actuarial study as of june 30, 2017 - vbgov.com...and data evaluated as of june 30, 2015 in our...

111
ACTUARIAL STUDY OF UNPAID LOSSES AND ALAE AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH SEPTEMBER 11, 2017

Upload: others

Post on 29-Jun-2020

3 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY OF UNPAID LOSSES AND ALAE AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH SEPTEMBER 11, 2017

Page 2: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH

OLIVER WYMAN

i

CONTENTS

1. Executive Summary .................................................................................................... 1 • Purpose and Scope ............................................................................................... 1 • Actuarial Findings .................................................................................................. 2 • Relevant Comments .............................................................................................. 3 

2. Background ................................................................................................................. 5 

3. Data............................................................................................................................. 6 

4. Methodology................................................................................................................ 7 

5. Distribution and Use .................................................................................................... 9 

6. Considerations and Limitations ................................................................................. 10 

7. Acknowledgement of Qualifications .......................................................................... 12 

8. Glossary .................................................................................................................... 13 

Page 3: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH

OLIVER WYMAN

1

1 Executive Summary Purpose and Scope

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc. (Oliver Wyman) was requested by Marsh USA, Inc. (Marsh) and City of Virginia Beach (CVB) to conduct an examination of CVB’s retained workers compensation (WC), general liability (GL), and automobile liability (AL) exposures. As part of our analysis, we have estimated the following by line of business:

• Actuarial central estimates of retained unpaid losses and ALAE as of June 30, 2017 based on data evaluated as of June 30, 2017, including amounts for incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) claims

• Current (short-term) liability as of June 30, 2017 • Projected ultimate loss and ALAE for the fiscal year 2017/18 • Cash flow projections of unpaid loss and ALAE as of the next fiscal year-end as well as

expected payments during the fiscal year

The term “unpaid losses and ALAE” refers to our actuarial estimates of the obligation for future payment resulting from claims due to past events. The unpaid estimates and prospective loss rates presented in this report are intended to represent actuarial central estimates which, consistent with the applicable actuarial standard of practice, we define as the expected value over the range of reasonably possible (as opposed to all conceivable) outcomes. Our estimates of ultimate loss are based on loss and ALAE data evaluated as of June 30, 2017 and additional information provided to us through September 11, 2017. All estimates are limited to CVB’s per-occurrence retentions, and are net of salvage and subrogation recoveries. CVB’s retentions are summarized in the Background section of the report. We understand there are five open WC claims for accidents occurring prior to July 1, 1985, with case reserves of $50 thousand to cover future prescription drug costs. We do not have the historical retentions for these policy periods. For these claims, we have added in the case reserves to our figures, but have not calculated any additional IBNR. Throughout this report, all references to losses include ALAE unless otherwise specified. Also, unless otherwise stated, any reference to the terms “incurred”, “paid plus case outstanding”, and “reported” refer to the same type of data and have been used interchangeably throughout the report.

Page 4: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH

OLIVER WYMAN

2

Actuarial Findings

Projected Unpaid Losses as of June 30, 2017 We have estimated unpaid losses and ALAE for CVB’s self-insurance program as of June 30, 2017. The table below presents the unpaid estimates by line of business and in total on an undiscounted basis. All estimates reflect CVB’s retentions. In addition, we have calculated the current (or short-term) liability as of June 30, 2017. The current liability is defined as the expected payments over the next twelve months for accidents occurring through June 30, 2017. Please see Exhibit 1, Sheet 1 of each line of business section for detail by fiscal year.

Unpaid Losses and ALAE as of June 30, 2017

Line of Business Case ReserveIBNR

Reserve Total Unpaid Loss & ALAE

Workers Compensation $13,115,831 $21,545,935 $34,661,766

General Liability 890,660 1,353,251 2,243,912

Automobile Liability 209,798 617,025 826,823

All Lines Combined $14,216,289 $23,516,211 $37,732,500

Current (Short-term) Liability as of June 30, 2017

Line of Business Current Liability

Workers Compensation $5,532,938 16%

General Liability 983,449 44%

Automobile Liability 458,177 55%

All Lines Combined $6,974,563 18% The percentages in the above table represent the short-term liability divided by the total unpaid loss and ALAE as of June 30, 2017.

Page 5: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH

OLIVER WYMAN

3

Funding Estimate for Fiscal Year 2018 At CVB’s request, we have estimated ultimate losses and ALAE by line of business for fiscal year, including accidents occurring from July 1, 2017 through June 30, 2018. These future estimates rely heavily on projected exposures, as estimated by CVB. For details of the forecast calculations, please see Exhibit 3, Sheet 1 of each line of business. Please note the National Council on Compensation Insurance is working on estimating the impact of the new fee schedule in Virginia, effective January 2018, so that has not been factored in here.

Funding Estimate of Ultimate Loss and ALAE

for Fiscal Year July 1, 2017 through June 30, 2018

Line of Business Exposures Loss Cost Funding Estimate

Workers Compensation $317,004,586 $30.1 $9,527,224

General Liability 1,336,716,299 0.758 1,013,659

Automobile Liability 2,390 321 767,200

All Lines Combined $11,308,083 The exposure base for WC is payroll, and the loss cost is provided per thousand dollars of payroll. The exposure base

for GL is revenue, and the loss cost is provided per thousand of revenue. The exposure base for AL is the number of

vehicles, and the loss cost provided is per vehicle. For all lines of business, we averaged projected exposures for

calendar year 2017 and calendar year 2018 to estimate fiscal year 2018 estimated exposures.

Projections of Payments and Unpaid Losses Projections of unpaid loss and ALAE as of the end of fiscal year 2018 as well as expected payments during the fiscal year can be found on Exhibit 1, Sheet 1 of each section.

Relevant Comments

Comparison with Prior Report The comparisons below are based on data evaluated as of June 30, 2017 in our current report and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected ultimates for changes in estimated exposures since our prior report. Workers Compensation Actual retained reported losses on fiscal years July 1, 1990 through June 30, 2017 have increased $21.150 million since our prior report using data as of June 30, 2015 compared to our projected increase of approximately $19.653 million. Actual reported losses during the past two years are $1.497 million higher than expected based on the selections in our prior report. The majority of the adverse development occurred during fiscal years 2010 through 2014. This was partially offset by favorable development during fiscal years 2015 through 2017. Our estimated ultimate loss and ALAE for all fiscal years has increased by $2.533 million. Details of actual versus expected emergence can be found in Exhibit 8 for WC.

Page 6: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH

OLIVER WYMAN

4

CVB has changed third-party administrators (TPAs) several times during our experience period for WC claims handling, as illustrated below: 7/1/1990 – 6/30/2007: CMI Octagon (CMI) 7/1/2007 – 10/31/2008: Schaffer Companies 11/1/2008 – 10/31/2012: Sedgwick CMS (Sedgwick) 11/1/2012 – current: CorVel Whenever there is a switch in TPAs, there is additional uncertainty in our estimates as the new TPA may have a different philosophy for reserving and settling claims than the prior TPA. For instance, when CVB began utilizing Schaffer, we noted decreases in case reserves of approximately $1.5 million in the loss runs provided by Schaffer compared to our report completed one year prior when the claims were being handled by CMI. Ratios of paid-to-incurred losses were materially higher for fiscal years 2006/07 and 2007/08, which we offered could be attributable to weakened case reserve adequacy as compared to prior years under CMI’s claims management. In contrast, during the first two years after Sedgwick took over claims handling, they increased case reserves by $10.9 million compared to the case reserves under Schaffer. In the following two reports, we observed favorable development. In this report, we have observed adverse development, especially in medical costs and ALAE costs. We will continue to monitor the development as more data becomes available. The change in administrators increases the uncertainty of the underlying loss development data as well. General Liability Reported retained losses on fiscal years July 1, 2004 through June 30, 2017 have increased $2.130 million since our prior report using data as of June 30, 2015 compared to our projected increase of $1.298 million. The adverse development is mainly due to large claim activity in fiscal years 2015 and 2016. Our estimated ultimate loss and ALAE for these periods has increased by $1.185 million since our prior report. Details of actual versus expected emergence can be found in Exhibit 7 for GL. Automobile Liability Reported retained losses on fiscal years July 1, 2004 through June 30, 2017 have increased $1.377 million since our prior report using June 30, 2015 data compared to our projected increase of approximately $1.463 million. Adverse development in fiscal year 2011, due to one large claim closing for more than anticipated, and in fiscal year 2016 was more than offset by favorable development in surrounding fiscal years. Our estimated ultimate loss and ALAE for these periods has decreased by $182 thousand since our prior report due to the favorable development. Details of actual versus expected emergence can be found in Exhibit 7 for AL.

Page 7: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH

OLIVER WYMAN

5

2 Background City of Virginia Beach retains a significant portion of its workers compensation, general liability and automobile liability exposure. The retained limits of liability differ by line of business and by policy period, but range from $200,000 to $2,000,000 on a per occurrence basis. For all years and lines of business, ALAE combines with loss to erode the retention.

Historical Program Retentions

Policy Period Workers

CompensationGeneral Liability

Automobile Liability

3/1/1985 – 2/28/1987 $200,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 3/1/1987 – 2/29/1988 $250,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 3/1/1988 – 2/28/1989 $300,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 3/1/1989 – 2/28/1990 $400,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 3/1/1990 – 2/29/1992 $450,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 3/1/1992 – 2/28/2005 $500,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 3/1/2005 – 2/28/2007 $750,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 3/1/2007 – 2/29/2012 $850,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 3/1/2012 - 2/28/2013 $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 3/1/2013 – 2/28/2018 $1,250,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000

We understand there are five open WC claims for accidents occurring prior to July 1, 1985. We have not been provided historical retentions prior to 1985. Our analysis groups claims by fiscal years ending June 30 even though historical policy periods incept at March 1. Though CVB has deductible exposure back to 1985 for GL and AL, we are only including fiscal years back to 2005 in our analysis for GL and AL since all claims are closed in prior fiscal years.

Page 8: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH

OLIVER WYMAN

6

3 Data Loss data was provided by CVB. For WC, the data is net of non-insurance recoveries such as subrogation. For automobile liability and general liability, the data is gross of recoveries due to systems issues where recoveries could not be removed consistently. The loss data includes ALAE and is valued as of June 30, 2017. We also received AL, GL, and WC loss runs as of 4/30/16 and 4/30/17 to update our triangles. The exposure data includes payroll, revenue and vehicle count and is presented on a consistent basis as the loss data defined above.

Page 9: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH

OLIVER WYMAN

7

4 Methodology To determine our estimate of ultimate loss and ALAE for AL, GL, and WC, we applied a number of generally accepted actuarial techniques. These include the following methods:

Paid development method

Reported development method

Case reserve development method

Reported Bornhuetter-Ferguson method

Paid Bornhuetter-Ferguson method Under the reported development method, the historical reporting pattern is applied directly to the reported loss and ALAE (case reserves plus cumulative paid loss and ALAE) to estimate ultimate loss and ALAE. Paid to date loss and ALAE are then deducted from the estimated ultimate loss and ALAE to produce the estimated total outstanding unpaid. The incurred but not reported (IBNR) reserve equals the total outstanding loss and ALAE reserves minus the case reserves. We selected loss development patterns based on an analysis of CVB and insurance industry loss development experience. Loss development patterns were selected at the various per occurrence retentions. For WC, we estimated insurance industry loss development factors based on information from NCCI for the State of Virginia. For GL and AL, we estimated insurance industry countrywide loss development factors based on information from AM Best. The advantages of the reported development method are that reported loss and ALAE provide a larger statistical data base than paid loss and ALAE (since case reserves are used in addition to payments) and that reported loss and ALAE provide more current information (since payments lag behind the establishment of case reserves). A disadvantage of the reported development method is that its predictive accuracy is dependent on consistent case reserving practices and philosophies. Under the paid development method, a mathematical procedure similar to the reported development method is used. Paid loss and ALAE are used in place of reported loss and ALAE and historical payment patterns are used in place of reporting patterns. Under the case reserve development method, a historical reporting and payment pattern is used to estimate the ratio of unreported loss and ALAE to the case reserves as of the evaluation date. This ratio is then multiplied by the actual case reserves to produce estimated unreported loss and ALAE. Estimated ultimate loss and ALAE equals the sum of the actual paid loss and ALAE, the actual case reserves, and the estimated unreported loss and ALAE. This method is

Page 10: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH

OLIVER WYMAN

8

helpful where there are few open claims or where the history of cumulative paid loss and ALAE is deemed unreliable. Under the reported Bornhuetter-Ferguson method, an historical reporting pattern is used to estimate the percentage of ultimate loss and ALAE which is unreported as of the evaluation date. This percentage is then multiplied by an initial expected ultimate loss and ALAE to produce estimated unreported loss and ALAE. The initial expected ultimate loss and ALAE are based on our review of historical loss costs. Estimated unreported loss and ALAE is also known as IBNR. Estimated ultimate loss and ALAE equals the sum of the actual reported loss and ALAE and the estimated unreported loss and ALAE. The advantage of the reported Bornhuetter-Ferguson method is that estimates of ultimate loss and ALAE tend to be more stable than estimates produced by the reported development method. This is because the estimates based on the reported Bornhuetter-Ferguson method are a weighted average between the estimate based on the reported development method and the expected ultimate loss and ALAE. A disadvantage of the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method is that the estimates are slow to react to changes in reserving practices and are sensitive to a priori estimates of ultimate loss and ALAE. Under the paid Bornhuetter-Ferguson method, a mathematical procedure similar to the reported Bornhuetter-Ferguson method is used. Paid loss and ALAE is used in place of reported loss and ALAE and historical payment patterns are used in place of reporting patterns. Ultimate losses and ALAE are selected for each accident year based on a comparison of results from the loss projection methods. Selected ultimate losses are based on actuarial judgment, with consideration given to the merits of the projection methods, the number of remaining open claims, retention levels, and diagnostic data (ultimate loss costs, average IBNR levels, and IBNR-to-Case ratios). Unpaid loss and ALAE estimates are equal to the ultimate loss and ALAE estimates less cumulative paid losses as of the evaluation date.

Page 11: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH

OLIVER WYMAN

9

5 Distribution and Use This report was prepared for the sole use of CVB’s management in their process of establishing a liability estimate for their WC self-insured program for internal and external financial reporting. All decisions in connection with the implementation or use of advice or recommendations contained in this report are the sole responsibility of CVB. Oliver Wyman’s consent to any distribution of this report (whether herein or in the written agreement pursuant to which this report has been issued) to parties other than CVB does not constitute advice by Oliver Wyman to any such third parties and shall be solely for informational purposes and not for purposes of reliance by any such third parties. Oliver Wyman assumes no liability related to third party use of this report or any actions taken or decisions made as a consequence of the results, advice or recommendations set forth herein. This report should not replace the due diligence on behalf of any such third party.

Page 12: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH

OLIVER WYMAN

10

6 Considerations and Limitations For our analysis, we relied on data and information provided by CVB without independent audit. Though we have reviewed the data for reasonableness and consistency, we have not audited or otherwise verified this data. It should also be noted that our review of data may not always reveal imperfections. We have assumed that the data provided is both accurate and complete. The results of our analysis are dependent on this assumption. If this data or information is inaccurate or incomplete, our findings and conclusions may need to be revised. The prospective fiscal year estimates developed in this analysis are based on estimated loss costs and the projected exposures. It should be noted that prospective period loss and ALAE estimates are directly related to the projected exposures. Therefore, if actual exposures differ from the projection, prospective fiscal year estimates would need to be adjusted accordingly. Where CVB’s own historical data was either (i) not available, (ii) not appropriate or (iii) not sufficiently credible to develop our actuarial assumptions, we supplemented it with external information, as we deemed appropriate. Although we believe these external sources may be more predictive of future CVB experience than any other data of which we are aware, the use of external data adds to the uncertainty associated with our projections. The change in administrators for WC increases the uncertainty in our WC estimates. The volatility in GL and AL due to high retentions and a lack of statistical credibility of historical large losses increases the uncertainty in our estimates for GL and AL. The scope of the project does not include the estimation of any costs other than those described herein. Such ancillary costs may include unallocated loss adjustment expenses (ULAE); excess insurance premiums; the costs of trustee, legal, administrative, risk management and actuarial services; fees and assessments; and costs for surety bonds or letters of credit pertaining to claim liabilities. All excess insurance is considered to be valid and fully collectible. We made no assessment, and do not express any opinion, concerning the collectability of any excess insurance. We have not evaluated the financial strength, claims paying ability or any other factors with regard to CVB’s past, current, and/or prospective excess insurers. We have not included any provision for losses exceeding the policy limits of the coverage provided by excess insurers. We have not examined, nor do we express any opinion regarding, the assets, if any, that are used to provide for the payment obligations associated with the estimates of unpaid costs presented in this report.

Page 13: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH

OLIVER WYMAN

11

Our models may retain more digits than those displayed. In addition, the results of certain calculations may be presented in the exhibits with more or less digits than would be considered significant. As a result, it should be recognized that (i) there may be rounding differences between the results of calculations presented in the exhibits and replications of those calculations based on displayed underlying amounts, and (ii) calculation results may not have been adjusted to reflect the precision of the calculation. Our conclusions are based on an analysis of the CVB data and on the estimation of the outcome of many contingent events. Future costs were developed from the historical claim experience and covered exposure, with adjustments for anticipated changes. Our estimates make no provision for extraordinary future emergence of new classes of losses or types of losses not sufficiently represented in historical databases or which are not yet quantifiable. The sources of uncertainty affecting our estimates are numerous and include factors internal and external to CVB. Internal factors include items such as changes in claim reserving or settlement practices. The most significant external influences include, but are not limited to, changes in the legal, social, or regulatory environment surrounding the claims process. Uncontrollable factors such as general economic conditions also contribute to the variability. While this analysis complies with applicable Actuarial Standards of Practice and Statements of Principles, users of this analysis should recognize that our projections involve estimates of future events, and are subject to economic and statistical variations from expected values. We have not anticipated any extraordinary changes to the legal, social, or economic environment that might affect the frequency or severity of claims. For these reasons, no assurance can be given that the emergence of actual losses will correspond to the projections in this analysis.

Page 14: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH

OLIVER WYMAN 12

7 Acknowledgement of Qualifications The undersigned actuary is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (FCAS), a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries (MAAA), and meets the Qualification Standards of the American Academy of Actuaries to provide the actuarial analysis contained herein.

OLIVER WYMAN ACTUARIAL CONSULTING, INC.:

___________________________ Dana F. Joseph, FCAS, MAAA 100 North Tryon Street, Suite 3600 Charlotte, NC 28202 (704) 374-8413 [email protected]

Page 15: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH

OLIVER WYMAN

13

8 Glossary

Accident Period

The period in which the event giving rise to a claim occurred, regardless of when the claim is actually reported.

Accounting Date

The point in time at which the estimate of unpaid loss and ALAE is evaluated.

Actuarial Central Estimate

An estimate that represents an expected value over the range of reasonably possible outcomes. Such range of reasonably possible outcomes may not include all conceivable outcomes.

Allocated Loss Adjustment Expense (ALAE)

Expense costs associated with the handling and settling of an individual claim that can be directly attributed to the particular claim. Fees paid to outside defense attorneys and investigation firms are examples of this expense cost.

Case Reserves

The unpaid claim estimates established by adjusters on an individual claim basis.

Claim

A demand for payment under the coverage provided by a plan or contract. As used throughout this Glossary, it also includes suits, potentially compensable events, notifications, and unasserted claims.

Claim Frequency

The number of claims that occur over a period of time per unit of exposure.

Claim Reporting Pattern

The rate at which claims are assumed to be reported over time.

Claim Severity

The average cost per claim.

Confidence Level

The probability that the outcome of a random process will not exceed an associated estimate. For example, a 75% confidence level for an unpaid claim estimate of $10 million would indicate

Page 16: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH

OLIVER WYMAN

14

that there is a 75% probability that the actual claim payments will be less than or equal to $10 million. The estimate is defined in the context of the risks modeled in our analysis and may not consider all factors contributing to variability of outcomes.

Credibility

A measure of the predictive value of a body of data.

Development

The change between valuation dates in the observed values of certain fundamental quantities that may be used in the unpaid claim estimation process. For example, the number of reported claims associated with events occurring within a particular period will change from one valuation date to the next until all claims have been reported. In a similar fashion, the paid claim amounts for events occurring within a particular period will change from one valuation date to the next until all claims have been reported and closed. The change in the number of reported claims or the change in the paid claim amounts is referred to as development. The concept of development also applies to reported losses.

Discounted Unpaid Loss Estimate

The unpaid loss amount estimate presented on a basis that reflects the time value of money. In other words, how much would need to be invested as of the accounting date such that principal and interest would be equal to the expected future claim payments as they come due.

Estimated Ultimate Losses

The estimated cost of claims during a period. Ultimate reported losses represent the total of paid claim amounts, case reserves, and IBNR.

Event

The incident or activity that triggers potential for claim or allocated claim adjustment expense payment.

Exposure

A measure of the underlying potential for claim costs.

IBNR

The unpaid claim estimate for: (a) events that have occurred for which claims have not been reported as of the accounting date, (b) future development of the case reserves, (c) claims that have been reported but not yet recorded in the loss listing, and (d) claims that have been closed but that will be reopened.

Loss

The cost associated with a claim. The cost may or may not include loss adjustment expenses.

Page 17: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH

OLIVER WYMAN

15

Loss Adjustment Expenses

The costs of administering, determining coverage for, settling, or defending claims. Loss adjustment expenses include allocated loss adjustment expenses and unallocated loss adjustment expenses.

Loss Cost

The loss amount per exposure unit.

Method

The systematic procedure for developing an actuarial estimate.

Model

A mathematical or empirical representation of a specified phenomenon.

Model Risk

The risk that the methods are not appropriate to the circumstances or the models are not representative of the specified phenomenon.

Paid Losses

The total aggregate dollar amount paid on all reported claims as of a certain date.

Parameter Risk

The risk that the assumptions or parameters used in the methods or models are not representative of future outcomes.

Payment Pattern

The rate at which claims are paid over time.

Process Risk

The uncertainty associated with the projection of future contingencies that are inherently variable, even when the parameters are known with certainty.

Range of Reasonable Estimates

A range of estimates that could be produced by appropriate actuarial methods or alternative sets of assumptions that the actuary judges to be reasonable; a range of reasonable estimates usually does not represent the range of all possible outcomes.

Recorded Claim Reserve or Liability

The provision for unpaid claim amounts shown in a published financial statement or in an internal statement of financial condition.

Report Date

The date on which the claim is first reported or recorded.

Page 18: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017

CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH

OLIVER WYMAN

16

Reported Loss Amount

The total of paid claim amounts and case reserves.

Review Date

The date through which information is considered in the unpaid claim estimate analysis.

Risk Margin

An amount that may be added to the unpaid claim estimate to recognize the uncertainty in the estimate.

Salvage

Recoveries due to the sale of damaged or recovered property.

Subrogation

Recoveries from a third party responsible for the event for which a claim has already been paid.

Unallocated Loss Adjustment Expense (ULAE)

Loss adjustment expenses that cannot be attributed to an individual claim. Typically includes salaries, utilities, and rent apportioned to the claim adjustment expense function but not readily assignable to specific claims.

Undiscounted Unpaid Loss Estimate

The unpaid loss estimate presented on a basis that does not reflect the time value of money.

Unpaid Loss and ALAE Estimate

The estimate of the obligation for future payments resulting from losses and ALAE due to past events.

Valuation Date

The date through which transactions are included in the data used in the unpaid claim estimate analysis.

Page 19: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 1Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Summary of Unpaid Loss & ALAE as of June 30, 2018

Selected Total Unpaid % Paid % Paid Expected Total UnpaidUltimate Loss Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Paid Between Loss & ALAE

Fiscal & ALAE as of as of as of as of 6/30/17 and as ofYears 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/18 6/30/18 6/30/18

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

prior to 7/1/85 na 49,915 99.5% 99.6% 3,891 46,0247/1/85-6/30/86 136,354 17,062 99.5% 99.6% 1,330 15,7327/1/86-6/30/87 206,801 32,627 99.4% 99.5% 2,502 30,1267/1/87-6/30/88 1,138,085 24,316 99.1% 99.1% 1,710 22,6067/1/88-6/30/89 65,552 35,416 98.3% 98.4% 2,207 33,2097/1/89-6/30/90 37,507 23,835 97.4% 97.6% 1,388 22,4477/1/90-6/30/91 2,021,086 131,770 97.0% 97.1% 7,527 124,2437/1/91-6/30/92 1,860,556 44,836 96.7% 96.8% 2,543 42,2937/1/92-6/30/93 2,358,207 43,415 96.2% 96.4% 2,431 40,9847/1/93-6/30/94 2,803,276 25,824 96.0% 96.2% 1,445 24,3807/1/94-6/30/95 2,622,144 0 95.7% 96.0% 0 07/1/95-6/30/96 1,896,756 14,030 95.5% 95.7% 783 13,2477/1/96-6/30/97 2,236,511 12,295 95.2% 95.5% 685 11,6107/1/97-6/30/98 1,964,616 24,270 94.9% 95.2% 1,351 22,9207/1/98-6/30/99 2,141,652 32,494 94.6% 94.9% 1,806 30,6887/1/99-6/30/00 2,466,414 44,559 94.3% 94.6% 2,465 42,0947/1/00-6/30/01 3,856,823 133,208 93.9% 94.3% 8,488 124,7197/1/01-6/30/02 3,989,135 229,796 93.5% 93.9% 15,780 214,0177/1/02-6/30/03 3,114,947 13,606 93.0% 93.5% 999 12,6077/1/03-6/30/04 6,716,457 283,901 92.4% 93.0% 21,369 262,5317/1/04-6/30/05 8,350,746 432,365 91.5% 92.2% 34,671 397,6947/1/05-6/30/06 7,227,106 689,498 90.4% 91.2% 53,437 636,0617/1/06-6/30/07 5,926,999 537,088 89.5% 90.4% 42,399 494,6907/1/07-6/30/08 8,526,874 1,195,445 87.5% 89.4% 174,615 1,020,8307/1/08-6/30/09 7,218,390 789,842 83.6% 87.5% 191,138 598,7057/1/09-6/30/10 5,916,564 1,117,681 78.8% 83.6% 249,956 867,7257/1/10-6/30/11 8,676,082 1,810,956 73.8% 78.8% 350,984 1,459,9737/1/11-6/30/12 7,533,906 1,480,247 67.6% 73.4% 262,416 1,217,8317/1/12-6/30/13 10,882,952 2,895,387 59.8% 66.1% 454,384 2,441,0037/1/13-6/30/14 14,770,597 4,579,618 51.8% 58.5% 636,783 3,942,8367/1/14-6/30/15 9,730,827 4,465,830 44.2% 51.8% 600,983 3,864,8487/1/15-6/30/16 9,456,892 5,824,676 36.6% 44.2% 699,343 5,125,3337/1/16-6/30/17 9,433,996 7,625,958 18.4% 36.6% 1,701,132 5,924,8267/1/17-6/30/18 9,527,224 0 0.0% 18.4% 1,757,652 7,769,572

Total 164,812,035 34,661,766 7,290,589 36,898,401

Current (Short-term) Liability (excludes FY2018)**: 5,532,938as a percent of 6/30/17 Liability: 16.0%

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9).Column (2) is from Exhibit 1, Sheet 3, Column (6).Columns (3) and (4) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheets 2, 4, 6, and industry data.Column (5) equals Column (2) x [Column (4) - Column (3)] / [1.0 - Column (3)].Column (6) equals Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9) - Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (7) - Column (5).** Current (Short-term) liability is calculated as the expected payments during the next 12 months for accidents occurring through the current evaluation date only.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

17

Page 20: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 1Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Summary of Reported Loss & ALAE and IBNR as of June 30, 2018

Selected Total % Reported % Reported Expected TotalUltimate Loss IBNR Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Rpt Between IBNR

Fiscal & ALAE as of as of as of as of 6/30/17 and as ofYears 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/18 6/30/18 6/30/18

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

prior to 7/1/85 na 0 99.9% 99.9% 0 07/1/85-6/30/86 136,354 10,000 99.9% 99.9% 1,222 8,7787/1/86-6/30/87 206,801 20,000 99.9% 99.9% 2,426 17,5747/1/87-6/30/88 1,138,085 20,000 99.8% 99.8% 2,112 17,8887/1/88-6/30/89 65,552 20,000 99.5% 99.6% 1,712 18,2887/1/89-6/30/90 37,507 10,000 99.2% 99.3% 771 9,2297/1/90-6/30/91 2,021,086 18,949 99.1% 99.1% 1,420 17,5287/1/91-6/30/92 1,860,556 37,430 98.9% 99.0% 2,780 34,6507/1/92-6/30/93 2,358,207 29,187 98.8% 98.9% 2,132 27,0557/1/93-6/30/94 2,803,276 13,873 98.7% 98.8% 1,013 12,8607/1/94-6/30/95 2,622,144 0 98.6% 98.7% 0 07/1/95-6/30/96 1,896,756 11,450 98.4% 98.6% 835 10,6157/1/96-6/30/97 2,236,511 10,293 98.3% 98.4% 750 9,5437/1/97-6/30/98 1,964,616 13,464 98.2% 98.3% 981 12,4837/1/98-6/30/99 2,141,652 17,122 98.1% 98.2% 1,243 15,8797/1/99-6/30/00 2,466,414 18,928 97.9% 98.1% 1,372 17,5557/1/00-6/30/01 3,856,823 48,224 97.7% 97.9% 3,525 44,7007/1/01-6/30/02 3,989,135 86,083 97.6% 97.7% 6,195 79,8887/1/02-6/30/03 3,114,947 9,651 97.3% 97.6% 905 8,7467/1/03-6/30/04 6,716,457 147,466 97.0% 97.3% 16,066 131,4007/1/04-6/30/05 8,350,746 222,363 96.5% 96.8% 22,770 199,5947/1/05-6/30/06 7,227,106 306,117 95.8% 96.2% 28,185 277,9337/1/06-6/30/07 5,926,999 236,610 95.4% 95.8% 20,669 215,9417/1/07-6/30/08 8,526,874 455,136 94.7% 95.3% 51,816 403,3207/1/08-6/30/09 7,218,390 289,359 94.0% 94.7% 32,745 256,6147/1/09-6/30/10 5,916,564 400,432 92.4% 94.0% 82,540 317,8927/1/10-6/30/11 8,676,082 652,789 90.5% 92.4% 129,724 523,0647/1/11-6/30/12 7,533,906 836,879 87.3% 90.4% 207,387 629,4927/1/12-6/30/13 10,882,952 1,671,124 80.0% 86.7% 561,170 1,109,9547/1/13-6/30/14 14,770,597 2,433,354 72.0% 79.1% 616,553 1,816,8007/1/14-6/30/15 9,730,827 3,460,587 64.6% 72.0% 724,687 2,735,9007/1/15-6/30/16 9,456,892 4,199,669 57.2% 64.6% 727,009 3,472,6607/1/16-6/30/17 9,433,996 5,839,395 40.9% 57.2% 1,602,655 4,236,7407/1/17-6/30/18 9,527,224 0 0.0% 40.9% 3,901,117 5,626,107

Total 164,812,035 21,545,935 8,756,488 22,316,671

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9).Column (2) is from Exhibit 1, Sheet 3, Column (5).Columns (3) and (4) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheets 1, 3, 5, and industry data.Column (5) equals Column (2) x [Column (4) - Column (3)] / [1.0 - Column (3)].Column (6) equals Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9) - Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (6) - Column (5).

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

18

Page 21: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 1Sheet 3

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Summary of Reserves as of June 30, 2017

Reported Paid Case IBNR Total UnpaidSelected Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Reserves Reserves Loss & ALAE

Fiscal Ultimate as of as of as of as of as ofYears Loss & ALAE 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/17

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

prior to 7/1/85 na na na 49,915 na 49,9157/1/85-6/30/86 136,354 * 126,354 119,292 7,062 10,000 17,0627/1/86-6/30/87 206,801 * 186,801 174,173 12,627 20,000 32,6277/1/87-6/30/88 1,138,085 * 1,118,085 1,113,769 4,316 20,000 24,3167/1/88-6/30/89 65,552 * 45,552 30,136 15,416 20,000 35,4167/1/89-6/30/90 37,507 * 27,507 13,672 13,835 10,000 23,8357/1/90-6/30/91 2,021,086 2,002,138 1,889,316 112,821 18,949 131,7707/1/91-6/30/92 1,860,556 1,823,126 1,815,720 7,405 37,430 44,8367/1/92-6/30/93 2,358,207 2,329,020 2,314,792 14,228 29,187 43,4157/1/93-6/30/94 2,803,276 2,789,403 2,777,452 11,951 13,873 25,8247/1/94-6/30/95 2,622,144 2,622,144 2,622,144 0 0 07/1/95-6/30/96 1,896,756 1,885,306 1,882,726 2,580 11,450 14,0307/1/96-6/30/97 2,236,511 2,226,218 2,224,216 2,002 10,293 12,2957/1/97-6/30/98 1,964,616 1,951,152 1,940,346 10,806 13,464 24,2707/1/98-6/30/99 2,141,652 2,124,530 2,109,158 15,372 17,122 32,4947/1/99-6/30/00 2,466,414 2,447,486 2,421,855 25,631 18,928 44,5597/1/00-6/30/01 3,856,823 3,808,599 3,723,616 84,983 48,224 133,2087/1/01-6/30/02 3,989,135 3,903,053 3,759,339 143,714 86,083 229,7967/1/02-6/30/03 3,114,947 3,105,296 3,101,341 3,954 9,651 13,6067/1/03-6/30/04 6,716,457 6,568,992 6,432,557 136,435 147,466 283,9017/1/04-6/30/05 8,350,746 8,128,383 7,918,381 210,002 222,363 432,3657/1/05-6/30/06 7,227,106 6,920,989 6,537,608 383,381 306,117 689,4987/1/06-6/30/07 5,926,999 5,690,388 5,389,910 300,478 236,610 537,0887/1/07-6/30/08 8,526,874 8,071,738 7,331,429 740,309 455,136 1,195,4457/1/08-6/30/09 7,218,390 6,929,030 6,428,547 500,483 289,359 789,8427/1/09-6/30/10 5,916,564 5,516,133 4,798,883 717,249 400,432 1,117,6817/1/10-6/30/11 8,676,082 8,023,293 6,865,126 1,158,167 652,789 1,810,9567/1/11-6/30/12 7,533,906 6,697,027 6,053,659 643,367 836,879 1,480,2477/1/12-6/30/13 10,882,952 9,211,828 7,987,565 1,224,263 1,671,124 2,895,3877/1/13-6/30/14 14,770,597 12,337,243 10,190,978 2,146,265 2,433,354 4,579,6187/1/14-6/30/15 9,730,827 6,270,241 5,264,997 1,005,244 3,460,587 4,465,8307/1/15-6/30/16 9,456,892 5,257,223 3,632,216 1,625,007 4,199,669 5,824,6767/1/16-6/30/17 9,433,996 3,594,601 1,808,038 1,786,563 5,839,395 7,625,958

Total 155,284,811 133,738,876 120,672,960 13,115,831 21,545,935 34,661,766

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9).Columns (2) and (3) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (4) equals Column (2) - Column (3). For periods prior to 7/1/1985, we are including case reserves for open claims only, as reported by City of Virginia Beach. Column (5) equals Column (1) - Column (2).Column (6) equals Column (4) + Column (5).* For fiscal years 1986 through 1990, only open claims were provided and are estimated here.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

19

Page 22: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 1Sheet 4

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Estimate of Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Reported Paid Reported Paid Reported Paid Implied OpenLoss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Bornhuetter- Bornhuetter- Case Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Implied Open and IBNR Selected Implied

Fiscal Development Development Ferguson Ferguson Development as of as of and IBNR Claim Counts Ultimate Loss & ALAEYears Method Method Method Method Method 6/30/17 6/30/17 Claim Counts within Retention Loss & ALAE Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8a) (8b) (9) (10)

7/1/85-6/30/86 na na na na 127,897 126,354 * 119,292 * 1 1 136,354 * na 7/1/86-6/30/87 na na na na 189,744 186,801 * 174,173 * 1 1 206,801 * na 7/1/87-6/30/88 na na na na 1,119,327 1,118,085 * 1,113,769 * 5 1 1,138,085 * na 7/1/88-6/30/89 na na na na 51,333 45,552 * 30,136 * 2 2 65,552 * na 7/1/89-6/30/90 na na na na 33,392 27,507 * 13,672 * 1 1 37,507 * na 7/1/90-6/30/91 2,021,086 1,948,403 na na 2,052,626 2,002,138 1,889,316 2 1 2,021,086 na 7/1/91-6/30/92 1,842,618 1,878,494 na na 1,826,556 1,823,126 1,815,720 2 2 1,860,556 na 7/1/92-6/30/93 2,358,207 2,406,405 na na 2,335,873 2,329,020 2,314,792 1 1 2,358,207 na 7/1/93-6/30/94 2,827,150 2,894,163 na na 2,795,318 2,789,403 2,777,452 2 1 2,803,276 na 7/1/94-6/30/95 2,660,462 2,739,142 na na 2,622,144 2,622,144 2,622,144 0 0 2,622,144 na 7/1/95-6/30/96 1,915,058 1,971,932 na na 1,886,655 1,885,306 1,882,726 1 1 1,896,756 na 7/1/96-6/30/97 2,264,159 2,336,134 na na 2,227,295 2,226,218 2,224,216 2 1 2,236,511 na 7/1/97-6/30/98 1,987,067 2,044,042 na na 1,957,133 1,951,152 1,940,346 1 1 1,964,616 na 7/1/98-6/30/99 2,166,759 2,228,885 na na 2,133,283 2,124,530 2,109,158 1 1 2,141,652 na 7/1/99-6/30/00 2,500,018 2,567,867 2,518,076 2,612,875 2,462,510 2,447,486 2,421,855 3 3 2,466,414 12.67/1/00-6/30/01 3,896,941 3,964,377 3,891,490 3,945,678 3,859,215 3,808,599 3,723,616 5 5 3,856,823 18.67/1/01-6/30/02 4,000,782 4,021,582 4,000,911 4,020,569 3,989,135 3,903,053 3,759,339 2 2 3,989,135 18.17/1/02-6/30/03 3,191,318 3,336,118 3,223,674 3,410,401 3,107,750 3,105,296 3,101,341 1 1 3,114,947 13.27/1/03-6/30/04 6,773,909 6,962,412 6,712,347 6,793,196 6,659,006 6,568,992 6,432,557 9 6 6,716,457 27.07/1/04-6/30/05 8,424,206 8,650,567 8,311,561 8,359,899 8,277,287 8,128,383 7,918,381 11 9 8,350,746 31.87/1/05-6/30/06 7,220,943 7,229,160 7,164,987 7,099,511 7,215,240 6,920,989 6,537,608 9 8 7,227,106 26.07/1/06-6/30/07 5,965,594 6,020,340 5,985,408 6,059,583 5,926,999 5,690,388 5,389,910 11 11 5,926,999 20.37/1/07-6/30/08 8,526,874 8,374,304 8,443,807 8,199,501 8,627,070 8,071,738 7,331,429 16 14 8,526,874 27.87/1/08-6/30/09 7,372,781 7,692,318 7,369,562 7,631,035 7,218,390 6,929,030 6,428,547 11 9 7,218,390 23.07/1/09-6/30/10 5,968,648 6,086,981 6,082,817 6,380,606 5,916,564 5,516,133 4,798,883 12 12 5,916,564 19.07/1/10-6/30/11 8,861,779 9,308,499 8,745,762 8,869,387 8,676,082 8,023,293 6,865,126 14 14 8,676,082 27.97/1/11-6/30/12 7,673,963 8,953,219 7,711,862 8,635,335 7,113,733 6,697,027 6,053,659 17 16 7,533,906 24.07/1/12-6/30/13 11,514,740 13,364,994 10,882,952 11,349,516 10,421,824 9,211,828 7,987,565 19 19 10,882,952 34.67/1/13-6/30/14 17,137,290 19,692,502 14,770,597 14,382,718 15,307,366 12,337,243 10,190,978 39 38 14,770,597 46.27/1/14-6/30/15 9,710,540 11,898,897 9,516,570 10,373,599 8,022,591 6,270,241 5,264,997 36 36 9,730,827 29.67/1/15-6/30/16 9,198,272 9,913,125 9,370,764 9,715,276 8,651,214 5,257,223 3,632,216 60 60 9,456,892 28.17/1/16-6/30/17 8,778,659 9,800,341 9,249,971 9,618,022 8,283,923 3,594,601 1,808,038 224 224 9,433,996 28.9

Total 156,759,825 168,285,206 133,953,117 137,456,706 151,094,476 133,738,876 120,672,960 520 501 155,284,811

7/1/17-6/30/18 9,527,224 30.1

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 2, Sheet 1, Column (3).Column (2) is from Exhibit 2, Sheet 3, Column (3).Column (3) is from Exhibit 2, Sheet 5, Column (5).Column (4) is from Exhibit 2, Sheet 6, Column (5).Column (5) is from Exhibit 2, Sheet 7, Column (6).Columns (6) and (7) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (8a) is from Exhibit 4, Sheet 1, Column (6).Column (8b) based on Column (8a) and individual claim detail.Column (9) based on Columns (1) through (8b) and actuarial judgment. Fiscal year 7/1/17-6/30/18 is from Exhibit 3, Sheet 1, Column (7).Column (10) equals Column (9) / Payroll (000's).* For fiscal years 1986 through 1990, only open claims were provided and are estimated here.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

20

Page 23: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Reported Loss & ALAE Development Method

Reported IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE CostYears Retention 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Payroll (000's) (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/85-6/30/86 200K na 1.001 na na na 7/1/86-6/30/87 200K/250K na 1.001 na na na 7/1/87-6/30/88 250K/300K na 1.002 na na na 7/1/88-6/30/89 300K/400K na 1.005 na na na 7/1/89-6/30/90 400K/450K na 1.008 na na na 7/1/90-6/30/91 450K 2,002,138 1.009 2,021,086 na na 7/1/91-6/30/92 450K/500K 1,823,126 1.011 1,842,618 na na 7/1/92-6/30/93 500K 2,329,020 1.013 2,358,207 na na 7/1/93-6/30/94 500K 2,789,403 1.014 2,827,150 na na 7/1/94-6/30/95 500K 2,622,144 1.015 2,660,462 na na 7/1/95-6/30/96 500K 1,885,306 1.016 1,915,058 na na 7/1/96-6/30/97 500K 2,226,218 1.017 2,264,159 na na 7/1/97-6/30/98 500K 1,951,152 1.018 1,987,067 na na 7/1/98-6/30/99 500K 2,124,530 1.020 2,166,759 na na 7/1/99-6/30/00 500K 2,447,486 1.021 2,500,018 195,789 12.87/1/00-6/30/01 500K 3,808,599 1.023 3,896,941 207,170 18.87/1/01-6/30/02 500K 3,903,053 1.025 4,000,782 220,877 18.17/1/02-6/30/03 500K 3,105,296 1.028 3,191,318 235,632 13.57/1/03-6/30/04 500K 6,568,992 1.031 6,773,909 248,418 27.37/1/04-6/30/05 500K/750K 8,128,383 1.036 8,424,206 262,426 32.17/1/05-6/30/06 750K 6,920,989 1.043 7,220,943 277,717 26.07/1/06-6/30/07 750K/850K 5,690,388 1.048 5,965,594 292,480 20.47/1/07-6/30/08 850K 8,071,738 1.056 8,526,874 306,475 27.87/1/08-6/30/09 850K 6,929,030 1.064 7,372,781 313,390 23.57/1/09-6/30/10 850K 5,516,133 1.082 5,968,648 311,357 19.27/1/10-6/30/11 850K 8,023,293 1.105 8,861,779 310,681 28.57/1/11-6/30/12 850K/1M 6,697,027 1.146 7,673,963 313,282 24.57/1/12-6/30/13 1M/1.25M 9,211,828 1.250 11,514,740 314,878 36.67/1/13-6/30/14 1.25M 12,337,243 1.389 17,137,290 320,036 53.57/1/14-6/30/15 1.25M 6,270,241 1.549 9,710,540 328,987 29.57/1/15-6/30/16 1.25M 5,257,223 1.750 9,198,272 336,298 27.47/1/16-6/30/17 1.25M 3,594,601 2.442 8,778,659 326,620 26.9

Total 132,234,578 156,759,825 5,122,512

Notes:Columns (1) and (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheets 1, 3, and 5, and industry data.

