agri-environmental indicators and gis-based models - instruments to assess sustainability of land...

Agri-environmental indicators and GIS-based models

- Instruments to assess sustainability of land use systems on regional level

Karl-Otto Wenkel and Alfred SchultzInstitute for Landscape Systems Analysis

Centre for Agricultural Landscape andLand Use Research, Müncheberg

1 Conceptual determination, and thematic and spatial aspects of sustainability

2 Determination of sustainability indicator values using simulation models and spatial data (simulation model - GIS - coupling)

3 Exemplary case studies

Scenario case study (1): Crane habitat quality

Scenario case study (2): N leaching effects of organic farming

4 Conclusions - Research needs

Outline of presentation

Institute for Landscape Systems Analysis

environmental aspects

social aspects

economic aspects

so far no general and uniform understanding of sustainability, but

sustainability should address:

Conceptual determination of sustainability

Conceptual determination of sustainability

[one possible] Solution:

provide information on state and trends of

environment by using indicators

determinate indicator values by monitoring orsimulation

Problem:

conceptual and methodological determination of sustainability

What does it mean?

How can it be operationalized (that is quantitatively determined in order to evaluate and compare)?

agri-environmental indicator:

agri-environmental indicator is a measure of change, or the risk of change, in resources used or affected by land use systems

...

provides information that can be used to achieve economic, environmental and social goals

...

current state or future trends of indicator values can be observed, measured or simulated

Definition of agri-environmental indicator

Indicator classes of sustainable land use and indicator examples

habitat availabilityfor certain plants and animals


environmental functions economic functions

social functions

sustainability indicators

agri-environmental indicators

soil fertility water availability biological integrity ...

available agricultural area biological productivity inhabitant's income ...

employment recreation value landscape scenery ...

Biological integrity - What is actually investigated ?



environmental functions economic functions

social functions

sustainability indicators


soil fertility water availability

biological integrity ...

available agricultural area biological productivity inhabitant's income ...

employment rate recreation value landscape scenery ...

availability of habitats for certain landscape specific plants and animals

structural properties of landscape (dissection, fragmentation, connectivity, shape, pattern)

diversity of landscape elements

development potential of landscape

Determination of sustainability - Indicators, monitoring and models

sustainability

operationalization by indicators

evaluation by monitoring and/or simulation

methodology for integrated sustainability assessment of land use systems


indicator monitoring systems

computer based indicator models future

trends

current states

Indicator and model based sustainability assessment

model based predictions ofagri-environmental

indicators

qualitative and quantitativespatial simulation models

hypotheses of policies andmanagement strategies

adaptation

separate and aggregatedevaluation of indicator values

model application

model selection

recommendations,proposals

indicator evaluationparticipative consent bystakeholders, scientists,

politicians

comparison of variants

variants


politicians


adaptation


model application

model selection

recommendations,proposals


model based predictions ofagri-environmental

indicators

com parison of variants

variants

Sustainability assesssment - Selection and application of models

different indicators and different spatio-

temporal resolutions for different hierarchic

levels

landscape level

abiotic indicator biotic indicatorhabitat qualitywater quality

Sustainability assesssment - Hierarchic indicator selection (example)

general biotic landscape potential (landscape structure indicators, biotopes, biotope patterns and networks, landscape dissections, ...)

habitat quality of animals with large area demand within and across ecosystems and biotopes

habitat quality of animals with small area demand within specific ecosystems and biotopes

amount and quality of water in rivers and lakes (river catchment discharge)

amount and quality of ground water in subterranean catchments (regional aquifer)

ground water levels in damp ecosystems; ground water recharge and nitrate concentration

local level

ecotope, ecosystem level

recomm endations,proposals


indicator evaluation

hypotheses of policies andm anagem ent strategies

adaptation

model application

model selection

participative consent bystakeholders, scientists,

politicians


m odel based predictions ofagri-environmental

indicators


variants

Sustainability assessment - Decision Support Systems (DSS)

