advantage business group ‘the barbican’, east street, farnham, surrey gu9 7tb 01252 738500

Advantage Business Group

‘The Barbican’, East Street, Farnham, Surrey GU9 7TB 01252 738500

www.Advantage-Business.co.uk

Combining Cognitive Maps with other OR methods to support Decision-Makers

ISMOR 21, September 2004

Colin Drysdale

Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 3

Presentation Outline

Introduction

• Home Office – Crime Reduction Model

• MOD, Dstl – C3I system Benefits Model– (Command Control Communications & Intelligence)

Final Discussion


Introduction


Decision making – common themes

• Governmental decision makers

• Account rationally for decisions

• Possibility of some form of ‘public’ scrutiny


Case Study 1

Home Office – Crime Reduction Model


Home Office – Crime Reduction Model

• Responsibilities include reducing the level of crime in England and Wales

• Culture change

• ‘evidence based policy making’

• Justification


Spending Review 2004

• Knowledge existed across a number of groups

• Some of this was locked in experts’ minds

• Seemed like a job for SODA cognitive mapping– (Strategic Options Development and Analysis )


Cognitive Mapping - Justification


Intermediate step

List

Example

Intervention

Goal

Cognitive Map - Concepts


Weak Link

Connotative

Possible Link

Causal

-Negative Causal

Logical AND&

&

Cognitive Map - Links

Correlation


Intervention

Goal

Intervention

Cognitive Map - Constructs


Intervention

Goal

Intervention

Argument

Constructs


Intervention

Goal

Intervention

Evidence summary and URL link to supporting Documentation in a pop-up box

Memo

Argument Evidence

Constructs


Intervention

Goal

Intervention

Evidence summary and URL link to supporting Documentation in a pop-up box

Memo

Argument Evidence

Constructs

= Case +


Approach

• ~30 Interviews– Generated initial maps

• interviewees invited to discuss:– causes of crime– policy goals– interventions– …– evidence sources / quality

• Synthesis– To a single map (~2400 - 1800 concepts)


Initial benefits

• Knowledge model

• Single resource

• Linked to exiting documents

• Shows where more research & analysis is required


Next issue

• Interventions that should be funded ?

• Defines the “Problem”

• Time stepped simulation


Further insights

• Exploit causal pathways• Interventions to goals• ~1800 concepts • MS Excel with VBA tool developed

• Enabled analysis of– Contradicting interventions– Loops in the causal logic – Completely dependent interventions


Dependent interventions


Findings

• Many logical anomalies

• different interpretations of “intervention”

• Showed that – more clarity needed– for quantitative modelling


Case Study 1 – Further benefits

• Cognitive modelling helped define ‘the problem’ and requirements for more quantitative modelling

• In this role SODA cognitive mapping should not be viewed ‘soft’ OR– it enables a ‘soft-to-harder’ transition


‘soft-to-harder’ methodologies

subjective

objective

quantitativequalitative

Soft

Hard



subjective

objective


Soft

Hard



subjective

objective


Soft

Hard

tacit

explicit


Case Study 2

MOD - C3I system Benefits Modelling


Benefits Modelling

• Dstl name

• Causal mapping & MCDA

• C3I systems


The Task

• Aim - Develop a C3I system benefits model

• Purpose – support contractor down-select & OR programme definition

• Implementation – constrained to perform calculations in Excel with VBA for ease of maintenance in-house


The concept

• SODA COGNITIVE maps contain CAUSAL logic– and additional information

• MCDA networks for modelling C3I can get complicated ….


MCDA nets for C3I get complicatedInvestments(SRD / ADD

Level)

Investments(URD Level)

SystemAttributes

Organisational Attributes

Militarycapabilities

Value System


The concept

• SODA cognitive maps contain causal logic– and additional information

• MCDA networks for modelling C3I can get complicated

• Can’t use a Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) MCDA tool


The concept

• SODA cognitive maps contain causal logic– and additional information

• MCDA networks for modelling C3I can get complicated

• Can’t use a Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) MCDA tool

• Why not use the cognitive map as the front end to an Excel with VBA MCDA model


What happened

• Workshop - “false start” !

• Unavoidable part of the problem exploration process

• How to recover– Stay calm– Needs skill and experience


Recovery

• Method was unfamiliar but ….– Resembled familiar information flows

• Solution was to exploit familiar information flows

• Converted these “off-line”

• High level structure


Benefits Modelling

subjective

objective


Soft

Hard

causalmapping

MCDA

MCDA


Final Discussion


Final Discussion

• Take-up of Soft OR techniques has not been universal

• Combining cognitive mapping with other techniques– quantified logical case– pass independent scrutiny

• Both studies illustrate that cognitive mapping supports problem formulation

• The second study illustrates that cognitive mapping requires skill & experience


References / Reading

• Description of the SODA technique see: “Rational Analysis for a Problematic World”, Ed. J Rosenhead, Chapter 2, John Wiley & Sons, 1989.

• “Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis – Practically the only way to choose”, V Belton, OR 32, Sep 1990, Published in “Operational Research Tutorial Papers: 1990”

• “Benefits Analysis – A Robust Assessment Approach”, G Mathieson, Dstl, 2002, Unclassified.

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