Af-Pak Problem

Ramana D

5 Feb. 2011

Why study Af-Pak?• NPR had a discussion on Nov 5th 2009 on the Af-Pak situation.

Pentagon rep was asked who is the enemy?The person said its Taliban and they are three types:

– Traditional Taliban led by Mullah Omar who were running Afghanistan before 9/11,

– Haqqani faction of Taliban who are the most ideological faction and – the Gulbuddin Hekmatyar faction. These are the three types in Afghanistan.

• Next Susan Rice, US Ambassador to UN was asked– Replied Enemy is Al Qaida being sheltered in Pakistan

• Manmohan Singh said stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan was of vital importance to India than any other nation as it stood to be affected more by the turmoil in the two countries

Location in West Asia

Location in Indian Sub-continent

Terrain MapOf Afghanistan

Complexity

Gen. McChrystal said “If we understand this chart, we will win the war!!!”

External Players

Afghanistan

US

Pakistan

Russia Rest of world

IndiaIran

Perspectives Indian Perspective:

- Afghanistan shouldn’t become safe haven for terrorists- Afghanistan shouldn’t become 'strategic depth' for TSP- Afghanistan should be multi-ethnic, multi-cultural modern state- Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam

TSP perspective:

- Afghanistan should have a TSP friendly regime for following reasons:- Settling Durand Line to prevent loss of NWFP- Provide strategic depth for

-Terrorist camps- Hide special weapons- Hinterland for heroin growing

Perspective• Pashtun Perspective:

- Any ruler in Afghanistan has to be a Pashtun as they created modern Afghanistan- Eventually erase Durand line and regain lost lands to British India

- Pashtuns in non-Pashtun areas should not be harassed

Non-Pashtun Perspective:- Pashtuns should not dominate and impact their sub-nationalism– Tajik, Hazara, Uzbeg etc..

• US perspective:

- Non Islamist government in Afghanistan to prevent:- Regrouping of Islamist forces like AlQ & 'bad' Taliban- Provide bases for US forces for hedge against Central Asia

and fracturing TSP- Provide base for 'guiding' new Islamist thinking in Central

Asia

Perspective• PRC perspective:

- Ensure TSP retains influence in Afghanistan to hedge rising India- Ensure US is weakened due to Afghanistan to preclude Uigher revolt- Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam

Iran perspective:

- Ensure TSP does not dominate Afghanistan- Ensure balance in Shia (Hazara interests) versus Sunni (Pashtuns) power - Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam

Russian perspective:

- Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam- Ensure Afghanistan keeps the US occupied

Perspective• Central Asian countries:

- Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam

EU countries:

- Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam - Ensure Afghanistan is not a heroin producing region

Perspective• Geographic perspective:

- Afghanistan is the pivot of Central Asia- Pathway to conquer Indian sub-continent or Central Asia- High mountains and challenging terrain- Not much arable land. Lot of desert

- Only three rivers: Helmand,Kabul and Herat

History Perspective:

- Afghanistan has been at cross roads of invasions of Indian sub-continent- Afghanistan was declared a neutral country between the British and Tsarist Russia- Afghanistan has always survived on subsidy from Indo-Gangetic plains.

- Afghanistan has suffered continuous turmoil and civil war since 1973 if not since Abdur Rehman in late 19th century

Consequences of US failure in Af-Pak

- Extremist Islam wins and will roll over most of the current Islamic states- Have high negative impact on Indian sub-continent- Definite radicalization of TSP with its nuclear weapons- Uigher uprising in East Turkistan- Central Asian countries will be radicalized - PRC will gain Asian domination but lose East Turkistan- Russia might be rolled back to the Duchy of Muscovy- Demoralized by the defeat in far away lands the 'malaise' in American politics could return leading to political wilderness a la Vietnam- Drug trade will zoom on the supply side- World globalization will suffer- It could lead to loss of leadership as other challengers will emerge

Desired Outcomes• Indian Perspective:

- Maximum acceptable solution is a strong and vibrant Afghanistan free from Islamist fundamentalism

- Minimum acceptable solution is a Afghanistan free from TSP influence

• TSP perspective:

- Maximum acceptable solution is Afghanistan incorporated into TSP

- Minimum acceptable solution: TSP friendly regime in Afghanistan

Desired Outcomes

• Pashtun Perspective:

- Maximum acceptable solution: Any ruler in Afghanistan has to be a Pashtun- Minimum acceptable solution Any ruler of Afghanistan has to be a Pashtun.

