agricultural commodities – march quarter...

Agricultural commodities

Department of Agricultureand Water Resources

Research by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

DECEMBER QUARTER 2015

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1ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 5 no. 4 • December quarter 2015

Contents

Economic overview 6

Key agricultural outcomes of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement 31

Crops

Wheat 49

Coarse grains 59

Oilseeds 68

Sugar 81

Cotton 90

Livestock

Beef and veal 101

Sheep meat and wool 109

Dairy 118

Boxes

Seasonal conditions in Australia 21

Farm cash income of broadacre farms 27

Statistical tables 127

Report extracts 169

ABARES contacts 172

2016

Outlook 20161–2 March, Canberra

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ABARES has confirmed speakers from the European Commission, Rabobank, the Netherlands, Economic Research Service at the United States Department of Agriculture, Macquarie Agricultural Funds Management, International Food Policy Research Institute, Hassad Australia, First State Super, Westpac, Victoria University, La Trobe University, the University of Queensland and the Australian National University.

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Economic overview

6 ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 5 no. 4 • December quarter 2015

Economic overviewNatasha Frawley

• World economic growth is assumed to weaken to 3.1 per cent in 2015 and then to increase to 3.4 per cent in 2016.

• Economic growth in China is assumed to continue to moderate in 2016.• Economic recovery in the United States is expected to continue in 2016 but

conditions in Japan and Europe remain fragile.

Global economyEconomic growth in 2015 and 2016Global economic growth remained below trend in the first three quarters of 2015. The moderation of economic growth in China has weakened economic performance in many emerging markets.

World economic growth

%

a ABARES assumption.

1

2

3

4

5

6

2016a201420122010200820062004200220001998

Economic overview


Economic growth in OECD countries, in aggregate, strengthened to 1.8 per cent in 2014 and is expected to average around the same level in 2015. The US economy has continued to strengthen, with growth of 2.6 per cent year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2015. Strengthening employment markets and growing consumer spending supported this recovery. In Western Europe, economic growth has improved but remains slow. Economic conditions in Japan remain fragile. For the OECD overall, economic growth is assumed to strengthen to 2.1 per cent in 2016.

In many non-OECD countries, economic growth weakened in 2015. In China, economic growth was 7.0 per cent in the March and June quarters and 6.9 per cent in the September quarter, compared with 7.3 per cent overall in 2014. Moderation of growth in China has affected other world economies, especially the emerging markets. Chinese growth, and consequently world growth, could be disrupted by any recurrence of volatility on Chinese equity markets.

Economic activity in Brazil and the Russian Federation declined sharply in 2015. In contrast, the Indian economy has remained relatively strong with growth of 7.3 per cent year-on-year in the three quarters to September. Despite slowing manufacturing and exports resulting from the weakening of the global economy, growth in India was supported by policy reforms, increased investment and lower import prices of raw materials.

For all non-OECD countries, economic growth is assumed to average 3.5 per cent in 2015 before recovering to 4.3 per cent in 2016.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, world economic growth is assumed to average 3.1 per cent in 2015 and 3.4 per cent in 2016.

Regional economic growth

%world

Eastern Europe, Russian Federation

and Ukraine

Latin America

non-OECD Asia

OECD

20142015a

2016a


0

–2

2

4

6

8

Economic overview


Key macroeconomic assumptionsK i iKeymacroeconomicassumptionsKeymacroeconomicassumptionsWorld unit 2013 2014 2015 a 2016 aWorld unit 2013 2014 2015 a 2016 aEconomic growthOECD % 1 1 1 8 1 8 2 1Economic growthOECD % 1.1 1.8 1.8 2.1U it d St tUnited States % 1.5 2.4 2.5 3.0Japan % 1.6 – 0.1 0.6 0.8p % 1.6 0.1 0.6 0.8Eurozone % – 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.5Eurozone % – 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.5– Germany % 0 4 1 6 1 6 1 7– Germany % 0.4 1.6 1.6 1.7France % 0 7 0 2 1 2 1 5– France % 0.7 0.2 1.2 1.5It l– Italy % – 1.7 – 0.4 0.8 1.3

United Kingdom % 1.7 3.0 2.4 2.3g % 1.7 3.0 2.4 2.3Korea, Rep. of % 2.9 3.3 2.7 3.2Korea, Rep. of % 2.9 3.3 2.7 3.2New Zealand % 2 5 3 3 2 2 2 3New Zealand % 2.5 3.3 2.2 2.3non OECD % 5 0 4 6 3 5 4 3non‐OECD % 5.0 4.6 3.5 4.3

i– non‐OECD Asia % 7.0 6.8 6.3 6.3 South‐East Asia b % 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.9 South East Asia b % 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.9

China c % 7.7 7.3 6.8 6.5 China c % 7.7 7.3 6.8 6.5Taiwan % 2 2 3 8 1 4 2 4 Taiwan % 2.2 3.8 1.4 2.4Singapore % 4 4 2 9 2 0 2 4 Singapore % 4.4 2.9 2.0 2.4I di % 6 4 7 1 7 5 7 8 India % 6.4 7.1 7.5 7.8

– Latin America % 2.9 1.3 – 0.3 0.8 Latin America % 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.8Russian Federation % 1.3 0.6 – 4.0 – 1.1Russian Federation % 1.3 0.6 4.0 1.1Ukraine % – 0 0 – 6 8 – 10 0 1 2Ukraine % – 0.0 – 6.8 – 10.0 1.2Eastern Europe % 2 9 2 8 2 9 3 2Eastern Europe % 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.2

ld % 3 3 3 4 3 1 3 4World d % 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.4InflationUnited States % 1.5 1.6 0.2 1.6United States % 1.5 1.6 0.2 1.6Interest ratesUS prime rate e % 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 8Interest ratesUS prime rate e % 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.8

i 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 2015 16unit 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 a 2015–16 aAustraliaEconomic growth % 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.5AustraliaEconomic growth % 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.5Inflation % 2 3 2 7 1 7 2 1Inflation % 2.3 2.7 1.7 2.1I t t t % 5 2 4 6 4 3 4 0Interest rates g % 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.0gAustralian exchange ratesUS$/A$ 1.03 0.92 0.84 0.72Australian exchange ratesUS$/A$ 1.03 0.92 0.84 0.72TWI for A$ h 77 71 67 62TWI for A$ h 77 71 67 62

b d l h h l h l d da ABARES assumption. b Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.p y ppc Excludes Hong Kong. d Weighted using 2014 purchasing‐power‐parity (PPP) valuation of c Excludes Hong Kong. d Weighted using 2014 purchasing power parity (PPP) valuation of country gross domestic product by the International Monetary Fund e Commercial bankcountry gross domestic product by the International Monetary Fund. e Commercial bank prime lending rates in the United States g Large business weighted average variable rate onprime lending rates in the United States. g Large business weighted‐average variable rate on credit outstanding. h Base: May 1970 = 100.g ySources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Monetary Fund; Organisation Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Monetary Fund; Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development; Reserve Bank of Australia; United Statesfor Economic Co‐operation and Development; Reserve Bank of Australia; United States Bureau of Labour Statistics; United States Federal ReserveBureau of Labour Statistics; United States Federal Reserve

Economic overview


Economic prospects in Australia’s major export markets

United StatesIn the United States, economic activity expanded at 2.2 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter 2015. This was slower than in the June quarter, when growth was 2.7 per cent.

Unemployment fell to a seven-year low of 5.1 per cent in September. This is within the US Federal Reserve’s assumed natural rate of unemployment of between 5.0 and 5.2 per cent. Non-farm employment increased by 2.8 million employees in the September quarter 2015, an increase of 2.0 per cent year-on-year.

Wage growth recovered in the September quarter after weak growth in the June quarter. The employment cost index is the broadest measure of labour costs. It grew by 0.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter in June and by 0.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter in September. This contributed to year-on-year growth of 2.0 per cent in the September quarter. Stronger wage growth and low unemployment are expected to support growth in consumer spending.

Consumer indicators, United States

Consumer SentimentIndex (University of Michigan)

index

Personal consumptionexpenditure growth(right axis)

%

20

40

60

80

100

–2

0

2

4

6

Sep2015

Sep2014

Sep2013

Sep2012

Sep2011

Sep2010

Sep2009

Sep2008

Sep2007

Consumer spending increased by 3.2 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter 2015, following growth of 3.3 per cent in June. Expenditure growth was greatest in recreational goods and vehicles and in furnishings and durable household equipment, up 8.4 per cent and 6.1 per cent respectively.

Housing prices rose steadily throughout 2015, reaching an eight-year high in September 2015. Housing starts increased by 12.4 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter, following an increase of 16.6 per cent in June. Building permits increased by 5.8 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter, following an increase of 21.3 per cent in June.

Economic overview


Trade-weighted exchange rate and manufacturing demand, United States

index

Trade-weighted index(US$) March 1973=100Value of manufacturers’new orders for capitalgoods index 2007–2012=100

75

85

105

95

Sep2015

Mar2014

Sep2012

Mar2011

Sep2009

Mar2008

After increasing by 6.5 per cent in 2014, new manufacturing orders fell by 4.1 per cent year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2015. The strong US dollar has negatively affected exports and consequently manufacturing demand. US exports are also constrained by weak demand in some trading partners, including Japan and the European Union, and by slowing growth in China, the third-largest destination for US exports. Merchandise exports increased in 2014 but fell by 6.0 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter 2015 and by 7.9 per cent in September.

The US Federal Reserve left the official interest rate unchanged in September, despite expectations it would raise the rate. Moderation of growth in China and the strong US dollar were cited as the main reasons for postponing the rate rise.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, economic growth in the United States is assumed to be 2.5 per cent in 2015, before strengthening to 3.0 per cent in 2016.

ChinaEconomic growth in China weakened in the first three quarters of 2015, with recent partial indicators pointing to further slowing in the short term.

The housing sector remains a drag on the economy but some indicators have improved. Value of sales of residential buildings increased by 27.4 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter following a rise of 29.7 per cent in June. These were the first two quarters of positive growth since December 2013. However, new housing starts declined year-on-year by 7.5 per cent in the September quarter. This was the seventh consecutive fall.

Weaker investment in real estate and manufacturing are slowing the industrial sector. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell below 50 during the September quarter. This follows an average of 50.2 in the June quarter and 49.9 in March. A PMI below 50 indicates a contraction of the manufacturing industry while a PMI above 50 indicates an expansion. Growth in fixed asset investment also slowed in the September quarter to 8.5 per cent year-on-year, from 10.5 per cent in June and 13.5 per cent in March.

Economic overview


Consumer sentiment recovered in the September quarter 2015. The Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator rose by 2.3 per cent year-on-year, following falls of 4.7 per cent in June and 4.8 per cent in March. Retail sales increased by around 15 per cent year-on-year in nominal terms in each of the March, June and September quarters. In 2014 retail sales growth averaged 12 per cent.

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index and Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator

indexindex

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’IndexWestpac MNI ChinaConsumer SentimentIndicator (right axis)

49

50

51

52

110

115

120

125

Sep2015

Jun2015

Mar2015

Dec2014

Sep2014

Jun2014

Mar2014

Dec2013

Sep2013

Jun2013

Mar2013

The value of Chinese exports fell by 5.9 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter following a fall of 2.2 per cent in June. However, imports also decreased year-on-year—falling by 14.4 per cent in the September quarter, the fourth consecutive fall. This larger fall in imports relative to exports contributed to China’s ongoing trade surplus.

A period of volatility in Chinese equity markets in mid 2015 increased uncertainty in China’s economic outlook. The Chinese Government has since implemented several measures to stimulate the economy. This new spending is worth up to 1.5 per cent of GDP and is largely financing additional infrastructure, particularly transport networks.

Shanghai stock market index

index

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000 Shanghai compositeindex, adjustedclosing price

Sep2015

Jun2015

Apr2015

Dec2014

Feb2014

Oct2014

Aug2014

Jun2014

Economic overview


The People’s Bank of China lowered the benchmark lending rate six times between November 2014 and October 2015, from 6 per cent to 4.35 per cent. At the same time, the bank loosened capital controls—including cutting the reserve requirement ratio to 17.5 per cent for most large banks and abolishing the ceiling on deposit rates.

Inflation in China remained below 2 per cent in the year to September. This provides room for further monetary easing to support economic growth.

In the last week of October 2015, Chinese leaders met to approve the 13th five-year plan. Outcomes of the plan include lowering the economic growth target from 7 per cent to 6.5 per cent annually for the next five years. The plan also promotes economic growth through the services industry and technological innovation over the traditional export and manufacturing industries.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, economic growth in China is assumed to grow by 6.8 per cent in 2015 before slowing to 6.5 per cent in 2016.

JapanReal GDP in Japan expanded by 1.0 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter 2015, the same as in June. This year-on-year improvement reflected a recovery from the sharp fall in economic activity in 2014.

Weak domestic consumption limited growth in the Japanese economy in the year to September 2015. Private consumption, which makes up about 60 per cent of Japanese economic activity, rose by 0.7 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter. Private residential investment rose by 5.7 per cent year-on-year, while investment in non-residential construction fell by 0.3 per cent.

Despite the low and declining unemployment rate, real wages fell steadily between 2012 and mid 2015. This constrained growth in private consumption. Real wages rose by 0.3 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter. The unemployment rate was 3.4 per cent in the September quarter, down from 3.6 per cent a year earlier. Much of the growth in employment was in part-time positions. In the September quarter 2015, the index of part-time employment increased by 4.4 per cent on average year-on-year, while full-time employment increased by only 1.0 per cent.

Industrial production, real exports and real effective exchange rate, year-on-year change, Japan

Real exports

%

Real e�ectiveexchange rate

Industrial production

–20

–15

–10

–5

0

5

10

Sep2015

Sep2014

Sep2013

Sep2012

Sep2011

Economic overview


Real exports grew by 2.9 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter 2015, following an increase of 1.8 per cent in June. This is largely a result of the weaker yen, which depreciated by 8.1 per cent year-on-year in trade-weighted terms in the September quarter.

Despite growth in exports, industrial production weakened by 0.4 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter following a fall of 0.5 per cent in June. According to the Bank of Japan’s September 2015 Tankan survey of Japanese enterprises, confidence in business conditions remained subdued among the largest enterprises in the quarter.

Economic growth in Japan is assumed to average 0.6 per cent in 2015 and 0.8 per cent in 2016.

EuropeEconomic growth in the eurozone was 1.6 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter, the same as in the June quarter. In the United Kingdom, economic growth was 2.3 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter down from 2.4 per cent in June.

Lower oil prices, together with supportive monetary and fiscal policies in the eurozone, strengthened domestic demand. Final consumption expenditure in the eurozone grew by 1.6 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter and it is expected to have been similiar in the September quarter. Domestic demand has been the main supporter of GDP growth in Europe since June 2014.

Contributions to eurozone GDP growth, year-on-year growth

Net exports

%

GDP growth

InvestmentGovernment consumptionPrivate consumption

–2

–1

0

1

2

3

Jun2015

Jun2014

Jun2013

Jun2012

Jun2011

Jun2010

Note: Change in inventories negligible.

Unemployment in the eurozone averaged 10.8 per cent in the September quarter 2015, down from 11.0 per cent in the June quarter and 11.2 per cent in the March quarter. Youth unemployment has remained consistently high since it reached a peak of 24.5 per cent in the March quarter 2013. However, it improved to 22.2 per cent in the September quarter 2015. Youth unemployment levels in several countries most affected by the European debt crisis—including Greece, Spain and Italy—were still consistently high at between 40 per cent and 50 per cent in the first three quarters of 2015.

Economic overview


Inflation in the eurozone in the first three quarters of 2015 remained below the European Central Bank (ECB) target of 2 per cent. This was mainly a result of cheaper energy and transport, but price growth was also weak across several other spending categories, including food, health, recreation and culture, and education. The quantitative easing programme announced in January 2015 increased inflationary expectations but did not boost price growth as much as anticipated. The ECB is expected to expand the programme in early 2016.

Export growth has been supported by economic recoveries in the United Kingdom and the United States, the main trading partners of the eurozone countries. However, increased domestic demand in Europe is likely to increase demand for imports, reversing net export growth. Net exports are not expected to contribute significantly to growth over the outlook period.

Since 2010 eurozone countries have committed to significant fiscal tightening to contain budget deficits and reduce sovereign debt. The European Commission expects debt relative to GDP to have peaked in 2015 before falling in 2016 as a result of stronger economic growth and rising inflation. Nevertheless, high levels of government debt in the eurozone will persist over the outlook period.

Debt-to-GDP ratios, Europe

%

GreeceItalyEurozoneGermanyUnited KingdomIreland

50

100

150

200

Jun2015

Jun2014

Jun2013

Jun2012

Jun2011

Jun2010

Jun2009

Jun2008

Jun2007

Jun2006

Economic activity in the eurozone is assumed to expand by 1.3 per cent in 2015 and 1.5 per cent in 2016. Growth in the United Kingdom is assumed to slow to 2.4 per cent in 2015 and ease to 2.3 per cent in 2016 as the economy returns to trend growth.

Economic overview


Non-OECD AsiaEconomic activity in non-OECD Asia moderated in 2015 partly in response to slower growth in the Chinese economy. Real economic growth was 6.3 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter, following growth of 6.5 per cent in the March quarter and 6.8 per cent in 2014 as a whole. India has exhibited high economic growth throughout 2015 but this has been partly offset by lower growth in the ASEAN economies.

Slower growth in the Chinese economy has weakened its import demand from trade partners. Taiwan’s industrial production, export orders and overseas shipments fell throughout 2015. It sends more than a quarter of its exports to China, so the economy is suffering as a result of slowing Chinese demand. The Singapore economy also slowed in response to weaker exports.

The Indonesian Government announced two deregulation packages in September in response to weaker growth of 4.7 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2015. The packages are aimed at improving activity in the business sector to curb capital outflows, attract new investment and increase domestic demand.

Economic growth in non-OECD Asia is assumed to average 6.3 per cent in both 2015 and 2016.

Economic growth in non-OECD Asia

2016a

2015a

2014

%


1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Vietnam

Thailand

Taiwan

Singapore

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

India

China

Economic prospects in AustraliaAustralia’s real economic growth was below trend in 2014–15 at 2.2 per cent, following growth of 2.5 per cent in 2013–14. Real GDP grew at 1.8 per cent in the June quarter and 2.7 per cent in the September quarter 2015 year-on-year.

Falling demand for Australia’s major commodity exports has continued to weaken mining industry profitability and consequently reduce investment. The price of Australia’s largest export, iron ore, fell to an average of US$54 a tonne in the September quarter, 40 per cent lower than a year earlier. Coal is Australia’s second-largest export. Its price fell by 15 per cent year-on-year to average US$62 a tonne in the September quarter.

Economic overview


The outlook for the Australian labour market was mixed in the September quarter. Private wages grew by 2.1 per cent year-on-year, the slowest growth observed since the wage growth series began in 1997–98. Unemployment averaged 6.2 per cent in the quarter, similar to the first two quarters of 2015. However, the seasonally adjusted participation rate increased to 65 per cent from 64.7 per cent in June. This was the highest participation rate recorded since the June quarter 2013. Low wage growth and elevated unemployment is expected to continue in the outlook period.

In preparing these agricultural commodity forecasts, Australian economic activity is assumed to expand at 2.5 per cent in 2015–16.

Australian economic indicators

%

Economic growth Inflation rate

Interest rate b

a ABARES assumption. b Large business weighted-average variable rate on credit outstanding.

1

2

3

4

5

2015–16a2014–152013–14

InflationThe consumer price index increased by 1.5 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter 2015, following an increase of 1.5 per cent in the June quarter and 1.3 per cent in the March quarter. This is below the Reserve Bank of Australia target of between 2 per cent and 3 per cent.

The most significant quarter-on-quarter price rises in September were in international holiday travel and accommodation (up 4.6 per cent), fruit (up 8.2 per cent) and property rates and charges (up 4.6 per cent). Partly offsetting these rises were falls in prices of vegetables (down 5.9 per cent), telecommunication equipment and services (down 2 per cent) and automotive fuel (down 1.7 per cent).

Inflation in Australia is assumed to average 2.1 per cent in 2015–16.

Economic overview


Short-term direction of the Australian dollarThe Australian dollar averaged US84 cents in 2014–15, down from US92 cents in 2013–14. In the first five months of 2015–16 it averaged US72 cents.

Australian terms of trade and exchange rates, quarterly

Exchange rate, USc/A$(right axis)

Terms of tradeindex 2013–14=100

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

index

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

USc/A$

Trade-weighted index (A$) May 1970=100

Sep2015

Mar2014

Sep2012

Mar2011

Sep2009

Mar2008

Sep2006

Mar2005

Australia’s terms of trade, the ratio of export prices to import prices, is an indicator of the fundamental value of the Australian dollar. The terms of trade index declined by 11 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter 2015, mainly reflecting continued weakening of prices for mineral resources on world markets. The value of the Australian dollar declined by 21.6 per cent against the US dollar and by 13.8 per cent on a trade-weighted basis in the year to the September quarter 2015. Commodity export prices are expected to remain low in the outlook period, maintaining downward pressure on the Australian dollar.

Differentials between interest rates in Australia and major world economies also influence demand for the Australian dollar. Despite record low official interest rates in Australia, commercial rates remain substantially higher than in Europe, Japan and the United States. This encourages international investors to seek higher returns in Australia, thereby maintaining demand for the Australian dollar. The continuation of asset purchasing programmes in Japan and the eurozone is expected to help keep interest rates low in those economies over the outlook period.

Movements in the Australian dollar are also influenced by changes in financial market sentiment towards the Australian economy and the outlook for major world economies. The softening of the Australian economy and weaker global demand for mineral resources in response to the moderation of economic growth in China continue to depress the Australian dollar.

Taking these factors into account, the Australian dollar is assumed to average US72 cents and to have a trade-weighted index value of 62 in 2015–16, compared with US84 cents and a trade-weighted index value of 67 in 2014–15.

Economic overview


Outlook for Australian agricultural and fisheries exportsTotal volume of farm production is forecast to fall by 1.8 per cent in 2015–16, following an estimated decrease of 0.3 per cent in 2014–15. A forecast increase in crop production in 2015–16 is expected to be more than offset by a forecast decline in livestock production from the record level of 2014–15. In 2015–16 the volume index of crop production is forecast to increase by 1.6 per cent, while the volume index of livestock production is forecast to decline by 4.8 per cent.

The index of unit returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to increase by 6.6 per cent in 2015–16, mainly resulting from an assumed lower value of the Australian dollar. This follows a rise of 6.3 per cent in 2014–15. Forecast increases in export prices (in Australian dollar terms) for beef and veal, wool, wine, lamb, live feeder/slaughter cattle, mutton and chickpeas are expected to more than offset forecast falls in prices for dairy products, wheat, barley and sugar.