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

21

Page 24: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Reported Loss & ALAE Development Method

Section I - Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Reported Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Payroll (000's) (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/99-6/30/00 2,447,486 1.008 2,466,414 195,789 12.67/1/00-6/30/01 3,808,599 1.009 3,843,451 207,170 18.67/1/01-6/30/02 3,724,477 1.011 3,764,458 220,877 17.07/1/02-6/30/03 3,069,968 1.013 3,108,554 235,632 13.27/1/03-6/30/04 5,165,675 1.015 5,241,514 248,418 21.17/1/04-6/30/05 5,914,220 1.017 6,014,895 262,426 22.97/1/05-6/30/06 4,802,307 1.020 4,896,231 277,717 17.67/1/06-6/30/07 4,930,227 1.022 5,040,595 292,480 17.27/1/07-6/30/08 4,841,102 1.026 4,966,580 306,475 16.27/1/08-6/30/09 4,544,104 1.033 4,691,857 313,390 15.07/1/09-6/30/10 4,789,834 1.044 5,002,646 311,357 16.17/1/10-6/30/11 5,391,968 1.060 5,716,611 310,681 18.47/1/11-6/30/12 4,927,842 1.080 5,320,459 313,282 17.07/1/12-6/30/13 7,417,353 1.116 8,279,289 314,878 26.37/1/13-6/30/14 9,996,868 1.181 11,809,354 320,036 36.97/1/14-6/30/15 6,199,781 1.261 7,816,143 328,987 23.87/1/15-6/30/16 4,856,294 1.394 6,771,668 336,298 20.17/1/16-6/30/17 3,587,741 1.852 6,645,002 326,620 20.3

Total 90,415,846 101,395,719 5,122,512

Section II - Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $500,000

Reported Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Payroll (000's) (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/99-6/30/00 2,447,486 1.021 2,500,018 195,789 12.87/1/00-6/30/01 3,808,599 1.023 3,896,941 207,170 18.87/1/01-6/30/02 3,903,053 1.025 4,000,782 220,877 18.17/1/02-6/30/03 3,105,296 1.028 3,191,318 235,632 13.57/1/03-6/30/04 6,568,992 1.031 6,773,909 248,418 27.37/1/04-6/30/05 7,827,740 1.035 8,101,710 262,426 30.97/1/05-6/30/06 6,542,711 1.039 6,798,120 277,717 24.57/1/06-6/30/07 5,607,445 1.043 5,849,868 292,480 20.07/1/07-6/30/08 6,813,358 1.050 7,152,257 306,475 23.37/1/08-6/30/09 5,759,800 1.057 6,088,066 313,390 19.47/1/09-6/30/10 5,484,609 1.074 5,889,998 311,357 18.97/1/10-6/30/11 7,204,868 1.094 7,882,193 310,681 25.47/1/11-6/30/12 6,008,353 1.128 6,778,278 313,282 21.67/1/12-6/30/13 8,896,689 1.192 10,608,299 314,878 33.77/1/13-6/30/14 11,319,455 1.284 14,532,907 320,036 45.47/1/14-6/30/15 6,270,241 1.421 8,909,843 328,987 27.17/1/15-6/30/16 5,257,223 1.600 8,413,522 336,298 25.07/1/16-6/30/17 3,594,601 2.205 7,927,820 326,620 24.3

Total 106,420,519 125,295,849 5,122,512

Section III - Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,250,000

Reported Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Payroll (000's) (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/99-6/30/00 2,447,486 1.030 2,521,365 195,789 12.97/1/00-6/30/01 3,808,599 1.033 3,932,928 207,170 19.07/1/01-6/30/02 3,903,053 1.036 4,041,936 220,877 18.37/1/02-6/30/03 3,105,296 1.039 3,226,299 235,632 13.77/1/03-6/30/04 6,885,632 1.043 7,180,396 248,418 28.97/1/04-6/30/05 8,299,331 1.047 8,689,238 262,426 33.17/1/05-6/30/06 6,926,938 1.051 7,282,501 277,717 26.27/1/06-6/30/07 5,690,388 1.056 6,009,415 292,480 20.57/1/07-6/30/08 8,693,558 1.063 9,241,534 306,475 30.27/1/08-6/30/09 7,086,452 1.071 7,590,242 313,390 24.27/1/09-6/30/10 5,516,133 1.090 6,013,445 311,357 19.37/1/10-6/30/11 8,023,293 1.115 8,946,001 310,681 28.87/1/11-6/30/12 6,885,664 1.159 7,983,635 313,282 25.57/1/12-6/30/13 9,211,828 1.264 11,647,636 314,878 37.07/1/13-6/30/14 12,337,243 1.389 17,137,290 320,036 53.57/1/14-6/30/15 6,270,241 1.549 9,710,540 328,987 29.57/1/15-6/30/16 5,257,223 1.750 9,198,272 336,298 27.47/1/16-6/30/17 3,594,601 2.442 8,778,659 326,620 26.9

Total 113,942,959 139,131,329 5,122,512

Notes:Columns (1) and (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheets 1, 3, and 5.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

22

Page 25: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 3

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Paid Loss & ALAE Development Method

Paid IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE CostYears Retention 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Payroll (000's) (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/85-6/30/86 200K na 1.005 na na na 7/1/86-6/30/87 200K/250K na 1.006 na na na 7/1/87-6/30/88 250K/300K na 1.009 na na na 7/1/88-6/30/89 300K/400K na 1.017 na na na 7/1/89-6/30/90 400K/450K na 1.026 na na na 7/1/90-6/30/91 450K 1,889,316 1.031 1,948,403 na na 7/1/91-6/30/92 450K/500K 1,815,720 1.035 1,878,494 na na 7/1/92-6/30/93 500K 2,314,792 1.040 2,406,405 na na 7/1/93-6/30/94 500K 2,777,452 1.042 2,894,163 na na 7/1/94-6/30/95 500K 2,622,144 1.045 2,739,142 na na 7/1/95-6/30/96 500K 1,882,726 1.047 1,971,932 na na 7/1/96-6/30/97 500K 2,224,216 1.050 2,336,134 na na 7/1/97-6/30/98 500K 1,940,346 1.053 2,044,042 na na 7/1/98-6/30/99 500K 2,109,158 1.057 2,228,885 na na 7/1/99-6/30/00 500K 2,421,855 1.060 2,567,867 195,789 13.17/1/00-6/30/01 500K 3,723,616 1.065 3,964,377 207,170 19.17/1/01-6/30/02 500K 3,759,339 1.070 4,021,582 220,877 18.27/1/02-6/30/03 500K 3,101,341 1.076 3,336,118 235,632 14.27/1/03-6/30/04 500K 6,432,557 1.082 6,962,412 248,418 28.07/1/04-6/30/05 500K/750K 7,918,381 1.092 8,650,567 262,426 33.07/1/05-6/30/06 750K 6,537,608 1.106 7,229,160 277,717 26.07/1/06-6/30/07 750K/850K 5,389,910 1.117 6,020,340 292,480 20.67/1/07-6/30/08 850K 7,331,429 1.142 8,374,304 306,475 27.37/1/08-6/30/09 850K 6,428,547 1.197 7,692,318 313,390 24.57/1/09-6/30/10 850K 4,798,883 1.268 6,086,981 311,357 19.57/1/10-6/30/11 850K 6,865,126 1.356 9,308,499 310,681 30.07/1/11-6/30/12 850K/1M 6,053,659 1.479 8,953,219 313,282 28.67/1/12-6/30/13 1M/1.25M 7,987,565 1.673 13,364,994 314,878 42.47/1/13-6/30/14 1.25M 10,190,978 1.932 19,692,502 320,036 61.57/1/14-6/30/15 1.25M 5,264,997 2.260 11,898,897 328,987 36.27/1/15-6/30/16 1.25M 3,632,216 2.729 9,913,125 336,298 29.57/1/16-6/30/17 1.25M 1,808,038 5.420 9,800,341 326,620 30.0

Total 119,221,918 168,285,206 5,122,512

Notes:Columns (1) and (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheets 2, 4, and 6, and industry data.

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

23

Page 26: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 4

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Paid Loss & ALAE Development Method

Section I - Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Paid Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Payroll (000's) (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/99-6/30/00 2,421,855 1.022 2,475,355 195,789 12.67/1/00-6/30/01 3,723,616 1.025 3,818,492 207,170 18.47/1/01-6/30/02 3,642,940 1.029 3,749,886 220,877 17.07/1/02-6/30/03 3,066,014 1.034 3,169,704 235,632 13.57/1/03-6/30/04 5,112,544 1.039 5,311,251 248,418 21.47/1/04-6/30/05 5,859,323 1.045 6,121,832 262,426 23.37/1/05-6/30/06 4,794,639 1.051 5,041,279 277,717 18.27/1/06-6/30/07 4,779,640 1.059 5,061,789 292,480 17.37/1/07-6/30/08 4,562,204 1.069 4,875,552 306,475 15.97/1/08-6/30/09 4,361,824 1.087 4,742,451 313,390 15.17/1/09-6/30/10 4,552,945 1.111 5,058,276 311,357 16.27/1/10-6/30/11 5,327,564 1.149 6,121,378 310,681 19.77/1/11-6/30/12 4,696,226 1.199 5,630,974 313,282 18.07/1/12-6/30/13 6,997,169 1.270 8,885,021 314,878 28.27/1/13-6/30/14 9,041,029 1.377 12,448,798 320,036 38.97/1/14-6/30/15 5,264,997 1.557 8,198,056 328,987 24.97/1/15-6/30/16 3,579,721 1.864 6,671,711 336,298 19.87/1/16-6/30/17 1,808,038 3.570 6,455,195 326,620 19.8

Total 83,592,291 103,837,001 5,122,512

Section II - Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $500,000

Paid Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Payroll (000's) (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/99-6/30/00 2,421,855 1.060 2,567,867 195,789 13.17/1/00-6/30/01 3,723,616 1.065 3,964,377 207,170 19.17/1/01-6/30/02 3,759,339 1.070 4,021,582 220,877 18.27/1/02-6/30/03 3,101,341 1.076 3,336,118 235,632 14.27/1/03-6/30/04 6,432,557 1.082 6,962,412 248,418 28.07/1/04-6/30/05 7,668,381 1.090 8,360,946 262,426 31.97/1/05-6/30/06 6,362,680 1.099 6,992,626 277,717 25.27/1/06-6/30/07 5,377,955 1.109 5,963,343 292,480 20.47/1/07-6/30/08 6,326,829 1.127 7,128,872 306,475 23.37/1/08-6/30/09 5,482,158 1.170 6,416,405 313,390 20.57/1/09-6/30/10 4,798,883 1.227 5,890,069 311,357 18.97/1/10-6/30/11 6,625,247 1.301 8,617,949 310,681 27.77/1/11-6/30/12 5,562,198 1.396 7,762,673 313,282 24.87/1/12-6/30/13 7,681,804 1.524 11,707,359 314,878 37.27/1/13-6/30/14 9,654,382 1.712 16,530,698 320,036 51.77/1/14-6/30/15 5,264,997 1.992 10,488,975 328,987 31.97/1/15-6/30/16 3,632,216 2.391 8,684,491 336,298 25.87/1/16-6/30/17 1,808,038 4.684 8,468,162 326,620 25.9

Total 95,684,478 133,864,926 5,122,512

Section III - Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,250,000

Paid Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Payroll (000's) (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/99-6/30/00 2,421,855 1.076 2,605,331 195,789 13.37/1/00-6/30/01 3,723,616 1.081 4,023,474 207,170 19.47/1/01-6/30/02 3,759,339 1.086 4,083,142 220,877 18.57/1/02-6/30/03 3,101,341 1.093 3,388,806 235,632 14.47/1/03-6/30/04 6,574,390 1.100 7,232,045 248,418 29.17/1/04-6/30/05 7,919,840 1.109 8,781,626 262,426 33.57/1/05-6/30/06 6,537,608 1.118 7,311,408 277,717 26.37/1/06-6/30/07 5,389,910 1.129 6,085,988 292,480 20.87/1/07-6/30/08 7,335,599 1.158 8,492,612 306,475 27.77/1/08-6/30/09 6,462,477 1.223 7,902,052 313,390 25.27/1/09-6/30/10 4,798,883 1.309 6,283,892 311,357 20.27/1/10-6/30/11 6,865,126 1.411 9,687,021 310,681 31.27/1/11-6/30/12 6,053,659 1.543 9,339,709 313,282 29.87/1/12-6/30/13 7,987,565 1.711 13,663,417 314,878 43.47/1/13-6/30/14 10,190,978 1.932 19,692,502 320,036 61.57/1/14-6/30/15 5,264,997 2.260 11,898,897 328,987 36.27/1/15-6/30/16 3,632,216 2.729 9,913,125 336,298 29.57/1/16-6/30/17 1,808,038 5.420 9,800,341 326,620 30.0

Total 99,827,439 150,185,389 5,122,512

Notes:Columns (1) and (4) provided by City of Virginia BeachThe age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheets 2, 4, and 6.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

24

Page 27: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 5

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Reported Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method

Expected Reported EstimatedEstimate Age to Loss & ALAE Ultimate Indicated

Fiscal of Ultimate Ultimate Unreported as of Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAEYears Loss & ALAE Factors Loss & ALAE 6/30/17 (3) + (4) Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

7/1/99-6/30/00 3,359,409 1.021 70,590 2,447,486 2,518,076 12.97/1/00-6/30/01 3,656,475 1.023 82,891 3,808,599 3,891,490 18.87/1/01-6/30/02 4,006,047 1.025 97,858 3,903,053 4,000,911 18.17/1/02-6/30/03 4,391,663 1.028 118,378 3,105,296 3,223,674 13.77/1/03-6/30/04 4,738,872 1.031 143,355 6,568,992 6,712,347 27.07/1/04-6/30/05 5,216,407 1.036 183,178 8,128,383 8,311,561 31.77/1/05-6/30/06 5,873,871 1.043 243,998 6,920,989 7,164,987 25.87/1/06-6/30/07 6,395,095 1.048 295,020 5,690,388 5,985,408 20.57/1/07-6/30/08 6,970,632 1.056 372,069 8,071,738 8,443,807 27.67/1/08-6/30/09 7,319,299 1.064 440,532 6,929,030 7,369,562 23.57/1/09-6/30/10 7,474,525 1.082 566,684 5,516,133 6,082,817 19.57/1/10-6/30/11 7,635,617 1.105 722,469 8,023,293 8,745,762 28.27/1/11-6/30/12 7,971,659 1.146 1,014,835 6,697,027 7,711,862 24.67/1/12-6/30/13 8,355,750 1.250 1,671,124 9,211,828 10,882,952 34.67/1/13-6/30/14 8,687,642 1.389 2,433,354 12,337,243 14,770,597 46.27/1/14-6/30/15 9,163,045 1.549 3,246,330 6,270,241 9,516,570 28.97/1/15-6/30/16 9,600,862 1.750 4,113,541 5,257,223 9,370,764 27.97/1/16-6/30/17 9,576,777 2.442 5,655,370 3,594,601 9,249,971 28.3

Total 120,393,646 21,471,574 112,481,543 133,953,117

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 3, Sheet 1, Column (9).The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheets 1, 3, and 5, and industry dataColumn (3) equals Column (1) x [1.0 - 1.0 / Column (2)].Column (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (6) equals Column (5) / Payroll (000's).

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

25

Page 28: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 6

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Paid Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method

Expected Paid EstimatedEstimate Age to Loss & ALAE Ultimate Indicated

Fiscal of Ultimate Ultimate Unpaid as of Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAEYears Loss & ALAE Factors Loss & ALAE 6/30/17 (3) + (4) Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

7/1/99-6/30/00 3,359,409 1.060 191,020 2,421,855 2,612,875 13.37/1/00-6/30/01 3,656,475 1.065 222,062 3,723,616 3,945,678 19.07/1/01-6/30/02 4,006,047 1.070 261,230 3,759,339 4,020,569 18.27/1/02-6/30/03 4,391,663 1.076 309,059 3,101,341 3,410,401 14.57/1/03-6/30/04 4,738,872 1.082 360,639 6,432,557 6,793,196 27.37/1/04-6/30/05 5,216,407 1.092 441,518 7,918,381 8,359,899 31.97/1/05-6/30/06 5,873,871 1.106 561,903 6,537,608 7,099,511 25.67/1/06-6/30/07 6,395,095 1.117 669,673 5,389,910 6,059,583 20.77/1/07-6/30/08 6,970,632 1.142 868,071 7,331,429 8,199,501 26.87/1/08-6/30/09 7,319,299 1.197 1,202,488 6,428,547 7,631,035 24.37/1/09-6/30/10 7,474,525 1.268 1,581,723 4,798,883 6,380,606 20.57/1/10-6/30/11 7,635,617 1.356 2,004,261 6,865,126 8,869,387 28.57/1/11-6/30/12 7,971,659 1.479 2,581,675 6,053,659 8,635,335 27.67/1/12-6/30/13 8,355,750 1.673 3,361,951 7,987,565 11,349,516 36.07/1/13-6/30/14 8,687,642 1.932 4,191,740 10,190,978 14,382,718 44.97/1/14-6/30/15 9,163,045 2.260 5,108,601 5,264,997 10,373,599 31.57/1/15-6/30/16 9,600,862 2.729 6,083,060 3,632,216 9,715,276 28.97/1/16-6/30/17 9,576,777 5.420 7,809,983 1,808,038 9,618,022 29.4

Total 120,393,646 37,810,658 99,646,048 137,456,706

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 3, Sheet 1, Column (9).The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheets 2, 4, and 6, and industry dataColumn (3) equals Column (1) x [1.0 - 1.0 / Column (2)].Column (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (6) equals Column (5) / Payroll (000's).

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

26

Page 29: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 7

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Case Development Method

CasePaid Outstanding Percent Percent Incurred

Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE of Ultimate of Ultimate But Not Estimated IndicatedFiscal as of as of Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Reported Ultimate Loss & ALAEYears 6/30/17 6/30/17 Reported Paid Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

7/1/85-6/30/86 * 119,292 7,062 99.9% 99.5% 1,544 127,897 na 7/1/86-6/30/87 * 174,173 12,627 99.9% 99.4% 2,943 189,744 na 7/1/87-6/30/88 * 1,113,769 4,316 99.8% 99.1% 1,243 1,119,327 na 7/1/88-6/30/89 * 30,136 15,416 99.5% 98.3% 5,781 51,333 na 7/1/89-6/30/90 * 13,672 13,835 99.2% 97.4% 5,885 33,392 na 7/1/90-6/30/91 1,889,316 112,821 99.1% 97.0% 50,488 2,052,626 na 7/1/91-6/30/92 1,815,720 7,405 98.9% 96.7% 3,430 1,826,556 na 7/1/92-6/30/93 2,314,792 14,228 98.8% 96.2% 6,854 2,335,873 na 7/1/93-6/30/94 2,777,452 11,951 98.7% 96.0% 5,915 2,795,318 na 7/1/94-6/30/95 2,622,144 0 98.6% 95.7% 0 2,622,144 na 7/1/95-6/30/96 1,882,726 2,580 98.4% 95.5% 1,349 1,886,655 na 7/1/96-6/30/97 2,224,216 2,002 98.3% 95.2% 1,077 2,227,295 na 7/1/97-6/30/98 1,940,346 10,806 98.2% 94.9% 5,981 1,957,133 na 7/1/98-6/30/99 2,109,158 15,372 98.1% 94.6% 8,753 2,133,283 na 7/1/99-6/30/00 2,421,855 25,631 97.9% 94.3% 15,024 2,462,510 12.67/1/00-6/30/01 3,723,616 84,983 97.7% 93.9% 50,616 3,859,215 18.67/1/01-6/30/02 3,759,339 143,714 97.6% 93.5% 86,083 3,989,135 18.17/1/02-6/30/03 3,101,341 3,954 97.3% 93.0% 2,455 3,107,750 13.27/1/03-6/30/04 6,432,557 136,435 97.0% 92.4% 90,014 6,659,006 26.87/1/04-6/30/05 7,918,381 210,002 96.5% 91.5% 148,904 8,277,287 31.57/1/05-6/30/06 6,537,608 383,381 95.8% 90.4% 294,251 7,215,240 26.07/1/06-6/30/07 5,389,910 300,478 95.4% 89.5% 236,610 5,926,999 20.37/1/07-6/30/08 7,331,429 740,309 94.7% 87.5% 555,332 8,627,070 28.17/1/08-6/30/09 6,428,547 500,483 94.0% 83.6% 289,359 7,218,390 23.07/1/09-6/30/10 4,798,883 717,249 92.4% 78.8% 400,432 5,916,564 19.07/1/10-6/30/11 6,865,126 1,158,167 90.5% 73.8% 652,789 8,676,082 27.97/1/11-6/30/12 6,053,659 643,367 87.3% 67.6% 416,706 7,113,733 22.77/1/12-6/30/13 7,987,565 1,224,263 80.0% 59.8% 1,209,996 10,421,824 33.17/1/13-6/30/14 10,190,978 2,146,265 72.0% 51.8% 2,970,122 15,307,366 47.87/1/14-6/30/15 5,264,997 1,005,244 64.6% 44.2% 1,752,350 8,022,591 24.47/1/15-6/30/16 3,632,216 1,625,007 57.2% 36.6% 3,393,991 8,651,214 25.77/1/16-6/30/17 1,808,038 1,786,563 40.9% 18.4% 4,689,321 8,283,923 25.4

Total 120,672,960 13,065,916 17,355,600 151,094,476

Notes:Columns (1) and (2) provided by City of Virginia Beach.The factors in Column (3) equal 1.0 / Exhibit 2, Sheet 1, Column (2).The factors in Column (4) equal 1.0 / Exhibit 2, Sheet 3, Column (2).Column (5) equals Column (2) x [1.0 - Column (3)] / [Column (3) - Column (4)]Column (6) equals Column (1) + Column (2) + Column (5).Column (7) equals Column (6) / Payroll (000's)* Fiscal years 1986 through 1990 only include open claims

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

27

Page 30: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Loss Cost Method Summary

Smoothed Smoothed Smoothed Smoothed Smoothed Smoothed SmoothedSelected Selected Selected Selected Selected Selected Retained Estimated

Fiscal Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Payroll UltimateYears Retention** Cost @ $250,000 Cost @ $500,000 Cost @ $750,000 Cost @ $850,000 Cost @ $1,000,000 Cost @ $1,250,000 Cost (000)s Loss & ALAE

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

7/1/99-6/30/00 500K 15.0 17.2 17.9 18.2 18.6 18.5 17.2 195,789 3,359,4097/1/00-6/30/01 500K 15.4 17.6 18.5 18.8 19.2 19.1 17.6 207,170 3,656,4757/1/01-6/30/02 500K 15.8 18.1 19.0 19.3 19.8 19.6 18.1 220,877 4,006,0477/1/02-6/30/03 500K 16.2 18.6 19.6 19.9 20.4 20.2 18.6 235,632 4,391,6637/1/03-6/30/04 500K 16.5 19.1 20.1 20.4 20.9 20.8 19.1 248,418 4,738,8727/1/04-6/30/05 500K/750K 16.9 19.5 20.6 20.9 21.4 21.3 19.9 262,426 5,216,4077/1/05-6/30/06 750K 17.3 20.0 21.2 21.5 22.0 21.9 21.2 277,717 5,873,8717/1/06-6/30/07 750K/850K 17.7 20.5 21.7 22.1 22.7 22.5 21.9 292,480 6,395,0957/1/07-6/30/08 850K 18.1 21.1 22.3 22.7 23.3 23.2 22.7 306,475 6,970,6327/1/08-6/30/09 850K 18.5 21.6 22.9 23.4 23.9 23.8 23.4 313,390 7,319,2997/1/09-6/30/10 850K 18.9 22.1 23.6 24.0 24.6 24.4 24.0 311,357 7,474,5257/1/10-6/30/11 850K 19.2 22.6 24.1 24.6 25.2 25.0 24.6 310,681 7,635,6177/1/11-6/30/12 850K/1M 19.7 23.2 24.8 25.2 25.9 25.7 25.4 313,282 7,971,6597/1/12-6/30/13 1M/1.25M 20.1 23.8 25.4 25.9 26.6 26.4 26.5 314,878 8,355,7507/1/13-6/30/14 1.25M 20.6 24.3 26.1 26.6 27.3 27.1 27.1 320,036 8,687,6427/1/14-6/30/15 1.25M 21.0 24.9 26.8 27.3 28.0 27.9 27.9 328,987 9,163,0457/1/15-6/30/16 1.25M 21.4 25.5 27.4 28.0 28.7 28.5 28.5 336,298 9,600,8627/1/16-6/30/17 1.25M 21.9 26.1 28.2 28.8 29.5 29.3 29.3 326,620 9,576,777

Total 5,122,512 120,393,646

7/1/17-6/30/18 at retention $1,250,000 30.1 317,005 9,527,224

SELECTED LOSS & ALAE COST AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Selected loss cost - Limited to $250,000 (from Exhibit 3, Sheet 2) 21.9

Selected loss cost - Limited to $500,000 (from Exhibit 3, Sheet 3) 26.1

Increased limits factor from $500K to $750K * 1.079 Selected loss cost - Limited to $750,000 28.2

Increased limits factor from $750K to $850K * 1.021 Selected loss cost - Limited to $850,000 28.8

Increased limits factor from $850K to $1M * 1.026 Selected loss cost - Limited to $1,000,000 29.5

Indicated loss cost - Limited to $1,250,000 (from Exhibit 3, Sheet 4) 28.7Increased limits factor from $1M to $1.25M * 1.027 Indicated loss cost - Limited to $1,250,000 using industry $1M to $1.25M ILF 30.3Selected loss cost - Limited to $1,250,000 29.3

Notes:Columns (1) through (6) are the selected fiscal year 7/1/16-6/30/17 loss costs, detrended at selected annual trend rates and adjusted to the appropriate benefit level.Column (7) is the selected fiscal year loss cost at the respective historical retention.Column (8) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (9) equals Column (7) x Column (8).* Increased limits factors based on NCCI VA Industry factors for Hazard Group E and CVB's historical large losses.** Retention changes occur March 1st of each year.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

28

Page 31: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Loss Cost Method, Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Initial AdjustmentEstimated to FY2017 Adjustment Adjusted Trended

Fiscal Ultimate Benefit to FY2017 Payroll (000's) Indicated to FY2017Years Loss & ALAE Level Payroll (000's) Exposure (3) x (4) Loss Cost Loss Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

7/1/99-6/30/00 2,466,414 1.042 195,789 1.000 195,789 13.1 18.47/1/00-6/30/01 3,843,451 1.036 207,170 1.000 207,170 19.2 26.47/1/01-6/30/02 3,724,477 1.030 220,877 1.000 220,877 17.4 23.47/1/02-6/30/03 3,079,619 1.025 235,632 1.000 235,632 13.4 17.77/1/03-6/30/04 5,209,765 1.024 248,418 1.000 248,418 21.5 27.87/1/04-6/30/05 5,995,236 1.023 262,426 1.000 262,426 23.4 29.67/1/05-6/30/06 4,829,498 1.020 277,717 1.000 277,717 17.7 22.17/1/06-6/30/07 5,040,595 1.017 292,480 1.000 292,480 17.5 21.47/1/07-6/30/08 5,021,753 1.014 306,475 1.000 306,475 16.6 19.97/1/08-6/30/09 4,676,832 1.012 313,390 1.000 313,390 15.1 17.77/1/09-6/30/10 4,984,079 1.009 311,357 1.000 311,357 16.2 18.67/1/10-6/30/11 5,497,039 1.010 310,681 1.000 310,681 17.9 20.17/1/11-6/30/12 5,268,645 1.008 313,282 1.000 313,282 17.0 18.77/1/12-6/30/13 7,821,016 1.005 314,878 1.000 314,878 25.0 27.07/1/13-6/30/14 11,513,023 1.003 320,036 1.000 320,036 36.1 38.37/1/14-6/30/15 7,816,143 1.002 328,987 1.000 328,987 23.8 24.87/1/15-6/30/16 6,771,668 1.002 336,298 1.000 336,298 20.2 20.67/1/16-6/30/17 6,645,002 1.000 326,620 1.000 326,620 20.3 20.3

Total 100,204,255 5,122,512 5,122,512

AVERAGES AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/99-6/30/00 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 23.1Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/05-6/30/06 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 22.7Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/14-6/30/15 through 7/1/16-6/30/17: 21.9Selected 7/1/16-6/30/17 loss & ALAE cost: 21.9

Notes:Column (1) based on the reported and paid development methods from Exhibit 2, Sheet 2, Column (3

and Exhibit 2, Sheet 4, Column (3), respectively, and actuarial judgmentColumn (2) based on the latest published NCCI Statistical BulletinColumn (3) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (4) not used in this study.Column (6) equals Column (1) x Column (2) / Column (5)Column (7) equals Column (6) x the selected loss cost trend of 2.00%

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

29

Page 32: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 3

Initial AdjustmentEstimated to FY2017 Adjustment Adjusted Trended

Fiscal Ultimate Benefit to FY2017 Payroll (000's) Indicated to FY2017Years Loss & ALAE Level Payroll (000's) Exposure (3) x (4) Loss Cost Loss Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

7/1/99-6/30/00 2,466,414 1.042 195,789 1.000 195,789 13.1 19.27/1/00-6/30/01 3,856,823 1.036 207,170 1.000 207,170 19.3 27.57/1/01-6/30/02 3,989,135 1.030 220,877 1.000 220,877 18.6 26.07/1/02-6/30/03 3,114,947 1.025 235,632 1.000 235,632 13.6 18.57/1/03-6/30/04 6,716,457 1.024 248,418 1.000 248,418 27.7 37.07/1/04-6/30/05 8,003,292 1.023 262,426 1.000 262,426 31.2 40.87/1/05-6/30/06 6,734,813 1.020 277,717 1.000 277,717 24.7 31.67/1/06-6/30/07 5,831,177 1.017 292,480 1.000 292,480 20.3 25.37/1/07-6/30/08 7,156,787 1.014 306,475 1.000 306,475 23.7 28.97/1/08-6/30/09 5,964,329 1.012 313,390 1.000 313,390 19.3 23.07/1/09-6/30/10 5,890,034 1.009 311,357 1.000 311,357 19.1 22.37/1/10-6/30/11 7,631,299 1.010 310,681 1.000 310,681 24.8 28.47/1/11-6/30/12 6,424,567 1.008 313,282 1.000 313,282 20.7 23.17/1/12-6/30/13 9,970,745 1.005 314,878 1.000 314,878 31.8 34.87/1/13-6/30/14 13,728,965 1.003 320,036 1.000 320,036 43.0 46.07/1/14-6/30/15 8,909,843 1.002 328,987 1.000 328,987 27.1 28.47/1/15-6/30/16 8,413,522 1.002 336,298 1.000 336,298 25.1 25.67/1/16-6/30/17 7,927,820 1.000 326,620 1.000 326,620 24.3 24.3

Total 122,730,969 5,122,512 5,122,512

AVERAGES AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/99-6/30/00 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 28.8Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/05-6/30/06 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 28.9Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/14-6/30/15 through 7/1/16-6/30/17: 26.1Selected 7/1/16-6/30/17 loss & ALAE cost: 26.1

Notes:Column (1) based on the reported and paid development methods from Exhibit 2, Sheet 2, Column (3

and Exhibit 2, Sheet 4, Column (3), respectively, and actuarial judgmentColumn (2) based on the latest published NCCI Statistical BulletinColumn (3) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (4) not used in this study.Column (6) equals Column (1) x Column (2) / Column (5)Column (7) equals Column (6) x the selected loss cost trend of 2.25%

Loss Cost Method, Loss & ALAE Limited to $500,000

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

30

Page 33: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 4

Initial AdjustmentEstimated to FY2017 Adjustment Adjusted Trended

Fiscal Ultimate Benefit to FY2017 Payroll (000's) Indicated to FY2017Years Loss & ALAE Level Payroll (000's) Exposure (3) x (4) Loss Cost Loss Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

7/1/99-6/30/00 2,466,414 1.042 195,789 1.000 195,789 13.1 20.07/1/00-6/30/01 3,856,823 1.036 207,170 1.000 207,170 19.3 28.67/1/01-6/30/02 3,989,135 1.030 220,877 1.000 220,877 18.6 27.07/1/02-6/30/03 3,114,947 1.025 235,632 1.000 235,632 13.6 19.27/1/03-6/30/04 7,033,098 1.024 248,418 1.000 248,418 29.0 40.07/1/04-6/30/05 8,654,139 1.023 262,426 1.000 262,426 33.7 45.47/1/05-6/30/06 7,271,433 1.020 277,717 1.000 277,717 26.7 35.07/1/06-6/30/07 5,980,043 1.017 292,480 1.000 292,480 20.8 26.67/1/07-6/30/08 9,241,534 1.014 306,475 1.000 306,475 30.6 38.27/1/08-6/30/09 7,517,163 1.012 313,390 1.000 313,390 24.3 29.67/1/09-6/30/10 5,946,733 1.009 311,357 1.000 311,357 19.3 22.97/1/10-6/30/11 8,730,104 1.010 310,681 1.000 310,681 28.4 32.97/1/11-6/30/12 7,701,609 1.008 313,282 1.000 313,282 24.8 28.07/1/12-6/30/13 10,452,971 1.005 314,878 1.000 314,878 33.4 36.87/1/13-6/30/14 15,979,159 1.003 320,036 1.000 320,036 50.1 53.97/1/14-6/30/15 9,710,540 1.002 328,987 1.000 328,987 29.6 31.17/1/15-6/30/16 9,198,272 1.002 336,298 1.000 336,298 27.4 28.17/1/16-6/30/17 8,778,659 1.000 326,620 1.000 326,620 26.9 26.9

Total 135,622,778 5,122,512 5,122,512

AVERAGES AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/99-6/30/00 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 32.4Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/05-6/30/06 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 33.0Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/14-6/30/15 through 7/1/16-6/30/17: 28.7Indicated 7/1/16-6/30/17 loss & ALAE cost: 28.7

Notes:Column (1) based on the reported and paid development methods from Exhibit 2, Sheet 2, Column (3

and Exhibit 2, Sheet 4, Column (3), respectively, and actuarial judgmentColumn (2) based on the latest published NCCI Statistical BulletinColumn (3) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (4) not used in this study.Column (6) equals Column (1) x Column (2) / Column (5)Column (7) equals Column (6) x the selected loss cost trend of 2.50%

Loss Cost Method, Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,250,000

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

31

Page 34: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 5

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Average Severity Method

Initial Adjustment Trended EstimatedEstimated to FY2017 Selected Indicated to FY2017 Ultimate Indicated

Fiscal Ultimate Benefit Ultimate Average Average Fitted Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAEYears Loss & ALAE Level Claim Counts Severity Severity Severity (3) x (6) Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

7/1/99-6/30/00 2,466,414 1.042 788 3,261 6,352 5,333 4,202,093 21.57/1/00-6/30/01 3,843,451 1.036 762 5,223 9,783 5,579 4,251,339 20.57/1/01-6/30/02 3,724,477 1.030 862 4,452 8,018 5,831 5,026,636 22.87/1/02-6/30/03 3,079,619 1.025 729 4,331 7,500 6,095 4,443,212 18.97/1/03-6/30/04 5,209,765 1.024 782 6,824 11,362 6,345 4,961,851 20.07/1/04-6/30/05 5,995,236 1.023 745 8,234 13,183 6,605 4,921,083 18.87/1/05-6/30/06 4,829,498 1.020 814 6,053 9,318 6,890 5,608,711 20.27/1/06-6/30/07 5,040,595 1.017 815 6,291 9,312 7,187 5,857,746 20.07/1/07-6/30/08 5,021,753 1.014 747 6,817 9,703 7,497 5,600,513 18.37/1/08-6/30/09 4,676,832 1.012 681 6,950 9,512 7,813 5,320,536 17.07/1/09-6/30/10 4,984,079 1.009 724 6,946 9,141 8,150 5,900,395 19.07/1/10-6/30/11 5,497,039 1.010 772 7,192 9,100 8,467 6,536,702 21.07/1/11-6/30/12 5,268,645 1.008 775 6,853 8,337 8,824 6,838,237 21.87/1/12-6/30/13 7,821,016 1.005 740 10,622 12,426 9,204 6,810,961 21.67/1/13-6/30/14 11,513,023 1.003 797 14,495 16,304 9,591 7,641,253 23.97/1/14-6/30/15 7,816,143 1.002 734 10,676 11,547 9,985 7,325,066 22.37/1/15-6/30/16 6,771,668 1.002 648 10,476 10,895 10,384 6,725,598 20.07/1/16-6/30/17 6,645,002 1.000 668 9,952 9,952 10,821 7,225,222 22.1

Total 100,204,255 13,582 105,197,152

AVERAGES AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/99-6/30/00 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 10,087Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/12-6/30/13 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 12,924Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/14-6/30/15 through 7/1/16-6/30/17: 10,821Selected 7/1/16-6/30/17 severity: 10,821

Notes:Column (1) based on the reported and paid development methods from Exhibit 2, Sheet 2, Column (3

and Exhibit 2, Sheet 4, Column (3), respectively, and actuarial judgmentColumn (2) based on the latest published NCCI Statistical BulletinColumn (3) is from Exhibit 4, Sheet 1, Column (3).Column (4) equals Column (1) x Column (2) / Column (3)Column (5) equals Column (4) x the selected severity trend of 4.00%Column (6) for all fiscal years is the selected fiscal year 7/1/16-6/30/17 severity

detrended at an annual rate of 4.00%, and adjusted to the appropriate benefit levelColumn (8) equals Column (7) / Payroll (000's).

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

32

Page 35: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 6

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

FREQUENCY TREND

SEVERITY TREND

LOSS COST TREND

Notes:The selected frequency trend is -2.00%.The selected severity trend is 4.00%.The selected loss cost trend is 2.00%.The severity and loss cost trends (for both Indicated and Fitted lines) are shown at a $250,000 per occurrence limit.*The indicated line graphs are light gray for accident periods that are not yet mature enough to be reliable.

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

FREQ

UEN

CY

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SEVER

ITY

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

LOSS COST

FISCAL YEAR ENDING

Indicated Fitted

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

33

Page 36: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 4Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Estimate of Ultimate Claim Counts

Reported Reported Closed Implied OpenClaim Bornhuetter- Selected Claim Counts and IBNR

Fiscal Development Ferguson Ultimate Implied as of Claim CountsYears Method Method Claim Counts Frequency 6/30/17 (3) - (5)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

7/1/85-6/30/86 na na na na na 17/1/86-6/30/87 na na na na na 17/1/87-6/30/88 na na na na na 57/1/88-6/30/89 na na na na na 27/1/89-6/30/90 na na na na na 17/1/90-6/30/91 na na 541 na 539 27/1/91-6/30/92 na na 639 na 637 27/1/92-6/30/93 na na 659 na 658 17/1/93-6/30/94 na na 670 na 668 27/1/94-6/30/95 na na 689 na 689 07/1/95-6/30/96 na na 665 na 664 17/1/96-6/30/97 na na 566 na 564 27/1/97-6/30/98 na na 610 na 609 17/1/98-6/30/99 na na 700 na 699 17/1/99-6/30/00 788 788 788 4.02 785 37/1/00-6/30/01 762 762 762 3.68 757 57/1/01-6/30/02 862 862 862 3.90 860 27/1/02-6/30/03 729 729 729 3.09 728 17/1/03-6/30/04 782 782 782 3.15 773 97/1/04-6/30/05 745 745 745 2.84 734 117/1/05-6/30/06 814 814 814 2.93 805 97/1/06-6/30/07 815 815 815 2.79 804 117/1/07-6/30/08 747 747 747 2.44 731 167/1/08-6/30/09 681 681 681 2.17 670 117/1/09-6/30/10 724 724 724 2.33 712 127/1/10-6/30/11 772 772 772 2.48 758 147/1/11-6/30/12 775 775 775 2.47 758 177/1/12-6/30/13 740 740 740 2.35 721 197/1/13-6/30/14 797 797 797 2.49 758 397/1/14-6/30/15 734 734 734 2.23 698 367/1/15-6/30/16 648 648 648 1.93 588 607/1/16-6/30/17 668 668 668 2.04 444 224

Total 13,582 13,582 19,321 2.65 18,811 520

Notes:Columns (1) and (2) are from Exhibit 4, Sheet 2, Columns (3) and (8), respectivelyColumn (3) based on Columns (1) and (2), actual reported claims, and actuarial judgment.Column (4) equals Column (3) / Payroll (000's) x 1,000.Column (5) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (6) for fiscal years 1986 through 1990 is equal to actual open claims as of 6/30/17

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

34

Page 37: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 4Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Reported Claim Methods

Reported Estimated Trended ReportedClaim Counts Age to Ultimate Indicated to FY2017 Bornhuetter-

Fiscal as of Ultimate Claim Counts Frequency Frequency Fitted FergusonYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Payroll (000's) (3) / (4) x 1,000 (5) x trend Frequency Method

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

7/1/99-6/30/00 788 1.000 788 195,789 4.02 2.85 2.85 7887/1/00-6/30/01 762 1.000 762 207,170 3.68 2.66 2.80 7627/1/01-6/30/02 862 1.000 862 220,877 3.90 2.88 2.74 8627/1/02-6/30/03 729 1.000 729 235,632 3.09 2.33 2.68 7297/1/03-6/30/04 782 1.000 782 248,418 3.15 2.42 2.63 7827/1/04-6/30/05 745 1.000 745 262,426 2.84 2.23 2.58 7457/1/05-6/30/06 814 1.000 814 277,717 2.93 2.35 2.53 8147/1/06-6/30/07 815 1.000 815 292,480 2.79 2.28 2.48 8157/1/07-6/30/08 747 1.000 747 306,475 2.44 2.03 2.43 7477/1/08-6/30/09 681 1.000 681 313,390 2.17 1.85 2.38 6817/1/09-6/30/10 724 1.000 724 311,357 2.33 2.02 2.33 7247/1/10-6/30/11 772 1.000 772 310,681 2.48 2.20 2.28 7727/1/11-6/30/12 775 1.000 775 313,282 2.47 2.24 2.24 7757/1/12-6/30/13 740 1.000 740 314,878 2.35 2.17 2.19 7407/1/13-6/30/14 796 1.001 797 320,036 2.49 2.34 2.15 7977/1/14-6/30/15 732 1.002 734 328,987 2.23 2.14 2.11 7347/1/15-6/30/16 644 1.006 648 336,298 1.93 1.89 2.06 6487/1/16-6/30/17 658 1.015 668 326,620 2.04 2.04 2.02 668

Total 13,566 13,582 5,122,512 13,582

AVERAGES AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/99-6/30/00 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 2.25Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/07-6/30/08 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 2.10Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/14-6/30/15 through 7/1/16-6/30/17: 2.02Selected 7/1/16-6/30/17 frequency: 2.02

Notes:Columns (1) and (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are derived from Exhibit 6, Sheet 7.The selected frequency trend used in Column (6) is -2.00%.Column (7) for all fiscal years is the selected fiscal year 7/1/16-6/30/17 frequency, detrended at an annual rate of -2.00%.Column (8) equals Column (1) + Column (4) x Column (7) x [1.0 - 1.0 / Column (2)] / 1,000].

