ACCC Project, 2010

Water Resources under the

changing climate and adaptation

Dr. Guoqing WANG / 王国庆教授

Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, MWR

Research Center for Climate Change, MWR

南京水利科学研究院

March 5, 2010, Beijing

—— 气候变化对水资源的影响及适应

Observed Changes / 观测到的气候变化

Assessment model / 气候变化影响评价模型

Effect Assessment for Water / 水资源影响评价

Adaptative strategies / 气候变化的适应对策

Scientific Issues / 需进一步研究的科学问题

Contents

Global Temperature / 全球气温变化

Global annual mean temperature: +0.74℃ / 年均气温升高0.74

The warmest decade: 1990s / 20 世纪 90 年代是最热的 10 年Recent 11 years rank among the 12 warmest years / 1860 年以来最热的 12 年有 11 年发生在 1995～ 2006

Temperature change in China / 中国气温变化

Similar rising trend to global temperature / 趋势与全球相似Temperature rise during the last 100yrs: 0.5~0.8℃ / 近 100年气温升高 0.5~0.8 ℃

Rising rate during the last 50yrs: 0.22 /10a / ℃ 近 50 年气温平均升率 0.22 /10a ℃

Precipitation change in China （降水变化）

Trend ratios of precipitation during 1951-2002

Western: Increase 西部增加Southern: Increase 南部增加

Increasing

Decreasing

Decreasing

Increasing

Northern: Decrease 北部减少Northeastern: Decrease东北减少

Changes in 60mins rainfall before and after 1980

Changes of extreme rainstorm events / 暴雨变化

Short duration rainfall intensity: Increasing / 暴雨强度增加 Kuanping, Shanxi: 1998.07， 1300mm/6-7hr Zhanjiang, Guangdong: 2007.08， 1188mm/24hr Rain

days of extreme rainstorms: Increasing / 极端降水日数增加

Trend rate of rain days of extreme rainstorms

667mm

118mm35mm

84%

12%4%

Annual runoff depth: 288mm 年径流深 288mmSurface water: 2737.5bm3

地表径流量： 2737.5bm3

Water Resources in China / 中国水资源

Mountain Areas （山丘区）

Plain areas（平原

区）

Overlap: 31.8 bm3

176.5 bm3

677.2 bm3

Ground water: 821.9bm3

地下径流量： 821.9bm3

82%18%

Characteristics of WR / 水资源特点

Uneven distribution in time and space/ 时空分布不均 : 80%

Low water occupation per capita/ 人均水资源量低： < 30%

Serious shortage： 400/668 cities ， 水资源严重短缺 : Gap=40bm3, in Normal Year

Huge losses due to flooding and drought / 洪涝、干旱灾害损失巨 大： >GDP1％

多年平均降水量

Spatial distribution

空间分布

Temporal distribution

时间分布

Water Issues in China / 四大水问题

Flooding / 水多 Decreasing / 水少

Polluting / 水脏 Losing / 水混

1.9 3.7 9.1 7.6-0.8

-3.2

-33

-55.5

-4.8

-61.2

-40.1

-62.2

-30.9

-2.5 -2.2

-0.9-0.9

-77.9-76.6-80

-60-40-20

020

宜昌

汉口

大通

唐乃亥

花园口

利津

王家坝

吴家渡

观台

石匣里

响水堡

下会

张家坟

铁岭

江桥

哈尔滨

梧州

石角

竹歧

控制站

距平

(%)

黄河 海河

Changes in Recorded Runoff / 实测径流变化

Significant decreasing : Haihe River, Yellow River

显著减少：海河，黄河Slight changing: other rivers

轻微变化：其它河流

Decreasing rate of runoff during 1980-2004 comparing to that before 1980

Global Warming

Hydrological cycle

Sustainable utilization

Changes in rainfall

Climate change and Hydrological cycle气候变化与水文循环

（水资源的可持续利用）

Observed Changes / 观测到的气候变化

Assessment model / 气候变化影响评价模型

Effect Assessment for Water / 水资源影响评价

Adaptative strategies / 气候变化适应对策

Scientific Issues / 需进一步研究的科学问题

Contents

National Key Project (85-913-03-03 )