Earnings from farm exports are forecast to increase by 0.9 per cent in 2015–16 to $44.0 billion. Export earnings in 2015–16 are expected to increase for wheat (up 3 per cent), wool (up 9 per cent), lamb (up 1 per cent), sugar (up 8 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (up 16 per cent) and chickpeas (up 56 per cent). These increases are expected to be partly offset by reduced export earnings for beef and veal (down 3 per cent), dairy (down 6 per cent), coarse grains (down 14 per cent), barley (down 15 per cent), canola (down 8 per cent), cotton (down 21 per cent) and mutton (down 2 per cent).

Export earnings for crops are forecast to increase to around $21.9 billion in 2015–16, from an estimated $21.7 billion in 2014–15. Export earnings for livestock and livestock products are forecast to increase to $22.1 billion, following an estimated rise of 20 per cent to $21.9 billion in 2014–15.

For fisheries products, export earnings are forecast to increase by 17 per cent to $1.7 billion, following an estimated increase of 10 per cent in 2014–15. Export earnings in 2015–16 are forecast to rise for salmonids (up 35 per cent), rock lobster (up 18 per cent) and tuna (up 7 per cent).

Economic overview


Major indicators of Australia’s agriculture and natural resources based sector

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015–11 –12 –13 –14 –15 s –16 f 2014–15 2015–16

Exchange rate US$/A$ 0.99 1.03 1.03 0.92 0.84 0.72 –8.7 –14.3

Farm index 100.0 100.4 98.1 105.5 112.1 119.5 6.3 6.6

Farm A$m 31 917 36 389 38 023 41 158 43 617 44 019 6.0 0.9– crops A$m 17 420 21 654 23 067 22 821 21 706 21 882 –4.9 0.8– livestock A$m 14 497 14 735 14 956 18 337 21 911 22 137 19.5 1.0Fisheries products A$m 1 248 1 227 1 175 1 304 1 440 1 684 10.4 17.0

Farm A$m 46 369 47 418 48 484 51 193 53 491 57 577 4.5 7.6– crops A$m 25 330 26 238 28 372 28 370 26 949 27 556 –5.0 2.3– livestock A$m 21 038 21 180 20 112 22 822 26 542 30 020 16.3 13.1Forestry and fisheries A$m 4 104 3 928 3 894 4 249 4 750 4 979 11.8 4.8– forestry A$m 1 856 1 624 1 516 1 789 1 955 1 985 9.3 1.5– fisheries A$m 2 248 2 305 2 378 2 460 2 796 2 994 13.6 7.1Volume of farm production c index 112.9 118.6 119.6 122.1 121.7 119.5 –0.3 –1.8– crops index 123.3 135.0 132.9 131.5 123.7 125.7 –5.9 1.6– livestock index 100.7 100.9 105.0 111.4 118.2 112.5 6.1 –4.8

Crop area (grains and oilseeds) ’000 ha 23 937 24 275 23 856 22 584 23 729 24 150 5.1 1.8Sheep million 73.1 74.7 75.5 72.6 70.3 71.2 –3.2 1.3Cattle million 28.5 28.4 29.3 29.1 27.0 26.7 –7.2 –1.1Farm costs A$m 36 505 37 249 37 181 38 140 38 465 39 315 0.9 2.2Net cash income d A$m 14 808 15 239 16 500 18 398 20 480 23 848 11.3 16.4Net value of farm production e A$m 9 863 10 169 11 303 13 053 15 025 18 262 15.1 21.5Farmers’ terms of trade g index 96.2 93.3 95.2 98.2 103.0 112.0 4.9 8.7

Agriculture, forestry and fishing ’000 334 319 299 309 315 na 2.0 naAustralia ’000 11 108 11 245 11 380 11 448 11 655 na 1.8 naa Base: 2010–11 = 100. b For a definition of the gross value of farm production see Table 13. c Chain weighted basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. d Gross value of farm production less total cash costs. e Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. f ABARES forecast. g Ratio of index of prices received by farmers and index of prices paid by farmers; base: 1997–98 = 100. na Not available. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Reserve Bank of Australia

Employment

MajorindicatorsofAustralia'sagricultureandnaturalresourcesbasedsectors

Australian export unit returns a

Gross value of production b

Production area and livestock numbers

% change previous year

Value of exports

Economic overview


Major Australian agricultural commodity exports

Price aValue ValueVolume

2015–16

2014–15s

2015–16f

$b

a Wheat, barley, canola, sugar, cotton and cheese are world indicator prices in US$. Beef and veal, lamb and mutton are saleyardprices in A$. All other commodities are export unit returns in A$. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.

Chickpeas

Mutton

Rock lobster

Cheese

Cotton

Canola

Live feeder/slaughter cattle

Sugar

Lamb

Barley

Wine

Wool

Wheat

Beef and veal

–3%

3%

9%

3%

–15%

1%

8%

16%

–8%

–21%

1%

18%

–2%

56%

–12%

2%

–4%

–3%

–7%

–3%

7%

–15%

–14%

–26%

1%

6%

–11%

21%

39%

–19%

10%

7%

–7%

9%

–3%

37%

0%

0%

–13%

11%

10%

29%

$8.86b

$5.55b

$3.15b

$1.98b

$2.14b

$1.70b

$1.34b

$1.16b

$1.35b

$1.55b

$0.82b

$0.69b

$0.78b

$0.41b

$8.60b

$5.70b

$3.45b

$2.05b

$1.82b

$1.71b

$1.44b

$1.35b

$1.25b

$1.23b

$0.83b

$0.82b

$0.76b

$0.65b

2 4 6 8 10

Economic overview


Seasonal conditions in AustraliaMatthew Miller, Dean Mansfield and Trish Gleeson

Since the beginning of September 2015, hot and dry conditions in many of Australia’s cropping regions have adversely affected winter crops at a critical stage of growth and development. Adverse seasonal conditions affected much of southern Australia in September and October but rainfall has been significant since the beginning of November. Cropping regions that received good falls were located in New South Wales, eastern Queensland, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. Rainfall arrived too late in some regions to benefit winter crop production but is expected to provide much needed moisture for pasture growth.

El Niño and other climate influences

Warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Indian Ocean countered the effects of El Niño until recently. In winter 2015 these warmer than average SSTs resulted in generally average to above average rainfall across much of eastern and southern Australia, except in Victoria, south-east South Australia and the far south-west of Western Australia.

However, an emerging positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during September 2015 resulted in El Niño becoming the dominant climate influence across much of Australia during spring 2015. This led to hot and dry conditions across much of eastern and southern Australia through to the end of October.

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up, released by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) on 10 November 2015, indicates that El Niño sea surface temperatures are likely to peak before the end of the year and then gradually ease in the first quarter of 2016. Most international climate models surveyed by the BoM expected the positive IOD to break down during November and early December.

If the positive IOD breaks down as forecast, the two dominant climate drivers for Australia are expected to be El Niño in the Pacific Ocean and warm waters across the central and southern Indian Ocean. These competing climate drivers may result in an above average rainfall outlook in the short term.

Rainfall and soil moisture

Rainfall in November 2015 was generally average to above average across much of Australia but below average across isolated areas of northern, central, south-east and south-west Australia and much of Tasmania (Map 1). Severely deficient to below average rainfall was recorded across southern Victoria, parts of northern South Australia, parts of southern and northern Western Australia, scattered areas of Queensland and the Northern Territory and much of Tasmania. Meanwhile, above average to extremely high rainfall was recorded across much of New South Wales, eastern South Australia, Western Australia and scattered areas of Queensland and the Northern Territory.

continued ...

Economic overview


Seasonal conditions in Australia continued

MAP 1 Rainfall deficiencies, 1 to 30 November 2015

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

90–100 Extremely high

Rainfall percentiles

70–80 Above average

80–90 Well above average

30–70 Average

Wheat–sheep zone

10–20 Well below average20–30 Below average

5–10 Extremely low0–5 Severe de�ciency

SouthAustralia

NorthernTerritory

Western Australia

Queensland

New SouthWales

Victoria

Australian Capital

Territory

Tasmania

Maps 2 and 3 show relative levels of modelled upper layer soil moisture (~0.1 metres) and lower layer soil moisture (~0.1 to ~1 metres) across Australia for November 2015. Most plant roots are in the top 0.2 metres of the soil profile. The level of soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile (0.1 metres) is therefore the best indicator of water availability, particularly for germinating plants. Upper layer soil moisture responds quickly to seasonal conditions and often shows a pattern that reflects rainfall and temperature events of the same month. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated events over longer periods. Crops and pastures once established can draw on this deeper soil moisture store throughout the growing season to support production.

Relative upper layer soil moisture for November 2015 was generally average to well above average across much of Australia (Map 2). Above average to extremely high relative soil moisture was recorded across much of New South Wales, eastern South Australia and Western Australia and scattered areas of Queensland and the Northern Territory. In contrast, relative upper layer soil moisture was extremely low to below average over much of southern Victoria and parts of southern and northern Western Australia, scattered areas of South Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory and much of Tasmania.

continued ...

Economic overview



For November 2015 relative upper layer soil moisture was generally average to extremely high across most cropping regions in Australia. This pattern of relative upper layer soil moisture reflected rainfall received to the end of November 2015.

MAP 2 Modelled upper layer soil moisture, November 2015

20–30

Relative soil moisture percentiles

70–8030–70

80–90

Wheat–sheep zone

90–100

SouthAustralia

NorthernTerritory

Western Australia

Queensland

New SouthWales

Victoria

Australian Capital

Territory

Tasmania

10–200–10

Below average

Above averageAverage

Well above averageExtremely high

Well below averageExtremely low

Note: Soil moisture estimates are relative to the long-term record and ranked in percentiles. Estimates areused to compare the upper layer soil moisture from November 2015 and are ranked according to percentilesfor each November in the 1911–2014 historical reference period. The extremely high band indicates where the estimated soil moisture level for November 2015 fell into the wettest 10 per cent of estimated soil moisture levels for November during the 1911–2014 historical long-term average. The extremely low band indicates where the estimated soil moisture levels for November 2015 fell into the driest 10 per cent ofestimated soil moisture levels for November during the 1911–2014 historical long-term average.Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Relative lower layer soil moisture for November 2015 was predominantly above average to extremely high across large areas of western, central and south-eastern Australia (Map 3). Areas modelled to have extremely low relative lower layer soil moisture levels decreased in size and intensity across large areas of northern Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia compared with the previous month.

For November 2015 relative lower layer soil moisture was predominantly average across Queensland cropping regions. NSW, SA and WA cropping regions showed predominantly average to above average relative lower layer soil moisture, while Victorian cropping regions showed a general trend towards below average levels.

continued ...

Economic overview



MAP 3 Modelled lower layer soil moisture, November 2015

20–30

Relative soil moisture percentiles

70–8030–70

80–90

Wheat–sheep zone

90–100

10–200–10

Below average

Above averageAverage

Well above averageExtremely high

Well below averageExtremely low

Note: Soil moisture estimates are relative to the long-term record and ranked in percentiles. Estimates areused to compare the lower layer soil moisture from November 2015 and are ranked according to percentilesfor each November in the 1911–2014 historical reference period. The extremely high band indicates wherethe estimated soil moisture level for November 2015 fell into the wettest 10 per cent of estimated soilmoisture levels for November during the 1911–2014 historical long-term average. The extremely low bandindicates where the estimated soil moisture levels for November 2015 fell into the driest 10 per cent ofestimated soil moisture levels for November during the 1911–2014 historical long-term average.Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

SouthAustralia

NorthernTerritory

Western Australia

Queensland

New SouthWales

Victoria

Australian Capital

Territory

Tasmania

In its latest national climate outlook for summer (December 2015 to February 2016), issued on 19 November 2015, the BoM forecast no strong tendency towards either above or below average summer rainfall across much of the country (Map 4). However, a drier than average summer is more likely across north-western Australia and northern Queensland, while above average summer rainfall is more likely across north-eastern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland. The chance of rainfall exceeding the median in summer cropping areas in eastern Australia is between 55 per cent and 75 per cent.

continued ...

Economic overview



MAP 4 Australian rainfall outlook, December 2015 to February 2016

Chance of exceeding themedian rainfall (%)

Wheat–sheep zone

80%

75%

70%

65%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

SouthAustralia

NorthernTerritory

Western Australia

Queensland

New SouthWales

Victoria

Australian Capital

Territory

Tasmania

Impacts on livestock and crop production

The assumed improvement in seasonal conditions in the second half of 2015–16 is expected to result in lower cattle and adult sheep slaughter rates and increased restocker demand as producers look to rebuild cattle herds and sheep flocks.

Dry seasonal conditions in many cattle producing regions resulted in high cattle slaughter rates in 2013–14 and 2014–15. The number of beef cattle at the beginning of 2015–16 was estimated to be around 24.2 million head, 8 per cent lower than in 2014–15 and the lowest opening inventory since 2010–11. Under the assumption of improved seasonal conditions in the second half of 2015–16, pasture carrying capacity is expected to improve and encourage producers to commence herd rebuilding. Favourable saleyard prices and strong international demand are forecast, so slaughter is not expected to decline significantly in the short term and herd rebuilding is expected to be gradual. The beef cattle herd will not rise to historical average levels for several years.

Sheep producers will also look to rebuild flocks in the second half of 2015–16 if seasonal conditions improve. Sheep and lamb numbers at the start of 2015–16 were estimated at 70.3 million head, down 3 per cent from 2014–15 opening numbers. Flock rebuilding commenced in the first half of the year in some sheep producing regions, particularly in New South Wales where pasture conditions and sheep carrying capacity had improved. In Victoria hot and dry conditions brought on by El Niño persisted and Victorian sheep slaughter rates in the September quarter 2015 were 16 per cent higher year-on-year. More widespread flock rebuilding is expected as El Niño conditions abate and seasonal conditions improve.

continued ...

Economic overview



Most summer cropping regions in northern New South Wales and Queensland are expected to increase area planted to summer crops as a result of favourable planting conditions. Total area planted to summer crops is forecast to increase by 12 per cent in 2015–16 to 1.2 million hectares, driven by forecast increases in area planted to grain sorghum and cotton. However, area planted to rice is forecast to decline significantly because of relatively low irrigation water availability in rice growing regions.

Dryland summer crop yields are forecast to be higher than in 2014–15. Increased production is forecast for major summer crops apart from rice. Australian grain sorghum production in 2015–16 is forecast to be 5 per cent higher than in 2014–15. Production of cotton lint and cottonseed are forecast to increase by 11 per cent in 2015–16, with recent rain in summer cropping regions in Queensland encouraging increased planting of dryland cotton. Corn and sunflower production are also forecast to increase by 6 per cent and 45 per cent, respectively. However, reduced allocations of irrigation water in southern New South Wales are expected to result in a large fall in area planted to rice. As a result, rice production is forecast to fall by 58 per cent year-on-year.

Economic overview


Farm cash income of broadacre farmsPeter Martin

Broadacre farms grow grains, oilseed or pulses or run sheep or beef cattle. In 2014–15 they accounted for 73 per cent of commercial-scale Australian farm businesses and an estimated 60 per cent of total gross value of Australian agricultural production. Broadacre farms are located in all regions across Australia and are vital to local economies.

ABARES interviews operators of around 1 600 broadacre farm businesses in its Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey (AAGIS) as part of its annual farm survey programme. AAGIS is targeted at commercial-scale broadacre farms—those that have an estimated value of agricultural output exceeding $40 000.

AAGIS data were used to estimate farm cash income of Australian broadacre farms by region in 2014–15 and projected farm cash incomes for 2015–16. ABARES uses the latest data available to produce estimates from its surveys. Estimates for 2014–15 are preliminary. They are based on full production and accounting information from farmers. However, ABARES may edit and include additional sample farms. Production benchmarks may also change. Projections for 2015–16 are based on data collected through on-farm and telephone interviews between September 2015 and December 2015. Estimates include crop and livestock production, receipts and expenditure up to the date of interview and expected production, receipts and expenditure for the remainder of the financial year. See ABARES (2015) for further details of ABARES farm survey methodology.

Farm cash income

Farm cash income is a measure of cash funds generated by the farm business for farm investment and consumption after paying all costs incurred in production. Costs include interest payments but exclude capital payments and payments to family workers. Farm cash income is a measure of short-term farm performance because it does not take into account the requirement to replace farm capital over time (depreciation) or changes in farm inventories.

Regional farm cash incomes

Farm cash income is projected to increase in most regions of Australia in 2015–16 (Table 1), with the exception of some regions subject to dry seasonal conditions during the 12 months to December 2015.

The increase in farm cash incomes in 2015–16 follows a rise in farm cash income in many regions in 2014–15 and is predominantly the result of higher prices for beef cattle. Beef cattle production is by far the most common and widely dispersed agricultural activity in Australia (around 57 per cent of all Australian farms carry beef cattle) (ABS 2015), so higher beef cattle prices result in increased farm cash incomes for a large proportion of Australian farms.

continued ...

Economic overview


Farm cash income of broadacre farms continued

Farm cash incomes in 2015–16 are also forecast to receive a boost from increased receipts from lambs, sheep and wool as a result of higher prices for these commodities. Grain and oilseed receipts are projected to rise—with higher prices forecast for barley and oilseed—and grain production is forecast to increase in some regions such as the North West Slopes and Plains of New South Wales.

In several regions subject to dry seasonal conditions during 2015–16—including the Murray Lands of South Australia, South East South Australia and the Central and South Wheat Belt of Western Australia (Map 1)—reduced receipts from grain are expected to be more than offset by increased receipts from beef cattle, sheep, lambs, wool and fodder crops. As a result, a small increase is projected in average farm cash income in these regions.

However, in other regions—including the Wimmera region of Victoria and Tasmania—reduced crop and livestock production resulting from dry seasonal conditions in 2015 is projected to result in a decrease in average farm cash income. Around 53 per cent of broadacre farms in the Wimmera region and 28 per cent in the Mallee region of Victoria are projected to have negative farm cash incomes in 2015–16.

Farm cash incomes increased in all Queensland regions in 2014–15 except the West and South West. The increase was partly achieved through a reduction in cattle herds as cattle turn-off increased in response to dry seasonal conditions and higher cattle prices in 2014–15.

Much of northern and western Queensland remained subject to dry conditions during the 12 months to December 2015. In the Cape York and Gulf of Carpentaria region beef cattle turn-off is projected to increase, resulting in a further increase in average farm cash income. Despite high cattle prices, little change is projected in average farm cash income in West and South West Queensland in 2015–16. Around 35 per cent of farms in West and South West Queensland are estimated to have recorded negative farm cash income in 2014–15 and this proportion is projected to remain similar in 2015–16. Elsewhere in Queensland, farm cash incomes are projected to increase in 2015–16 as a result of higher beef cattle prices and an increase in winter crop production in southern Queensland.

In the Northern Territory, increased prices for beef cattle and higher beef cattle turn-off are projected to result in further increases in average farm cash income in all regions.

continued ...

Economic overview



TABLE 1 Financial performance of broadacre farms, by region average per farm

ABARES regionFarm cash

income

Percentage of farms with negative farm

cash income2013–14 2014–15p 2015–16y 2014–15p 2015–16y

$ $ $ % %New South Wales111: NSW Far West 134 900 155 000 (18) 166 000 20 10121: NSW North West Slopes and Plains 103 200 103 000 (24) 213 000 22 17122: NSW Central West 115 700 170 000 (9) 179 000 5 12123: NSW Riverina 190 100 206 000 (9) 213 000 9 20131: NSW Tablelands 56 600 76 000 (20) 109 000 11 9132: NSW Coastal 7 100 30 000 (25) 48 000 31 15Victoria221: VIC Mallee 182 100 135 000 (21) 145 000 42 28222: VIC Wimmera 207 200 66 000 (26) 22 000 33 53223: VIC Central North 89 000 105 000 (12) 86 000 9 22231: VIC Southern and Eastern Victoria 47 600 95 000 (9) 97 000 11 10Queensland311: QLD Cape York and the Gulf 28 800 332 000 (28) 655 000 21 6312: QLD West and South West 167 300 127 000 (57) 113 000 35 35313: QLD Central North 91 700 126 000 (31) 147 000 34 19314: QLD Charleville–Longreach 80 400 185 000 (17) 278 000 17 14321: QLD Eastern Darling Downs 61 100 85 000 (15) 97 000 19 24322: QLD Darling Downs and Central Highlands

84 600 155 000 (13) 220 000 17 20

331: QLD South Queensland Coastal 42 600 56 000 (22) 93 000 21 20332: QLD North Queensland Coastal 21 100 96 000 (15) 94 000 7 12South Australia411: SA North Pastoral 184 100 233 000 (29) 442 000 3 0421: SA Eyre Peninsula 227 900 239 000 (42) 230 000 9 3422: SA Murray Lands and Yorke Peninsula 163 300 240 000 (18) 244 000 3 19431: SA South East 116 400 122 000 (20) 130 000 11 22Western Australia511: WA Kimberly 222 200 1 044 000 (31) 1 418 000 17 19512: WA Pilbara and Southern Rangelands 160 000 461 000 (114) 742 000 5 4521: WA Central and South Wheat Belt 332 500 352 000 (11) 314 000 7 12522: WA North and East Wheat Belt 356 900 343 000 (16) 370 000 24 15531: WA South West 25 900 75 000 (18) 109 000 10 5Tasmania 69 100 129 000 (10) 89 000 10 13Northern Territory711: NT Alice Springs District 148 200 386 000 (28) 456 000 0 0712: NT Barkly Tablelands 2 213 500 2 462 000 (40) 3 902 000 20 16713: NT Victoria River District–Katherine –25 200 402 000 (37) 823 000 18 0714: NT Top End Darwin and the Gulf 28 400 199 000 (73) 309 000 28 18p ABARES preliminary estimates. y ABARES provisional estimates. Note: Figures in parentheses are standard errors expressed as a percentage of the estimate provided. Source: Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey

continued ...

Economic overview



MAP 1 ABARES Australian broadacre zones and regions

311

313 332

314312

322331

321

132

131

121111

122123221

222 223231

631

431

422421

411

711

712

713511

714

512

522

521531

Pastoral zone

Wheat–sheep zone

High rainfall zone

Note: Each region is identi�ed by a unique code of three digits. The �rst digit identi�es the state or territory, the second digit identi�es the zone and the third digit identi�es the region.Source: ABARES

References

ABARES 2015, Australian farm survey results 2012–13 to 2014–15, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra, March, available at agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications.

ABS 2015, Agricultural commodities, Australia, 2013–14, cat. no. 7121.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, available at abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/7121.02013-14?OpenDocument.

agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/7121.02013-14?OpenDocument

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/7121.02013-14?OpenDocument


Key agricultural outcomes of the Trans-Pacific Partnership AgreementMatthew Hyde, Chloe White and Natasha Frawley

The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) aims to lower barriers to trade and investment between 12 countries in the Asia-Pacific region. This box discusses the key agricultural market access outcomes of the TPP for Australia.

