adrian j. ebsary – online community specialist …...technology – open education • open...

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The future of higher education

Adrian J. Ebsary – Online Community SpecialistUniversity of Ottawa | Université d’Ottawa

Can we predict the future?

• “In both parametric and nonparametric tests, individual analysts fail to exhibit consistent differences in forecasting ability.”

O’Brien, P. C. Journal of Accounting Research. 1990

Can we predict the future?

• Futurist predictions in 1997 book for the year 2025– Roughly 66% accuracy for ‘on track’ predictions– Similar to 68% accuracy from futurists in 1967

predicting 30 years later

Hines, A. World Future Review. 2009

What makes a good futurist?

Forecast Accuracy

Experience(Ability)

Employer size(Resources)

Number of firms and industries followed(Complexity)

Clement, M.B. Journal of Accounting and Economics. 1999


• The best forecasters of world politics:– Scored higher on intelligence and political knowledge– More open-minded cognitive styles– Benefited from probability training– Profited from better working environments & teams– Spent more time deliberating and updating forecasts

Mellers, B. et al. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied. 2015


• Exceptionalism lies in quantitative trend forecasting– Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns– Certain kinds of progress are exponential, not linear

http://bit.ly/KurzweilBigThink

What do futurists do?

• Illustration by David Plunkert

Analytical Framework for Futurism

• Framing– What’s happening right now?

• Scanning– What do the trends tell us about tomorrow?

• Describing– What are some potential futures?

• Visioning– How do we want to shape the future?

• Planning– What is our roadmap for shaping the future?

http://profuturists.org/futurists

Framing - Will the change matter?

• Pew Research Center survey of 1,021 “Internet experts” on the future of higher education

http://bit.ly/FutureHighEd

Environmental Scanning

Environmental Scanning: What it is, how to do it… Thinking Futures. 2009

http://bit.ly/EnviroScan

Environmental Scanning with STEEP

• STEEP =– Society– Technology– Environmental– Economy– Political

Society

Society – massification continues

• Demand for higher education is rising

Ho Mok, et al. Higher education governance in crisis: a critical reflection on the massification of higher education, graduate employment and social mobility. Journal of Education and Work. 2015

http://bit.ly/EnviroScan

Society – Vocational focus for learning

• “Now, this model of liberal arts education is under threat. Students come to college hell-bent on learning something that will make them employable.”

• “This is an understandable response to the economic uncertainties of our age, and to the extraordinary cost of an education […].”

• “Whether eighteen-year-olds are experiencing this economic anxiety themselves, or whether it is being hammered into them by their parents, I don’t know.”

http://bit.ly/whatishigheredfor

Society – Teaching & research

• Are teaching and research compatible?

http://bit.ly/CAPsurvey2007

Society - Mature Enterprise Syndrome

• “…American higher education has become what, in the business world, would be called a mature enterprise: increasingly risk averse, at times self-satisfied, and unduly expensive.”

• “Without serious self-examination and reform, institutions of higher education risk falling into the same trap [as other failed industries], seeing their market share substantially reduced and their services increasingly characterized by obsolescence.”

Spellings Report. US Department of Education. 2006

http://bit.ly/SpellingsReport

Society - Mature Enterprise Syndrome

• “It is harder to innovate in a mature enterprise.”

White, et al. Innovations in Higher Education: Implications for the Future. New Directions for Higher Education

http://bit.ly/NewInnovationsHigherEd

Society - Questions

• Will higher education innovate or lose to competitors?

• Will demand for higher education continue to rise?

• Will certain countries choose to change the relationship between teaching and research?

Technology

Technology – Open Education

• Open educational resources (1-5 years)– Students need lower cost content– Industry needs to get more flexible with product offerings– Intellectual property law needs to progress

Mintz, S. The Future of Higher Education. InsideHigherEd.com

http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEd

Technology – 3D Printing

• 3D Printing (1-5 years)– New options for personalization reduce demand for

non-customized in-store goods– Gateway to more sustainable production– Become a valuable tool (or toolmaker) for researchers

across fields

http://bit.ly/3Dprintfuture

Technology – Virtual Reality

• Virtual and augmented reality (1-5 years)– Provided viable distance-learning options– Help scale delivery of classroom experiences

Technology - Gamification

• Gamification, experimental teaching styles (1-5 years)



Technology – Modular Curricula

• Personalized curricula, modularization & hybrid degrees (5-10 years)– Help students adapt to changes in job

market signals– Modularizing curricula provides clearer

metrics for employers with unique needs



http://bit.ly/FastCompanyFuture

Hullinger, J. This is the future of college. Fast Company. 2015

Technology – Analytics

• Learning analytics enabled by more sensors (5-10 years)– “These tools offer innovative ways to predict student

success, measure achievement of learning outcomes, and drive improvements in admissions, pedagogy, and student support services.”



Technology – Analytics

• Learning analytics enabled by more sensors (5-10 years)– “And newer endeavors […] can alert students to toxic

course combinations and provide an early warnings of at-risk behavior to faculty, advisers, and the students themselves.”



Technology - Biometrics

• Biometrically-verified online identity systems (5-10 years)– Physical traits & behavioural signs inform learning analytics– Users want to protect valuable digital identities– No more passwords

Technology – The Global Brain

• Collective knowledge mapping with Global Brain (10-20 years)– Mapping known vs. unknown reveals opportunities– Contributions factor into learning analytics

O’Reilly, T. Towards a Global Brain. GreenBiz.com

http://bit.ly/GlobalBrainTim

Technology - Questions

• How will these technologies facilitate distance learning?