Social econom

ic datab

ase

Tributaries GCMs

Random weather model

Water balance models

Assessment system of water

Effect assessment

Adaptation measures

Hyd

ro-m

eteo

rolo

gic

Dat

abas

e

Study Catchments/ 研究区域：Tributaries of six big rivers

Assessment Models/ 评价模型 : Lumped Water Balance

Models / 集总式水量平衡模型

Assessment / 评价 : The future water

resources, based on outputs of 7

GCMs

Sub-area1

0

10

20

30

40

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968Time/month

Ru

no

ff/m

m

National Key Project (96-908-03-04 )

GCMs or RCM

（60km×60km）

Downscaling of P and T (30km×30km)

30km×30km grid based hydrological model

Spatial distribution and simulated discharge

Sensitivity analysis

GIS

database

Hydro

-meteorologic database

Study basins / 研究区域 : 4 big river basins

Assessment Models / 评价模型 : 30×30km grid based hydrologic

model

Assessment / 评价 : sensitivity analysis

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-20 -10 0 10 20

DP(%)

DR

(%)

- 2℃

- 1℃

0℃

1℃

2℃

P EP

Extension WaterWm , B

R

Free water storage, Sm

Rapid Q, Cs Slow Q, Cg

Discharge Q

E

Xin’anjiang Model新安江模型

Simplified model structure

5 parameters / 5 个参数Applied to Huaihe River / 应用到淮河流域

B

Wmm

Wm

F

f)

1(1

Wm

Wmm’

Wm’

f/F1

W0

P

Two Parameters Water Balance Model两参数水量平衡模型

P EP

Q

E SOIL MOISTURESOIL MOISTURE

Humid river basins / 湿润地区Hanjiang River, Gangjiang River / 汉江和赣江流域DC>80%

))(/)(tanh()()( tEPtPtEPctE

)/))()()1(tanh(())()()1(()( SCtEtPtStEtPtStQ

P T

Rain/Snow

EP

Snowfall

Rainfall

Accu-

SRunoff

SMRunoff

GFlow Soil moisture

Q

E

Snowmelt-based WBM考虑融雪的水平衡模型

Semi-arid or arid river basins / 干旱半干旱流域Consider snowmelt flow / 考虑融雪径流

ii

ssi PS

SKQ

max

1

iTT

TT

snsni SneKQ LH

Hi

1 iggi SKQ

mm

m

d IPII

PIWWP

IPIWWP

Q0

1

0max00

0max

00

11

max

22max

2221

max2221

WWWWWWdWd

WWWWdQ

SS

Sb

Study area: China 研究区域：中国 Assessment Model： VIC Assessment：

vulnerability

National Key Project (2001-BA611B-02-04)

GIS-based distributed hydrological model / 基于 GIS 的分布式水文模型Relationship between parameters and catchment indices / 下垫面要素Hydrological modeling for poorly gauged river basins / 无资料地区的应用

Flow generation ：

Flow concentration ：

b

t

CAL

P

LP

S

LLaT

Tq

DTT

P67.26.3

A2

2/

洪峰大小：

洪峰时间：b

t

CAL

P

LP

S

LLaT

Tq

DTT

P67.26.3

A2

2/

洪峰大小：

洪峰时间：

Key Technology1： PUB关键技术：缺资料地区的水文模拟

Auto-optimization combining experts knowledge / 数学自动优化与专家知识结合Simulation accuracy and optimization efficiency / 模拟精度与优化效率

X2

X(1)

X(0)

X(2)

A

X(3)

Rosenbrock method

X1

1...22

...............

2...22

2...12

2...21

)0()0()0()0(

)0(3

)0(3

)0(3

)0(3

)0(2

)0(2

)0(2

)0(2

)0(1

)0(1

)0(1

)0(1

dxdxdxx

dxdxdxx

dxdxdxx

dxdxdxx

nnnn

单纯形法

Key technology2： Parameters optimization关键技术：参数优化识别技术

Key technology3： downscaling关键技术：情景降尺度技术

Two statistical approaches / 两种统计降尺度途径

Double linear interpolation method / 双线性降尺度插值方法

Non-linear Lagrange interpolation method / 不等距拉格朗日三点插值方法

Similar temperature fields before and after downscaling from RCMS

Baseline Human-disturbedHuman-disturbed

Key technology 4: Contribution identification关键技术：径流归因识别技术

Two key issuesDetermination of baseline / 基准期的确定 : Cluster analysis method, Mann-Kendall method, etc Runoff naturalized method / 天然径流还原方法 : Hydrological simulation approach, VIC model, WB model

