aeo2015 – key trends and changes for the residential...
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www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
AEO2015 – key trends and changes for
the residential sector
For
13th Annual Energy Forecasters Meeting
May 6, 2015 | Baltimore, Maryland
By
Erin Boedecker, Team Leader
Buildings Energy Consumption & Efficiency Analysis
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Overview
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 2
• Changes in release cycles
• What’s new
• Highlights – the big picture
• EFG favorites – residential results
• Residential PV outlook
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AEO2015 is a shorter edition
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 3
2014 2015
International
Energy
Outlook
Shorter Edition in mid 2014:
• focus on the liquids projection
as used in AEO2014
• summary tables
• short analysis
Full Edition in the spring fall
Annual
Energy
Outlook
Full Edition in the spring:
• analysis of energy issues
• many alternative scenarios
Shorter Edition in late 2014 or early
2015:
• Reference
• Low / High Economic Growth
• Low / High Oil Price cases
• short discussions
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AEO2015 includes impacts from changes in residential
assumptions, even in “shorter” edition
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 4
• End-use technology characterizations
• Federal standards
• PV costs and residential niches
• Typical historical updates
– energy consumption
– weather
– DG installed capacity
• Added capability for subsidy modeling and tracking
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End-use technology characterization update
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 5
• Residential space heating equipment, space cooling equipment, water heaters, refrigerators, freezers, dishwashers, clothes washers, clothes dryers
• Contract report from Leidos/Navigant is available online:http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/
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Technology update example:
residential top-loading clothes washers
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 6
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Federal standards
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 7
• furnace fans: effective 2019
• external power supplies: effective 2016
• set-top boxes (voluntary agreement): effective 2014 (tier 1), 2017 (tier 2)
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Standard leads to expected decline in furnace fan consumption
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 8
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AEO2015
residential electricity consumption for furnace fansquadrillion Btu
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2015 and Annual Energy Outlook 2014
History Projections2013
AEO2014
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AEO2015 shows slower near-term household growth
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 9
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
residential households, millions of units
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2015 and Annual Energy Outlook 2014
AEO2015
AEO2014
History Projections2013
≈ 0
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AEO2015 electricity prices are slightly higher than in AEO2014
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
History Projections
electricity
natural gas
AEO2014
AEO2015
AEO2015
AEO2014
2013
2013$ per million Btu
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2015 and Annual Energy Outlook 2014
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Declining residential use of other fuels offsets growth in
electricity consumption
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Electricity
Natural gas
Other Propane Distillate
ProjectionsHistory 2013
residential delivered consumption by fuel
quadrillion Btu
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2015
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Household energy intensity declines for most end uses
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 12
residential delivered energy intensitymillion Btu per household
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2015
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Computers andrelated equipment
TVs andset-top boxes
Cooking
Laundry anddishwashing
Refrigeratorsand freezers
Lighting
MELs andother end-uses
Water Heating
Heating, cooling,and ventilation 2040
2013
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Intensities increase for miscellaneous electric loads
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 13
3.12.5
2.41.9
1.71.51.5
1.11.11.11.01.0
0.70.50.5
0.20.2
0.0-0.3
-0.7-1.0
-1.3-1.7
-2.0-2.3
-2.9-2.9-3.0
-5.0-6.5
-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0
Security SystemsPortable Spas
Home TheatersElectric OtherSet-top Boxes
Space CoolingCoffee MakersRechargeables
Ceiling Fans Cooking
Microwaves Dishwashers 1/ Clothes Dryers
DehumidifiersAll uses
Water HeatingPool Heaters
RefrigerationTVs
Freezers Space Heating Furnace Fans
Monitors Clothes Washers 1/
Network EquipmentVideo Game Consoles
LightingLaptops
Desktop PCsDVD Players
residential electricity consumption, average annual percent change 2013-2040
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2015
households (0.8% per year)
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Miscellaneous uses also contribute most to sales growth
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 14
change in annual residential electricity sales, 2013-2040
billion kilowatthours
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2015
204
60
18
13
10
9
-4
-20
-94
-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250
Other Uses
Heating, cooling, and ventilation
Laundry and dishwashing
Televisions and Related Equipment
Cooking
Water Heating
Refrigerators and freezers
Computers and Related Equipment
Lighting
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DG updates include PV costs and residential
niches
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 15
• PV costs updated
– draft technology update shows lower inverter costs affecting both installed capital cost and maintenance cost for replacement
– results in more PV adoption
• Residential niches updated for 2009 RECS and marginal price approach
– confidential RECS data with zip codes used to map solar insolation for more accurate representation of solar resource
– monthly electric bills used to develop marginal electricity price estimates
– marginal prices higher than average prices in some areas but not all
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Reduction in inverter costs drives down distributed PV costs
relative to AEO2014
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 16
Average Generating Capacity (kilowattDC)
AEO2014 InstalledCapital Cost
(2014$ per kilowattDC)
AEO2015 Installed Capital Cost
(2014$ per kilowattDC)
Residential
2012 4 $5,856 $5,856
2015 4 $4,602 $4,233
2025 5 $3,337 $3,070
2035 5 $3,153 $2,900
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AEO2015 distributed PV adoption spurred by lower cost
assumptions and higher electricity prices than in AEO2014
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 17
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
History Projections
AEO2014
AEO2015
2013
net summer residential solar capacity
gigawatts
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2015 and Annual Energy Outlook 2014
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For more information
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 18
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
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Bonus slides
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 19
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Intensities increase for miscellaneous electric loads
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 20
3.12.5
2.41.9
1.71.51.5
1.11.11.11.01.0
0.70.50.5
0.20.2
0.0-0.3
-0.7-1.0
-1.3-1.7
-2.0-2.3
-2.9-2.9-3.0
-5.0-6.5
-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0
Security SystemsPortable Spas
Home TheatersElectric OtherSet-top Boxes
Space CoolingCoffee MakersRechargeables
Ceiling Fans Cooking
Microwaves Dishwashers 1/ Clothes Dryers
DehumidifiersAll uses
Water HeatingPool Heaters
RefrigerationTVs
Freezers Space Heating Furnace Fans
Monitors Clothes Washers 1/
Network EquipmentVideo Game Consoles
LightingLaptops
Desktop PCsDVD Players
residential electricity consumption, average annual percent change 2013-2040
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2015
households (0.8% per year)
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AEO2014 residential electricity growth for comparison
Erin Boedecker, EFG Annual Meeting
Baltimore, May 6, 2015 21
residential electricity consumption, average annual percent change 2012-2040
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2014
3.42.62.6
2.31.9
1.71.4
1.21.21.1
0.80.8
0.70.6
0.50.50.5
0.30.3
-0.1-0.1
-0.3-0.4
-1.2-1.7
-2.4-2.5
-2.6-2.9
-4.9-6.4
-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0
SecuritySysSpas
Home TheaterElectric Other
SetTopBoxCoffeeMaker
CoolingRechargeable
MicrowaveCooking
DryerFurnaceFans
AllUsesDishWash
DehumidifierHeating
HotWaterRefrigerator
Pool HeatersFreezer
SecHeatingCeilingFan
TVClothesWash
MonitorsNetwork Eq
LaptopVideoGame
LightingDesktop PC
DVD households (0.8% per year)