• In what areas of education will distance learning become the norm?

• Will new teaching technologies allow fewer teachers to engage with more students?

Environmental

Environmental – Climate Change

• “… things will start going haywire in the tropics at around the year 2020, and in [places further from the equator] around 2047.”

Eric Zuesse, Huffington Post, about:Mora, C. et al. The Projected timing of climate departure from recent variability. 2013

Environmental – Climate Change

• Higher Ed Climate Adaptation Committee findings:

“1. Have a critical role to play in preparing society to adapt to the impacts of climate disruption by providing research and education around adaption strategies and science.”

“7. Should aim to identify adaptation strategies that also contribute to mitigation efforts.”

Environmental – Questions

• Could restrictions on energy usage discourage displacement and encourage online learning?

• Will the economic impacts of climate change reduce enrollment capacity for traditional institutions?

Economy

Economy – The Future of Work

Störmer, et al. The future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 2030.

http://bit.ly/FutureOfWork2030

• Disruptions that could radically change the future of work

Economy - Technological Job Displacement• “Will networked, automated, artificial intelligence (AI)

applications and robotic devices have displaced more jobs than they have created by 2025?”– Nearly 2,000 experts surveyed:

48%

YES52%

NOhttp://bit.ly/PewJobsAndRobots


applications and robotic devices have displaced more jobs than they have created by 2025?”– Team NO major arguments:

• Tech displaces some work while creating more• We invent new types of work

http://bit.ly/PewJobsAndRobots


applications and robotic devices have displaced more jobs than they have created by 2025?”– Team NO major arguments:

• Tech displaces some work while creating more• We invent new types of work

– Team YES major arguments:• Blue-collar work first, then white-collar• Might create new jobs, but promote inequality



applications and robotic devices have displaced more jobs than they have created by 2025?”– Both teams agree:

• Our education system is not preparing workers!


Economy - Technological Job Displacement• “We may lose as much as 25% of all

‘simple’ jobs because of smart machines, AI, robotics and automation, e.g., data input clerks, analysts (some), check-out clerks, cab drivers, etc. In the next 25 years, that loss may be as much as 50% of all jobs as ‘machines’ get even better.”

Gerd Leonhard (@gleonhard)in Rudy De Waele's (@mtrends) Shift 2020

Economy - Technological Job Displacement• “To suggest that technology is going

to somehow create completely new job categories capable of absorbing millions of workers displaced from traditional jobs is pure fantasy.”

Martin Ford, The Lights in the Tunnel

Economy – Zero Hour Contracts

• Flexible contracts with few guarantees for the employee• Huge benefits for employer, fewer for employee

Economy - Questions

• How will job loss due to automation compete with job creation?

• Will zero-hour contracts receive government regulations to prevent employee abuses?

Politics

Image: http://thepolitic.org/understanding-politics/

Politics – Funding Sources

• Worldwide trends influencing how we finance higher ed:

Increasing demand

Increasingly knowledge-based economies

Increasing Globalization

Increasing liberalization of economies(Increasing privatization of public education)

http://bit.ly/UNESCOtrends

Politics – Funding Sources

• Worldwide trends influencing how we finance higher ed:

Increasing demand Decreasing revenue, increasing costs

Increasingly knowledge-based economies

Increasing Globalization

Increasing cost per student(rising faster than inflation)

Government-tax revenues can’t keep up with cost

Increasing reliance on non-tax revenues

Increasing importance of financial assistance

Increasing liberalization of economies(Increasing privatization of public education)

http://bit.ly/UNESCOtrends

Politics – Institutional Specialization

Politics – Incentivize Student Outcomes

• Should university funding be linked to lifetime career outcome for graduates?

Politics - Questions

• Will governments encourage or discourage privatization of universities?

Models for future higher education


• Different ways to get a bachelor’s– Three-year and accelerated bachelors– Multiple education providers




• The bare-bones University– Lower-cost, online education with focus on teaching– Limited enrollment related to local workforce needs




• Experimental models– Online-only– Flipped classrooms– Intership-focused– Minimalist or virtual campuses

– Entrepreneurial universities



Etzkowitz, et al. The future of the university an the university of the future: evolution of ivory tower to entrepreneurial paradigm.Research Policy. 2000

http://bit.ly/EntrepreneurialUnis


• Corporate Universities– Deloitte, Disney, Motorola, etc. universities– Displace traditional education with job focus– Longer term investment in specialized employees




Brint. Creating the Future: ‘New Directions’ in American Research Universities. Minerva. 2005

http://bit.ly/CreatingTheFuture

One scenario for the future• Undergrad education supply increases, dropping price• Climate changes increases price of displacement

– Delocalized, stay in your network to study• Vocational focus continues due to uncertain job markets

– Modular education offers adaptability (employablility)• Massification leads to mega institutions for post-grad research

and entrepreneurship– Teaching & research more closely linked for postgrads– Localized, join a network of your academic peers

• More diverse funding for institutions, researchers, students– Student sponsors, KickStarter research, brand giving games

Contact

• About.me/AJEbsary• AdrianEbsary.com

• Twitter: @AJEbsary• Facebook.com/AJEbsary• Linkedin.com/in/AJEbsary

adrian j. ebsary – online community specialist …...technology – open education • open...

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