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Enhancing Climate Resiliency into Manitoba Infrastructure: Dialogue of Current Issues and Opportunities Jan. 28, 2014

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ACTIONS for ENGINEERS AND MANAGERS:

Building Resiliency in

the Infrastructure Sector

Lessons Learned and

Paths Forward

Roger Rempel , FEC, P.Eng.

Managing Associate, Stantec Consult ing, Winnipeg

Contact: [email protected]

Instructor: Cl imate Resi l ient Systems Training

Image: 100 Resilient Cities

David Lapp, FEC, P.Eng.

Practice Lead, Engineering and Public Policy

Engineers Canada, Ottawa, ON

Contact: david. [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


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Today’s Discussion..

• Climate Change Dilemma for

Engineers

• Infrastructure Risks from Expanded

Climate Ranges and Extremes

• PIEVC and Engineers Canada

• Lessons Learned, Integrating CVA

into Asset Procurement, Design

• Emerging Best Practices

• Actions for Assessing Infrastructure

• Benefits


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The Climate Change Dilemma for Engineers

and Other Professionals

• Most practicing engineers and related

professions have no formal training related to

climate change

• University and engineering education programs

do not include material that covers the basic

science of climate change, its impacts and their

implication for design, operations, maintenance

and emergency response

• Yet the public looks to engineers and other

professionals for leadership and trusted advice

on climate change

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Engineers, Infrastructure and Climate Change

• Professional engineers hold paramount the health, safety

and welfare of the public and have regard for the

environment

• Engineers must consider economic, social and

environmental factors to achieve sustainable

infrastructure that serves the public over its lifespan

• The changing climate threatens our ability to design,

operate and maintain infrastructure that is sustainable for

the duration of its service life

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So what is the concern with infrastructure and

changing climate?

Increasing occurrence of extreme

weather events causing damage

and destruction with high cost to

repair and replace

Existing infrastructure has normally

been designed using historical

climate data

Infrastructure will not be sufficiently

resilient for its service life in the

future climate

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STRUCTURES

Ice Storms

and Wet

Snow

Rainfall

Intensity &

Accumul.

Extreme

Winds

Summer

Storms &

Tornadoes

Extreme

Snow

Power Lines &

Transmission

Structures

FAILURE

ice + wind ADDITIVE FAILURE FAILURE SOME

Communication FAILURE

ice + wind ADDITIVE FAILURE FAILURE SOME

Buildings SEVERE

ICING &

WET SNOW

DRAINAGE

& FAILURE FAILURE FAILURE FAILURE

Roads, Bridges OPERATION

RISKS

DRAINAGE

& EROSION

OPERATION

& RISKS

FAILURE

RISK OPERATION

Stormwater &

Wastewater

POWER

FAILURES

TOTAL

FAILURE

POWER

FAILURES FAILURE RISKS

Water Supply &

Distribution

POWER

FAILURES

LACK OF -

DROUGHT

POWER

FAILURE

POWER

FAILURE RISKS

Risks to Various Infrastructure Types from Increasing

Climate/Weather Extremes (Frequencies/Intensities)


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Infrastructure and Climate Change

Photos courtesy

Jane-Finch.com

August 2005 Storm - Toronto

Photos courtesy

Jane-Finch.com


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Toronto: August 2005 Storm

Toronto has

154 large

culverts

TOTAL

$547 Million


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Insurance Impacts Re-insurance companies are concerned.


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Why Address Infrastructure Risks?

• Minimize service disruptions

• Protect people, property and the environment

• Optimize service • Manage lifecycle

• Manage operations

• Avoid surprises

• Reduce costs

• First step in planning adaptation


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PIEVC Engineering Protocol

• More framework detail later in this presentation

• Public Infrastructure Engineering

Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC)

developed a Climate Vulnerability

Assessment framework for

assessing public infrastructure.

• This framework is known as the

PIEVC Protocol and it is used in

Canada and internationally


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Applied to 40+ Projects and Counting …

• Water resource systems

• Storm & waste water

systems

• Roads & bridges

• Buildings

• Transportation

infrastructure

• Energy Infrastructure


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What else is the Engineering Profession doing?

