aam cost modeling strategy - pricesystems.com · • developed as part of the vlc rotorcraft cost...
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© 2020 PRICE Systems, L.L.C. All Rights Reserved© 2020 PRICE Systems, L.L.C. All Rights Reserved
Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) and Ecosystem Cost Modeling Strategy
PRICE® Research
Webinar
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Cost Analytics
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Today’s Presenter
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Dr. Nate SirirojvisuthSenior Cost Research Analyst
• 15-year experience in rotorcraft multidisciplinary design and optimization
• Leads the Rotorcraft team and PRICE® Research with a focus on economics, model building, data analytics, technology valuation, technology readiness assessment, and lifecycle affordability engineering
• Presenter for eVTOL/UAM/AAM conventions and events
• PhD degree in Aerospace Engineering from Georgia Institute of Technology.
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Overview
• AAM/UAM market and opportunity
• The need for cost analytics
• TruePlanning® Live Demo
• Summary
• Q&A
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Disruptive Technologies in Vertical Flight
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Growth in Urban Sprawl
US 2019:$88 billion direct lost
$74 billion indirect lost
Boston 2019:20 workdays in traffic
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Fulfilling Market Opportunities in UAM/AAM
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Artist's impression of the urban airspace. Image
courtesy NASA/Advanced Concepts Laboratory
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Multidisciplinary Formulation
❑ Ridership Demand
❑ Travel pattern
❑ Congestion
❑ Service catchment
❑ Aviation
infrastructure
❑ Demographics
❑ Mass transit
locations
❑ Airspace routing
❑ Weather
❑ MRO
❑ Etc.
o On-demand air taxi
o Chartered flight
o Airport shuttle
o Cargo service
o Tourism and
entertainment
o Fire/police/search
rescue
o Etc.
Choice Model: Concept of Operations:
Geomatics/GIS: Scenarios:
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AAM community lacks
cost analytic rigor and economic
analysis framework for engineers.
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Cost Analytics
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Rotorcraft Catalog
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Development Background
• RC 1.0 (2015)
• Developed as part of the VLC Rotorcraft Cost Modeling Collaboration Project and is accessible only to VLC members.
• Addresses total ownership cost elements.
• Integrates with Model Based Engineering (MBE) tools such as Phoenix Integration ModelCenter.
• Capable of estimating new rotorcraft concepts and advanced technologies.
• Enables the type of analysis needed to aid decision-makers.
• RC 2.0 (2017)
❖ Included additional data collection (public domain) and analysis to improve accuracy through performance-based adjustment factor.
❖ A new PRICE Systems’ catalog and be available for customers outside VLC
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Rotorcraft 3.0
• Same estimating algorithm and cost drivers
• Flexible Structure‒ Partial product
structure
‒ Multi-level indentation
‒ Mix-and-match cost objects
‒ Convert to hardware/hardware lifecycle/common elements model
• Exposed CERs ‒ Allow data-driven
adjustment of cost drivers
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Rotorcraft Cost Drivers
• Group Weights/Component Weights
• Type (Helicopter, Tiltrotor, Coaxial Compound, Tilt-wing)
• Military vs. Commercial Application
• Percent New Design
• Advanced Technology Considerations
• Subsystem-specific Options‒ Materials
‒ Number of Main/Tail Rotor Blades
‒ Number of Engines
‒ HUMS Type
‒ FADEC Installation? Yes/No
‒ Etc.
• O&S Ground Rules and Assumptions
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Multi-fidelity structure
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• Flexible Product Breakdown Structure
• Mix-and-match cost object
• Support multi-fidelity estimation
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Data-driven Calibration
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Industrial Facility Model for Vertiport
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Model Scope
• Provide method to estimate construction and sustainment:‒ Construction cost based on DoD Facility Pricing Guide
• Categorized $/size unit calculations
‒ Adhere to FAA and government regulations
• Estimate the costs associated with different “vertiplaces”
• Create defendable ROM estimate for facilities:‒ Address major structures
• Helipad
• Control Towers
• Recharge Stations
• Power
• Parking
• Passenger Terminal
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Image courtesy: Infrastructure barriers to the
elevated future of mobility, Deloitte, May 2019
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Cost Elements and Sizing
• Location factor
• Layout‒ Terminal building area requirements
‒ FAA guidance for FATO and TLOF area
‒ Passenger gate area requirement
‒ Taxiway
• Lighting and signage
• Electrical power requirements‒ Transformers
‒ Power unit
‒ Switchboard
‒ Power line
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TruePlanning® DEMO
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Power BI Integration
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Concluding Remarks
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• Aviation industry is undergoing a transformation
• Market opportunities can only be fulfilled at the right price
• AAM community lacks rigorous cost analytic capability
• PRICE Cost Analytics™ suite can close the gap in the analysis‒ Subject matter expertise in cost analytics
‒ Data-driven estimate
‒ Specialized model development
‒ Model-based Integration
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www.pricesystems.com