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

35

Page 38: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 5Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Summary of Loss Data Valued as of June 30, 2017

Reported* Open Unlimited Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Excess of $250K Loss & ALAE Excess of $500K Loss & ALAE Excess of $1.25MFiscal Claim Claim CaseYears Retention Counts Counts Paid Reserves Reported Paid Reported Paid Reported Paid Reported

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)

7/1/85-6/30/86 ** 200K 1 1 119,292 7,062 126,354 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/86-6/30/87 ** 200K/250K 1 1 174,173 12,627 186,801 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/87-6/30/88 ** 250K/300K 5 5 1,622,266 80,520 1,702,786 508,498 584,701 0 32,039 0 07/1/88-6/30/89 ** 300K/400K 2 2 30,136 15,416 45,552 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/89-6/30/90 ** 400K/450K 1 1 13,672 13,835 27,507 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/90-6/30/91 *** 450K 541 2 1,889,316 133,050 2,022,366 101,755 220,820 0 0 0 07/1/91-6/30/92 450K/500K 639 2 1,815,720 7,405 1,823,126 40,276 40,276 0 0 0 07/1/92-6/30/93 500K 659 1 2,314,792 14,228 2,329,020 89,848 104,076 0 0 0 07/1/93-6/30/94 500K 670 2 2,855,251 46,267 2,901,518 327,800 362,116 77,800 112,116 0 07/1/94-6/30/95 500K 689 0 2,622,144 0 2,622,144 17,597 17,597 0 0 0 07/1/95-6/30/96 500K 665 1 1,882,726 2,580 1,885,306 78,598 78,598 0 0 0 07/1/96-6/30/97 500K 566 2 2,224,821 89,282 2,314,103 250,606 337,885 606 87,885 0 07/1/97-6/30/98 500K 610 1 1,940,346 10,806 1,951,152 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/98-6/30/99 500K 700 1 2,109,158 15,372 2,124,530 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/99-6/30/00 500K 788 3 2,421,855 25,631 2,447,486 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/00-6/30/01 500K 762 5 3,723,616 84,983 3,808,599 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/01-6/30/02 500K 862 2 3,759,339 143,714 3,903,053 116,399 178,576 0 0 0 07/1/02-6/30/03 500K 729 1 3,101,341 3,954 3,105,296 35,328 35,328 0 0 0 07/1/03-6/30/04 500K 782 9 6,574,390 311,242 6,885,632 1,461,846 1,719,957 141,833 316,641 0 07/1/04-6/30/05 500K/750K 745 11 7,919,840 379,492 8,299,331 2,060,516 2,385,111 251,458 471,591 0 07/1/05-6/30/06 750K 814 9 6,537,608 389,330 6,926,938 1,742,969 2,124,631 174,928 384,227 0 07/1/06-6/30/07 750K/850K 815 11 5,389,910 300,478 5,690,388 610,270 760,161 11,956 82,943 0 07/1/07-6/30/08 850K 747 16 7,335,599 1,480,780 8,816,379 2,773,396 3,975,278 1,008,770 2,003,021 0 122,8227/1/08-6/30/09 850K 681 11 6,462,477 623,974 7,086,452 2,100,653 2,542,348 980,319 1,326,652 0 07/1/09-6/30/10 850K 724 12 4,798,883 717,249 5,516,133 245,939 726,298 0 31,524 0 07/1/10-6/30/11 850K 772 14 6,865,126 1,158,167 8,023,293 1,537,561 2,631,325 239,878 818,425 0 07/1/11-6/30/12 850K/1M 775 17 6,053,659 832,005 6,885,664 1,357,433 1,957,822 491,461 877,310 0 07/1/12-6/30/13 1M/1.25M 740 19 7,987,565 1,224,263 9,211,828 990,395 1,794,475 305,761 315,139 0 07/1/13-6/30/14 1.25M 796 38 10,190,978 2,329,297 12,520,276 1,149,949 2,523,408 536,597 1,200,821 0 183,0337/1/14-6/30/15 1.25M 732 34 5,264,997 1,005,244 6,270,241 0 70,460 0 0 0 07/1/15-6/30/16 1.25M 644 56 3,632,216 1,625,007 5,257,223 52,495 400,928 0 0 0 07/1/16-6/30/17 1.25M 658 214 1,808,038 1,786,563 3,594,601 0 6,861 0 0 0 0

Total 19,315 504 121,441,254 14,869,823 136,311,077 17,650,125 25,579,036 4,221,366 8,060,334 0 305,854

Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000 Loss & ALAE Limited to $500,000 Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,250,000 Loss & ALAE Limited to RetentionFiscal Case Case Case CaseYears Paid Reserves Reported Paid Reserves Reported Paid Reserves Reported Paid Reserves Reported

(12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23)

7/1/85-6/30/86 ** 119,292 7,062 126,354 119,292 7,062 126,354 119,292 7,062 126,354 119,292 7,062 126,3547/1/86-6/30/87 ** 174,173 12,627 186,801 174,173 12,627 186,801 174,173 12,627 186,801 174,173 12,627 186,8017/1/87-6/30/88 ** 1,113,769 4,316 1,118,085 1,622,266 48,480 1,670,747 1,622,266 80,520 1,702,786 1,113,769 4,316 1,118,0857/1/88-6/30/89 ** 30,136 15,416 45,552 30,136 15,416 45,552 30,136 15,416 45,552 30,136 15,416 45,5527/1/89-6/30/90 ** 13,672 13,835 27,507 13,672 13,835 27,507 13,672 13,835 27,507 13,672 13,835 27,5077/1/90-6/30/91 *** 1,787,561 13,985 1,801,546 1,889,316 133,050 2,022,366 1,889,316 133,050 2,022,366 1,889,316 112,821 2,002,1387/1/91-6/30/92 1,775,444 7,405 1,782,850 1,815,720 7,405 1,823,126 1,815,720 7,405 1,823,126 1,815,720 7,405 1,823,1267/1/92-6/30/93 2,224,944 0 2,224,944 2,314,792 14,228 2,329,020 2,314,792 14,228 2,329,020 2,314,792 14,228 2,329,0207/1/93-6/30/94 2,527,452 11,951 2,539,403 2,777,452 11,951 2,789,403 2,855,251 46,267 2,901,518 2,777,452 11,951 2,789,4037/1/94-6/30/95 2,604,547 0 2,604,547 2,622,144 0 2,622,144 2,622,144 0 2,622,144 2,622,144 0 2,622,1447/1/95-6/30/96 1,804,128 2,580 1,806,708 1,882,726 2,580 1,885,306 1,882,726 2,580 1,885,306 1,882,726 2,580 1,885,3067/1/96-6/30/97 1,974,216 2,002 1,976,218 2,224,216 2,002 2,226,218 2,224,821 89,282 2,314,103 2,224,216 2,002 2,226,2187/1/97-6/30/98 1,940,346 10,806 1,951,152 1,940,346 10,806 1,951,152 1,940,346 10,806 1,951,152 1,940,346 10,806 1,951,1527/1/98-6/30/99 2,109,158 15,372 2,124,530 2,109,158 15,372 2,124,530 2,109,158 15,372 2,124,530 2,109,158 15,372 2,124,5307/1/99-6/30/00 2,421,855 25,631 2,447,486 2,421,855 25,631 2,447,486 2,421,855 25,631 2,447,486 2,421,855 25,631 2,447,4867/1/00-6/30/01 3,723,616 84,983 3,808,599 3,723,616 84,983 3,808,599 3,723,616 84,983 3,808,599 3,723,616 84,983 3,808,5997/1/01-6/30/02 3,642,940 81,536 3,724,477 3,759,339 143,714 3,903,053 3,759,339 143,714 3,903,053 3,759,339 143,714 3,903,0537/1/02-6/30/03 3,066,014 3,954 3,069,968 3,101,341 3,954 3,105,296 3,101,341 3,954 3,105,296 3,101,341 3,954 3,105,2967/1/03-6/30/04 5,112,544 53,131 5,165,675 6,432,557 136,435 6,568,992 6,574,390 311,242 6,885,632 6,432,557 136,435 6,568,9927/1/04-6/30/05 5,859,323 54,897 5,914,220 7,668,381 159,359 7,827,740 7,919,840 379,492 8,299,331 7,918,381 210,002 8,128,3837/1/05-6/30/06 4,794,639 7,668 4,802,307 6,362,680 180,031 6,542,711 6,537,608 389,330 6,926,938 6,537,608 383,381 6,920,9897/1/06-6/30/07 4,779,640 150,587 4,930,227 5,377,955 229,491 5,607,445 5,389,910 300,478 5,690,388 5,389,910 300,478 5,690,3887/1/07-6/30/08 4,562,204 278,898 4,841,102 6,326,829 486,529 6,813,358 7,335,599 1,357,958 8,693,558 7,331,429 740,309 8,071,7387/1/08-6/30/09 4,361,824 182,280 4,544,104 5,482,158 277,642 5,759,800 6,462,477 623,974 7,086,452 6,428,547 500,483 6,929,0307/1/09-6/30/10 4,552,945 236,890 4,789,834 4,798,883 685,726 5,484,609 4,798,883 717,249 5,516,133 4,798,883 717,249 5,516,1337/1/10-6/30/11 5,327,564 64,404 5,391,968 6,625,247 579,621 7,204,868 6,865,126 1,158,167 8,023,293 6,865,126 1,158,167 8,023,2937/1/11-6/30/12 4,696,226 231,616 4,927,842 5,562,198 446,155 6,008,353 6,053,659 832,005 6,885,664 6,053,659 643,367 6,697,0277/1/12-6/30/13 6,997,169 420,183 7,417,353 7,681,804 1,214,885 8,896,689 7,987,565 1,224,263 9,211,828 7,987,565 1,224,263 9,211,8287/1/13-6/30/14 9,041,029 955,838 9,996,868 9,654,382 1,665,073 11,319,455 10,190,978 2,146,265 12,337,243 10,190,978 2,146,265 12,337,2437/1/14-6/30/15 5,264,997 934,783 6,199,781 5,264,997 1,005,244 6,270,241 5,264,997 1,005,244 6,270,241 5,264,997 1,005,244 6,270,2417/1/15-6/30/16 3,579,721 1,276,573 4,856,294 3,632,216 1,625,007 5,257,223 3,632,216 1,625,007 5,257,223 3,632,216 1,625,007 5,257,2237/1/16-6/30/17 1,808,038 1,779,702 3,587,741 1,808,038 1,786,563 3,594,601 1,808,038 1,786,563 3,594,601 1,808,038 1,786,563 3,594,601

Total 103,791,129 6,940,912 110,732,041 117,219,888 11,030,855 128,250,743 121,441,254 14,563,969 136,005,223 120,672,960 13,065,916 133,738,876

Notes:Columns (1) through (23) provided by City of Virginia Beach.* Reported claim counts exclude claims closed without payment.** Fiscal years 1986 through 1990 only include open claims.*** Fiscal year 1990 only included claims with date of loss 8/1/1990 and later.Retention changes occur March 1st of each applicable year.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

36

Page 39: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 5Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Detail of Large Losses with Combined Loss & ALAE Greater than $250,000

Fiscal Date of Occurrence ClaimYear Loss Number Status Paid Reported Retention Paid Reported

1988 10/13/1987 WC870898 * Open 407,976 417,502 250,000 250,000 250,000 1988 11/17/1987 WC870961 * Open 299,511 314,279 250,000 250,000 250,000 1988 2/2/1988 WC880082 * Open 480,129 532,039 250,000 250,000 250,000 1988 2/2/1988 WC880107 * Open 320,882 320,882 250,000 250,000 250,000 1991 11/21/1990 VB-91-000035 Open 351,164 470,228 450,000 351,164 450,000 1991 2/9/1991 VB-91-000334 Closed 250,592 250,592 450,000 250,592 250,592 1992 4/8/1992 VB-92-000178 Closed 290,276 290,276 500,000 290,276 290,276 1993 8/2/1992 VB-93-000062 Re-open 297,984 312,212 500,000 297,984 312,212 1993 3/1/1993 VB-93-000335 Closed 271,636 271,636 500,000 271,636 271,636 1993 4/1/1993 VB-93-000235 Closed 270,228 270,228 500,000 270,228 270,228 1994 9/22/1993 VB-94-000111 Open 577,800 612,116 500,000 500,000 500,000 1995 12/31/1994 VB-95-000159 Closed 267,597 267,597 500,000 267,597 267,597 1996 7/15/1995 VB-96-000076 Closed 250,699 250,699 500,000 250,699 250,699 1996 4/23/1996 VB-96-000183 Closed 327,899 327,899 500,000 327,899 327,899 1997 12/31/1996 VB-97-000250 Open 500,606 587,885 500,000 500,000 500,000 2002 9/6/2001 VB-02-000176 Open 366,399 426,308 500,000 366,399 426,308 2002 11/14/2001 VB-02-000701 Open 168,464 252,268 500,000 168,464 252,268 2003 6/23/2003 VB-03-000222 Closed 285,328 285,328 500,000 285,328 285,328 2004 7/31/2003 VB-04-000480 Closed 446,532 446,532 500,000 446,532 446,532 2004 8/28/2003 VB-04-000025 Re-open 291,926 303,347 500,000 291,926 303,347 2004 11/19/2003 VB-04-000156 Open 494,178 529,422 500,000 494,178 500,000 2004 2/13/2004 VB-04-000007 Re-open 417,428 418,517 500,000 417,428 418,517 2004 4/14/2004 VB-04-000212 Open 640,764 784,206 500,000 500,000 500,000 2004 5/13/2004 VB-04-000565 Open 501,069 503,013 500,000 500,000 500,000 2004 5/25/2004 VB-04-000214 Closed 292,630 292,630 500,000 292,630 292,630 2004 6/22/2004 VB-04-000065 Open 377,317 442,289 500,000 377,317 442,289 2005 7/16/2004 VB-05-000561 Open 498,145 517,105 500,000 498,145 500,000 2005 7/26/2004 VB-05-000617 Closed 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 2005 1/31/2005 VB-05-000111 Open 400,793 447,867 500,000 400,793 447,867 2005 3/8/2005 VB-05-000209 Closed 377,445 377,445 750,000 377,445 377,445 2005 3/22/2005 VB-05-000060 Open 290,278 308,430 750,000 290,278 308,430 2005 3/24/2005 VB-05-000335 Open 462,619 550,643 750,000 462,619 550,643 2005 4/13/2005 VB-05-000656 Open 751,458 903,843 750,000 750,000 750,000 2005 4/23/2005 VB-05-000231 Closed 469,800 469,800 750,000 469,800 469,800 2005 4/26/2005 VB-05-000352 Closed 448,227 448,227 750,000 448,227 448,227 2005 6/3/2005 VB-05-000264 Closed 305,452 305,452 750,000 305,452 305,452 2005 6/23/2005 VB-05-000257 Closed 283,485 283,485 750,000 283,485 283,485 2005 6/24/2005 VB-05-000077 Closed 272,814 272,814 750,000 272,814 272,814 2006 7/4/2005 VB-06-000220 Closed 272,308 272,308 750,000 272,308 272,308 2006 9/8/2005 VB-06-000697 Closed 432,022 432,022 750,000 432,022 432,022 2006 10/24/2005 VB-06-000502 Open 371,993 415,488 750,000 371,993 415,488 2006 11/9/2005 VB-06-001376 Re-open 374,030 374,030 750,000 374,030 374,030 2006 12/8/2005 VB-06-000335 Closed 287,154 287,154 750,000 287,154 287,154 2006 12/29/2005 VB-06-000354 Open 651,499 755,949 750,000 651,499 750,000 2006 1/11/2006 VB-06-000353 Closed 309,035 309,035 750,000 309,035 309,035 2006 1/26/2006 VB-06-000364 Open 323,907 388,587 750,000 323,907 388,587 2006 2/10/2006 VB-06-000504 Open 523,429 534,447 750,000 523,429 534,447 2006 3/28/2006 VB-06-000505 Open 480,683 593,831 750,000 480,683 593,831 2006 6/1/2006 VB-06-000451 Closed 302,557 302,557 750,000 302,557 302,557 2006 6/12/2006 VB-06-001187 Open 414,351 459,221 750,000 414,351 459,221 2007 10/19/2006 VB-07-001014 Open 511,956 582,943 750,000 511,956 582,943 2007 11/7/2006 VB-07-000065 Closed 260,249 260,249 750,000 260,249 260,249 2007 12/12/2006 VB-07-000344 Open 372,119 406,882 750,000 372,119 406,882 2007 3/5/2007 VB-07-000403 Closed 397,950 397,950 850,000 397,950 397,950 2007 4/25/2007 VB-07-000450 Open 317,996 333,590 850,000 317,996 333,590 2007 5/29/2007 VB-07-000748 Re-open 234,904 278,546 850,000 234,904 278,546 2008 8/18/2007 VB-08-000180 Open 854,170 1,071,820 850,000 850,000 850,000 2008 9/18/2007 VB-08-000321 Open 439,796 495,141 850,000 439,796 495,141 2008 9/21/2007 VB-08-000355 Open 397,448 539,478 850,000 397,448 539,478 2008 10/29/2007 VB-08-000487 Open 407,227 415,094 850,000 407,227 415,094

Notes:* Fiscal years 1986 through 1990 only include open claims. For these years, claims greater than $200,000 are shown** Claims have been combined on a per-occurrence basis

Unlimited Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

37

Page 40: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 5Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Detail of Large Losses with Combined Loss & ALAE Greater than $250,000

Fiscal Date of Occurrence ClaimYear Loss Number Status Paid Reported Retention Paid Reported

2008 12/21/2007 VB-08-000647 Open 796,267 798,025 850,000 796,267 798,025 2008 1/10/2008 VB-08-000695 Open 461,530 470,324 850,000 461,530 470,324 2008 2/21/2008 VB-08-001070 Open 308,625 319,693 850,000 308,625 319,693 2008 3/15/2008 VB-08-001108 Open 146,625 272,005 850,000 146,625 272,005 2008 3/29/2008 VB-08-001367 Open 845,158 1,372,822 850,000 845,158 850,000 2008 4/1/2008 VB-08-001369 Open 513,175 720,877 850,000 513,175 720,877 2009 7/8/2008 VB-09-000017 Re-open 664,747 821,397 850,000 664,747 821,397 2009 7/28/2008 VB-09-000079 Open 883,930 950,414 850,000 850,000 850,000 2009 8/7/2008 VB-09-000130 Open 335,072 357,495 850,000 335,072 357,495 2009 9/15/2008 VB-09-000280 Open 818,444 907,007 850,000 818,444 850,000 2009 10/10/2008 VB-09-000384 Open 285,262 358,201 850,000 285,262 358,201 2009 10/24/2008 VB-09-000418 Open 613,198 647,833 850,000 613,198 647,833 2010 10/5/2009 30091088766-0001 Re-open 205,908 297,584 850,000 205,908 297,584 2010 10/8/2009 30100304912-0001 Re-open 320,923 465,949 850,000 320,923 465,949 2010 10/14/2009 30091092955-0001 Open 349,172 531,524 850,000 349,172 531,524 2010 12/27/2009 30091294055-0001 Open 325,844 349,225 850,000 325,844 349,225 2010 6/4/2010 30100682041-0001 Re-open 223,326 332,018 850,000 223,326 332,018 2011 7/10/2010 30100712761-0001 Re-open 321,002 440,500 850,000 321,002 440,500 2011 9/30/2010 30101067589-0001 Open 456,749 494,792 850,000 456,749 494,792 2011 10/6/2010 30101084203-0001 Re-open 582,858 784,912 850,000 582,858 784,912 2011 10/15/2010 30101120707-0001 ** Re-open 617,159 787,262 850,000 617,159 787,262 2011 10/24/2010 30101005857-0001 Open 266,885 344,105 850,000 266,885 344,105 2011 11/17/2010 30101147096-0001 Re-open 329,019 438,170 850,000 329,019 438,170 2011 1/12/2011 30110140424-0001 Open 237,301 277,516 850,000 237,301 277,516 2011 3/3/2011 30110342759-0001 Open 286,657 331,610 850,000 286,657 331,610 2011 3/30/2011 30110490758-0001 Open 539,861 746,251 850,000 539,861 746,251 2011 5/5/2011 30110570257-0001 Open 387,372 486,206 850,000 387,372 486,206 2012 7/25/2011 30110729025-0001 Open 824,033 1,038,637 850,000 824,033 850,000 2012 7/26/2011 30110730265-0001 Open 409,413 503,476 850,000 409,413 503,476 2012 11/21/2011 30111102181-0001 Open 349,677 429,210 850,000 349,677 429,210 2012 12/13/2011 30120208036-0001 Open 356,883 401,302 850,000 356,883 401,302 2012 4/6/2012 30120463011-0001 ** Open 667,428 835,197 - - - 2013 8/10/2012 301208210120001 Open 204,512 265,807 1,000,000 204,512 265,807 2013 9/18/2012 301209410840001 Open 363,359 414,663 1,000,000 363,359 414,663 2013 10/30/2012 300710018150001 Open 118,300 261,925 1,000,000 118,300 261,925 2013 10/31/2012 300710030490001 Open 355,693 430,923 1,000,000 355,693 430,923 2013 12/6/2012 VA-13-005030 Open 205,235 303,000 1,000,000 205,235 303,000 2013 2/11/2013 VA-13-005213 Open 206,180 448,677 1,000,000 206,180 448,677 2013 2/19/2013 VA-13-005225 Closed 805,761 805,761 1,000,000 805,761 805,761 2013 2/27/2013 VA-13-005248 Open 367,117 394,224 1,000,000 367,117 394,224 2013 3/27/2013 VA-13-005334 Open 263,168 509,378 1,250,000 263,168 509,378 2013 6/27/2013 VA-13-005682 Open 335,296 460,115 1,250,000 335,296 460,115 2014 8/14/2013 VA-14-005170 Open 318,052 358,619 1,250,000 318,052 358,619 2014 9/19/2013 VA-14-005314 Open 174,774 306,093 1,250,000 174,774 306,093 2014 10/11/2013 VA-14-005422 Open 257,831 289,256 1,250,000 257,831 289,256 2014 11/14/2013 VA-14-005512 Open 231,465 332,509 1,250,000 231,465 332,509 2014 1/23/2014 VA-14-005729 Open 152,733 324,104 1,250,000 152,733 324,104 2014 1/30/2014 VA-14-005750 Re-open 191,364 371,103 1,250,000 191,364 371,103 2014 2/26/2014 VA-14-005834 Re-open 275,458 327,491 1,250,000 275,458 327,491 2014 2/26/2014 VA-14-005849 Open 299,286 389,915 1,250,000 299,286 389,915 2014 3/29/2014 VA-14-005983 Open 1,036,597 1,433,033 1,250,000 1,036,597 1,250,000 2014 5/14/2014 VA-14-006169 Closed 262,003 262,003 1,250,000 262,003 262,003 2014 5/19/2014 VA-14-006192 Open 425,904 767,788 1,250,000 425,904 767,788 2014 6/6/2014 VA-14-006280 Open 274,818 361,495 1,250,000 274,818 361,495 2015 4/20/2015 VA-15-006078 Open 176,436 320,460 1,250,000 176,436 320,460 2016 7/25/2015 VA-16-005070 Open 302,495 468,848 1,250,000 302,495 468,848 2016 11/23/2015 VA-16-005497 Open 142,439 403,673 1,250,000 142,439 403,673 2016 5/21/2016 VA-16-006079 Open 128,615 278,408 1,250,000 128,615 278,408 2017 2/10/2017 VA-17-005778 Open 122,880 256,861 1,250,000 122,880 256,861

Notes:* Fiscal years 1986 through 1990 only include open claims. For these years, claims greater than $200,000 are shown** Claims have been combined on a per-occurrence basis

Unlimited Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

38

Page 41: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of April 30, 2017

Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 240 252 264 276 288 300 312

5/1/91-4/30/92 936,812 1,214,137 1,352,861 1,426,252 1,544,650 1,398,081 1,396,104 1,424,835 1,425,712 1,438,978 1,476,430 1,482,465 1,497,926 1,565,030 1,567,387 1,568,167 1,611,486 1,604,235 1,811,713 1,849,709 1,770,761 1,776,250 1,767,606 1,847,440 1,827,644 1,855,4825/1/92-4/30/93 969,218 1,378,685 1,632,525 1,801,081 1,921,256 1,972,814 2,003,634 2,068,863 2,076,184 2,201,150 2,056,319 2,073,523 2,077,828 2,161,165 2,127,897 2,129,410 2,089,990 2,153,504 2,166,828 2,144,009 2,183,336 2,181,065 2,156,896 2,189,690 2,189,5955/1/93-4/30/94 1,266,182 1,808,478 2,395,393 2,454,681 2,349,404 2,357,247 2,359,566 2,360,105 2,361,351 2,335,107 2,334,730 2,338,056 2,339,183 2,341,768 2,341,729 2,354,954 2,363,950 2,363,950 2,363,950 2,363,950 2,364,511 2,364,511 2,364,511 2,364,7335/1/94-4/30/95 1,673,811 2,389,470 2,450,652 2,388,412 2,330,120 2,409,244 2,614,289 2,618,862 2,382,887 2,384,717 2,386,732 2,388,188 2,426,948 2,461,935 2,427,615 2,428,055 2,428,055 2,428,790 2,449,592 2,432,258 2,490,711 2,647,179 2,576,4015/1/95-4/30/96 1,109,632 1,755,865 1,931,460 1,970,950 1,970,192 1,961,291 1,993,524 1,988,579 1,991,067 2,007,456 2,010,535 2,013,379 2,019,044 2,031,220 2,059,405 2,059,405 2,036,796 2,036,796 2,036,796 2,040,664 2,041,148 2,041,3695/1/96-4/30/97 1,497,887 1,381,514 1,577,227 1,825,874 1,972,664 1,902,133 1,911,838 1,891,075 1,892,548 1,893,192 1,894,174 1,909,998 1,983,733 1,987,865 1,995,736 1,989,519 1,999,291 1,999,291 1,994,648 1,994,648 1,994,6485/1/97-4/30/98 1,003,751 1,511,637 1,690,686 1,855,109 1,797,172 1,809,200 1,805,381 1,822,872 1,814,948 1,839,803 1,832,381 1,842,046 1,855,860 1,855,860 1,839,822 1,839,822 1,839,822 1,845,322 1,844,239 1,857,2195/1/98-4/30/99 1,363,785 1,574,781 1,689,546 1,740,234 1,632,496 1,621,919 1,576,585 1,565,108 1,582,650 1,582,650 1,606,607 1,596,105 1,613,504 1,634,270 1,661,770 1,644,096 1,650,885 1,650,487 1,650,4875/1/99-4/30/00 1,585,841 2,576,377 2,664,405 2,601,794 2,725,815 2,702,414 2,710,717 2,729,134 2,735,872 2,767,035 2,781,809 2,784,840 2,764,380 2,759,627 2,769,023 2,793,823 2,804,885 2,815,2425/1/00-4/30/01 1,905,896 3,145,250 3,065,770 3,133,992 3,204,129 3,213,235 3,179,263 3,209,905 3,304,654 3,418,842 3,436,793 3,420,573 3,421,823 3,428,248 3,431,580 3,431,815 3,432,9155/1/01-4/30/02 2,292,857 2,987,477 3,308,284 3,312,775 3,317,606 3,432,740 3,462,156 3,725,883 3,824,358 3,824,567 3,736,776 3,729,942 3,729,942 3,729,942 3,729,942 3,821,8665/1/02-4/30/03 2,103,988 3,008,545 2,969,860 2,909,661 2,979,080 3,012,250 3,058,522 3,017,399 3,011,498 3,025,997 3,082,510 3,126,595 3,280,337 3,285,337 3,288,2445/1/03-4/30/04 2,643,060 4,331,133 4,266,034 4,419,019 4,426,189 4,613,897 4,494,164 4,536,589 4,539,666 4,560,407 4,582,689 4,571,096 4,591,159 4,637,2005/1/04-4/30/05 2,669,225 4,006,360 4,659,169 4,717,470 5,319,405 5,576,937 5,648,303 5,499,807 5,502,631 5,511,709 5,504,164 5,488,464 5,550,5045/1/05-4/30/06 2,337,408 3,976,286 4,605,392 4,960,075 5,180,584 5,112,163 5,167,883 5,286,661 5,293,706 5,287,326 5,187,286 5,198,1015/1/06-4/30/07 2,818,007 3,308,555 4,416,555 4,849,694 4,752,832 4,835,045 4,883,529 4,924,234 5,062,248 5,172,623 5,166,0635/1/07-4/30/08 1,856,168 4,440,784 4,866,275 4,744,164 4,775,535 4,856,779 4,952,878 5,028,218 5,111,282 5,158,3695/1/08-4/30/09 3,252,668 4,081,596 4,112,193 4,164,522 4,241,502 4,354,481 4,475,338 4,421,521 4,522,4815/1/09-4/30/10 2,252,596 3,224,685 3,734,218 3,803,711 3,800,000 3,934,277 4,013,635 4,265,5405/1/10-4/30/11 2,327,560 3,486,122 4,641,502 4,796,784 4,973,147 5,350,691 5,393,9555/1/11-4/30/12 3,206,990 4,321,717 4,680,838 4,976,913 5,283,067 5,357,7395/1/12-4/30/13 3,511,291 5,247,235 5,600,738 5,907,579 6,339,6345/1/13-4/30/14 4,434,878 7,035,772 8,279,040 8,923,7705/1/14-4/30/15 5,885,338 7,086,196 7,642,7105/1/15-4/30/16 4,205,152 4,526,1885/1/16-4/30/17 3,879,880

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-192 192-204 204-216 216-228 228-240 240-252 252-264 264-276 276-288 288-300 300-312 312-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.296 1.114 1.054 1.083 0.905 0.999 1.021 1.001 1.009 1.026 1.004 1.010 1.045 1.002 1.000 1.028 0.996 1.129 1.021 0.957 1.003 0.995 1.045 0.989 1.0155/1/92-4/30/93 1.422 1.184 1.103 1.067 1.027 1.016 1.033 1.004 1.060 0.934 1.008 1.002 1.040 0.985 1.001 0.981 1.030 1.006 0.989 1.018 0.999 0.989 1.015 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.428 1.325 1.025 0.957 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.001 0.989 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.006 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/94-4/30/95 1.428 1.026 0.975 0.976 1.034 1.085 1.002 0.910 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.016 1.014 0.986 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.009 0.993 1.024 1.063 0.9735/1/95-4/30/96 1.582 1.100 1.020 1.000 0.995 1.016 0.998 1.001 1.008 1.002 1.001 1.003 1.006 1.014 1.000 0.989 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 0.922 1.142 1.158 1.080 0.964 1.005 0.989 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.008 1.039 1.002 1.004 0.997 1.005 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 1.506 1.118 1.097 0.969 1.007 0.998 1.010 0.996 1.014 0.996 1.005 1.007 1.000 0.991 1.000 1.000 1.003 0.999 1.0075/1/98-4/30/99 1.155 1.073 1.030 0.938 0.994 0.972 0.993 1.011 1.000 1.015 0.993 1.011 1.013 1.017 0.989 1.004 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 1.625 1.034 0.977 1.048 0.991 1.003 1.007 1.002 1.011 1.005 1.001 0.993 0.998 1.003 1.009 1.004 1.0045/1/00-4/30/01 1.650 0.975 1.022 1.022 1.003 0.989 1.010 1.030 1.035 1.005 0.995 1.000 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 1.303 1.107 1.001 1.001 1.035 1.009 1.076 1.026 1.000 0.977 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0255/1/02-4/30/03 1.430 0.987 0.980 1.024 1.011 1.015 0.987 0.998 1.005 1.019 1.014 1.049 1.002 1.0015/1/03-4/30/04 1.639 0.985 1.036 1.002 1.042 0.974 1.009 1.001 1.005 1.005 0.997 1.004 1.0105/1/04-4/30/05 1.501 1.163 1.013 1.128 1.048 1.013 0.974 1.001 1.002 0.999 0.997 1.0115/1/05-4/30/06 1.701 1.158 1.077 1.044 0.987 1.011 1.023 1.001 0.999 0.981 1.0025/1/06-4/30/07 1.174 1.335 1.098 0.980 1.017 1.010 1.008 1.028 1.022 0.9995/1/07-4/30/08 2.392 1.096 0.975 1.007 1.017 1.020 1.015 1.017 1.0095/1/08-4/30/09 1.255 1.007 1.013 1.018 1.027 1.028 0.988 1.0235/1/09-4/30/10 1.432 1.158 1.019 0.999 1.035 1.020 1.0635/1/10-4/30/11 1.498 1.331 1.033 1.037 1.076 1.0085/1/11-4/30/12 1.348 1.083 1.063 1.062 1.0145/1/12-4/30/13 1.494 1.067 1.055 1.0735/1/13-4/30/14 1.586 1.177 1.0785/1/14-4/30/15 1.204 1.0795/1/15-4/30/16 1.076

All Years Weighted 1.418 1.113 1.038 1.028 1.018 1.010 1.011 1.005 1.009 0.996 1.001 1.010 1.008 1.000 1.004 1.001 1.004 1.015 1.001 1.002 1.015 0.988 1.018 0.995 1.0155 Years Weighted 1.328 1.135 1.055 1.042 1.034 1.017 1.018 1.013 1.007 0.998 1.001 1.012 1.003 1.003 1.007 1.002 1.001 1.002 1.000 1.009 1.0154 Years Weighted 1.325 1.106 1.060 1.047 1.038 1.018 1.017 1.017 1.008 0.996 1.002 1.014 1.004 1.001 1.009 1.002 1.002 0.999 1.000 1.007 1.017 0.9883 Years Weighted 1.284 1.111 1.067 1.058 1.042 1.018 1.020 1.022 1.010 0.993 0.999 1.018 1.004 1.001 1.012 1.002 1.002 0.999 1.003 1.009 1.023 0.987 1.018Industry 1.324 1.115 1.042 1.019 1.015 1.011 1.008 1.007 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.002Prior (4/30/15) 1.490 1.094 1.047 1.027 1.022 1.017 1.010 1.007 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.003

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-192 192-204 204-216 216-228 228-240 240-252 252-264 264-276 276-288 288-300 300-312 312-ULT

Age to Age 1.328 1.106 1.067 1.058 1.034 1.018 1.015 1.012 1.006 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.002Age to Ultimate 1.852 1.394 1.261 1.181 1.116 1.080 1.060 1.044 1.033 1.026 1.022 1.020 1.017 1.015 1.013 1.011 1.009 1.008 1.006 1.005 1.005 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.002

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

39

Page 42: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of April 30, 2017

Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 240 252 264 276 288 300 312

5/1/91-4/30/92 504,616 846,060 1,161,776 1,268,208 1,329,541 1,351,581 1,367,158 1,385,902 1,401,089 1,412,737 1,427,942 1,437,068 1,458,475 1,509,123 1,523,339 1,525,835 1,547,401 1,559,619 1,738,743 1,744,125 1,763,135 1,764,381 1,765,649 1,823,974 1,826,393 1,846,4245/1/92-4/30/93 394,760 828,953 1,154,592 1,308,902 1,479,816 1,628,503 1,702,747 1,774,947 1,847,618 1,943,913 1,987,189 2,020,601 2,060,040 2,124,586 2,127,897 2,129,122 2,089,990 2,132,480 2,138,417 2,144,009 2,154,119 2,154,119 2,156,896 2,161,620 2,189,5955/1/93-4/30/94 470,300 1,005,549 1,556,782 1,870,343 2,077,123 2,156,089 2,227,475 2,269,214 2,294,814 2,319,208 2,334,730 2,338,056 2,339,183 2,341,160 2,341,729 2,342,107 2,344,883 2,345,192 2,345,541 2,347,411 2,348,834 2,349,980 2,351,414 2,352,7825/1/94-4/30/95 576,064 1,626,859 1,848,250 1,996,137 2,082,499 2,188,243 2,243,821 2,299,633 2,338,567 2,366,265 2,372,965 2,388,188 2,418,293 2,424,297 2,427,615 2,428,055 2,428,055 2,428,055 2,431,063 2,432,258 2,468,027 2,576,556 2,576,4015/1/95-4/30/96 556,265 1,170,931 1,593,085 1,800,584 1,832,141 1,865,023 1,907,140 1,941,068 1,969,984 2,007,456 2,010,535 2,013,379 2,016,257 2,017,910 2,019,497 2,021,026 2,022,556 2,025,785 2,027,994 2,033,421 2,035,469 2,038,4575/1/96-4/30/97 407,426 970,219 1,187,310 1,443,546 1,799,305 1,859,495 1,868,161 1,874,841 1,878,630 1,881,655 1,885,027 1,897,388 1,983,733 1,987,865 1,988,883 1,989,519 1,993,824 1,994,526 1,994,648 1,994,648 1,994,6485/1/97-4/30/98 341,378 894,269 1,214,936 1,484,589 1,687,091 1,719,293 1,744,778 1,770,533 1,794,609 1,813,676 1,816,005 1,818,903 1,820,767 1,822,844 1,824,761 1,826,943 1,830,654 1,834,503 1,838,161 1,843,3385/1/98-4/30/99 574,676 1,006,372 1,360,115 1,489,850 1,552,377 1,548,540 1,559,722 1,565,108 1,567,860 1,570,154 1,574,656 1,577,995 1,582,413 1,589,075 1,606,901 1,618,819 1,631,370 1,632,949 1,635,0165/1/99-4/30/00 629,178 1,868,128 2,338,779 2,501,918 2,608,680 2,701,018 2,710,717 2,719,134 2,728,313 2,732,296 2,735,569 2,739,043 2,751,667 2,753,469 2,757,188 2,769,864 2,782,076 2,788,6575/1/00-4/30/01 771,580 1,870,273 2,871,947 3,050,298 3,104,821 3,136,231 3,173,921 3,200,845 3,216,626 3,242,840 3,267,230 3,284,874 3,300,434 3,313,975 3,329,208 3,342,173 3,351,1215/1/01-4/30/02 858,597 2,441,755 2,933,060 3,110,835 3,166,841 3,223,419 3,283,283 3,310,713 3,474,654 3,520,088 3,584,701 3,623,340 3,658,646 3,678,603 3,695,855 3,736,8775/1/02-4/30/03 1,055,296 2,513,818 2,831,288 2,874,462 2,894,530 2,940,553 2,952,614 2,973,292 2,992,383 3,016,444 3,061,623 3,096,194 3,258,649 3,268,946 3,273,3725/1/03-4/30/04 1,177,136 2,385,241 3,408,654 3,733,345 3,977,609 4,123,214 4,265,225 4,358,257 4,414,387 4,451,061 4,494,436 4,510,558 4,544,350 4,580,0085/1/04-4/30/05 1,006,224 2,478,778 3,286,135 4,063,014 4,458,149 4,761,248 4,989,814 5,181,494 5,294,698 5,414,840 5,460,099 5,472,301 5,489,7915/1/05-4/30/06 1,044,583 2,033,625 2,864,221 3,550,012 4,018,740 4,432,727 4,766,587 5,004,500 5,185,844 5,255,232 5,183,613 5,194,6455/1/06-4/30/07 1,195,394 2,392,915 2,984,844 3,431,025 3,735,610 4,056,893 4,350,711 4,554,673 4,755,405 4,962,393 5,009,2645/1/07-4/30/08 1,157,022 2,717,756 3,428,045 3,810,988 4,153,203 4,409,516 4,611,026 4,747,967 4,817,584 4,890,0255/1/08-4/30/09 1,252,004 2,707,367 3,450,106 3,728,993 3,869,572 4,034,330 4,195,207 4,266,258 4,304,5245/1/09-4/30/10 1,218,792 2,419,866 2,842,546 3,164,351 3,478,778 3,716,984 3,805,366 4,028,8655/1/10-4/30/11 1,329,218 2,764,808 3,729,969 4,336,362 4,664,221 5,115,483 5,299,9985/1/11-4/30/12 1,925,777 3,347,720 4,140,980 4,668,074 5,002,329 5,140,9945/1/12-4/30/13 1,787,588 4,190,375 4,928,272 5,435,215 5,943,7475/1/13-4/30/14 2,545,665 5,929,719 7,099,369 8,112,7045/1/14-4/30/15 3,243,964 5,518,321 6,556,7975/1/15-4/30/16 1,991,412 3,457,6285/1/16-4/30/17 1,952,288

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-192 192-204 204-216 216-228 228-240 240-252 252-264 264-276 276-288 288-300 300-312 312-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.677 1.373 1.092 1.048 1.017 1.012 1.014 1.011 1.008 1.011 1.006 1.015 1.035 1.009 1.002 1.014 1.008 1.115 1.003 1.011 1.001 1.001 1.033 1.001 1.0115/1/92-4/30/93 2.100 1.393 1.134 1.131 1.100 1.046 1.042 1.041 1.052 1.022 1.017 1.020 1.031 1.002 1.001 0.982 1.020 1.003 1.003 1.005 1.000 1.001 1.002 1.0135/1/93-4/30/94 2.138 1.548 1.201 1.111 1.038 1.033 1.019 1.011 1.011 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.0015/1/94-4/30/95 2.824 1.136 1.080 1.043 1.051 1.025 1.025 1.017 1.012 1.003 1.006 1.013 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.015 1.044 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 2.105 1.361 1.130 1.018 1.018 1.023 1.018 1.015 1.019 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.001 1.003 1.001 1.0015/1/96-4/30/97 2.381 1.224 1.216 1.246 1.033 1.005 1.004 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.007 1.046 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 2.620 1.359 1.222 1.136 1.019 1.015 1.015 1.014 1.011 1.001 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.0035/1/98-4/30/99 1.751 1.352 1.095 1.042 0.998 1.007 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.003 1.002 1.003 1.004 1.011 1.007 1.008 1.001 1.0015/1/99-4/30/00 2.969 1.252 1.070 1.043 1.035 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.005 1.001 1.001 1.005 1.004 1.0025/1/00-4/30/01 2.424 1.536 1.062 1.018 1.010 1.012 1.008 1.005 1.008 1.008 1.005 1.005 1.004 1.005 1.004 1.0035/1/01-4/30/02 2.844 1.201 1.061 1.018 1.018 1.019 1.008 1.050 1.013 1.018 1.011 1.010 1.005 1.005 1.0115/1/02-4/30/03 2.382 1.126 1.015 1.007 1.016 1.004 1.007 1.006 1.008 1.015 1.011 1.052 1.003 1.0015/1/03-4/30/04 2.026 1.429 1.095 1.065 1.037 1.034 1.022 1.013 1.008 1.010 1.004 1.007 1.0085/1/04-4/30/05 2.463 1.326 1.236 1.097 1.068 1.048 1.038 1.022 1.023 1.008 1.002 1.0035/1/05-4/30/06 1.947 1.408 1.239 1.132 1.103 1.075 1.050 1.036 1.013 0.986 1.0025/1/06-4/30/07 2.002 1.247 1.149 1.089 1.086 1.072 1.047 1.044 1.044 1.0095/1/07-4/30/08 2.349 1.261 1.112 1.090 1.062 1.046 1.030 1.015 1.0155/1/08-4/30/09 2.162 1.274 1.081 1.038 1.043 1.040 1.017 1.0095/1/09-4/30/10 1.985 1.175 1.113 1.099 1.068 1.024 1.0595/1/10-4/30/11 2.080 1.349 1.163 1.076 1.097 1.0365/1/11-4/30/12 1.738 1.237 1.127 1.072 1.0285/1/12-4/30/13 2.344 1.176 1.103 1.0945/1/13-4/30/14 2.329 1.197 1.1435/1/14-4/30/15 1.701 1.1885/1/15-4/30/16 1.736

All Years Weighted 2.120 1.265 1.125 1.075 1.050 1.034 1.026 1.020 1.016 1.006 1.005 1.012 1.007 1.003 1.003 1.001 1.004 1.012 1.002 1.005 1.011 1.001 1.010 1.008 1.0115 Years Weighted 1.953 1.216 1.131 1.076 1.059 1.044 1.040 1.025 1.021 1.005 1.005 1.013 1.005 1.004 1.006 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.005 1.0114 Years Weighted 1.996 1.197 1.133 1.084 1.058 1.037 1.037 1.026 1.023 1.003 1.004 1.015 1.005 1.003 1.007 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.004 1.013 1.0013 Years Weighted 1.916 1.188 1.127 1.081 1.063 1.034 1.034 1.023 1.024 1.001 1.003 1.016 1.006 1.004 1.007 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.002 1.006 1.016 1.001 1.010Industry 2.053 1.259 1.124 1.068 1.039 1.029 1.017 1.014 1.011 1.009 1.007 1.006 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.010Prior (4/30/15) 2.263 1.233 1.138 1.082 1.052 1.040 1.033 1.026 1.015 1.010 1.008 1.007 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.010

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-192 192-204 204-216 216-228 228-240 240-252 252-264 264-276 276-288 288-300 300-312 312-ULT

Age to Age 1.916 1.197 1.131 1.084 1.059 1.044 1.034 1.022 1.017 1.009 1.007 1.006 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.010Age to Ultimate 3.570 1.864 1.557 1.377 1.270 1.199 1.149 1.111 1.087 1.069 1.059 1.051 1.045 1.039 1.034 1.029 1.025 1.022 1.019 1.016 1.015 1.014 1.013 1.012 1.011 1.010

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

40

Page 43: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 3

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of April 30, 2017

Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $500,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 240 252 264 276 288 300 312

5/1/91-4/30/92 936,812 1,214,137 1,352,861 1,426,252 1,544,650 1,398,081 1,396,104 1,424,835 1,425,712 1,438,978 1,476,430 1,482,465 1,497,926 1,565,030 1,567,387 1,568,167 1,611,486 1,604,235 2,061,713 2,186,433 1,861,675 1,867,164 1,807,882 1,887,716 1,867,920 1,895,7585/1/92-4/30/93 969,218 1,408,339 1,664,179 1,832,736 1,952,910 2,005,470 2,037,158 2,102,387 2,109,709 2,234,675 2,077,956 2,203,759 2,209,220 2,291,689 2,258,173 2,259,350 2,131,855 2,195,368 2,208,692 2,185,873 2,225,200 2,222,929 2,198,760 2,293,766 2,293,6715/1/93-4/30/94 1,287,182 1,904,393 2,491,308 2,550,596 2,424,319 2,432,161 2,434,062 2,610,105 2,611,351 2,499,170 2,493,434 2,496,761 2,497,887 2,500,472 2,500,434 2,581,128 2,613,950 2,613,950 2,574,395 2,574,395 2,574,957 2,574,957 2,579,957 2,614,7335/1/94-4/30/95 1,697,311 2,412,970 2,474,152 2,403,821 2,330,120 2,409,244 2,645,814 2,656,181 2,388,681 2,402,187 2,404,329 2,405,785 2,444,545 2,479,532 2,445,212 2,445,652 2,445,652 2,446,387 2,467,189 2,449,855 2,508,308 2,664,775 2,593,9985/1/95-4/30/96 1,109,632 1,835,010 2,016,326 2,165,571 2,047,812 2,039,190 2,071,424 2,067,322 2,069,811 2,086,054 2,089,133 2,091,977 2,097,642 2,109,818 2,138,003 2,138,003 2,115,394 2,115,394 2,115,394 2,119,262 2,119,746 2,119,9675/1/96-4/30/97 1,507,098 1,491,156 1,720,676 1,969,323 2,116,113 2,059,950 2,069,654 2,086,912 2,088,385 2,123,634 2,124,616 2,143,701 2,233,733 2,237,865 2,245,736 2,239,519 2,249,291 2,249,291 2,244,648 2,244,648 2,244,6485/1/97-4/30/98 1,003,751 1,511,637 1,690,686 1,855,109 1,797,172 1,809,200 1,805,381 1,822,872 1,814,948 1,839,803 1,832,381 1,842,046 1,855,860 1,855,860 1,839,822 1,839,822 1,839,822 1,845,322 1,844,239 1,857,2195/1/98-4/30/99 1,363,785 1,574,781 1,689,546 1,740,234 1,632,496 1,621,919 1,576,585 1,565,108 1,582,650 1,582,650 1,606,607 1,596,105 1,613,504 1,634,270 1,661,770 1,644,096 1,650,885 1,650,487 1,650,4875/1/99-4/30/00 1,585,841 2,576,377 2,664,405 2,601,794 2,725,815 2,702,414 2,710,717 2,729,134 2,735,872 2,767,035 2,781,809 2,784,840 2,764,380 2,759,627 2,769,023 2,793,823 2,804,885 2,815,2425/1/00-4/30/01 1,923,174 3,160,944 3,065,770 3,133,992 3,204,129 3,213,235 3,179,263 3,209,905 3,304,654 3,418,842 3,436,793 3,420,573 3,421,823 3,428,248 3,431,580 3,431,815 3,432,9155/1/01-4/30/02 2,292,857 2,987,477 3,308,284 3,312,775 3,317,606 3,432,740 3,462,156 3,975,883 4,162,351 4,162,560 3,829,584 3,835,750 3,866,250 3,855,750 3,847,250 3,950,4425/1/02-4/30/03 2,103,988 3,008,545 2,969,860 2,909,661 2,979,080 3,012,250 3,058,522 3,017,399 3,011,498 3,025,997 3,082,510 3,126,595 3,280,337 3,285,337 3,288,2445/1/03-4/30/04 2,698,686 4,385,402 4,335,475 4,870,116 4,750,820 5,396,247 5,454,696 5,515,490 5,506,939 5,533,123 5,557,350 5,496,559 5,523,976 5,579,2675/1/04-4/30/05 2,669,225 4,042,068 5,317,083 5,239,408 6,646,716 7,668,522 7,773,418 7,647,149 7,828,861 7,771,591 7,792,541 7,751,975 7,837,1935/1/05-4/30/06 2,343,150 4,186,013 4,851,419 5,815,175 6,671,273 6,603,153 6,676,273 6,916,192 6,980,850 6,945,337 6,799,238 6,788,4785/1/06-4/30/07 2,904,332 3,378,167 4,665,863 5,634,376 5,540,066 5,558,972 5,617,732 5,662,537 5,836,819 6,017,686 6,078,7685/1/07-4/30/08 1,856,168 5,271,637 6,528,959 6,331,981 6,490,330 6,845,493 6,941,592 7,016,932 7,170,747 7,179,1185/1/08-4/30/09 3,449,457 5,050,559 5,093,708 5,283,055 5,485,728 5,522,670 5,699,780 5,645,962 5,738,1775/1/09-4/30/10 2,252,596 3,354,785 3,921,266 3,990,759 4,055,767 4,431,597 4,518,403 4,878,2975/1/10-4/30/11 2,327,560 3,687,844 5,208,964 5,778,614 6,121,627 6,641,515 7,012,8675/1/11-4/30/12 3,456,990 4,704,060 5,139,961 5,806,403 6,279,722 6,596,6535/1/12-4/30/13 3,511,291 5,523,882 5,879,288 6,586,775 7,608,8545/1/13-4/30/14 4,434,878 7,382,610 8,976,190 10,072,9755/1/14-4/30/15 6,135,338 7,455,723 8,077,5085/1/15-4/30/16 4,205,152 4,898,7085/1/16-4/30/17 3,915,149

