Affirmative Action, Mismatch and College Graduation Rates

Education Writers Association Los Angeles

February 27, 2016

William Kidder Associate Vice Chancellor

UC Riverside william.kidder@ucr.edu

1

Themes q  Why this matters: B.A. degree production

and the global economy q  Black and Latino grad rate gaps at selective

U.S. colleges & universities q  Graduation rate studies summarized q  Wages/earnings studies q  Theory and research behind the educational

benefits of diversity

2

Equity Gaps in Graduation Rates are Relevant to America’s Future in the Global Economy

US and OECD Countries, % of Population with Bachelor’s Degrees or Higher, by age (2012)

3

U.S. rank 30.3%

34.1%

25.9%

34.7%

20.1%

30.5%

16.9%

31.2%

OECD Countries Avg. (34) United States

Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64

12th 5th 2nd 1st

Source: http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d14/tables/dt14_603.20.asp

Black-White Gaps in Graduation Rate at Top 100 U.S. Research Universities

(2003-04 to 2006-07 freshman cohorts combined)

4

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Freshman Selectivity (most selective at left)

Avg. Gap by Quintile

5.4 points 9.8 points 11.8 points 11.1 points 13.7 points

Slight Negative Correlation between Selectivity and Black-White Grad Rate Gaps (500 Colleges)

5 Source: Jonathan Rothwell, Brookings (Dec. 2015)

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/social-mobility-memos/posts/2015/12/16-scalia-black-students-do-well-top-colleges-rothwell

Latino-White Gaps in Graduation Rate at Top 100 U.S. Research Universities

(2003-04 to 2006-07 freshman cohorts combined)

6

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Har

vard

Uni

vers

ity

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ceto

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Gap

= W

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min

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o R

ates

Freshman Selectivity (most selective at left)

3.4 points 4.8 points 7.9 points 7.9 points 6.6 points

Avg. Gap by Quintile

Literature Disconfirming the Mismatch Hypothesis: College Graduation Rates

1. Review of the literature, some

additional data analysis

2. Compares similar students at different tier

institutions

3. Data set focused on highly selective colleges

4. Data set focused on a particular state system

5. Data set nationally representative/broad in

scope

6. Natural Experiment (or Quasi-Experiment)

7. Used statistical techniques to control for

selection bias

7

2 3 Sigal Alon, Race, Class and Affirmative Action (2015)

7

1 5 William C. Kidder & Richard O. Lempert, The Mismatch Myth in U.S. Higher Education: A Synthesis of the Empirical Evidence at the Law School and Undergraduate Levels, in Uma M. Jayakumar & Liliana M. Garces Eds., Affirmative Action and Racial Equity, 105, 114-22 (2015)

2 5 Eleanor Wiske Dillon & Jeffrey Andrew Smith, The Consequences of Academic Match between Students and Colleges (May 2015), IZA discussion paper available at http://ftp.iza.org/dp9080.pdf

1 5 William C. Kidder & Angela Onwuachi-Willig, Still Hazy After All These Years: The Data and Theory Behind “Mismatch,” 92 Texas L. Rev. 895, 897-921 (2014)

2 5 Peter Hinrichs, Affirmative Action Bans and College Graduation Rates, 42 Econ. Educ. Rev 43 (2014)

2 4 Peter Arcidiacono & Cory Koedel, Race and College Success: Evidence from Missouri, 6 Am. Econ. J.: Applied Econ. 20 (2014)

Mismatch Literature & Grad Rates Cont.

8

6 4 Michal Kurlaender & Eric Grodsky, Mismatch and the Paternalistic Justification for Selective College Admissions, 86 Soc. Educ. 294, 305-07 (2013)

2 3 Joanne W. Golann et al., Does the “Mismatch Hypothesis” Apply to Hispanic Students at Selective Colleges?, in The Education of the Hispanic Population: Selected Essays at 209, 222-23 (Billie Gastic & Richard R. Verdugo eds., 2013)

2 5 Ben Backes, Do Affirmative Action Bans Lower Minority College Enrollment and Attainment? Evidence from Statewide Bans, 47 J. Hum. Resources 435, 437 (2012)

6 4 Kalena E. Cortes, Do Bans on Affirmative Action Hurt Minority Students? Evidence from the Texas Top 10% Plan, 29 Econ. Educ. Rev. 1110, 1111 (2010)

