Acid Rain Cooperation in Acid Rain Cooperation in EuropeEurope

The ProblemThe Problem

Svante Oden (1968): “The Acidification of Air and Svante Oden (1968): “The Acidification of Air and Precipitation and its Consequences.” Precipitation and its Consequences.”

SOx, NOx -> transported over the continent -SOx, NOx -> transported over the continent ->form acids in precipitation or dry form>form acids in precipitation or dry form

Damage to health, forests, lakes, soils, Damage to health, forests, lakes, soils, ecosystems – particularly in Sweden, Norway ecosystems – particularly in Sweden, Norway

International environmental externalityInternational environmental externality

The ActorsThe Actors

Leaders: Sweden, NorwayLeaders: Sweden, Norway– 1972 Conference on the Human Environment1972 Conference on the Human Environment

Laggards: UK, Germany, Communist Laggards: UK, Germany, Communist Eastern EuropeEastern Europe

The BreakthroughThe Breakthrough

1975 Helsinki Conference on Security and 1975 Helsinki Conference on Security and Cooperation in EuropeCooperation in Europe– USSR and US interested in détenteUSSR and US interested in détente– Environment the most convenient object of cooperationEnvironment the most convenient object of cooperation– Scandinavians saw an opportunity, so did CanadaScandinavians saw an opportunity, so did Canada– The UN Economic Commission for Europe –lead agencyThe UN Economic Commission for Europe –lead agency

Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention (LRTAP), 1979(LRTAP), 1979

EMEP Protocol (1984)EMEP Protocol (1984)

More Lead ActorsMore Lead Actors

West Germany: the death of the Black West Germany: the death of the Black ForestForest

30% club: Scandinavians, W. Germany, 30% club: Scandinavians, W. Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Canada, FranceAustria, Switzerland, Canada, France

The First Sulfur Protocol (1985):The First Sulfur Protocol (1985):– 30% of 1980 emissions by 199330% of 1980 emissions by 1993

The ProtocolsThe Protocols The Nitrogen Oxides Protocol (1988)The Nitrogen Oxides Protocol (1988)

– Freeze emissions at 1987 levels by 1995Freeze emissions at 1987 levels by 1995 VOC Protocol (1991)VOC Protocol (1991)

– 30% of emissions (base b/w 1984 and 1990) by 1999.30% of emissions (base b/w 1984 and 1990) by 1999. The Second Sulfur Protocol (1994)The Second Sulfur Protocol (1994)

– Differentiated targets bases on critical loads for Differentiated targets bases on critical loads for acidification for 2000 and 2010;technology standardsacidification for 2000 and 2010;technology standards

The Protocol on Heavy Metals (1998 )The Protocol on Heavy Metals (1998 ) The Protocol on POPs (1998)The Protocol on POPs (1998) Gothenburg Multipollutant Protocol (1999) Gothenburg Multipollutant Protocol (1999)

Regulatory InnovationRegulatory Innovation

Critical loads: “the highest load that will not cause chemical changes leading to Critical loads: “the highest load that will not cause chemical changes leading to long-term harmful effects on the most sensitive ecological ecosystems” (Levy long-term harmful effects on the most sensitive ecological ecosystems” (Levy 1995, p. 61).1995, p. 61).

Why negotiate on the basis of critical Why negotiate on the basis of critical loads estimates?loads estimates?

Critical Loads for Acid DepositionCritical Loads for Acid Deposition(red-high sensitivity, blue –low)(red-high sensitivity, blue –low)

The RAINS ModelThe RAINS Model

Integrate science in Integrate science in international policyinternational policy

Emissions moduleEmissions module Cost moduleCost module Dispersion moduleDispersion module Effects module (critical Effects module (critical

loads)loads)

Second Sulfur Protocol:Second Sulfur Protocol: Correlation of SO2 Correlation of SO2 Emission Ceilings and RAINS RecommendationsEmission Ceilings and RAINS Recommendations

Second Sulphur Protocol (Signatories Only)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000

RAINS input (kT SO2/ yr)

Pro

tocol te

rms (

kT S

O2

/yr)

BulgariaPoland

Russian Federation

Spain

Ukraine

Second Sulfur Protocol (1994)Second Sulfur Protocol (1994)

60% gap closure against critical loads60% gap closure against critical loads

Differentiated targetsDifferentiated targets

Requirement to apply Best Available Requirement to apply Best Available Technology (BAT), achieve up to 90% Technology (BAT), achieve up to 90% desulfurization of emissions from large desulfurization of emissions from large sourcessources

Table 4: 1994 Second Sulfur Protocol: Terms, Emissions and Model Input Baseline for

Protocol “Current”

Estimate for pre-1994

Protocol Terms

Were targets met by 1998?

