The Africa RiskView Bulletin is a monthly publication by the African Risk Capacity (ARC). ARC is a Specialised Agency of the African Union designed to improve the capacity of AU Member States to manage natural disaster risk, adapt to climate change and protect food insecure populations. ARC relies on Africa RiskView, a drought modelling platform that uses satel-lite-based rainfall information to estimate the costs of responding to a drought. These modelled response costs are the un-derlying basis of the insurance policies issued by the ARC Insurance Company Limited, the financial affiliate of the ARC Agency, which pools risk across the continent.

For more information visit our website: www.africanriskcapacity.org

Africa RiskView MONTHLY BULLETIN | APRIL 2016

Rainfall

During the month of March 2016, seasonal rains continued in

Southern and Central Africa. The rainy season also started in East

Africa, as well as in the southern parts of West Africa. Countries

located in the Gulf of Guinea, including Nigeria, Benin, Togo,

Ghana, Ivory Coast and Liberia, received above average rains

(compared to the 2001-15 average), starting in mid-March. Con-

versely, the rains in East Africa were below the 2001-15 average,

due to poor rainfall in mid to late March in eastern Uganda, Ken-

ya, Somalia and southern Ethiopia. In Southern Africa, the March

rains were above the long-term average in most countries, with

the exception of western Namibia, south-western South Africa

and northern Malawi. Above average rains were received in most

parts of the region during the first two dekads of the month (1-20

March), followed by below average rains in the southern and

western areas (Angola, Namibia, Botswana and South Africa) and

in Malawi during the third dekad (21-31 March).

The rainfall patterns since October 2015 suggest that Southern

Africa experienced extreme dryness during the first half of the

2015/16 rainy season. Countries in the southern parts of the

region, including South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and southern

Mozambique received less than 70% of normal rainfall between

October and December 2015. The seasonal rains improved in the

second half of the season, with above average rainfall in most

areas with the exception of western Namibia, southern Mozam-

bique and coastal areas of south-western Madagascar. However,

it is unclear to what extent these above normal rains have been

able to compensate for the early season dryness in most areas,

given that they were mainly received from late February, which

might have come too late for some areas.

Drought

Malawi: The agricultural season in Malawi lasts from November

to the end of May. While Malawi was not as badly affected by the

poor start of the rainy season as other countries in the region, it

experienced below normal rainfall during the first months of the

season, particularly in the central and southern parts of the coun-

Rainfall:

Improved rainfall in March 2016 has partially compensated the dry conditions recorded during the first half of the 2015/16 rainy season in Southern Africa in some areas.

In East Africa, the long rains season has started with a slightly below average performance in March 2016, however rainfall is expected to pick up in intensity between April and June.

Drought:

In Malawi, the water requirements for the reference crop as of end-March are only partially satisfied in the central and south-ern parts of the country; however Africa RiskView and other rainfall data sources suggest that there has been an improve-ment in the situation on the ground in many areas since earlier in the season due to good rainfall from late February onwards.

Affected Populations:

Africa RiskView’s end-of-season projection for Malawi has de-creased compared to the previous month, due to the impact of the March 2016 rains; however, the country is facing a difficult food security situation, due to the compounding effect of the poor 2014/15 season, and the delayed start of the 2015/16 rains, which has extended the peak lean season.

ARC Risk Pool:

7 countries are participating in the 2015/16 ARC Risk Pool (The Gambia, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal).

Two countries currently have live contracts: Malawi and Ken-ya, where the 2016 long rains have just started.

Highlights:

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try. Nonetheless, Africa RiskView suggests that sowing conditions

were reached throughout the country between late November

and mid-December – slightly later than normal in most of central

and southern Malawi. Particularly in areas where sowing was

delayed, the current end-of-season WRSI projection indicates that

the water requirements of the reference crop (maize) are unlikely

to be fully satisfied by the end of the season in May. In the north-

ern parts of the country, Africa RiskView estimates that the water

requirements will be satisfied, should the April-May rains be in

line with the average of the rains between 2001 and 2015. Com-

pared to the benchmark set by the country as an indicator for

normal conditions (the median of the previous 5 years), the cur-

rent end-of-season WRSI projection suggests that drier than

normal conditions are likely to affect central Malawi, as well as

the extreme south of the country.1 FEWS NET’s end-of-season

WRSI projection depicts a similar picture for southern Malawi, but

is slightly more optimistic about the situation in the central parts

of the country. Other remote sensing data also confirms Africa

RiskView’s estimates, such as FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI),

which suggests that four districts in central and southern Malawi

are likely to experience moderate drought conditions (more than

25% of cropped areas affected), while the situation is better in the

rest of the country. This constitutes a significant improvement in

the situation compared to the previous month, when drought

conditions were estimated to affect over 40% of cropped areas in

twelve districts in central and southern Malawi, according to the

ASI. The ARC Secretariat is working closely with the Government

of Malawi and technical partners to validate the customisation of

the drought index used by Africa RiskView.

Kenya: In the context of its participation in the ARC Risk Pool in

2015/16, Kenya insured the two rainy seasons in its arid and semi-

arid lands (ASAL). Satellite data indicates that the 2016 long rains

season is experiencing a slightly delayed start, with lower than

average rains in Kenya’s pastoral areas in March 2016. However,

the bulk of the rains is normally received between April and June.

More accurate projections will be possible as soon as the seasonal

rains pick up in intensity.

