Addressing Energy and Environmental Impacts of Urban Transport

Anumita RoychowdhuryCentre for Science and EnvironmentUrban Mobility India 2010 New Delhi December 3-5, 2010

Growing toxic threat and struggles in cities

• Cities in grip of toxic model of growth: Intensive use of energy and materials leading to huge amounts of waste -- pollution.

• Major health impacts – toxic air causes one death per hour, … Warming impacts

• How can cities reduce public health impacts, achieve low carbon and energy footprints, urban community wellbeing and improve liveability of cities. This is a challenge for urban governance.

Where will the future growth take us?

Toxic air….

Source: Estimated based on CPCB dataSource: Estimated based on CPCB data

Half of the cities have critical level of PM10. NO2 rising in maHalf of the cities have critical level of PM10. NO2 rising in many citiesny citiesEven medium and small sized towns and cities are witnessing phenEven medium and small sized towns and cities are witnessing phenomenal spurt in omenal spurt in pollution as severe as or more than any mega city. pollution as severe as or more than any mega city.

PM10PM10 NO2NO2

Source: Based on NAMP data, CPCB, 1. World Bank 2004,

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Standard for residential areas

Action helps to protect public health

* * ***

Evidence of action: Health Benefits: Dip in PM10 leads to 13,000 less premature deaths and reduction in respiratory illness1

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Delhi has lost its gains. After a short respite pollution curve turns upward

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RSPMRSPM Nitrogen Nitrogen dioxidedioxide

Based on CPCB dataBased on CPCB data

More fog and smoggy days in Delhi

Source: Meteorological Watch Office, IMD,

Alveolar macrophage - biomarker of air pollution

Exposed group; Kolkatataxi driver

Increase in AM number

Larger AM – particle laden

Control area: Sundarbans

Source: CNCI

Emerging evidences of health impacts in India……

India and Asia’s unique public health challenge

• The Asiawide review of existing studies show that the estimated health effects are similar to those found in the western countries.

• Risk in south Asia more serious. Science has yet to assess our unique risk factors:

• Extremely high levels of particulates and mixture of pollutants-- the problem of exposure to multiple pollutants

• Impact of poverty: Socio economic variables are not included in health studies to influence public policy. Poor are more susceptible

Understand risk transition

• Double burden of disease. Modern or community risks increasing

• This has important implication for environmental monitoring strategies

Our vulnerability expected to grow. We need strong controls at the early stages of motorisation

Air quality standards are stricter today. This raises the bar of public health protection

Key highlight of the new national ambient air quality standards

• Uniform health based standards for all land-use classes. The current practice of setting separate standards for residential, sensitive and industrial areas discontinued.

• Annual sulphur dioxide and Nitrogen dioxide standards tightened

• Annual NO2 and SO2 standards for designated ecologically sensitive areas introduced

• PM10 standards for industrial areas aligned with the tighter standards for residential areas

• PM2.5 and Ozone standards introduced for the first time

• Standards for air toxics including benzene, benzo (a) pyrene, nickel, and arsenic) introduced. Standard for ammonia continues

Source: CAI ASIA 2008

Our cities in the pincer grip of high pollution, energy guzzling and green house gases…

Insidious link between local air pollution and climate

• Local pollution can enhance the warming effects….Eg, HC + NOx lead to regional ozone but also to background hemispheric ozone; CO becomes CO2 but consumes OH radicals along the way increasing CH4; Diesel PM increases PM10 & PM2.5 & ultrafine PM but also black carbon

• Warming can also enhance local public health impacts …Eg, each increase of 1 degree Celsius caused by carbon dioxide, can enhance PM and ozone build up. The resulting air pollution can lead thousands of additional deaths and many more cases of respiratory illness and asthma etc. (Mark

Jacobson 2008)

Vehicular pollution: High exposureVehicular emissions contribute to significant human exposure. Pollution concentration in our breathe is 3-4 times higher than the ambient air concentration. In densely-populated cities more than 50 – 60% of the population lives or works near roadside where levels are much higher. This is very serious in low income neighborhoods located close to roads.

Poor have a higher prevalence of some underlying diseases related to air pollution and proximity to roadways increases the potential health effects.