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-192 192-204 204-216 216-228 228-240 240-252 252-264 264-276 276-288 288-300 300-312 312-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.296 1.114 1.054 1.083 0.905 0.999 1.021 1.001 1.009 1.026 1.004 1.010 1.045 1.002 1.000 1.028 0.996 1.285 1.060 0.851 1.003 0.968 1.044 0.990 1.0155/1/92-4/30/93 1.453 1.182 1.101 1.066 1.027 1.016 1.032 1.003 1.059 0.930 1.061 1.002 1.037 0.985 1.001 0.944 1.030 1.006 0.990 1.018 0.999 0.989 1.043 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.480 1.308 1.024 0.950 1.003 1.001 1.072 1.000 0.957 0.998 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.032 1.013 1.000 0.985 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.0135/1/94-4/30/95 1.422 1.025 0.972 0.969 1.034 1.098 1.004 0.899 1.006 1.001 1.001 1.016 1.014 0.986 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.009 0.993 1.024 1.062 0.9735/1/95-4/30/96 1.654 1.099 1.074 0.946 0.996 1.016 0.998 1.001 1.008 1.001 1.001 1.003 1.006 1.013 1.000 0.989 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 0.989 1.154 1.145 1.075 0.973 1.005 1.008 1.001 1.017 1.000 1.009 1.042 1.002 1.004 0.997 1.004 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 1.506 1.118 1.097 0.969 1.007 0.998 1.010 0.996 1.014 0.996 1.005 1.007 1.000 0.991 1.000 1.000 1.003 0.999 1.0075/1/98-4/30/99 1.155 1.073 1.030 0.938 0.994 0.972 0.993 1.011 1.000 1.015 0.993 1.011 1.013 1.017 0.989 1.004 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 1.625 1.034 0.977 1.048 0.991 1.003 1.007 1.002 1.011 1.005 1.001 0.993 0.998 1.003 1.009 1.004 1.0045/1/00-4/30/01 1.644 0.970 1.022 1.022 1.003 0.989 1.010 1.030 1.035 1.005 0.995 1.000 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 1.303 1.107 1.001 1.001 1.035 1.009 1.148 1.047 1.000 0.920 1.002 1.008 0.997 0.998 1.0275/1/02-4/30/03 1.430 0.987 0.980 1.024 1.011 1.015 0.987 0.998 1.005 1.019 1.014 1.049 1.002 1.0015/1/03-4/30/04 1.625 0.989 1.123 0.976 1.136 1.011 1.011 0.998 1.005 1.004 0.989 1.005 1.0105/1/04-4/30/05 1.514 1.315 0.985 1.269 1.154 1.014 0.984 1.024 0.993 1.003 0.995 1.0115/1/05-4/30/06 1.786 1.159 1.199 1.147 0.990 1.011 1.036 1.009 0.995 0.979 0.9985/1/06-4/30/07 1.163 1.381 1.208 0.983 1.003 1.011 1.008 1.031 1.031 1.0105/1/07-4/30/08 2.840 1.239 0.970 1.025 1.055 1.014 1.011 1.022 1.0015/1/08-4/30/09 1.464 1.009 1.037 1.038 1.007 1.032 0.991 1.0165/1/09-4/30/10 1.489 1.169 1.018 1.016 1.093 1.020 1.0805/1/10-4/30/11 1.584 1.412 1.109 1.059 1.085 1.0565/1/11-4/30/12 1.361 1.093 1.130 1.082 1.0505/1/12-4/30/13 1.573 1.064 1.120 1.1555/1/13-4/30/14 1.665 1.216 1.1225/1/14-4/30/15 1.215 1.0835/1/15-4/30/16 1.165

All Years Weighted 1.473 1.139 1.072 1.054 1.041 1.017 1.020 1.010 1.006 0.993 1.002 1.011 1.008 1.000 1.007 0.998 1.004 1.027 1.007 0.984 1.014 0.984 1.032 0.995 1.0155 Years Weighted 1.378 1.157 1.107 1.077 1.056 1.027 1.023 1.020 1.004 1.001 0.998 1.013 1.003 1.002 1.008 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.009 1.0144 Years Weighted 1.381 1.120 1.121 1.086 1.057 1.031 1.019 1.019 1.003 0.998 0.997 1.015 1.003 1.001 1.009 1.002 1.002 0.999 1.000 1.006 1.016 0.9843 Years Weighted 1.336 1.126 1.124 1.101 1.074 1.038 1.022 1.023 1.008 0.997 0.994 1.016 1.004 1.000 1.013 1.002 1.002 0.999 1.003 1.009 1.022 0.988 1.032Industry 1.324 1.120 1.047 1.022 1.018 1.014 1.011 1.009 1.007 1.005 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.012Prior (4/30/15) 1.549 1.098 1.085 1.040 1.030 1.018 1.011 1.009 1.007 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.012

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-192 192-204 204-216 216-228 228-240 240-252 252-264 264-276 276-288 288-300 300-312 312-ULT

Age to Age 1.378 1.126 1.107 1.077 1.057 1.031 1.019 1.016 1.007 1.006 1.0040 1.0039 1.0037 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.012Age to Ultimate 2.205 1.600 1.421 1.284 1.192 1.128 1.094 1.074 1.057 1.050 1.043 1.039 1.035 1.031 1.028 1.025 1.023 1.021 1.020 1.018 1.017 1.016 1.015 1.014 1.013 1.012

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

41

Page 44: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 4

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of April 30, 2017

Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $500,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 240 252 264 276 288 300 312

5/1/91-4/30/92 504,616 846,060 1,161,776 1,268,208 1,329,541 1,351,581 1,367,158 1,385,902 1,401,089 1,412,737 1,427,942 1,437,068 1,458,475 1,509,123 1,523,339 1,525,835 1,547,401 1,559,619 1,778,828 1,784,209 1,803,305 1,804,657 1,805,925 1,864,250 1,866,669 1,886,7005/1/92-4/30/93 394,760 828,953 1,154,592 1,308,902 1,479,816 1,628,503 1,702,747 1,774,947 1,847,618 1,956,001 2,008,825 2,042,237 2,081,676 2,152,226 2,163,013 2,168,917 2,131,855 2,174,344 2,180,281 2,185,873 2,195,983 2,195,983 2,198,760 2,203,484 2,278,8125/1/93-4/30/94 470,300 1,005,549 1,556,782 1,870,343 2,077,123 2,156,089 2,227,475 2,278,670 2,331,607 2,396,879 2,417,512 2,426,235 2,430,645 2,437,886 2,444,920 2,452,610 2,468,351 2,477,196 2,486,628 2,499,029 2,515,224 2,536,246 2,559,224 2,602,7825/1/94-4/30/95 576,064 1,626,859 1,848,250 1,996,137 2,082,499 2,188,243 2,243,821 2,299,633 2,338,567 2,375,042 2,390,562 2,405,785 2,435,889 2,441,894 2,445,212 2,445,652 2,445,652 2,445,652 2,448,660 2,449,855 2,485,624 2,594,152 2,593,9985/1/95-4/30/96 556,265 1,170,931 1,593,085 1,817,238 1,909,762 1,942,922 1,985,039 2,018,967 2,047,884 2,086,054 2,089,133 2,091,977 2,094,855 2,096,508 2,098,095 2,099,624 2,101,154 2,104,383 2,106,592 2,112,019 2,114,067 2,117,0555/1/96-4/30/97 407,426 970,219 1,200,706 1,496,682 1,896,007 1,985,234 1,993,899 2,020,421 2,042,903 2,065,754 2,088,792 2,121,584 2,233,733 2,237,865 2,238,883 2,239,519 2,243,824 2,244,526 2,244,648 2,244,648 2,244,6485/1/97-4/30/98 341,378 894,269 1,214,936 1,484,589 1,687,091 1,719,293 1,744,778 1,770,533 1,794,609 1,813,676 1,816,005 1,818,903 1,820,767 1,822,844 1,824,761 1,826,943 1,830,654 1,834,503 1,838,161 1,843,3385/1/98-4/30/99 574,676 1,006,372 1,360,115 1,489,850 1,552,377 1,548,540 1,559,722 1,565,108 1,567,860 1,570,154 1,574,656 1,577,995 1,582,413 1,589,075 1,606,901 1,618,819 1,631,370 1,632,949 1,635,0165/1/99-4/30/00 629,178 1,868,128 2,338,779 2,501,918 2,608,680 2,701,018 2,710,717 2,719,134 2,728,313 2,732,296 2,735,569 2,739,043 2,751,667 2,753,469 2,757,188 2,769,864 2,782,076 2,788,6575/1/00-4/30/01 771,580 1,870,273 2,871,947 3,050,298 3,104,821 3,136,231 3,173,921 3,200,845 3,216,626 3,242,840 3,267,230 3,284,874 3,300,434 3,313,975 3,329,208 3,342,173 3,351,1215/1/01-4/30/02 858,597 2,441,755 2,933,060 3,110,835 3,166,841 3,223,419 3,283,283 3,310,713 3,474,654 3,520,088 3,584,701 3,623,340 3,658,646 3,703,450 3,760,986 3,848,2985/1/02-4/30/03 1,055,296 2,513,818 2,831,288 2,874,462 2,894,530 2,940,553 2,952,614 2,973,292 2,992,383 3,016,444 3,061,623 3,096,194 3,258,649 3,268,946 3,273,3725/1/03-4/30/04 1,177,136 2,385,241 3,408,654 3,733,345 4,024,033 4,252,003 4,514,214 4,791,409 5,028,371 5,214,024 5,347,141 5,372,076 5,404,299 5,461,9955/1/04-4/30/05 1,006,224 2,478,778 3,286,135 4,113,876 4,748,606 5,236,262 5,791,286 6,342,682 6,709,959 7,172,244 7,418,191 7,522,914 7,598,7875/1/05-4/30/06 1,044,583 2,033,625 2,864,221 3,577,604 4,111,467 4,612,137 5,081,510 5,612,493 6,132,562 6,499,173 6,617,802 6,656,6295/1/06-4/30/07 1,195,394 2,392,915 2,984,844 3,431,025 3,755,363 4,127,228 4,461,911 4,774,028 5,159,379 5,577,476 5,804,5255/1/07-4/30/08 1,157,022 2,915,935 3,667,675 4,248,084 4,653,642 5,167,017 5,655,936 6,060,586 6,353,776 6,634,3275/1/08-4/30/09 1,252,004 2,707,367 3,594,795 4,120,200 4,521,976 4,880,623 5,178,527 5,308,451 5,415,6425/1/09-4/30/10 1,218,792 2,419,866 2,842,546 3,164,351 3,503,495 3,794,681 3,961,762 4,266,5985/1/10-4/30/11 1,329,218 2,764,808 3,754,746 4,609,950 5,209,225 5,920,533 6,407,5235/1/11-4/30/12 1,925,777 3,426,724 4,258,913 5,128,202 5,725,253 6,108,8225/1/12-4/30/13 1,787,588 4,440,375 5,178,272 5,749,418 6,517,3595/1/13-4/30/14 2,545,665 6,179,719 7,349,369 8,555,2965/1/14-4/30/15 3,243,964 5,559,410 6,743,9855/1/15-4/30/16 1,991,412 3,503,0325/1/16-4/30/17 1,952,288

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-192 192-204 204-216 216-228 228-240 240-252 252-264 264-276 276-288 288-300 300-312 312-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.677 1.373 1.092 1.048 1.017 1.012 1.014 1.011 1.008 1.011 1.006 1.015 1.035 1.009 1.002 1.014 1.008 1.141 1.003 1.011 1.001 1.001 1.032 1.001 1.0115/1/92-4/30/93 2.100 1.393 1.134 1.131 1.100 1.046 1.042 1.041 1.059 1.027 1.017 1.019 1.034 1.005 1.003 0.983 1.020 1.003 1.003 1.005 1.000 1.001 1.002 1.0345/1/93-4/30/94 2.138 1.548 1.201 1.111 1.038 1.033 1.023 1.023 1.028 1.009 1.004 1.002 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.006 1.004 1.004 1.005 1.006 1.008 1.009 1.0175/1/94-4/30/95 2.824 1.136 1.080 1.043 1.051 1.025 1.025 1.017 1.016 1.007 1.006 1.013 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.015 1.044 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 2.105 1.361 1.141 1.051 1.017 1.022 1.017 1.014 1.019 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.001 1.003 1.001 1.0015/1/96-4/30/97 2.381 1.238 1.247 1.267 1.047 1.004 1.013 1.011 1.011 1.011 1.016 1.053 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 2.620 1.359 1.222 1.136 1.019 1.015 1.015 1.014 1.011 1.001 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.0035/1/98-4/30/99 1.751 1.352 1.095 1.042 0.998 1.007 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.003 1.002 1.003 1.004 1.011 1.007 1.008 1.001 1.0015/1/99-4/30/00 2.969 1.252 1.070 1.043 1.035 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.005 1.001 1.001 1.005 1.004 1.0025/1/00-4/30/01 2.424 1.536 1.062 1.018 1.010 1.012 1.008 1.005 1.008 1.008 1.005 1.005 1.004 1.005 1.004 1.0035/1/01-4/30/02 2.844 1.201 1.061 1.018 1.018 1.019 1.008 1.050 1.013 1.018 1.011 1.010 1.012 1.016 1.0235/1/02-4/30/03 2.382 1.126 1.015 1.007 1.016 1.004 1.007 1.006 1.008 1.015 1.011 1.052 1.003 1.0015/1/03-4/30/04 2.026 1.429 1.095 1.078 1.057 1.062 1.061 1.049 1.037 1.026 1.005 1.006 1.0115/1/04-4/30/05 2.463 1.326 1.252 1.154 1.103 1.106 1.095 1.058 1.069 1.034 1.014 1.0105/1/05-4/30/06 1.947 1.408 1.249 1.149 1.122 1.102 1.104 1.093 1.060 1.018 1.0065/1/06-4/30/07 2.002 1.247 1.149 1.095 1.099 1.081 1.070 1.081 1.081 1.0415/1/07-4/30/08 2.520 1.258 1.158 1.095 1.110 1.095 1.072 1.048 1.0445/1/08-4/30/09 2.162 1.328 1.146 1.098 1.079 1.061 1.025 1.0205/1/09-4/30/10 1.985 1.175 1.113 1.107 1.083 1.044 1.0775/1/10-4/30/11 2.080 1.358 1.228 1.130 1.137 1.0825/1/11-4/30/12 1.779 1.243 1.204 1.116 1.0675/1/12-4/30/13 2.484 1.166 1.110 1.1345/1/13-4/30/14 2.428 1.189 1.1645/1/14-4/30/15 1.714 1.2135/1/15-4/30/16 1.759

All Years Weighted 2.151 1.269 1.145 1.097 1.069 1.054 1.047 1.039 1.037 1.019 1.008 1.013 1.008 1.005 1.006 1.002 1.004 1.015 1.002 1.006 1.012 1.003 1.016 1.019 1.0115 Years Weighted 2.010 1.220 1.164 1.119 1.096 1.074 1.069 1.060 1.058 1.028 1.009 1.014 1.007 1.007 1.010 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.002 1.006 1.0124 Years Weighted 2.057 1.200 1.170 1.123 1.092 1.073 1.060 1.060 1.063 1.030 1.009 1.016 1.008 1.006 1.011 1.004 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.006 1.014 1.0033 Years Weighted 1.959 1.191 1.158 1.127 1.096 1.065 1.057 1.049 1.060 1.031 1.009 1.017 1.009 1.008 1.011 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.002 1.006 1.019 1.003 1.016Industry 2.067 1.259 1.127 1.070 1.041 1.032 1.022 1.017 1.015 1.012 1.009 1.008 1.007 1.006 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.037Prior (4/30/15) 2.352 1.234 1.175 1.108 1.072 1.067 1.059 1.049 1.039 1.019 1.011 1.010 1.007 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.040

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-192 192-204 204-216 216-228 228-240 240-252 252-264 264-276 276-288 288-300 300-312 312-ULT

Age to Age 1.959 1.200 1.164 1.123 1.092 1.073 1.060 1.049 1.039 1.016 1.009 1.008 1.007 1.006 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.037Age to Ultimate 4.684 2.391 1.992 1.712 1.524 1.396 1.301 1.227 1.170 1.127 1.109 1.099 1.090 1.082 1.076 1.070 1.065 1.060 1.057 1.053 1.050 1.047 1.045 1.042 1.040 1.037

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

42

Page 45: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 5

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of April 30, 2017

Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,250,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 240 252 264 276 288 300 312

5/1/91-4/30/92 2,186,050 2,310,771 1,861,675 1,867,164 1,807,882 1,887,716 1,867,920 1,895,7585/1/92-4/30/93 2,195,368 2,208,692 2,185,873 2,225,200 2,222,929 2,198,760 2,293,766 2,293,6715/1/93-4/30/94 2,666,568 2,666,568 2,574,395 2,574,395 2,574,957 2,574,957 2,579,957 2,641,3795/1/94-4/30/95 2,445,652 2,445,652 2,446,387 2,467,189 2,449,855 2,508,308 2,664,775 2,593,9985/1/95-4/30/96 2,138,003 2,138,003 2,115,394 2,115,394 2,115,394 2,119,262 2,119,746 2,119,9675/1/96-4/30/97 2,465,600 2,473,471 2,467,163 2,476,934 2,468,342 2,335,523 2,332,854 2,332,5335/1/97-4/30/98 1,855,860 1,855,860 1,839,822 1,839,822 1,839,822 1,845,322 1,844,239 1,857,2195/1/98-4/30/99 1,596,105 1,613,504 1,634,270 1,661,770 1,644,096 1,650,885 1,650,487 1,650,4875/1/99-4/30/00 2,781,809 2,784,840 2,764,380 2,759,627 2,769,023 2,793,823 2,804,885 2,815,2425/1/00-4/30/01 3,418,842 3,436,793 3,420,573 3,421,823 3,428,248 3,431,580 3,431,815 3,432,9155/1/01-4/30/02 4,273,955 4,274,164 3,829,584 3,835,750 3,866,250 3,855,750 3,847,250 3,950,4425/1/02-4/30/03 3,017,399 3,011,498 3,025,997 3,082,510 3,126,595 3,280,337 3,285,337 3,288,2445/1/03-4/30/04 5,541,293 5,603,587 5,594,976 5,623,133 5,637,736 5,583,996 5,592,327 5,647,6185/1/04-4/30/05 8,391,381 8,523,168 8,591,857 8,710,043 8,501,443 8,444,171 8,328,404 8,331,2965/1/05-4/30/06 6,876,705 6,809,184 6,886,481 7,206,269 7,382,016 7,346,503 7,190,154 7,172,7055/1/06-4/30/07 5,949,171 5,854,860 5,709,291 5,768,051 5,730,507 5,904,788 6,085,656 6,161,7115/1/07-4/30/08 6,876,498 6,997,633 7,435,119 8,114,325 8,178,115 8,272,261 9,073,147 9,063,8475/1/08-4/30/09 5,280,945 5,591,893 5,781,240 6,142,050 6,263,881 6,516,101 6,637,460 7,064,8295/1/09-4/30/10 2,252,596 3,354,785 3,921,266 3,990,759 4,055,767 4,431,597 4,518,403 4,909,8215/1/10-4/30/11 2,327,560 3,687,844 5,208,964 5,841,892 6,393,188 7,197,236 7,831,2925/1/11-4/30/12 4,080,520 4,704,060 5,139,961 6,067,540 6,666,706 7,470,4875/1/12-4/30/13 3,511,291 5,918,571 6,185,049 6,892,536 7,923,9935/1/13-4/30/14 4,434,878 8,132,610 9,726,190 10,822,9755/1/14-4/30/15 6,185,338 7,636,266 8,268,0515/1/15-4/30/16 4,205,152 4,898,7085/1/16-4/30/17 3,915,149

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-192 192-204 204-216 216-228 228-240 240-252 252-264 264-276 276-288 288-300 300-312 312-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.057 0.806 1.003 0.968 1.044 0.990 1.0155/1/92-4/30/93 1.006 0.990 1.018 0.999 0.989 1.043 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.000 0.965 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.0245/1/94-4/30/95 1.000 1.000 1.009 0.993 1.024 1.062 0.9735/1/95-4/30/96 1.000 0.989 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 1.003 0.997 1.004 0.997 0.946 0.999 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 1.000 0.991 1.000 1.000 1.003 0.999 1.0075/1/98-4/30/99 1.011 1.013 1.017 0.989 1.004 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 1.001 0.993 0.998 1.003 1.009 1.004 1.0045/1/00-4/30/01 1.005 0.995 1.000 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 1.000 0.896 1.002 1.008 0.997 0.998 1.0275/1/02-4/30/03 0.998 1.005 1.019 1.014 1.049 1.002 1.0015/1/03-4/30/04 1.011 0.998 1.005 1.003 0.990 1.001 1.0105/1/04-4/30/05 1.016 1.008 1.014 0.976 0.993 0.986 1.0005/1/05-4/30/06 0.990 1.011 1.046 1.024 0.995 0.979 0.9985/1/06-4/30/07 0.984 0.975 1.010 0.993 1.030 1.031 1.0125/1/07-4/30/08 1.018 1.063 1.091 1.008 1.012 1.097 0.9995/1/08-4/30/09 1.059 1.034 1.062 1.020 1.040 1.019 1.0645/1/09-4/30/10 1.489 1.169 1.018 1.016 1.093 1.020 1.0875/1/10-4/30/11 1.584 1.412 1.122 1.094 1.126 1.0885/1/11-4/30/12 1.153 1.093 1.180 1.099 1.1215/1/12-4/30/13 1.686 1.045 1.114 1.1505/1/13-4/30/14 1.834 1.196 1.1135/1/14-4/30/15 1.235 1.0835/1/15-4/30/16 1.165

All Years Weighted 1.420 1.138 1.088 1.071 1.059 1.028 1.022 1.037 0.999 0.987 0.996 1.007 1.003 1.001 1.006 1.000 1.000 0.988 1.006 0.975 1.014 0.984 1.036 0.995 1.0155 Years Weighted 1.396 1.148 1.114 1.091 1.091 1.035 1.028 1.047 0.999 0.998 0.995 1.008 1.003 1.002 1.008 1.002 1.001 0.989 1.000 1.008 1.0144 Years Weighted 1.450 1.111 1.128 1.099 1.091 1.040 1.023 1.057 0.998 0.996 0.994 1.009 1.003 1.001 1.009 1.002 1.001 0.983 1.000 1.006 1.016 0.9843 Years Weighted 1.394 1.115 1.130 1.116 1.116 1.054 1.032 1.068 1.006 0.994 0.991 1.010 1.004 1.000 1.013 1.002 1.002 0.978 1.002 1.008 1.022 0.988 1.036Industry 1.325 1.122 1.048 1.023 1.019 1.015 1.011 1.009 1.008 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.016Prior (4/30/15) 1.605 1.096 1.094 1.060 1.031 1.020 1.012 1.009 1.008 1.006 1.005 1.005 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.016

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-192 192-204 204-216 216-228 228-240 240-252 252-264 264-276 276-288 288-300 300-312 312-ULT

Age to Age 1.396 1.130 1.115 1.099 1.091 1.040 1.023 1.018 1.008 1.007 1.005 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.016Age to Ultimate 2.442 1.750 1.549 1.389 1.264 1.159 1.115 1.090 1.071 1.063 1.056 1.051 1.047 1.043 1.039 1.036 1.033 1.030 1.028 1.026 1.024 1.022 1.021 1.019 1.018 1.016

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

43

Page 46: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 6

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of April 30, 2017

Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,250,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 240 252 264 276 288 300 312

5/1/91-4/30/92 1,778,828 1,784,209 1,803,305 1,804,657 1,805,925 1,864,250 1,866,669 1,886,7005/1/92-4/30/93 2,174,344 2,180,281 2,185,873 2,195,983 2,195,983 2,198,760 2,203,484 2,278,8125/1/93-4/30/94 2,468,351 2,477,196 2,486,628 2,499,029 2,515,224 2,536,246 2,559,224 2,624,1165/1/94-4/30/95 2,445,652 2,445,652 2,445,652 2,448,660 2,449,855 2,485,624 2,594,152 2,593,9985/1/95-4/30/96 2,098,095 2,099,624 2,101,154 2,104,383 2,106,592 2,112,019 2,114,067 2,117,0555/1/96-4/30/97 2,262,248 2,359,830 2,364,281 2,370,703 2,372,687 2,245,907 2,244,969 2,245,0695/1/97-4/30/98 1,820,767 1,822,844 1,824,761 1,826,943 1,830,654 1,834,503 1,838,161 1,843,3385/1/98-4/30/99 1,577,995 1,582,413 1,589,075 1,606,901 1,618,819 1,631,370 1,632,949 1,635,0165/1/99-4/30/00 2,735,569 2,739,043 2,751,667 2,753,469 2,757,188 2,769,864 2,782,076 2,788,6575/1/00-4/30/01 3,242,840 3,267,230 3,284,874 3,300,434 3,313,975 3,329,208 3,342,173 3,351,1215/1/01-4/30/02 3,474,654 3,520,088 3,584,701 3,623,340 3,658,646 3,703,450 3,760,986 3,848,2985/1/02-4/30/03 2,973,292 2,992,383 3,016,444 3,061,623 3,096,194 3,258,649 3,268,946 3,273,3725/1/03-4/30/04 4,514,214 4,791,409 5,028,371 5,261,758 5,361,034 5,374,904 5,404,299 5,461,9955/1/04-4/30/05 5,236,262 5,800,328 6,483,449 6,968,699 7,429,377 7,683,997 7,790,987 7,866,0105/1/05-4/30/06 4,111,467 4,612,137 5,081,510 5,613,303 6,189,410 6,622,837 6,778,254 6,830,2465/1/06-4/30/07 3,431,025 3,755,363 4,127,228 4,461,911 4,774,028 5,159,379 5,577,476 5,815,1135/1/07-4/30/08 3,667,675 4,280,146 4,728,136 5,528,785 6,136,228 6,670,262 7,146,832 7,605,1375/1/08-4/30/09 2,707,367 3,594,795 4,120,200 4,593,104 5,116,623 5,581,933 5,993,732 6,332,2415/1/09-4/30/10 1,218,792 2,419,866 2,842,546 3,164,351 3,503,495 3,794,681 3,961,762 4,266,5985/1/10-4/30/11 1,329,218 2,764,808 3,754,746 4,609,950 5,209,225 5,944,038 6,607,8025/1/11-4/30/12 1,925,777 3,426,724 4,258,913 5,335,814 6,042,961 6,597,4235/1/12-4/30/13 1,787,588 4,745,480 5,484,033 6,055,179 6,823,1205/1/13-4/30/14 2,545,665 6,391,255 7,813,849 9,084,4275/1/14-4/30/15 3,243,964 5,559,410 6,743,9855/1/15-4/30/16 1,991,412 3,503,0325/1/16-4/30/17 1,952,288

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-192 192-204 204-216 216-228 228-240 240-252 252-264 264-276 276-288 288-300 300-312 312-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.003 1.011 1.001 1.001 1.032 1.001 1.0115/1/92-4/30/93 1.003 1.003 1.005 1.000 1.001 1.002 1.0345/1/93-4/30/94 1.004 1.004 1.005 1.006 1.008 1.009 1.0255/1/94-4/30/95 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.015 1.044 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.001 1.003 1.001 1.0015/1/96-4/30/97 1.043 1.002 1.003 1.001 0.947 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.0035/1/98-4/30/99 1.003 1.004 1.011 1.007 1.008 1.001 1.0015/1/99-4/30/00 1.001 1.005 1.001 1.001 1.005 1.004 1.0025/1/00-4/30/01 1.008 1.005 1.005 1.004 1.005 1.004 1.0035/1/01-4/30/02 1.013 1.018 1.011 1.010 1.012 1.016 1.0235/1/02-4/30/03 1.006 1.008 1.015 1.011 1.052 1.003 1.0015/1/03-4/30/04 1.061 1.049 1.046 1.019 1.003 1.005 1.0115/1/04-4/30/05 1.108 1.118 1.075 1.066 1.034 1.014 1.0105/1/05-4/30/06 1.122 1.102 1.105 1.103 1.070 1.023 1.0085/1/06-4/30/07 1.095 1.099 1.081 1.070 1.081 1.081 1.0435/1/07-4/30/08 1.167 1.105 1.169 1.110 1.087 1.071 1.0645/1/08-4/30/09 1.328 1.146 1.115 1.114 1.091 1.074 1.0565/1/09-4/30/10 1.985 1.175 1.113 1.107 1.083 1.044 1.0775/1/10-4/30/11 2.080 1.358 1.228 1.130 1.141 1.1125/1/11-4/30/12 1.779 1.243 1.253 1.133 1.0925/1/12-4/30/13 2.655 1.156 1.104 1.1275/1/13-4/30/14 2.511 1.223 1.1635/1/14-4/30/15 1.714 1.2135/1/15-4/30/16 1.759

All Years Weighted 2.052 1.231 1.167 1.118 1.118 1.095 1.086 1.068 1.056 1.025 1.008 1.012 1.006 1.011 1.008 1.003 1.002 0.993 1.002 1.006 1.012 1.003 1.019 1.019 1.0115 Years Weighted 2.055 1.226 1.170 1.124 1.121 1.091 1.083 1.077 1.066 1.028 1.009 1.014 1.007 1.007 1.010 1.004 1.002 0.989 1.002 1.006 1.0124 Years Weighted 2.111 1.208 1.177 1.126 1.109 1.093 1.078 1.077 1.070 1.030 1.009 1.015 1.008 1.006 1.011 1.004 1.002 0.985 1.001 1.006 1.014 1.0033 Years Weighted 1.986 1.200 1.166 1.130 1.107 1.087 1.080 1.069 1.071 1.033 1.009 1.016 1.009 1.008 1.011 1.004 1.002 0.979 1.002 1.006 1.019 1.003 1.019Industry 2.076 1.260 1.128 1.071 1.041 1.033 1.023 1.018 1.016 1.013 1.010 1.009 1.008 1.007 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.050Prior (4/30/15) 2.449 1.231 1.189 1.109 1.089 1.081 1.068 1.055 1.044 1.021 1.012 1.011 1.008 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.053

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-192 192-204 204-216 216-228 228-240 240-252 252-264 264-276 276-288 288-300 300-312 312-ULT

Age to Age 1.986 1.208 1.170 1.130 1.109 1.093 1.078 1.071 1.056 1.025 1.010 1.009 1.008 1.007 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.050Age to Ultimate 5.420 2.729 2.260 1.932 1.711 1.543 1.411 1.309 1.223 1.158 1.129 1.118 1.109 1.100 1.093 1.086 1.081 1.076 1.072 1.068 1.065 1.062 1.059 1.056 1.053 1.050

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgme

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

44

Page 47: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 7

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of April 30, 2017

Reported Claim Counts excluding Claims Closed with no Payment

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 240 252 264 276 288 300 312

5/1/91-4/30/92 583 627 628 628 628 628 628 628 628 628 628 628 629 629 629 629 629 629 629 629 629 629 629 629 629 6295/1/92-4/30/93 632 664 662 662 662 662 662 662 662 662 662 662 662 662 662 662 662 662 662 662 662 662 662 662 6625/1/93-4/30/94 628 660 662 662 662 662 662 662 662 663 663 663 663 663 663 663 663 663 663 663 663 663 663 6635/1/94-4/30/95 636 692 696 697 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 696 6965/1/95-4/30/96 681 699 695 695 694 694 695 695 695 695 695 695 695 695 695 695 695 695 695 695 695 6955/1/96-4/30/97 568 563 564 564 565 565 566 567 567 567 567 567 567 567 567 567 567 567 567 567 5675/1/97-4/30/98 539 571 569 569 568 568 568 568 568 568 568 568 568 568 568 568 568 568 568 5685/1/98-4/30/99 656 686 687 688 688 688 688 688 688 688 688 688 688 688 688 688 688 688 6885/1/99-4/30/00 780 800 798 798 798 798 798 798 798 798 798 798 798 798 798 798 798 7985/1/00-4/30/01 766 774 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 779 779 7795/1/01-4/30/02 812 830 835 835 836 836 837 837 837 837 837 837 837 837 837 8375/1/02-4/30/03 729 742 742 741 741 741 741 741 741 741 741 741 741 741 7415/1/03-4/30/04 803 807 805 806 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 8085/1/04-4/30/05 743 737 738 742 742 742 743 743 743 743 743 743 7435/1/05-4/30/06 769 773 776 776 777 777 778 778 778 778 777 7775/1/06-4/30/07 815 827 832 831 831 831 832 832 833 835 8355/1/07-4/30/08 727 758 760 761 761 761 760 760 760 7605/1/08-4/30/09 661 672 672 673 673 674 674 675 6755/1/09-4/30/10 687 701 703 705 705 706 706 7065/1/10-4/30/11 731 747 749 748 748 748 7495/1/11-4/30/12 768 785 784 786 786 7885/1/12-4/30/13 747 738 742 742 7425/1/13-4/30/14 770 794 797 7975/1/14-4/30/15 764 763 7645/1/15-4/30/16 629 6315/1/16-4/30/17 659

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-192 192-204 204-216 216-228 228-240 240-252 252-264 264-276 276-288 288-300 300-312 312-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.075 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/92-4/30/93 1.051 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.051 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/94-4/30/95 1.088 1.006 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 1.026 0.994 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 0.991 1.002 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.002 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 1.059 0.996 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/98-4/30/99 1.046 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 1.026 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/00-4/30/01 1.010 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 1.022 1.006 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/02-4/30/03 1.018 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/03-4/30/04 1.005 0.998 1.001 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/04-4/30/05 0.992 1.001 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/05-4/30/06 1.005 1.004 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.0005/1/06-4/30/07 1.015 1.006 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.002 1.0005/1/07-4/30/08 1.043 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/08-4/30/09 1.017 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.0005/1/09-4/30/10 1.020 1.003 1.003 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.0005/1/10-4/30/11 1.022 1.003 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.0015/1/11-4/30/12 1.022 0.999 1.003 1.000 1.0035/1/12-4/30/13 0.988 1.005 1.000 1.0005/1/13-4/30/14 1.031 1.004 1.0005/1/14-4/30/15 0.999 1.0015/1/15-4/30/16 1.003

All Years Weighted 1.024 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005 Years Weighted 1.009 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0004 Years Weighted 1.005 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0003 Years Weighted 1.012 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Prior (4/30/15) 1.022 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-192 192-204 204-216 216-228 228-240 240-252 252-264 264-276 276-288 288-300 300-312 312-ULT

Age to Age 1.009 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Age to Ultimate 1.015 1.006 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

45

Page 48: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 8

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of April 30, 2017

Open Claims

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 240 252 264 276 288 300 312

5/1/91-4/30/92 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 1 1 25/1/92-4/30/93 5 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 15/1/93-4/30/94 3 3 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 25/1/94-4/30/95 3 2 2 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 3 1 05/1/95-4/30/96 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 15/1/96-4/30/97 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 15/1/97-4/30/98 9 6 3 4 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 25/1/98-4/30/99 12 6 4 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 15/1/99-4/30/00 15 4 4 1 0 1 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 4 35/1/00-4/30/01 57 12 6 3 3 1 6 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 55/1/01-4/30/02 330 30 10 6 3 4 6 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 25/1/02-4/30/03 246 37 13 3 2 5 6 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 25/1/03-4/30/04 291 33 11 11 9 12 10 11 9 10 7 4 7 75/1/04-4/30/05 263 34 26 23 22 19 21 17 17 17 12 11 135/1/05-4/30/06 275 28 27 21 19 19 19 18 16 13 9 75/1/06-4/30/07 321 61 27 21 17 15 16 19 16 16 155/1/07-4/30/08 273 53 29 24 18 19 18 17 18 175/1/08-4/30/09 209 50 26 17 19 20 12 11 125/1/09-4/30/10 200 46 29 21 13 15 13 115/1/10-4/30/11 155 41 32 20 15 17 155/1/11-4/30/12 190 75 38 21 18 165/1/12-4/30/13 323 69 37 22 175/1/13-4/30/14 255 69 43 315/1/14-4/30/15 271 77 425/1/15-4/30/16 222 565/1/16-4/30/17 226

Closed Claims

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 240 252 264 276 288 300 312

5/1/91-4/30/92 624 625 627 627 627 627 627 627 627 627 626 626 628 628 628 6275/1/92-4/30/93 657 661 660 661 660 661 660 660 661 661 662 660 661 662 661 6615/1/93-4/30/94 659 660 662 662 662 661 662 660 661 661 661 661 661 661 661 6615/1/94-4/30/95 693 694 694 695 696 694 694 696 696 696 695 695 696 693 695 6965/1/95-4/30/96 693 694 694 695 695 695 694 694 694 694 694 694 694 694 694 6945/1/96-4/30/97 563 563 565 565 565 565 564 566 566 565 566 565 565 566 566 5665/1/97-4/30/98 559 562 565 564 566 565 566 567 567 567 567 567 567 566 566 5665/1/98-4/30/99 676 682 684 686 688 687 687 687 687 687 686 686 686 686 686 6875/1/99-4/30/00 783 794 794 797 798 797 795 796 796 795 796 796 795 795 794 7955/1/00-4/30/01 717 766 772 775 775 777 772 775 773 774 774 774 774 775 775 7745/1/01-4/30/02 482 800 825 829 833 832 831 833 833 833 833 835 835 835 835 8355/1/02-4/30/03 483 705 729 738 739 736 735 738 737 737 738 738 739 739 7395/1/03-4/30/04 512 774 794 795 799 796 798 797 799 798 801 804 801 8015/1/04-4/30/05 480 703 712 719 720 723 722 726 726 726 731 732 7305/1/05-4/30/06 494 745 749 755 758 758 759 760 762 765 768 7705/1/06-4/30/07 494 766 805 810 814 816 816 813 817 819 8205/1/07-4/30/08 454 705 731 737 743 742 742 743 742 7435/1/08-4/30/09 452 622 646 656 654 654 662 664 6635/1/09-4/30/10 487 655 674 684 692 691 693 6955/1/10-4/30/11 576 706 717 728 733 731 7345/1/11-4/30/12 578 710 746 765 768 7725/1/12-4/30/13 424 669 705 720 7255/1/13-4/30/14 515 725 754 7665/1/14-4/30/15 493 686 7225/1/15-4/30/16 407 5755/1/16-4/30/17 433

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

46

Page 49: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 7Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Paid Loss & ALAE / Closed Claims - Limited to $500K

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 240 252 264 276 288 300 312

5/1/91-4/30/92 2,288 2,299 2,326 2,407 2,430 2,434 2,468 2,487 2,837 2,846 2,881 2,883 2,876 2,969 2,972 3,009 5/1/92-4/30/93 2,977 3,039 3,094 3,149 3,261 3,272 3,286 3,230 3,289 3,298 3,302 3,327 3,322 3,321 3,334 3,448 5/1/93-4/30/94 3,538 3,632 3,652 3,665 3,672 3,688 3,693 3,716 3,734 3,748 3,762 3,781 3,805 3,837 3,872 3,938 5/1/94-4/30/95 3,318 3,370 3,422 3,440 3,457 3,510 3,519 3,513 3,514 3,514 3,519 3,523 3,520 3,587 3,733 3,727 5/1/95-4/30/96 2,864 2,909 2,951 3,002 3,006 3,010 3,019 3,021 3,023 3,025 3,028 3,032 3,035 3,043 3,046 3,051 5/1/96-4/30/97 3,526 3,542 3,576 3,616 3,656 3,697 3,762 3,947 3,954 3,963 3,957 3,971 3,973 3,966 3,966 3,966 5/1/97-4/30/98 3,018 3,059 3,088 3,139 3,171 3,210 3,208 3,208 3,211 3,215 3,218 3,222 3,229 3,241 3,248 3,257 5/1/98-4/30/99 2,204 2,276 2,264 2,274 2,275 2,282 2,286 2,292 2,297 2,303 2,316 2,342 2,360 2,378 2,380 2,380 5/1/99-4/30/00 2,987 3,151 3,285 3,389 3,397 3,412 3,432 3,433 3,437 3,445 3,457 3,459 3,468 3,484 3,504 3,508 5/1/00-4/30/01 2,608 3,749 3,951 4,006 4,047 4,085 4,146 4,150 4,195 4,221 4,244 4,264 4,282 4,296 4,312 4,330 5/1/01-4/30/02 1,781 3,052 3,555 3,753 3,802 3,874 3,951 3,974 4,171 4,226 4,303 4,339 4,382 4,435 4,504 4,609 5/1/02-4/30/03 2,185 3,566 3,884 3,895 3,917 3,995 4,017 4,029 4,060 4,093 4,149 4,195 4,410 4,423 4,429 5/1/03-4/30/04 2,299 3,082 4,293 4,696 5,036 5,342 5,657 6,012 6,293 6,534 6,676 6,682 6,747 6,819 5/1/04-4/30/05 2,096 3,526 4,615 5,722 6,595 7,242 8,021 8,736 9,242 9,879 10,148 10,277 10,409 5/1/05-4/30/06 2,115 2,730 3,824 4,739 5,424 6,085 6,695 7,385 8,048 8,496 8,617 8,645 5/1/06-4/30/07 2,420 3,124 3,708 4,236 4,613 5,058 5,468 5,872 6,315 6,810 7,079 5/1/07-4/30/08 2,549 4,136 5,017 5,764 6,263 6,964 7,623 8,157 8,563 8,929 5/1/08-4/30/09 2,770 4,353 5,565 6,281 6,914 7,463 7,823 7,995 8,168 5/1/09-4/30/10 2,503 3,694 4,217 4,626 5,063 5,492 5,717 6,139 5/1/10-4/30/11 2,308 3,916 5,237 6,332 7,107 8,099 8,730 5/1/11-4/30/12 3,332 4,826 5,709 6,704 7,455 7,913 5/1/12-4/30/13 4,216 6,637 7,345 7,985 8,989 5/1/13-4/30/14 4,943 8,524 9,747 11,169 5/1/14-4/30/15 6,580 8,104 9,341 5/1/15-4/30/16 4,893 6,092 5/1/16-4/30/17 4,509

Paid Loss & ALAE / Reported Loss & ALAE - Limited to $500K

Accident Period 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 240 252 264 276 288 300 312