BHRT WWW

HNHRH WWW

BHNC WWW

%100

T

HH W

W

%100

T

CC W

W

Observed Changes / 观测到的气候变化

Assessment model / 气候变化影响评价模型

Effect Assessment for Water / 水资源影响评价

Adaptative strategies / 气候变化的适应对策

Scientific Issues / 需进一步研究的科学问题

Contents

Assessment approach 气候变化影响评价途径

Horizontally integrated

Verticallyintegrated

Assessment / 评价 Model

Impacts

Adaptation / 适应 Policy

Technology

Projected

Scenario / 情景 Projected

Hypothetical

More environmental侧重环境保护

More regional侧重区域

More global侧重全球

B1 B2

A1 A2

More economic侧重经济发展

Climate Scenario / 气候情景模式

( IPCC AR4, 2007 )

6.4℃

1.1℃

Temperature rise: 1.1－ 6.4 / ℃ 21 世纪末气温升高 1.1－ 6.4

Warmer globe / 一个更加温暖的地球

Temperature trends in 21th Century21 世纪全球气温变化趋势

Possible climate change in China21 世纪我国可能的气候变化

Precipitation： Increase in most areas, Decrease in Northern

China and North-eastern China before 2040 / 大多数地区降水增加，但华北和东北可能减少Temperature / 气温变化： 2030， 1.7℃； 2050， 2.2℃

Probability of flood and drought hazards would increase / 洪涝干旱灾害可能增加 The pattern of south-flood and north-drought would aggravate.

A2

s

cen

ario

Change in runoff distribution under the scenario A2

2071-2100年 A2 情景下的径流分布变化

Projected water resources distribution未来水资源分布变化

• Similar to that under scenario A2, exacerbating the instability of water

system / B2 情景下的水资源类似 A2 ， 水资源系统可能更加不稳定

Change in runoff distribution under the scenario B2

2071-2100年 B2 情景下的径流分布变化

B2

sce

nario

Projected water resources distribution未来水资源分布变化

Sensitivity / 敏感性Sensitivity of hydrology to climate change is response degree

of hydrological variable to climate change. High response under

the same climate change means more sensitive to climate change

Cold region： Yilihe River

高寒山区：伊犁河Semi-arid region： Yellow

R

半干旱区：黄河

Semi-humid region： Huai

R

半湿润区：淮河Humid region： Dongjiang

R

湿润区：东江

Study basin研究流域

Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性

T RISE: increases Spring discharge, decreases runoff in other seasons 气温升高降增加春季径流，减少其它季节径流量

Surface runoff: more sensitive to climate change 地表径流对气候变化更为敏感

Human activities: could decrease sensitivity of runoff 人类活动能够在一点程度上降低水资源对气候变化的敏感性

Yilihe River伊犁河

Yellow River黄河

Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

降水变化(%)

径流量变化(

%)

-3℃ -2℃ -1℃

0℃ +1℃ +2℃

+3℃

Precipitation change: result in larger runoff change than T does

对降水变化比对温度变化的响应更为敏感Same change range: P+ result in larger runoff change than P-

降水增加比减少对径流的影响更显著Arid region: more sensitive; while humid region less

干旱区对气候变化响应比湿润区更敏感

Huaihe River淮河

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

降水变化(%)

径流量变化(

%)

-3℃ -2℃ -1℃

0℃ +1℃ +2℃

+3℃

Dongjiang River东江

Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性

Sensitivity comparison of Hydro-variables不同水文变量敏感性比较

Response Law： similar between actual evaporation and soil moisture

实际蒸发和土壤湿度对气候变化的响应规律类似 P changes： Runoff, actual evaporation, soil moisture, (bigger->less)

径流、蒸发和土湿对降水变化的响应依次降低 T changes： Soil moisture, runoff, actual evaporation, (bigger->less)

土湿、径流和实际蒸发对气温变化的响应依次降低

大夏河

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

降水变化(%)

径流量变化

(mm

)

-3℃ -2℃ -1℃

0℃ +1℃ +2℃

+3℃

大夏河年均值

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

降水变化(%)土壤含水量变化

(mm

)

-3℃ -2℃ -1℃

0℃ +1℃ +2℃

+3℃大夏河年均值

-40

-20

0

20

40

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

降水变化(%)

实际蒸发量变化

(mm

)