In three cities World Bank review found vehicles contributing an average 50% of the direct PM emissions and 70% of PM exposure.

The WHO report of 2005: Epidemiological evidences for the adverse health effects of exposure to transport related air pollution is increasing. Some of the deadliest air toxics, also carcinogens, are related to vehicular emissions. Blamed even for killing foetus.

Public transport users, walkers and cyclists are the most exposed groups – most of them are also poor.

Diesel Car (PM norm)

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Indian metros today (Euro IV). But rest of the country Euro III

Technology challenge Public policy fails to drive emission regulations to reduce exposure

in India

00.050.1

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Petrol cars (>1400cc) Diesel cars (<1600cc)

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PM (g

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135140145150155160165170175

Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

CO

2 (g

m/k

m)

Ironic: Rich use diesel subsidy to spew toxic emissionsBut regulations do not force diesel to meet the clean benchmark

NOxNOx PMPM

ToxicsToxics CO2CO2

The government willingly absorbs colossal revenue losses on account of ‘luxury’ use of diesel in cars while people are made to bear the disproportionate burden of its health costs. Emissions vs efficiency remains unresolved…….

Source ARAISource ARAI

Source: ARAI

Technology for co-benefits

Motorized two-wheelers have the smallest energy footprint (60-70 km/litre). But a new two-wheeler can emit more local air pollutant than a new car. Improve technology for co-benefits

CNG Bus Emissions in 2004

0.32

0.009 0.0070

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0.15

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0.25

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0.35

Bharat stage II DieselBus (500ppm max.

sulfur)

Bharat stage II DieselBus +CRT (50ppm

max. sulfur)

Bharat statge II CNGBus + 3 way catalyst

PM

em

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from

bus

es in

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mm

es p

er k

ilom

etreIn comparison with the warming In comparison with the warming potential of black carbon potential of black carbon emissions from the older diesel emissions from the older diesel fleet, CNG has been less fleet, CNG has been less warmingwarming…….. When black .. When black carbon is taken into account carbon is taken into account ----switch is carbon neutral switch is carbon neutral UptoUpto30% reduction in CO2 (e)30% reduction in CO2 (e)

CNG: Reduced warming CNG: Health benefits

Energy challenge: More car centric growth -more guzzling

Highest fuel consumption in the transport sector of large cities

In all size class of cities personal vehicles – cars and two-wheelers -- guzzle the maximum

Personal vehicles account for about 65 – 90% of the total carbon-dioxide emissions – linked directly with the amount of energy burnt by all vehicles in cities

Cities big in scale and density make pollution control and public transport more efficient…..But efficiency gains can be limited in Indian cities due to poor urban governance…..

Smaller cities need preventive strategies Source Based on Wilbur Smith 2008

Fuel consumption per day in different classes of cities

Vehicles and the heat trap

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Vehicle numbers

CO2 emissions

Source CSE (Data from SIM Air and Wilbur Smith

Number of motorised vehicles co-relate strongly with CO2 emissionsCities with less vehicles have less CO2 emissions

The great guzzle …..Challenge of fuel efficiency

Transport energy demand has grown at 1.2 times the GDP growth rate. Transport sector uses up nearly 40 per cent of total consumption of oil. Fuel consumption by vehicles in 2035 could be six times that of the 2005 level.

Urban car travel consumes nearly twice as energy on average as average urban bus travel; 3.7 times more than the typical light rail or tram; 6.6 times more than average electric urban electric train

By 2030-31 on an average Indians will travel thrice as many kilometers as they traveled during 2000-01.

Shift of freight from railways to trucks: Share of railways down to 26%. Transport energy demand in India would grow even faster if all highways planned are constructed. (WEO 2006)

Cars threaten energy security and climate

Future CO2 increase from transport will be dominated by cars and trucks. (IEA)

Shift from small to big…

Shift towards high end cars expected at a faster rate. SUV market is expected to develop rapidly in future. -- A 10% increase in large vehicle sales roughly result in 2 per cent drop in fleet fuel economy... Adds demand of 17,500 barrels of oil annually. (ICCT)

What are our opportunities?…….Small and low powered cars, two-wheelers are our advantage so

far. How do we protect the baseline….