modell guided Decision Support

System


politicians

biological productivity


adaptation


model application

model selection

recomm endations,proposals

qualitative and quantitativespatial simulation m odels

biodiversity - biotic integrityhabitat model

nutrient balance

agroec osys tem model

soil degradation

c rop yield model

eros ion model

groundwater rechargelandsc ape w ater model

variants


model based predictions ofagri-environm ental

indicators

Sustainability assessment - Indicator related component models

different spatio-temporal resolutions

for different hierarchic levels

Biotic Indicator: Animal habitats affected by agriculture


politicians

model based predictionof habitat quality

hypotheses of policies andm anagement strategies

adaptation

evaluation of habitat quality,visualization

model application

model selection

managementactivities

neuro-fuzzy basedspatial habitat model

biodiversity - biotic integrity

variants


spatial driving forces

habitat model

GIS themes

Selected bird species and indicator functions

Agricultural landscapes with multifaceted use, including grassland component; richly structured agricultural area

Open agrarian landscape with intact kettle-holes; richly structured, non-segmented landscape

Fire-bellied Toad (Bombina bombina)

Spacious open agrarian landscape; forests, swamps, mires, as factors of complexlandscapes; low-disturbance landscape

Common Crane (Grus grus)

Barn Owl (Tyto alba)

Institute for Landscape Systems Analysis

Scenario case study (1):

Investigation of potential Common Crane habitats in theUckermark-Barnim region

Scenario case study (1): Common Crane Habitat Quality

Situation

Particularly on account of economic reasons the intensity of production (fertilizers, pesticides) is decreased and a part of agricultural area is set aside.

Problem

What does happen with the quality of Common Crane breeding and resting habitats?

Scenario assumptions

10 % of agricultural area is set aside mineral fertilization is completely stopped

Scenario case study (1): Impact of set-aside

very good

unsuitablebad

acceptable

Potential quality

lakes, ponds

rivers, stream s

current land use situation

set-aside area is increased by 10 % of agricultural area

Voss, Wilkening, Lutze, Wieland & Schultz 2000

Scenario case study (1): Impact of stopping mineral fertilization

very good

unsuitablebad

acceptable

Potential quality

lakes, ponds

rivers, streams

mineral fertilization iscompletely stopped

current land use situation

Voss, Wilkening, Lutze, Wieland & Schultz 2000

Institute for Landscape Systems AnalysisInstitute for Land Use Systems and Landscape Ecology

Scenario case study (2):

Model based investigation ofN leaching effects of organic farming compared to present agricultural practice in Brandenburg

Scenario case study (2): N leaching from different farming systems

Situation

Under current agricultural practice N leaching can be a phenomenon with harmful effects on water quality dependent on site conditions and farming practice.

Problem

What does happen with N indicator variables when switching to organic farming?

Scenario assumptions

The whole agricultural area in Brandenburg is used for organic farming.

Scenario case study (2): N-model - GIS - coupling

Scenario case study (2): Simulated annual nitrate leaching in Brandenburg

Kersebaum & Piorr, 1999

Scenario case study (2): Comparison of selected indicators

variable scenario conventionalfarming

present livestock density

scenario organic farming

present livestock density

relative changes(conventional = 100)

nitrate leaching fromagricultural land

(kg N ha-1)

67 32 48

nitrogen load ofpercolation water

(tons year-1)

121.350 57.828 48

groundwater rechargefrom agricultural land

(mm year-1)

127 111 87

nitrate concentration (mg NO3 l-1)

233 127 55

Shannon-Index 2.32 2.22 95.7

N2-fixation (tons year-1)

11.792 58.354 495

CO2-fixation intobiomass (tons year-1)

18.213 11.807 66

Kersebaum, Piorr & Stachow, 1999

Conclusions - Research needs

work to identify and define appropriate sustainability indicators in order to analyze and to evaluate the impacts of different land use systems is to continue

particular problems: indicators for slowly acting landscape processes and for long-term effects of pesticides and animal medicaments

methods to combine and weight different thematic indicators in order to evaluate and compare land use variants integratively

continue development of spatial models for ecological and socio-economic landscape indicators

deepen the knowledge on scale dependence or invariance of landscape processes

Thank you for attention !

Questions?

agri-environmental indicators and gis-based models - instruments to assess sustainability of land...

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