Wheel shows
the latest highs/lows,
with 1 March forming a
square with the June
and December highs,
and 30–31 August the
midpoint between these
two highs and 61.8%
from the 6 January high
to the 1 June high.
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Soybeans Delta (future March 2010)
We have nearly arrived at the ITD2 we expected to be lower.
Better wait to trade till the MTD12 has been set, also because
there may be an inversion in the ITD, and there may be an
extra ITD(1) between the ITD1 and ITD2. In that case the ITD2
becomes a high instead of a low. That is still a possibility.
The ITD1 should actually not have risen above the ITD11. This
has to do with the future bill of exchange. I am leaving the
MTD11/MTD12 alone for the time being. If it works out, they
may move to the ITD12/ITD1. It makes no difference in the
forecast.
According to seasonal trends for soybeans, they often rise a
little bit from mid-January to the end of February, in contrast
to wheat.
For now avoid soybeans until we know if there is an inversion
in the ITD cycle, and where the MTD12 and MLTD11 are going
to be set.
Mercury affects grain
prices. The arrows on
top (pink-blue-pink)
indicate the times when
Mercury begins to run
retrograde, as well as
the exact midpoint in
between.
The orange arrows
indicate the times at
which Mercury moves
fastest.
We take note of these
times, especially during
highs and lows, or when
exchange rate
movement accelerates.
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Gold (COMEX) Delta
The recent course of the exchange has prompted me to
assume an inversion of the ITD cycle after all. The
MLTD15 low will then better tally with the expected
Jupiter turning point. The next two astrological turning
points will then also be in agreement.
Next week I will take another look at the November
analysis and the Jupiter turning points. There is still a
small possibility that last week's scenario will come about.
This means no inversion in the ITD cycle and an ITD4 high
around 20-–22 January.
But right now we assume a lower ITD4 around 20–22
January, which has to come below last Wednesday's low
(1118,50).
The question is whether the MLTD15 turns out lower than
the MLTD13. That is only a matter of price. If so, the LTD6
willl be placed a bit later.
Turning Points
Date
9-1 (high)
20-22/1 (low)
1-3/2 (high)
15-17/2
27/2 – 4/3
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Astro Analysis: XSpect indicator
The XSpect trend is directed upward for t he long term, but downward
between August 2009 and June 2010, in the direction of November–February,
where we are drawn astrologically. Nevertheless, the exchange rate will keep
going higher, and that is a strong sign. After February the powers go upward
again toward June 2010. In between we see a number of lows, which we must
take into account.
The next important point is 26-1.
Turning Points
Date
26-1
7-2
20-2
The Xspect is an
indicator of an
astrologically
moving average
based on the
aspects and
movements of the
planets. These are
comparable to a
Bradley graph, but
I am convinced
this one is much
better. Unlike
with Bradley, we
can also look at
the trend, but
only long-term
(years). The
smaller wave
movements show
turning points;
the specific dates
appear in the
chapter “Turning
Points.”
Note: This
indicator applies
only to the
indices, not to the
commodities!
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Planet speed
Usually, around the turning point in the
blue/orange line there is also a turning point in
the exchange rate, especially in the orange
speed line. I will shortly show some historical
graphs again to demonstrate this. But what to
think of the latest turning points?
The total mean speed of the moon through
Neptune was highest on 27 December, and
then decreased.
The blue squares with the turning points,
including the ultimate and penultimate swing
represent the time span where the major
highs/lows are found. Amore important high
may be nearby and a following low as well,
between 20 January and 6 March.
This graph shows the speed of specific planets.
As soon as a planet, as seen from the earth,
stops momentarily and begins to run
retrograde, its speed is also shown in reverse in
the graph. Therefore the highs are flipped over,
as it were, revealing the moments at which a
planet begins to run retrograde and reverse
itself again. In addition, the 50% moment
between retrograde and direct becomes visible
as well. This can be seen in the orange line with
the combined speed of Jupiter–Pluto.
At these moments—retrogade, direct, and the
midpoint between—remarkable lows and highs
sometimes occur, and they may be volatile
points in time.
The blue line represents the combined speeds
of the moon, the sun, and Mercury through
Pluto.
Note: These moments apply to indices as well
as to commodities.
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Conclusion and trading advice
Indices
By the beginning of next week around 20 January a
low in the indexes. After that upward toward 1–3
February.
Few astrological links can be established for the
moment.
The DAX deserves extra clarification. It retains 26
January as a high; 26 January is also an astrological
turning point. Is an inversion in the ITD cycle still
possible, and does the 26th become a low,
creating better agreement with the other indexes?
A deviation, therefore, from the other indexes—so
pay attention.