Source: ICCT 2009

Potential in the market…

Challenge of mobility crisis

…… an increasing share of our daily trips are being made by cars that occupy more road space, carry fewer people, pollute more, guzzle more fuel. They edge out pedestrians, bicycles, cycle rickshaws and buses………..

Positioning the debate• Urban poor has created the

sustainable ecological space in cities.

• But cars taking over that space. Making mitigation difficult

• We have built walkable cities: – TRIPP: 30-60% trips carbon neutral.

Logical in cities where average distance of 85% of travel trips is less than 10 km; nearly 40- 45% is less than 5 km.

• Crucial transition from walking cities to auto cities: Poor remains captive users of sustainable modes. But the urban majority moving away from this choice ….

Modal split for passenger transport in selected countries

Source: 1. First Review of Available Data: Modal Split in Different Countries (2000), Fachgebiet Verkehrsplanung und Verkehrstechnik Prof. Dr.-Ing. Manfred Boltze Institutfür Verkehr Fachbereich 13 Bauingenieurwesen und Geodäsie

2. CO2 EMISSIONS FROM PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN INDIA: 1950-51 TO 2020-21 Sanjay Kumar Singh, IIM Lucknow

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

UK (1998)

France (1998)

Germany (1998)

United States (1997)

Japan (1997)

India* (2001)

Automobile Buses Rail Air*India Note 1: automobile include cars, two wheelers, IPT. Note 2: Passenger mobility in India relies heavily on rail and road. Passenger travel by air and water is negligible in comparison to rail and road.

Mobility transitionMobility transition

Source: RITES 2008

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India at the risk of losing its strength

Nation-wide increase in passenger mobility can change the modal split in favour of personal vehicles.

Nationally the share of public transport may drop from 75.7% in 2001-02 to 44.7% in 2030-31.

Only integrating the needs of the urban majority in the planning can help to reverse this trend

Delhi: Sustainable modes under stress

• Emerging policies…. National Urban transport Policies….Integrated energy Policy, National Climate Action Policy…..

• Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission is a reform based funding scheme. Mandates reforms in cities. This infrastructure investment could have leveraged NUTP principles. Reform agenda includes:– Set up Unified Metropolitan Transport Authority for integrated

planning– Implement parking policy as a demand management policy– Create public transport fund through higher taxes on personal cars,

parking revenue, advertisement revenue, road pricing strategies,property tax etc.

Some examples from other cities: Delhi: Air Ambience Fund from environment cess on diesel fuel; Surat: dedicated urban transport fund from parking revenue, property tax, etc.

– Implement non-motorised transport policy– Future funding to be linked to comprehensive Mobility plan for

cities….

Whither policy?

But…..

Analysis of its projects sanctioned for transport until the beginning of this year shows that the investment is heavily biased towards road infrastructure. More than 71% of the transport related projects are road related projects.

Barely any investment in cycling and walking infrastructure.

Urban transport projects - segment wise distribution

71%

14%

4%11%

Road Related Projects Mass Transit Parking Other transport

Funding ignores sustainable modes

Source: CSE

Transport funds largely tied with only high end transport solutions

Delhi: Since 2001-02, upsurge in fund allocation for transport in annual budget plans. But of late the share allocated for public transport has declined.

Change the practice

Percentage share of Public Transport in Total Transport Allocation

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Others

Public Transport

Percentage share of public transport in total transport allocation

Percentage allocation to Transport

15.16

19.13

14.81

23.34

26.76 27.1925.22

29.3331

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Source: CSE

How do we leverage our advantage…

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CO2 emissionsNMT share

Cities with higher walking and cycling have significantly low CO2 levelsStudies show a nominal increase of walk trips by 5% can cut CO2 by at least 10% (CAI)

Source CSE

Protect zero emissions modes: Improve walkways

Legislate right to walk: Should we have comprehensive road users act?