5/1/91-4/30/92 0.539 0.697 0.859 0.889 0.861 0.967 0.979 0.973 0.983 0.982 0.967 0.969 0.974 0.964 0.972 0.973 0.960 0.972 0.863 0.816 0.969 0.967 0.999 0.988 0.999 0.9955/1/92-4/30/93 0.407 0.589 0.694 0.714 0.758 0.812 0.836 0.844 0.876 0.875 0.967 0.927 0.942 0.939 0.958 0.960 1.000 0.990 0.987 1.000 0.987 0.988 1.000 0.961 0.9945/1/93-4/30/94 0.365 0.528 0.625 0.733 0.857 0.886 0.915 0.873 0.893 0.959 0.970 0.972 0.973 0.975 0.978 0.950 0.944 0.948 0.966 0.971 0.977 0.985 0.992 0.9955/1/94-4/30/95 0.339 0.674 0.747 0.830 0.894 0.908 0.848 0.866 0.979 0.989 0.994 1.000 0.996 0.985 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.992 1.000 0.991 0.973 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 0.501 0.638 0.790 0.839 0.933 0.953 0.958 0.977 0.989 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.994 0.981 0.982 0.993 0.995 0.996 0.997 0.997 0.9995/1/96-4/30/97 0.270 0.651 0.698 0.760 0.896 0.964 0.963 0.968 0.978 0.973 0.983 0.990 1.000 1.000 0.997 1.000 0.998 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 0.340 0.592 0.719 0.800 0.939 0.950 0.966 0.971 0.989 0.986 0.991 0.987 0.981 0.982 0.992 0.993 0.995 0.994 0.997 0.9935/1/98-4/30/99 0.421 0.639 0.805 0.856 0.951 0.955 0.989 1.000 0.991 0.992 0.980 0.989 0.981 0.972 0.967 0.985 0.988 0.989 0.9915/1/99-4/30/00 0.397 0.725 0.878 0.962 0.957 0.999 1.000 0.996 0.997 0.987 0.983 0.984 0.995 0.998 0.996 0.991 0.992 0.9915/1/00-4/30/01 0.401 0.592 0.937 0.973 0.969 0.976 0.998 0.997 0.973 0.949 0.951 0.960 0.965 0.967 0.970 0.974 0.9765/1/01-4/30/02 0.374 0.817 0.887 0.939 0.955 0.939 0.948 0.833 0.835 0.846 0.936 0.945 0.946 0.961 0.978 0.9745/1/02-4/30/03 0.502 0.836 0.953 0.988 0.972 0.976 0.965 0.985 0.994 0.997 0.993 0.990 0.993 0.995 0.9955/1/03-4/30/04 0.436 0.544 0.786 0.767 0.847 0.788 0.828 0.869 0.913 0.942 0.962 0.977 0.978 0.9795/1/04-4/30/05 0.377 0.613 0.618 0.785 0.714 0.683 0.745 0.829 0.857 0.923 0.952 0.970 0.9705/1/05-4/30/06 0.446 0.486 0.590 0.615 0.616 0.698 0.761 0.812 0.878 0.936 0.973 0.9815/1/06-4/30/07 0.412 0.708 0.640 0.609 0.678 0.742 0.794 0.843 0.884 0.927 0.9555/1/07-4/30/08 0.623 0.553 0.562 0.671 0.717 0.755 0.815 0.864 0.886 0.9245/1/08-4/30/09 0.363 0.536 0.706 0.780 0.824 0.884 0.909 0.940 0.9445/1/09-4/30/10 0.541 0.721 0.725 0.793 0.864 0.856 0.877 0.8755/1/10-4/30/11 0.571 0.750 0.721 0.798 0.851 0.891 0.9145/1/11-4/30/12 0.557 0.728 0.829 0.883 0.912 0.9265/1/12-4/30/13 0.509 0.804 0.881 0.873 0.8575/1/13-4/30/14 0.574 0.837 0.819 0.8495/1/14-4/30/15 0.529 0.746 0.8355/1/15-4/30/16 0.474 0.7155/1/16-4/30/17 0.499

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

47

Page 50: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 7Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Case Reserve per $1M Payroll (Based on $500K data)

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216

5/1/00-4/30/01 5,610 6,288 944 408 484 375 26 44 429 857 826 661 591 557 499 437 3985/1/01-4/30/02 6,561 2,497 1,717 924 690 958 818 3,043 3,146 2,939 1,120 972 950 697 395 4675/1/02-4/30/03 4,497 2,122 594 151 363 307 454 189 82 41 90 130 93 70 645/1/03-4/30/04 6,178 8,121 3,763 4,616 2,951 4,646 3,819 2,940 1,943 1,296 854 505 486 4765/1/04-4/30/05 6,394 6,011 7,809 4,327 7,298 9,352 7,621 5,015 4,302 2,304 1,439 881 9175/1/05-4/30/06 4,719 7,822 7,222 8,132 9,303 7,236 5,796 4,738 3,083 1,621 659 4795/1/06-4/30/07 5,892 3,397 5,796 7,597 6,154 4,937 3,985 3,064 2,336 1,518 9465/1/07-4/30/08 2,299 7,745 9,408 6,852 6,039 5,519 4,227 3,144 2,686 1,7915/1/08-4/30/09 7,038 7,505 4,801 3,724 3,087 2,056 1,669 1,081 1,0335/1/09-4/30/10 3,317 2,999 3,461 2,651 1,772 2,043 1,786 1,9625/1/10-4/30/11 3,212 2,970 4,679 3,760 2,936 2,320 1,9485/1/11-4/30/12 4,894 4,083 2,816 2,168 1,772 1,5595/1/12-4/30/13 5,479 3,444 2,228 2,662 3,4695/1/13-4/30/14 5,919 3,769 5,097 4,7555/1/14-4/30/15 8,829 5,790 4,0725/1/15-4/30/16 6,607 4,1655/1/16-4/30/17 5,980

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

48

Page 51: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 7Sheet 3

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216

5/1/00-4/30/01 22,643 16,152 13,949 33,103 25,668 5,342 1,510 29,343 35,200 42,391 33,925 30,347 28,568 25,593 22,410 16,3595/1/01-4/30/02 4,346 18,191 37,522 33,657 50,255 52,330 29,812 166,292 171,924 160,618 61,221 106,205 103,802 76,150 43,132 51,0725/1/02-4/30/03 4,263 13,371 10,659 11,733 42,275 14,340 17,651 14,703 4,779 2,388 6,962 10,134 10,844 8,195 7,4365/1/03-4/30/04 5,229 60,611 84,256 103,343 80,754 95,354 94,048 65,826 53,174 31,910 30,030 31,121 17,097 16,7535/1/04-4/30/05 6,323 45,979 78,113 48,936 86,278 128,014 94,387 76,733 65,818 35,256 31,196 20,824 18,3395/1/05-4/30/06 4,722 76,871 73,600 106,551 134,727 104,790 83,935 72,428 53,018 34,320 20,160 18,8365/1/06-4/30/07 5,324 16,152 62,260 104,922 104,983 95,450 72,239 46,764 42,340 27,513 18,2835/1/07-4/30/08 2,561 44,447 98,665 86,829 102,038 88,341 71,425 56,256 45,387 32,0475/1/08-4/30/09 10,514 46,864 57,650 68,403 50,724 32,102 43,438 30,683 26,8785/1/09-4/30/10 5,169 20,324 37,197 39,353 42,482 42,461 42,819 55,6095/1/10-4/30/11 6,441 22,513 45,444 58,433 60,827 42,411 40,3565/1/11-4/30/12 8,059 17,031 23,185 32,295 30,804 30,4895/1/12-4/30/13 5,337 15,703 18,946 38,062 64,2065/1/13-4/30/14 7,409 17,433 37,833 48,9575/1/14-4/30/15 10,669 24,627 31,7515/1/15-4/30/16 9,972 24,9235/1/16-4/30/17 8,685

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Average Case Reserve per Open Claim (Based on $500K data)

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

49

Page 52: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 8

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Workers CompensationData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Comparison of Expected Development to Actual Development

SECTION I - REPORTED LOSS & ALAE ActualChange in Expected Actual Selected Change in Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Expected Percent Reported Change in Minus Ultimate Loss Due to Due to TotalFiscal Selected Ultimate as of 6/30/15 Actual Reported Loss & ALAE as of Reported as of 6/15 - 6/17 Reported Expected & ALAE as of Change in Change in Change SinceYears Actual Adjusted 6/30/15 6/30/17 6/30/15 6/30/17 (2b) - (2a) 6/15 - 6/17 (4) - (5) 6/30/17 Exposures Experience Prior

(1a) (1b) (2a) (2b) (3a) (3b) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8a) = (1b) - (1a) (8b) = (7) - (1b) (8c) = (8a) + (8b)

7/1/90-6/30/91 * 1,934,394 1,934,394 1,913,674 2,002,138 98.9% 99.1% 88,463 3,213 85,251 2,021,086 0 86,693 86,6937/1/91-6/30/92 1,847,884 1,847,884 1,815,083 1,823,126 98.8% 99.0% 8,043 5,002 3,040 1,860,556 0 12,672 12,6727/1/92-6/30/93 2,233,888 2,233,888 2,233,888 2,329,020 98.5% 98.7% 95,132 0 95,132 2,358,207 0 124,319 124,3197/1/93-6/30/94 2,794,882 2,794,882 2,749,848 2,789,403 98.4% 98.6% 39,555 6,672 32,883 2,803,276 0 8,394 8,3947/1/94-6/30/95 2,695,902 2,695,902 2,648,840 2,622,144 98.3% 98.5% (26,696) 6,968 (33,665) 2,622,144 0 (73,758) (73,758)7/1/95-6/30/96 1,896,549 1,896,549 1,884,601 1,885,306 98.1% 98.4% 705 1,768 (1,063) 1,896,756 0 207 2077/1/96-6/30/97 2,242,028 2,242,028 2,227,300 2,226,218 98.0% 98.3% (1,083) 2,175 (3,257) 2,236,511 0 (5,518) (5,518)7/1/97-6/30/98 1,950,673 1,950,673 1,938,172 1,951,152 97.8% 98.1% 12,980 1,823 11,157 1,964,616 0 13,943 13,9437/1/98-6/30/99 2,146,793 2,146,793 2,124,530 2,124,530 97.6% 98.0% 0 3,275 (3,275) 2,141,652 0 (5,141) (5,141)7/1/99-6/30/00 2,466,296 2,466,296 2,426,067 2,447,486 97.4% 97.8% 21,419 6,031 15,388 2,466,414 0 118 1187/1/00-6/30/01 3,883,465 3,883,465 3,802,264 3,808,599 97.1% 97.6% 6,335 13,467 (7,132) 3,856,823 0 (26,642) (26,642)7/1/01-6/30/02 3,852,207 3,852,207 3,749,860 3,903,053 96.8% 97.4% 153,192 19,809 133,383 3,989,135 0 136,928 136,9287/1/02-6/30/03 3,205,156 3,205,156 3,113,127 3,105,296 96.4% 97.1% (7,831) 18,743 (26,575) 3,114,947 0 (90,209) (90,209)7/1/03-6/30/04 6,667,887 6,667,887 6,478,490 6,568,992 96.0% 96.8% 90,501 37,870 52,631 6,716,457 0 48,570 48,5707/1/04-6/30/05 8,156,167 8,156,167 7,842,451 8,128,383 95.3% 96.2% 285,932 60,226 225,706 8,350,746 0 194,579 194,5797/1/05-6/30/06 7,267,964 7,267,964 6,915,428 6,920,989 94.4% 95.5% 5,561 65,088 (59,527) 7,227,106 0 (40,858) (40,858)7/1/06-6/30/07 5,872,087 5,872,087 5,498,304 5,690,388 93.6% 94.9% 192,084 74,309 117,775 5,926,999 0 54,912 54,9127/1/07-6/30/08 8,232,887 8,232,887 7,657,426 8,071,738 92.6% 94.1% 414,312 120,650 293,662 8,526,874 0 293,987 293,9877/1/08-6/30/09 7,051,063 7,051,063 6,602,084 6,929,030 91.5% 93.4% 326,947 102,989 223,958 7,218,390 0 167,327 167,3277/1/09-6/30/10 5,450,158 5,450,158 4,892,282 5,516,133 89.8% 92.6% 623,851 154,405 469,446 5,916,564 0 466,407 466,4077/1/10-6/30/11 7,868,317 7,868,317 6,853,582 8,023,293 87.1% 91.5% 1,169,711 344,245 825,466 8,676,082 0 807,765 807,7657/1/11-6/30/12 6,702,846 6,702,846 5,516,179 6,697,027 82.2% 89.7% 1,180,848 499,432 681,416 7,533,906 0 831,060 831,0607/1/12-6/30/13 9,510,821 9,510,821 7,162,088 9,211,828 74.9% 86.8% 2,049,740 1,109,785 939,955 10,882,952 0 1,372,130 1,372,1307/1/13-6/30/14 11,827,623 11,827,623 8,689,311 12,337,243 68.1% 81.6% 3,647,932 1,331,777 2,316,155 14,770,597 0 2,942,974 2,942,9747/1/14-6/30/15 10,406,753 10,383,780 4,349,678 6,270,241 42.4% 74.6% 1,920,563 3,372,649 (1,452,086) 9,730,827 (22,973) (652,953) (675,926)7/1/15-6/30/16 11,187,072 11,095,116 0 5,257,223 0.0% 68.1% 5,257,223 7,555,493 (2,298,270) 9,456,892 (91,956) (1,638,224) (1,730,180)7/1/16-6/30/17 11,815,897 11,158,338 0 3,594,601 0.0% 42.4% 3,594,601 4,734,760 (1,140,158) 9,433,996 (657,559) (1,724,342) (2,381,901)

Total All Years 151,167,660 150,395,172 111,084,557 132,234,578 21,150,021 19,652,624 1,497,396 153,700,513 (772,489) 3,305,341 2,532,853Excl FY16 & FY17 128,164,691 128,141,718 111,084,557 123,382,754 12,298,197 7,362,372 4,935,825 134,809,625 (22,973) 6,667,907 6,644,934

SECTION II - PAID LOSS & ALAE ActualChange in Expected Actual Selected Change in Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Expected Percent Paid Change in Minus Ultimate Loss Due to Due to TotalFiscal Selected Ultimate as of 6/30/15 Actual Paid Loss & ALAE as of Paid as of 6/15 - 6/17 Paid Expected & ALAE as of Change in Change in Change SinceYears Actual Adjusted 6/30/15 6/30/17 6/30/15 6/30/17 (2b) - (2a) 6/15 - 6/17 (4) - (5) 6/30/17 Exposures Experience Prior

(1a) (1b) (2a) (2b) (3a) (3b) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8a) = (1b) - (1a) (8b) = (7) - (1b) (8c) = (8a) + (8b)

7/1/90-6/30/91 * 1,934,394 1,934,394 1,779,984 1,889,316 96.6% 96.9% 109,332 16,279 93,053 2,021,086 0 86,693 86,6937/1/91-6/30/92 1,847,884 1,847,884 1,791,752 1,815,720 96.2% 96.6% 23,968 5,809 18,159 1,860,556 0 12,672 12,6727/1/92-6/30/93 2,233,888 2,233,888 2,233,888 2,314,792 95.5% 96.0% 80,904 0 80,904 2,358,207 0 124,319 124,3197/1/93-6/30/94 2,794,882 2,794,882 2,714,289 2,777,452 95.3% 95.8% 63,163 8,066 55,097 2,803,276 0 8,394 8,3947/1/94-6/30/95 2,695,902 2,695,902 2,527,954 2,622,144 95.0% 95.5% 94,190 16,786 77,404 2,622,144 0 (73,758) (73,758)7/1/95-6/30/96 1,896,549 1,896,549 1,877,862 1,882,726 94.8% 95.3% 4,865 1,865 2,999 1,896,756 0 207 2077/1/96-6/30/97 2,242,028 2,242,028 2,220,350 2,224,216 94.5% 95.0% 3,866 2,161 1,705 2,236,511 0 (5,518) (5,518)7/1/97-6/30/98 1,950,673 1,950,673 1,934,865 1,940,346 94.2% 94.8% 5,481 1,563 3,918 1,964,616 0 13,943 13,9437/1/98-6/30/99 2,146,793 2,146,793 2,105,581 2,109,158 93.9% 94.5% 3,577 4,075 (498) 2,141,652 0 (5,141) (5,141)7/1/99-6/30/00 2,466,296 2,466,296 2,402,831 2,421,855 93.5% 94.2% 19,025 6,726 12,299 2,466,414 0 118 1187/1/00-6/30/01 3,883,465 3,883,465 3,702,464 3,723,616 93.1% 93.9% 21,152 21,629 (477) 3,856,823 0 (26,642) (26,642)7/1/01-6/30/02 3,852,207 3,852,207 3,615,996 3,759,339 92.5% 93.5% 143,343 30,609 112,735 3,989,135 0 136,928 136,9287/1/02-6/30/03 3,205,156 3,205,156 3,090,891 3,101,341 91.9% 93.1% 10,450 16,580 (6,130) 3,114,947 0 (90,209) (90,209)7/1/03-6/30/04 6,667,887 6,667,887 6,279,720 6,432,557 91.0% 92.5% 152,837 66,660 86,177 6,716,457 0 48,570 48,5707/1/04-6/30/05 8,156,167 8,156,167 7,485,948 7,918,381 89.8% 91.7% 432,433 122,086 310,348 8,350,746 0 194,579 194,5797/1/05-6/30/06 7,267,964 7,267,964 6,226,280 6,537,608 87.6% 90.3% 311,328 226,853 84,475 7,227,106 0 (40,858) (40,858)7/1/06-6/30/07 5,872,087 5,872,087 4,911,936 5,389,910 84.0% 89.2% 477,975 312,540 165,435 5,926,999 0 54,912 54,9127/1/07-6/30/08 8,232,887 8,232,887 6,443,881 7,331,429 79.3% 87.1% 887,548 675,853 211,695 8,526,874 0 293,987 293,9877/1/08-6/30/09 7,051,063 7,051,063 5,704,565 6,428,547 74.4% 83.6% 723,982 481,012 242,970 7,218,390 0 167,327 167,3277/1/09-6/30/10 5,450,158 5,450,158 4,093,209 4,798,883 69.0% 79.3% 705,674 453,599 252,075 5,916,564 0 466,407 466,4077/1/10-6/30/11 7,868,317 7,868,317 5,590,050 6,865,126 63.4% 74.4% 1,275,076 688,037 587,038 8,676,082 0 807,765 807,7657/1/11-6/30/12 6,702,846 6,702,846 5,008,772 6,053,659 57.0% 68.8% 1,044,887 463,883 581,004 7,533,906 0 831,060 831,0607/1/12-6/30/13 9,510,821 9,510,821 6,436,312 7,987,565 47.6% 62.8% 1,551,252 889,489 661,763 10,882,952 0 1,372,130 1,372,1307/1/13-6/30/14 11,827,623 11,827,623 6,941,003 10,190,978 38.5% 56.4% 3,249,975 1,420,856 1,829,120 14,770,597 0 2,942,974 2,942,9747/1/14-6/30/15 10,406,753 10,383,780 2,397,822 5,264,997 15.7% 47.4% 2,867,176 3,002,859 (135,684) 9,730,827 (22,973) (652,953) (675,926)7/1/15-6/30/16 11,187,072 11,095,116 0 3,632,216 0.0% 38.5% 3,632,216 4,273,221 (641,005) 9,456,892 (91,956) (1,638,224) (1,730,180)7/1/16-6/30/17 11,815,897 11,158,338 0 1,808,038 0.0% 15.7% 1,808,038 1,754,997 53,041 9,433,996 (657,559) (1,724,342) (2,381,901)

Total All Years 151,167,660 150,395,172 99,518,203 119,221,918 19,703,715 14,964,094 4,739,621 153,700,513 (772,489) 3,305,341 2,532,853Excl FY16 & FY17 128,164,691 128,141,718 99,518,203 113,781,664 14,263,460 8,935,876 5,327,585 134,809,625 (22,973) 6,667,907 6,644,934

Notes:Columns (1a), (2a), and (3) are from Oliver Wyman's report using data valued as of June 30, 2015.Column (1b) has been adjusted for changes in payroll from the prior analysis.Column (2b) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (5) equals [Column (1b) - Column (2a)] x [Column (3b) - Column (3a)] / [1.00 - Column (3a)].Column (7) equals Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9).* Fiscal year 1991 only includes claims with date of loss 8/1/1990 and later.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

50

Page 53: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 1Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Summary of Unpaid Loss & ALAE as of June 30, 2018

Selected Total Unpaid % Paid % Paid Expected Total UnpaidUltimate Loss Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Paid Between Loss & ALAE

Fiscal & ALAE as of as of as of as of 6/30/17 and as ofYears 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/18 6/30/18 6/30/18

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 0 99.9% 100.0% 0 07/1/05-6/30/06 515,276 6,010 99.8% 99.9% 2,752 3,2577/1/06-6/30/07 452,386 0 99.6% 99.8% 0 07/1/07-6/30/08 1,309,335 3,416 99.4% 99.6% 1,076 2,3407/1/08-6/30/09 906,683 0 99.2% 99.4% 0 07/1/09-6/30/10 958,350 8,204 98.9% 99.2% 2,207 5,9977/1/10-6/30/11 462,525 5,801 98.4% 98.9% 1,709 4,0927/1/11-6/30/12 451,286 88,135 96.5% 98.4% 48,696 39,4387/1/12-6/30/13 351,450 62,170 92.8% 96.5% 32,028 30,1437/1/13-6/30/14 535,421 79,843 87.2% 92.8% 34,765 45,0787/1/14-6/30/15 1,458,685 625,535 72.7% 87.2% 333,135 292,4007/1/15-6/30/16 1,004,069 605,857 53.9% 72.7% 247,437 358,4207/1/16-6/30/17 859,275 758,941 26.9% 53.9% 279,642 479,2987/1/17-6/30/18 1,013,659 0 0.0% 26.9% 272,932 740,728

Total 10,612,098 2,243,912 1,256,380 2,001,191

Current (Short-term) Liability (excludes FY2018)*: 983,449as a percent of 6/30/17 Liability: 44%

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9).Column (2) is from Exhibit 1, Sheet 3, Column (6).Columns (3) and (4) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheet 6.Column (5) equals Column (2) x [Column (4) - Column (3)] / [1.0 - Column (3)].Column (6) equals Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9) - Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (7) - Column (5).* Current (Short-term) liability is calculated as the expected payments during the next 12 months for accidents occurring through the current evaluation date only.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

51

Page 54: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 1Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Summary of Reported Loss & ALAE and IBNR as of June 30, 2018

Selected Total % Reported % Reported Expected TotalUltimate Loss IBNR Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Rpt Between IBNR

Fiscal & ALAE as of as of as of as of 6/30/17 and as ofYears 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/18 6/30/18 6/30/18

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 0 100.0% 100.0% 0 07/1/05-6/30/06 515,276 2,005 99.9% 100.0% 2,005 07/1/06-6/30/07 452,386 0 99.8% 99.9% 0 07/1/07-6/30/08 1,309,335 2,416 99.7% 99.8% 916 1,5017/1/08-6/30/09 906,683 0 99.6% 99.7% 0 07/1/09-6/30/10 958,350 5,539 99.4% 99.6% 1,524 4,0147/1/10-6/30/11 462,525 5,233 99.2% 99.4% 1,544 3,6897/1/11-6/30/12 451,286 33,135 98.2% 99.2% 18,057 15,0787/1/12-6/30/13 351,450 32,162 96.3% 98.2% 16,614 15,5487/1/13-6/30/14 535,421 40,863 93.5% 96.3% 17,543 23,3207/1/14-6/30/15 1,458,685 251,172 77.9% 93.5% 176,972 74,1997/1/15-6/30/16 1,004,069 365,947 60.9% 77.9% 159,272 206,6757/1/16-6/30/17 859,275 614,779 33.8% 60.9% 251,187 363,5937/1/17-6/30/18 1,013,659 0 0.0% 33.8% 342,684 670,975

Total 10,612,098 1,353,251 988,319 1,378,592

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9).Column (2) is from Exhibit 1, Sheet 3, Column (5).Columns (3) and (4) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheet 5.Column (5) equals Column (2) x [Column (4) - Column (3)] / [1.0 - Column (3)].Column (6) equals Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9) - Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (6) - Column (5).

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

52

Page 55: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 1Sheet 3

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Summary of Reserves as of June 30, 2017

Reported Paid Case IBNR Total UnpaidSelected Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Reserves Reserves Loss & ALAE

Fiscal Ultimate as of as of as of as of as ofYears Loss & ALAE 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/17

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 333,698 333,698 0 0 07/1/05-6/30/06 515,276 513,271 509,266 4,005 2,005 6,0107/1/06-6/30/07 452,386 452,386 452,386 0 0 07/1/07-6/30/08 1,309,335 1,306,918 1,305,918 1,000 2,416 3,4167/1/08-6/30/09 906,683 906,683 906,683 0 0 07/1/09-6/30/10 958,350 952,811 950,146 2,665 5,539 8,2047/1/10-6/30/11 462,525 457,292 456,725 568 5,233 5,8017/1/11-6/30/12 451,286 418,152 363,152 55,000 33,135 88,1357/1/12-6/30/13 351,450 319,288 289,280 30,008 32,162 62,1707/1/13-6/30/14 535,421 494,557 455,578 38,980 40,863 79,8437/1/14-6/30/15 1,458,685 1,207,513 833,150 374,364 251,172 625,5357/1/15-6/30/16 1,004,069 638,122 398,212 239,910 365,947 605,8577/1/16-6/30/17 859,275 244,496 100,335 144,161 614,779 758,941

Total 9,598,439 8,245,188 7,354,527 890,660 1,353,251 2,243,912

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9).Columns (2) and (3) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (4) equals Column (2) - Column (3).Column (5) equals Column (1) - Column (2).Column (6) equals Column (4) + Column (5).

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

53

Page 56: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 1Sheet 4

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Estimate of Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Reported Paid Reported Paid Reported Paid Implied OpenLoss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Bornhuetter- Bornhuetter- Case Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Implied Open and IBNR Selected Implied

Fiscal Development Development Ferguson Ferguson Development as of as of and IBNR Claim Counts Ultimate Loss & ALAEYears Method Method Method Method Method 6/30/17 6/30/17 Claim Counts within Retention Loss & ALAE Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8a) (8b) (9) (10)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 334,132 333,698 334,549 333,698 333,698 333,698 0 0 333,698 0.3517/1/05-6/30/06 513,681 510,489 513,817 510,903 515,276 513,271 509,266 1 1 515,276 0.5237/1/06-6/30/07 453,200 454,152 453,752 455,343 452,386 452,386 452,386 0 0 452,386 0.4167/1/07-6/30/08 1,310,712 1,313,378 1,309,242 1,310,477 1,307,958 1,306,918 1,305,918 1 1 1,309,335 1.1487/1/08-6/30/09 910,497 914,051 910,063 913,186 906,683 906,683 906,683 0 0 906,683 0.7977/1/09-6/30/10 958,350 960,741 957,515 959,121 955,746 952,811 950,146 2 2 958,350 0.8417/1/10-6/30/11 461,073 463,978 463,935 469,389 457,919 457,292 456,725 2 2 462,525 0.4117/1/11-6/30/12 425,825 376,297 432,916 391,775 476,747 418,152 363,152 1 1 451,286 0.3997/1/12-6/30/13 331,650 311,741 351,135 350,840 351,450 319,288 289,280 4 4 351,450 0.3007/1/13-6/30/14 529,116 522,223 551,160 566,174 535,421 494,557 455,578 7 7 535,421 0.4557/1/14-6/30/15 1,550,271 1,146,034 1,397,516 1,067,771 2,801,712 1,207,513 833,150 4 4 1,458,685 1.2597/1/15-6/30/16 1,048,647 739,473 1,004,069 829,604 1,979,613 638,122 398,212 11 11 1,004,069 0.8027/1/16-6/30/17 723,220 372,640 897,418 821,132 1,631,241 244,496 100,335 16 16 859,275 0.656

Total 9,549,941 8,419,329 9,576,236 8,980,263 12,705,850 8,245,188 7,354,527 49 49 9,598,439

7/1/17-6/30/18 1,013,659 0.758

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 2, Sheet 1, Column (3).Column (2) is from Exhibit 2, Sheet 3, Column (3).Column (3) is from Exhibit 2, Sheet 5, Column (5).Column (4) is from Exhibit 2, Sheet 6, Column (5).Column (5) is from Exhibit 2, Sheet 7, Column (6).Columns (6) and (7) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (8a) is from Exhibit 4, Sheet 1, Column (6).Column (8b) based on Column (8a) and individual claim detail.Column (9) based on Columns (1) through (8b) and actuarial judgment. Fiscal year 7/1/17-6/30/18 is from Exhibit 3, Sheet 1, Column (5).Column (10) equals Column (9) / Revenue (000's).

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

54

Page 57: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Reported Loss & ALAE Development Method

Reported IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE CostYears Retention 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Revenue (000's) (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 2,000,000 333,698 1.000 333,698 951,817 0.3517/1/05-6/30/06 2,000,000 513,271 1.001 513,681 985,307 0.5217/1/06-6/30/07 2,000,000 452,386 1.002 453,200 1,088,153 0.4167/1/07-6/30/08 2,000,000 1,306,918 1.003 1,310,712 1,140,564 1.1497/1/08-6/30/09 2,000,000 906,683 1.004 910,497 1,137,964 0.8007/1/09-6/30/10 2,000,000 952,811 1.006 958,350 1,139,279 0.8417/1/10-6/30/11 2,000,000 457,292 1.008 461,073 1,125,705 0.4107/1/11-6/30/12 2,000,000 418,152 1.018 425,825 1,130,045 0.3777/1/12-6/30/13 2,000,000 319,288 1.039 331,650 1,169,584 0.2847/1/13-6/30/14 2,000,000 494,557 1.070 529,116 1,177,491 0.4497/1/14-6/30/15 2,000,000 1,207,513 1.284 1,550,271 1,158,945 1.3387/1/15-6/30/16 2,000,000 638,122 1.643 1,048,647 1,251,253 0.8387/1/16-6/30/17 2,000,000 244,496 2.958 723,220 1,310,506 0.552

Total 8,245,188 9,549,941 14,766,612

Notes:Columns (1) and (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheet 5.

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

55

Page 58: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Reported Loss & ALAE Development Method

Section I - Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Reported Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Revenue (000's) (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 1.000 333,698 951,817 0.3517/1/05-6/30/06 513,271 1.000 513,271 985,307 0.5217/1/06-6/30/07 452,386 1.000 452,386 1,088,153 0.4167/1/07-6/30/08 618,275 1.000 618,275 1,140,564 0.5427/1/08-6/30/09 661,147 1.001 661,478 1,137,964 0.5817/1/09-6/30/10 740,985 1.001 741,875 1,139,279 0.6517/1/10-6/30/11 457,292 1.003 458,620 1,125,705 0.4077/1/11-6/30/12 418,152 1.007 421,168 1,130,045 0.3737/1/12-6/30/13 319,288 1.016 324,325 1,169,584 0.2777/1/13-6/30/14 494,557 1.031 509,743 1,177,491 0.4337/1/14-6/30/15 607,513 1.134 688,784 1,158,945 0.5947/1/15-6/30/16 638,122 1.361 868,184 1,251,253 0.6947/1/16-6/30/17 244,496 2.299 562,169 1,310,506 0.429

Total 6,499,183 7,153,976 14,766,612

Section II - Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,000,000

Reported Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Revenue (000's) (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 1.000 333,698 951,817 0.3517/1/05-6/30/06 513,271 1.000 513,271 985,307 0.5217/1/06-6/30/07 452,386 1.000 452,386 1,088,153 0.4167/1/07-6/30/08 1,306,918 1.001 1,307,572 1,140,564 1.1467/1/08-6/30/09 906,683 1.001 907,862 1,137,964 0.7987/1/09-6/30/10 952,811 1.002 954,909 1,139,279 0.8387/1/10-6/30/11 457,292 1.005 459,353 1,125,705 0.4087/1/11-6/30/12 418,152 1.011 422,892 1,130,045 0.3747/1/12-6/30/13 319,288 1.025 327,213 1,169,584 0.2807/1/13-6/30/14 494,557 1.050 519,503 1,177,491 0.4417/1/14-6/30/15 1,207,513 1.208 1,458,685 1,158,945 1.2597/1/15-6/30/16 638,122 1.510 963,570 1,251,253 0.7707/1/16-6/30/17 244,496 2.552 623,934 1,310,506 0.476

Total 8,245,188 9,244,847 14,766,612

Section III - Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $2,000,000

Reported Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Revenue (000's) (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 1.000 333,698 951,817 0.3517/1/05-6/30/06 513,271 1.001 513,681 985,307 0.5217/1/06-6/30/07 452,386 1.002 453,200 1,088,153 0.4167/1/07-6/30/08 1,306,918 1.003 1,310,712 1,140,564 1.1497/1/08-6/30/09 906,683 1.004 910,497 1,137,964 0.8007/1/09-6/30/10 952,811 1.006 958,350 1,139,279 0.8417/1/10-6/30/11 457,292 1.008 461,073 1,125,705 0.4107/1/11-6/30/12 418,152 1.018 425,825 1,130,045 0.3777/1/12-6/30/13 319,288 1.039 331,650 1,169,584 0.2847/1/13-6/30/14 494,557 1.070 529,116 1,177,491 0.4497/1/14-6/30/15 1,207,513 1.284 1,550,271 1,158,945 1.3387/1/15-6/30/16 638,122 1.643 1,048,647 1,251,253 0.8387/1/16-6/30/17 244,496 2.958 723,220 1,310,506 0.552

Total 8,245,188 9,549,941 14,766,612

Notes:Columns (1) and (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheets 1, 3, and 5.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

56

Page 59: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 3

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Paid Loss & ALAE Development Method

Paid IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE CostYears Retention 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Revenue (000's) (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 2,000,000 333,698 1.001 334,132 951,817 0.3517/1/05-6/30/06 2,000,000 509,266 1.002 510,489 985,307 0.5187/1/06-6/30/07 2,000,000 452,386 1.004 454,152 1,088,153 0.4177/1/07-6/30/08 2,000,000 1,305,918 1.006 1,313,378 1,140,564 1.1527/1/08-6/30/09 2,000,000 906,683 1.008 914,051 1,137,964 0.8037/1/09-6/30/10 2,000,000 950,146 1.011 960,741 1,139,279 0.8437/1/10-6/30/11 2,000,000 456,725 1.016 463,978 1,125,705 0.4127/1/11-6/30/12 2,000,000 363,152 1.036 376,297 1,130,045 0.3337/1/12-6/30/13 2,000,000 289,280 1.078 311,741 1,169,584 0.2677/1/13-6/30/14 2,000,000 455,578 1.146 522,223 1,177,491 0.4447/1/14-6/30/15 2,000,000 833,150 1.376 1,146,034 1,158,945 0.9897/1/15-6/30/16 2,000,000 398,212 1.857 739,473 1,251,253 0.5917/1/16-6/30/17 2,000,000 100,335 3.714 372,640 1,310,506 0.284

Total 7,354,527 8,419,329 14,766,612

Notes:Columns (1) and (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheet 6.

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

57

Page 60: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 4

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Paid Loss & ALAE Development Method

Section I - Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Paid Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Revenue (000's) (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 1.000 333,698 951,817 0.3517/1/05-6/30/06 509,266 1.000 509,266 985,307 0.5177/1/06-6/30/07 452,386 1.000 452,386 1,088,153 0.4167/1/07-6/30/08 617,275 1.001 617,584 1,140,564 0.5417/1/08-6/30/09 661,147 1.002 662,139 1,137,964 0.5827/1/09-6/30/10 738,320 1.003 740,463 1,139,279 0.6507/1/10-6/30/11 456,725 1.007 459,883 1,125,705 0.4097/1/11-6/30/12 363,152 1.017 369,319 1,130,045 0.3277/1/12-6/30/13 289,280 1.037 300,077 1,169,584 0.2577/1/13-6/30/14 455,578 1.079 491,484 1,177,491 0.4177/1/14-6/30/15 542,080 1.187 643,285 1,158,945 0.5557/1/15-6/30/16 398,212 1.483 590,696 1,251,253 0.4727/1/16-6/30/17 100,335 2.640 264,924 1,310,506 0.202

Total 5,917,454 6,435,205 14,766,612

Section II - Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,000,000

Paid Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Revenue (000's) (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 1.000 333,698 951,817 0.3517/1/05-6/30/06 509,266 1.000 509,266 985,307 0.5177/1/06-6/30/07 452,386 1.001 452,612 1,088,153 0.4167/1/07-6/30/08 1,305,918 1.002 1,307,878 1,140,564 1.1477/1/08-6/30/09 906,683 1.003 909,315 1,137,964 0.7997/1/09-6/30/10 950,146 1.005 954,810 1,139,279 0.8387/1/10-6/30/11 456,725 1.010 461,261 1,125,705 0.4107/1/11-6/30/12 363,152 1.025 372,260 1,130,045 0.3297/1/12-6/30/13 289,280 1.056 305,432 1,169,584 0.2617/1/13-6/30/14 455,578 1.109 505,065 1,177,491 0.4297/1/14-6/30/15 833,150 1.330 1,108,382 1,158,945 0.9567/1/15-6/30/16 398,212 1.729 688,690 1,251,253 0.5507/1/16-6/30/17 100,335 3.286 329,696 1,310,506 0.252

Total 7,354,527 8,238,365 14,766,612

Section III - Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $2,000,000

Paid Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Revenue (000's) (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 1.001 334,132 951,817 0.3517/1/05-6/30/06 509,266 1.002 510,489 985,307 0.5187/1/06-6/30/07 452,386 1.004 454,152 1,088,153 0.4177/1/07-6/30/08 1,305,918 1.006 1,313,378 1,140,564 1.1527/1/08-6/30/09 906,683 1.008 914,051 1,137,964 0.8037/1/09-6/30/10 950,146 1.011 960,741 1,139,279 0.8437/1/10-6/30/11 456,725 1.016 463,978 1,125,705 0.4127/1/11-6/30/12 363,152 1.036 376,297 1,130,045 0.3337/1/12-6/30/13 289,280 1.078 311,741 1,169,584 0.2677/1/13-6/30/14 455,578 1.146 522,223 1,177,491 0.4447/1/14-6/30/15 833,150 1.376 1,146,034 1,158,945 0.9897/1/15-6/30/16 398,212 1.857 739,473 1,251,253 0.5917/1/16-6/30/17 100,335 3.714 372,640 1,310,506 0.284

Total 7,354,527 8,419,329 14,766,612

Notes:Columns (1) and (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheets 2, 4, and 6.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

58

Page 61: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 5

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Reported Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method

Expected Reported EstimatedEstimate Age to Loss & ALAE Ultimate Indicated

Fiscal of Ultimate Ultimate Unreported as of Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAEYears Loss & ALAE Factors Loss & ALAE 6/30/17 (3) + (4) Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

7/1/04-6/30/05 654,969 1.000 0 333,698 333,698 0.3517/1/05-6/30/06 683,099 1.001 546 513,271 513,817 0.5217/1/06-6/30/07 760,058 1.002 1,366 452,386 453,752 0.4177/1/07-6/30/08 802,642 1.003 2,323 1,306,918 1,309,242 1.1487/1/08-6/30/09 806,818 1.004 3,380 906,683 910,063 0.8007/1/09-6/30/10 813,809 1.006 4,704 952,811 957,515 0.8407/1/10-6/30/11 810,143 1.008 6,643 457,292 463,935 0.4127/1/11-6/30/12 819,367 1.018 14,765 418,152 432,916 0.3837/1/12-6/30/13 854,395 1.039 31,847 319,288 351,135 0.3007/1/13-6/30/14 866,623 1.070 56,603 494,557 551,160 0.4687/1/14-6/30/15 859,371 1.284 190,003 1,207,513 1,397,516 1.2067/1/15-6/30/16 934,776 1.643 365,947 638,122 1,004,069 0.8027/1/16-6/30/17 986,386 2.958 652,922 244,496 897,418 0.685

Total 10,652,456 1,331,048 8,245,188 9,576,236

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 3, Sheet 1, Column (5).The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheet 5.Column (3) equals Column (1) x [1.0 - 1.0 / Column (2)].Column (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (6) equals Column (5) / Revenue (000's).

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

59

Page 62: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 6

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Paid Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method

Expected Paid EstimatedEstimate Age to Loss & ALAE Ultimate Indicated

Fiscal of Ultimate Ultimate Unpaid as of Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAEYears Loss & ALAE Factors Loss & ALAE 6/30/17 (3) + (4) Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

7/1/04-6/30/05 654,969 1.001 851 333,698 334,549 0.3517/1/05-6/30/06 683,099 1.002 1,637 509,266 510,903 0.5197/1/06-6/30/07 760,058 1.004 2,957 452,386 455,343 0.4187/1/07-6/30/08 802,642 1.006 4,559 1,305,918 1,310,477 1.1497/1/08-6/30/09 806,818 1.008 6,503 906,683 913,186 0.8027/1/09-6/30/10 813,809 1.011 8,974 950,146 959,121 0.8427/1/10-6/30/11 810,143 1.016 12,664 456,725 469,389 0.4177/1/11-6/30/12 819,367 1.036 28,623 363,152 391,775 0.3477/1/12-6/30/13 854,395 1.078 61,560 289,280 350,840 0.3007/1/13-6/30/14 866,623 1.146 110,597 455,578 566,174 0.4817/1/14-6/30/15 859,371 1.376 234,621 833,150 1,067,771 0.9217/1/15-6/30/16 934,776 1.857 431,392 398,212 829,604 0.6637/1/16-6/30/17 986,386 3.714 720,798 100,335 821,132 0.627

Total 10,652,456 1,625,736 7,354,527 8,980,263

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 3, Sheet 1, Column (5).The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheet 6.Column (3) equals Column (1) x [1.0 - 1.0 / Column (2)].Column (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (6) equals Column (5) / Revenue (000's).

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

60

Page 63: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 7

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Case Development Method

CasePaid Outstanding Percent Percent Incurred

Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE of Ultimate of Ultimate But Not Estimated IndicatedFiscal as of as of Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Reported Ultimate Loss & ALAEYears 6/30/17 6/30/17 Reported Paid Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 0 100.0% 99.9% 0 333,698 0.3517/1/05-6/30/06 509,266 4,005 99.9% 99.8% 2,005 515,276 0.5237/1/06-6/30/07 452,386 0 99.8% 99.6% 0 452,386 0.4167/1/07-6/30/08 1,305,918 1,000 99.7% 99.4% 1,039 1,307,958 1.1477/1/08-6/30/09 906,683 0 99.6% 99.2% 0 906,683 0.7977/1/09-6/30/10 950,146 2,665 99.4% 98.9% 2,935 955,746 0.8397/1/10-6/30/11 456,725 568 99.2% 98.4% 626 457,919 0.4077/1/11-6/30/12 363,152 55,000 98.2% 96.5% 58,596 476,747 0.4227/1/12-6/30/13 289,280 30,008 96.3% 92.8% 32,162 351,450 0.3007/1/13-6/30/14 455,578 38,980 93.5% 87.2% 40,863 535,421 0.4557/1/14-6/30/15 833,150 374,364 77.9% 72.7% 1,594,199 2,801,712 2.4177/1/15-6/30/16 398,212 239,910 60.9% 53.9% 1,341,491 1,979,613 1.5827/1/16-6/30/17 100,335 144,161 33.8% 26.9% 1,386,745 1,631,241 1.245

Total 7,354,527 890,660 4,460,662 12,705,850

Notes:Columns (1) and (2) provided by City of Virginia Beach.The factors in Column (3) equal 1.0 / Exhibit 2, Sheet 1, Column (2).The factors in Column (4) equal 1.0 / Exhibit 2, Sheet 3, Column (2).Column (5) equals Column (2) x [1.0 - Column (3)] / [Column (3) - Column (4)].Column (6) equals Column (1) + Column (2) + Column (5).Column (7) equals Column (6) / Revenue (000's).