The TPP covers several issues and sectors and aims to improve agricultural market access for its signatories: Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States and Vietnam. The agreed outcomes will eliminate more than 98 per cent of tariffs on all trade between the TPP countries. The agreement also has scope for other Asia-Pacific countries to join in the future, which could further increase opportunities for trade.

Negotiations for the TPP concluded on 5 October 2015 and the text of the agreement was publicly released on 5 November 2015. Australia and the other 11 countries that negotiated the TPP will undertake their own domestic treaty-making procedures to bring the agreement into effect. The TPP will enter into force 60 days after all original signatories have notified completion of these procedures. If this has not occurred within two years of signature, the agreement will enter into force 60 days after the expiry of that two-year period if at least six original signatories, accounting for 85 per cent of the combined gross domestic product of the original signatories, have ratified the agreement.

For Australia, some TPP outcomes will co-exist with existing trade agreements. In these cases exporters may choose the agreement under which they will export according to the preferential tariff rate or quota. Australian exporters will be able to benefit from the agreement that has the best access arrangements in any given year.

Summary tables of TPP agricultural outcomes for each country are provided at the end of this article.

Overview of Australian agricultural exports to Trans-Pacific Partnership countriesThe 12 countries that negotiated the TPP account for a significant share of world agricultural trade—around one-quarter of the value of world agricultural and fisheries exports in 2014. Japan is the largest net importer of agricultural products among the TPP countries. Canada and the United States also import large volumes of agricultural commodities, including horticulture, seafood and wine.

In 2014–15 the value of Australia’s agricultural exports to TPP countries was almost $15 billion, or 35 per cent of Australia’s total agricultural exports. Four countries accounted for more than 80 per cent of this trade: the United States (35 per cent of Australia’s TPP-bound exports), Japan (27 per cent), New Zealand (10 per cent) and Vietnam (9 per cent). In contrast, Australia’s agricultural exports to Mexico, Brunei Darussalam, Chile and Peru together accounted for less than 1 per cent of Australia’s TPP-bound exports at around $106 million.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_barriers


Australia’s most significant agricultural export to TPP countries in 2014–15 was beef and veal, which accounted for more than a third of TPP-bound trade in value terms. Other key products were grains, oilseed and pulses (13 per cent of TPP-bound exports), sheep meat (7 per cent), dairy products (7 per cent) and wine (6 per cent).

Australian agricultural exports to Trans-Pacific Partnership countries, 2014–15

Peru

Mexico

United States

Canada

Japan

Vietnam

Malaysia

Singapore

Australia

New Zealand

Chile$0.01b (0.1%)$1.56b (11%)

$0.01b (0.1%)

$0.06b (0.4%)

$5.11b (3

4%)

$0.55

b (4%

)

$0.03b(0.2%)

$1.34b(9%)

$3.94b(27%)

$1.03b(7%)

$1.21b(8%)

Brunei

Note: Percentages refer to the share of Australia’s total TPP-bound agricultural exports destined for that country.Sources: ABARES; ABS 2015; Department of Agriculture and Water Resources

Key agricultural outcomes of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement


Major Australian agricultural exports to Trans-Pacific Partnership countries, 2014–15

Exports to non-TPP countriesExports to TPP countries

$b

Sources: ABARES; ABS 2015; Department of Agriculture and Water Resources

83%

36%

58% 56% 56% 66%72%17%

64%

42% 44% 44% 34% 28%

Sugar

Horticulture

Wine

Dairy products

Sheep meat

Beef and veal

Grains, oilseedand pulses

2

4

6

8

10

12

Outcomes for key Australian agricultural exportsThe TPP includes multilateral tariff reductions that will apply to all TPP signatories, as well as bilateral outcomes, including country-specific quotas. Bilateral outcomes provide preferential access to Australia relative to other TPP signatories, while multilateral outcomes improve market access equally for all signatories.

Market access for Australia’s exports of beef, dairy products, sugar, rice, grains and wine will be improved under the TPP, with lower tariffs and expanded quota access in the United States, Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Canada, Mexico and Peru. Import tariffs on many of these commodities will be removed over periods of up to 15 years, with some products becoming tariff-free when the agreement enters into force.

Australia’s market access concessions under the TPP are limited, reflecting Australia’s already low tariff rates. When the agreement enters into force, Australia will remove its $1.22 a kilogram tariff on most cheeses and its 5 per cent tariffs on other products, including potatoes, some vegetable oils, table grapes and fruit juices for TPP countries.

Beef and vealTotal Australian beef and veal exports were valued at around $9 billion in 2014–15, and more than 60 per cent were destined for TPP markets. The United States and Japan were Australia’s two largest markets, with shipments valued at $3.2 billion and $1.9 billion respectively. Australia also exported beef and veal to Canada ($231 million), Malaysia ($68 million), Singapore ($67 million) and Mexico (around $6 million). Australia’s beef and veal exports already enter Malaysia and Singapore tariff-free under existing agreements. No beef and veal exports to Peru were recorded in 2014–15.



JapanJapan sourced almost all of its beef imports from TPP countries in 2014; Australia and the United States together supplied 91 per cent of Japan’s total imports. Under the TPP, Japan’s tariff on both chilled and frozen beef imports from all participating countries will be reduced from the current most favoured nation (MFN) rate of 38.5 per cent to 9 per cent over 15 years. By comparison, under the Japan–Australia Economic Partnership Agreement (JAEPA), tariffs on Australian chilled beef will be reduced to 23.5 per cent by 1 April 2031 and on frozen beef to 19.5 per cent by 1 April 2028. At 1 April 2015 tariffs on Australian chilled and frozen beef were 31.5 per cent and 28.5 per cent respectively.

The TPP will lower beef tariffs to 27.5 per cent for all signatories when it enters into force. However, if at that time the JAEPA tariff is below that rate, all signatories will be able to export beef at the JAEPA tariff rate.

Japan’s beef imports from all TPP signatories will be subject to a volume-based safeguard measure. Safeguard measures are designed to protect a country’s domestic industry from injury caused by imported product. In general, safeguard measures can be applied when the quantity of imports in a given year exceeds a pre-determined trigger volume or if the import unit price falls below a calculated import price. When the safeguard is triggered, the importing country has the option to increase the tariff rate for the remainder of that year. This is known as the safeguard tariff.

Japan’s beef safeguard under the TPP will be calculated based on total beef imports from all signatory countries. The safeguard volume will start at 590 000 tonnes in the first year. The safeguard tariff will be set at the MFN tariff rate of 38.5 per cent when the agreement enters into force and will be reduced gradually over 15 years. From year 16 onwards the safeguard tariff will be reduced by 1 per cent a year provided it was not applied in the previous year.

Safeguards are also applied under JAEPA, but the safeguard volume for beef is lower than under the TPP (and only applicable to Australia). JAEPA safeguards for chilled and frozen beef are 131 700 tonnes and 196 700 tonnes respectively. If the multilateral TPP safeguard is triggered, Australia will still be able to export up to its JAEPA safeguard volume at the preferential tariff rate.

United StatesThe TPP will eliminate the US price-based beef safeguard measure created under the Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA). The price-based safeguard would have been applied from 2023 onwards. Australian beef exports to the United States would have faced 17.16 per cent tariffs if the price of beef imported from Australia fell below a given trigger price for two consecutive months. The existing quantity-based beef safeguard (created under AUSFTA) will be unchanged under the TPP and will not apply from 2023.

Other Trans-Pacific Partnership countriesCanada, Mexico and Peru will eliminate all tariffs on beef imported from TPP countries over periods of up to 15 years. Current tariffs are 26.5 per cent in Canada, 25 per cent in Mexico and 17 per cent in Peru.



Grains, oilseed and pulsesExports of Australian grains, oilseed and pulses to TPP countries were valued at around $1.9 billion in 2014–15, or 17 per cent of total exports of these commodities. Wheat accounted for most shipments to TPP countries, at $1.2 billion in 2014–15. This was 22 per cent of total wheat exports. Major markets were Vietnam ($416 million), Japan ($305 million) and Malaysia ($294 million).

JapanJapan is the largest grain importer among the TPP countries and Australia, Canada and the United States all export to that market. Imported wheat and its products are subject to a multilateral tariff-free quota of 5.74 million tonnes, with an out-of-quota tariff of 55 yen a kilogram (approximately $576 a tonne). Imported barley and its products are subject to a tariff-free quota of 1.369 million tonnes, with an out-of-quota tariff of 39 yen a kilogram (approximately $408 a tonne).

Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) controls in-quota grain imports. MAFF imports wheat and rice through either a general tender process or the simultaneous buy–sell (SBS) system and barley solely through the SBS system. Imports under both systems are charged a mark-up, which is capped at a maximum of 17 yen a kilogram for wheat (around $178 a tonne at the 2014–15 average exchange rate) and 8 yen a kilogram ($84 a tonne) for barley. MAFF determines the mark-up in the general tender, and under the SBS system it is determined by a joint bid from the importer and end user.

Under the TPP, Japan will reduce the mark-up applied to both wheat and barley by 45 per cent over eight years, which will lower the maximum mark-up for wheat to 9.4 yen a kilogram (around $98 a tonne) and for barley to 4.4 yen a kilogram (around $46 a tonne).

For wheat, Australia will have access to a country-specific quota (CSQ) of 38 000 tonnes on entry into force, which will grow to 50 000 tonnes over six years. The United States and Canada will also have access to CSQs for wheat, with final volumes of 150 000 tonnes for the United States and 53 000 tonnes for Canada. These quota volumes are additional to the existing multilateral quotas. Japan will create a TPP-wide quota of 25 000 tonnes for barley imported under the SBS system. This will grow to 65 000 tonnes over eight years.

Under JAEPA, feed wheat and feed barley imported from Australia are permitted outside the MAFF state trading system and safeguard measures on these products have been removed. JAEPA also allows more varieties of Australian food wheat to be imported under the SBS system, which provides Australian exporters greater access to quotas created under that system in the TPP. The United States and Canada will obtain equivalent access under the TPP.

Japan’s multilateral quota for rice is smaller than for wheat or barley, at 682 000 tonnes. Under the TPP, Japan will create a 6 000-tonne CSQ for imports of Australian rice and rice products, with the quota expanding to 8 400 tonnes over 12 years. By comparison, the United States (the main source of Japanese rice imports) will gain access to an exclusive quota of 50 000 tonnes, which will grow to 70 000 tonnes over 12 years.



Other Trans-Pacific Partnership countriesVietnam and Malaysia will eliminate all applied tariffs on Australian grain by 2020 under the ASEAN–Australia–New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AANZFTA). Under the TPP Vietnam will remove all tariffs on grain imported from all parties within five years, with tariffs on wheat removed on entry into force. Malaysia already applies zero tariffs on all grains except rice, for which tariffs of 40 per cent will be eliminated over 10 years under the TPP.

Australian exports of grains, oilseed and pulses were valued at around $7 million to Canada and less than $1 million each to Mexico and Peru in 2014–15. Under the TPP, these countries will eliminate most tariffs on imported grains, oilseed and pulses.

Dairy productsAustralia exported $2.5 billion of dairy products in 2014–15, with around 44 per cent ($1.1 billion) destined for TPP countries. Cheese accounted for around half of Australia’s dairy product exports to TPP signatories.

Japan is the largest TPP market for Australia (44 per cent of TPP-bound exports). Singapore (22 per cent) and Malaysia (15 per cent) are also important export destinations. Imports of dairy products into Japan are subject to various quotas, with diverse tariff rates and administrative arrangements. Singaporean dairy imports are tariff-free. Malaysia has a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) on fresh milk but all other dairy imports sourced from Australia are tariff-free under AANZFTA.

Australian dairy exports will gain additional market access to Japan, the United States, Mexico and Canada under the TPP.

Australian dairy exports to Trans-Pacific Partnership countries by product, 2014–15

Butter 7%Other dairy products 17%

Whole milk powder 8%

Skim milk powder 19%

Cheese 49%

$1.1 billion

Source: ABS 2015

JapanJapan will eliminate or reduce several cheese tariffs, which are currently up to 40 per cent, and increase quota allocations for other cheese products. The TPP will also provide duty-free access for Australian fresh cheese (primarily mozzarella) to be blended with Japanese cheese and used for making shredded cheese. TPP quotas will be in addition to the country-specific quota for Australian unprocessed cheese under JAEPA. At 1 April 2015 the JAEPA quota for unprocessed cheese was 5 000 tonnes, and it will gradually increase to 20 000 tonnes at 1 April 2034.



JAEPA also created TRQs for other types of cheese, including grated and powdered cheese, processed cheese and unprocessed cheese for making shredded cheese. Quota limits will increase for the first 10 years of that agreement. Under the TPP, Japan’s whey tariffs will be eliminated over five to 20 years (depending on protein content) and an Australia-only quota for mineral concentrated whey will be created. Japan will also create new quotas for butter and skim milk powder, with two TPP-wide TRQs starting at 3 188 tonnes and growing to 3 719 tonnes over five years. It will create quotas and reduce tariffs for other dairy products, including ice cream, whole milk powder, condensed milk, yoghurt and infant formula.

United StatesThe United States is a relatively small market for Australian dairy exports, accounting for 5 per cent of TPP-bound exports in 2014–15 ($51 million). Under the TPP the United States will eliminate tariffs on infant formula and ice cream over 15 years. It will also phase out tariffs on Australian milk powders over 30 years and on Swiss cheese over 20 years, with bilateral safeguard measures to remain in place for 35 and 25 years respectively. An Australia-only tariff-rate quota will also apply to cream and ice cream, condensed milk, butter, cheeses and other dairy products. Existing preferential access available to Australia under AUSFTA will be transferred to the tariff-rate quotas to be created under the TPP.

MexicoAustralian dairy exports to Mexico in 2014–15 were valued at $10 million. Mexican tariffs of 20 per cent on yoghurt will be eliminated on entry into force of the TPP. Mexico will create new import quotas, including for butter (current tariffs 20 per cent), cheese (tariffs between 20 per cent and 45 per cent) and milk powders (tariffs of up to 60 per cent). A new milk and cream quota will be set at 250 000 tonnes in the first year, increasing to 375 000 tonnes over 10 years. Imports that exceed the quota level will be subject to MFN tariff rates. This quota will be accessible to all TPP countries excluding Chile, Peru and the United States, which has fully liberalised trade with Mexico through the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Smaller quotas have also been created for milk powder, evaporated milk, condensed milk, butter, cheese and other dairy products.

CanadaIn 2014–15 Australia’s dairy exports to Canada were valued at $2 million and comprised mostly whey. Under the TPP, Canada will create new quotas for several dairy products. It will eliminate tariffs on milk protein concentrates when the agreement enters into force, giving Australia the same market access as the United States. Canada and Australia have signed a bilateral agreement confirming that Australian milk protein concentrates can be used in Canadian food processing. This will protect Australian exporters from Canada imposing standards that require cheese to be made only of fluid milk.

SugarAustralian sugar exports in 2014–15 were valued at $1.3 billion; ABARES estimates that TPP countries accounted for around 28 per cent. Australia’s primary TPP markets were Japan (37 per cent of TPP-bound exports), Malaysia (20 per cent), Singapore (16 per cent) and the United States (16 per cent). Australian sugar already enters Singapore tariff-free.



The TPP will improve market access for Australian raw sugar in Japan because Japan will reduce the variable levy on high-polarity sugar for all TPP countries. The general levy on high-polarity sugar was 43 451 yen ($455) a tonne in the fourth quarter of 2015. Under JAEPA the levy was reduced to 42 128 yen ($441) a tonne for Australian sugar. Under the TPP the levy will be reduced by 1 500 yen ($16) a tonne for all TPP countries to 39 996 yen ($419) a tonne, based on current levies. Japan will also create a TPP-wide tariff-free quota of 500 tonnes for raw and refined sugar.

The Malaysian sugar industry is highly regulated. Malaysia applies price controls in both wholesale and retail sugar markets and a TRQ on imports. The TPP does not alter Malaysia’s TRQ arrangements for any country but Malaysia will give TPP countries preferential access to the distribution of refined sugar for use in food and beverage manufacturing.

In the United States, Australian exports will have access to a country-specific quota (CSQ) of 60 500 tonnes for raw sugar on entry into force of the TPP. This will be in addition to the existing World Trade Organization (WTO) quota of 87 000 tonnes. The new total quota of 147 500 tonnes will be equivalent to 4 per cent of Australia’s total sugar exports in 2014–15. The United States will also give Australia country-specific access to 23 per cent of any additional US sugar allocations above its existing trade agreement obligations, including its multilateral quota of 1.1 million tonnes. The Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade estimates that Australia’s raw sugar exports to the United States could exceed 400 000 tonnes by 2019–20 as a result (DFAT 2015a). Australia will also have access to a tariff-free CSQ of 4 500 tonnes for raw and refined sugar and sugar products.

Canada’s C$30.86 ($31.57) a tonne tariff on refined sugar will be eliminated within five years under the TPP. Mexico currently only opens its TRQ for raw sugar when it identifies a domestic shortage. Under the TPP, Australia will also gain exclusive access to 7 per cent of that TRQ in the years it is available.

WineIn 2014–15 Australian wine exports were valued at $2 billion, with nearly half destined for TPP signatories. The largest of these markets for Australian wine were the United States ($463 million) and Canada ($178 million). Australia also exported to New Zealand ($78 million), Singapore ($64 million), Japan ($44 million) and Malaysia ($42 million).

From 1 January 2015 all Australian wine exports to the United States have been tariff-free under AUSFTA. Chile, Canada, Mexico, Peru and Singapore also have tariff-free access to that market under existing FTAs. The TPP will benefit all wine-producing countries within 10 years of implementation, with the elimination of all tariffs on wine, beer and distilled spirits (currently up to around 12.4 per cent). New Zealand is the largest wine exporter in the TPP without an agreement with the United States. It has secured a bilateral concession to have several wine tariffs eliminated when the agreement enters into force. The remainder will be eliminated within three to five years.



In 2014–15 Canada was the fourth-largest export market for Australian wine by value. Australia does not have a bilateral trade agreement with Canada, so all wine exports face tariffs of between C1.87 cents and C4.68 cents (between 1.91c and 4.79c) a litre. These tariffs will be eliminated for all TPP countries when the agreement enters into force. Australia will then face the same tariffs as other large wine exporters, including the United States, and have an advantage over non-TPP wine exporters such as France, Italy and Spain.

Through AANZFTA and the Australia–New Zealand Closer Economic Relations Trade Agreement (ANZCER), all Australian wine exports to New Zealand and Singapore are tariff-free. For non-AANZFTA countries, New Zealand applies tariffs to wine imports of up to 5 per cent. It will eliminate these for all TPP countries when the agreement enters into force.

Under JAEPA, Australian wine exports face one of the lowest tariffs among TPP signatories, and Japan will eliminate these by 2025. Chile also benefits from its bilateral agreement with Japan. Within 10 years of the TPP entering into force, Japan will eliminate all wine tariffs—currently between 15 per cent and 29 per cent, or between 45 yen and 182 yen ($0.47 and $1.91) a litre. As a result both Chile and Australia will have a diminishing advantage in the Japanese market over other TPP wine exporters, such as the United States and New Zealand.

Australian exports of wine to Malaysia were valued at $42 million in 2014–15, making it Australia’s 10th-largest wine export destination by value. Malaysian wine imports are subject to tariffs of between 7 Malaysian ringgit and 23 Malaysian ringgit ($2.43 and $7.98) a litre. Under the TPP, all Malaysian tariffs on wine from TPP countries will be eliminated within 15 years.

Vietnam, Mexico and Peru are the remaining TPP signatories that have made concessions on wine. Australia currently exports very little wine to these markets.

HorticultureTotal Australian horticultural exports in 2014–15 were valued at $2.1 billion, with 34 per cent exported to TPP countries. The largest TPP markets were New Zealand ($196 million), the United States ($136 million), Japan ($130 million) and Singapore ($105 million).

Through AANZFTA and ANZCER, all Australian horticulture exports to New Zealand and Singapore are tariff-free. New Zealand will eliminate all of its horticulture tariffs for all parties when the TPP enters into force. Most tariffs are zero but some products from countries without an existing trade agreement with New Zealand face tariffs of 5 per cent.

Under AUSFTA, most of Australia’s horticultural exports to the United States have been tariff-free from 1 January 2015. For other TPP partners the United States has agreed to eliminate tariffs on several horticultural products within 15 years. This concession is likely to have little effect on Australian horticultural exports to the United States because other large horticultural exporters, including Canada, Mexico and Chile, already have tariff-free access.



Oranges, macadamia nuts and asparagus are the highest-value items exported from Australia to Japan. JAEPA eliminated many horticultural tariffs, including those on macadamia nuts (5 per cent) and asparagus (3 per cent). The out-of-season tariff on oranges (currently 16 per cent and applied for six months of the year) will be gradually eliminated for three of these months by 2025. Japan will eliminate many tariffs when the TPP enters into force, with the remainder to be eliminated within 15 years. The multilateral TPP concessions on oranges will be an improvement on the provisions in JAEPA. The 32 per cent in-season tariff will be eliminated within seven years. The lower out-of-season tariff will be immediately extended from six months to eight months and phased out within five years.

Malaysia, Vietnam, Canada, Mexico and Peru are the remaining TPP signatories that have made concessions on horticulture. Australia has free trade agreements with Malaysia and Vietnam, but its horticultural exports to those markets are limited. It also exports very little horticulture to Canada, Mexico and Peru.

SeafoodIn 2014–15 Australian total seafood exports were valued at $1.3 billion, with 77 per cent destined for TPP countries. Vietnam and Japan were Australia’s two largest TPP export destinations, with shipments valued at $716 million and $192 million respectively.

Vietnamese tariffs on seafood from all AANZFTA countries have been reduced significantly since the agreement came into force in 2010. Many tariffs are currently between 10 per cent and 35 per cent. They will continue to decrease to 5 per cent in 2022. All Vietnamese seafood tariffs will be eliminated when the TPP enters into force. This will lower tariffs faced by several other large seafood exporters, including the United States, Canada and Chile.

JAEPA eliminated all tariffs on prawns, rock lobster and abalone on 15 January 2015. Tariffs on other seafood products, such as southern bluefin tuna and Atlantic salmon, will be eliminated within 10 years. When the TPP enters into force, tariffs on several seafood products will be immediately eliminated. The remainder will be phased out over 15 years. At that time, Australian seafood exports will face increased competition from other large TPP seafood exporters, including Vietnam, the United States, Canada and Chile.

CottonAustralian cotton exports to TPP countries in 2014–15 accounted for 14 per cent of Australia’s total cotton exports of $1.5 billion. Vietnam was the main TPP market at $147 million. Exports to TPP countries other than Peru and the United States are currently tariff-free. Peru levies a 9 per cent tariff on raw cotton and the United States levies MFN tariffs of up to US31.4 cents (37.5c) a kilogram.