Signatories 1980 emissions

(kT SO2/yr)

1990 emissions

(kT SO2/yr)

2000 ceilings

(kT SO2/yr)

2000 %

2010 %

RAINS %

1998 emissions

(kT SO2/yr)

Austria 397 90 78 80 80 80 46 Belarus 740 - 456 38 50 38 190 Belgium 828 443 248 70 74 77 203 Bulgaria 2050 2020 1375 33 45 74 1251 Canada 4614 3700 3200 30 - - 2696 Croatia 150 160 133 11 22 40 89 Czech Rep. 2257 1876 1128 50 72 72 443 Denmark 451 180 90 80 80 72 77 Finland 584 260 116 80 80 80 90 France 3348 1202 868 74 78 80 837 Germany 7494 5803 1300 83 87 90 1292 Greece 400 510 595 0 4 0 540 Hungary 1632 1010 898 45 60 68 591 Ireland 222 168 155 30 30 41 176 Italy 3800 - 1330 65 73 73 1021 (1997) Liechtenstein 0.4 0.1 0.1 75 75 - 0.1 Luxembourg 24 - 10 58 58 58 4 Netherlands 466 207 106 77 77 77 113 Norway 142 54 34 76 76 76 30 Poland 4100 3210 2583 37 66 66 1897 Portugal 266 284 304 0 3 0 334 (1996) Russian Fed. 7161 4460 4440 38 40 38 2208 Slovakia 843 539 337 60 72 72 179 Slovenia 235 195 130 45 70 45 123 Spain 3319 2316 2143 35 35 55 1498 (1996) Sweden 507 130 100 80 80 83 49 Switzerland 126 62 60 52 52 52 27 Ukraine 3850 - 2310 40 40 56 1132 (1997) UK 4898 3780 2449 50 80 79 1615

The Gothenburg Protocol (1999) The Gothenburg Protocol (1999)

Multiple effects: Acidification, Eutrophication and Multiple effects: Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone Ground-level Ozone

Multiple pollutants: emission ceilings for SOx, Multiple pollutants: emission ceilings for SOx, NOx, VOCs and ammonia (NH3) by 2010NOx, VOCs and ammonia (NH3) by 2010

Based on RAINS outputsBased on RAINS outputs Emission limits for large combustion sources, dry Emission limits for large combustion sources, dry

cleaning, cars, trucks based on BATcleaning, cars, trucks based on BAT If implemented, Europe’s sulfur emissions should If implemented, Europe’s sulfur emissions should

be cut by 63%, its NOx by 41%, VOC by 40%, and be cut by 63%, its NOx by 41%, VOC by 40%, and ammonia by 17% compared to 1990. ammonia by 17% compared to 1990.

Gothenburg Protocol: Correlation of SO2 emission ceilings Gothenburg Protocol: Correlation of SO2 emission ceilings and RAINS Recommendationsand RAINS Recommendations

Model Input vs. Protocol: SO2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

J1 (final scenario from RAINS)

Pro

tocol (a

ccep

ted

term

s)

Poland

BulgariaRomania

Spain

Germany

France

Italy

HungaryUK

Greece

EU DirectivesEU Directives

Large Combustion Plant Directive (1988)Large Combustion Plant Directive (1988)

Large Combustion Plant Directive II (2001)Large Combustion Plant Directive II (2001)

National Emissions Ceilings Directive (2001)National Emissions Ceilings Directive (2001)

Acid Rain Cooperation in EuropeAcid Rain Cooperation in Europe

Success or least common denominator Success or least common denominator agreements?agreements?

Emissions in the ECEmissions in the ECNOx-24%; SO2 -58%NOx-24%; SO2 -58%

1990

1990

1999

1999

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

NOx SO2

Air Pollution in the USAir Pollution in the US

Growth vs. Acidifying Emissions: Growth vs. Acidifying Emissions: Central and Eastern EuropeCentral and Eastern Europe

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

19801981

19821983

19841985

19861987

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20020%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

SOx

NOx

GDP

Growth and Acidifying Emissions: Growth and Acidifying Emissions:

Commonwealth of Independent StatesCommonwealth of Independent States

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

2000

Total SO2

Total GDP

ConclusionsConclusions

-What facilitates cooperation?-What facilitates cooperation?

-Why some regimes ratchet up while other do -Why some regimes ratchet up while other do not?not?