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

61

Page 64: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss Cost Method Summary

Smoothed Smoothed SmoothedSelected Selected Retained Estimated

Fiscal Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE UltimateYears Cost @ $1,000,000 Cost @ $2,000,000 Cost Revenue (000's) Loss & ALAE

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 0.644 0.688 0.688 951,817 654,9697/1/05-6/30/06 0.647 0.693 0.693 985,307 683,0997/1/06-6/30/07 0.651 0.698 0.698 1,088,153 760,0587/1/07-6/30/08 0.654 0.704 0.704 1,140,564 802,6427/1/08-6/30/09 0.657 0.709 0.709 1,137,964 806,8187/1/09-6/30/10 0.661 0.714 0.714 1,139,279 813,8097/1/10-6/30/11 0.664 0.720 0.720 1,125,705 810,1437/1/11-6/30/12 0.667 0.725 0.725 1,130,045 819,3677/1/12-6/30/13 0.670 0.731 0.731 1,169,584 854,3957/1/13-6/30/14 0.674 0.736 0.736 1,177,491 866,6237/1/14-6/30/15 0.677 0.742 0.742 1,158,945 859,3717/1/15-6/30/16 0.681 0.747 0.747 1,251,253 934,7767/1/16-6/30/17 0.684 0.753 0.753 1,310,506 986,386

Total 14,766,612 10,652,456

7/1/17-6/30/18 at retention $2,000,000 0.758 1,336,716 1,013,659

SELECTED LOSS & ALAE COST AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Selected loss cost - Limited to $250,000 (from Exhibit 3, Sheet 2) 0.515

Indicated loss cost - Limited to $1,000,000 (from Exhibit 3, Sheet 3) 0.727Increased limits factor from $250K to $1M * 1.243 Indicated lost cost - Limited to $1,000,000 using industry $250K to $1M ILF 0.640Selected lost cost - Limited to $1,000,000 0.684

Indicated loss cost - Limited to $2,000,000 (from Exhibit 3, Sheet 4) 0.745Increased limits factor from $1M to $2M * 1.100 Indicated lost cost - Limited to $2,000,000 using industry $1M to $2M ILF 0.753Selected lost cost - Limited to $2,000,000 0.753

Notes:Columns (1) and (2) are the selected fiscal year 7/1/16-6/30/17 loss costs, detrended at annual rates of 0.50% and 0.75% at retentions $1M and $2M, respectively.Column (3) is the selected fiscal year loss cost at the respective historical retention.Column (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (5) equals Column (3) x Column (4).* Increased limits factors based on industry information.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

62

Page 65: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss Cost Method, Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Initial AdjustmentEstimated to FY2017 Adjustment Adjusted Trended

Fiscal Ultimate Benefit to FY2017 Revenue (000's) Indicated to FY2017Years Loss & ALAE Level Revenue (000's) Exposure (3) x (4) Loss Cost Loss Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 1.000 951,817 1.000 951,817 0.351 0.3517/1/05-6/30/06 515,276 1.000 985,307 1.000 985,307 0.523 0.5237/1/06-6/30/07 452,386 1.000 1,088,153 1.000 1,088,153 0.416 0.4167/1/07-6/30/08 620,692 1.000 1,140,564 1.000 1,140,564 0.544 0.5447/1/08-6/30/09 661,147 1.000 1,137,964 1.000 1,137,964 0.581 0.5817/1/09-6/30/10 746,524 1.000 1,139,279 1.000 1,139,279 0.655 0.6557/1/10-6/30/11 462,525 1.000 1,125,705 1.000 1,125,705 0.411 0.4117/1/11-6/30/12 440,316 1.000 1,130,045 1.000 1,130,045 0.390 0.3907/1/12-6/30/13 351,450 1.000 1,169,584 1.000 1,169,584 0.300 0.3007/1/13-6/30/14 535,421 1.000 1,177,491 1.000 1,177,491 0.455 0.4557/1/14-6/30/15 688,784 1.000 1,158,945 1.000 1,158,945 0.594 0.5947/1/15-6/30/16 868,184 1.000 1,251,253 1.000 1,251,253 0.694 0.6947/1/16-6/30/17 562,169 1.000 1,310,506 1.000 1,310,506 0.429 0.429

Total 7,238,573 14,766,612 14,766,612

AVERAGES AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/04-6/30/05 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 0.496Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/07-6/30/08 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 0.515Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/10-6/30/11 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 0.477Selected 7/1/16-6/30/17 loss & ALAE cost: 0.515

Notes:Column (1) based on the reported and paid development methods from Exhibit 2, Sheet 2, Column (3)

and Exhibit 2, Sheet 4, Column (3), respectively, and actuarial judgement.Column (2) not used for this line of business.Column (3) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (4) not used in this study.Column (6) equals Column (1) x Column (2) / Column (5).Column (7) equals Column (6) x the selected loss cost trend of 0.00%.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

63

Page 66: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 3

Initial AdjustmentEstimated to FY2017 Adjustment Adjusted Trended

Fiscal Ultimate Benefit to FY2017 Revenue (000's) Indicated to FY2017Years Loss & ALAE Level Revenue (000's) Exposure (3) x (4) Loss Cost Loss Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 1.000 951,817 1.000 951,817 0.351 0.3727/1/05-6/30/06 515,276 1.000 985,307 1.000 985,307 0.523 0.5527/1/06-6/30/07 452,386 1.000 1,088,153 1.000 1,088,153 0.416 0.4377/1/07-6/30/08 1,309,335 1.000 1,140,564 1.000 1,140,564 1.148 1.2017/1/08-6/30/09 906,683 1.000 1,137,964 1.000 1,137,964 0.797 0.8297/1/09-6/30/10 958,350 1.000 1,139,279 1.000 1,139,279 0.841 0.8717/1/10-6/30/11 462,525 1.000 1,125,705 1.000 1,125,705 0.411 0.4237/1/11-6/30/12 451,286 1.000 1,130,045 1.000 1,130,045 0.399 0.4097/1/12-6/30/13 351,450 1.000 1,169,584 1.000 1,169,584 0.300 0.3077/1/13-6/30/14 535,421 1.000 1,177,491 1.000 1,177,491 0.455 0.4627/1/14-6/30/15 1,458,685 1.000 1,158,945 1.000 1,158,945 1.259 1.2717/1/15-6/30/16 963,570 1.000 1,251,253 1.000 1,251,253 0.770 0.7747/1/16-6/30/17 623,934 1.000 1,310,506 1.000 1,310,506 0.476 0.476

Total 9,322,598 14,766,612 14,766,612

AVERAGES AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/04-6/30/05 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 0.666Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/07-6/30/08 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 0.727Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/10-6/30/11 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 0.611Indicated 7/1/16-6/30/17 loss & ALAE cost: 0.727

Notes:Column (1) based on the reported and paid development methods from Exhibit 2, Sheet 2, Column (3)

and Exhibit 2, Sheet 4, Column (3), respectively, and actuarial judgement.Column (2) not used for this line of business.Column (3) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (4) not used in this study.Column (6) equals Column (1) x Column (2) / Column (5).Column (7) equals Column (6) x the selected loss cost trend of 0.50%.

Loss Cost Method, Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,000,000

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

64

Page 67: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 4

Initial AdjustmentEstimated to FY2017 Adjustment Adjusted Trended

Fiscal Ultimate Benefit to FY2017 Revenue (000's) Indicated to FY2017Years Loss & ALAE Level Revenue (000's) Exposure (3) x (4) Loss Cost Loss Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 1.000 951,817 1.000 951,817 0.351 0.3837/1/05-6/30/06 515,276 1.000 985,307 1.000 985,307 0.523 0.5687/1/06-6/30/07 452,386 1.000 1,088,153 1.000 1,088,153 0.416 0.4487/1/07-6/30/08 1,309,335 1.000 1,140,564 1.000 1,140,564 1.148 1.2287/1/08-6/30/09 906,683 1.000 1,137,964 1.000 1,137,964 0.797 0.8467/1/09-6/30/10 958,350 1.000 1,139,279 1.000 1,139,279 0.841 0.8867/1/10-6/30/11 462,525 1.000 1,125,705 1.000 1,125,705 0.411 0.4307/1/11-6/30/12 451,286 1.000 1,130,045 1.000 1,130,045 0.399 0.4157/1/12-6/30/13 351,450 1.000 1,169,584 1.000 1,169,584 0.300 0.3107/1/13-6/30/14 535,421 1.000 1,177,491 1.000 1,177,491 0.455 0.4657/1/14-6/30/15 1,458,685 1.000 1,158,945 1.000 1,158,945 1.259 1.2787/1/15-6/30/16 1,048,647 1.000 1,251,253 1.000 1,251,253 0.838 0.8447/1/16-6/30/17 723,220 1.000 1,310,506 1.000 1,310,506 0.552 0.552

Total 9,506,962 14,766,612 14,766,612

AVERAGES AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/04-6/30/05 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 0.682Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/07-6/30/08 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 0.745Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/10-6/30/11 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 0.627Indicated 7/1/16-6/30/17 loss & ALAE cost: 0.745

Notes:Column (1) based on the reported and paid development methods from Exhibit 2, Sheet 2, Column (3)

and Exhibit 2, Sheet 4, Column (3), respectively, and actuarial judgement.Column (2) not used for this line of business.Column (3) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (4) not used in this study.Column (6) equals Column (1) x Column (2) / Column (5).Column (7) equals Column (6) x the selected loss cost trend of 0.75%.

Loss Cost Method, Loss & ALAE Limited to $2,000,000

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

65

Page 68: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 5

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Average Severity Method

Initial Adjustment Trended EstimatedEstimated to FY2017 Selected Indicated to FY2017 Ultimate Indicated

Fiscal Ultimate Benefit Ultimate Average Average Fitted Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAEYears Loss & ALAE Level Claim Counts Severity Severity Severity (3) x (6) Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 1.000 210 1,589 2,266 3,124 656,107 0.6897/1/05-6/30/06 515,276 1.000 178 2,895 4,007 3,218 572,812 0.5817/1/06-6/30/07 452,386 1.000 189 2,394 3,217 3,315 626,457 0.5767/1/07-6/30/08 620,692 1.000 146 4,251 5,547 3,414 498,448 0.4377/1/08-6/30/09 661,147 1.000 161 4,107 5,202 3,516 566,148 0.4987/1/09-6/30/10 746,524 1.000 171 4,366 5,369 3,622 619,352 0.5447/1/10-6/30/11 462,525 1.000 186 2,487 2,969 3,731 693,891 0.6167/1/11-6/30/12 440,316 1.000 143 3,079 3,570 3,843 549,480 0.4867/1/12-6/30/13 351,450 1.000 143 2,464 2,773 3,958 564,490 0.4837/1/13-6/30/14 535,421 1.000 164 3,269 3,572 4,077 667,692 0.5677/1/14-6/30/15 688,784 1.000 147 4,678 4,963 4,199 618,205 0.5337/1/15-6/30/16 868,184 1.000 139 6,256 6,443 4,325 600,221 0.4807/1/16-6/30/17 562,169 1.000 111 5,045 5,045 4,455 496,357 0.379

Total 7,238,573 2,088 7,729,660

AVERAGES AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/04-6/30/05 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 4,063Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/07-6/30/08 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 4,455Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/11-6/30/12 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 4,237Selected 7/1/16-6/30/17 severity: 4,455

Notes:Column (1) based on the reported and paid development methods from Exhibit 2, Sheet 2, Column (3)

and Exhibit 2, Sheet 4, Column (3), respectively, and actuarial judgment.Column (2) not used for this line of business.Column (3) is from Exhibit 4, Sheet 1, Column (3).Column (4) equals Column (1) x Column (2) / Column (3).Column (5) equals Column (4) x the selected severity trend of 3.00%.Column (6) for all fiscal years is the selected fiscal year 7/1/16-6/30/17 severity,

detrended at an annual rate of 3.00%, and adjusted to the appropriate benefit level (if applicable).Column (8) equals Column (7) / Revenue (000's).

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

66

Page 69: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 6

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

FREQUENCY TREND

SEVERITY TREND

LOSS COST TREND

Notes:The selected frequency trend is -3.00%.The selected severity trend is 3.00%.The selected loss cost trend is 0.00%.The severity and loss cost trends (for both Indicated and Fitted lines) are shown at a $250,000 per occurrence limit.*The indicated line graphs are light gray for accident periods that are not yet mature enough to be reliable.

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

FREQ

UEN

CY

FREQUENCY TREND

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SEVER

ITY

SEVERITY TREND

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

LOSS COST

FISCAL YEAR ENDINGIndicated Fitted

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

67

Page 70: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 4Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Estimate of Ultimate Claim Counts

Reported Reported Closed Implied OpenClaim Bornhuetter- Selected Claim Counts and IBNR

Fiscal Development Ferguson Ultimate Implied as of Claim CountsYears Method Method Claim Counts Frequency 6/30/17 (3) - (5)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

7/1/04-6/30/05 210 210 210 0.221 210 07/1/05-6/30/06 178 178 178 0.181 177 17/1/06-6/30/07 189 189 189 0.174 189 07/1/07-6/30/08 146 146 146 0.128 145 17/1/08-6/30/09 161 161 161 0.141 161 07/1/09-6/30/10 171 171 171 0.150 169 27/1/10-6/30/11 186 186 186 0.165 184 27/1/11-6/30/12 143 143 143 0.127 142 17/1/12-6/30/13 143 143 143 0.122 139 47/1/13-6/30/14 164 164 164 0.139 157 77/1/14-6/30/15 147 147 147 0.127 143 47/1/15-6/30/16 139 138 139 0.111 128 117/1/16-6/30/17 117 110 111 0.085 95 16

Total 2,093 2,086 2,088 0.141 2,039 49

Notes:Columns (1) and (2) are from Exhibit 4, Sheet 2, Columns (3) and (8), respectively.Column (3) based on Columns (1) and (2) and actuarial judgment.Column (4) equals Column (3) / Revenue (000's) x 1,000.Column (5) provided by City of Virginia Beach.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

68

Page 71: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 4Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Reported Claim Methods, excluding Claims Closed without Payment

Reported Estimated Trended ReportedClaim Counts Age to Ultimate Indicated to FY2017 Bornhuetter-

Fiscal as of Ultimate Claim Counts Frequency Frequency Fitted FergusonYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Revenue (000's) (3) / (4) x 1,000 (5) x trend Frequency Method

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

7/1/04-6/30/05 210 1.000 210 951,817 0.221 0.153 0.166 2107/1/05-6/30/06 178 1.000 178 985,307 0.181 0.129 0.161 1787/1/06-6/30/07 189 1.000 189 1,088,153 0.174 0.128 0.156 1897/1/07-6/30/08 146 1.000 146 1,140,564 0.128 0.097 0.152 1467/1/08-6/30/09 161 1.000 161 1,137,964 0.141 0.111 0.147 1617/1/09-6/30/10 171 1.000 171 1,139,279 0.150 0.121 0.143 1717/1/10-6/30/11 186 1.000 186 1,125,705 0.165 0.138 0.139 1867/1/11-6/30/12 143 1.000 143 1,130,045 0.127 0.109 0.134 1437/1/12-6/30/13 143 0.997 143 1,169,584 0.122 0.108 0.130 1437/1/13-6/30/14 165 0.993 164 1,177,491 0.139 0.127 0.126 1647/1/14-6/30/15 150 0.982 147 1,158,945 0.127 0.120 0.123 1477/1/15-6/30/16 144 0.964 139 1,251,253 0.111 0.108 0.119 1387/1/16-6/30/17 140 0.833 117 1,310,506 0.089 0.089 0.115 110

Total 2,126 2,093 14,766,612 2,086

AVERAGES AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/04-6/30/05 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 0.120Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/07-6/30/08 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 0.115Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/12-6/30/13 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 0.115Selected 7/1/16-6/30/17 frequency: 0.115

Notes:Columns (1) and (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are derived from Exhibit 6, Sheet 7.The selected frequency trend used in Column (6) is -3.00%.Column (7) for all fiscal years is the selected fiscal year 7/1/16-6/30/17 frequency, detrended at an annual rate of -3.00%.Column (8) equals Column (1) + Column (4) x Column (7) x [1.0 - 1.0 / Column (2)] / 1,000].

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

69

Page 72: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 5Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Summary of Loss Data Valued as of June 30, 2017

Reported* Open Unlimited Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Excess of $250K Loss & ALAE Excess of $1M Loss & ALAE Excess of $2MFiscal Claim Claim CaseYears Retention Counts Counts Paid Reserves Reported Paid Reported Paid Reported Paid Reported

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)

7/1/04-6/30/05 2,000,000 210 0 333,698 0 333,698 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/05-6/30/06 2,000,000 178 1 509,266 4,005 513,271 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/06-6/30/07 2,000,000 189 0 452,386 0 452,386 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/07-6/30/08 2,000,000 146 1 1,305,918 1,000 1,306,918 688,643 688,643 0 0 0 07/1/08-6/30/09 2,000,000 161 0 906,683 0 906,683 245,535 245,535 0 0 0 07/1/09-6/30/10 2,000,000 171 2 950,146 2,665 952,811 211,826 211,826 0 0 0 07/1/10-6/30/11 2,000,000 186 2 456,725 568 457,292 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/11-6/30/12 2,000,000 143 1 363,152 55,000 418,152 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/12-6/30/13 2,000,000 143 4 289,280 30,008 319,288 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/13-6/30/14 2,000,000 165 8 455,578 38,980 494,557 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/14-6/30/15 2,000,000 150 7 833,150 374,364 1,207,513 291,069 600,000 0 0 0 07/1/15-6/30/16 2,000,000 144 16 398,212 239,910 638,122 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/16-6/30/17 2,000,000 140 45 100,335 144,161 244,496 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 2,126 87 7,354,527 890,660 8,245,188 1,437,074 1,746,005 0 0 0 0

Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000 Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,000,000 Loss & ALAE Limited to $2,000,000 Loss & ALAE Limited to RetentionFiscal Case Case Case CaseYears Paid Reserves Reported Paid Reserves Reported Paid Reserves Reported Paid Reserves Reported

(12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 0 333,698 333,698 0 333,698 333,698 0 333,698 333,698 0 333,6987/1/05-6/30/06 509,266 4,005 513,271 509,266 4,005 513,271 509,266 4,005 513,271 509,266 4,005 513,2717/1/06-6/30/07 452,386 0 452,386 452,386 0 452,386 452,386 0 452,386 452,386 0 452,3867/1/07-6/30/08 617,275 1,000 618,275 1,305,918 1,000 1,306,918 1,305,918 1,000 1,306,918 1,305,918 1,000 1,306,9187/1/08-6/30/09 661,147 0 661,147 906,683 0 906,683 906,683 0 906,683 906,683 0 906,6837/1/09-6/30/10 738,320 2,665 740,985 950,146 2,665 952,811 950,146 2,665 952,811 950,146 2,665 952,8117/1/10-6/30/11 456,725 568 457,292 456,725 568 457,292 456,725 568 457,292 456,725 568 457,2927/1/11-6/30/12 363,152 55,000 418,152 363,152 55,000 418,152 363,152 55,000 418,152 363,152 55,000 418,1527/1/12-6/30/13 289,280 30,008 319,288 289,280 30,008 319,288 289,280 30,008 319,288 289,280 30,008 319,2887/1/13-6/30/14 455,578 38,980 494,557 455,578 38,980 494,557 455,578 38,980 494,557 455,578 38,980 494,5577/1/14-6/30/15 542,080 65,433 607,513 833,150 374,364 1,207,513 833,150 374,364 1,207,513 833,150 374,364 1,207,5137/1/15-6/30/16 398,212 239,910 638,122 398,212 239,910 638,122 398,212 239,910 638,122 398,212 239,910 638,1227/1/16-6/30/17 100,335 144,161 244,496 100,335 144,161 244,496 100,335 144,161 244,496 100,335 144,161 244,496

Total 5,917,454 581,729 6,499,183 7,354,527 890,660 8,245,188 7,354,527 890,660 8,245,188 7,354,527 890,660 8,245,188

Notes:Columns (1) through (23) provided by City of Virginia Beach.* Reported claim count excludes claims closed without payment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

70

Page 73: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 5Sheet 2

Fiscal Date of Occurrence ClaimYear Loss Number Status Paid Reported Retention Paid Reported

2006 9/14/2005 GL076703 Closed 173,268 173,268 2,000,000 173,268 173,268 2007 9/21/2006 GL076912 Closed 120,514 120,514 2,000,000 120,514 120,514 2008 12/28/2007 GL077575 * Closed 938,643 938,643 2,000,000 938,643 938,643 2009 1/1/2009 GL081830 Closed 495,535 495,535 2,000,000 495,535 495,535 2010 2/6/2010 GL079173 Closed 461,826 461,826 2,000,000 461,826 461,826 2011 7/11/2010 GL079476 Closed 129,246 129,246 2,000,000 129,246 129,246 2012 9/1/2011 GL080693 Open 125,793 180,793 2,000,000 125,793 180,793 2014 6/30/2014 GL082246 Closed 116,304 116,304 2,000,000 116,304 116,304 2015 9/15/2014 GL083324 Open 541,069 850,000 2,000,000 541,069 850,000 2016 9/5/2015 GL083140 Open 110 100,110 2,000,000 110 100,110 2016 9/30/2015 GL083988 Closed 100,250 100,250 2,000,000 100,250 100,250 2016 2/11/2016 GL083408 Open 14,966 115,066 2,000,000 14,966 115,066 2017 4/8/2017 GL084099 Open 3,290 103,290 2,000,000 3,290 103,290

Notes:* Claims have been combined on a per-occurrence basis.

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Unlimited Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Detail of Large Losses with Combined Loss & ALAE Greater than $100,000

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

71

Page 74: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of April 30, 2017

Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180

5/1/91-4/30/92 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,8025/1/92-4/30/93 421,515 421,719 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,7035/1/93-4/30/94 593,582 639,782 636,544 636,544 636,544 636,544 636,544 636,544 636,544 636,5445/1/94-4/30/95 476,559 477,559 476,559 476,559 476,559 476,559 476,559 476,559 476,559 476,559 476,5595/1/95-4/30/96 756,879 791,958 791,458 791,458 791,458 791,458 791,458 791,458 791,458 791,458 791,458 791,4585/1/96-4/30/97 798,171 914,316 835,865 870,865 873,665 821,744 821,444 821,444 821,444 821,444 821,444 821,444 821,4445/1/97-4/30/98 666,430 1,082,788 1,076,631 954,338 954,338 954,338 954,338 954,338 954,338 954,338 954,338 954,338 954,338 954,3385/1/98-4/30/99 318,873 1,128,967 1,462,730 1,443,561 1,235,813 1,264,347 1,253,350 1,191,656 1,196,156 1,196,156 1,196,156 1,196,156 1,196,156 1,196,156 1,196,1565/1/99-4/30/00 245,885 541,495 577,757 589,013 562,570 563,676 562,775 562,775 562,775 562,775 562,775 562,775 562,775 562,775 558,9185/1/00-4/30/01 199,030 372,474 396,916 356,059 351,759 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,759 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,6595/1/01-4/30/02 398,646 538,110 613,054 747,179 908,230 908,230 874,409 874,409 874,409 874,409 874,409 874,409 874,409 874,409 874,4095/1/02-4/30/03 357,054 393,861 466,938 529,047 505,308 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 468,728 468,728 468,728 468,7285/1/03-4/30/04 477,272 788,814 943,917 806,435 816,373 805,032 805,032 805,032 805,032 805,032 805,032 805,032 805,032 805,0325/1/04-4/30/05 397,670 439,051 425,891 425,785 481,668 484,097 505,256 505,256 505,256 479,256 479,256 479,256 479,2565/1/05-4/30/06 238,921 249,030 354,748 501,979 425,192 423,352 423,352 423,352 423,352 423,352 422,352 422,3525/1/06-4/30/07 256,904 398,147 401,684 414,388 414,420 454,420 454,420 454,420 454,420 509,934 510,0345/1/07-4/30/08 494,759 625,625 636,175 661,014 590,531 590,531 590,531 590,531 590,531 590,5315/1/08-4/30/09 316,708 592,611 676,589 513,371 462,045 712,045 712,045 721,191 721,1915/1/09-4/30/10 430,004 423,169 458,269 601,166 570,766 584,422 634,222 634,2225/1/10-4/30/11 212,993 333,949 426,825 503,562 502,462 496,495 496,4955/1/11-4/30/12 276,015 301,097 457,230 457,230 475,024 474,9245/1/12-4/30/13 233,591 284,263 279,388 283,880 285,4805/1/13-4/30/14 224,089 355,517 370,728 375,3485/1/14-4/30/15 181,972 319,420 722,9825/1/15-4/30/16 255,951 553,9045/1/16-4/30/17 226,716

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/92-4/30/93 1.000 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.078 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/94-4/30/95 1.002 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 1.046 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 1.146 0.914 1.042 1.003 0.941 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 1.625 0.994 0.886 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/98-4/30/99 3.540 1.296 0.987 0.856 1.023 0.991 0.951 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 2.202 1.067 1.019 0.955 1.002 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.9935/1/00-4/30/01 1.871 1.066 0.897 0.988 0.980 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 1.350 1.139 1.219 1.216 1.000 0.963 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/02-4/30/03 1.103 1.186 1.133 0.955 0.921 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/03-4/30/04 1.653 1.197 0.854 1.012 0.986 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/04-4/30/05 1.104 0.970 1.000 1.131 1.005 1.044 1.000 1.000 0.949 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/05-4/30/06 1.042 1.425 1.415 0.847 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 1.0005/1/06-4/30/07 1.550 1.009 1.032 1.000 1.097 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.122 1.0005/1/07-4/30/08 1.265 1.017 1.039 0.893 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/08-4/30/09 1.871 1.142 0.759 0.900 1.541 1.000 1.013 1.0005/1/09-4/30/10 0.984 1.083 1.312 0.949 1.024 1.085 1.0005/1/10-4/30/11 1.568 1.278 1.180 0.998 0.988 1.0005/1/11-4/30/12 1.091 1.519 1.000 1.039 1.0005/1/12-4/30/13 1.217 0.983 1.016 1.0065/1/13-4/30/14 1.587 1.043 1.0125/1/14-4/30/15 1.755 2.2635/1/15-4/30/16 2.164

All Years Weighted 1.566 1.229 1.034 0.964 1.027 1.006 0.991 1.001 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005 Years Weighted 1.548 1.416 1.115 0.973 1.099 1.018 1.003 1.000 1.011 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 0.9993 Years Weighted 1.856 1.432 1.008 1.015 1.005 1.028 1.005 1.000 1.038 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000All Years excl Hi-Lo 1.525 1.192 1.052 0.971 1.009 1.007 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0007 Years excl Hi-Lo 1.444 1.213 1.049 0.971 1.023 1.009 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Industry 1.793 1.374 1.186 1.085 1.044 1.028 1.015 1.013 1.012 1.009 1.007 1.006 1.004 1.003 1.012Prior (4/30/15) 1.500 1.200 1.100 1.010 1.007 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

Age to Age 1.690 1.200 1.100 1.015 1.009 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Age to Ultimate 2.299 1.361 1.134 1.031 1.016 1.007 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

72

Page 75: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of April 30, 2017

Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180

5/1/91-4/30/92 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,8025/1/92-4/30/93 421,515 421,719 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,7035/1/93-4/30/94 593,582 636,482 636,544 636,544 636,544 636,544 636,544 636,544 636,544 636,5445/1/94-4/30/95 476,559 476,559 476,559 476,559 476,559 476,559 476,559 476,559 476,559 476,559 476,5595/1/95-4/30/96 755,548 791,458 791,458 791,458 791,458 791,458 791,458 791,458 791,458 791,458 791,458 791,4585/1/96-4/30/97 797,435 818,651 819,886 820,480 821,444 821,444 821,444 821,444 821,444 821,444 821,444 821,444 821,4445/1/97-4/30/98 658,329 946,953 949,390 954,338 954,338 954,338 954,338 954,338 954,338 954,338 954,338 954,338 954,338 954,3385/1/98-4/30/99 308,226 708,064 841,112 1,123,728 1,152,817 1,178,551 1,190,814 1,191,656 1,196,156 1,196,156 1,196,156 1,196,156 1,196,156 1,196,156 1,196,1565/1/99-4/30/00 211,144 268,696 528,255 554,167 558,884 562,775 562,775 562,775 562,775 562,775 562,775 562,775 562,775 562,775 558,9185/1/00-4/30/01 150,870 319,151 339,168 344,446 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,6595/1/01-4/30/02 289,112 506,674 600,761 631,574 872,405 874,409 874,409 874,409 874,409 874,409 874,409 874,409 874,409 874,409 874,4095/1/02-4/30/03 295,343 335,573 381,919 463,905 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 468,728 468,728 468,728 468,7285/1/03-4/30/04 221,485 769,539 781,185 805,335 805,532 805,032 805,032 805,032 805,032 805,032 805,032 805,032 805,032 805,0325/1/04-4/30/05 314,371 357,772 412,821 417,020 427,718 430,606 479,256 479,256 479,256 479,256 479,256 479,256 479,2565/1/05-4/30/06 207,344 242,353 332,817 422,407 422,352 422,352 422,352 422,352 422,352 422,352 422,352 422,3525/1/06-4/30/07 207,764 354,732 383,514 402,673 405,292 417,823 424,058 424,058 424,058 430,929 505,9295/1/07-4/30/08 267,301 531,637 584,269 585,884 586,430 590,531 590,531 590,531 590,531 590,5315/1/08-4/30/09 255,508 320,702 397,954 436,971 461,045 508,749 711,045 720,191 720,1915/1/09-4/30/10 220,418 310,837 311,696 563,101 563,101 581,557 631,557 631,5575/1/10-4/30/11 183,704 223,281 280,309 496,294 496,294 495,927 495,9275/1/11-4/30/12 219,415 300,447 300,874 300,974 419,924 419,9245/1/12-4/30/13 194,509 260,847 260,847 261,372 262,9725/1/13-4/30/14 194,958 338,017 355,228 357,1485/1/14-4/30/15 136,747 271,716 658,8125/1/15-4/30/16 194,514 412,0045/1/16-4/30/17 109,610

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/92-4/30/93 1.000 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.072 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/94-4/30/95 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 1.048 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 1.027 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 1.438 1.003 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/98-4/30/99 2.297 1.188 1.336 1.026 1.022 1.010 1.001 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 1.273 1.966 1.049 1.009 1.007 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.9935/1/00-4/30/01 2.115 1.063 1.016 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 1.753 1.186 1.051 1.381 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/02-4/30/03 1.136 1.138 1.215 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/03-4/30/04 3.474 1.015 1.031 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/04-4/30/05 1.138 1.154 1.010 1.026 1.007 1.113 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/05-4/30/06 1.169 1.373 1.269 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/06-4/30/07 1.707 1.081 1.050 1.007 1.031 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.016 1.1745/1/07-4/30/08 1.989 1.099 1.003 1.001 1.007 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/08-4/30/09 1.255 1.241 1.098 1.055 1.103 1.398 1.013 1.0005/1/09-4/30/10 1.410 1.003 1.807 1.000 1.033 1.086 1.0005/1/10-4/30/11 1.215 1.255 1.771 1.000 0.999 1.0005/1/11-4/30/12 1.369 1.001 1.000 1.395 1.0005/1/12-4/30/13 1.341 1.000 1.002 1.0065/1/13-4/30/14 1.734 1.051 1.0055/1/14-4/30/15 1.987 2.4255/1/15-4/30/16 2.118

All Years Weighted 1.678 1.229 1.124 1.046 1.011 1.032 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005 Years Weighted 1.684 1.331 1.311 1.070 1.028 1.100 1.003 1.000 1.003 1.029 1.001 1.000 1.000 0.9993 Years Weighted 1.942 1.464 1.003 1.114 1.012 1.159 1.005 1.000 1.005 1.056 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000All Years excl Hi-Lo 1.617 1.203 1.121 1.035 1.007 1.019 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0007 Years excl Hi-Lo 1.568 1.110 1.176 1.014 1.014 1.043 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Industry 2.466 1.694 1.368 1.212 1.110 1.067 1.042 1.027 1.021 1.018 1.015 1.012 1.010 1.007 1.031Prior (4/30/15) 1.600 1.250 1.100 1.040 1.020 1.010 1.004 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

Age to Age 1.780 1.250 1.100 1.040 1.020 1.010 1.004 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Age to Ultimate 2.640 1.483 1.187 1.079 1.037 1.017 1.007 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

73

Page 76: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 3

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of April 30, 2017

Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,000,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180

5/1/91-4/30/92 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,8025/1/92-4/30/93 421,515 421,719 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,7035/1/93-4/30/94 698,289 758,836 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,9515/1/94-4/30/95 1,038,112 1,039,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,1125/1/95-4/30/96 952,915 987,993 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,4935/1/96-4/30/97 951,862 1,068,007 989,556 1,024,556 1,027,356 975,435 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,1355/1/97-4/30/98 1,416,430 2,582,788 2,576,631 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,3385/1/98-4/30/99 318,873 1,190,907 1,518,170 1,499,001 1,291,253 1,319,787 1,308,790 1,247,096 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,5965/1/99-4/30/00 245,885 541,495 989,757 992,485 966,042 967,148 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 962,3905/1/00-4/30/01 199,030 372,474 396,916 356,059 351,759 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,759 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,6595/1/01-4/30/02 398,646 538,110 613,054 747,179 911,277 911,277 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,4565/1/02-4/30/03 357,054 393,861 466,938 529,047 505,308 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 468,728 468,728 468,728 468,7285/1/03-4/30/04 612,272 1,577,215 1,608,973 1,471,490 1,481,429 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,0875/1/04-4/30/05 397,670 439,051 425,891 425,785 481,668 484,097 505,256 505,256 505,256 479,256 479,256 479,256 479,2565/1/05-4/30/06 238,921 249,030 354,748 1,051,979 425,192 423,352 423,352 423,352 423,352 423,352 422,352 422,3525/1/06-4/30/07 256,904 398,147 401,684 414,388 414,420 454,420 454,420 454,420 454,420 509,934 510,0345/1/07-4/30/08 494,759 1,375,625 1,386,175 1,354,657 1,284,174 1,279,174 1,279,174 1,279,174 1,279,174 1,279,1745/1/08-4/30/09 316,708 942,611 1,026,589 513,371 462,045 862,045 1,462,045 966,727 966,7275/1/09-4/30/10 430,004 423,169 458,269 812,992 782,592 796,248 846,048 846,0485/1/10-4/30/11 212,993 333,949 426,825 503,562 502,462 496,495 496,4955/1/11-4/30/12 276,015 301,097 457,230 457,230 475,024 474,9245/1/12-4/30/13 233,591 284,263 279,388 283,880 285,4805/1/13-4/30/14 224,089 355,517 370,728 375,3485/1/14-4/30/15 181,972 319,420 1,322,9825/1/15-4/30/16 255,951 553,9045/1/16-4/30/17 226,716

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/92-4/30/93 1.000 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.087 0.992 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/94-4/30/95 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 1.037 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 1.122 0.927 1.035 1.003 0.949 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 1.823 0.998 0.953 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/98-4/30/99 3.735 1.275 0.987 0.861 1.022 0.992 0.953 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 2.202 1.828 1.003 0.973 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.9965/1/00-4/30/01 1.871 1.066 0.897 0.988 0.980 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 1.350 1.139 1.219 1.220 1.000 0.963 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/02-4/30/03 1.103 1.186 1.133 0.955 0.921 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/03-4/30/04 2.576 1.020 0.915 1.007 0.992 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/04-4/30/05 1.104 0.970 1.000 1.131 1.005 1.044 1.000 1.000 0.949 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/05-4/30/06 1.042 1.425 2.965 0.404 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 1.0005/1/06-4/30/07 1.550 1.009 1.032 1.000 1.097 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.122 1.0005/1/07-4/30/08 2.780 1.008 0.977 0.948 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/08-4/30/09 2.976 1.089 0.500 0.900 1.866 1.696 0.661 1.0005/1/09-4/30/10 0.984 1.083 1.774 0.963 1.017 1.063 1.0005/1/10-4/30/11 1.568 1.278 1.180 0.998 0.988 1.0005/1/11-4/30/12 1.091 1.519 1.000 1.039 1.0005/1/12-4/30/13 1.217 0.983 1.016 1.0065/1/13-4/30/14 1.587 1.043 1.0125/1/14-4/30/15 1.755 4.1425/1/15-4/30/16 2.164

All Years Weighted 1.874 1.317 1.049 0.940 1.028 1.042 0.964 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005 Years Weighted 1.548 1.792 1.221 0.975 1.115 1.167 0.889 1.000 1.007 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 0.9993 Years Weighted 1.856 2.057 1.008 1.015 1.004 1.302 0.862 1.000 1.026 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000All Years excl Hi-Lo 1.746 1.236 1.079 0.980 1.008 1.012 0.993 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0007 Years excl Hi-Lo 1.444 1.202 1.037 0.983 1.021 1.021 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Industry 1.888 1.418 1.218 1.107 1.061 1.040 1.022 1.017 1.016 1.013 1.010 1.008 1.007 1.005 1.021Prior (4/30/15) 1.700 1.250 1.150 1.025 1.010 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

Age to Age 1.690 1.250 1.150 1.025 1.013 1.007 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Age to Ultimate 2.552 1.510 1.208 1.050 1.025 1.011 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

74

Page 77: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 4

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of April 30, 2017

Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,000,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180

5/1/91-4/30/92 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,8025/1/92-4/30/93 421,515 421,719 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,7035/1/93-4/30/94 698,289 741,189 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,9515/1/94-4/30/95 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,1125/1/95-4/30/96 951,583 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,4935/1/96-4/30/97 951,126 972,342 973,577 974,171 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,1355/1/97-4/30/98 1,408,329 2,446,953 2,449,390 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,338 2,454,3385/1/98-4/30/99 308,226 763,504 896,552 1,179,168 1,208,257 1,233,991 1,246,254 1,247,096 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,5965/1/99-4/30/00 211,144 268,696 931,727 957,639 962,356 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 962,3905/1/00-4/30/01 150,870 319,151 339,168 344,446 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,6595/1/01-4/30/02 289,112 506,674 600,761 631,574 875,452 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,4565/1/02-4/30/03 295,343 335,573 381,919 463,905 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 468,728 468,728 468,728 468,7285/1/03-4/30/04 221,485 1,414,695 1,446,241 1,470,390 1,470,587 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,0875/1/04-4/30/05 314,371 357,772 412,821 417,020 427,718 430,606 479,256 479,256 479,256 479,256 479,256 479,256 479,2565/1/05-4/30/06 207,344 242,353 332,817 422,407 422,352 422,352 422,352 422,352 422,352 422,352 422,352 422,3525/1/06-4/30/07 207,764 354,732 383,514 402,673 405,292 417,823 424,058 424,058 424,058 430,929 505,9295/1/07-4/30/08 267,301 1,219,476 1,272,912 1,274,527 1,275,073 1,279,174 1,279,174 1,279,174 1,279,174 1,279,1745/1/08-4/30/09 255,508 320,702 397,954 436,971 461,045 508,749 951,349 965,727 965,7275/1/09-4/30/10 220,418 310,837 311,696 774,927 774,927 793,383 843,383 843,3835/1/10-4/30/11 183,704 223,281 280,309 496,294 496,294 495,927 495,9275/1/11-4/30/12 219,415 300,447 300,874 300,974 419,924 419,9245/1/12-4/30/13 194,509 260,847 260,847 261,372 262,9725/1/13-4/30/14 194,958 338,017 355,228 357,1485/1/14-4/30/15 136,747 271,716 741,5285/1/15-4/30/16 194,514 412,0045/1/16-4/30/17 109,610

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/92-4/30/93 1.000 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.061 1.016 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/94-4/30/95 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 1.038 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 1.022 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 1.737 1.001 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/98-4/30/99 2.477 1.174 1.315 1.025 1.021 1.010 1.001 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 1.273 3.468 1.028 1.005 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.9965/1/00-4/30/01 2.115 1.063 1.016 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 1.753 1.186 1.051 1.386 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/02-4/30/03 1.136 1.138 1.215 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/03-4/30/04 6.387 1.022 1.017 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/04-4/30/05 1.138 1.154 1.010 1.026 1.007 1.113 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/05-4/30/06 1.169 1.373 1.269 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/06-4/30/07 1.707 1.081 1.050 1.007 1.031 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.016 1.1745/1/07-4/30/08 4.562 1.044 1.001 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/08-4/30/09 1.255 1.241 1.098 1.055 1.103 1.870 1.015 1.0005/1/09-4/30/10 1.410 1.003 2.486 1.000 1.024 1.063 1.0005/1/10-4/30/11 1.215 1.255 1.771 1.000 0.999 1.0005/1/11-4/30/12 1.369 1.001 1.000 1.395 1.0005/1/12-4/30/13 1.341 1.000 1.002 1.0065/1/13-4/30/14 1.734 1.051 1.0055/1/14-4/30/15 1.987 2.7295/1/15-4/30/16 2.118

All Years Weighted 2.018 1.312 1.106 1.034 1.008 1.038 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.006 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005 Years Weighted 1.684 1.390 1.452 1.064 1.020 1.143 1.004 1.000 1.002 1.023 1.001 1.000 1.000 0.9993 Years Weighted 1.942 1.559 1.003 1.114 1.011 1.274 1.005 1.000 1.003 1.056 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000All Years excl Hi-Lo 1.789 1.266 1.117 1.035 1.006 1.016 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0007 Years excl Hi-Lo 1.568 1.110 1.175 1.014 1.012 1.038 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Industry 2.575 1.742 1.394 1.228 1.121 1.073 1.046 1.030 1.024 1.019 1.016 1.013 1.011 1.009 1.043Prior (4/30/15) 1.900 1.300 1.200 1.050 1.030 1.015 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

Age to Age 1.900 1.300 1.200 1.050 1.030 1.015 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Age to Ultimate 3.286 1.729 1.330 1.109 1.056 1.025 1.010 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

75

Page 78: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 5

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of April 30, 2017

Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $2,000,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180

5/1/91-4/30/92 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,8025/1/92-4/30/93 421,515 421,719 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,7035/1/93-4/30/94 698,289 758,836 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,9515/1/94-4/30/95 1,038,112 1,039,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,1125/1/95-4/30/96 952,915 987,993 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,4935/1/96-4/30/97 951,862 1,068,007 989,556 1,024,556 1,027,356 975,435 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,1355/1/97-4/30/98 1,880,958 4,086,663 4,053,840 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,7175/1/98-4/30/99 318,873 1,190,907 1,518,170 1,499,001 1,291,253 1,319,787 1,308,790 1,247,096 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,5965/1/99-4/30/00 245,885 541,495 989,757 992,485 966,042 967,148 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 962,3905/1/00-4/30/01 199,030 372,474 396,916 356,059 351,759 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,759 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,6595/1/01-4/30/02 398,646 538,110 613,054 747,179 911,277 911,277 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,4565/1/02-4/30/03 357,054 393,861 466,938 529,047 505,308 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 468,728 468,728 468,728 468,7285/1/03-4/30/04 612,272 1,689,095 1,608,973 1,471,490 1,481,429 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,0875/1/04-4/30/05 397,670 439,051 425,891 425,785 481,668 484,097 505,256 505,256 505,256 479,256 479,256 479,256 479,2565/1/05-4/30/06 238,921 249,030 354,748 1,051,979 425,192 423,352 423,352 423,352 423,352 423,352 422,352 422,3525/1/06-4/30/07 256,904 398,147 401,684 414,388 414,420 454,420 454,420 454,420 454,420 509,934 510,0345/1/07-4/30/08 494,759 1,428,519 1,439,873 1,354,657 1,284,174 1,279,174 1,279,174 1,279,174 1,279,174 1,279,1745/1/08-4/30/09 316,708 942,611 1,026,589 513,371 462,045 862,045 1,662,045 966,727 966,7275/1/09-4/30/10 430,004 423,169 458,269 812,992 782,592 796,248 846,048 846,0485/1/10-4/30/11 212,993 333,949 426,825 503,562 502,462 496,495 496,4955/1/11-4/30/12 276,015 301,097 457,230 457,230 475,024 474,9245/1/12-4/30/13 233,591 284,263 279,388 283,880 285,4805/1/13-4/30/14 224,089 355,517 370,728 375,3485/1/14-4/30/15 181,972 319,420 1,322,9825/1/15-4/30/16 255,951 553,9045/1/16-4/30/17 226,716

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/92-4/30/93 1.000 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.087 0.992 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/94-4/30/95 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 1.037 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 1.122 0.927 1.035 1.003 0.949 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 2.173 0.992 0.970 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/98-4/30/99 3.735 1.275 0.987 0.861 1.022 0.992 0.953 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 2.202 1.828 1.003 0.973 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.9965/1/00-4/30/01 1.871 1.066 0.897 0.988 0.980 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 1.350 1.139 1.219 1.220 1.000 0.963 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/02-4/30/03 1.103 1.186 1.133 0.955 0.921 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/03-4/30/04 2.759 0.953 0.915 1.007 0.992 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/04-4/30/05 1.104 0.970 1.000 1.131 1.005 1.044 1.000 1.000 0.949 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/05-4/30/06 1.042 1.425 2.965 0.404 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 1.0005/1/06-4/30/07 1.550 1.009 1.032 1.000 1.097 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.122 1.0005/1/07-4/30/08 2.887 1.008 0.941 0.948 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/08-4/30/09 2.976 1.089 0.500 0.900 1.866 1.928 0.582 1.0005/1/09-4/30/10 0.984 1.083 1.774 0.963 1.017 1.063 1.0005/1/10-4/30/11 1.568 1.278 1.180 0.998 0.988 1.0005/1/11-4/30/12 1.091 1.519 1.000 1.039 1.0005/1/12-4/30/13 1.217 0.983 1.016 1.0065/1/13-4/30/14 1.587 1.043 1.0125/1/14-4/30/15 1.755 4.1425/1/15-4/30/16 2.164

All Years Weighted 1.903 1.378 1.039 0.945 1.026 1.049 0.957 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005 Years Weighted 1.548 1.792 1.221 0.975 1.115 1.219 0.851 1.000 1.007 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 0.9993 Years Weighted 1.856 2.057 1.008 1.015 1.004 1.394 0.816 1.000 1.026 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000All Years excl Hi-Lo 1.764 1.254 1.076 0.981 1.008 1.012 0.993 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0007 Years excl Hi-Lo 1.444 1.202 1.030 0.983 1.021 1.021 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Industry 1.899 1.421 1.226 1.110 1.061 1.042 1.025 1.020 1.018 1.014 1.012 1.009 1.008 1.006 1.026Prior (4/30/15) 1.800 1.300 1.200 1.050 1.020 1.010 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

Age to Age 1.800 1.280 1.200 1.030 1.020 1.010 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000Age to Ultimate 2.958 1.643 1.284 1.070 1.039 1.018 1.008 1.006 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

76

Page 79: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 6

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of April 30, 2017

Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $2,000,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180