Australian exports of raw cotton to the United States are subject to tariffs of up to US12.2 cents (14.6c) a kilogram under AUSFTA. The TPP will not change these tariffs but they will be phased out by 2022. Peru’s 2014 imports of raw cotton were valued at US$135 million ($161 million) and almost entirely supplied by the United States. The United States has had a free trade agreement with Peru since 2009, which has provided tariff-free access for its raw cotton exports. Peru will eliminate its tariff on raw cotton for TPP signatories when the agreement enters into force.



The TPP will remove tariffs on manufactured cotton products, including yarn and apparel. The United States is a major importer of apparel. It will remove import tariffs of up to 23.5 per cent on apparel for TPP countries over 10 years. This concession could lead to an increase in US cotton apparel imports from Vietnam, which could in turn increase demand for imported raw cotton in Vietnam.

Trans-Pacific Partnership outcomes by countryThese tables summarise the main TPP outcomes for agricultural market access by country. The outcomes apply to all TPP signatories and existing rates refer to the MFN tariff rates (unless otherwise specified). Tables are not provided for Singapore and Brunei Darussalam because these countries do not apply tariffs on imports of any agricultural products.

TABLE 1 United States

Commodity Value of Australian exports (2014–15)

Market access outcomes

Beef and veal $3 240 million Elimination of price-based beef safeguard on imports of Australian beef created under AUSFTA.

Sugar $60 million Expansion of Australia’s CSQ on raw sugar by 60 500 tonnes.

Creation of CSQ of 4 500 tonnes for raw and refined sugar and sugar products.

Exclusive access to 23 per cent of future WTO quota expansions.

Dairy $51 million Elimination of all in-quota tariffs for dairy products on entry into force.

Elimination of all tariffs up to US$1.556 ($1.90) a kilogram on milk powders, infant formula, ice cream and some cheeses.

Safeguards to be applied on imports of Australian milk powders and Swiss cheese.

AUSFTA Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement. CSQ Country-specific quota. WTO World Trade Organization. Source: DFAT 2015b


TABLE 2 Japan



Beef and veal $1 922 million Tariffs of 38.5 per cent reduced to 9 per cent over 15 years, with imports subject to volume-based safeguard.

Grains, oilseed and pulses

$714 million Reduction of mark-up on wheat and barley by 45 per cent over eight years.

Creation of CSQ for Australian wheat, starting at 38 000 tonnes and growing to 50 000 tonnes over six years. Imports under this quota remain subject to Japan’s mark-up on wheat imports.

Creation of TPP-wide quota for barley, starting at 25 000 tonnes and increasing to 65 000 tonnes over eight years.

Creation of 72 000-tonne CSQ for unroasted malt and 3 000-tonne CSQ for roasted malt for Australia. Quota for unroasted malt will supersede the one provided under JAEPA (which commenced at 8 600 tonnes) until the JAEPA quota is higher than the TPP quota (1 April 2023), when the TPP quota will cease.

Creation of 6 000-tonne CSQ for Australian rice and rice products. Quota will increase to 8 400 tonnes over 12 years.

Dairy $480 million Elimination of tariffs on some cheeses.

Tariff reductions and additional quota volumes for remaining cheese products.

Creation of quotas for butter and skim milk powder with in-quota mark-up eliminated over 10 years.

Tariff reductions and new quotas for several other dairy products including ice cream, whole milk powder, condensed milk, yoghurt and infant formula.

Other livestock products

$294 million Elimination of most tariffs currently up to 12.7 per cent on offal.

Reduction of 30 per cent tariff on bovine cheek and head meat to 9 per cent over 15 years.

Elimination of tariffs of up to 50 per cent on processed meat products within 15 years.

Seafood $192 million Elimination of all seafood tariffs, currently up to 10 per cent, within 15 years.

Sugar $140 million Elimination of 103.1 yen a kilogram ($1 079 a tonne) tariff and reduction of levy, currently 43 451 yen ($455) a tonne, on imports of high-polarity sugar.

Creation of TPP-wide tariff-free quota of 500 tonnes for raw and refined sugar.

Horticulture $130 million Elimination of 16 per cent out-of-season tariff on oranges over five years. Tariff will apply for eight months a year (1 April to 30 November).

Elimination of higher in-season tariff of 32 per cent on oranges over seven years.

Elimination of tariffs of up to 23 yen a kilogram ($241 a tonne) on all fruit juices over 10 years.

Pig meat $2 million Elimination of ad valorem component, currently 4.3 per cent, of Japan’s pig meat tariffs over nine years.

Reduction of Japan’s specific tariff on pig meat imports (currently 361 yen a kilogram; $3 779 a tonne) by 90 per cent over nine years.

CSQ Country-specific quota. JAEPA Japan–Australia Economic Partnership Agreement. TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. Sources: ABARES, ABS 2015, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, DFAT 2015b



TABLE 3 New Zealand




$204 million Elimination of 5 per cent tariffs on several products including flours, cereals, starches, oilseed and prepared foods on entry into force.

Horticulture $196 million Elimination of 5 per cent tariffs on several products including honey, mushrooms, coffee, spices, preserved foods and fruit juices on entry into force.

Wine $78 million Elimination of 5 per cent tariffs on entry into force.

Beef and veal $73 million Elimination of 5 per cent tariffs on offal, pig meat and meat preparations on entry into force.

Dairy $71 million Elimination of tariffs of 5 per cent on yoghurt, milk and cream and whey on entry into force.

Sugar $39 million Elimination of 5 per cent tariffs on several products including lactose, artificial honey, infant food and chewing gum on entry into force.

Seafood $14 million Elimination of 5 per cent tariffs on canned products and pastes on entry into force.

Source: DFAT 2015b

TABLE 4 Vietnam



Seafood $716 million Elimination of tariffs of up to 35 per cent on all seafood on entry into force.

Wine $10 million Elimination of tariffs of up to 80 per cent over 10 years.

Sugar No trade recorded Elimination of in-quota tariffs of up to 25 per cent on entry into force.

Source: DFAT 2015b

TABLE 5 Malaysia



Sugar $75 million Australia to be allowed to engage in wholesale distribution of refined sugar in Malaysia for use in the food and beverage industry.

Wine $42 million Elimination of tariffs of up to 23 ringgit ($7.98) a litre over 15 years.

Pig meat $1 million Elimination of 50 per cent pig meat tariffs over 15 years.

Source: DFAT 2015b



TABLE 6 Canada



Beef and veal $231 million Elimination of 26.5 per cent beef tariffs over 10 years.

Wine $178 million Elimination of tariffs of between C1.87c and C4.68c (1.91c and 4.79c) a litre on entry into force.

Horticulture $17 million Elimination of tariffs of up to 19 per cent on all horticulture on entry into force.


$7 million Elimination of tariffs of up to 94.5 per cent on grains on entry into force.

Dairy $2 million Creation of TPP-wide quotas for cream, milk and cream powders, butter and cheese.

Elimination of tariffs of up to 11 per cent on milk protein concentrates on entry into force.

Sugar No trade recorded Elimination of C$30.86 ($31.60) a tonne tariff on refined sugar over five years.

TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement Source: DFAT 2015b

TABLE 7 Mexico



Sheep meat $23 million Elimination of tariffs of up to 10 per cent on sheep meat over eight years.

Dairy $10 million Creation of TPP-wide tariff-free quotas for milk powders, butter and cheese, increasing over 10 years.

Elimination of 20 per cent tariffs on yoghurt over 10 years.

Offal $9 million Elimination of 20 per cent tariff on other offal (excluding skirt steak) on entry into force.

Beef and veal $6 million Elimination of tariffs of up to 25 per cent on beef and veal over 10 years.


$1 million Elimination of 67 per cent tariff on wheat over 10 years.

Elimination of 115 per cent tariff on barley over five years.

Wine $1 million Elimination of 20 per cent tariffs over three years for higher quality wine and 10 years for all other wine.

Horticulture $34 000 Elimination of all horticulture tariffs of up to 20 per cent within 15 years, with most eliminated on entry into force.

Seafood No trade recorded Elimination of all seafood tariffs of up to 20 per cent within 15 years, with most eliminated on entry into force.

Pig meat No trade recorded Elimination of 20 per cent pig meat tariff on entry into force.

Sugar No trade recorded Allocation of 7 per cent of multilateral quota for Australian raw sugar.

TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement Source: DFAT 2015b



TABLE 8 Chile



Dairy products $2 million Elimination of 6 per cent tariffs on all dairy products within eight years, with exclusions for Canadian dairy products.


$42 000 Elimination of 6 per cent tariffs on all grains and oilseed on entry into force, except wheat (exempt) and rice.

Tariffs of 6 per cent on rice to be eliminated over eight years.

Sugar $18 000 Elimination of 6 per cent tariffs on sugar preparations within eight years. Raw sugar imports to remain subject to arrangements under Chile’s existing trade agreements.

Other agriculture $8 million Elimination of tariffs of up to 9.3 per cent on all other agricultural products within eight years.

Source: DFAT 2015b

TABLE 9 Peru



Grains, oilseed and pulses $1 million

Elimination of 9 per cent tariffs on several grains and products, including malt extract, over five years.

Wine $60 000Elimination of 9 per cent tariffs on table wine on entry into force, with tariffs on other wine eliminated over five years.

Horticulture No trade recordedElimination of many tariffs of up to 17 per cent for horticulture on entry into force, with the remainder to be eliminated over five years.

Beef and veal No trade recorded Elimination of 17 per cent tariff on beef over 10 years.

Source: DFAT 2015b

ReferencesABS 2015, ‘International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Sep 2015’, cat. no. 5368.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, available at abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/5368.0.

DFAT 2015a, ‘Outcomes: goods market access’, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Canberra, available at dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/tpp/outcomes-documents/Pages/outcomes-goods-market-access.aspx.

DFAT 2015b, ‘FTA text and associated documents’, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Canberra, available at dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/tpp/official-documents/Pages/official-documents.aspx.


http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/5368.0

http://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/tpp/outcomes-documents/Pages/outcomes-goods-market-access.aspx

http://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/tpp/outcomes-documents/Pages/outcomes-goods-market-access.aspx

Economic overview


Agriculture

Crops


The world coarse grainindicator price is forecast

to decline, re�ectingample world supplies.

3%to US$169/tin 2015–16

b

CROPS

The world oilseed indicator price is forecastto average lower as a result of an expectedbuild-up of world soybean stocks.

The world wheat indicator priceis forecast to fall, re�ecting ample world wheat supplies.19%

to US$215/tin 2015–16

a

11% to US$370/tin 2015–16

c

The world sugar indicatorprice is forecast to fall,re�ecting record world

carry-over stocks.3%

to USc 13/lbin 2015–16

d

The world indicator price forcotton is forecast to remain largely unchanged, re�ecting the o�setting e�ects of a forecast decline in world production and record world carry-over stocks.

0%to USc 71/lbin 2015–16

e

US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf.a

Wheat

Oilseeds

Cotton

Coarse grains

US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf.bUS no. 2 soybeans, fob Gulf.cIntercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract (Oct–Sep).dCotlook ‘A’ index.e

Sugar


WheatChristopher Price

• The world wheat indicator price is forecast to average US$215 a tonne in 2015–16, which would be the lowest in 10 years in real terms.

• World wheat supplies are expected to be ample in 2015–16, with abundant exportable supplies in some major exporting countries.

• The volume of world wheat trade is forecast to fall by around 1 per cent in 2015–16, with reduced import demand.

• Small increases are forecast for Australian wheat production and exports in 2015–16, despite the adverse impact on production of unfavourable seasonal conditions during spring.

Wheat indicator price lower in 2015–16The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf) is forecast to average US$215 a tonne in 2015–16, compared with US$266 a tonne in 2014–15. If realised, this would be the lowest annual average price in real terms since 2005–06.

World wheat supply and price

Opening stocks

Mt2015–16US$/t

US no. 2 hard redwinter, fob Gulf(right axis)

Production

f ABARES forecast.

200

400

600

800

1 000

100

200

300

400

500

2015–16f

2012–13

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

1994–95

Wheat


World wheat supply is forecast to increase in 2015–16, with higher opening stocks and an increase in production. International wheat prices continue to face downward pressure as a result of limited world import demand and plentiful exportable supplies in some of the major exporting countries. A strong US dollar continues to affect the competitiveness of US wheat on international markets and US wheat prices (including the world indicator price).

The world wheat indicator price has been relatively stable in recent months, trading between US$205 and US$230 a tonne. The northern hemisphere harvest is complete and harvesting is well underway in the southern hemisphere, so world supply for 2015–16 is relatively certain.

A modest rally in wheat prices through September and into October reflected concerns about adverse planting conditions for the 2016–17 northern hemisphere winter wheat crop. Concerns focused on the United States and parts of the Black Sea region, with dry conditions potentially influencing area planted and crop establishment.

Concerns eased somewhat following beneficial rainfall during October, although crop conditions continue to be well below average in Ukraine and parts of the Russian Federation. These crops are now close to entering dormancy, so little new information on conditions will be available until the northern hemisphere spring snow melt.

World wheat production increases in 2015–16World wheat production is forecast to increase by almost 1 per cent in 2015–16 to 727 million tonnes. Harvesting in the northern hemisphere is complete, with realised yields in some major producing countries slightly higher than forecast. This has resulted in a small upward revision to the forecast for world wheat production. Harvesting is at various stages of completion in the major producing countries of the southern hemisphere.

Among the major exporters, a large increase in production in 2015–16 is estimated for the Black Sea region (the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan) and a substantial decline is estimated for Canada and forecast for Argentina. Total wheat supply in the major exporting countries is expected to be 2 per cent higher in 2015–16, supported by higher opening stocks in all countries except Canada. Outside the major exporting countries, increased production in China, the Middle East and North Africa is expected to more than offset a decline in production in India.

Forecast change in wheat production, major exporters and rest of world, 2015–16

Volume change

Percentage change(right axis)

Mt %

0

–24

–16

–8

8

16

24

32

–6

–4

–2

0

2

4

6

8

rest of world

Argentina

Canada

Australia

United States

European Union

Black Sea region

Wheat


In the Black Sea region, wheat production is estimated to have risen by 5 per cent in 2015–16. Harvested area is estimated to have increased by 4 per cent, with yields higher than previously expected following positive harvest reports. Winter wheat yields in 2015–16 were generally lower than the unusually high yields realised in 2014–15. In contrast, favourable seasonal conditions resulted in increased spring wheat yields in many areas.

Wheat production in the European Union is estimated to have increased by almost 1 per cent in 2015–16 to 157 million tonnes. Despite mixed seasonal conditions, yields continued to be above average. Production estimates were revised upwards during harvesting because yields in many major producing countries exceeded expectations. Harvest quality was generally better than in the previous season, when it was adversely affected by heavy rainfall during harvest. Supply of milling-quality wheat has increased as a result of improved crop quality.

Wheat production in the United States is estimated to have risen by 1 per cent in 2015–16 to 56 million tonnes. Winter wheat production is estimated to have declined slightly, with an increase in hard red winter wheat production more than offset by reductions in soft red winter wheat area and yield. Overall quality of soft red winter wheat crop was affected by heavy rainfall at harvest time. Spring wheat production increased in 2015–16, reflecting an increase in harvested area.

In Canada, wheat production is estimated to have declined by 12 per cent in 2015–16 to 26 million tonnes. Yields were adversely affected by hot and dry seasonal conditions, especially in the Alberta and Saskatchewan provinces. Protein levels are high.

Wheat production in Argentina is forecast to fall by almost a quarter in 2015–16. However, if realised this would be somewhat offset by higher opening stocks. This forecast decline in production reflects a reduction in area. Wheat plantings in 2015–16 were limited by expected lower returns, uncertainty about government export policy and excessively dry conditions during much of the planting window. In some northern and central growing regions, dry conditions up to July were followed by heavy rainfall in August. Some planted area was lost to flooding and only partly replanted with wheat. October rainfall was timely for developing crops in most regions, and average yield for Argentina is forecast to increase by 1 per cent.

China and India are not major exporters of wheat but are major producers and consumers. Wheat production in China is estimated to have increased by 3 per cent in 2015–16, driven by higher yields. In India, production is estimated to have declined by 7 per cent. This is the largest year-on-year decline in more than a decade and reflects the combination of a reduction in planted area and the adverse impact on yield (and quality) of unfavourable conditions late in the growing season.

In the major importing regions of the Middle East and North Africa, improved seasonal conditions have supported estimated increases in production of 15 per cent (to 40 million tonnes) and 20 per cent (to 21 million tonnes) respectively.

Wheat


Increased food and feed use expected in 2015–16World consumption of wheat is forecast to rise by more than 1 per cent in 2015–16 to 720 million tonnes, with approximately equal contributions from continued growth in use of wheat for human consumption and an increase in use of wheat for feed.

Human consumption accounts for around two-thirds of total wheat use and is expected to increase by just over 1 per cent in 2015–16. Human consumption typically increases with world population, although consumption patterns vary around the world. Consumption has been shifting towards some developing countries in Asia and Africa as a result of population growth and increasing per person consumption. Increasing per person consumption of wheat is likely to be supported in 2015–16 by relatively low prices.

Use of wheat for feed is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2015–16 to 142 million tonnes, which if realised would be the largest volume of feed wheat consumption since 2011–12. Supplies of feed-quality wheat are expected to remain plentiful in the European Union and the Black Sea region, with considerable carry-over stocks from 2014–15 and a large volume of wheat production in 2015–16. In the European Union, reduced availability of feed alternatives such as corn is expected to further support the use of wheat for feed. In the United States, supply and use of wheat for feed are expected to increase in 2015–16 as a result of reduced quality of the soft red winter wheat harvest.

Use of wheat for feed, European Union

Use of wheat for feed

Mt €/t

Feed wheat price,EU average (right axis)Corn price, EU average(right axis)

f ABARES forecast. Note: Prices for 2015–16 are based on data for July 2015 to October 2015.

Price spread (right axis)

2015–16f2014–152013–142012–132011–122010–11

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Wheat


World trade to decline with reduced import demandThe volume of world wheat trade is forecast to fall by around 1 per cent in 2015–16 to 151 million tonnes. This forecast reflects reduced import demand, with increased domestic supplies in many importing countries, including in the Middle East and North Africa. Partially offsetting this are expected increased imports into Brazil, Indonesia and many sub-Saharan African countries. These expected increases reflect continuing growth in demand for milling wheat and decreased domestic crop quality in Brazil. Modest increases in feed wheat imports are also likely in some Asian countries, reflecting abundant world supplies of feed-quality wheat and relatively low prices.

Despite an expected reduction in world wheat trade, exports from the Black Sea region are forecast to increase by 14 per cent in 2015–16 to 45 million tonnes. The region has abundant exportable supplies. Export volumes are further supported by weakness in currencies, which increases competitiveness of exports from the region. Exports from Ukraine are forecast to rise by more than 30 per cent in 2015–16 to 15 million tonnes, while increases from the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan are expected to be more modest. As of 22 November, Ukraine had already exported 8.6 million tonnes of wheat. In the Russian Federation, a lowering of the wheat export tax in October further supports the expectation of increased exports in 2015–16.

Wheat exports from the Black Sea region, by country

Mt

Kazakhstan

Ukraine

Russian Federation

2015–16f

2012–13

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

f ABARES forecast.

10

20

30

40

50

Reduced world import demand and strong competition from Black Sea region exports are expected to result in reduced volumes of exports from the European Union and the United States in 2015–16. European Union exports to traditional key markets in the Middle East and North Africa are likely to be particularly affected. The strong US dollar in 2015–16 continues to affect competitiveness of US wheat on international markets. US exports during the marketing year to date have been slow. This has resulted in a downward revision to the forecast for exports in 2015–16.

Wheat


Exports, June–May marketing year, United States

Five-year average to 2014–152014–152015–16

Mt

5

10

15

20

25

30

30 May2016

28 Mar2016

25 Jan2016

30 Nov2015

28 Aug2015

29 Jun 2015

Lower exports are also expected from Canada in 2015–16 as a result of reduced exportable supplies. Canada produces high-quality milling wheat, which has relatively few substitutes on international markets. Demand for such wheat, combined with a significant depreciation in the Canadian dollar (especially against the US dollar), is expected to support exports in 2015–16.

In Argentina, exports are forecast to decline by just 4 per cent in 2015–16. Record carry-over stocks are partially offsetting the expected impact of lower production. Argentina is a significant exporter of milling wheat to Brazil, so export volumes are also expected to be supported by recent downgrades to crop quality in Brazil.

The recent presidential election result may support grain exports from Argentina. At least some degree of liberalisation in Argentina’s grain export arrangements is anticipated, but uncertainty around the nature and extent of reforms remains. Suggested reforms have included loosening quantitative restrictions on wheat and corn exports, reducing or eliminating export taxes on wheat, corn and soybeans, and permitting the Argentine peso to devalue. If introduced quickly, any of these reforms could result in wheat exports increasing in 2015–16.

World stocks to rise further in 2015–16World closing stocks of wheat in 2015–16 are forecast to be 4 per cent higher than in 2014–15 at 210 million tonnes. If realised, this would represent the third consecutive year of rising stocks and a cumulative increase of 23 per cent. The world stocks-to-use ratio is expected to increase by more than half a percentage point in 2015–16 to around 29 per cent.

Combined closing stocks in major exporting countries are expected to be higher in 2015–16, driven by rising stocks in the European Union and the United States. Closing stocks are also expected to be slightly higher in the Black Sea region, with high opening stocks and increased production more than offsetting increases in domestic consumption and exports.

Wheat


Closing stocks in China are forecast to be 14 per cent higher in 2015–16 at 74 million tonnes. For the first time in 14 years, stocks in China are expected to constitute more than half of the wheat held outside major exporting countries. Stocks in India are forecast to be lower again in 2015–16, declining by around a third but remaining above the level desired by the Indian Government.

World wheat closing stocks

Major exporters a

Rest of world

Mt %

Stocks-to-use ratio(right axis)

a Argentina, Australia, the Black Sea region, Canada, the European Union and the United States. b Disappearance de�ned as domestic consumption plus exports. f ABARES forecast.

10

20

30

40

50

50

100

150

200

250

Stocks-to-disappearanceratio for major exporters b (right axis)

2015–16f

2012–13

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

1994–95

Lowered expectations for Australian wheat production in 2015–16Prospects for 2015–16 wheat production weakened during spring, reflecting generally unfavourable seasonal conditions. Rainfall was below average in many cropping regions during September and early October and daytime temperatures were significantly above average in southern Australia during early October. Despite this, a small increase in Australian wheat production is expected compared with the previous season. However, outcomes between states and regions are expected to vary significantly.

Wheat production is forecast to rise by 1 per cent in 2015–16 to 24.0 million tonnes. Higher production is forecast in New South Wales and Queensland but lower production is forecast in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, compared with 2014–15. The largest percentage decline is expected to be in Victoria, where seasonal conditions had also been unfavourable during winter and prospects were already relatively poor at the beginning of spring.

