Africa’s Demographic Momentum, 1950 to 2100The Africanization of the World?

African and African American Perspectives

March 15, 2006

308 Padnos

Grand Valley State University

Dr. Roy Cole

Department of Geography and Planning

GVSU

The paradox of Africa’s location

Cole and de Blij (2006).

Cole and de Blij (2006).

There are many barriers to the entry and exit of people.

The African and non-African population split about 189,000 years ago (Hey and Harris 1999).

Modern humans left Africa between 50,000 to 70,000 years ago.

Populations grew and spread with the adoption of:

1. Animal husbandry.

2. Farming.

3. Iron implements.

4. Militarized age-sets.

5. Oher new technology.

Cole and de Blij (2006).

Four language phyla came to dominate the continent:

1: Afroasiatic.2. Niger-Congo.3. Nilo-Saharan.4. Khoisan.

Cole and de Blij (2006).

Africa’s long isolation is reflected in the genetic distance that separates Subsaharan Africans and the “out of Africa” peoples (Cavalli-Sforza 1994).

Cavalli-Sforza (1994).

Africa’s long isolation is reflected in the great linguistic distance that separates Subsaharan Africans and the “out of Africa” peoples (Cavalli-Sforza 1994).

Cavalli-Sforza (1994).

All humans=>

African peoples=>

Out-of-Africa peoples=>

But Africa’s isolation is over

Modern communications. World economy/globalization. Educational opportunities. Interest of the more developed world. African populations are “reaching out.”

The argument for the Africanization of the world

The demographic transition theory postulates that as a population experiences economic development it will undergo a transformation from high to low birth and death rates.

As a population nears the end of the transition, growth peaks and begins to decline.

The world’s population is increasing at a decreasing rate as a result of the demographic transition.

Africa (esp. SSA) is the last large world population group to go through the demographic transition.

Africa’s population is, and will remain, more youthful and reproductive than that of any other world region.

Therefore, the proportion of Africans in the annual additions will become more and more as time goes on.

The Demographic Transition Model

Cole and de Blij (2006).

Crude Birth and Death, Natural Increase, Growth and Migration Rates, Western Europe and USA, 1996 to 2050

Source of data: U.S Bureau of the Census (2006).

Crude Birth and Death, Natural Increase, Growth and Migration Rates, China, India, North Africa, Subsaharan Africa, 1996 to 2050

Source of data: U.S Bureau of the Census (2006).

Africa’s demographic momentum is palpable and easily demonstrable.

Source of data: FAOSTAT (2006).

Africa’s demographic momentum is powered by high fertility rates across the continent.

NOTE:2.1 births per woman=replacement level.1.3 births per woman=population falls by half every 45 years.

Source of data: U.S Bureau of the Census (2006).

Africa’s demographic momentum

By world standards Africa’s population boom is tardy. But in this case the last will be first. Its youthful population and demographic momentum will propel

population growth higher and higher in Africa while, at the same time, the populations of other world regions age and contract.

The Africanization of the world?

Europe has experienced below replacement fertility since the 1960s and 1970s and has developed “negative population momentum.”

Kohler, Billari, and Ortega (2005) suggest that immigration to Europe will not prevent population decline, rapid population aging, and the decrease in the number of people of working age.

However, Kohler et al. say that the evidence indicates that it seems likely that increases in immigration levels will be the general response of European countries to low fertility.

Africa will be the only world region to continue its positive demographic momentum into the 22nd century.

It seems likely that Africans, particularly Subsaharan Africans, will become more and more demographically typical in the population-deficit regions of the world.

What about HIV/AIDS?

Source of data: U.S Bureau of the Census (2006).

References

Cavalli-Sforza, L., P. Menozzi, and A. Piazza. 1994. The History and Geography of Human Genes. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Harris, E. E. and J. Hey. 1999. “X Chromosome Evidence for Ancient Human Histories.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 96: 3320-3324.

Kohler, H.-P., F. C. Billari, and J. A. Ortega. 2005. “Low and Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe: Causes, Implications and Policy Options.” University of Pennsylvania.