5/1/91-4/30/92 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,802 228,8025/1/92-4/30/93 421,515 421,719 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,703 423,7035/1/93-4/30/94 698,289 741,189 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,951 752,9515/1/94-4/30/95 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,112 1,038,1125/1/95-4/30/96 951,583 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,493 987,4935/1/96-4/30/97 951,126 972,342 973,577 974,171 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,135 975,1355/1/97-4/30/98 1,845,331 3,924,162 3,926,600 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,717 3,931,7175/1/98-4/30/99 308,226 763,504 896,552 1,179,168 1,208,257 1,233,991 1,246,254 1,247,096 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,596 1,251,5965/1/99-4/30/00 211,144 268,696 931,727 957,639 962,356 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 966,247 962,3905/1/00-4/30/01 150,870 319,151 339,168 344,446 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,659 344,6595/1/01-4/30/02 289,112 506,674 600,761 631,574 875,452 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,456 877,4565/1/02-4/30/03 295,343 335,573 381,919 463,905 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 465,166 468,728 468,728 468,728 468,7285/1/03-4/30/04 221,485 1,414,695 1,446,241 1,470,390 1,470,587 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,087 1,470,0875/1/04-4/30/05 314,371 357,772 412,821 417,020 427,718 430,606 479,256 479,256 479,256 479,256 479,256 479,256 479,2565/1/05-4/30/06 207,344 242,353 332,817 422,407 422,352 422,352 422,352 422,352 422,352 422,352 422,352 422,3525/1/06-4/30/07 207,764 354,732 383,514 402,673 405,292 417,823 424,058 424,058 424,058 430,929 505,9295/1/07-4/30/08 267,301 1,219,476 1,272,912 1,274,527 1,275,073 1,279,174 1,279,174 1,279,174 1,279,174 1,279,1745/1/08-4/30/09 255,508 320,702 397,954 436,971 461,045 508,749 951,349 965,727 965,7275/1/09-4/30/10 220,418 310,837 311,696 774,927 774,927 793,383 843,383 843,3835/1/10-4/30/11 183,704 223,281 280,309 496,294 496,294 495,927 495,9275/1/11-4/30/12 219,415 300,447 300,874 300,974 419,924 419,9245/1/12-4/30/13 194,509 260,847 260,847 261,372 262,9725/1/13-4/30/14 194,958 338,017 355,228 357,1485/1/14-4/30/15 136,747 271,716 741,5285/1/15-4/30/16 194,514 412,0045/1/16-4/30/17 109,610

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/92-4/30/93 1.000 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.061 1.016 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/94-4/30/95 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 1.038 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 1.022 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 2.127 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/98-4/30/99 2.477 1.174 1.315 1.025 1.021 1.010 1.001 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 1.273 3.468 1.028 1.005 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.9965/1/00-4/30/01 2.115 1.063 1.016 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 1.753 1.186 1.051 1.386 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/02-4/30/03 1.136 1.138 1.215 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/03-4/30/04 6.387 1.022 1.017 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/04-4/30/05 1.138 1.154 1.010 1.026 1.007 1.113 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/05-4/30/06 1.169 1.373 1.269 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/06-4/30/07 1.707 1.081 1.050 1.007 1.031 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.016 1.1745/1/07-4/30/08 4.562 1.044 1.001 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/08-4/30/09 1.255 1.241 1.098 1.055 1.103 1.870 1.015 1.0005/1/09-4/30/10 1.410 1.003 2.486 1.000 1.024 1.063 1.0005/1/10-4/30/11 1.215 1.255 1.771 1.000 0.999 1.0005/1/11-4/30/12 1.369 1.001 1.000 1.395 1.0005/1/12-4/30/13 1.341 1.000 1.002 1.0065/1/13-4/30/14 1.734 1.051 1.0055/1/14-4/30/15 1.987 2.7295/1/15-4/30/16 2.118

All Years Weighted 2.018 1.406 1.095 1.031 1.007 1.035 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005 Years Weighted 1.684 1.390 1.452 1.064 1.020 1.143 1.004 1.000 1.002 1.023 1.001 1.000 1.000 0.9993 Years Weighted 1.942 1.559 1.003 1.114 1.011 1.274 1.005 1.000 1.003 1.056 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000All Years excl Hi-Lo 1.789 1.290 1.117 1.035 1.006 1.016 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0007 Years excl Hi-Lo 1.568 1.110 1.175 1.014 1.012 1.038 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Industry 2.596 1.744 1.398 1.229 1.121 1.073 1.047 1.031 1.025 1.020 1.017 1.014 1.011 1.009 1.046Prior (4/30/15) 2.000 1.350 1.200 1.050 1.040 1.020 1.007 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

Age to Age 2.000 1.350 1.200 1.064 1.040 1.020 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000Age to Ultimate 3.714 1.857 1.376 1.146 1.078 1.036 1.016 1.011 1.008 1.006 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

77

Page 80: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 7

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of April 30, 2017

Reported Claim Counts excluding Claims Closed with no Payment

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180

5/1/91-4/30/92 147 147 147 147 147 147 147 1475/1/92-4/30/93 152 152 152 152 152 152 151 151 1515/1/93-4/30/94 198 200 199 199 199 199 201 200 200 2005/1/94-4/30/95 221 222 221 221 221 221 219 220 220 220 2205/1/95-4/30/96 192 193 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 1925/1/96-4/30/97 209 211 210 210 211 211 210 210 210 210 210 210 2105/1/97-4/30/98 244 252 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 2485/1/98-4/30/99 194 251 252 250 247 246 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 2485/1/99-4/30/00 270 234 237 237 237 234 233 233 234 233 233 233 233 233 2325/1/00-4/30/01 287 245 247 247 246 238 238 238 238 239 238 238 238 238 2385/1/01-4/30/02 285 263 261 263 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 259 2595/1/02-4/30/03 256 232 233 232 232 232 232 231 231 231 231 231 231 231 2315/1/03-4/30/04 260 232 232 232 232 231 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 2305/1/04-4/30/05 250 227 226 227 228 227 226 226 226 225 225 225 2255/1/05-4/30/06 203 174 176 176 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 1755/1/06-4/30/07 236 193 194 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 1925/1/07-4/30/08 183 160 162 161 162 162 163 163 162 1625/1/08-4/30/09 158 155 156 156 155 156 156 157 1575/1/09-4/30/10 200 170 171 170 168 169 167 1675/1/10-4/30/11 190 179 178 174 172 170 1705/1/11-4/30/12 183 174 174 173 172 1715/1/12-4/30/13 172 144 140 131 1325/1/13-4/30/14 216 178 164 1655/1/14-4/30/15 239 156 1475/1/15-4/30/16 157 1555/1/16-4/30/17 141

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/92-4/30/93 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.993 1.000 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.010 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.010 0.995 1.000 1.0005/1/94-4/30/95 1.005 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.991 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 1.005 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 1.010 0.995 1.000 1.005 1.000 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 1.033 0.984 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/98-4/30/99 1.294 1.004 0.992 0.988 0.996 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 0.867 1.013 1.000 1.000 0.987 0.996 1.000 1.004 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.9965/1/00-4/30/01 0.854 1.008 1.000 0.996 0.967 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.004 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 0.923 0.992 1.008 0.985 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/02-4/30/03 0.906 1.004 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/03-4/30/04 0.892 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.996 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/04-4/30/05 0.908 0.996 1.004 1.004 0.996 0.996 1.000 1.000 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/05-4/30/06 0.857 1.011 1.000 0.994 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/06-4/30/07 0.818 1.005 0.985 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0055/1/07-4/30/08 0.874 1.013 0.994 1.006 1.000 1.006 1.000 0.994 1.0005/1/08-4/30/09 0.981 1.006 1.000 0.994 1.006 1.000 1.006 1.0005/1/09-4/30/10 0.850 1.006 0.994 0.988 1.006 0.988 1.0005/1/10-4/30/11 0.942 0.994 0.978 0.989 0.988 1.0005/1/11-4/30/12 0.951 1.000 0.994 0.994 0.9945/1/12-4/30/13 0.837 0.972 0.936 1.0085/1/13-4/30/14 0.824 0.921 1.0065/1/14-4/30/15 0.653 0.9425/1/15-4/30/16 0.987

All Years Weighted 0.894 0.998 0.995 0.997 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.0005 Years Weighted 0.835 0.966 0.983 0.994 0.999 0.999 1.001 0.999 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.9993 Years Weighted 0.799 0.944 0.981 0.996 0.996 0.996 1.002 0.998 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000All Years excl Hi-Lo 0.892 0.998 0.996 0.997 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0007 Years excl Hi-Lo 0.881 0.983 0.992 0.997 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Prior (4/30/15) 0.885 0.999 0.993 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

Age to Age 0.864 0.982 0.989 0.995 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Age to Ultimate 0.833 0.964 0.982 0.993 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

78

Page 81: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 7

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

General LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Comparison of Expected Development to Actual Development

SECTION I - REPORTED LOSS & ALAE ActualChange in Expected Actual Selected Change in Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Expected Percent Reported Change in Minus Ultimate Loss Due to Due to TotalFiscal Selected Ultimate as of 6/30/15 Actual Reported Loss & ALAE as of Reported as of 6/15 - 6/17 Reported Expected & ALAE as of Change in Change in Change SinceYears Actual Adjusted 6/30/15 6/30/17 6/30/15 6/30/17 (2b) - (2a) 6/15 - 6/17 (4) - (5) 6/30/17 Exposures Experience Prior

(1a) (1b) (2a) (2b) (3a) (3b) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8a) = (1b) - (1a) (8b) = (7) - (1b) (8c) = (8a) + (8b)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 333,698 333,698 333,698 99.9% 100.0% 0 0 0 333,698 0 0 07/1/05-6/30/06 517,284 517,284 513,271 513,271 99.8% 100.0% 0 4,013 (4,013) 515,276 0 (2,008) (2,008)7/1/06-6/30/07 421,983 421,983 396,899 452,386 99.7% 99.9% 55,486 16,714 38,772 452,386 0 30,403 30,4037/1/07-6/30/08 1,310,079 1,310,079 1,307,018 1,306,918 99.6% 99.8% (100) 1,529 (1,629) 1,309,335 0 (744) (744)7/1/08-6/30/09 897,537 897,537 897,537 906,683 99.4% 99.7% 9,146 0 9,146 906,683 0 9,146 9,1467/1/09-6/30/10 964,844 964,844 952,811 952,811 98.4% 99.6% 0 8,998 (8,998) 958,350 0 (6,493) (6,493)7/1/10-6/30/11 474,350 474,350 457,692 457,292 96.5% 99.4% (399) 13,822 (14,222) 462,525 0 (11,824) (11,824)7/1/11-6/30/12 435,132 435,132 399,858 418,152 91.9% 98.4% 18,293 28,390 (10,097) 451,286 0 16,154 16,1547/1/12-6/30/13 393,905 393,905 301,644 319,288 76.6% 96.5% 17,644 78,427 (60,784) 351,450 0 (42,454) (42,454)7/1/13-6/30/14 640,762 640,762 374,386 494,557 58.9% 91.9% 120,171 213,829 (93,658) 535,421 0 (105,341) (105,341)7/1/14-6/30/15 630,610 611,672 179,885 1,207,513 32.7% 76.6% 1,027,629 281,458 746,171 1,458,685 (18,937) 847,012 828,0757/1/15-6/30/16 687,481 697,109 0 638,122 0.0% 58.9% 638,122 410,640 227,481 1,004,069 9,629 306,959 316,5887/1/16-6/30/17 705,438 734,502 0 244,496 0.0% 32.7% 244,496 240,370 4,126 859,275 29,064 124,773 153,837

Total All Years 8,413,101 8,432,856 6,114,700 8,245,188 2,130,488 1,298,190 832,297 9,598,439 19,755 1,165,583 1,185,338Exclude FY16 & FY17 7,020,182 7,001,245 6,114,700 7,362,570 1,247,870 647,180 600,690 7,735,095 (18,937) 733,850 714,913

SECTION II - PAID LOSS & ALAE ActualChange in Expected Actual Selected Change in Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Expected Percent Paid Change in Minus Ultimate Loss Due to Due to TotalFiscal Selected Ultimate as of 6/30/15 Actual Paid Loss & ALAE as of Paid as of 6/15 - 6/17 Paid Expected & ALAE as of Change in Change in Change SinceYears Actual Adjusted 6/30/15 6/30/17 6/30/15 6/30/17 (2b) - (2a) 6/15 - 6/17 (4) - (5) 6/30/17 Exposures Experience Prior

(1a) (1b) (2a) (2b) (3a) (3b) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8a) = (1b) - (1a) (8b) = (7) - (1b) (8c) = (8a) + (8b)

7/1/04-6/30/05 333,698 333,698 333,698 333,698 99.7% 99.9% 0 0 0 333,698 0 0 07/1/05-6/30/06 517,284 517,284 509,266 509,266 99.6% 99.8% 0 4,005 (4,005) 515,276 0 (2,008) (2,008)7/1/06-6/30/07 421,983 421,983 371,899 452,386 99.4% 99.7% 80,486 25,000 55,486 452,386 0 30,403 30,4037/1/07-6/30/08 1,310,079 1,310,079 1,305,918 1,305,918 99.1% 99.6% 0 2,306 (2,306) 1,309,335 0 (744) (744)7/1/08-6/30/09 897,537 897,537 897,537 906,683 98.4% 99.4% 9,146 0 9,146 906,683 0 9,146 9,1467/1/09-6/30/10 964,844 964,844 950,146 950,146 96.5% 99.1% 0 10,953 (10,953) 958,350 0 (6,493) (6,493)7/1/10-6/30/11 474,350 474,350 457,092 456,725 92.8% 98.4% (367) 13,474 (13,841) 462,525 0 (11,824) (11,824)7/1/11-6/30/12 435,132 435,132 244,202 363,152 88.4% 96.5% 118,950 133,307 (14,357) 451,286 0 16,154 16,1547/1/12-6/30/13 393,905 393,905 271,111 289,280 73.6% 92.8% 18,169 89,149 (70,981) 351,450 0 (42,454) (42,454)7/1/13-6/30/14 640,762 640,762 336,186 455,578 54.5% 88.4% 119,391 226,569 (107,178) 535,421 0 (105,341) (105,341)7/1/14-6/30/15 630,610 611,672 135,676 833,150 27.3% 73.6% 697,474 303,418 394,056 1,458,685 (18,937) 847,012 828,0757/1/15-6/30/16 687,481 697,109 0 398,212 0.0% 54.5% 398,212 380,215 17,997 1,004,069 9,629 306,959 316,5887/1/16-6/30/17 705,438 734,502 0 100,335 0.0% 27.3% 100,335 200,305 (99,970) 859,275 29,064 124,773 153,837

Total All Years 8,413,101 8,432,856 5,812,732 7,354,527 1,541,796 1,388,701 153,094 9,598,439 19,755 1,165,583 1,185,338Exclude FY16 & FY17 7,020,182 7,001,245 5,812,732 6,855,981 1,043,249 808,182 235,067 7,735,095 (18,937) 733,850 714,913

Notes:Columns (1a), (2a), and (3) are from Oliver Wyman's report using data valued as of June 30, 2015.Column (1b) has been adjusted for changes in revenue from the prior analysis.Column (2b) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (5) equals [Column (1b) - Column (2a)] x [Column (3b) - Column (3a)] / [1.00 - Column (3a)].Column (7) equals Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9).

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

79

Page 82: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 1Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Summary of Unpaid Loss & ALAE as of June 30, 2018

Selected Total Unpaid % Paid % Paid Expected Total UnpaidUltimate Loss Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Paid Between Loss & ALAE

Fiscal & ALAE as of as of as of as of 6/30/17 and as ofYears 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/18 6/30/18 6/30/18

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

7/1/04-6/30/05 1,169,493 0 100.0% 100.0% 0 07/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 0 100.0% 100.0% 0 07/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 0 100.0% 100.0% 0 07/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 0 100.0% 100.0% 0 07/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 0 99.9% 100.0% 0 07/1/09-6/30/10 726,460 0 99.7% 99.9% 0 07/1/10-6/30/11 221,944 0 99.2% 99.7% 0 07/1/11-6/30/12 1,251,372 0 98.2% 99.2% 0 07/1/12-6/30/13 320,457 29,915 96.3% 98.2% 15,515 14,4007/1/13-6/30/14 232,657 0 92.8% 96.3% 0 07/1/14-6/30/15 361,776 54,659 86.8% 92.8% 24,734 29,9247/1/15-6/30/16 1,047,196 295,052 70.7% 86.8% 162,394 132,6587/1/16-6/30/17 589,851 447,197 31.6% 70.7% 255,533 191,6637/1/17-6/30/18 767,200 0 0.0% 31.6% 242,330 524,869

Total 8,631,818 826,823 700,507 893,515

Current (Short-term) Liability (excludes FY2018)*: 458,177as a percent of 6/30/17 Liability: 55%

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9).Column (2) is from Exhibit 1, Sheet 3, Column (6).Columns (3) and (4) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheet 6.Column (5) equals Column (2) x [Column (4) - Column (3)] / [1.0 - Column (3)].Column (6) equals Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9) - Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (7) - Column (5).* Current (Short-term) liability is calculated as the expected payments during the next 12 months for accidents occurring through the current evaluation date only.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

80

Page 83: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 1Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Summary of Reported Loss & ALAE and IBNR as of June 30, 2018

Selected Total % Reported % Reported Expected TotalUltimate Loss IBNR Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Rpt Between IBNR

Fiscal & ALAE as of as of as of as of 6/30/17 and as ofYears 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/18 6/30/18 6/30/18

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

7/1/04-6/30/05 1,169,493 0 100.0% 100.0% 0 07/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 0 100.0% 100.0% 0 07/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 0 100.0% 100.0% 0 07/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 0 100.0% 100.0% 0 07/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 0 100.0% 100.0% 0 07/1/09-6/30/10 726,460 0 99.9% 100.0% 0 07/1/10-6/30/11 221,944 0 99.7% 99.9% 0 07/1/11-6/30/12 1,251,372 0 99.4% 99.7% 0 07/1/12-6/30/13 320,457 28,000 98.9% 99.4% 12,479 15,5217/1/13-6/30/14 232,657 0 97.8% 98.9% 0 07/1/14-6/30/15 361,776 28,446 92.8% 97.8% 19,778 8,6687/1/15-6/30/16 1,047,196 159,179 77.2% 92.8% 109,188 49,9917/1/16-6/30/17 589,851 401,400 52.6% 77.2% 208,475 192,9257/1/17-6/30/18 767,200 0 0.0% 52.6% 403,184 364,015

Total 8,631,818 617,025 753,104 631,121

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9).Column (2) is from Exhibit 1, Sheet 3, Column (5).Columns (3) and (4) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheet 5.Column (5) equals Column (2) x [Column (4) - Column (3)] / [1.0 - Column (3)].Column (6) equals Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9) - Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (6) - Column (5).

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

81

Page 84: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 1Sheet 3

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Summary of Reserves as of June 30, 2017

Reported Paid Case IBNR Total UnpaidSelected Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Reserves Reserves Loss & ALAE

Fiscal Ultimate as of as of as of as of as ofYears Loss & ALAE 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/17 6/30/17

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

7/1/04-6/30/05 1,169,493 1,169,493 1,169,493 0 0 07/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 725,117 725,117 0 0 07/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 504,989 504,989 0 0 07/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 345,237 345,237 0 0 07/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 368,069 368,069 0 0 07/1/09-6/30/10 726,460 726,460 726,460 0 0 07/1/10-6/30/11 221,944 221,944 221,944 0 0 07/1/11-6/30/12 1,251,372 1,251,372 1,251,372 0 0 07/1/12-6/30/13 320,457 292,457 290,541 1,915 28,000 29,9157/1/13-6/30/14 232,657 232,657 232,657 0 0 07/1/14-6/30/15 361,776 333,330 307,118 26,212 28,446 54,6597/1/15-6/30/16 1,047,196 888,018 752,144 135,874 159,179 295,0527/1/16-6/30/17 589,851 188,450 142,654 45,797 401,400 447,197

Total 7,864,618 7,247,593 7,037,795 209,798 617,025 826,823

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9).Columns (2) and (3) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (4) equals Column (2) - Column (3).Column (5) equals Column (1) - Column (2).Column (6) equals Column (4) + Column (5).

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

82

Page 85: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 1Sheet 4

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Estimate of Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Reported Paid Reported Paid Reported Paid Implied OpenLoss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Bornhuetter- Bornhuetter- Case Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Implied Open and IBNR Selected Implied

Fiscal Development Development Ferguson Ferguson Development as of as of and IBNR Claim Counts Ultimate Loss & ALAEYears Method Method Method Method Method 6/30/17 6/30/17 Claim Counts within Retention Loss & ALAE Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8a) (8b) (9) (10)

7/1/04-6/30/05 1,169,493 1,169,493 1,169,493 1,169,493 1,169,493 1,169,493 1,169,493 0 0 1,169,493 5287/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 725,117 725,117 725,117 725,117 725,117 725,117 0 0 725,117 3257/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 504,989 504,989 504,989 504,989 504,989 504,989 0 0 504,989 2207/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 345,237 345,237 345,237 345,237 345,237 345,237 0 0 345,237 1507/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 368,438 368,069 368,667 368,069 368,069 368,069 0 0 368,069 1577/1/09-6/30/10 727,187 728,641 727,069 728,283 726,460 726,460 726,460 0 0 726,460 3127/1/10-6/30/11 222,610 223,723 223,814 226,914 221,944 221,944 221,944 0 0 221,944 957/1/11-6/30/12 1,259,116 1,274,018 1,255,241 1,262,554 1,251,372 1,251,372 1,251,372 0 0 1,251,372 5477/1/12-6/30/13 295,738 301,682 299,934 315,428 293,279 292,457 290,541 4 4 320,457 1347/1/13-6/30/14 237,848 250,755 247,747 282,563 232,657 232,657 232,657 0 0 232,657 977/1/14-6/30/15 359,045 353,754 381,927 396,570 364,508 333,330 307,118 4 4 361,776 1587/1/15-6/30/16 1,150,351 1,064,174 1,047,196 956,810 1,363,499 888,018 752,144 7 7 1,047,196 4577/1/16-6/30/17 358,593 451,631 535,967 643,734 292,089 188,450 142,654 21 21 589,851 252

Total 7,723,392 7,761,650 7,831,800 7,926,360 7,858,714 7,247,593 7,037,795 36 36 7,864,618

7/1/17-6/30/18 767,200 321

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 2, Sheet 1, Column (3).Column (2) is from Exhibit 2, Sheet 3, Column (3).Column (3) is from Exhibit 2, Sheet 5, Column (5).Column (4) is from Exhibit 2, Sheet 6, Column (5).Column (5) is from Exhibit 2, Sheet 7, Column (6).Columns (6) and (7) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (8a) is from Exhibit 4, Sheet 1, Column (6).Column (8b) based on Column (8a) and individual claim detail.Column (9) based on Columns (1) through (8b) and actuarial judgment, fiscal year 7/1/17-6/30/18 is from Exhibit 3, Sheet 1, Column (5).Column (10) equals Column (9) / Number of Vehicles.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

83

Page 86: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Reported Loss & ALAE Development Method

Reported IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE Number of CostYears Retention 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Vehicles (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 2,000,000 1,169,493 1.000 1,169,493 2,213 5287/1/05-6/30/06 2,000,000 725,117 1.000 725,117 2,228 3257/1/06-6/30/07 2,000,000 504,989 1.000 504,989 2,294 2207/1/07-6/30/08 2,000,000 345,237 1.000 345,237 2,294 1507/1/08-6/30/09 2,000,000 368,069 1.000 368,069 2,349 1577/1/09-6/30/10 2,000,000 726,460 1.001 727,187 2,330 3127/1/10-6/30/11 2,000,000 221,944 1.003 222,610 2,330 967/1/11-6/30/12 2,000,000 1,251,372 1.006 1,259,116 2,286 5517/1/12-6/30/13 2,000,000 292,457 1.011 295,738 2,387 1247/1/13-6/30/14 2,000,000 232,657 1.022 237,848 2,387 1007/1/14-6/30/15 2,000,000 333,330 1.077 359,045 2,283 1577/1/15-6/30/16 2,000,000 888,018 1.295 1,150,351 2,289 5037/1/16-6/30/17 2,000,000 188,450 1.903 358,593 2,341 153

Total 7,247,593 7,723,392 30,011

Notes:Columns (1) and (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheet 5.

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

84

Page 87: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Reported Loss & ALAE Development Method

Section I - Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Reported Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE Number of CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Vehicles (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 555,682 1.000 555,682 2,213 2517/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 1.000 725,117 2,228 3257/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 1.000 504,989 2,294 2207/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 1.000 345,237 2,294 1507/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 1.000 368,069 2,349 1577/1/09-6/30/10 471,457 1.000 471,457 2,330 2027/1/10-6/30/11 221,944 1.000 221,944 2,330 957/1/11-6/30/12 899,067 1.001 899,966 2,286 3947/1/12-6/30/13 292,457 1.003 293,327 2,387 1237/1/13-6/30/14 232,657 1.008 234,516 2,387 987/1/14-6/30/15 333,330 1.037 345,679 2,283 1517/1/15-6/30/16 749,914 1.134 850,362 2,289 3717/1/16-6/30/17 188,450 1.624 305,981 2,341 131

Total 5,888,370 6,122,326 30,011

Section II - Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,000,000

Reported Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE Number of CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Vehicles (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 1,169,493 1.000 1,169,493 2,213 5287/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 1.000 725,117 2,228 3257/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 1.000 504,989 2,294 2207/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 1.000 345,237 2,294 1507/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 1.000 368,069 2,349 1577/1/09-6/30/10 726,460 1.000 726,460 2,330 3127/1/10-6/30/11 221,944 1.001 222,166 2,330 957/1/11-6/30/12 1,251,372 1.003 1,255,129 2,286 5497/1/12-6/30/13 292,457 1.008 294,668 2,387 1237/1/13-6/30/14 232,657 1.019 237,044 2,387 997/1/14-6/30/15 333,330 1.070 356,720 2,283 1567/1/15-6/30/16 888,018 1.255 1,114,540 2,289 4877/1/16-6/30/17 188,450 1.818 342,587 2,341 146

Total 7,247,593 7,662,218 30,011

Section III - Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $2,000,000

Reported Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE Number of CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Vehicles (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 1,169,493 1.000 1,169,493 2,213 5287/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 1.000 725,117 2,228 3257/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 1.000 504,989 2,294 2207/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 1.000 345,237 2,294 1507/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 1.000 368,069 2,349 1577/1/09-6/30/10 726,460 1.001 727,187 2,330 3127/1/10-6/30/11 221,944 1.003 222,610 2,330 967/1/11-6/30/12 1,251,372 1.006 1,259,116 2,286 5517/1/12-6/30/13 292,457 1.011 295,738 2,387 1247/1/13-6/30/14 232,657 1.022 237,848 2,387 1007/1/14-6/30/15 333,330 1.077 359,045 2,283 1577/1/15-6/30/16 888,018 1.295 1,150,351 2,289 5037/1/16-6/30/17 188,450 1.903 358,593 2,341 153

Total 7,247,593 7,723,392 30,011

Notes:Columns (1) and (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheets 1, 3, and 5.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

85

Page 88: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 3

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Paid Loss & ALAE Development Method

Paid IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE Number of CostYears Retention 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Vehicles (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 2,000,000 1,169,493 1.000 1,169,493 2,213 5287/1/05-6/30/06 2,000,000 725,117 1.000 725,117 2,228 3257/1/06-6/30/07 2,000,000 504,989 1.000 504,989 2,294 2207/1/07-6/30/08 2,000,000 345,237 1.000 345,237 2,294 1507/1/08-6/30/09 2,000,000 368,069 1.001 368,438 2,349 1577/1/09-6/30/10 2,000,000 726,460 1.003 728,641 2,330 3137/1/10-6/30/11 2,000,000 221,944 1.008 223,723 2,330 967/1/11-6/30/12 2,000,000 1,251,372 1.018 1,274,018 2,286 5577/1/12-6/30/13 2,000,000 290,541 1.038 301,682 2,387 1267/1/13-6/30/14 2,000,000 232,657 1.078 250,755 2,387 1057/1/14-6/30/15 2,000,000 307,118 1.152 353,754 2,283 1557/1/15-6/30/16 2,000,000 752,144 1.415 1,064,174 2,289 4657/1/16-6/30/17 2,000,000 142,654 3.166 451,631 2,341 193

Total 7,037,795 7,761,650 30,011

Notes:Columns (1) and (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheet 6.

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

86

Page 89: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 4

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Paid Loss & ALAE Development Method

Section I - Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Paid Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE Number of CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Vehicles (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 555,682 1.000 555,682 2,213 2517/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 1.000 725,117 2,228 3257/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 1.000 504,989 2,294 2207/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 1.000 345,237 2,294 1507/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 1.000 368,069 2,349 1577/1/09-6/30/10 471,457 1.000 471,457 2,330 2027/1/10-6/30/11 221,944 1.001 222,166 2,330 957/1/11-6/30/12 899,067 1.003 901,766 2,286 3947/1/12-6/30/13 290,541 1.010 293,454 2,387 1237/1/13-6/30/14 232,657 1.020 237,295 2,387 997/1/14-6/30/15 307,118 1.081 332,035 2,283 1457/1/15-6/30/16 614,040 1.259 773,271 2,289 3387/1/16-6/30/17 142,654 2.540 362,410 2,341 155

Total 5,678,572 6,092,947 30,011

Section II - Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,000,000

Paid Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE Number of CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Vehicles (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 1,169,493 1.000 1,169,493 2,213 5287/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 1.000 725,117 2,228 3257/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 1.000 504,989 2,294 2207/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 1.000 345,237 2,294 1507/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 1.000 368,069 2,349 1577/1/09-6/30/10 726,460 1.001 727,187 2,330 3127/1/10-6/30/11 221,944 1.003 222,610 2,330 967/1/11-6/30/12 1,251,372 1.008 1,261,404 2,286 5527/1/12-6/30/13 290,541 1.017 295,479 2,387 1247/1/13-6/30/14 232,657 1.044 242,824 2,387 1027/1/14-6/30/15 307,118 1.114 342,156 2,283 1507/1/15-6/30/16 752,144 1.368 1,029,286 2,289 4507/1/16-6/30/17 142,654 3.062 436,825 2,341 187

Total 7,037,795 7,670,677 30,011

Section III - Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $2,000,000

Paid Estimated IndicatedLoss & ALAE Age to Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Fiscal as of Ultimate Loss & ALAE Number of CostYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Vehicles (3) / (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 1,169,493 1.000 1,169,493 2,213 5287/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 1.000 725,117 2,228 3257/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 1.000 504,989 2,294 2207/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 1.000 345,237 2,294 1507/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 1.001 368,438 2,349 1577/1/09-6/30/10 726,460 1.003 728,641 2,330 3137/1/10-6/30/11 221,944 1.008 223,723 2,330 967/1/11-6/30/12 1,251,372 1.018 1,274,018 2,286 5577/1/12-6/30/13 290,541 1.038 301,682 2,387 1267/1/13-6/30/14 232,657 1.078 250,755 2,387 1057/1/14-6/30/15 307,118 1.152 353,754 2,283 1557/1/15-6/30/16 752,144 1.415 1,064,174 2,289 4657/1/16-6/30/17 142,654 3.166 451,631 2,341 193

Total 7,037,795 7,761,650 30,011

Notes:Columns (1) and (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheets 2, 4, and 6.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

87

Page 90: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 5

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Reported Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method

Expected Reported EstimatedEstimate Age to Loss & ALAE Ultimate Indicated

Fiscal of Ultimate Ultimate Unreported as of Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAEYears Loss & ALAE Factors Loss & ALAE 6/30/17 (3) + (4) Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

7/1/04-6/30/05 508,834 1.000 0 1,169,493 1,169,493 5287/1/05-6/30/06 525,602 1.000 0 725,117 725,117 3257/1/06-6/30/07 555,243 1.000 0 504,989 504,989 2207/1/07-6/30/08 569,679 1.000 0 345,237 345,237 1507/1/08-6/30/09 598,504 1.000 0 368,069 368,069 1577/1/09-6/30/10 609,098 1.001 608 726,460 727,069 3127/1/10-6/30/11 624,935 1.003 1,870 221,944 223,814 967/1/11-6/30/12 629,075 1.006 3,869 1,251,372 1,255,241 5497/1/12-6/30/13 673,948 1.011 7,477 292,457 299,934 1267/1/13-6/30/14 691,470 1.022 15,090 232,657 247,747 1047/1/14-6/30/15 678,538 1.077 48,596 333,330 381,927 1677/1/15-6/30/16 698,010 1.295 159,179 888,018 1,047,196 4577/1/16-6/30/17 732,427 1.903 347,517 188,450 535,967 229

Total 8,095,365 584,207 7,247,593 7,831,800

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 3, Sheet 1, Column (5).The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheet 5.Column (3) equals Column (1) x [1.0 - 1.0 / Column (2)].Column (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (6) equals Column (5) / Number of Vehicles.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

88

Page 91: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 6

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Paid Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method

Expected Paid EstimatedEstimate Age to Loss & ALAE Ultimate Indicated

Fiscal of Ultimate Ultimate Unpaid as of Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAEYears Loss & ALAE Factors Loss & ALAE 6/30/17 (3) + (4) Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

7/1/04-6/30/05 508,834 1.000 0 1,169,493 1,169,493 5287/1/05-6/30/06 525,602 1.000 0 725,117 725,117 3257/1/06-6/30/07 555,243 1.000 0 504,989 504,989 2207/1/07-6/30/08 569,679 1.000 0 345,237 345,237 1507/1/08-6/30/09 598,504 1.001 598 368,069 368,667 1577/1/09-6/30/10 609,098 1.003 1,823 726,460 728,283 3137/1/10-6/30/11 624,935 1.008 4,970 221,944 226,914 977/1/11-6/30/12 629,075 1.018 11,182 1,251,372 1,262,554 5527/1/12-6/30/13 673,948 1.038 24,887 290,541 315,428 1327/1/13-6/30/14 691,470 1.078 49,906 232,657 282,563 1187/1/14-6/30/15 678,538 1.152 89,453 307,118 396,570 1747/1/15-6/30/16 698,010 1.415 204,666 752,144 956,810 4187/1/16-6/30/17 732,427 3.166 501,080 142,654 643,734 275

Total 8,095,365 888,564 7,037,795 7,926,360

Notes:Column (1) is from Exhibit 3, Sheet 1, Column (5).The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are based on Exhibit 6, Sheet 6.Column (3) equals Column (1) x [1.0 - 1.0 / Column (2)].Column (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (6) equals Column (5) / Number of Vehicles.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

89

Page 92: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 2Sheet 7

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Case Development Method

CasePaid Outstanding Percent Percent Incurred

Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE of Ultimate of Ultimate But Not Estimated IndicatedFiscal as of as of Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Reported Ultimate Loss & ALAEYears 6/30/17 6/30/17 Reported Paid Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

7/1/04-6/30/05 1,169,493 0 100.0% 100.0% 0 1,169,493 5287/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 0 100.0% 100.0% 0 725,117 3257/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 0 100.0% 100.0% 0 504,989 2207/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 0 100.0% 100.0% 0 345,237 1507/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 0 100.0% 99.9% 0 368,069 1577/1/09-6/30/10 726,460 0 99.9% 99.7% 0 726,460 3127/1/10-6/30/11 221,944 0 99.7% 99.2% 0 221,944 957/1/11-6/30/12 1,251,372 0 99.4% 98.2% 0 1,251,372 5477/1/12-6/30/13 290,541 1,915 98.9% 96.3% 823 293,279 1237/1/13-6/30/14 232,657 0 97.8% 92.8% 0 232,657 977/1/14-6/30/15 307,118 26,212 92.8% 86.8% 31,178 364,508 1607/1/15-6/30/16 752,144 135,874 77.2% 70.7% 475,481 1,363,499 5967/1/16-6/30/17 142,654 45,797 52.6% 31.6% 103,639 292,089 125

Total 7,037,795 209,798 611,121 7,858,714

Notes:Columns (1) and (2) provided by City of Virginia Beach.The factors in Column (3) equal 1.0 / Exhibit 2, Sheet 1, Column (2).The factors in Column (4) equal 1.0 / Exhibit 2, Sheet 3, Column (2).Column (5) equals Column (2) x [1.0 - Column (3)] / [Column (3) - Column (4)].Column (6) equals Column (1) + Column (2) + Column (5).Column (7) equals Column (6) / Number of Vehicles.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

90

Page 93: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss Cost Method Summary

Smoothed Smoothed SmoothedSelected Selected Retained Estimated

Fiscal Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Number of UltimateYears Cost @ $1,000,000 Cost @ $2,000,000 Cost Vehicles Loss & ALAE

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

7/1/04-6/30/05 214 230 230 2,213 508,8347/1/05-6/30/06 220 236 236 2,228 525,6027/1/06-6/30/07 225 242 242 2,294 555,2437/1/07-6/30/08 230 248 248 2,294 569,6797/1/08-6/30/09 236 255 255 2,349 598,5047/1/09-6/30/10 241 261 261 2,330 609,0987/1/10-6/30/11 247 268 268 2,330 624,9357/1/11-6/30/12 253 275 275 2,286 629,0757/1/12-6/30/13 259 282 282 2,387 673,9487/1/13-6/30/14 266 290 290 2,387 691,4707/1/14-6/30/15 272 297 297 2,283 678,5387/1/15-6/30/16 278 305 305 2,289 698,0107/1/16-6/30/17 285 313 313 2,341 732,427

Total 30,011 8,095,365

7/1/17-6/30/18 at retention $2,000,000 321 2,390 767,200

SELECTED LOSS & ALAE COST AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Selected loss cost - Limited to $250,000 (from Exhibit 3, Sheet 2) 215

Indicated loss cost - Limited to $1,000,000 (from Exhibit 3, Sheet 3) 271Increased limits factor from $250K to $1M * 1.346 Indicated lost cost - Limited to $1,000,000 using industry $250K to $1M ILF 290Selected lost cost - Limited to $1,000,000 285

Indicated loss cost - Limited to $2,000,000 (from Exhibit 3, Sheet 4) 273Increased limits factor from $1M to $2M * 1.144 Indicated lost cost - Limited to $2,000,000 using industry $1M to $2M ILF 326Selected lost cost - Limited to $2,000,000 313

Notes:Columns (1) and (2) are the selected fiscal year 7/1/16-6/30/17 loss cost, detrended at an annual rate of 2.40% and 2.60% at retention $1M and $2M, respectively.Column (3) is the selected fiscal year loss cost at the respective historical retention.Column (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (5) equals Column (3) x Column (4).* Increased limits factors based on industry information.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

91

Page 94: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss Cost Method, Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Initial AdjustmentEstimated to FY2017 Adjustment Adjusted Trended

Fiscal Ultimate Benefit Number of to FY2017 Vehicles Indicated to FY2017Years Loss & ALAE Level Vehicles Exposure (3) x (4) Loss Cost Loss Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

7/1/04-6/30/05 555,682 1.000 2,213 1.000 2,213 251 3187/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 1.000 2,228 1.000 2,228 325 4057/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 1.000 2,294 1.000 2,294 220 2687/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 1.000 2,294 1.000 2,294 150 1807/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 1.000 2,349 1.000 2,349 157 1847/1/09-6/30/10 471,457 1.000 2,330 1.000 2,330 202 2327/1/10-6/30/11 221,944 1.000 2,330 1.000 2,330 95 1077/1/11-6/30/12 899,067 1.000 2,286 1.000 2,286 393 4347/1/12-6/30/13 320,457 1.000 2,387 1.000 2,387 134 1457/1/13-6/30/14 232,657 1.000 2,387 1.000 2,387 97 1037/1/14-6/30/15 361,776 1.000 2,283 1.000 2,283 158 1657/1/15-6/30/16 811,817 1.000 2,289 1.000 2,289 355 3627/1/16-6/30/17 334,196 1.000 2,341 1.000 2,341 143 143

Total 6,152,465 30,011 30,011

AVERAGES AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/04-6/30/05 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 240Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/06-6/30/07 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 217Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/08-6/30/09 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 215Selected 7/1/16-6/30/17 loss & ALAE cost: 215

Notes:Column (1) based on the reported and paid development methods from Exhibit 2, Sheet 2, Column (3)

and Exhibit 2, Sheet 4, Column (3), respectively, and actuarial judgment.Column (2) not used for this line of business.Column (3) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (4) not used in this study.Column (6) equals Column (1) x Column (2) / Column (5).Column (7) equals Column (6) x the selected loss & ALAE cost trend of 2.00%.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

92

Page 95: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 3

Initial AdjustmentEstimated to FY2017 Adjustment Adjusted Trended

Fiscal Ultimate Benefit Number of to FY2017 Vehicles Indicated to FY2017Years Loss & ALAE Level Vehicles Exposure (3) x (4) Loss Cost Loss Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

7/1/04-6/30/05 1,169,493 1.000 2,213 1.000 2,213 528 7027/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 1.000 2,228 1.000 2,228 325 4227/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 1.000 2,294 1.000 2,294 220 2797/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 1.000 2,294 1.000 2,294 150 1867/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 1.000 2,349 1.000 2,349 157 1897/1/09-6/30/10 726,460 1.000 2,330 1.000 2,330 312 3687/1/10-6/30/11 221,944 1.000 2,330 1.000 2,330 95 1107/1/11-6/30/12 1,251,372 1.000 2,286 1.000 2,286 547 6167/1/12-6/30/13 320,457 1.000 2,387 1.000 2,387 134 1487/1/13-6/30/14 232,657 1.000 2,387 1.000 2,387 97 1057/1/14-6/30/15 361,776 1.000 2,283 1.000 2,283 158 1667/1/15-6/30/16 1,071,913 1.000 2,289 1.000 2,289 468 4807/1/16-6/30/17 389,706 1.000 2,341 1.000 2,341 166 166

Total 7,689,190 30,011 30,011

AVERAGES AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/04-6/30/05 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 311Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/06-6/30/07 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 263Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/08-6/30/09 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 271Indicated 7/1/16-6/30/17 loss & ALAE cost: 271

Notes:Column (1) based on the reported and paid development methods from Exhibit 2, Sheet 2, Column (3)

and Exhibit 2, Sheet 4, Column (3), respectively, and actuarial judgment.Column (2) not used for this line of business.Column (3) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (4) not used in this study.Column (6) equals Column (1) x Column (2) / Column (5).Column (7) equals Column (6) x the selected loss & ALAE cost trend of 2.40%.

Loss Cost Method, Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,000,000

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

93

Page 96: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 4

Initial AdjustmentEstimated to FY2017 Adjustment Adjusted Trended

Fiscal Ultimate Benefit Number of to FY2017 Vehicles Indicated to FY2017Years Loss & ALAE Level Vehicles Exposure (3) x (4) Loss Cost Loss Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

7/1/04-6/30/05 1,169,493 1.000 2,213 1.000 2,213 528 7197/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 1.000 2,228 1.000 2,228 325 4327/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 1.000 2,294 1.000 2,294 220 2857/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 1.000 2,294 1.000 2,294 150 1907/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 1.000 2,349 1.000 2,349 157 1927/1/09-6/30/10 726,460 1.000 2,330 1.000 2,330 312 3737/1/10-6/30/11 221,944 1.000 2,330 1.000 2,330 95 1117/1/11-6/30/12 1,251,372 1.000 2,286 1.000 2,286 547 6227/1/12-6/30/13 320,457 1.000 2,387 1.000 2,387 134 1497/1/13-6/30/14 232,657 1.000 2,387 1.000 2,387 97 1057/1/14-6/30/15 361,776 1.000 2,283 1.000 2,283 158 1677/1/15-6/30/16 1,071,913 1.000 2,289 1.000 2,289 468 4807/1/16-6/30/17 405,112 1.000 2,341 1.000 2,341 173 173

Total 7,704,596 30,011 30,011

AVERAGES AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/04-6/30/05 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 316Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/06-6/30/07 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 266Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/08-6/30/09 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 273Indicated 7/1/16-6/30/17 loss & ALAE cost: 273

Notes:Column (1) based on the reported and paid development methods from Exhibit 2, Sheet 2, Column (3)

and Exhibit 2, Sheet 4, Column (3), respectively, and actuarial judgment.Column (2) not used for this line of business.Column (3) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (4) not used in this study.Column (6) equals Column (1) x Column (2) / Column (5).Column (7) equals Column (6) x the selected loss & ALAE cost trend of 2.60%.

Loss Cost Method, Loss & ALAE Limited to $2,000,000

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

94

Page 97: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 5

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Average Severity Method

Initial Adjustment Trended EstimatedEstimated to FY2017 Selected Indicated to FY2017 Ultimate Indicated

Fiscal Ultimate Benefit Ultimate Average Average Fitted Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAEYears Loss & ALAE Level Claim Counts Severity Severity Severity (3) x (6) Cost

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

7/1/04-6/30/05 555,682 1.000 112 4,961 6,292 5,960 667,508 301.67/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 1.000 99 7,324 9,107 6,079 601,830 270.17/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 1.000 106 4,764 5,807 6,201 657,272 286.57/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 1.000 87 3,968 4,742 6,325 550,248 239.97/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 1.000 71 5,184 6,074 6,451 458,034 195.07/1/09-6/30/10 471,457 1.000 59 7,991 9,179 6,580 388,232 166.67/1/10-6/30/11 221,944 1.000 59 3,762 4,236 6,712 395,997 170.07/1/11-6/30/12 899,067 1.000 76 11,830 13,061 6,846 520,300 227.67/1/12-6/30/13 320,457 1.000 61 5,253 5,686 6,983 425,961 178.57/1/13-6/30/14 232,657 1.000 66 3,525 3,741 7,123 470,093 196.97/1/14-6/30/15 361,776 1.000 79 4,579 4,764 7,265 573,941 251.47/1/15-6/30/16 811,817 1.000 60 13,530 13,801 7,410 444,623 194.27/1/16-6/30/17 334,196 1.000 61 5,511 5,511 7,559 458,389 195.8

Total 6,152,465 996 6,612,429

AVERAGES AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/04-6/30/05 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 7,110Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/06-6/30/07 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 6,964Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/08-6/30/09 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 7,559Selected 7/1/16-6/30/17 severity: 7,559

Notes:Column (1) based on the reported and paid development methods from Exhibit 2, Sheet 2, Column (3)

and Exhibit 2, Sheet 4, Column (3), respectively, and actuarial judgment.Column (2) not used for this line of business.Column (3) is from Exhibit 4, Sheet 1, Column (3).Column (4) equals Column (1) x Column (2) / Column (3).Column (5) equals Column (4) x the selected severity trend of 2.00%.Column (6) for all fiscal years is the selected fiscal year 7/1/16-6/30/17 severity,

detrended at an annual rate of 2.00%, and adjusted to the appropriate benefit level (if applicable).Column (8) equals Column (7) / Number of Vehicles.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

95

Page 98: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 3Sheet 6

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

FREQUENCY TREND

SEVERITY TREND

LOSS COST TREND

Notes:The selected frequency trend is 0.00%.The selected severity trend is 2.00%.The selected loss cost trend is 2.00%.The severity and loss cost trends (for both Indicated and Fitted lines) are shown at a $250,000 per occurrence limit.*The indicated line graphs are light gray for accident periods that are not yet mature enough to be reliable.