Harvesting is largely complete in Queensland and is well underway in most other states. Crop quality has varied widely between states and regions for crops harvested to date. Crops in many regions have had high screenings and low protein levels. In contrast to much of the rest of Australia, wheat quality in Victoria has been generally good to date.

Wheat


Australian wheat production

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

QueenslandVictoria

South AustraliaNew South WalesWestern Australia

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

Small increase in Australian wheat exports forecast in 2015–16Volume of wheat exports from Australia is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2015–16 to 16.9 million tonnes. This forecast reflects slightly higher opening stocks, the forecast increase in production and demand growth in some key export markets. Value of exports is forecast to rise by 3 per cent to $5.7 billion, supported by an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar. If overall crop quality is worse than expected, export volumes and values are likely to be lower than currently forecast.

Growth in demand for milling wheat is expected to support Australian wheat exports to key markets in South-East Asia, including Indonesia. However, exporters of Australian wheat will face increased competition in 2015–16 from an expected rise in US wheat exports to the region, despite an overall decline in US wheat exports.

China is expected to continue importing modest amounts of high-quality milling wheat, mostly from Australia, Canada and the United States, despite record domestic production and rising stocks. Australian wheat exports to China will also face strong competition from US wheat exports in 2015–16, as is the case in South-East Asia.

Volume of Australian wheat exports to the Middle East and North Africa is expected to remain low in 2015–16. This results from reduced import demand in these regions and strong competition from exporters in the Black Sea region and the European Union, where supplies of wheat for export are expected to be plentiful. Exports to the Middle East and North Africa accounted for 17 per cent of Australian wheat exports in 2014–15 and just 13 per cent in the first quarter of 2015–16. This compares with an average of 26 per cent over the 10 years to 2013–14.

Wheat


Australian wheat exports, by destination

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

Rest of worldMiddle East andNorth AfricaNorth-East AsiaSouth-East Asia

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

5

10

15

20

25

Australian wheat exports to India accounted for a significant share of Australian wheat exports in the final quarter of 2014–15 and the first quarter of 2015–16 but are not expected to do so during the remainder of 2015–16. This is because of an increase in the wheat import duty. India imported high-quality milling wheat (mostly from Australia) to blend with domestic supplies following quality issues with its domestic harvest in March and April. However, the Indian Government introduced a 10 per cent wheat import duty in August, which slowed imports. It increased the duty to 25 per cent in October, making further imports uneconomic at prevailing domestic prices.

Australian wheat exports to India, monthly

kt

Export volume

%

Share of Australianwheat exports (right axis)

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Sep2015

Jul2015

May2015

Mar2015

Jan2015

Nov2014

Sep2014

Jul2014

Wheat


Outlook for wheat

O tl k f h tOutlookforwheatit 2013 14 2014 15 2015 16 f % changeunit 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f % change

WorldProduction Mt 714 723 727 0 6WorldProduction Mt 714 723 727 0.6– Black Sea region a Mt 88 3 96 8 102 5 4– Black Sea region a Mt 88.3 96.8 102 5.4– China Mt 122 126 130 3.2– European Union Mt 143 156 157 0.6– European Union Mt 143 156 157 0.6India Mt 93 5 95 9 88 9 –7 3– India Mt 93.5 95.9 88.9 –7.3U i d S M 58 1 55 1 55 8 1 3– United States Mt 58.1 55.1 55.8 1.3

Consumption Mt 696 710 720 1.4Consumption Mt 696 710 720 1.4– human Mt 472 478 484 1 3– human Mt 472 478 484 1.3feed Mt 129 136 142 4 4– feed Mt 129 136 142 4.4

Closing stocks Mt 189 202 210 4.0Closing stocksStocks‐to‐use ratio % 27.1 28.5 29.1Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 27.1 28.5 29.1Trade Mt 156 153 151 1 3Trade Mt 156 153 151 –1.3E t bExports b– Argentina Mt 2.5 5.4 5.2 –3.7 Argentina Mt 2.5 5.4 5.2 3.7– Australia c Mt 18 3 16 6 16 9 1 8– Australia c Mt 18.3 16.6 16.9 1.8Black Sea region a Mt 36 3 39 3 44 8 14 0– Black Sea region a Mt 36.3 39.3 44.8 14.0

kh – Kazakhstan Mt 8.4 5.9 6.5 10.2Mt 8.4 5.9 6.5 10.2 – Russian Federation Mt 18.5 22.2 23.5 5.9 Russian Federation Mt 18.5 22.2 23.5 5.9– Ukraine Mt 9 5 11 2 14 8 32 1 – Ukraine Mt 9.5 11.2 14.8 32.1C d– Canada Mt 23.5 23.9 20.0 –16.3

– European Union Mt 32.8 36.3 33.0 –9.1 European Union Mt 32.8 36.3 33.0 9.1– United States Mt 32 0 23 2 21 8 –6 0– United States Mt 32.0 23.2 21.8 –6.0P i d US$/t 317 266 215 19 2Price d US$/t 317 266 215 –19.2AustraliaArea ’000 ha 12 613 13 810 13 793 –0.1AustraliaArea 000 ha 12 613 13 810 13 793 –0.1Production kt 25 303 23 666 23 982 1 3Production kt 25 303 23 666 23 982 1.3E tExports c kt 18 336 16 571 16 948 2.3– value A$m 6 103 5 547 5 698 2.7 value A$m 6 103 5 547 5 698 2.7APW 10 net pool return A$/t 334 326 319 –2 1APW 10 net pool return A$/t 334 326 319 –2.1R i F d ti Uk i d K kh t b L l k ti J l Ja Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. b Local marketing years. c July–June years.

d US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf, July–June. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.d US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf, July June. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Grains Council; United StatesSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Grains Council; United States Department of AgricultureDepartment of Agriculture


• World coarse grain prices are forecast to decline in 2015–16, reflecting ample world supply.

• Coarse grain production in 2015–16 is forecast to be the third-highest on record.• World trade in coarse grains is forecast to fall by 9 per cent, largely resulting from

a fall in expected imports to China.• Australian coarse grain production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to

12.2 million tonnes, reflecting an increase in planted area.

World coarse grain prices to average lower in 2015–16The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf) is forecast to average 3 per cent lower in 2015–16 at US$169 a tonne. The world indicator price for barley (France feed barley, fob Rouen) is forecast to average 7 per cent lower in 2015–16 at US$190 a tonne.

These reductions in prices largely reflect the high level of world coarse grain supplies, lower import demand from China and substitution of feed wheat for coarse grains in livestock feed in the Black Sea region and the European Union. Following record high production in 2014–15, opening stocks of coarse grains in 2015–16 were the highest in the past 27 years. World production of coarse grains in 2015–16 is forecast to be 1 270 million tonnes, the third-highest level on record.

From July to November 2015 US corn prices averaged $174 a tonne, similar to the average price for the same period the previous year. From July to mid August prices trended downwards, reflecting expectations of a large northern hemisphere harvest. As the harvest in the northern hemisphere progressed through September and October, prices rebounded in response to adverse weather conditions and expectations of lower yields. Concerns eased in November, with harvest nearing completion for northern hemisphere producers and more favourable seasonal conditions. Prices are forecast to fall in the near term in response to expected ample world supplies and relatively unchanged world consumption.

Coarse grainsKyann Zhang

Coarse grains


World coarse grain prices

2015–16US$/t

f ABARES forecast.

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

US no. 2 yellow corn,fob GulfFrance feed barley,fob Rouen

Production of coarse grains remains relatively high but forecast to fallWorld production of coarse grains is forecast to fall by 2 per cent in 2015–16 to 1 270 million tonnes, mainly as a result of reductions in corn production in the key producing regions of the Black Sea, the European Union and North America as a result of unfavourable weather conditions. Despite this, the high level of carry-over stocks following record harvests in 2014–15 will ensure world supply of coarse grains remains ample.

CornWorld corn production is forecast to fall by 3 per cent in 2015–16 to 975 million tonnes. World harvested area has remained largely unchanged from 2014–15. However, yields in major corn producing countries, including Argentina, Brazil and the European Union, have been significantly lower than those of 2014–15.

Largest world corn producers

Mt

f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

RussianFederation

India

Ukraine

Mexico

Argentina

EuropeanUnion

Brazil

China

UnitedStates

2015–16f

2014–15s

Coarse grains


Corn production in the United States is forecast to fall by 4 per cent to 347 million tonnes in 2015–16, following a decline in area harvested by 3 per cent to 326 million hectares. Yields in the United States are estimated to average around 10.6 tonnes a hectare, slightly below the 2014–15 average.

Production of corn in China is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2015–16 to 225 million tonnes. Since 2008 the Chinese Government has placed a minimum price on corn to prevent price falls discouraging farmers from planting. This reserve price reached a historical peak of RMB 2 250 (around US$352) in 2014 and led to high reserve stocks of corn. In September 2015 the Chinese Government lowered the reserve price for corn by 11 per cent to RMB 2 000 (around US$312) a tonne. However, this is only expected to marginally affect corn producers’ planting decisions.

In the European Union, corn production is forecast to be 24 per cent lower in 2015–16 at 57.8 million tonnes as a result of adverse seasonal conditions in major growing regions. Average yields are expected to fall by 22 per cent to 6.2 tonnes a hectare. Harvested area is also forecast to be lower at 9.3 million hectares, 3 per cent down from 2014–15.

Corn production in the Black Sea Region is forecast to fall by 20 per cent to 23 million tonnes. This follows a contraction of 13 per cent in area harvested to 4 million hectares and a slight decline in yields to 6 tonnes a hectare from 6.15 tonnes a hectare in 2014–15. The reduction in area planted to corn was partly the result of the significant depreciation of the Ukrainian currency, which increased the price of imported inputs at the time of planting.

BarleyWorld barley production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2015–16 to 145 million tonnes. Production levels in major exporting regions have been mixed, with growth in Australia, Argentina and Canada partially offset by falls in the Black Sea region.

In the European Union, concerns over potential yield early in the harvest period were alleviated by favourable weather conditions as harvest progressed. Production is estimated to be 60.1 million tonnes, similar to that of 2014–15.

Production of barley in Canada is estimated to have increased by 7 per cent in 2015–16. This reflects both an expected increase in area harvested from 2.1 million hectares to 2.4 million hectares and higher yields.

Barley production in Ukraine and the Russian Federation in 2015–16 is estimated to have fallen by 8 per cent and 17 per cent respectively as a result of unfavourable seasonal conditions. Production is estimated to be 8.7 million tonnes in Ukraine and 16.7 million tonnes in the Russian Federation.

World coarse grain consumption largely unchangedWorld coarse grain consumption is forecast to increase by less than 1 per cent in 2015–16 to 1 265 million tonnes. This largely reflects a slowdown in growth of industrial use of corn, particularly in production of ethanol.

CornWorld consumption of corn in 2015–16 is forecast to increase by 1 per cent to 975 million tonnes. Consumption of corn as livestock feed is forecast to rise by 2 per cent to 596 million tonnes, but consumption of corn for industrial use is expected to remain around the same level as 2014–15.

Coarse grains


In the United States, total corn consumption in 2015–16 is forecast to be largely unchanged at 301 million tonnes—with consumption for both feed and non-feed expected to remain close to 2014–15 levels. Use of corn in ethanol production in the United States is forecast to fall by around 1 per cent to 131 million tonnes. Despite this, the level of corn used in US ethanol production in 2015–16 is forecast to remain 3 per cent above the five-year average of 128 million tonnes. The fall in corn use in ethanol production is expected to be largely offset by an expected increase in use of corn as food and seed.

Consumption of corn in the European Union is forecast to fall by 3 per cent to 75 million tonnes. This results from an expected contraction of 2.5 million tonnes in use of corn as livestock feed. Livestock producers are expected to substitute wheat for corn as feed grain because of abundant availability of feed wheat in the region relative to corn.

Corn consumption in China is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2015–16 to 215 million tonnes, with 150 million tonnes expected to be consumed as livestock feed. This would be an increase of 7 per cent from 2014–15. This growth in consumption is expected to largely consist of domestically produced corn because the lower reserve price would improve its competitiveness against imported feed grains. In November the Chinese Government introduced import permits on corn substitutes—including barley and grain sorghum—to restrict supply of imported feed grains and support an increase in demand for domestically produced corn.

Corn consumption in China

Food, seed and industrial

Feed

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

50

100

150

200

250

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

BarleyWorld consumption of barley is forecast to fall by 1 per cent in 2015–16 to 140 million tonnes. Feed consumption is forecast to fall by 3 per cent to 92 million tonnes. Barley consumption in China is forecast to fall by more than 26 per cent to 8.4 million tonnes, from a high of 11.4 million tonnes in 2014–15. This would be a result of increased competiveness of domestic corn as feed stock in China following the lowering of the reserve corn price.

Coarse grains


Consumption of barley in the Black Sea region is forecast to fall following lower production in Ukraine and the Russian Federation. Abundant availability and the relatively lower price of wheat is expected to encourage livestock producers to substitute wheat for barley as feed.

Grain sorghumWorld grain sorghum consumption is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to 65 million tonnes. In the United States, grain sorghum consumption is expected to increase by more than 3.4 million tonnes, as domestic grain sorghum prices fall following a large harvest. More than 2 million tonnes of grain sorghum consumed in the United States is expected to go to industrial purposes. Ethanol producers are expected to switch from corn to grain sorghum because the fall in the price of grain sorghum (around 10 per cent) is larger than that for corn (2 per cent).

In China, grain sorghum consumption in 2015–16 is forecast to fall by 2.9 million tonnes as a result of an expected fall in use of imported grain sorghum as feedstock. The lowered domestic reserve price for corn is expected to encourage livestock producers to use domestically-produced corn in feed.

World coarse grain trade to fallWorld trade in coarse grains is forecast to decline by 9 per cent in 2015–16 to 163 million tonnes. This largely reflects the significant fall in coarse grain imports by China, resulting from Chinese Government measures to encourage domestic livestock producers to use domestically-produced corn as feed grain in place of imported corn substitutes.

CornWorld trade in corn is forecast to fall by 13 per cent to 119 million tonnes in 2015–16, following extremely high exports in 2014–15. Corn exports from the United States are forecast to fall by 3 per cent to 45.7 million tonnes. This is in part a result of the strong US dollar, which has reduced the competitiveness of US exports.

Largest world corn exporters

2015–16f2014–152013–14

Mt

10

20

30

40

50

EuropeanUnion

RussianFederation

ArgentinaUkraineBrazilUnitedStates

f ABARES forecast.

Coarse grains


Exports of corn from Brazil in 2014–15 reached a record high of 31 million tonnes, reflecting a robust harvest and a weak Brazilian currency. In 2015–16 exports are forecast to fall by 20 per cent to 25 million tonnes as a result of forecast lower production. This would still be well above the 10-year average.

Corn exports from Argentina are forecast to fall by 6 per cent to 16 million tonnes. Argentina’s export policies may be revised following the November election. Many exporters in Argentina have chosen to hold supplies until any policy changes are known. This has lowered trade volume in recent months. Corn exports may rise if the newly-elected government implements policies to liberalise Argentina’s corn trade.

BarleyWorld trade in barley is forecast to decline by 7 per cent to 27 million tonnes as demand from major importing countries is forecast to contract in 2015–16. Imports into China are expected to fall by 30 per cent to 7 million tonnes, as a result of falling demand by livestock producers following the revision of the domestic corn reserve price. Import permits for corn substitutes—including barley and grain sorghum—introduced by the Chinese Government to restrict imported feed grains are also expected to lower volume of barley trade to China.

Barley imports into Saudi Arabia are expected to fall by 200 000 tonnes, as the Saudi Government aims to reduce use of barley in animal feed.

World coarse grain closing stocks to increaseIn 2015–16 world coarse grain closing stocks are forecast to increase by 2 per cent to 247 million tonnes, as world production is expected to exceed world consumption by over 4 million tonnes. Increases in stocks are expected in Canada, China and the United States, while stocks are expected to fall in the European Union, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine.

World stocks by country

2015–16f2014–152013–14

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

20

40

60

80

100

120

UkraineEuropeanUnion

ArgentinaBrazilCanadaUnitedStates

China

Coarse grains


World closing stocks of corn are forecast to increase by 2 per cent to 212 million tonnes. Stocks in China are expected to grow by 14 per cent to 114 million tonnes, as production continues to outpace consumption. Stocks are forecast to decline in other major corn producing regions, including Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine and the European Union. However, the increase in China’s corn stock would outweigh these declines.

World closing stocks of barley are forecast to fall by 1 per cent to 23.7 million tonnes. Barley stocks in the Black Sea region are expected to fall as a result of the reduction in domestic production. This would be partially offset by increased stocks in Australia and Brazil.

Total world stocks

Grain sorghumBarleyCorn

OatsOther

Mt

50

100

150

200

250

f ABARES forecast.

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Australian production to increase in 2015–16Australian coarse grains production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2015–16 to 12.2 million tonnes, largely reflecting an increase in planted area.

Barley production in Australia is forecast to rise by 2 per cent in 2015–16 to around 8.2 million tonnes. This reflects a 4 per cent increase in planted area. Grain sorghum production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent to 2.2 million tonnes. Heavy November rainfall improved soil moisture levels in major grain sorghum growing regions and set up favourable planting conditions. However, expected returns from growing cotton are high relative to those from grain sorghum so competition for available land is expected.

Coarse grain exports to fall following lower demandTotal coarse grain exports are forecast to fall by 8 per cent in 2015–16 to 7.2 million tonnes, with exports of barley and grain sorghum expected to fall. This forecast reflects an expected fall in import demand from China. Chinese livestock producers are expected to switch to domestically grown corn for feed grain as a result of Chinese Government decisions in September to lower the corn reserve price and introduce permits for importation of barley and grain sorghum into China.

Coarse grains


BarleyAustralian exports of barley are forecast to fall by 7 per cent in 2015–16 to around 5.8 million tonnes. This forecast fall largely reflects an expected fall in import demand from China, a major destination for Australian coarse grain exports. Australian barley exports to China remained strong in the first quarter of 2015–16 (June to September) but this was largely the result of importers fulfilling existing contracts. Many importers in China hold large reserves of barley and are expected to reduce barley imports over the remainder of 2015–16, compared with 2014–15.

In 2014–15 the largest importer of Australian barley exports was China (58 per cent), followed by Japan (7 per cent). The share of Australian barley exports going to China has risen in recent years and resulted in higher export prices for Australian barley. Imports of barley into China are forecast to fall, and as a result the export price of Australian barley is expected to fall.

Australian barley exports by destination

Saudi ArabiaJapanChina

Mt

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

2014–15

2013–14

2012–13

2011–12

2010–11

2009–10

Grain sorghumExports of grain sorghum are forecast to fall by 17 per cent in 2015–16 to 968 000 tonnes. Imports of Australian grain sorghum into China in the first quarter of 2015–16 were equivalent to almost 60 per cent of total imports in 2014–15. However, this import rate is not expected to continue after the Chinese Government lowered the reserve price for domestically grown corn in September and introduced permits for importation of grain sorghum from November. Importers in China hold large stocks of grain sorghum and are expected to reduce imports over the remainder of 2015–16, compared with 2014–15.

Coarse grains


Outlook for coarse grains

O tl k f iOutlookforcoarsegrainsit 2013 14 2014 15 2015 16 f % change

gunit 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f % change

WorldProduction Mt 1 282 1 296 1 270 –2 0WorldProduction Mt 1 282 1 296 1 270 –2.0barley Mt 145 141 145 2 8– barley Mt 145 141 145 2.8

– corn Mt 991 1 007 975 –3.2Consumption Mt 1 230 1 261 1 265 0.3Consumption Mt 1 230 1 261 1 265 0.3Trade Mt 164 180 163 –9 4Trade Mt 164 180 163 –9.4Cl i k M 212 243 247 1 6Closing stocks Mt 212 243 247 1.6gStocks‐to‐use ratio % 17 19 20Stocks to use ratio % 17 19 20Corn price a(fob G lf) US$/t 219 174 169 2 9Corn price a (fob Gulf) US$/t 219 174 169 –2.9Barley price b(fob Rouen) US$/t 242 204 190 –6.9Barley price b (fob Rouen) US$/t 242 204 190 –6.9AustraliaA ’ hAustraliaArea ’000 ha 5 193 5 363 5 687 6.0– barley ’000 ha 3 814 3 836 3 996 4.2 barley 000 ha 3 814 3 836 3 996 4.2– grain sorghum ’000 ha 532 651 701 7 7– grain sorghum ’000 ha 532 651 701 7.7P d ti kt 12 226 11 819 12 223 3 4Production kt 12 226 11 819 12 223 3.4– barley kt 9 174 8 014 8 182 2.1 barley kt 9 174 8 014 8 182 2.1– grain sorghum kt 1 282 2 104 2 214 5.2– grain sorghum kt 1 282 2 104 2 214 5.2Exports kt 8 146 7 772 7 178 7 6Exports kt 8 146 7 772 7 178 –7.6

l $– value A$m 2 569 2 696 2 322 –13.9Feed barley price c A$/t 233 252 248 –1.6Feed barley price c A$/t 233 252 248 1.6Malting barley price d A$/t 250 282 290 2 8Malting barley price d A$/t 250 282 290 2.8US 2 ll f b G lf J l J b F f d b l f b R J l J F d 1a US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf, July–June. b France feed barley, fob Rouen, July–June. c Feed 1,

delivered Geelong. d Gairdner malt 1, delivered Geelong. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.de e ed Gee o g d Ga d e a t , de e ed Gee o g S o ecast s S est ateSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United Nations Commodity Trade StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade); United States Department of AgricultureDatabase (UN Comtrade); United States Department of Agriculture


• The world oilseed indicator price is forecast to average lower in 2015–16 as a result of an expected build-up of world soybean stocks.

• World protein meal supply is expected to increase markedly in 2015–16, reflecting record soybean crush.

• World oilseed closing stocks are forecast to reach a record 106 million tonnes in 2015–16, principally reflecting higher soybean closing stocks.

World soybean price to fall to lowest since 2006–07The world oilseed indicator price (US no. 2 soybeans, fob Gulf) is forecast to fall by 11 per cent in 2015–16 to average US$370 a tonne. Soybean production in 2015–16 is forecast to decline only marginally from record production in 2014–15. High production and large soybean carry-over stocks from 2014–15 are expected to result in world soybean supply rising by 13 per cent to around 400 million tonnes. Soybean consumption is forecast to rise but remain below production. Closing stocks of soybeans are expected to rise to record levels, and the world soybean indicator price in 2015–16 is expected to average at its lowest level since 2006–07 in real terms.

However, a forecast tightening in world vegetable oil markets from an expected slowdown in palm oil production and reduced supply of other oilseeds is expected to support soybean prices.