Enforce pedestrian guidelines for new roads as well as rebuild, beautification of existing roads –transform the entire city network

Make pedestrian plans mandatory to infrastructure funding. Public transport plan needs linkage with pedestrian plan

Reform and mandate guidelines for pedestrian infrastructure

Urban local bodies must conduct walkabilityand safety audits

Need zero tolerance policy for accidents

Involve communities on decisions on use of road space

Need pedestrian network plan

Adopt traffic volume reduction plan Source: CSE

Take the busTake the bus…………Bus transport can make a big difference…• BANGALORE: An increase in bus share from 62% to 80% saves

equal to 21% of the fuel consumed in the base case. Leads to 23 per cent reduction in total vehicles and frees-up road space equivalent to taking off nearly 418,210 cars from roads. CO2 emissions can drop by 13 per cent. PM can drop by 29 per cent and NOx 6 per cent.

• DHAKA: An increase in bus share from 24% to 60% saves fuel equal to 15 per cent of the fuel consumed in the base case. Frees up road space equivalent to removing 78,718 cars from the roads. CO2 emissions drops by 9 per cent. PM can drop by 13 per cent and NOxless than 1 per cent.

• COLOMBO: A increase in bus share from 76% to 80% can save 104,720 tonnes of oil equivalent, or 3% of the fuel consumed in the baseline case. This means 5% reduction in total vehicles and freeing up of roadspace equivalent to removing 62,152 cars.

Reallocate road space. More space to low carbon and clean modes and majority commuters

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DTC, Delhi BEST, Mumbai CSTC, Kolkata MTC, Chennai

1990-91. 2006-07.

Falling load factorDespite the growing demand buses are carrying below their capacity

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-7.7

-1.7-3.5

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The Annual Average Growth in % in STU Bus Fleet (2000 to 2007)

Other countries have begun to assess co-benefits of their transportation projects as a measure of

success

Fuel savings and CO2 savings of a BRT corridor in Mexico City

ADB 2009

Three-wheelers and cycle rickshaws are part of the solution….High share of short trips make para transit convenient and affordable. Even buses are not convenient for short distances.

But most cities have harsh policies against them

Delhi is reorganising this sector:-- All three-wheeler drivers to get public service vehicle badge and smart cards. -- GPS connectivity to improve the meters and compliance. -- In-use vehicle fitness and emission testing systems --Integrate with mass transit system.

Cycle rickshaws policy soon

Informal intermediate transport at risk from high end transport

Buses taxed higher than cars……….

2,90,431

30,521

2,725

5.69

2.39

0.44

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Tax per vehicle-km

Annual tax

If not corrected and bus fares are raised, a substantial public transport ridership can be lost to two wheelers that have a running cost of a mere Re 1/km

This must be rationalised….

Poor understanding of restraint measures

• Insatiable demand for land for parking: Parking space needed for the car fleet in Delhi is 10% city’s urbanised area. Delhi’s forest cover -- is 11.5 %.

• Inequitous use of land: A car is allotted 23 sq m for parking. A poor family is given 18 sqm of land under low cost housing scheme.

• Free to a pittance for parking: Willingness of the car owners to pay for parking is Rs 5-10/hour. But if pegged to the cost of providing parking it should be Rs 30-40/hour. --Hidden subsidy for the car owners….

Travel and CO2 emissions

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North Americans(mainly by cars &

planes)

Brazilians (cars/bus) Tanzanians (mainlyby foot/bus/cycle)

Indians (mainly byfoot/bus/cycle)

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Average travel per day

Transport related CO2emissions in tons a year

Source: WBCSD and MOUD data

Transport infrastructure (roads, railway, airports) locks up enormous amount of carbon

Transport infrastructure and per capita CO2 emissions in different countries

Our cities need upscaled transitionAvoid future emissions

Shift to sustainable modes of mobilityThink people

Mobility needs of the poor and urban majority are the defining parameters for mobility planningInclusive planning can protect public transport, para-transit, walking and cycling – the solutions for climate and public healthKeep jobs and home close: Build compact cities to reduce distances, demand for travel and vehicle usage. Integrate land-use planning

Leapfrog technology to reduce exposure to toxic emissions

Fund the transition: Need tax measures to allocate resources efficiently for the larger good. Rationalise transportation related taxes

Design travel demand management measures – Parking policy is amongst the first steps

Need institutional measures for integrated planning and implementation

Towards livable cities……

Thank You