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4/13/2016 After 2 parched years in a row, Met predicts bountiful monsoon | india | Hindustan Times
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/after2parchedyearsinarowmetpredictsbountifulmonsoon/storyNbggiSpa4Y8HlXXhhL37QL.html 1/13
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After 2 parched years in a row, Met predicts bountiful monsoon
Zia Haq, Hindustan Times, New Delhi| Updated: Apr 13, 2016 00:07 IST
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4/13/2016 After 2 parched years in a row, Met predicts bountiful monsoon | india | Hindustan Times
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/after2parchedyearsinarowmetpredictsbountifulmonsoon/storyNbggiSpa4Y8HlXXhhL37QL.html 2/13
People along the Arabian Sea against the backdrop of monsoon clouds in Mumbai. (Reuters)
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After two years of drought, India’s June to September monsoon is likely to be above normal this year, an official forecast said on Tuesday, bringingcheer to millions of farmers, the industry and a government hobbled by deepening rural distress.
The fourmonth monsoon the country’s main rainy season and the lifeblood of Asia’s thirdlargest economy – will be 106%, the Met department’schief Laxman Singh Rathore said while unveiling the forecast.
According to the Met’s classification, the monsoon is considered normal if it is 96104% of the 50year average. If it is 104110%, it is consideredabove normal. On the whole, the monsoon is likely to be 6% excess. Like any prediction model, the one Met used to make this forecast has an errormargin of 5%.
The monsoon is critical because twothirds of Indians depend on a farmbased income, despite industrial expansion. Moreover, nearly 60% of thecountry’s arable land doesn’t have irrigation facilities. This means millions of farmers, whose income fuels overall growth, are dependent on the rains.
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After 2 parched years in a row, Met predicts bountiful monsoon
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4/13/2016 After 2 parched years in a row, Met predicts bountiful monsoon | india | Hindustan Times
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Two years of drought, triggered by a persistent El Nino weather pattern, have shrivelled the rural economy. El Nino is a weather glitch marked byhigherthannormal sea surface temperatures and is known to affect the monsoon.
Last year, the monsoon was deficient by 14%, leading to a crippling drought in 302 of India’s 640 districts. In 2015, the rains were short by 12%.
This year, the rains are critical to overcoming a rural crisis. Monsoon failure apart, unseasonal rains and hail have battered farms, too.
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4/13/2016 After 2 parched years in a row, Met predicts bountiful monsoon | india | Hindustan Times
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/after2parchedyearsinarowmetpredictsbountifulmonsoon/storyNbggiSpa4Y8HlXXhhL37QL.html 4/13
Poor farm incomes ultimately impact the country’s overall GDP by damping down rural sales, necessary to keep the economy growing. Nearly half ofall motorcycles, television sets and a host of consumer items are sold in rural areas.
If the rains are normal and farm output sufficient, then rural sale of these items goes up, generating demand in the economy.
The Met department chief said though the El Nino phenomenon was still strong, it would likely end in June, boosting the rains. The second half of therainy season will see even stronger rains.
For good farm output, the rains need to be not just robust but also evenly spread. “The IMD has also indicated that the monsoon this year will be higherthan normal which is good news, though the arrival and progress is important along with the geographic spread,” said Madan Sabnavis, chiefeconomist of Care Ratings, a ratings firm.
TagsAbove average monsoonMet predictionDroughtMonsoonIMD monsoon forecast
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4/13/2016 After 2 parched years in a row, Met predicts bountiful monsoon | india | Hindustan Times
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