The world canola indicator price (Europe rapeseed, fob Hamburg) is forecast to average US$425 a tonne in 2015–16, largely unchanged from 2014–15. World rapeseed prices are expected to average higher than soybean prices in 2015–16 as a result of relatively lower rapeseed (including canola) supply, increased imports by the European Union and an unfavourable start to 2016–17 rapeseed plantings. Some substitution away from rapeseed (including canola) to relatively less expensive soybeans is expected, which should partially reduce upward pressure on canola prices in 2015–16.

OilseedsDavid Mobsby

Oilseeds


World oilseed indicator price, US no. 2 soybeans, fob Gulf

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

Soybean closingstocks

2015–16US$/t

Oilseed indicator price(right axis)

20

40

60

80

100

120

100

200

300

400

500

600

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Near record production forecast in 2015–16Total oilseed production is forecast to fall by 1 per cent in 2015–16 (to 529 million tonnes) from the record high estimated for 2014–15. World soybean production is forecast to fall marginally in 2015–16, while world rapeseed (including canola) and world cottonseed production are forecast to decline by 6 per cent and 7 per cent respectively.

Record estimated soybean yields in the United States and a forecast large increase in soybean plantings in Latin America are expected to result in production reaching 317 million tonnes, around 1 per cent lower than the record estimated for 2014–15.

World oilseeds production

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

Other Sun�ower seed

Rapeseed (including canola)

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

100

200

300

400

500

600

Soybeans

Oilseeds


World rapeseed (including canola) production is forecast to be 6 per cent lower in 2015–16 at 67 million tonnes. Production declines are expected for most major producing countries. World sunflower seed production is forecast to rise marginally to around 40 million tonnes because of forecast increased production in the Russian Federation and Ukraine. This is expected to offset lower crop production in Argentina, the European Union and Turkey. Cottonseed production is forecast to decline, with lower world cotton prices causing a contraction in world cotton plantings.

Soybean production to remain high in key exporting countriesUS soybean production is forecast to be 1 per cent higher in 2015–16 at 108 million tonnes. Crop condition deteriorated early in the season, but more favourable growing conditions led to stabilisation. Crop condition at the end of October 2015 was rated by the US Department of Agriculture as 64 per cent (good to excellent), compared with the five-year average for the same period of 58 per cent. Average yield is estimated at a record 3.2 tonnes a hectare. Harvesting of the 2015–16 soybean crops began in September 2015 and accelerated in mid October 2015, with favourable seasonal conditions aiding fieldwork. By the end of October 2015, 91 per cent of the US soybean crop had been harvested compared with the five-year average to 2014 of 88 per cent.

Over recent months the Brazilian real has significantly devalued against the US dollar, which has raised domestic soybean prices in Brazil. The increase in domestic prices is expected to encourage producers to expand area planted to soybeans. Despite regional delays to planting, total area planted to soybeans in Brazil is forecast to rise by 3 per cent in 2015–16 to around 33 million hectares.

Soybean plantings in Brazil began during September 2015, but progress has been mixed because of variable seasonal conditions across major soybean growing regions. In the central west state of Mato Grosso, drier than average conditions in October significantly slowed plantings. In early November plantings were 60 per cent complete, making the rate the slowest since 2010–11.

Planting conditions have been more favourable in southern regions despite excessive rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul. Assuming average yields, production is expected to increase by 3 per cent to 99 million tonnes. An upside risk to this production forecast is that the current El Niño event could cause an increase in average soybean yield in Brazil. El Niño generally brings increased rainfall to southern soybean producing regions in Brazil.

Oilseeds


Soybean harvested area, Argentina and Brazil

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

Argentina Brazil

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

10

20

30

40

50

60

Area planted to soybeans in Argentina is expected to rise by 4 per cent in 2015–16 to around 20 million hectares. Planting has reportedly started early in anticipation of higher than average seasonal rainfall, which could affect planting progress. More favourable returns expected from soybean production compared with corn production are likely to result in a substantial reduction in area planted to corn in favour of soybeans. More soybeans will also be planted following the reduction in wheat plantings in 2015–16. Assuming a return to average yields from the higher-than-average yields estimated for 2014–15, production is forecast to fall by 8 per cent to around 56 million tonnes. An upside risk to this forecast is that soybean yield in Argentina is often above average during El Niño years.

World rapeseed (including canola) production lowest since 2012–13Most major rapeseed (including canola) producing countries either have completed harvest or are harvesting 2015–16 crops. Harvest is complete in Canada, the European Union and Ukraine, while harvest continues in many regions of Australia. Rapeseed planting began in India during October 2015.

Canadian canola production is forecast to fall by 6 per cent in 2015–16 to 15.4 million tonnes. Harvesting is complete in major producing provinces and yields are estimated to be above average despite dry seasonal conditions over the growing period. Area planted to canola declined by 5 per cent because producers reduced planting in favour of cereal crops.

Rapeseed production in the European Union is estimated to have fallen by 12 per cent in 2015–16 to 21.5 million tonnes. Warm and dry conditions during the European spring of 2015 reduced average yield by 9 per cent to 3.3 tonnes a hectare. Rapeseed production in Ukraine is estimated to be 1.9 million tonnes in 2015–16, 13 per cent below the previous year, as a result of reduced plantings more than offsetting higher yields.

Oilseeds


World rapeseed (including canola) production

Mt

f ABARES forecast.Note: Major exporters include Australia, Canada and Ukraine.

Other India

China

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

European UnionMajor exporters

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

In India planting of 4.3 million hectares of rapeseed was completed in mid November 2015, compared with 5.4 million hectares at the same time a year earlier. Warm and dry conditions during October in the major rapeseed producing state of Rajasthan reportedly slowed planting of rapeseed crops. Nevertheless, total rapeseed plantings in 2015–16 are forecast to rise 3 per cent from the below average plantings of 2014–15. Rapeseed production is forecast to rise by 5 per cent to 6.2 million tonnes assuming average yields.

World oilseed consumption underpinned by soybean crushWorld oilseed consumption (largely for oilseed crush) is forecast to grow by 1 per cent in 2015–16 to 519 million tonnes. World soybean crush is expected to rise to 268 million tonnes in 2015–16, with reduced supply of other major oilseeds and slowing world palm oil production resulting in higher demand for soybean meal and soybean oil. World rapeseed (including canola) crush is forecast to fall by 5 per cent to 65 million tonnes—the first year-on-year decline since 2006–07—which reflects the expected sharp contraction in world supply. Sunflower seed crush is forecast to rise, reflecting increased supply in the Black Sea region and strong world import demand.

Soybean meal production to increase protein meal supplyAmple world supply of protein meals is expected to result in protein meal prices averaging lower over 2015–16. World protein meal production is forecast to rise by 3 per cent in 2015–16 to 301 million tonnes. Forecast record soybean crush (particularly in Argentina and Brazil) is expected to result in soybean meal production expanding by 5 per cent to 211 million tonnes. World protein meal consumption is forecast to rise by 4 per cent to 300 million tonnes, driven by higher consumption in Brazil, China, the European Union and the United States. The European Union and several South-East Asian countries are expected to continue to drive world trade of protein meals.

Oilseeds


Protein meal closing stocks

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

Closing stocks

%

stocks-to-use (right axis)

3

6

9

12

15

18

1

2

3

4

5

6

2015–16f

2012–13

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

Slower palm oil output to tighten vegetable oil marketsWorld vegetable oil consumption is expected to exceed production in 2015–16, resulting in declines in closing stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio. An expected rise in import demand for vegetable oils and increased biodiesel production is forecast to support vegetable oil prices in 2015–16.

Vegetable oil closing stocks

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

Closing stocks

%

stocks-to-use (right axis)

2015–16f

2012–13

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

5

10

15

20

5

10

15

20

World vegetable oil production is forecast to rise by 2 per cent in 2015–16 to 178 million tonnes. World palm oil production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to 63 million tonnes in 2015–16. This forecast rise is lower than the average growth rate of 7 per cent from 2005–06 to 2013–14, mainly reflecting anticipated effects on 2015–16 production of dry conditions in Indonesia and Malaysia during 2015.

Oilseeds


World vegetable oil consumption is forecast to increase by around 4 per cent in 2015–16 to 179 million tonnes. World food consumption of vegetable oil is expected to rise by 4 per cent to 136 million tonnes. World industrial consumption is forecast to rise by around 4 per cent, reflecting anticipated higher biodiesel production in 2015–16. Rising biodiesel production in Indonesia is expected to reduce the amount of palm oil available for export.

World vegetable oil consumption

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

IndustrialFood

2015–16f

2012–13

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

30

60

90

120

150

180

Import demand from India is expected to rise in 2015–16, reflecting an expected second year of below average oilseed production. Total vegetable oil imports into India are expected to increase by 6 per cent to 15 million tonnes, despite the Indian Government raising tariffs on vegetable oil in September 2015 by 5 per cent—to 12.5 per cent for crude vegetable oil and to 20 per cent for refined vegetable oil.

Vegetable oil imports, India

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2015–16f

2012–13

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Oilseeds


World oilseed trade supported by record soybean supplyWorld oilseed exports are forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2015–16 at 147 million tonnes. World soybean exports are forecast to rise, but world exports of rapeseed (including canola) and other oilseeds are expected to decline because of lower world supplies in 2015–16. World import demand for oilseed, protein meals and vegetable oil is expected to be higher, reflecting reduced oilseed crop prospects in major importing countries.

World oilseed, vegetable oil and protein meal trade

Mt

Protein meal trade

World oilseeds tradeVegetable oil trade

30

60

90

120

150

f ABARES forecast.

2015–16f

2012–13

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

World soybean exports are forecast to rise by 2 per cent in 2015–16 to 129 million tonnes. Higher soybean exports from Brazil are expected to drive this forecast rise, reflecting anticipated high soybean production in Brazil and rising import demand from China. The devaluation of the Brazilian real has made Brazilian exports more competitive on the world market and resulted in a marked increase in exports over recent months.

Exports from Argentina are expected to rise by 4 per cent in 2015–16 to 11 million tonnes but could rise further depending on changes to government policies affecting grain and oilseed exports. Exports of soybean meal and soybean oil from Argentina are expected to be higher, reflecting forecast large soybean crush.

In contrast, soybean exports from the United States are expected to fall because of the strong US dollar and an expected increase in demand from domestic crushers.

Soybean imports into China are expected to rise by around 2 per cent in 2015–16 to 80 million tonnes, reflecting lower domestic production and higher crush demand. Chinese import growth is expected to moderate in 2015–16. A portion of the large import volume from 2014–15 (which increased by 11 per cent from 2013–14 to 78.4 million tonnes) is expected to go towards stock building and partially reduce import demand in 2015–16. Imports of rapeseed (including canola) are expected to decline following the Chinese Government’s decision to end domestic purchasing and storage of rapeseed.

Oilseeds


China soybean imports

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

Imports

%

Share of world trade(right axis)

2015–16f

2012–13

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

World rapeseed (including canola) trade is expected to contract by 11 per cent in 2015–16 to 13 million tonnes, reflecting lower world supply. Canadian exports are forecast to fall by 9 per cent to 8 million tonnes because of lower estimated production and strong demand from domestic crushers. Exports from Ukraine are forecast to fall by 1.6 million tonnes because of lower production. Australian canola exports (November to October marketing year) are forecast to fall by 13 per cent to 2.2 million tonnes because of expected lower production.

Estimated lower rapeseed production in the European Union in 2015–16 is expected to result in rapeseed (including canola) imports rising 25 per cent in 2015–16 to around 3 million tonnes. An increase in imports of soybean meal and palm oil is expected to partially offset demand for rapeseed (including canola).

World sunflower seed exports are forecast to fall in 2015–16 to 1.4 million tonnes. The European Union is the largest sunflower seed exporter, but estimated lower production in 2015–16 is expected to reduce exports to a multi-year low of around 400 000 tonnes. Production increases in 2015–16 are expected to occur mainly in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, which typically export sunflower seed oil and sunflower seed meal instead of unprocessed oilseed.

World oilseed stocks to close higher in 2015–16World oilseed stocks are expected to increase by 10 per cent in 2015–16 to 106 million tonnes, with record closing stocks of soybean expected to more than offset forecast declines in cottonseed, rapeseed (including canola) and sunflower seed. High forecast world soybean production is expected to result in world soybean closing stocks rising to 94 million tonnes, with combined closing stocks in major exporting countries rising 6 per cent to 58 million tonnes. Conversely, lower production of world cottonseed, rapeseed (including canola) and sunflower seed is forecast to result in a run-down in stocks to meet forecast consumption in 2015–16.

Oilseeds


World oilseed closing stocks

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

OtherRapeseed(including canola) Soybeans

%

Stocks-to-use(right axis)

20

40

60

80

100

120

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

5

10

15

20

25

30

Outlook for Australian canola, 2015–16Australian canola production to be lowerAustralian canola production is forecast to fall by 14 per cent in 2015–16 to around 3 million tonnes, largely because of a fall in planted area. Despite a warmer and drier than average finish to the season in most canola growing regions, average yield for Australia is expected to be largely unchanged from 2014–15 and only slightly below the five-year average to 2014–15.

Australian canola production

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

1

2

3

4

5

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Oilseeds


However, canola yields and quality are expected to vary significantly by state. Canola crops in New South Wales and South Australia had largely finished flowering before the hotter and drier than average conditions in September and October, and average yield in these states is expected to rise. In Western Australia, canola was planted earlier than normal and quality of canola crops was generally less affected by the hotter and drier than average finish to the season than quality of wheat and barley crops. As a result canola crop quality is generally good and oil content high. However, average canola yield is expected to decline by 1 per cent. In contrast, unfavourable seasonal conditions in Victoria during winter and the beginning of spring are expected to result in a large decline in average yield. Oil content for crops harvested to date in Victoria has been low.

Australian canola yields

t/ha

s ABARES estimate. f ABARES forecast.

2014–15s

2015–16f

Five-year averageto 2014–15

WesternAustralia

SouthAustralia

VictoriaNew SouthWales

Australia

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Area planted to canola declined by 14 per cent in 2015–16 because of higher expected returns from alternative crops such as barley and pulses and unfavourable soil moisture levels in some regions at planting time.

Australian canola exports to fallAustralian canola exports are forecast to fall by 14 per cent in 2015–16 to 2.1 million tonnes, reflecting the expected decline in production. Forecast increases in export prices are expected to partially offset the impact of these forecast falls in canola shipments and, as a result, value of canola exports is forecast to be 8 per cent lower at $1.2 billion. Export prices are expected to be supported by an assumed weaker Australian dollar and an expected increase in import demand from the European Union.

Australian canola exports to the European Union are forecast to rise by 27 per cent in 2015–16 to around 1.4 million tonnes, despite the expected decline in total Australian exports of canola. This forecast increase reflects an expected 25 per cent increase in rapeseed imports into the European Union in 2015–16 to around 3 million tonnes and a significant fall in rapeseed exports from Ukraine. Australia and Ukraine typically supply around 90 per cent of the rapeseed (including canola) imported into the European Union.

Oilseeds


Value of Australian canola exports

2015–16A$b

f ABARES forecast.

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Australian canola exports to China are expected to decline by around 50 per cent in 2015–16 to 250 000 tonnes because of a forecast fall in supply of canola available for export, an expected fall in import demand from China and relatively strong canola exports from Canada (China’s main supplier of canola). In the first quarter of 2015–16, Canada exported 1.1 million tonnes of canola to China and no exports were recorded from Australia.

Volume of Australian canola exports by destination

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

OtherChina European Union

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Oilseeds


Outlook for oilseeds

O tl k f il dOutlookforoilseedsi 20 3 20 20 6 f % h

Outlookforoilseedsunit 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f % change

WorldProduction Mt 505 536 529 –1 3WorldProduction Mt 505 536 529 –1.3C ti M 494 516 519 0 6Consumption Mt 494 516 519 0.6p– oilseed meal Mt 277 288 300 4.2 oilseed meal Mt 277 288 300 4.2– vegetable oil Mt 166 172 179 4 1– vegetable oil Mt 166 172 179 4.1Exports Mt 133 147 147 0 0Exports Mt 133 147 147 0.0Closing stocks Mt 78 96 106 10.4gStocks‐to‐use ratio % 16 19 20Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 16 19 20Soybeans indicator price a US$/t 547 418 370 –11 5Soybeans indicator price a US$/t 547 418 370 –11.5

l i di i US$/ 521 424 425 0 2Canola indicator price b US$/t 521 424 425 0.2pAustraliaTotal production kt 5 160 4 262 3 884 –8 9AustraliaTotal production kt 5 160 4 262 3 884 –8.9

inter kt 3 843 3 469 2 989 13 8– winter kt 3 843 3 469 2 989 –13.8– summer kt 1 317 793 895 12.9 summerCanolaProduction kt 3 832 3 464 2 985 13 8CanolaProduction kt 3 832 3 464 2 985 –13.8

kExports c kt 3 194 2 445 2 105 –13.9p– value A$m 1 929 1 349 1 245 –7.7 value A$m 1 929 1 349 1 245 7.7Price c(d li d M lb ) A$/t 529 482 540 12 0Price c (delivered Melbourne) A$/t 529 482 540 12.0a Soybeans, US, fob Gulf, July–June. b Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg, July–June. a Soybea s, US, ob Gu , Ju y Ju e b apeseed, u ope, ob a bu g, Ju y Ju ec July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.c July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Grains Council; United StatesSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Grains Council; United States D t t f A i ltDepartment of Agriculture


• The world sugar indicator price is forecast to fall by 3 per cent to average US13 cents a pound in 2015–16. World production is forecast to decline, but record world carry-over stocks from 2014–15 are expected to put downward pressure on prices.

• World sugar consumption is forecast to rise in 2015–16, largely reflecting increased demand from food processors in developing Asian countries.

• World sugar exports are forecast to increase in 2015–16, reflecting increased supplies in major exporting countries and strong import demand from the European Union and China.

• Australian sugar exports are forecast to increase by 7 per cent to around 3.5 million tonnes in 2015–16.

World sugar prices lower in 2015–16The world indicator price for raw sugar (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) is forecast to fall by 3 per cent in the 2015–16 season (October to September) to average US13 cents a pound. Record world carry-over stocks from the 2014–15 season are expected to put downward pressure on prices, despite world consumption being forecast to exceed production for the first time in six years. As at 2 December 2015 the cumulative average sugar price in 2015–16 was US14.5 cents a pound, compared with US16.2 cents a pound at the same date in 2014.

In 2014–15 the world indicator price for raw sugar averaged US13.4 cents a pound, around 20 per cent lower than in 2013–14.

SugarBenjamin K Agbenyegah

Sugar


World sugar indicators

Consumption

Mt2015–16USc/lb

Price (right axis)

ProductionClosing stocks

f ABARES forecast.

7

14

21

28

35

40

80

120

160

200

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

World sugar production to fall in 2015–16World sugar production is forecast to decline by 2 per cent in 2015–16 to 178 million tonnes, largely reflecting forecast lower production in Europe, China and India. Production in these markets is forecast to decline because growers responded to relatively low sugar prices by reducing plantings. Yields are expected to be negatively affected by unfavourable seasonal conditions. Production is forecast to increase in Brazil, Thailand, the United States and Australia, which is expected to partially offset these declines.

In the European Union, sugar production is forecast to decline by 23 per cent in 2015–16 to 14.6 million tonnes. This forecast decline reflects a combination of an estimated 15 per cent reduction in area planted to sugar beet and a 9 per cent fall in average beet yield. Relatively low sugar prices during the planting window resulted in growers reducing area, and average yield is expected to fall because of dry seasonal conditions in many EU countries. If realised, EU sugar production will be the lowest since 1969–70, when 14.5 million tonnes was produced.

Sugar production in Eastern Europe is forecast to be 8.2 million tonnes in 2015–16, down from 8.5 million tonnes in 2014–15. This forecast largely reflects an estimated 32 per cent fall in sugar production in Ukraine to 1.4 million tonnes because of reduced sugar beet planting and yields. Area planted to sugar beet is estimated to have declined by 28 per cent to 238 000 hectares, in response to relatively low sugar prices. Average beet yield is expected to fall by 6 per cent, reflecting dry seasonal conditions. In contrast, sugar production in the Russian Federation is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2015–16 to 5.3 million tonnes, largely reflecting an estimated 12 per cent increase in planted area to around 1 million hectares. Relatively high domestic sugar prices drove the expansion of sugar beet plantings.

Sugar


Sugar production, Europe

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

Other Europe

Ukraine

Russian FederationEuropean Union

5

10

15

20

25

30

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Sugar production in India is forecast to fall by 4 per cent in 2015–16 to around 30 million tonnes. This forecast reflects a 2 per cent fall in cane crush to 374 million tonnes and an expected increase in gur production (jaggery or crude, non-centrifugal lump sugar). Gur prices have trended up on the domestic market since late 2014 as a result of a shortage in cane supply for local jaggery manufacturers. In 2015–16 cane supply to jaggery manufacturers is expected to increase, resulting in gur production rising by 40 per cent to around 40 million tonnes.

Sugar and gur prices, Delhi market

SugarGur

25

Indianrupee/kg

30

35

40

45

50

Source: National Information Centre, India

Oct2015

Apr2015

Oct2014

Apr2014

Oct2013

Apr2013

Oct2012

Apr2012

Oct2011

Apr2011

Oct2010

Sugar


Sugar production in China is forecast to be 10.5 million tonnes in 2015–16, around 1 million tonnes lower than in 2014–15. Cane production is forecast to fall by 21 per cent to 86 million tonnes and beet production by 14 per cent to 8.2 million tonnes. These declines reflect a fall in planted area as Chinese farmers responded to more favourable returns from alternatives such as cassava, fruits, rice and vegetables, and dry seasonal conditions in some major sugar producing regions.

Sugarcane production in Brazil is forecast to increase by 5 per cent to 660 million tonnes in 2015–16. This forecast largely reflects an assumed increase in average cane yield because of improved seasonal conditions in Brazil’s centre south region, which produces around 90 per cent of Brazil’s sugar cane. Despite the expected rise in cane crush, sugar production is forecast to increase only slightly to 37.4 million tonnes in 2015–16. This reflects an increase in share of cane allocated to ethanol production.

In the first seven months of the 2015–16 season (April to March), millers in Brazil allocated 59 per cent of cane to ethanol production. This compares with around 57 per cent for 2014–15 as a whole. This increased allocation follows the Brazilian Government’s February 2015 decision to lift the mandatory blending ratio for anhydrous ethanol with gasoline from 25 per cent to 27 per cent. This has resulted in increased domestic demand. For 2015–16 as a whole, the share of cane used in ethanol production is expected to average 59 per cent.

Sugarcane allocation, Brazil

Sugar

Mt %

Ethanol share (right axis)Ethanol

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Sugar production in Thailand is forecast to be 12 million tonnes in 2015–16, up from 11.6 million tonnes in 2014–15. This forecast is based on an expected 2 per cent rise in cane production to a record 108 million tonnes, reflecting an estimated 2 per cent increase in planted area. Thai farmers have increased cane plantings this season in response to government incentives to switch from rice to sugarcane production. Incentives include direct payments to growers and the setting of domestic prices for sugar cane and wholesale and retail sugar well above world prices.