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

FREQ

UEN

CY

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SEVER

ITY

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

LOSS COST

FISCAL YEAR ENDINGIndicated Fitted

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

96

Page 99: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 4Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Estimate of Ultimate Claim Counts

Reported Reported Closed Implied OpenClaim Bornhuetter- Selected Claim Counts and IBNR

Fiscal Development Ferguson Ultimate Implied as of Claim CountsYears Method Method Claim Counts Frequency 6/30/17 (3) - (5)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

7/1/04-6/30/05 112 112 112 50.6 112 07/1/05-6/30/06 99 99 99 44.4 99 07/1/06-6/30/07 106 106 106 46.2 106 07/1/07-6/30/08 87 87 87 37.9 87 07/1/08-6/30/09 71 71 71 30.2 71 07/1/09-6/30/10 59 59 59 25.3 59 07/1/10-6/30/11 59 59 59 25.3 59 07/1/11-6/30/12 76 76 76 33.2 76 07/1/12-6/30/13 61 61 61 25.6 57 47/1/13-6/30/14 66 66 66 27.6 66 07/1/14-6/30/15 79 79 79 34.6 75 47/1/15-6/30/16 60 60 60 26.2 53 77/1/16-6/30/17 61 61 61 25.9 40 21

Total 996 996 996 33.2 960 36

Notes:Columns (1) and (2) are from Exhibit 4, Sheet 2, Columns (3) and (8), respectively.Column (3) based on Columns (1) and (2) and actuarial judgment.Column (4) equals Column (3) / Number of Vehicles x 1,000.Column (5) provided by City of Virginia Beach.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

97

Page 100: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 4Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Reported Claim Methods, excluding Claims Closed without Payment

Reported Estimated Trended ReportedClaim Counts Age to Ultimate Indicated to FY2017 Bornhuetter-

Fiscal as of Ultimate Claim Counts Number of Frequency Frequency Fitted FergusonYears 6/30/17 Factors (1) x (2) Vehicles (3) / (4) x 1,000 (5) x trend Frequency Method

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

7/1/04-6/30/05 112 1.000 112 2,213 50.6 50.6 28.5 1127/1/05-6/30/06 99 1.000 99 2,228 44.4 44.4 28.5 997/1/06-6/30/07 106 1.000 106 2,294 46.2 46.2 28.5 1067/1/07-6/30/08 87 1.000 87 2,294 37.9 37.9 28.5 877/1/08-6/30/09 71 1.000 71 2,349 30.2 30.2 28.5 717/1/09-6/30/10 59 1.000 59 2,330 25.3 25.3 28.5 597/1/10-6/30/11 59 1.000 59 2,330 25.3 25.3 28.5 597/1/11-6/30/12 76 1.000 76 2,286 33.2 33.2 28.5 767/1/12-6/30/13 61 1.000 61 2,387 25.6 25.6 28.5 617/1/13-6/30/14 66 1.000 66 2,387 27.6 27.6 28.5 667/1/14-6/30/15 79 1.000 79 2,283 34.6 34.6 28.5 797/1/15-6/30/16 60 1.000 60 2,289 26.2 26.2 28.5 607/1/16-6/30/17 60 1.010 61 2,341 25.9 25.9 28.5 61

Total 995 996 30,011 996

AVERAGES AT THE 7/1/16-6/30/17 LEVEL

Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/04-6/30/05 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 33.8Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/08-6/30/09 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 28.5Weighted average of fiscal years 7/1/12-6/30/13 through 7/1/15-6/30/16: 28.5Selected 7/1/16-6/30/17 frequency: 28.5

Notes:Columns (1) and (4) provided by City of Virginia Beach.The age to ultimate factors in Column (2) are derived from Exhibit 6, Sheet 7.The selected frequency trend used in Column (6) is 0.00%.Column (7) for all fiscal years is the selected fiscal year 7/1/16-6/30/17 frequency, detrended at an annual rate of 0.00%.Column (8) equals Column (1) + Column (4) x Column (7) x [1.0 - 1.0 / Column (2)] / 1,000].

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

98

Page 101: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 5Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Summary of Loss Data Valued as of June 30, 2017

Reported Open Unlimited Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Excess of $250K Loss & ALAE Excess of $1M Loss & ALAE Excess of $2MFiscal Claim Claim CaseYears Retention Counts Counts Paid Reserves Reported Paid Reported Paid Reported Paid Reported

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)

7/1/04-6/30/05 2,000,000 112 0 1,169,493 0 1,169,493 613,811 613,811 0 0 0 07/1/05-6/30/06 2,000,000 99 0 725,117 0 725,117 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/06-6/30/07 2,000,000 106 0 504,989 0 504,989 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/07-6/30/08 2,000,000 87 0 345,237 0 345,237 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/08-6/30/09 2,000,000 71 0 368,069 0 368,069 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/09-6/30/10 2,000,000 59 0 726,460 0 726,460 255,003 255,003 0 0 0 07/1/10-6/30/11 2,000,000 59 0 221,944 0 221,944 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/11-6/30/12 2,000,000 76 0 1,251,372 0 1,251,372 352,305 352,305 0 0 0 07/1/12-6/30/13 2,000,000 61 4 290,541 1,915 292,457 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/13-6/30/14 2,000,000 66 0 232,657 0 232,657 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/14-6/30/15 2,000,000 79 4 307,118 26,212 333,330 0 0 0 0 0 07/1/15-6/30/16 2,000,000 60 7 752,144 135,874 888,018 138,104 138,104 0 0 0 07/1/16-6/30/17 2,000,000 60 20 142,654 45,797 188,450 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 995 35 7,037,795 209,798 7,247,593 1,359,223 1,359,223 0 0 0 0

Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000 Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,000,000 Loss & ALAE Limited to $2,000,000 Loss & ALAE Limited to RetentionFiscal Case Case Case CaseYears Paid Reserves Reported Paid Reserves Reported Paid Reserves Reported Paid Reserves Reported

(12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23)

7/1/04-6/30/05 555,682 0 555,682 1,169,493 0 1,169,493 1,169,493 0 1,169,493 1,169,493 0 1,169,4937/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 0 725,117 725,117 0 725,117 725,117 0 725,117 725,117 0 725,1177/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 0 504,989 504,989 0 504,989 504,989 0 504,989 504,989 0 504,9897/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 0 345,237 345,237 0 345,237 345,237 0 345,237 345,237 0 345,2377/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 0 368,069 368,069 0 368,069 368,069 0 368,069 368,069 0 368,0697/1/09-6/30/10 471,457 0 471,457 726,460 0 726,460 726,460 0 726,460 726,460 0 726,4607/1/10-6/30/11 221,944 0 221,944 221,944 0 221,944 221,944 0 221,944 221,944 0 221,9447/1/11-6/30/12 899,067 0 899,067 1,251,372 0 1,251,372 1,251,372 0 1,251,372 1,251,372 0 1,251,3727/1/12-6/30/13 290,541 1,915 292,457 290,541 1,915 292,457 290,541 1,915 292,457 290,541 1,915 292,4577/1/13-6/30/14 232,657 0 232,657 232,657 0 232,657 232,657 0 232,657 232,657 0 232,6577/1/14-6/30/15 307,118 26,212 333,330 307,118 26,212 333,330 307,118 26,212 333,330 307,118 26,212 333,3307/1/15-6/30/16 614,040 135,874 749,914 752,144 135,874 888,018 752,144 135,874 888,018 752,144 135,874 888,0187/1/16-6/30/17 142,654 45,797 188,450 142,654 45,797 188,450 142,654 45,797 188,450 142,654 45,797 188,450

Total 5,678,572 209,798 5,888,370 7,037,795 209,798 7,247,593 7,037,795 209,798 7,247,593 7,037,795 209,798 7,247,593

Notes:Columns (1) through (23) provided by City of Virginia Beach.* Reported claim count excludes claims closed without payment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

99

Page 102: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 5Sheet 2

Fiscal Date of Occurrence ClaimYear Loss Number Status Paid Reported Retention Paid Reported

2005 4/11/2005 VA074720 Closed 863,811 863,811 2,000,000 863,811 863,811 2006 12/29/2005 VA075741 Closed 208,009 208,009 2,000,000 208,009 208,009 2006 1/19/2006 VA075766 * Closed 224,650 224,650 2,000,000 224,650 224,650 2010 6/28/2010 VA079404 Closed 505,003 505,003 2,000,000 505,003 505,003 2012 10/28/2011 VA080397 Closed 441,578 441,578 2,000,000 441,578 441,578 2012 4/24/2012 VA080678 * Closed 410,727 410,727 2,000,000 410,727 410,727 2016 3/1/2016 VA083403 * Open 388,104 388,104 2,000,000 388,104 388,104

Notes:* Claims have been combined on a per-occurrence basis.

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Unlimited Loss & ALAE Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Detail of Large Losses with Combined Loss & ALAE Greater than $100,000

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

100

Page 103: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 1

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of April 30, 2017

Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180

5/1/91-4/30/92 458,266 458,266 458,266 458,266 458,266 458,266 458,266 458,2665/1/92-4/30/93 453,385 453,385 453,385 453,385 453,385 453,385 453,385 453,385 453,3855/1/93-4/30/94 542,668 543,753 543,453 543,453 543,453 543,453 543,453 543,453 543,453 543,4535/1/94-4/30/95 177,098 177,248 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,0985/1/95-4/30/96 212,638 391,057 358,762 358,762 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,8175/1/96-4/30/97 318,805 581,945 522,807 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,6575/1/97-4/30/98 332,859 389,746 336,654 336,654 337,526 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,0905/1/98-4/30/99 207,629 366,181 352,165 377,665 376,463 376,463 376,463 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,4265/1/99-4/30/00 249,675 518,825 508,577 508,837 508,837 507,455 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,9555/1/00-4/30/01 327,372 479,279 479,497 447,582 446,718 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,2185/1/01-4/30/02 400,789 405,580 495,456 476,619 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,1075/1/02-4/30/03 454,181 494,587 564,415 786,159 761,491 761,491 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,8815/1/03-4/30/04 310,700 373,043 667,707 754,556 755,556 754,556 754,556 754,556 754,556 754,556 754,556 754,556 754,556 754,5565/1/04-4/30/05 284,752 612,694 672,792 636,992 588,055 588,055 588,055 588,055 588,055 562,555 562,555 537,055 537,0555/1/05-4/30/06 360,608 736,297 818,920 800,632 800,632 800,632 800,632 800,632 800,632 800,632 775,567 775,5675/1/06-4/30/07 255,864 396,457 381,866 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,6225/1/07-4/30/08 448,690 489,864 497,033 502,070 502,070 502,070 502,070 502,070 492,070 492,0705/1/08-4/30/09 297,369 306,153 320,234 320,334 320,234 320,234 320,234 320,234 320,2345/1/09-4/30/10 182,965 245,038 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,5385/1/10-4/30/11 290,002 547,684 547,374 534,874 512,717 512,717 512,7175/1/11-4/30/12 342,261 828,776 879,026 789,026 820,121 843,4735/1/12-4/30/13 255,935 308,733 368,453 304,471 304,4715/1/13-4/30/14 227,842 272,554 271,858 271,9595/1/14-4/30/15 237,647 298,772 301,4795/1/15-4/30/16 623,660 657,9105/1/16-4/30/17 224,410

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/92-4/30/93 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.002 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/94-4/30/95 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 1.839 0.917 1.000 0.992 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 1.825 0.898 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 1.171 0.864 1.000 1.003 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/98-4/30/99 1.764 0.962 1.072 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 2.078 0.980 1.001 1.000 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/00-4/30/01 1.464 1.000 0.933 0.998 0.943 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 1.012 1.222 0.962 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/02-4/30/03 1.089 1.141 1.393 0.969 1.000 0.767 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/03-4/30/04 1.201 1.790 1.130 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/04-4/30/05 2.152 1.098 0.947 0.923 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.957 1.000 0.955 1.0005/1/05-4/30/06 2.042 1.112 0.978 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.969 1.0005/1/06-4/30/07 1.549 0.963 0.934 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/07-4/30/08 1.092 1.015 1.010 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.980 1.0005/1/08-4/30/09 1.030 1.046 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/09-4/30/10 1.339 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/10-4/30/11 1.889 0.999 0.977 0.959 1.000 1.0005/1/11-4/30/12 2.421 1.061 0.898 1.039 1.0285/1/12-4/30/13 1.206 1.193 0.826 1.0005/1/13-4/30/14 1.196 0.997 1.0005/1/14-4/30/15 1.257 1.0095/1/15-4/30/16 1.055

All Years Weighted 1.448 1.093 1.029 1.006 0.996 0.979 1.000 0.999 0.997 0.997 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.00010 Years Weighted 1.376 1.045 0.952 0.993 1.004 0.967 1.000 0.998 0.995 0.995 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.0005 Years Weighted 1.403 1.049 0.928 1.004 1.010 1.000 1.000 0.996 0.991 0.992 0.992 1.000 1.000 1.0003 Years Weighted 1.129 1.070 0.899 1.005 1.015 1.000 1.000 0.992 1.000 0.985 0.988 1.000 1.000 1.000Industry 1.383 1.150 1.073 1.031 1.010 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Prior (4/30/15) 1.696 1.100 1.039 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

Age to Age 1.432 1.093 1.029 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Age to Ultimate 1.624 1.134 1.037 1.008 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

101

Page 104: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 2

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of April 30, 2017

Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $250,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180

5/1/91-4/30/92 458,266 458,266 458,266 458,266 458,266 458,266 458,266 458,2665/1/92-4/30/93 453,385 453,385 453,385 453,385 453,385 453,385 453,385 453,385 453,3855/1/93-4/30/94 542,668 543,453 543,453 543,453 543,453 543,453 543,453 543,453 543,453 543,4535/1/94-4/30/95 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,0985/1/95-4/30/96 211,333 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,8175/1/96-4/30/97 313,795 461,592 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,6575/1/97-4/30/98 332,846 336,026 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,0905/1/98-4/30/99 195,475 271,699 303,310 372,192 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,4265/1/99-4/30/00 187,663 497,066 506,566 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,9555/1/00-4/30/01 203,388 373,938 421,194 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,2185/1/01-4/30/02 220,885 398,112 412,627 420,439 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,1075/1/02-4/30/03 241,410 371,370 428,720 527,470 578,451 582,531 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,8815/1/03-4/30/04 209,760 360,806 624,394 754,556 754,556 754,556 754,556 754,556 754,556 754,556 754,556 754,556 754,556 754,5565/1/04-4/30/05 192,790 287,853 535,444 535,492 537,055 537,055 537,055 537,055 537,055 537,055 537,055 537,055 537,0555/1/05-4/30/06 253,316 433,972 480,091 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,5675/1/06-4/30/07 191,843 325,944 356,366 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,6225/1/07-4/30/08 317,412 446,592 492,033 492,070 492,070 492,070 492,070 492,070 492,070 492,0705/1/08-4/30/09 208,568 256,299 320,134 320,234 320,234 320,234 320,234 320,234 320,2345/1/09-4/30/10 120,488 245,038 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,5385/1/10-4/30/11 158,045 278,845 512,299 512,717 512,717 512,717 512,7175/1/11-4/30/12 162,421 562,474 600,121 603,559 612,731 843,4735/1/12-4/30/13 157,675 220,793 302,538 303,556 303,5565/1/13-4/30/14 156,222 270,858 270,858 270,9595/1/14-4/30/15 187,928 285,260 294,2835/1/15-4/30/16 183,415 579,3025/1/16-4/30/17 152,419

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/92-4/30/93 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/94-4/30/95 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 1.684 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 1.471 1.132 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 1.010 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/98-4/30/99 1.390 1.116 1.227 1.011 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 2.649 1.019 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/00-4/30/01 1.839 1.126 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 1.802 1.036 1.019 1.128 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/02-4/30/03 1.538 1.154 1.230 1.097 1.007 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/03-4/30/04 1.720 1.731 1.208 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/04-4/30/05 1.493 1.860 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/05-4/30/06 1.713 1.106 1.615 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/06-4/30/07 1.699 1.093 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/07-4/30/08 1.407 1.102 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/08-4/30/09 1.229 1.249 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/09-4/30/10 2.034 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/10-4/30/11 1.764 1.837 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/11-4/30/12 3.463 1.067 1.006 1.015 1.3775/1/12-4/30/13 1.400 1.370 1.003 1.0005/1/13-4/30/14 1.734 1.000 1.0005/1/14-4/30/15 1.518 1.0325/1/15-4/30/16 3.158

All Years Weighted 1.822 1.197 1.101 1.040 1.028 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.00010 Years Weighted 1.883 1.165 1.073 1.002 1.045 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005 Years Weighted 2.264 1.224 1.003 1.005 1.106 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0003 Years Weighted 2.152 1.117 1.004 1.006 1.168 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Industry 2.004 1.401 1.222 1.111 1.048 1.020 1.009 1.005 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.003Prior (4/30/15) 1.784 1.214 1.060 1.010 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

Age to Age 2.017 1.165 1.060 1.010 1.007 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Age to Ultimate 2.540 1.259 1.081 1.020 1.010 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

102

Page 105: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 3

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of April 30, 2017

Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,000,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180

5/1/91-4/30/92 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,4135/1/92-4/30/93 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,6065/1/93-4/30/94 1,292,668 1,293,753 1,293,453 1,293,453 1,293,453 1,293,453 1,293,453 1,293,453 1,293,453 1,293,4535/1/94-4/30/95 177,098 177,248 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,0985/1/95-4/30/96 212,638 391,057 358,762 358,762 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,8175/1/96-4/30/97 318,805 581,945 522,807 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,6575/1/97-4/30/98 332,859 389,746 336,654 336,654 337,526 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,0905/1/98-4/30/99 207,629 366,181 352,165 377,665 376,463 376,463 376,463 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,4265/1/99-4/30/00 249,675 518,825 508,577 508,837 508,837 507,455 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,9555/1/00-4/30/01 327,372 479,279 479,497 447,582 446,718 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,2185/1/01-4/30/02 400,789 405,580 495,456 476,619 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,1075/1/02-4/30/03 454,181 494,587 564,415 1,209,491 1,184,822 1,184,822 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,8815/1/03-4/30/04 310,700 373,043 1,417,707 1,504,556 1,505,556 1,504,556 1,504,556 1,504,556 1,504,556 1,504,556 1,504,556 1,504,556 1,504,556 1,504,5565/1/04-4/30/05 284,752 1,362,694 1,422,792 1,250,803 1,201,866 1,201,866 1,201,866 1,201,866 1,201,866 1,176,366 1,176,366 1,150,866 1,150,8665/1/05-4/30/06 360,608 907,297 818,920 800,632 800,632 800,632 800,632 800,632 800,632 800,632 775,567 775,5675/1/06-4/30/07 255,864 396,457 381,866 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,6225/1/07-4/30/08 448,690 489,864 497,033 502,070 502,070 502,070 502,070 502,070 492,070 492,0705/1/08-4/30/09 297,369 306,153 320,234 320,334 320,234 320,234 320,234 320,234 320,2345/1/09-4/30/10 182,965 245,038 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,5385/1/10-4/30/11 290,002 552,684 802,377 789,877 767,720 767,720 767,7205/1/11-4/30/12 342,261 1,020,353 1,070,604 980,604 1,011,699 1,195,7785/1/12-4/30/13 255,935 308,733 368,453 304,471 304,4715/1/13-4/30/14 227,842 272,554 271,858 271,9595/1/14-4/30/15 237,647 298,772 301,4795/1/15-4/30/16 1,373,660 796,0145/1/16-4/30/17 224,410

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/92-4/30/93 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/94-4/30/95 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 1.839 0.917 1.000 0.992 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 1.825 0.898 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 1.171 0.864 1.000 1.003 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/98-4/30/99 1.764 0.962 1.072 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 2.078 0.980 1.001 1.000 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/00-4/30/01 1.464 1.000 0.933 0.998 0.943 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 1.012 1.222 0.962 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/02-4/30/03 1.089 1.141 2.143 0.980 1.000 0.493 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/03-4/30/04 1.201 3.800 1.061 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/04-4/30/05 4.786 1.044 0.879 0.961 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.979 1.000 0.978 1.0005/1/05-4/30/06 2.516 0.903 0.978 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.969 1.0005/1/06-4/30/07 1.549 0.963 0.934 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/07-4/30/08 1.092 1.015 1.010 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.980 1.0005/1/08-4/30/09 1.030 1.046 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/09-4/30/10 1.339 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/10-4/30/11 1.906 1.452 0.984 0.972 1.000 1.0005/1/11-4/30/12 2.981 1.049 0.916 1.032 1.1825/1/12-4/30/13 1.206 1.193 0.826 1.0005/1/13-4/30/14 1.196 0.997 1.0005/1/14-4/30/15 1.257 1.0095/1/15-4/30/16 0.579

All Years Weighted 1.474 1.173 1.050 1.005 1.011 0.947 1.000 0.999 0.998 0.998 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.00010 Years Weighted 1.198 1.058 0.939 0.994 1.023 0.918 1.000 0.999 0.996 0.996 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.0005 Years Weighted 1.106 1.147 0.940 1.003 1.065 1.000 1.000 0.997 0.994 0.994 0.994 1.000 1.000 1.0003 Years Weighted 0.743 1.070 0.910 1.004 1.091 1.000 1.000 0.992 1.000 0.989 0.993 1.000 1.000 1.000Industry 1.423 1.171 1.086 1.040 1.015 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001Prior (4/30/15) 1.847 1.191 1.060 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

Age to Age 1.448 1.173 1.050 1.011 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Age to Ultimate 1.818 1.255 1.070 1.019 1.008 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

103

Page 106: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 4

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of April 30, 2017

Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $1,000,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180

5/1/91-4/30/92 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,4135/1/92-4/30/93 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,6065/1/93-4/30/94 1,292,668 1,293,453 1,293,453 1,293,453 1,293,453 1,293,453 1,293,453 1,293,453 1,293,453 1,293,4535/1/94-4/30/95 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,0985/1/95-4/30/96 211,333 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,8175/1/96-4/30/97 313,795 461,592 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,6575/1/97-4/30/98 332,846 336,026 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,0905/1/98-4/30/99 195,475 271,699 303,310 372,192 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,4265/1/99-4/30/00 187,663 497,066 506,566 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,9555/1/00-4/30/01 203,388 373,938 421,194 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,2185/1/01-4/30/02 220,885 398,112 412,627 420,439 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,1075/1/02-4/30/03 241,410 371,370 428,720 527,470 578,451 582,531 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,8815/1/03-4/30/04 209,760 360,806 1,374,394 1,504,556 1,504,556 1,504,556 1,504,556 1,504,556 1,504,556 1,504,556 1,504,556 1,504,556 1,504,556 1,504,5565/1/04-4/30/05 192,790 287,853 1,149,256 1,149,303 1,150,866 1,150,866 1,150,866 1,150,866 1,150,866 1,150,866 1,150,866 1,150,866 1,150,8665/1/05-4/30/06 253,316 433,972 480,091 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,5675/1/06-4/30/07 191,843 325,944 356,366 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,6225/1/07-4/30/08 317,412 446,592 492,033 492,070 492,070 492,070 492,070 492,070 492,070 492,0705/1/08-4/30/09 208,568 256,299 320,134 320,234 320,234 320,234 320,234 320,234 320,2345/1/09-4/30/10 120,488 245,038 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,5385/1/10-4/30/11 158,045 278,845 767,302 767,720 767,720 767,720 767,7205/1/11-4/30/12 162,421 754,052 791,699 795,137 804,309 1,195,7785/1/12-4/30/13 157,675 220,793 302,538 303,556 303,5565/1/13-4/30/14 156,222 270,858 270,858 270,9595/1/14-4/30/15 187,928 285,260 294,2835/1/15-4/30/16 183,415 717,4065/1/16-4/30/17 152,419

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/92-4/30/93 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/94-4/30/95 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 1.684 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 1.471 1.132 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 1.010 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/98-4/30/99 1.390 1.116 1.227 1.011 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 2.649 1.019 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/00-4/30/01 1.839 1.126 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 1.802 1.036 1.019 1.128 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/02-4/30/03 1.538 1.154 1.230 1.097 1.007 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/03-4/30/04 1.720 3.809 1.095 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/04-4/30/05 1.493 3.993 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/05-4/30/06 1.713 1.106 1.615 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/06-4/30/07 1.699 1.093 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/07-4/30/08 1.407 1.102 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/08-4/30/09 1.229 1.249 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/09-4/30/10 2.034 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/10-4/30/11 1.764 2.752 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/11-4/30/12 4.643 1.050 1.004 1.012 1.4875/1/12-4/30/13 1.400 1.370 1.003 1.0005/1/13-4/30/14 1.734 1.000 1.0005/1/14-4/30/15 1.518 1.0325/1/15-4/30/16 3.911

All Years Weighted 1.915 1.443 1.081 1.033 1.039 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.00010 Years Weighted 2.061 1.228 1.058 1.002 1.057 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005 Years Weighted 2.652 1.341 1.002 1.004 1.149 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0003 Years Weighted 2.414 1.117 1.003 1.005 1.215 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Industry 2.199 1.473 1.251 1.124 1.053 1.023 1.010 1.005 1.004 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.003Prior (4/30/15) 1.851 1.484 1.087 1.014 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

Age to Age 2.238 1.228 1.067 1.026 1.009 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Age to Ultimate 3.062 1.368 1.114 1.044 1.017 1.008 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

104

Page 107: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 5

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of April 30, 2017

Reported Loss & ALAE Limited to $2,000,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180

5/1/91-4/30/92 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,4135/1/92-4/30/93 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,6065/1/93-4/30/94 1,784,025 1,785,110 1,784,810 1,784,810 1,784,810 1,784,810 1,784,810 1,784,810 1,784,810 1,784,8105/1/94-4/30/95 177,098 177,248 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,0985/1/95-4/30/96 212,638 391,057 358,762 358,762 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,8175/1/96-4/30/97 318,805 581,945 522,807 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,6575/1/97-4/30/98 332,859 389,746 336,654 336,654 337,526 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,0905/1/98-4/30/99 207,629 366,181 352,165 377,665 376,463 376,463 376,463 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,4265/1/99-4/30/00 249,675 518,825 508,577 508,837 508,837 507,455 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,9555/1/00-4/30/01 327,372 479,279 479,497 447,582 446,718 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,2185/1/01-4/30/02 400,789 405,580 495,456 476,619 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,1075/1/02-4/30/03 454,181 494,587 564,415 1,209,491 1,184,822 1,184,822 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,8815/1/03-4/30/04 310,700 373,043 1,663,455 1,750,303 1,751,303 1,750,303 1,750,303 1,750,303 1,750,303 1,750,303 1,750,303 1,750,303 1,750,303 1,750,3035/1/04-4/30/05 284,752 1,372,794 1,461,703 1,250,803 1,201,866 1,201,866 1,201,866 1,201,866 1,201,866 1,176,366 1,176,366 1,150,866 1,150,8665/1/05-4/30/06 360,608 907,297 818,920 800,632 800,632 800,632 800,632 800,632 800,632 800,632 775,567 775,5675/1/06-4/30/07 255,864 396,457 381,866 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,6225/1/07-4/30/08 448,690 489,864 497,033 502,070 502,070 502,070 502,070 502,070 492,070 492,0705/1/08-4/30/09 297,369 306,153 320,234 320,334 320,234 320,234 320,234 320,234 320,2345/1/09-4/30/10 182,965 245,038 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,5385/1/10-4/30/11 290,002 552,684 802,377 789,877 767,720 767,720 767,7205/1/11-4/30/12 342,261 1,020,353 1,070,604 980,604 1,011,699 1,195,7785/1/12-4/30/13 255,935 308,733 368,453 304,471 304,4715/1/13-4/30/14 227,842 272,554 271,858 271,9595/1/14-4/30/15 237,647 298,772 301,4795/1/15-4/30/16 1,404,030 796,0145/1/16-4/30/17 224,410

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/92-4/30/93 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/94-4/30/95 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 1.839 0.917 1.000 0.992 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 1.825 0.898 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 1.171 0.864 1.000 1.003 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/98-4/30/99 1.764 0.962 1.072 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 2.078 0.980 1.001 1.000 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/00-4/30/01 1.464 1.000 0.933 0.998 0.943 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 1.012 1.222 0.962 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/02-4/30/03 1.089 1.141 2.143 0.980 1.000 0.493 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/03-4/30/04 1.201 4.459 1.052 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/04-4/30/05 4.821 1.065 0.856 0.961 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.979 1.000 0.978 1.0005/1/05-4/30/06 2.516 0.903 0.978 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.969 1.0005/1/06-4/30/07 1.549 0.963 0.934 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/07-4/30/08 1.092 1.015 1.010 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.980 1.0005/1/08-4/30/09 1.030 1.046 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/09-4/30/10 1.339 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/10-4/30/11 1.906 1.452 0.984 0.972 1.000 1.0005/1/11-4/30/12 2.981 1.049 0.916 1.032 1.1825/1/12-4/30/13 1.206 1.193 0.826 1.0005/1/13-4/30/14 1.196 0.997 1.0005/1/14-4/30/15 1.257 1.0095/1/15-4/30/16 0.567

All Years Weighted 1.469 1.203 1.046 1.004 1.011 0.950 1.000 0.999 0.998 0.998 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.00010 Years Weighted 1.189 1.058 0.933 0.995 1.022 0.921 1.000 0.999 0.996 0.996 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.0005 Years Weighted 1.093 1.147 0.940 1.003 1.065 1.000 1.000 0.997 0.994 0.995 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.0003 Years Weighted 0.731 1.070 0.910 1.004 1.091 1.000 1.000 0.992 1.000 0.989 0.993 1.000 1.000 1.000Industry 1.426 1.176 1.087 1.040 1.014 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001Prior (4/30/15) 1.847 1.191 1.062 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

Age to Age 1.469 1.203 1.054 1.011 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Age to Ultimate 1.903 1.295 1.077 1.022 1.011 1.006 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

105

Page 108: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 6

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of April 30, 2017

Paid Loss & ALAE Limited to $2,000,000

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180

5/1/91-4/30/92 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,413 568,4135/1/92-4/30/93 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,606 701,6065/1/93-4/30/94 1,784,025 1,784,810 1,784,810 1,784,810 1,784,810 1,784,810 1,784,810 1,784,810 1,784,810 1,784,8105/1/94-4/30/95 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,098 177,0985/1/95-4/30/96 211,333 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,817 355,8175/1/96-4/30/97 313,795 461,592 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,657 522,6575/1/97-4/30/98 332,846 336,026 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,090 336,0905/1/98-4/30/99 195,475 271,699 303,310 372,192 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,426 376,4265/1/99-4/30/00 187,663 497,066 506,566 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,955 506,9555/1/00-4/30/01 203,388 373,938 421,194 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,218 421,2185/1/01-4/30/02 220,885 398,112 412,627 420,439 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,107 474,1075/1/02-4/30/03 241,410 371,370 428,720 527,470 578,451 582,531 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,881 583,8815/1/03-4/30/04 209,760 360,806 1,620,142 1,750,303 1,750,303 1,750,303 1,750,303 1,750,303 1,750,303 1,750,303 1,750,303 1,750,303 1,750,303 1,750,3035/1/04-4/30/05 192,790 287,853 1,149,256 1,149,303 1,150,866 1,150,866 1,150,866 1,150,866 1,150,866 1,150,866 1,150,866 1,150,866 1,150,8665/1/05-4/30/06 253,316 433,972 480,091 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,567 775,5675/1/06-4/30/07 191,843 325,944 356,366 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,622 356,6225/1/07-4/30/08 317,412 446,592 492,033 492,070 492,070 492,070 492,070 492,070 492,070 492,0705/1/08-4/30/09 208,568 256,299 320,134 320,234 320,234 320,234 320,234 320,234 320,2345/1/09-4/30/10 120,488 245,038 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,538 245,5385/1/10-4/30/11 158,045 278,845 767,302 767,720 767,720 767,720 767,7205/1/11-4/30/12 162,421 754,052 791,699 795,137 804,309 1,195,7785/1/12-4/30/13 157,675 220,793 302,538 303,556 303,5565/1/13-4/30/14 156,222 270,858 270,858 270,9595/1/14-4/30/15 187,928 285,260 294,2835/1/15-4/30/16 183,415 717,4065/1/16-4/30/17 152,419

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/92-4/30/93 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/94-4/30/95 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 1.684 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 1.471 1.132 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 1.010 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/98-4/30/99 1.390 1.116 1.227 1.011 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 2.649 1.019 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/00-4/30/01 1.839 1.126 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 1.802 1.036 1.019 1.128 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/02-4/30/03 1.538 1.154 1.230 1.097 1.007 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/03-4/30/04 1.720 4.490 1.080 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/04-4/30/05 1.493 3.993 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/05-4/30/06 1.713 1.106 1.615 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/06-4/30/07 1.699 1.093 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/07-4/30/08 1.407 1.102 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/08-4/30/09 1.229 1.249 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/09-4/30/10 2.034 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/10-4/30/11 1.764 2.752 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/11-4/30/12 4.643 1.050 1.004 1.012 1.4875/1/12-4/30/13 1.400 1.370 1.003 1.0005/1/13-4/30/14 1.734 1.000 1.0005/1/14-4/30/15 1.518 1.0325/1/15-4/30/16 3.911

All Years Weighted 1.915 1.482 1.079 1.032 1.038 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.00010 Years Weighted 2.061 1.228 1.058 1.002 1.055 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005 Years Weighted 2.652 1.341 1.002 1.004 1.149 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0003 Years Weighted 2.414 1.117 1.003 1.005 1.215 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Industry 2.206 1.475 1.251 1.124 1.053 1.023 1.010 1.005 1.004 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.004Prior (4/30/15) 1.851 1.526 1.094 1.016 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

Age to Age 2.238 1.228 1.069 1.038 1.020 1.010 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Age to Ultimate 3.166 1.415 1.152 1.078 1.038 1.018 1.008 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

106

Page 109: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 6Sheet 7

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of April 30, 2017

Reported Claim Counts excluding Claims Closed with no Payment

Accident Evaluation Date in MonthsPeriod 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180

5/1/91-4/30/92 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 765/1/92-4/30/93 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 845/1/93-4/30/94 104 106 104 104 104 105 104 104 104 1045/1/94-4/30/95 80 81 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 805/1/95-4/30/96 109 112 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 1105/1/96-4/30/97 113 114 114 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 1135/1/97-4/30/98 104 107 104 104 104 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 1055/1/98-4/30/99 99 114 107 107 106 107 109 109 109 109 109 109 109 109 1095/1/99-4/30/00 128 106 107 108 108 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 1065/1/00-4/30/01 121 115 113 113 113 112 112 112 112 113 113 113 113 113 1135/1/01-4/30/02 143 133 135 134 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 1335/1/02-4/30/03 121 102 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 1075/1/03-4/30/04 112 117 116 116 117 116 116 116 116 116 116 116 116 1165/1/04-4/30/05 108 106 112 111 111 112 112 112 112 111 111 110 1105/1/05-4/30/06 114 108 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 1105/1/06-4/30/07 105 97 97 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 965/1/07-4/30/08 105 95 96 96 96 96 96 96 95 955/1/08-4/30/09 96 71 72 73 73 73 73 73 735/1/09-4/30/10 58 57 57 57 57 57 57 575/1/10-4/30/11 68 67 66 66 66 66 665/1/11-4/30/12 76 75 73 73 73 735/1/12-4/30/13 63 62 62 62 625/1/13-4/30/14 71 69 69 695/1/14-4/30/15 69 70 705/1/15-4/30/16 64 655/1/16-4/30/17 55

Accident Period 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

5/1/91-4/30/92 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/92-4/30/93 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/93-4/30/94 1.019 0.981 1.000 1.000 1.010 0.990 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/94-4/30/95 1.013 0.988 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/95-4/30/96 1.028 0.982 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/96-4/30/97 1.009 1.000 0.991 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/97-4/30/98 1.029 0.972 1.000 1.000 1.010 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/98-4/30/99 1.152 0.939 1.000 0.991 1.009 1.019 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/99-4/30/00 0.828 1.009 1.009 1.000 0.981 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/00-4/30/01 0.950 0.983 1.000 1.000 0.991 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.009 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/01-4/30/02 0.930 1.015 0.993 0.993 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/02-4/30/03 0.843 1.049 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/03-4/30/04 1.045 0.991 1.000 1.009 0.991 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/04-4/30/05 0.981 1.057 0.991 1.000 1.009 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.991 1.000 0.991 1.0005/1/05-4/30/06 0.947 1.019 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/06-4/30/07 0.924 1.000 0.990 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/07-4/30/08 0.905 1.011 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.990 1.0005/1/08-4/30/09 0.740 1.014 1.014 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/09-4/30/10 0.983 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/10-4/30/11 0.985 0.985 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/11-4/30/12 0.987 0.973 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/12-4/30/13 0.984 1.000 1.000 1.0005/1/13-4/30/14 0.972 1.000 1.0005/1/14-4/30/15 1.014 1.0005/1/15-4/30/16 1.016

All Years Weighted 0.947 1.005 0.998 1.001 0.998 1.002 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.00010 Years Weighted 0.939 1.001 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.0005 Years Weighted 0.994 0.991 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.998 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.0003 Years Weighted 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.996 1.000 1.000 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000Prior (4/30/15) 0.982 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Selected 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72 72-84 84-96 96-108 108-120 120-132 132-144 144-156 156-168 168-180 180-ULT

Age to Age 1.010 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000Age to Ultimate 1.010 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Notes:Not all averages are shown. Selected age to age factors are based on a review of all averages and actuarial judgment.

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

107

Page 110: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Exhibit 7

City of Virginia BeachAnalysis of Unpaid Loss & ALAE at June 30, 2017

Automobile LiabilityData as of June 30, 2017

Loss & ALAE Limited to Retention

Comparison of Expected Development to Actual Development

SECTION I - REPORTED LOSS & ALAE ActualChange in Expected Actual Selected Change in Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Expected Percent Reported Change in Minus Ultimate Loss Due to Due to TotalFiscal Selected Ultimate as of 6/30/15 Actual Reported Loss & ALAE as of Reported as of 6/15 - 6/17 Reported Expected & ALAE as of Change in Change in Change SinceYears Actual Adjusted 6/30/15 6/30/17 6/30/15 6/30/17 (2b) - (2a) 6/15 - 6/17 (4) - (5) 6/30/17 Exposures Experience Prior

(1a) (1b) (2a) (2b) (3a) (3b) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8a) = (1b) - (1a) (8b) = (7) - (1b) (8c) = (8a) + (8b)

7/1/04-6/30/05 1,169,493 1,169,493 1,169,493 1,169,493 100.0% 100.0% 0 0 0 1,169,493 0 0 07/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 725,117 725,117 725,117 100.0% 100.0% 0 0 0 725,117 0 0 07/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 504,989 504,989 504,989 100.0% 100.0% 0 0 0 504,989 0 0 07/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 345,237 345,237 345,237 100.0% 100.0% 0 0 0 345,237 0 0 07/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 368,069 368,069 368,069 100.0% 100.0% 0 0 0 368,069 0 0 07/1/09-6/30/10 726,460 726,460 726,460 726,460 99.9% 100.0% 0 0 0 726,460 0 0 07/1/10-6/30/11 221,944 221,944 221,944 221,944 99.8% 100.0% 0 0 0 221,944 0 0 07/1/11-6/30/12 993,243 993,243 957,294 1,251,372 99.5% 99.9% 294,078 28,352 265,727 1,251,372 0 258,129 258,1297/1/12-6/30/13 460,993 460,993 356,438 292,457 93.7% 99.8% (63,982) 101,220 (165,201) 320,457 0 (140,536) (140,536)7/1/13-6/30/14 300,439 300,439 236,439 232,657 78.7% 99.5% (3,782) 62,580 (66,362) 232,657 0 (67,782) (67,782)7/1/14-6/30/15 701,416 681,024 259,117 333,330 42.6% 93.7% 74,213 375,884 (301,670) 361,776 (20,392) (319,247) (339,640)7/1/15-6/30/16 762,419 730,200 0 888,018 0.0% 78.7% 888,018 574,651 313,367 1,047,196 (32,219) 316,997 284,7777/1/16-6/30/17 766,993 751,269 0 188,450 0.0% 42.6% 188,450 320,090 (131,640) 589,851 (15,725) (161,418) (177,143)

Total All Years 8,046,812 7,978,476 5,870,597 7,247,593 1,376,996 1,462,776 (85,780) 7,864,618 (68,336) (113,858) (182,194)Exclude FY16 & FY17 6,517,400 6,497,008 5,870,597 6,171,125 300,528 568,035 (267,507) 6,227,571 (20,392) (269,437) (289,829)

SECTION II - PAID LOSS & ALAE ActualChange in Expected Actual Selected Change in Ultimate Loss & ALAE

Expected Percent Paid Change in Minus Ultimate Loss Due to Due to TotalFiscal Selected Ultimate as of 6/30/15 Actual Paid Loss & ALAE as of Paid as of 6/15 - 6/17 Paid Expected & ALAE as of Change in Change in Change SinceYears Actual Adjusted 6/30/15 6/30/17 6/30/15 6/30/17 (2b) - (2a) 6/15 - 6/17 (4) - (5) 6/30/17 Exposures Experience Prior

(1a) (1b) (2a) (2b) (3a) (3b) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8a) = (1b) - (1a) (8b) = (7) - (1b) (8c) = (8a) + (8b)

7/1/04-6/30/05 1,169,493 1,169,493 1,169,493 1,169,493 100.0% 100.0% 0 0 0 1,169,493 0 0 07/1/05-6/30/06 725,117 725,117 725,117 725,117 100.0% 100.0% 0 0 0 725,117 0 0 07/1/06-6/30/07 504,989 504,989 504,989 504,989 100.0% 100.0% 0 0 0 504,989 0 0 07/1/07-6/30/08 345,237 345,237 345,237 345,237 100.0% 100.0% 0 0 0 345,237 0 0 07/1/08-6/30/09 368,069 368,069 368,069 368,069 99.9% 100.0% 0 0 0 368,069 0 0 07/1/09-6/30/10 726,460 726,460 726,460 726,460 99.8% 100.0% 0 0 0 726,460 0 0 07/1/10-6/30/11 221,944 221,944 221,944 221,944 99.7% 99.9% 0 0 0 221,944 0 0 07/1/11-6/30/12 993,243 993,243 851,797 1,251,372 98.1% 99.8% 399,575 126,259 273,316 1,251,372 0 258,129 258,1297/1/12-6/30/13 460,993 460,993 289,523 290,541 89.7% 99.7% 1,018 166,470 (165,451) 320,457 0 (140,536) (140,536)7/1/13-6/30/14 300,439 300,439 231,421 232,657 58.8% 98.1% 1,236 65,902 (64,666) 232,657 0 (67,782) (67,782)7/1/14-6/30/15 701,416 681,024 206,362 307,118 31.8% 89.7% 100,756 403,225 (302,469) 361,776 (20,392) (319,247) (339,640)7/1/15-6/30/16 762,419 730,200 0 752,144 0.0% 58.8% 752,144 429,448 322,696 1,047,196 (32,219) 316,997 284,7777/1/16-6/30/17 766,993 751,269 0 142,654 0.0% 31.8% 142,654 238,726 (96,072) 589,851 (15,725) (161,418) (177,143)

Total All Years 8,046,812 7,978,476 5,640,412 7,037,795 1,397,383 1,430,029 (32,646) 7,864,618 (68,336) (113,858) (182,194)Exclude FY16 & FY17 6,517,400 6,497,008 5,640,412 6,142,997 502,586 761,856 (259,270) 6,227,571 (20,392) (269,437) (289,829)

Notes:Columns (1a), (2a), and (3) are from Oliver Wyman's report using data valued as of June 30, 2015.Column (1b) has been adjusted for changes in exposures from the prior analysis.Column (2b) provided by City of Virginia Beach.Column (5) equals [Column (1b) - Column (2a)] x [Column (3b) - Column (3a)] / [1.0 - Column (3a)].Column (7) equals Exhibit 1, Sheet 4, Column (9).

Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.

108

Page 111: ACTUARIAL STUDY AS OF JUNE 30, 2017 - VBgov.com...and data evaluated as of June 30, 2015 in our prior report. Prior to making comparisons, we first make adjustments to prior selected

Oliver Wyman 100 North Tryon Street, Suite 3600 Charlotte, NC 28202 1 704 374 8413