• Raising awareness and engagement with and

among professional engineers, other

professions, decision-makers and policy-makers

• Continuing professional development – climate

change course syllabus

• Assessment of climate risks

• Developing (best) practice guidelines – Model

Guide on Principles of Climate Change

Adaptation for Engineers – June 2014

• Constituent associations – practice guidelines for specific infrastructure categories

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Infrastructure and Climate Change

“The world is entering a future in which risks

are more concentrated and more complex.

That is why we are pressing for policies that

reduce those risks through preparation,

adaptation, and mitigation. That will be

cheaper than covering tomorrow’s losses

after disaster strikes.

Bruno Porro, Chief Risk Officer, Swiss Re


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LESSONS LEARNED

Themes emerging from

completed Climate

Vulnerability

Assessments of

Infrastructure Systems

Highway 404 in Toronto, Ontario July 27, 2014

Image: Global News


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Climate Change Realities Emerge for the

Public Infrastructure Sector

Slide 16

• Climate Change is not just about the future.

• We are witnessing significant changes now.

• Climate Change will not occur gradually,

potential for “jagged” steps.

Image: Reuters/Lucas Jackson

• Major infrastructure projects typically plan for

20+ years into the future

• Longer life cycle, more exposure to climate

shifts, wider ranges of extremes

• No need to wait for action. Risks assessable!


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Lessons in Applying Climate Vulnerability

Assessment to Infrastructure Assets

• Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA),

frameworks are applicable to projects at

multiple stages:

• Conceptual, detailed design, existing

infrastructure

• Never too late to assess and enact a risk

management plan.

• Designing to current codes/standards likely

not enough to protect engineers, asset

managers from exposure to liabilities from

expanded climate risk.

• Codes require revision to design for wider

ranges of local climate.

• The process will take years to complete.

Image: St Vincent, 2013. Jamaica Observer


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Application of Climate Vulnerability Assessment In

Infrastructure Projects…

• Potential for liability sought from

engineers under scenario of

• no CVA conducted on project design,

then;

• abnormal climate event-induced asset

loss/damage occurs”,

• Response?

• Potential for limitations in near future to

protect while designing absent of CVA

“Design process adhered to existing codes

and standards and therefore considered

historical climate ranges only..”

Image: Hewanorra Airport, St. Lucia, Christmas Day, 2013


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Application of Climate Vulnerability Assessment In

Infrastructure Projects…

• Factor CVA into Procurement Process

• For Project RFPs:

• low price emphasis

• no scope or project budget allotment for Climate

Vulnerability Assessment

• CVA likely won’t happen.

• Scoping CVA into Infrastructure Projects is

justified:

• due diligence (risk reduction of assessable risk)

• maximizing public expenditure investment value.

• Design for projected changes now to

maximize asset resilience.


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EMERGING BEST PRACTICE:

Approaches to Build Resilience


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Emerging Best Practice • How should municipalities to

reasonably prepare for

climate-induced

uncertainties?

• Generally, a blend of scenario

planning and adaptive

management is most effective

approach for decision-makers,

asset managers.

• Adaptive Management for climate

shifts

• Scenario planning for extreme

events


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Adaptive Management

• A process built to enable

decisions under conditions of

uncertainty

• 6 Key Steps

1. Assess Problem

2. Design or plan intervention

3. Implement response

4. Monitor results

5. Evaluate response

6. Adjust intervention response on

that basis.


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Scenario Planning

• A decision-making tool to

encourage reasonable

conduct in the face of

foreseeable risks of climate

change

• Most useful in situations with

• High uncertainty

• Severity of impact may be

unacceptable

Source: U.S. National Climate Assessment 2014


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Responding to

Uncertainties

• Climate Change impacts are

challenging, they occur over long

time scales, constantly shift in

rate and geographic scope.

• Don’t develop complete adaptation

strategies based on near term

• Focus instead on staged

transitions to higher levels of

intervention as mission-critical

thresholds are reached

• Assessing vulnerabilities is key!