Sugar


US sugar production is forecast to reach 8 million tonnes in 2015–16, 2 per cent higher than in the previous year. This forecast reflects an estimated 1 per cent increase in area planted to sugar cane and beet to 825 000 hectares and an assumed increase in average yield because of favourable seasonal conditions.

Changes in world sugar production, by country

Mt

2014–152015–16f

f ABARES forecast.

–4–3–2–1012345

world

other

Eastern Europe

EuropeanUnion

China

India

United States

Thailand

Brazil

Australia

World sugar consumption to grow in 2015–16World sugar consumption is forecast to be around 184 million tonnes in 2015–16, 3 million tonnes higher than in 2014–15. This forecast largely reflects increased demand from food processing industries in developing Asian countries, particularly China, India and Indonesia.

World sugar consumption, by country

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

Other

United States

BrazilChina

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

50

100

150

200

European UnionIndia

Sugar


World sugar trade to increase in 2015–16World sugar exports are forecast to rise by 5 per cent to around 67 million tonnes in 2015–16. This increase is expected to be driven by larger sugar supplies in major exporting countries and strong import demand from China and the European Union.

Sugar exports from Brazil are forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2015–16 to 25 million tonnes. This forecast is based on an expected increase in supply of sugar available for export as a result of large carry-over stocks from 2014–15 and higher domestic production.

Thai sugar exports are forecast to reach a record 9.3 million tonnes in 2015–16, compared with 7.8 million tonnes in 2014–15. This forecast reflects a combination of relatively large carry-over stocks from 2014–15, increased domestic production and strong import demand from neighbouring Asian countries (particularly China, Indonesia and Malaysia), where sugar production is expected to fall.

Sugar exports from India are forecast to increase by 12 per cent in 2015–16 to 2.8 million tonnes, reflecting large carry-over stocks. This forecast assumes the Indian Government will continue to subsidise sugar exports to encourage mills to dispose of the significant volume of sugar held in stocks. Between June and September 2015 the government applied a subsidy of 3 300 rupee a tonne (around US$64.30 a tonne) to all sugar exports.

EU sugar exports are forecast to remain largely unchanged at around 1.4 million tonnes in 2015–16. Despite a significant fall expected in domestic production, the European Union is obliged to satisfy the sugar export quota requirement under its World Trade Organization agreement. EU sugar imports are forecast to increase by 24 per cent to 3.7 million tonnes in 2015–16, reflecting the forecast decline in domestic production.

US sugar imports are forecast to fall by 4 per cent in 2015–16 to around 3.1 million tonnes, reflecting large domestic stocks and a forecast increase in US production. The United States is expected to meet its World Trade Organization obligation to import a minimum 1.1 million tonnes of tariff-free sugar, with the remainder to come from other sources, including its North American Free Trade Agreement partners.

Sugar exports from Mexico are forecast to be around 1.3 million tonnes in 2015–16, 8 per cent lower than in 2014–15. This forecast is mainly driven by expected lower exports to the United States resulting from US restrictions imposed on imports from Mexico under the countervailing duty suspension agreement (made in December 2014). The agreement allows the United States to prevent an oversupply of sugar in the US market by setting import limits on Mexican sugar.

Sugar imports into China are forecast to increase by 15 per cent in 2015–16 to 5.5 million tonnes, reflecting a forecast decline in domestic production and an expected increase in consumption because of continued growth in food manufacturing.

Indonesian sugar imports are forecast to reach 4 million tonnes in 2015–16, 7 per cent higher than in 2014–15. This reflects an expected 4 per cent rise in sugar consumption to 6.8 million tonnes and a 3 per cent decline in domestic production to 2.6 million tonnes.

Sugar


Changes in world sugar exports, by country

Mt

2014–152015–16f

worldother

f ABARES forecast.

–1

0

1

2

3

4

Mexico India Australia Thailand Brazil

World sugar stocks to remain high in 2015–16World closing stocks of sugar are forecast to fall by 7 per cent in 2015–16 to around 72 million tonnes, as world consumption exceeds production for the first time in six years. Despite this forecast decline, world sugar stocks are expected to be the fourth-largest on record. The world stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to fall to 39 per cent by the end of 2015–16, compared with 43 per cent in 2014–15.

World sugar stocks-to-use ratio

%

f ABARES forecast.

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Sugar


Australian sugar production to increase in 2015–16Australian sugar production is forecast to be 4.8 million tonnes in 2015–16, 5 per cent higher than in 2014–15. An estimated 3 per cent increase in harvested area to 393 000 hectares is forecast to result in cane production reaching 33 million tonnes. Average cane yield is assumed to fall slightly because of dry seasonal conditions and the spread of canopy syndrome in some cane growing regions.

Area of sugar cane harvested and average cane yield, Australia

Area harvested

’000ha t/ha

Cane yield (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

100

200

300

400

500

20

40

60

80

100

Queensland Sugar Limited (QSL) is the main marketer of Australia’s raw sugar exports. QSL forecasts its gross harvest pool return to fall by 7 per cent in 2015–16 to $376 a tonne International Polarity Scale. However, it has noted that the final harvest pool return will depend on future movements in world sugar prices and the Australian exchange rate.

The average mill-gate return to Australian cane growers is forecast to be largely unchanged at $36 a tonne in 2015–16, as the effect of an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar offsets forecast lower world sugar prices.

Australian sugar exports are forecast to rise by 7 per cent in 2015–16 to around 3.5 million tonnes as a result of expected higher production. The value of Australian sugar exports is forecast to be around $1.4 million, 8 per cent higher than in 2014–15.

Sugar


Sugar production, exports and returns to cane growers, Australia

Production

kt2015–16$/t

Return to cane growers (right axis)

Exports

f ABARES forecast.

1

2

3

4

5

6

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Outlook for sugar a

unit 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f % change

Production Mt 182.1 182.4 178.0 –2.4– Brazil Mt 40.1 37.0 37.4 1.1Consumption Mt 179.0 181.0 183.8 1.5Exports Mt 64.3 64.0 67.0 4.7Closing stocks Mt 76.4 77.9 72.1 –7.4Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 42.7 43.0 39.3Price USc/lb 16.8 13.4 13.0 –3.0

Area ’000 ha 375 381 393 3.2Production kt 4 364 4 572 4 800 5.0Exports kt 3 052 3 253 3 481 7.0– value A$m 1 384 1 336 1 444 8.1

OutlookforsugaraWorld b

Australia c

a Volumes are raw value equivalent. b October–September years. c July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organization


CottonBenjamin K Agbenyegah

• The world indicator price for cotton is forecast to remain largely unchanged at an average of US71 cents a pound in 2015–16. Despite a forecast decline in world production, record world carry-over stocks are expected to constrain upward pressure on prices.

• World consumption of raw cotton is forecast to increase to around 25 million tonnes in 2015–16. World consumption is expected to exceed world production for the first time in four years.

• Australian cotton production is forecast to rise to 560 000 tonnes in 2015–16, mainly reflecting an estimated 52 per cent increase in planted area.

World cotton prices to remain unchanged in 2015–16The world indicator price for cotton (Cotlook ‘A’ index) is forecast to remain largely unchanged at an average of US71 cents a pound in 2015–16 (August to July). Despite a forecast decline in world production and increased consumption, record world carry-over stocks are expected to constrain upward pressure on world prices.

World cotton stocks have increased significantly since 2010–11 and reached a record 24.3 million tonnes in 2014–15, equivalent to almost 12 months of world mill use. This growth largely reflected China’s stockpiling policy, which was in place for the three years to 2013–14. This policy consisted of state procurement of domestic cotton at prices well above the world market and the importation of significant volumes of raw cotton. In 2014–15 China replaced this policy with direct payments to domestic growers and significantly reduced imports. Despite this, China is still estimated to hold around 60 per cent of world stocks. The Chinese Government could affect world prices if these stocks were released onto the world market.

Cotton


World cotton supply (annual)

Opening stocks

Mt2015–16USc/lb

Indicator price(right axis)

Production

f ABARES forecast.

10

20

30

40

50

60

30

60

90

120

150

180

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

World cotton consumption to rise in 2015–16World consumption of raw cotton is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2015–16 to around 25 million tonnes, largely reflecting increased demand from textile and garment manufacturers, particularly in India, Pakistan, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Consumption in China is also forecast to increase, by 2 per cent in 2015–16 to 7.3 million tonnes. If realised, this will be the first time in six years that China has recorded annual growth in cotton consumption.

However, under the assumption that world oil prices remain relatively low, growth in world cotton consumption is expected to be constrained by strong competition from synthetic fibres. In late November 2015 the price of polyester was around US48 cents a pound, compared with around US69 cents a pound for raw cotton.

World weekly apparel fibre prices

USc/lb

Cotlook ‘A’ index

Polyester staple, China(cotton equivalent)

60

70

80

90

100

Jul2014

Nov2015

Aug2015

Mar2015

Nov2014

Cotton


In recent years world cotton consumption has been driven by the expansion of spinning, textile and garment manufacturing in India, Pakistan, Vietnam and Bangladesh. In 2014–15 these countries accounted for 97 per cent of world raw cotton consumption growth. This expansion of production largely reflects relatively low labour costs in these countries, which have encouraged increased investment. In contrast, rising labour costs in China have increased the cost of spinning locally produced cotton yarn. This has resulted in lower Chinese consumption of raw cotton and encouraged growth in yarn imports for use in domestic garment manufacturing.

In 2014–15 China imported a record 2.3 million tonnes of cotton yarn (minimum 85 per cent cotton, by weight), up from 2.1 million tonnes in 2013–14 and 1.9 million tonnes in 2012–13. Almost 80 per cent of China’s cotton yarn imports were sourced from India, Pakistan and Vietnam over these three years.

Sources of cotton yarn imports, China

Mt

Other Vietnam

PakistanIndia

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2014–152013–142012–132011–12

World cotton production to fall in 2015–16World cotton production is forecast to fall by 9 per cent in 2015–16 to around 24 million tonnes. This forecast is based on an estimated 8 per cent decline in area, reflecting relatively low world cotton prices at time of planting in major producing countries. As a result, production in the northern hemisphere—where harvesting of the 2015–16 crop is almost complete—is forecast to fall in all major producing countries. Southern hemisphere production is forecast to rise in Australia but decline in Brazil.

Cotton production in India is forecast to decline by 2 per cent in 2015–16 to 6.3 million tonnes. This forecast is based on an estimated 8 per cent decline in planted area being partially offset by an assumed 6 per cent rise in average lint yield. The expected increase in average yield reflects the timely arrival of rainfall in major cotton producing regions during the monsoon. Despite the forecast decline in production, India is expected to overtake China to become the world’s largest cotton producer in 2015–16.

Cotton


Cotton production in China is forecast to fall by 16 per cent in 2015–16 to 5.5 million tonnes, largely reflecting an estimated 19 per cent decline in planted area. Area planted to cotton in 2015–16 is estimated at 3.6 million hectares, around two-thirds of the average for the 10 years to 2014–15 of 5.4 million hectares. The significant reduction in cotton plantings by Chinese farmers follows recent changes to government support policies for cotton and relatively low domestic prices, which reduced grower returns and encouraged production of alternative crops.

In 2014–15 China replaced its stockpile policy with direct income support. Cotton producers in the Xinjiang region (China’s largest cotton producing region) received a subsidy equivalent to the difference between the market price and a set target price of 19 800 yuan a tonne. For 2015–16 the government has reduced the target price to 19 100 yuan a tonne, which is estimated to have resulted in a 10 per cent decline in planted area to 2.4 million hectares. For major producers outside the Xinjiang region, a fixed subsidy of 2 000 yuan a tonne has been maintained for the 2015–16 season, resulting in an estimated 32 per cent fall in area planted to cotton.

In the United States, cotton production is forecast to fall by 18 per cent to 2.9 million tonnes in 2015–16, based on an estimated 18 per cent decline in planted area. The fall in area reflected relatively low returns to cotton production at the time of planting, which encouraged growers to sow alternative crops such as maize and wheat. Improved seasonal conditions are expected to result in a slight increase in average lint yield and reduce the abandonment rate to 9 per cent in 2015–16, compared with 15 per cent in the previous season.

Cotton area and lint yield, United States

Area planted

Area harvested

Mha t/ha

Lint yield (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.Note: Lint yield is based on area planted.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

Cotton production in Pakistan is forecast to fall by 10 per cent in 2015–16 to 2.1 million tonnes. Relatively low domestic cotton prices at time of planting led to the area planted falling by an estimated 3 per cent. Unfavourable seasonal conditions are expected to result in a 7 per cent fall in average lint yield.

Cotton


Cotton production in Brazil is forecast to fall by 7 per cent to 1.4 million tonnes in 2015–16. Area planted to cotton is expected to decline by 9 per cent to 928 000 hectares in response to lower domestic cotton prices. Partially offsetting this is an assumed 2 per cent increase in average lint yield, reflecting improved seasonal conditions.

Changes in raw cotton production, by country

2015–16f2014–15

MtIndia

Australia

–2.0

–1.5

–1.0

–0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

f ABARES forecast.

world

other

Turkey

Uzbekistan

Brazil

Pakistan

UnitedStates

China

World cotton trade to decline in 2015–16World cotton exports are forecast to fall by 3 per cent in 2015–16 to 7.5 million tonnes. This reflects a reduction in supply of cotton available for export because of forecast production falls in major exporting countries. Lower shipments of cotton from the United States, Australia and Uzbekistan are expected to more than offset increases from India and Brazil.

US cotton exports are forecast to fall by 10 per cent in 2015–16 to 2.2 million tonnes, mainly reflecting forecast reduction in US domestic production.

Cotton exports from India are forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2015–16 to around 1 million tonnes. Indian cotton production is forecast to decline, but record carry-over stocks are expected to support increased exports to neighbouring Asian countries, particularly Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Raw cotton imports into China are forecast to be around 1.3 million tonnes in 2015–16, 31 per cent lower than in 2014–15. This forecast largely reflects the Chinese Government limiting its 2016 cotton import quota to 894 000 tonnes (the minimum specified under its World Trade Organization obligations) and the ongoing shift from imports of raw cotton to cotton yarn. Despite this significant reduction in imports, China is expected to remain the largest buyer of raw cotton on the world market in 2015–16.

Imports of raw cotton into Vietnam are forecast to rise by 10 per cent in 2015–16 to a record of around 1.1 million tonnes. This forecast increase is mainly driven by strong demand for raw cotton from the expanding apparel, textiles and yarn-spinning industries.

Cotton


World cotton stocks to remain high in 2015–16World closing stocks of raw cotton are forecast to be around 23 million tonnes in 2015–16, 4 per cent lower than the record of 2014–15. This decline reflects forecast world cotton consumption exceeding world production for the first time in four years. Despite this decline, world stocks are expected to remain high in historical terms. The world stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to be 93 per cent in 2015–16, 7 percentage points lower than in 2014–15.

World cotton stocks-to-use ratio

%

20

40

60

80

100

120

f ABARES forecast.

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

Australian cotton production to recover in 2015–16Australian cotton production declined by 43 per cent in 2014–15 to 505 000 tonnes, with dry seasonal conditions and relatively low soil moisture restricting planting and production. Area planted to cotton fell by 50 per cent in 2014–15 to 197 000 hectares. However, average lint yield increased by 14 per cent to a record 2.56 tonnes a hectare.

In 2015–16 Australian cotton production is forecast to be 560 000 tonnes, largely reflecting an estimated 52 per cent rise in planted area to 300 000 hectares. This significant increase in area planted was mainly driven by above average rainfall in November 2015, which supported an estimated 100 000 hectares of dryland cotton plantings in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. Irrigated cotton plantings are estimated to have increased by 2 per cent to 200 000 hectares, mainly reflecting improved water storage levels in dams serving Australia’s cotton growing regions. Partially offsetting the estimated rise in planted area is an assumed 27 per cent fall in average lint yield from the record achieved in 2014–15. This is because of the large increase in dryland cotton plantings, which generally yield around 70 per cent less lint than irrigated crops.

As at 24 November 2015, average storage level of public irrigation dams serving Australia’s cotton growing regions was 34 per cent of capacity, 5 per cent above the level recorded at the same time in 2014.

Cotton


Storage levels of main irrigation dams, at 24 November

2014

%

2015

othe

r Que

ensl

and

Bear

dmor

e (S

t Geo

rge)

Fairb

airn

(Em

eral

d)

Lesl

ie (D

arlin

g D

owns

)

othe

r New

Sou

th W

ales

Burr

endo

ng (M

acqu

arie

)

Pind

ari (

Mac

inty

re)

Keep

it (N

amoi

)

Gle

nlyo

n (M

acin

tyre

)

Cope

ton

(Gw

ydir)

10

20

30

40

50

60

Returns to Australian cotton growers to recover in 2015–16The return to Australian cotton growers at the gin-gate is forecast to average $520 a bale (227 kilograms) of lint (including the value of cottonseed and net of ginning costs), 4 per cent higher than in 2014–15. This forecast increase largely reflects the effect of an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar.

Australian cotton exports lower in 2015–16Australian raw cotton exports are forecast to fall by 26 per cent in 2015–16 to 506 000 tonnes. The March to June harvest period means that Australian cotton produced in one financial year is exported across two financial years. The forecast lower cotton exports in 2015–16 reflect relatively low cotton production in both 2014–15 and 2015–16.

Cotton production, exports and gin-gate returns, Australia

Production

kt2015–16$/bale

Gin-gate return a (right axis)

Exports

a Value of lint and cottonseed, less ginning costs. f ABARES forecast.

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

Cotton


Outlook for cotton

O tl k f ttOutlookforcottonit 2013 14 2014 15 2015 16 f % changeunit 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f % change

World aProduction Mt 26 2 25 9 23 6 –8 9World aProduction Mt 26.2 25.9 23.6 –8.9C ti Mt 23 7 24 4 24 9 2 0Consumption Mt 23.7 24.4 24.9 2.0Exports Mt 8.9 7.7 7.5 –2.6pClosing stocks Mt 22.4 24.3 23.3 –4.1Closing stocks Mt 22.4 24.3 23.3 –4.1Stocks to use ratio % 94 4 99 8 93 4Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 94.4 99.8 93.4C l k ‘A’ i d US /lb 90 6 70 8 71 0 0 3Cotlook ‘A’ index USc/lb 90.6 70.8 71.0 0.3Australia bArea harvested ’000 ha 392 197 300 52 3Australia bArea harvested 000 ha 392 197 300 52.3Lint prod ction kt 885 505 560 10 9Lint production kt 885 505 560 10.9Exports kt 1 036 681 506 –25.7Exports– value A$m 2 355 1 546 1 228 –20.6– value A$m 2 355 1 546 1 228 –20.6a August July years b July June years f ABARES forecast s ABARES estimatea August–July years. b July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.S ABARES A li B f S i i U i d S D f A i lSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture

Cotton


Agriculture

Livestock


LIVESTOCK

9%

The average cattle saleyardprice is forecast to rise, re�ecting a forecast fall inslaughter and expected restocker demand as producers rebuild herds.

Lamb prices are forecast to increase,re�ecting an expected fall in slaughter

as producers rebuild �ocks.

The Australian farmgate priceof milk is forecast to decline,

re�ecting reduced demand frommajor importing countries.

The Australian Eastern Market Indicatoris forecast to increase, re�ecting a forecast fall in wool production and an assumeddepreciation of the Australian dollar.

39%to 505 Ac/kg

in 2015–16a

10% to 1 210 Ac/kgin 2015–16

c

Australian weighted average saleyard price of beef cattle.a

Australian weighted average saleyard price of lamb.b

Beef and veal

Wool

Sheep meat

Dairy

to 565 Ac/kgin 2015–16

b

Eastern Market Indicator price, clean equivalent.c

Farmgate milk price.d

2%to 48 Ac/Lin 2015–16

d


Beef and vealJack Mullumby

• The Australian weighted average saleyard price of beef cattle is forecast to average 505 cents a kilogram (carcase weight) in 2015–16, a 39 per cent increase year-on-year.

• Australian cattle slaughter and beef production are forecast to decline because of herd rebuilding but to remain relatively high.

• Exports of beef and veal are forecast to fall in 2015–16 but to be the second-highest on record after 2014–15.

• The number of live cattle exported to Vietnam is forecast to increase in 2015–16, offsetting a forecast decline in the number shipped to Indonesia.

Cattle prices forecast higher in 2015–16 as turn-off decreasesThe Australian weighted average saleyard price of beef cattle is forecast to average 505 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in 2015–16, a 39 per cent increase year-on-year. In September 2015 the weighted average saleyard price rose to 534 cents a kilogram, the highest monthly average in real terms for 35 years. Despite the emergence of El Niño in autumn, seasonal conditions in 2015 have generally improved in most beef producing regions compared with the previous year. Significant summer and winter rainfall in many key beef producing regions resulted in a decline in turn-off and an increase in restocker demand as producers looked to expand herds. This has placed significant upward pressure on saleyard prices since March.

However, El Niño has brought significant volatility in seasonal conditions, resulting in large changes in saleyard cattle prices in the second half of 2015. Good winter rainfall resulted in saleyard prices increasing, on average, by 14 per cent between July and September. During September El Niño became the dominant climate influence across much of Australia, bringing hot and dry conditions and considerable uncertainty for pasture conditions in the remainder of 2015–16. Producers responded by increasing turn-off in October, driving down saleyard prices sharply. Widespread rainfall across the nation in early November has since driven a recovery in prices. Saleyard prices in mid November increased, on average, by 14 per cent on lows in mid October, leaving them just below their September peaks.

Beef and veal


The influence of El Niño is expected to ease in early 2016 and average seasonal conditions are assumed for most beef producing regions in the second half of 2015–16. This is expected to provide support for cattle prices for the rest of the year as producers look to rebuild herds after successive years of high turn-off.

National weekly saleyard prices of cattle

Ac/kg

Trade steer

Japanese oxUS cow

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Nov2015

Oct2015

Sept2015

Aug2015

Jul2015

Jun2015

May2015

Apr2015

Mar2015

Feb2015

Jan2015

Cattle slaughter to declineAustralian cattle and calf slaughter is forecast to fall by 11 per cent in 2015–16 to 9 million head after reaching a 36-year high of 10.1 million head in 2014–15. Australian cattle and calf slaughter in the three months to September 2015 was 5 per cent lower than in the September quarter 2014, with turn-off lower following rain events over winter. The proportion of cows and heifers slaughtered during this period also declined by 3 per cent, with producers retaining more females for herd expansion. Nevertheless, total number of animals slaughtered was high at 2.6 million head for the September quarter. This was 11 per cent above the average for the same period in the past five years.

Cow and heifer slaughter is likely to continue to decline in the second half of 2015–16, under the assumption of average seasonal conditions. However, high saleyard prices are expected to continue to provide producers with incentive to offload cattle. Reflecting this, the forecast decline in slaughter is not expected to be sufficient to result in an increase in the total beef cattle herd. The Australian beef cattle herd is forecast to decline by 1 per cent in 2015–16 to 23.9 million head. This would be the third consecutive annual decline.