Affected Populations

Malawi: Given the improved rains in March, which have poten-

tially compensated somewhat for the early season dryness in

areas where the rainfall season started late, Africa RiskView’s

population affected projections for Malawi have decreased from

last month, when the model estimated that around 1 million

people could have been affected by drought conditions at the end

of the 2015/16 agricultural season. However, it is important to

note that Malawi is currently experiencing a critical food security

situation due to the poor performance of the 2014/15 agricultural

season, which affected nearly 3 million people according to Africa

RiskView and vulnerability assessments conducted on the ground,

as well as its compounding effects (low cereal stocks, high food

prices etc.). Moreover, the late start of the 2015/16 season has

reduced income from agricultural labour, and is likely to result in

an extension of the peak lean season due to delayed harvests,

particularly in the central and southern parts of the country. The

compounding effect of the previous season is also likely to have

reduced the resilience levels of vulnerable households.

Kenya: Given that the 2016 long rains have just started, it is

Africa RiskView MONTHLY BULLETIN | APRIL 2016

Rainfall compared to 2001-14 average in mm, Southern Africa, Mar 2016 (RFE2)

Rainfall in % of 2001-15 average, Southern Africa, Jan-Mar 2016 (RFE2)

End-of-season WRSI projection, Malawi, 2015/16 agricultural season

1) Note that the poor performance of the 2014/15 season has contributed to lowering this benchmark.

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currently too early to make an accurate projection of the potential

seasonal outcomes in Kenya’s pastoral areas. More accurate

projections will be possible as the season progresses.

Update on the ARC Risk Pool

Currently, seven countries form the 2015/16 ARC Risk Pool. These

include three new countries that joined in 2015 (The Gambia,

Malawi and Mali), in addition to the four members of the first ARC

Risk Pool (Kenya, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal).

In the ongoing ARC Risk Pool, no payouts by the ARC Insurance

Company Limited have been triggered yet given the overall good

performance of the 2015 agricultural season in West Africa and

the good 2015/16 short rains season in Kenya, which did not

trigger a payout either. For the ongoing agricultural season in

Malawi, despite problems in some areas, the good rains from late

February onwards have reduced the likelihood of a payout. Final-

ly, in Kenya, which has insured both its 2015/16 short rains season

and the 2016 long rains season in its ASAL, the 2016 long rains

have just started. More accurate projections will be possible as

the season progresses.

In addition to the countries already participating in the ARC Risk

Pool, the ARC Secretariat is working with other countries exposed

to drought events in view of their potential participation in the

2016/17 ARC Risk Pool. The participation of new countries usually

follows an engagement process of 9 to 12 months which involves

the customisation of Africa RiskView by in-country technical ex-

perts with support from the ARC Secretariat, the definition of an

Operations Plans that outlines the assistance to be provided to

vulnerable populations in the case of a payout by the ARC Insur-

ance Company Limited, as well as the creation of structures and

processes that allow for the quick disbursement of the payouts,

and the activation of the pre-defined Operation Plans.

Africa RiskView MONTHLY BULLETIN | APRIL 2016

For more information visit our website: www.africanriskcapacity.org

The African Risk Capacity (ARC) is a special-

ised agency of the African Union designed

to improve the capacity of AU Member

States to manage natural disaster risk,

adapt to climate change and protect food

insecure populations.

Africa RiskView is the technical engine of

ARC. The software uses satellite-based rain-

fall information to estimate the costs of

responding to a drought, which triggers a

corresponding insurance payout.

ARC Insurance Company Limited is the fi-

nancial affiliate of the ARC Agency, which

pools risk across the continent through issu-

ing insurance policies to participating coun-

tries.

About ARC:

Disclaimer: The data and information contained in this bulletin have been developed for the purposes of, and using the methodology of, Af rica RiskView and the African Risk Capacity Group. The data in this bulletin is provided to the public for information purposes only, and neither the ARC Agency, its affiliates nor each of their respective officers, directors, employees and agents make any representation or warranty regarding the fitness of the data and information for any particular purpose. In no event shall the ARC Agency, its affiliates nor each of their respective officers, directors, em-ployees and agents be held liable with respect to any subject matter presented here. Payouts under insurance policies issued by ARC Insurance Company Limited are calculated using a stand-alone version of Africa RiskView, the results of which can differ from those presented here.

Note on Africa RiskView’s Methodology:

Rainfall: Africa RiskView uses

various satellite rainfall da-

tasets to track the progression

of rainy seasons in Africa. Coun-

tries intending to participate in

the ARC Risk Pool are required

to customise the rainfall com-

ponent by selecting the dataset

which corresponds the best to

the actual rainfall measured on

the ground.

Drought: Africa RiskView uses

the Water Requirements Satis-

faction Index (WRSI) as an indi-

cator for drought. The WRSI is

an index developed by the Food

and Agriculture Organisation of

the United Nations (FAO),

which, based on satellite rain-

fall estimates, calculates wheth-

er a particular crop is getting

the amount of water it needs at

different stages of its develop-

ment. To maximise the accura-

cy of Africa RiskView, countries

intending to take out insurance

customise the software’s pa-

rameters to reflect the realities

on the ground.

Affected Populations: Based on

the WRSI calculations, Africa

RiskView estimates the number

of people potentially affected

by drought for each country

participating in the insurance

pool. As part of the in-country

customisation process, vulnera-

bility profiles are developed at

the sub-national level for each

country, which define the po-

tential impact of a drought on

the population living in a spe-

cific area.

Response Costs: In a fourth

and final step, Africa RiskView

converts the numbers of affect-

ed people into response costs.

For countries participating in

the insurance pool these na-

tional response costs are the

underlying basis of the insur-

ance policies. Payouts will be

triggered from the ARC Insur-

ance Company Limited to coun-

tries where the estimated re-

sponse cost at the end of the

season exceeds a pre-defined

threshold specified in the insur-

ance contracts.

Africa RiskView MONTHLY BULLETIN | APRIL 2016