Image: Maryland SHA


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Multiple Modes for Adaptation

• Involves making changes to enhance

resilience or reduce vulnerability to

impacts caused by climate change.

• Adaptations can occur in multiple ways:

• Structural adaptations: enhanced design,

retrofit of existing

• Policy adaptations: changes in Gov't policy.

e.g. Restricting development in flood zones

• Operational and Maintenance

adaptations: Changes in operations or

maintenance procedures to reduce

vulnerability. e.g. better drainage

maintenance to maintain drainage capacity

Climate Resilient Crops Image: Ariel Javellana/IRRI


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Consider Factors can Combine • Events can occur in rapid

succession

• Events can add together

• Extreme rainfall + hail

• Management or maintenance

practices can intensify impacts

• Infrequent culvert clearing +

severe rain

• Change of use can intensify

impacts

• Urbanization → changes in

drainage regime → increased

drainage flow

Combination of events can exacerbate

the vulnerability


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Canadian Guidelines Imminent

• Knowledge gained from 40+ PIEVC study

results informed development of a Model

Guideline for Engineers Canada

Constituent Associations.

• Model Guideline provides important

Guidance Elements in three key areas:

• Professional Judgment

• Integrating Climate Information

• Practice Guidance

• Engineers Canada has provided this

Model to Constituent Associations for

adoption


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Image: Maryland SHA

ACTION FOR ASSESSING

YOUR CLIMATE

VULNERABILITIES


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Design Life-Appropriate Assessment

• As design-life gets longer,

risks of under-design can

increase

• There is adaptive capacity

because of maintenance &

rehabilitation

• Conversely, poor maintenance

and lack of rehabilitation

contributes to vulnerability


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Identifying Climate Vulnerabilities

Source: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2011

• How will a design respond

to a wider range of climate

characteristics than it was

originally designed for?

• Which components could be

sensitive to climate shifts?


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Evaluating Sensitivities to Climate Impacts

• Look at characteristics

of infrastructure

components

• Look at locations,

exposure of assets to

climate change-induced

impacts

Source: Stantec 2014, Maryland State Highway Administration

Climate Vulnerability Assessment


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Risk Assessment:

Qualitative, Quantitative, or Both. • Qualitative

Consequence

Evaluation:

• Looks at Impact

Severity in one or

more areas

Source: World Bank Group, International Finance Corp. Climate Risk and Business-PORTS


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Vulnerability and Adaptation • Successful planning framework needs to

support:

• Organizing information

• Organizing activities for action on information

• Good frameworks have structure to

allow:

• Ongoing update (“living document”)

• Integration of improved data, information

• Evaluation of adaptation effectiveness

• Systematic vulnerability assessment and risk-

prioritization of identified vulnerabilities

Source: Stantec 2014, Maryland State Highway Administration

Climate Vulnerability Assessment


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Assessing Vulnerability/Resiliency with

Canada’s PIEVC Process

• GOAL: Assist infrastructure owners and

operators to effectively incorporate climate

change adaptation into design, development

and decision-making

• A tool derived from standard risk management

methods tailored to climate change

vulnerability

• Five step evaluation process

• Data quality and availability assessed

throughout


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PIEVC Master Results Matrix

Slide 35


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Benefits of Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Infrastructure

• Identify nature and severity of risks to components

• Optimize more detailed engineering analysis

• Quick identification of most obvious vulnerabilities

• Structured, documented approach ensures consistency and accountability: due diligence

• Adjustments to design, operations and maintenance

• PIEVC findings applicable to new designs, retrofitting, rehabilitation and operations and maintenance

• Informs review and adjustment of codes, standards and engineering practices


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Questions and More Info

David Lapp, FEC, P. Eng. Engineers Canada

[email protected]

www.engineerscanada.ca

www.pievc.ca

Roger Rempel, FEC, P. Eng. Stantec

[email protected]

PIEVC Training Webinar Courses (Instructors

include R. Rempel, H. Auld, J. Nodelman)

Climate Resilient Training Systems

www.climateresilientsystems.com

For more information contact …



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