S&P500
Goal: Upward toward the MTD7 by the beginning
of February.
This week: We probably start a little lower this
week and then bounce back toward the ITD1 in
the beginning of February.
DAX
Goal: Upward toward the MTD6 around 26
January.
This week: We probably start a little lower at the
beginning of this week and then bounce back
toward the ITD4 at the beginning of February.
Note: If we should go below 5829,64, the low will
come later and the ITD4 becomes a low. Upward
after that toward the beginning of February.
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FTSE100
Goal: Up toward the MTD6 around 20 February.
This week: Down toward the ITD1 around 20
January. Then up toward beginning of February.
AEX
Goal: Up toward the MTD2 around31 January.
This week: Down toward the ITD3 around 19
January. Then up toward beginning of February.
Wheat
Goal: Down toward the MTD3 around 5 February.
This week: Up toward the ITD4 around 26
January.
Soybeans
Goal: Down toward the MTD13 around the end of
February.
This week: Down a little toward 20 January. Then
up toward the end of January. Avoid soybeans for
now (see analysis).
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Gold
Goal: Down toward the MTD5 around 1 March.
This week: Down toward the ITD4 around 20
January. Then up toward the ITD5 around 1
February.
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Appendix
Delta
The Delta analysis in this report is based on the Delta analysis of Wellis Wilder & Jim Slogan.
Actually, this analysis is based on astrology, and reflects a calculated average of astrological
cycles. Like WD Gann, we first look at the long-term cycles, and then at the smaller cycles, or
“wheels within wheels.”
In every law of nature there is a major and a minor; a positive, a negative, and a neutral.
Therefore, in cycles there must be a lesser, a greater, and an intermediate cycle, or cycles
within cycles.
Like Ezekiel says: “Wheel within a wheel."
THE TUNNEL THRU THE AIR, WD GANN
Colors used
The following colors were used per time frame.
Intermediate-Term Delta = ITD = blue
Medium-Term Delta = MTD = red
Medium-Long-Term Delta = MLTD = black
Long-Term Delta = LTD = purple
Super-Long-Term Delta = SLTD = green
Question marks after numbers
A question mark after a number indicates that the placement of that moment is not yet
definite. We proceed on that assumption, of course, but an adjustment may follow. This
occurs especially with inversions, where the calculation of a certain time frame at times goes
through a period of uncertainty. When this happens, an extra end number and/or a 1 may
be inserted. The greater the cycle or time frame, the greater the Delta, and therefore the
chance that number will be moved. Trading in a period of inversion is usually not to be
recommended until we have placed number 2.
Why the S&P, FTSE, DAX and AEX
The S&P500 is analyzed because it involves a broad index, which suits Delta very well. The
Dow Jones for instance, with only 30 shares, is less uitable for a Delta analysis, which will be
a little less reliable. The AEX, also with only +/- 30 shares, also has this slightly
disadvantageous effect, but of course, our own index as well as the German DAX should be
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included. To support the DAX/AEX (read European) Delta analysis I have included the English
FTSE100 (with a mix of 102 shares).
Why wheat and soybeans
Wheat is a grain, and an absolutely vital commodity, according to archaeologists probably
the first product cultivated and traded by man. Wheat is the second most produced
agricultural product in the world on the basis of volume, behind corn and before rice.
Soybeans are legumes, which serve as the raw material for many soy products. Most
soybeans are converted to soybean oil. Soybean oil is the most-consumed vegetable oil
worldwide.
According to WD Gann, speculation in commodities is more profitable than speculation in
shares/indices, because you trade something that is essential to life. Commodities follow the
laws of supply and demand, and usually follow seasonal trends. That is the reason why
these very important commodities are included in this report. I also always look at—and
take into account—seasonal trends as shown by my own research and that of WD Gann.
Large profits in the grain market are made by following the main trend, and avoiding
changing position or taking the profit until the market indicates that trends are changing. We
are going to apply WD Gann’s rules, in combination with Delta.
Wheat and soybean trade is based on future contracts. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT,
www.cbot.com), as the best-known exchange, offers these contracts, but they can also be
traded very well via a turbo. When American markets are open, you can find clear graphs on
www.cbot.com, shown with a short delay.
Note: The existing turbos go along with the prices in this report nearly 1 to 1. I use the
following rule: I take the price of the first running contract month, and 21 days before it ends
I roll it over to the next higher contract month(RBS/ABN does this also, and takes at least 10
days for this). WD worked the same way. This will probablyy always lead to a (small) rise in
the exchange rates at the moment of rollover. The price of a turbo will not be influenced,
but the level of financing will be adapted to the price difference between the two turbos,
and the stoploss can be adjusted.
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