4 Tongshan Chang & Heather Rose, A Portrait of Underrepresented Minorities at the University of California, 1994–2008, in Equal Opportunity in Higher Education: The Past and Future of California’s Proposition 209, at 83, 98-99 (Eric Grodsky & Michal Kurlaender eds., 2010)

2 5 William G. Bowen et al., Crossing the Finish Line: Completing College at America’s Public Universities 12–16, 227–28 (2009)

2 3 Thomas J. Espenshade & Alexandria Walton Radford, No Longer Separate, Not Yet Equal: Race and Class in Elite College Admission and Campus Life 245 (2009)

2 5 Tatiana Melguizo, Quality Matters: Assessing the Impact of Attending More Selective Institutions on College Completion Rates of Minorities, 49 Res. Higher Educ. 214, 216–17, 223, 232 (2008)

7

2 3 Mario L. Small & Christopher Winship, Black Students’ Graduation from Elite Colleges: Institutional Characteristics and Between-Institution Differences, 36 Soc. Sci. Res. 1257, 1258, 1272 (2007)

2 3 Mary J. Fischer & Douglas S. Massey, The Effects of Affirmative Action in Higher Education, 36 Soc. Sci. Res. 531, 534 (2007)

2 3 Douglas S. Massey & Margarita Mooney, The Effects of America’s Three Affirmative Action Programs on Academic Performance, 54 Soc. Probs. 99, 114 (2007)

1 Harry J. Holzer & David Neumark, Affirmative Action: What Do We Know? 25 J. Pol’y Analysis & Mgmt. 463, 479 (2006)

2 4 Yuqin Gong, Ill. Educ. Research Council, The Divergence of the River: Examining the Effect of Academic “Mismatch” on College Student’s Early Attrition (2006), available at http://www.siue.edu/ierc/presentations/pdf/Mismatch2006Symp.pdf

2 3 Sigal Alon & Marta Tienda, Assessing the “Mismatch” Hypothesis: Differences in College Graduation Rates by Institutional Selectivity, 78 Soc. Educ. 294, 296 (2005)

7

2 3 William G. Bowen & Derek Bok, The Shape of the River (1998)

2 5 Thomas J. Kane, Racial and Ethnic Preferences in College Admissions, in The Black-White Test Score Gap 431, 445–47 (Christopher Jencks & Meredith Phillips eds., 1998)

Studies of Earnings/Wages Tend Not to Support Mismatch Hypothesis

•  Dale & Krueger, 2015 •  Dillon & Smith, 2015 •  Eide, Hilmer & Showalter, 2016 •  Andrews et al., 2012 •  Long, 2010 •  Daniel et al., 2001 •  Monks, 2000 •  Hoekstra, 2009 (*only studied white males) •  HBCUs: Fryer & Greenstone, 2010; Ehrenberg et

al., 1999; Kane, 1998 9

Cognitive Benefits of Racial Diversity in Higher Education (Simplified Model)

10

College Diversity

Experiences (classroom and

informal)

Effortful Disequilibrium Discrepancies w/ prior views

Adapted from Bowman (2010)

Research on Benefits of Diversity (AERA et al. Fisher briefs, 2012, 2015)

q  Reduces prejudice and enhances empathy between groups (Pettigrew & Tropp 2006 and 2008), cross-racial understanding (Denson & Chang, 2015; Denson ’09) and cross-group friendships (Davies et al. ’11)

q  Improved cognitive skills and critical thinking (Bowman 2010; Hurtado 2005; Chang et al. 2006; Antonio et al. 2004)

q  Civic engagement and pluralistic orientation (Engberg & Hurtado 2011; Bowman 2011; Gurin et al 2004) and workforce leadership skills (Jayakumar 2008; Bowman et al. 2011) 11

Backup Slides (Q&A)

12

Campus Racial Climate Matters

African Americans and Latinos Perceive Students of their Race/ Ethnicity are Less Respected at Research U’s with Lesser Diversity

0%

10%

20%

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African Am -- Strongly Agree African Am -- Agree African Am -- Somewhat Agree

59.0% avg.

79.9% avg.

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10%

20%

30%

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50%

60%

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Latino -- Strongly Agree Latino -- Agree Latino -- Somewhat Agree

92.4% avg. 77.7% avg.

13

Kidder & Onwuachi-Willig, Texas Law Review (2014)