acedp csiro and wf hc and sy
TRANSCRIPT
Overview: CIRO and Water for a Healthy Country Flagship
ACEDP Australia-China Roundtable Dr Bill Young, Director, Water for a Healthy Country National Research Flagship
2 | CSIRO. Australian Science, Australia's Future
6500+ staff over 55 locations
CSIRO today: a snapshot
160+ active licences of CSIRO innovation
20+ spin-off companies in six years
Ranked in top 1% in 14 research fields
One of the largest & most diverse in the world
Australia’s national science agency
Building national prosperity and wellbeing
CSIRO operates primarily in the $32bn Australian R&D market
• 3
4 | CSIRO. Australian Science, Australia's Future
Harnessing One-CSIRO
Delivering on National Challenges
Exploring New Horizons
Conducting Science with Impact
Building our People and Science Excellence
Our strategy – growing our impact
CSIRO International Strategy 2007-2011 Page 5
CSIRO international engagement 2008-09
• >200 Publications • 50-200 Publications • 10-50 Publications • <10 Publications • No Publications
•
• USA (1) - 268
• NZ (2) - 117
• China (3) - 88
• France (4) - 56
• UK (5) - 54
• Japan (6) - 49
• India (7) - 43
• Hong Kong (8) - 39
• Canada (9) - 38
• Malaysia (10) - 33
• >200 Collaborative activities • 50-200 Collaborative activities
• 10-50 Collaborative activities
• Co-authored scientific publications:
• Other collaborative activities (top 10 countries):
6 | CSIRO. Australian Science, Australia's Future
Future Manufacturing
Light Metals
Minerals Down Under
Sustainable Agriculture
Water for a Healthy Country
Preventative Health
Wealth from Oceans
Climate Adaptation
Food Futures
Energy Transformed
National Research Flagships
Water for a Healthy Country Flagship
Establish research investments that: • Address a significant unmet need with an adoption partner • Are large, to accommodate a research portfolio approach • Are long-lived, to provide a secure platform that allows for new
ideas to be developed • Build new partnerships with other research institutions to
provide necessary skills
Water for a Healthy Country To provide water managers with options that meet water needs to 2030, creating $1 billion per annum of net economic benefit, while maintaining or improving the condition of aquatic ecosystems
To provide Australia with solutions for water resource management, creating economic gains of $3 billion per annum by 2030, while protecting or restoring our major water ecosystems
Integrated Water Information Systems
Healthy Water Ecosystems Urban Water Regional Water
Stream 1 Integrated Water Systems
Analysis
Stream 2 Recycling and Diversified Supply
Stream 3 Advanced Treatment
Stream 1 Environmental Water
Stream 2 Catchment and Aquatic Health
Stream 1 Water Informatics
Stream 1 Water in a Changing Climate
Stream 4 Water in Northern Australia
Stream 2 Irrigation, Economics and
Environment
Stream 4 Urban Water Environments
Stream 3 Environmental Contaminants
Stream 2 Water Resources Assessment
and Accounting
Stream 3 Water Forecasting and Prediction
Stream 3 Groundwater Characterisation
and Management
Stream 5 River System Modelling
Stream 5 Distributed Systems
Stream 6 Sustainable Asset Management
Stream 7 Intelligent Networks
Water for a Healthy Country Flagship
The largest water research venture in Australia
CSIRO Sustainable Yields Projects
Murray-Darling Basin Northern Australia South-West Western Australia Tasmania
• CSIRO South-West Western Australia Sustainable Yields Project – Overview
Annual rainfall and inflow into Perth dams Runoff is affected by climate and other factors
• 16% reduction
• 55% reduction
• Historical
• Recent
The data for SWWA do not include the 10-15% reduction in rainfall and 55% reduction in runoff that occurred between 1975 and 2008
Projected changes in rainfall and runoff by 2030 in four SY regions
MDBSY – Climate scenarios
• 15 GCMs (IPCC AR4), 3 global warming levels (high, medium, low)
• 45 variants for climate assessment and rainfall-runoff modelling • For each region, select 3 based on modelled mean annual
runoff • 2nd wettest for high warming • 2nd driest for high warming • Median for medium warming
• Uncertainty in 2030 hydrology is dominated by differences amongst GCMs not differences between warming levels
• Explore water availability, flow regime and water sharing impacts of these 3 variants
Example – Murray region
River model linkages
Surface water availability across the MDB
Current surface water availability
Median climate change impact on future water availability
Impact of climate change on water availability
Median impact is an 11 percent reduction in water availability (~2500 GL/year)
Impact sharing for median 2030 climate
Maj
or fl
oodp
lain
wet
land
s
Changes in average period between floods
Changes in maximum period between floods
Implications for Lower Lakes
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Lake
Lev
el (m
AH
D)
Without-development
Current
Without-development (Cmid)
Current (Cmid)
Implications for Lower Lakes
Implications for water resource management and environmental flows
• Regional CC projections remain uncertain meaning water resource planning must consider multiple plausible futures in a risk framework.
• Water resource development has doubled the average period between flooding for many wetlands; the additional impact on average flood intervals of even moderate CC could lead to major ecological change.
• Given current impacts even moderate CC would mean maximum periods between floods would be 4x the natural values for many wetlands and ~10x the natural values for some wetlands.
• Under moderate CC the % of months in which the LL are below MSL would double, and would see LL levels drop twice as far below MSL than would otherwise be the case.
• CC means achieving ecological sustainability will require greater reductions in water use in the MDB than would otherwise be the case.