Risks & Opportunit

iesA World in A World in FermentFermentLife

onPlanet Earth

Planet EarthBYA

4.5 Earth is bornEarth grew from a cloud of dust and rocks. Eventually rocks were massive enough to attract other rocks with the force of gravity, becoming the Earth

3.5 Origin of lifeOldest confirmed fossils of single-celled microorganisms

3.4 Photosynthesis emerges

3.0 Plate techtonics large plates of rock move and collide

2.4 OxidationOxygen is released into the atmosphere

2.0 Complex cells begin to appear

Planet EarthMYA

1,000? Multicellular life

850-635 A frozen world

535 Cambrian explosion Animal species of all kinds appear within tens of millions of years

465 Plants colonise the land

460-430 Ice age leads to 1st mass extinction

375 Animal species walk on land

325 Dawn of the reptiles

300 Earth’s plates combineinto one landmass

Big Mass Extinctions

Mass extinctions = periods in Earth's history when abnormally large numbers of species die out within a relatively short time frame

MYA Mass Extinction Scale of extinction

Milestones in Human Evolution

Years Ago Event

2 million – 10,000 Most recent ice age

1.8 million – 10,000 PLEISTOCENE AGE

1.8 million – 200,000 Homo erectus exist

1 million – 500,000 Homo erectus tame fire

500,000 – 100,000 Lower Palaeolithic (Old Stone Age)

300,000 Geminga formed in supernova explosion (almost as bright as the Moon)

200,000 – 30,000 Homo sapiens neanderthalensis150,000 – present Homo sapiens sapiens – HUMAN ERA

Evolutionary JourneyKey Features

The human species, like all other species, is engaged in a perpetual challenge-response dynamic:

ADAPTING TO A CONSTANTLY CHANGING ENVIRONMENT

Some responses prove adaptive, others maladaptive

Test of adaptation is “reproductive efficiency” = capacity to keep on reproducing over the long-term.

Adaptiveness can be clearly evaluated only after the event.

Only outcome that is beyond dispute is extinction.

Evolutionary JourneyKey Features

Our planet and all life on it have evolved though an endless series of small, almost imperceptible changes.

BUT at given moments, which we call thresholds [TRANSITIONS], change gathers pace and intensity, as a result of which it can be said that we move from one epoch (or age) to another.

What is true of evolution as a whole is true of human evolution, but with one important difference – one additional layer of complexity:

H E = biological inheritance x cultural inheritance within a changing environmental context

Milestones in Human Evolution

Years Ago Event

100,000 – 40,000 Middle Palaeolithic 100,000 – 50,000 Probable appearance of human language

60,000 – 40,000 Homo sapiens enter Australia

40,000 – 10,000 Upper Palaeolithic (Late Stone Age)25,000 – 10,000 Most recent glaciation20,000 Homo sapiens paint the Altamira Cave

12,000 – present Neolithic [Holocene age]12,000 Homo sapiens domesticate dogs in Iraq12,000 – 10,000 Agriculture is established in the Near East 10,000 First permanent homo sapiens settlements10,000 Fire used to cast copper & harden pottery5,200 Writing (cuneiform) is developed in Sumeria

Making Sense of the Human Predicament

Ecological Perspective

THE ANTHROPOCENE

Some argue: Human activity has fundamentally changed the planet we have entered a new geological epoch – the Anthropocene

Humans have directly affected <83% of planet’s viable land surfaceThey have impacted everything:

ofrom the makeup of ecosystems to the geochemistry of the Earth

ofrom the atmosphere to the oceans.

Making Sense of the Human Predicament

Ecological Perspective

Visual representation of geological time

Making Sense of the Human Predicament

Ecological PerspectiveTHE ANTHROPOCENE

Disagreement about its origins – When did this epoch begin?

Some say: It is impossible to know – or too early to tell

Others: Anthropocene began with the advent of agriculture

Others still: Since the Industrial Revolution

Yet others: After World War II: the Great Acceleration

Making Sense of the Human Predicament

Ecological PerspectiveGLOBAL WARMING

Making Sense of the Human Predicament

Ecological PerspectiveGREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

Making Sense of the Human Predicament

Ecological Perspective

Making Sense of the Human Predicament

Governance PerspectiveHuman evolution cannot, however, be understood just in terms of environmental change & the ecological impact of human activity

To understand our current predicament we must have a sense of the road we’ve travelled over several thousand years

We need to revisit the way human societies have evolved culturally, how they have organised themselves – economically and politically – over time [= GOVERNANCE]

Only by doing this can we better understand where we currently find ourselves, and where we might be heading.

Making Sense of the Human Predicament

Governance PerspectiveOver time, human organisation has become increasingly complex:

From the prehistoric band band of foragers (numbering a few dozen)

To the tribe tribe (a few hundred)

To the chiefdom chiefdom (a few thousand)

To the statestate (often over 50,000)

But there is more to complexity than size and demography

Making Sense of the Human Predicament

Governance PerspectiveOver time more complex societies involve:

more intensive forms of food production

greater specialisation & division of labour

more elaborate patterns of exchange

more hierarchical forms of decision making

more elaborate bureaucratic structures

Moe centralised coercive institutions

Making Sense of the Human Predicament

Governance Perspective Rise of agricultural settlements (10,000 – 3,500 BCE)

– first in Middle East and Asia

Early complex societies (3,500 – 2,000 BCE) – Mesopotamia, Egypt, India, China – Axial Age

Ancient civilisations (2,000 – 800 BCE) – powerful imperial states in Mesopotamia, Egypt, China

Classical civilisations (800 BCE – 200 CE) – Greece, Rome, China

Post classical empires (200 – 1,100 CE) – Byzantium, Abbasid empire in ME, Tang empire in China

Making Sense of the Human Predicament

Governance PerspectiveMODERN EPOCHMODERN EPOCH

Pro Modern PeriodPro Modern Period late 11th century to middle of 16th century

Early Modern periodEarly Modern period middle of 16th century to late 18th century

Late Modern periodLate Modern period late 18th to middle of 20th century

Making Sense of the Human Predicament

Governance PerspectiveLATE MODERN PERIOD

sees the rise of the

modern

industrialsovereign

(liberal-democratic)national

STATESTATE