adding value to national climate products at the local level: a pilot partnership program in tucson,...

Adding Value to National Adding Value to National Climate Products at the Local Climate Products at the Local

Level:Level:A Pilot Partnership Program in A Pilot Partnership Program in

Tucson, AZTucson, AZ

• David Brown, Michael David Brown, Michael Crimmins, and Gregg Crimmins, and Gregg GarfinGarfin

• CLIMAS Project, Institute CLIMAS Project, Institute for the Study of Planet for the Study of Planet EarthEarth

• University of ArizonaUniversity of Arizona“CAR-B-Q”

Overview – A Proposed New Overview – A Proposed New Partnership between the Partnership between the University of Arizona and Tucson University of Arizona and Tucson NWSFONWSFO• BackgroundBackground

– CSD Partnership ProgramCSD Partnership Program– Drought MonitorDrought Monitor

• Framework for CollaborationFramework for Collaboration– Operational expertise of NWSOperational expertise of NWS– Climate services expertise of CLIMASClimate services expertise of CLIMAS

• Examples of adding local value to Examples of adding local value to national/regional-scale climate productsnational/regional-scale climate products

• Inclusion of stakeholdersInclusion of stakeholders• Obstacles to partnership implementationObstacles to partnership implementation

Background – CSD Partnership Background – CSD Partnership ProgramProgram

• Climate Services Division of NWS:Climate Services Division of NWS:– Develops policy & requirements for climate Develops policy & requirements for climate

prediction productsprediction products– Solicits user feedback on climate products & Solicits user feedback on climate products &

servicesservices– Liaisons with other federal agencies, universities, Liaisons with other federal agencies, universities,

state climatologists, private sector, etc.state climatologists, private sector, etc.

• CSD Partnership ProgramCSD Partnership Program– ““To acquaint potential architects of local To acquaint potential architects of local

partnerships for climate services with the source partnerships for climate services with the source of climate prediction products (CPC) and the of climate prediction products (CPC) and the Headquarters team (CSD) that supports these Headquarters team (CSD) that supports these partnerships”partnerships”

The Partnership Program The Partnership Program ExperienceExperience

• 6 days at NOAA 6 days at NOAA Headquarters, 4 days at Headquarters, 4 days at Climate Prediction CenterClimate Prediction Center

• Meet one-on-one with Meet one-on-one with CSD and CPC personnelCSD and CPC personnel

• Participate in staff Participate in staff meetings, meetings, forecast forecast discussions,discussions, conference conference calls, etc.calls, etc.

• Develop plan for local Develop plan for local climate services climate services partnershippartnership

Mike & DaveMike & DaveCLIMAS Program CLIMAS Program

June 2003June 2003

““KLIMATE KAMP”KLIMATE KAMP”

Other Other “KLIMATE KAMP”“KLIMATE KAMP” ActivitiesActivities

Background – U.S. Drought Background – U.S. Drought MonitorMonitor

• Core CLIMAS Core CLIMAS architects of architects of potential NWS potential NWS partnership partnership (Brown, (Brown, Crimmins, Garfin) Crimmins, Garfin) have experience have experience adding local adding local value to national value to national productproduct

Framework for a Local Climate Framework for a Local Climate Services Partnership: CLIMAS & Services Partnership: CLIMAS & Tucson NWSTucson NWS• Monthly climate discussion based on Monthly climate discussion based on

CPC in-house monthly reviewCPC in-house monthly review– Focused on adding local knowledge and Focused on adding local knowledge and

value to coarser-scale climate productsvalue to coarser-scale climate products

• Draw upon operational expertise of Draw upon operational expertise of NWS, climate services expertise of NWS, climate services expertise of CLIMASCLIMAS

• Get key local users, “disseminators” of Get key local users, “disseminators” of climate information on the same pageclimate information on the same page

Structure of Monthly Climate Structure of Monthly Climate DiscussionDiscussion• Review of previous month’s CPC Review of previous month’s CPC

forecasts and verification productsforecasts and verification products

(No) Forecast Observation

Structure of Monthly Climate Structure of Monthly Climate DiscussionDiscussion

• Review of previous month’s CPC Review of previous month’s CPC forecasts and verification productsforecasts and verification products

• Discussion of current local climate & Discussion of current local climate & environmental conditionsenvironmental conditions

• Presentation of newly-released CPC Presentation of newly-released CPC (and other) outlooks(and other) outlooks

• Production of summary document, Production of summary document, Web material for stakeholdersWeb material for stakeholders

Types of climate products where Types of climate products where local knowledge & discussion can local knowledge & discussion can add valueadd value• Drought MonitorDrought Monitor


• Drought OutlookDrought Outlook



• Fire OutlookFire Outlook



• Fire OutlookFire Outlook

• Streamflow, Streamflow, snowpack, snowpack, reservoir levels, reservoir levels, etc.etc.

