accommodation outlook - 3rdmillcms05.3rdgen.info/sites/158/resource/byron merzeo accommoda… ·...
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Accommodation Outlook
Bryon MerzeoAustralia & New Zealand Manager
BTTBMay 5, 2011
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Who is STR Global?
Data provider - focused on hotel dataDemand, Supply, Profitability, Pipeline.
The world’s largest source of global hotel performance dataCovering over 5,500,000 rooms in over 40,000 hotels, resorts & serviced
apartments worldwide.
Primary Clients IHG • Starwood • Hilton • Hyatt • Marriott • Accor • Shangri-La • Four Seasons
• Mantra • Ascott • Pan Pacific • Worldhotels • Langham • Leading Hotels of
the World • Mirvac • Rydges • Best Western • Choice Hotels • Grand Hotels •
Oaks Group, etc. etc.
Other clientsDevelopment and investment community Hospitality suppliersConsulting firmsHotel associations / NTOs
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How it works
HotelsHotel Groups
•Consultants
•Developers
•Financial Inst.
•Governments
•Suppliers
•NTO’s
•others
Market DATA:
•Aggregated data
•Competitive set / market
•Occ/ADR/RevPAR
•Demand / Supply
•Year on Year comparison
•Pipeline
•Aggregated data
•Competitive set / market
•Occupancy
•ADR
•RevPAR
•Index (MPI, ARI, RGI)
•Rank
•Year on Year comparison
•YTD / MTD
•Day of week
•Weekend / Weekday
Benchmark Reporting
DATA:
•Rooms sold
•Rooms revenue
•Pipeline
•Profitability
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Year End 2009...RevPar year-on-year % change
-16.7%North America
Europe
Asia Pac
Middle East/Africa-17.0%
-19.4%
-13.3%
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One year later.Year End 2010, RevPar year-on-year % change
+9.9%
North America
Europe
+6.1% +21.3%
+4.0%
Asia Pac
Middle East/Africa
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Growth ContinuesYTD March 2011, RevPar year-on-year % change
+8.9%
North America
Europe
+8.6% +12.8%
+0.9%
Asia Pac
Middle East/Africa
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% change, Local Currency. Year end 2010
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Bangkok
Bali
New Delhi
Seoul
Tokyo
Sydney
Singapore
Beijing
Hong Kong
Shanghai
Occupancy Average room rate
Asia Key Markets - 2010
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% change, Local Currency. YTD as of March 2011.
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Bangkok
Bali
New Delhi
Seoul
Tokyo
Sydney
Singapore
Beijing
Hong Kong
Shanghai
Occupancy Average room rate
Asia Key Markets – YTD 2011
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YTD
Occupancy
Total Rooms
Measured
Nightly
Rooms
Available
Sydney 84.6 22,376 3,356
Melbourne 79.4 13,871 2,774
Brisbane 75.8 5,190 1,245
Perth 82.4 5,085 915
Canberra 77.1 2,500 575
Average room availability
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Total of 335,300 rooms in the pipeline
Asia Pacific Pipeline
56%21%
5%4%
4%2% 1%
3%
4%
RoomsChina
India
Thailand
Indonesia
Vietnam
Philippines
Australia
Malaysia
Others
Room supply in China will increase about 16% over the next 3-4 years.
India - an increase of just under 50%.
187,750 rooms
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$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$220
$240
$260
$280Top End Upscale Midscale
Past 15 months
Melbourne ADR by Market Class
$96
$22
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100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300Topend Upscale Midscale
Past 15 months
Sydney ADR by Market Class
$80
$24
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Day of Week Rate Variations YTD 2011
$19
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We can expect...
$25
Day of Week Rate Variations YTD 2011
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Sydney vs. MelbourneDay of Week Rate Growth – YoY % Change, YTD 2011
$5
$25Sydney
Melbourne
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
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1st June 16 Wed $315
2nd Feb 25 Thu $207
3rd Feb 27 Sat $202
4th May 18 Tue $200Science Conference, Biffy
Clyro Concert, etc
5th May 19 Wed $195 Mixed Conferences
Revenue Super Stars: Brisbane
Best Performing Days by RevPAR of 2010
53 Days above 95%
Occ in past year
Only 260 rooms
available!
Note: Annual RevPAR was $138
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Sydney CBD is nearly Sold Out! (Often)
Best Performing Occupancy Days -past 365 days
Date DOW Occ
12/31/2010 Fri 98.5
10/14/2010 Thu 98.5
10/21/2010 Thu 98.4
02/22/2011 Tue 98.4
10/23/2010 Sat 98.2
02/16/2011 Wed 98.2
02/08/2011 Tue 98.1
10/13/2010 Wed 98.1
08/07/2010 Sat 98.1
07/31/2010 Sat 98.1
12/02/2010 Thu 98.0
10/26/2010 Tue 98.0
11/16/2010 Tue 98.0
84 Days above 95%
Occupancy...
Only 763 rooms
available!
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North Sydney
79% $171
Sydney CBD
88% $208
Outer Sydney
77% $158
Sydney variations by regionYTD Occupancy and ADR
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Sydney Seasonality Average Rate
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
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Sydney Seasonality – 2008 to 2009Average Rate
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
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Sydney Seasonality – 2008 to 2010Average Rate
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
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Sydney Seasonality - 2008 to 2011Average Rate
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
2011
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Dynamic Pricing vs. Static rate
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
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Dynamic Pricing: set discount % should result
in less restrictions & more availability
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
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Segmentation Program Definitions-Customer Type
Group
Includes rooms occupied which were sold simultaneously in blocks of a minimum
of ten (10) rooms or more (e.g. group tours, domestic and international groups,
association, convention and corporate groups, SMERF group business).
Contract
Rooms occupied at rates that are stipulated by contracts including airline crews, on-
going training seminars and permanent guests. Room allotments that do not require
guaranteed use or payment should not be classified as contract. Rooms sold under
such allotments should be classified as transient.
Transient
Includes rooms occupied by those with reservations at Rack, Corporate, Corporate
Negotiated, Package, Government, or foreign traveller rates. Also includes
occupied rooms booked via third party web sites (exception: simultaneous bookings of
ten or more rooms which should be defined as group).
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Sydney Occupancy by Segment
Transient
Contract
Group
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A lesson in the risk of discounting rates
Profit is driven first by high rates, not full hotelsBy Lana Yoshii - Vice President Product Development, STR
$5 Rate drop
=
$40,000 decrease in
Operating Profit
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Tools for Hotel Buyers: Full suite of reports
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• Partial recovery of 2010 is continuing in 2011
• Corporate & Leisure demand is back and growing
moderately
• Supply growth across Asia, with China and India at the
front. Minimal new supply for Australia key markets
• Strong demand, undersupply in Australia business
markets = limited group availability
• Australia resort destinations feel pressure of $,
oversupply
• Hotels aim to maximize favorable opportunities, Rate
growth of 10%+
Summary
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Questions?
Should you be interested in the data/reports used to create this presentation,
please contact me:
Bryon [email protected]