-3℃ -2℃ -1℃

0℃ +1℃ +2℃

+3℃

RUNOFF

径流

SOIL MOISTURE

土壤湿度

ACTUAL EVAPORATION

实际蒸发

Human activities are main reasons of runoff reduction in YR

人类活动是径流减少的主要原因Contribution of Climate change accounts for 39 ％

气候变化影响占径流减少总量的 39 ％

Identification of CC contribution (YRB)气候变化对径流历史变化的贡献评价

PeriodsReco-ed(108m3)

Simu-ed(108m3)

Total redu(108m3)

Climate-induced Human-induced

108m3 (%) 108m3 (%)

Baseline 237.5 　 　 　 　

1970-1979 148.5 198.5 89.0 39.0 43.82 50.0 56.18

1980-1989 172.7 217.6 64.8 19.9 30.67 44.9 69.33

1990-2000 95.3 181.1 142.2 56.4 39.64 85.8 60.36

1970-2000 138.8 199.5 98.7 38.0 38.53 60.6 61.47

Observed Changes / 观测到的气候变化

Assessment model / 气候变化影响评价模型

Effect Assessment for Water / 水资源影响评价

Adaptative strategies / 气候变化的适应对策

Scientific Issues / 需进一步研究的科学问题

Contents

Climate Change, IWRM and Resilience

气候变化与水资源一体化管理

Many climate change impacts are just extreme examples of existing challenges. / 气候变化的影响只是目前水资源压力基础上的极端情形

Water resources are already stressed due to economic growth, population pressure and lifestyles.

Many challenges not new, nor product of climate change alone. / 目前水资源短缺不是气候变化单一作用的结果

经济发展、人口增加、生活方式改变，已经使得水资源利用面临着巨大的压力

Flooding Flood management

W Pollution Green economic

W LosingSelf restoration + engineering

Water savingW Shortage

Integrated WR Management / 水资源一体化管理

水土流失 自我修复与水土保持

水污染 绿 色 经 济

水 多 洪 水 管 理

水 少 节 水 技 术

Water-Saving Society / 节水型社会

ChinaChina Developed Developed CountriesCountries

Consumed Water/ 10000GDP(RMB) 537 m537 m33

0.70.7～～ 0.8 0.8 0.40.4 －－ 0.50.5

Index of water usage

4×World 4×World Mean valueMean value

The effective-utilization coefficient of agricultural irrigation water （灌溉水利用系数）

北京市高碑店污水处理厂

水 窖

Non-Traditional water sources / 非传统水源

• High cost / 高费用 .• Technology Support / 技

术支持Waste water treatment

污水处理Storm water harvest

雨洪资源利用Sea water desalination

海水淡化

Reservoirs / 水库

River dikes / 堤防

Flood retention areas / 滞洪区

Water transfer projects / 调水工程

Water Controlling Projects / 控制性工程

JingJiang dyke

Embankment

Three Gorge Reservoir Reservoirs: 87,000

已建水库： 87,000

Total storage capacity: 600 billion m3

总蓄水容量： 6000亿 m3

海河 Haihe river

淮河 Huaihe river

黄河 Yellow river

长江 Yangtze river

西线工程WL

中线工程ML 东

线工程EL

Water transfer project / 调水工程

Soil and water conservation / 水土保持

Re-grass / 退牧还草Reforestation / 更新造林Terrace construction / 梯田建设 Check dams / 淤地坝

Perfect policy, laws, and

regulations / 完善法律、法规和政策Public education / 公众教育

Different issues for different regions / 不同区域面临不同问题Different adaptation strategies for different regions / 不同区域的适应措施存在差异

Regional adaptation strategies / 区域适应对策

Principle / 原则

Key Regions

Observed Changes / 观测到的气候变化

Assessment model / 气候变化影响评价模型

Effect Assessment for Water / 水资源影响评价

Adaptative strategies / 气候变化的适应对策

Scientific Issues / 需进一步研究的科学问题

Contents

Uncertainty in Assessment /Uncertainty in Assessment / 不确定性不确定性

Scientific issues and further study进一步需要研究的科学问题

Improvements / Improvements / 改进改进

New scenario / 新情景新情景

Assessment model, especially for ungauged areas / 改进模型改进模型

EmissionScenario

GCMs RCMS AssessmentHM

Limitation of adaptation / Limitation of adaptation / 适应的局限性适应的局限性

More strategies at state level / 多集中在国家层面

Lack of regional adaptation strategies / 缺少区域有效措施

Thanks for your attentionThanks for your attention

谢谢！谢谢！