Types of climate products where Types of climate products where local knowledge & discussion can local knowledge & discussion can add valueadd value• Drought MonitorDrought Monitor• Drought Drought

OutlookOutlook• Fire OutlookFire Outlook• Streamflow, Streamflow,

Snowpack, Snowpack, Reservoir Reservoir Levels, etc.Levels, etc.

• Disease Disease IncidenceIncidence

West Nile Virus Activity as of March 1, 2004

Also, benefits to discussing CPC Also, benefits to discussing CPC outlooks with disparate user outlooks with disparate user groupsgroups• What do outlooks What do outlooks reallyreally mean? mean?

• Some users have Some users have little knowledge little knowledge of CPC forecast of CPC forecast toolstools– Tropical variability Tropical variability

(MJO, SSTs, etc.)(MJO, SSTs, etc.)– TeleconnectionsTeleconnections– Model outputModel output

Potential Participants in Monthly Potential Participants in Monthly Climate DiscussionClimate Discussion

• UA (CLIMAS) and Tucson (NWS)UA (CLIMAS) and Tucson (NWS)• Other UA Climate ScientistsOther UA Climate Scientists

– Atmospheric ScienceAtmospheric Science– Hydrology & Water Resources ResearchHydrology & Water Resources Research– Tree-ring Lab (Paleoclimatology)Tree-ring Lab (Paleoclimatology)

• Tucson/Pima County StakeholdersTucson/Pima County Stakeholders– USGS, UA Cooperative ExtensionUSGS, UA Cooperative Extension– Pima County Flood Control & DEQPima County Flood Control & DEQ– Local Media (TV & Newspaper)Local Media (TV & Newspaper)

Potential Monthly ProductsPotential Monthly Products

• Joint UA-NWS Press Joint UA-NWS Press ReleaseRelease– Press briefings also Press briefings also

possible as neededpossible as needed

• Web-based monthly Web-based monthly summarysummary– Could augment Could augment

current NWS monthly current NWS monthly climate “round-up”, climate “round-up”, CLIMAS monthly CLIMAS monthly climate outlooksclimate outlooks

Obstacles to ImplementationObstacles to Implementation

• NWS concerned about time NWS concerned about time commitmentcommitment– ““We already do this”We already do this”– Need support from regional (Salt Lake City) Need support from regional (Salt Lake City)

and national (Silver Spring) offices that this and national (Silver Spring) offices that this kind of activity is worthwhilekind of activity is worthwhile

• Ownership of idea and permanenceOwnership of idea and permanence– Partnership initiated by CLIMAS, but…Partnership initiated by CLIMAS, but…– ……ideally, want Tucson Climate Focal Point ideally, want Tucson Climate Focal Point

to take lead and continue activity in futureto take lead and continue activity in future

Status ReportStatus Report

• Had preliminary meeting in February 2004Had preliminary meeting in February 2004– CLIMAS (Brown, Crimmins, Garfin) and Tucson CLIMAS (Brown, Crimmins, Garfin) and Tucson

NWS (MIC, SOO; CFP absent)NWS (MIC, SOO; CFP absent)– Presented proposal to NWSPresented proposal to NWS– ““Agreement” to move towards Agreement” to move towards

implementationimplementation

• Brown designated as CPASW emissary to Brown designated as CPASW emissary to plea for feedbackplea for feedback

• April 2004 trial run tentatively plannedApril 2004 trial run tentatively planned

Thank YouThank You

p.s. The p.s. The high high

temperature temperature in Tucson in Tucson

today is 85 today is 85 FF

adding value to national climate products at the local level: a pilot partnership program in tucson,...

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