AERIUSScience at the core of

policy and practice

an integrated approach to nitrogen

Mark Wilmot

National institute forPublic Health and theEnvironment

mark.wilmot@rivm.nlwww.aerius.nl

2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”

Introduction

๏ The European Birds/Habitats Directiveensures the conservation of a widerange of rare, threatened or endemicanimal and plant species

๏ Excess in nitrogen as well ashydrology are the two key componentsin northern Europe

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2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”

Dutch integrated Approach to Nitrogen

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๏ 118 of 162 sites withexcessive nitrogendeposition

๏A significant decrease isrequired to achieve N2000goals in terms ofconservation objectives ofthe EU directive

๏Rigid norms, DutchCouncil of State (excessdefined by critical loads )

๏ Assessments focus onlyon Nitrogen

๏Unrealistic level of detail

๏Difficulties with assessmentof accumulating effects

๏ Permits issuing in generalcomes to a halt

๏When permits issued it is acostly and lengthyprocesses

2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”

Dutch integrated Approach to Nitrogen

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Ecological restoration measures Accounting for nitrogendeposition

2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”

Dutch integrated Approach to Nitrogen

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๏ The premise of PAS is that a reduction in nitrogen deposition andextra effort on ecological restoration will enable recovery of habitats

๏ Assessment on Nitrogen, Hydrology and other major effects thatthreaten the quality of habitats

๏ Legally embedded in National law

๏ Room for development (permitting expanding or new activities)

๏ Monitoring and hands-on control

2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”

Room for development

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Autonomous development

Current levelof totalnitrogendeposition

2.5%

0%

Economic growth

Agricultural policy measures

Future levelof totalnitrogendeposition by2.5% EG

2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”

Towards information governance

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2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”

Towards information governance

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2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”

What is AERIUS?

AERIUS is an Open Source software instrument specificallydeveloped to support the Integrated Approach to Nitrogen forthe evaluation of policy decisions, ecologicalassessments as well as issuing permits.

AERIUS combines the complexity of atmospherictransportation modeling, ecological assessments and reportingwith the ease of use of e.g. online banking.

AERIUS products are publicly available and free of charge

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2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”

The AERIUS N-cycle

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2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”11

500 m

Local

๏ Asses nitrogenimpact of individualemission sources,project and plans

๏ Incorporatemultiple sectors ifnecessary

2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”12

500 m

Local

๏ Immediatefeedback whetheror not the project iseligible for requiredpermitting

๏ If so, permitrequest can bedone directly fromAERIUS

2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”13

4 km

Regional

๏ Asses nitrogenimpact frommultiple sources

๏ Across multiplesectors if necessary

๏ Evaluate regionalpolicy drivers

2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”14

80 km

National

๏ Asses impact ofdifferent policyscenario’s

๏ Monitoring ofeffects of policydecisions

2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”15

Continental

๏ Asses potentialimpact of differentpolicy scenario’s

๏ Monitoring ofeffects of policydecisions

2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”16

Agriculture

Industry

Waste processing

Traffic and transport

Shipping

Off-shore

Abroad

Natural sources

On every level

๏ Insight intocontribution ofdifferent sectoralemissions

๏ Insight intopotential effects ofdifferent policyscenario’s

2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”

Quick remarks on modeling approach

๏ Operational Priority Substances Model (OPS)

๏ long-term climatological trajectory model

๏ DEPosition of Acidifying Compounds (DEPAC)

๏ Compensation point model

๏ On going research for use of EMEP(4NL)

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Jaarsveld et al. (2012)Zanten et al. (2010)Wichink Kruit et al. (2007)

2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”

Model uncertainties and the integrated approach

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2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”19

https://www.aerius.nl https://gitlab.com/AERIUS/AERIUS

2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”20

https://www.aerius.nl

๏ “Scientifically” utilizing all existing knowledge and data in asingle “ecosystem” is a great challenge

๏ But delivering the information into a form that made the usersusceptible is the greatest achievement

๏ I’ll be happy to give you more detailed information or ademonstration

Concluding remarks

https://gitlab.com/AERIUS/AERIUS