• Non Pashtun Perspective:- Maximum acceptable solution Pashtuns should not dominate and impact their sub-nationalism: Tajik, Hazara, Uzbeg etc.

- Minimum acceptable solution: Pashtuns should include the other ethnic minorities in government

Desired OutcomesUS perspective:

- Maximum acceptable solution: Non Islamist govt in Afghanistan- Minimum acceptable solution: Friendly regime in place irrespective of their Islamist credentials.

PRC perspective:

- Maximum acceptable solution: Ensure TSP retains influence in Afghanistan- Minimum acceptable solution: Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam

Desired Outcomes• Iran perspective:

- Maximum acceptable solution: Ensure TSP does not dominate Afghanistan- Minimum acceptable solution: Ensure balance in Shia (Hazara interests) versus Sunni (Pashtuns) power

Russian perspective:

- Maximum acceptable solution: Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam- Minimum acceptable solution: Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist /"guided" Islam

Desired Outcomes• Central Asian countries:

- Maximum acceptable solution: Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam

- Minimum acceptable solution : Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam

• EU countries:

- Maximum acceptable solution: Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam and drugs production

- Minimum acceptable solution : Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam and drugs production

Options

• US leaves Af-Pak

• US stays in Af-Pak

• India increases aid to Afghanistan– Civil infrastructure and people– Police and para-military

PLAN 11/13/2009• US increase troop presence and crushes bad Taliban

• Otherwise it will lose and the malaise kicks in

• US manages TSP while doing this– Not at cost of any other nation

• The good Taliban get regularized into para-military scouts etc.– Crucial to get them under a uniform and get rid of their tribal dress.– The Afghan National Army still gets its share of Tajiks and Uzbegs

and Hazaras as top layer to guarantee the ethnic rights

• The Ghilzais and Durranis have to make up and work out a compromise certified by the loya jirga to ensure Pashtun solidarity

• An all powers conference to declare Afghan neutrality is crucial to return

PLAN (Continued)• Afghanistan to buffer status like in the 19th century. This is to

neutralize any dreams of jihadis

• Same time all the ethnic areas will have millat/autonomy status: Pashtuns, Tajiks and Hazaras and Uzbegs

• The rights of sub-minorities in these areas are guaranteed by Afghan National Govt eg. Pashtuns in Tajik areas und so weiter

• A G-8/OECD/INDIA and PRC economic program has to be worked out to stabilize the country. US will have the TSP economic stabilization program

• A strong advice is to seek Pashtun autonomy in TSP as a self determination right same as the Kurds in Iraq to satisfy the self determination rights. as this is related to the Afghan issue

Follow-Through

• Obama Plan 11/28/09– Increase troops (aka Surge)– Increase diplomatic efforts in region– Increase pressure on Karzai to integrate Pashtuns

(good vs bad Taliban)

• Results– Surge in Marjah failed- 2010– Karzai weakend by US pressure – Pak arresting Taliban negotiating with Karzai and

delivering them to US as terrorists

Robert BlackwillPlan B

• Withdraw US presence to camps around Kabul

• Launch periodic drone attacks on Al Qaida in Afghanistan

• Let Taliban takeover Southern Afghanistan

• Reduce cost of deployment

• Tell India US wont take care of Indian interests

Consequence of Plan B

• Taliban takeover of Southern Afghanistan

• US presence in Kabul prevents Taliban takeover

• Taliban will revive Pashtun Nationalism and move eastwards to erase Durand Line

• Will bring about clash between the Pashtuns and the TSP

• Could set-off the ‘feared’ Balkanisation

Indian Options

• Support the legitimate government in Kabul– Karzai Pasthuns and Northern Afghans

• Do nothing else as any involvement will unite the warring factions

• Balkanization of TSP is not Indian problem

END

• Thanks for listening

• Any Questions?