Beef and veal production is forecast to fall in 2015–16 by 9 per cent to 2.4 million tonnes, following the record 2.7 million tonnes produced in 2014–15. Lower female cattle slaughter rates and an increase in the number of animals on feed are expected to increase average slaughter weights, offsetting some of the effect on beef production of the decline in number of animals slaughtered.

Beef and veal


Cattle and calf slaughter and weighted average saleyard price, Australia

Slaughter

millionhead

2015–16Ac/kg

Price (right axis)

2

4

6

8

10

12

100

200

300

400

500

600

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

f ABARES forecast.

Export volumes to fallAustralian beef and veal exports are forecast to fall by 12 per cent in 2015–16 to 1.2 million tonnes (shipped weight), primarily reflecting the forecast decline in beef production. At this level, exports would be the second-highest on record—behind the 1.3 million tonnes shipped in 2014–15.

Demand for Australian beef is expected to remain strong over the rest of 2015–16. The combination of this with reduced supplies available for export is forecast to increase export unit values. Reflecting this, the value of Australian beef exports is forecast to fall by only 3 per cent in 2015–16 to $8.6 billion.

Lower exports to the United StatesAustralian beef and veal exports to the United States are forecast to total 325 000 tonnes (shipped weight) in 2015–16, a 31 per cent decrease from 2014–15. At this level, the forecast volume of beef exported to the United States in 2015–16 would be 55 per cent above the average of the five years to 2014–15. Export volumes in the first quarter of 2015–16 were down 17 per cent compared with the same period in 2014–15, with US demand for beef imports dampened by an increase in domestic supply.

In the United States, the combination of higher average slaughter weights, increased cold storage stocks and a sharp decline in net exports has resulted in a 4 per cent increase in supply of beef for the first quarter of 2015–16 on the same period in 2014–15. US slaughter weights are expected to remain high for the rest of 2015–16, as relatively high cattle prices, low feed costs and abundant feedlot capacity will continue to provide feedlot managers with a strong incentive to finish cattle to higher weights.

Beef and veal


Despite the increase in total US beef supply, cow slaughter remains low. Monthly US cow slaughter declined year-on-year for 27 consecutive months to September 2015. US cow slaughter is expected to remain low in the second half of 2015–16 as herd rebuilding continues. As a result, domestic supply of manufacturing beef in the United States is expected to be constrained over this period. Demand for Australian manufacturing beef exports is therefore expected to remain strong, providing support for Australian export returns.

The US dollar is assumed to remain strong over the remainder of 2015–16, restricting the competitiveness of US beef exports and making imports comparatively cheaper. Nevertheless, the forecast reduction in Australian beef supplies as a result of herd rebuilding is expected to constrain exports of Australian beef to the United States over the remainder of 2015–16.

Monthly cow slaughter and cattle slaughter weights, United States

Cow slaughter per centchange, year-on-yearchange

%

Cattle slaughter weights(right axis)

kg

–10

0

10

20

580

600

620

640

Sep2015

May2015

Jan2015

Sep2014

May2014

Jan2014

Sep2013

May2013

Jan2013

High beef prices encourage Japanese consumers to switch to porkIn 2014–15 Japan imported approximately 525 000 tonnes of beef, of which 34 per cent was sourced from the United States and 57 per cent from Australia. In the three months to September 2015 total Japanese beef imports declined by 19 per cent compared with the same period last year. Imports sourced from the United States fell by 18 per cent over this period, while imports from Australia fell by 15 per cent.

Retail prices of imported beef in Japan have increased significantly. The average price of imported beef in the three months to September 2015 increased 13 per cent year-on-year. Faced with higher beef prices, Japanese consumers have been reducing their beef purchases primarily in favour of pork. Household per person consumption of beef fell by 10 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter 2015, while per person consumption of pork increased by 7 per cent.

Beef and veal


High cattle prices in the United States and Australia are forecast to continue to place upward pressure on imported beef prices in Japan for the rest of 2015–16. As a result, total demand for imported beef in Japan is expected to remain weak. Australian exports of beef to Japan are forecast to decline by 10 per cent year-on-year to 275 000 tonnes. However, Australian beef exports are expected to gain a greater share of the Japanese market in 2015–16. The relative strength of the US dollar combined with lower beef tariffs delivered through the Japan–Australia Economic Partnership Agreement are expected to make Australian exports comparatively cheaper compared with those from the United States.

Beef imports and Tokyo imported beef retail price, Japan

Beef Imports

yen/kg

Imported beefprice (Right axis)

kt

2 300

2 400

2 500

2 600

2 700

2 800

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep2015

Aug2015

Jul2015

Jun2015

May2015

Apr2015

Mar2015

Feb2015

Jan2015

Dec2014

Nov2014

Oct2014

Korean beef demand remains strongBeef prices in the Republic of Korea have also risen significantly over the past 12 months. During the September quarter 2015 the average wholesale price of beef in the Republic of Korea increased by 22 per cent on the same period in 2014. The rise in Korean beef prices has been driven by higher prices of imports from the United States and Australia, which collectively account for more than 90 per cent of total imports.

In contrast with Japan, Korean beef imports and consumption have not declined with higher import prices. Total imports during the September quarter 2015 were up 7 per cent year-on-year to 84 000 tonnes—with imports from Australia totalling 46 000 tonnes, a 10 per cent increase year-on-year.

Despite higher beef prices, consumers have increased consumption of beef. This is in part because pork prices have also risen strongly. Pork prices are expected to be relatively high for the remainder of 2015–16 and, as a consequence, demand for beef is expected to remain strong.

Domestic beef production is expected to be constrained in 2015–16 as the Korean cattle industry undergoes significant consolidation. Over the past three years small farms have exited the Korean beef industry, reducing the total domestic cattle inventory. This is providing support for Australian beef and veal exports, which are forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2015–16 to 170 000 tonnes.

Beef and veal


Imports by source and wholesale price of beef, Republic of Korea

Other

kt’000won/kg

Wholesale price of beef(right axis)

United StatesAustralia

10

20

30

40

5

10

15

20

Sep2015

Aug2015

Jul2015

Jun2015

May2015

Apr2015

Mar2015

Feb2015

Jan2015

Dec2014

Nov2014

Oct2014

Exports to China facing increased competitionAustralian beef and veal exports to China are forecast to increase by 12 per cent to 140 000 tonnes in 2015–16. Domestic supply in China remains constrained by low slaughter, and total Chinese beef imports are expected to increase in 2015–16.

Growth in Australian exports to China will be constrained by competition from other exporting countries, particularly those in South America. In 2014–15 Uruguay and Argentina emerged as significant exporters of beef to China. Imports from Uruguay increased year-on-year by 127 per cent to 183 000 tonnes, while imports from Argentina rose to 59 000 tonnes—an increase of 361 per cent. In May 2015 China lifted its bovine spongiform encephalopathy–related import restrictions on Brazilian beef, and exports resumed in June. For the first three months of 2015–16 Brazil exported just over 40 300 tonnes of beef to China, compared with Australia’s total of 38 300 tonnes.

Monthly beef exports to China, from Australia and Brazil

Australia

kt

Brazil

Sep2015

Aug2015

Jul2015

Jun2015

May2015

Apr2015

Mar2015

Feb2015

Jan2015

Dec2014

Nov2014

Oct2014

5

10

15

20

Beef and veal


Demand for live exports strongThe number of live feeder and slaughter cattle exported from Australia is forecast to decline by 15 per cent to 1.1 million head in 2015–16, reflecting the reduction in Indonesian permits allocated in the September quarter and constraints on Australian cattle supplies expected in the second half of the year. In the September quarter 2015 feeder and slaughter cattle export numbers were down 16 per cent year-on-year.

In July 2015 the Indonesian Government announced it would issue permits for only 50 000 head of Australian feeder cattle for the September quarter, around 130 000 head below the number exported to Indonesia in the September quarter 2014. Live cattle exports to Indonesia in the September quarter fell by 69 per cent year-on-year, reaching the lowest number exported in a quarter since 1999–2000. The reduction in cattle supply resulted in a significant rise in the price of beef in Indonesia. In response, the Indonesian Government issued additional permits for 50 000 head of Australian slaughter-ready cattle in August 2015 and, in September, released permits to import 200 000 head of feeder cattle from Australia for the December quarter.

Indonesian demand for Australian feeder and slaughter cattle is expected to remain strong in the second half of 2015–16. Domestic beef production in Indonesia is currently insufficient to meet domestic demand. As a result, Indonesia is expected to remain reliant on imports from Australia.

In the September quarter 2015, the number of live cattle exported to Vietnam increased 80 per cent year-on-year to 106 000 head. Australian exporters needed to divert cattle originally destined for Indonesia, so the unit value of exports to Vietnam was 22 per cent lower year-on-year for the quarter. Demand for live cattle in Vietnam is expected to remain strong in the second half of 2015–16. The combination of this with increased demand from Indonesia and an expected reduction in supply of cattle for live export is likely to result in higher live export cattle prices in 2015–16.

Australia has also commenced exporting live cattle to China. The first consignment was sent on 21 October. It consisted of 150 head of Bos taurus cattle sent by air to Chongqing in south-west China. This initial load was designed to test the supply chain system, after a health protocol was signed in August. Additional plane loads are expected by the end of 2015, and the first boatload is expected to depart in early 2016. Growth in the live export trade to China is expected to be slow initially, with the number of Chinese importers ready to take live cattle a major growth constraint.

Future live export trade with China is not expected to compete directly with existing export markets in Indonesia and Vietnam. Chinese biosecurity protocols and logistics issues will restrict the primary ports of loading to southern Australia, rather than the main live export ports in Darwin and Townsville. As a result, principal cattle breeds expected to be sent to China are Bos taurus, not the Bos indicus breeds sent to Indonesia and Vietnam.

Beef and veal


Quarterly live cattle exports and average export unit values, Vietnam and Indonesia

Vietnam

A$/head

Export unit value(Right axis)

’000head

Indonesia

100

200

300

400

300

600

900

1 200

Sep2015

Jun2015

Mar2015

Dec2014

Sep2014

Jun2014

Mar2014

Dec2013

Sep2013

Jun2013

Mar2013

Dec2012

Outlook for beef and veal

O tl k f b f d lOutlookforbeefandvealit 2013 14 2014 15 2015 16 f % changeunit 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f % change

Cattle numbers a million 29.1 27.0 26.7 –1.1Cattle numbers a million 29.1 27.0 26.7 1.1– beef million 26 3 24 2 23 9 –1 2– beef million 26.3 24.2 23.9 –1.2Slaughterings ’000 9 473 10 103 9 000 10 9Slaughterings ’000 9 473 10 103 9 000 –10.9Production b kt 2 464 2 662 2 425 –8.9Production bExports (shipped weight)to Japan kt 280 304 275 –9 5

Exports (shipped weight)– to Japan kt 280 304 275 –9.5

i d k 266 471 325 31 0– to United States kt 266 471 325 –31.0– to China kt 160 125 140 12.0 to China kt 160 125 140 12.0– to Korea Rep of kt 156 157 170 8 3– to Korea, Rep. of kt 156 157 170 8.3t t l kt 1 184 1 349 1 190 11 8– total kt 1 184 1 349 1 190 –11.8

– value A$m 6 265 8 858 8 600 –2.9 value $Live feeder/slaughter cattle exports c ’000 1 006 1 295 1 100 –15.1Live feeder/slaughter cattle exports c 000 1 006 1 295 1 100 –15.1value A$m 795 1 163 1 350 16 1– value A$m 795 1 163 1 350 16.1

P iPrice– saleyard Ac/kg cw 293 364 505 38.7 saleyard Ac/kg cw 293 364 505 38.7– US import d USc/kg 439 552 465 –15 8– US import d USc/kg 439 552 465 –15.8J i t US /k 593 667 660 1 0– Japan import e USc/kg 593 667 660 –1.0

a At 30 June. b Carcase weight. c Includes buffalo. d Cow 90CL US cif price. e Chilled grassfed fullset Japan cif a t 30 Ju e b Ca case e g t c c udes bu a o d Co 90C US c p ce e C ed g ass ed u set Japa cprice. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.price. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture and Water Resources Canberra;Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, Canberra; M t & Li t k A t liMeat & Livestock Australia


Sheep meat and woolPeter Berry, Peter Collins and John Hogan

• Lamb and sheep prices are forecast to increase in 2015–16, reflecting reduced slaughter and lower lamb availability as producers rebuild flocks.

• Flock rebuilding is expected to drive reduced rates of turn-off in 2015–16, and as a result the sheep flock is forecast to increase to 71.2 million head by June 2016.

• Australian wool exports are forecast to fall by 4 per cent to around 440 000 tonnes in 2015–16 as a result of lower opening flock numbers and a reduced proportion of wethers.

• The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price of wool is forecast to average higher in 2015–16, reflecting a forecast fall in production and the effect of a lower Australian dollar.

Unfavourable seasonal conditions in some sheep growing regions, particularly in September and October, reduced the quality of pastures in those regions. This influenced some producers to increase turn-off, particularly in parts of New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia where sheep and lambs sold through saleyards (yardings) were up by around 9 per cent year-on-year in the four months to October. Nationally, yardings increased by 8 per cent over the same period.

However, over the three months to September, national lamb and sheep slaughter fell year-on-year by 2 per cent and 5 per cent respectively. Taking into account this reduction in slaughter, the increase in yardings indicates that graziers with sufficiently good pastures were buying sheep from saleyards to further rebuild their flocks. The most significant falls in slaughter were recorded in New South Wales, where lamb and sheep slaughter fell year-on-year by 9 per cent and 32 per cent respectively. In contrast, continued dry conditions in Victoria resulted in sheep slaughter increasing by 16 per cent.

Widespread rainfall in November improved pasture growth in many sheep producing regions. This is likely to result in reduced turn-off, at least in the near term.

Sheep meat and wool


Lamb and sheep prices to riseAverage saleyard price of lambs is forecast to increase by 9 per cent to 565 cents a kilogram in 2015–16. This mainly reflects lower lamb availability after sheep numbers fell 3 per cent in 2014–15 to 70.3 million head. Lamb prices are also expected to be supported by increased restocker demand and lamb retention rates, as growers continue rebuilding their flocks in the second half of the year, when seasonal conditions are assumed to improve. Demand for lamb exports from the United States and the Middle East is expected to remain steady, providing further support for saleyard prices.

Lamb saleyard price and slaughter, Australia

Lamb slaughter

millionhead

2015–16c/kg

Lamb saleyardprice (right axis)

5

10

15

20

25

150

300

450

600

750

f ABARES forecast.

2015–16f

2014–15

2013–14

2012–13

2011–12

2010–11

2009–10

2008–09

2007–08

The saleyard price of sheep is forecast to increase by 10 per cent to 365 cents a kilogram in 2015–16, following strong rises in the past two years. The forecast increase in sheep prices reflects expected reduced turn-off and the effect of a lower Australian dollar on export returns. Prices will also be supported by an expected increase in restocker demand—particularly in south-eastern Australia—in the second half of the year, when seasonal conditions are assumed to improve.

Sheep saleyard price and slaughter, Australia

Sheep slaughter

millionhead

2015–16c/kg

Sheep saleyardprice (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2015–16f

2014–15

2013–14

2012–13

2011–12

2010–11

2009–10

2008–09

2007–08

2

4

6

8

10

12

80

160

240

320

400

480

Sheep meat and wool


Wool prices to average higher in 2015–16The Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) price of wool is forecast to increase by 10 per cent to average around 1 210 cents a kilogram clean in 2015–16, reflecting the combination of a forecast fall in wool production and an assumed lower Australian dollar.

In the first half of 2015, the EMI rose sharply to reach a weekly high for the year of 1 373 cents a kilogram in June 2015. The rising price reflected demand to replenish stocks along the supply chain and a falling Australian dollar. Since June the EMI has trended down, largely reflecting a seasonal increase in Australian wool supply. Despite the decline, the EMI averaged 20 per cent higher in the five months to November compared with the same period a year earlier. However, the EMI is expected to continue trending down for the remainder of 2015–16 because demand to replenish stocks in major importing countries is expected to weaken. Evidence also exists of weaker demand for woollen apparel in the European Union and possibly China in response to weaker economic growth. At the same time, the forecast fall in wool production and the lower Australian dollar will limit the expected fall in the EMI over the remainder of the year.

Australian Eastern Market Indicator wool price and weekly sales

c/kgclean

’000bales

Bales sold (right axis)EMI

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

Nov2015

May2015

Nov2014

May2014

Nov2013

May2013

Nov2012

Sheep meat production to fallAustralian lamb slaughter was 2 per cent lower in the September quarter compared with the same period a year earlier. For 2015–16 as a whole, lamb slaughter is forecast to fall by 3 per cent to 22.2 million head as a result of lower opening flock numbers and an assumed increase in flock rebuilding activity in the second half of the year. Lamb production is forecast to fall by more than 4 per cent to 486 000 tonnes in 2015–16, which reflects the forecast fall in slaughter and a small decline in average carcase weight.

Sheep slaughter is forecast to fall by 11 per cent to 8 million head in 2015–16 and mutton production is forecast to fall by 12 per cent to 189 000 tonnes. This reflects an assumed return to more favourable seasonal conditions, which is expected to drive increased retention of breeding ewes for flock rebuilding, particularly in the second half of 2015–16.

Sheep meat and wool


Sheep meat production, Australia

kt

f ABARES forecast.

MuttonLamb

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

Sheep turn-off to decline as producers rebuild flocksThe Australian sheep flock is forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2015–16 to around 71.2 million head. Below average rainfall and above average temperatures in the first half of 2015–16 in much of southern and eastern Australia hampered graziers seeking to rebuild their flocks. Unfavourable seasonal conditions reduced carrying capacity and high turn-off continued, particularly in Victoria. Despite this, national slaughter rates declined as graziers in less affected regions with sufficiently good pastures—such as in parts of New South Wales—sought to boost flock numbers. In the second half of the year, seasonal conditions are assumed to improve in south-eastern Australia and more widespread flock rebuilding is expected.

Sheep flock, Australia

millionhead

f ABARES forecast.

Wethers and ramsLambs

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

20

40

60

80

100

Ewes

Sheep meat and wool


Wool production to fallShorn wool production is forecast to fall by 2 per cent to around 340 000 tonnes in 2015–16. This forecast fall largely reflects a smaller opening flock following high rates of turn-off in 2014–15. Nationally, average fleece weight is expected to decline by around 1 per cent as a result of a lower proportion of wethers in the opening flock combined with unfavourable seasonal conditions and poor pastures in parts of south-eastern Australia in the first half of the year.

Shorn wool production and price, Australia

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

Shorn woolproduction

kt greasy2015–16Ac/kg clean

EMI (right axis)

100

200

300

400

500

300

600

900

1 200

1 500

f ABARES forecast.

Domestic sheep meat consumptionDomestic consumption of lamb increased by almost 6 per cent to 221 000 tonnes in 2014–15, while the average retail price rose by 4 per cent to around 1 320 cents a kilogram. However, domestic lamb consumption per person has been in decline over the long term, falling from around 14 kilograms a person in 1990–91 to 9.3 kilograms in 2014–15. This trend is largely driven by the lower prices of substitute meats, particularly chicken.

Retail price indexes for meat, Australia

index1990–91

=100

BeefLamb

ChickenPig meat

40

80

120

160

200

2014–15

2011–12

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

1999–2000

1996–97

1993–94

1990–91

Sheep meat and wool


Exports of sheep meat to decline

LambAustralian lamb exports are forecast to fall by 3 per cent in 2015–16 to 234 000 tonnes. Despite a 10 per cent year-on-year fall in lamb exports in the September quarter, unit export values increased by 6 per cent. This was supported by continuing strong demand from the Middle East and steady demand from the United States. Overall demand for lamb in Australia’s major export markets except China is expected to remain steady in the remainder of 2015–16. However, the supply of lamb available for export is expected to fall because of the forecast fall in slaughter.

In the four months to October 2015, the volume of Australian lamb exported to China was down by 33 per cent year-on-year. This reflects strong increases in Chinese domestic lamb production and strong competition from New Zealand in that market. Australian lamb export volumes declined slightly to some other major markets, particularly the United States (down 5 per cent) and the Middle East (down 1 per cent), compared with the same period in the previous year. However, export unit values to these markets averaged higher year-on-year—more than offsetting the effect of the volume decline on the value of lamb exports.

Australian lamb exports to major markets

kt

f ABARES forecast.

OtherEuropean UnionAsia (excluding China)ChinaUnited StatesMiddle East

50

100

150

200

250

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

Expected steady export demand from the Middle East and the United States, combined with an assumed lower Australian dollar, is expected to increase export unit values for lamb and more than offset the forecast decline in export volumes. As a result, total value of Australian lamb exports in 2015–16 is forecast to increase by 1 per cent to $1.7 billion.

MuttonAustralian mutton exports are forecast to decline by 11 per cent to 151 000 tonnes in 2015–16 as a result of an expected reduction in slaughter. However, expected steady export demand for mutton from markets in the Middle East and Asia (with the exception of China) and an assumed lower Australian dollar are forecast to lead to increased export unit returns—partially offsetting the effect of lower export volumes on the value of mutton exports. As a result, the value of mutton exports is forecast to fall by 2 per cent to $761 million in 2015–16.

Sheep meat and wool


Australian mutton exports to major markets

kt

f ABARES forecast.

OtherEuropean UnionAsia (excluding China)ChinaUnited StatesMiddle East

50

100

150

200

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

Competing sheep meat suppliesNew Zealand is the world’s largest exporter of sheep meat and Australia’s only major export competitor in world markets. New Zealand sheep meat has a strong price advantage in China (a major destination for exports from Australia and New Zealand) as a result of the New Zealand–China Free Trade Agreement. Under this agreement, tariffs on imports of New Zealand sheep meat will be completely removed in 2016. In contrast, sheep meat imports from Australia currently face tariffs of up to 23 per cent. Under the China–Australia Free Trade Agreement, these tariffs will be phased out gradually over the eight years to 2023.

Despite New Zealand’s strong price advantage, a long-term shift towards dairy farming, together with recent drought conditions, resulted in the New Zealand sheep flock falling to 28.6 million head in June 2015. For 2015–16 as a whole, lower flock numbers are expected to drive a reduction in New Zealand lamb exports as producers reduce turn-off in order to rebuild their flocks. This will provide opportunities for Australian sheep meat exports, including to China.

Live sheep exports to fall but value to riseAustralia’s live sheep exports are forecast to fall by 5 per cent to around 2.1 million head in 2015–16, driven by reduced availability of stock for export as a result of strong competition for sheep and lambs from the meat processing sector and graziers seeking to rebuild their flocks. Strong export demand for live sheep is expected to continue, particularly from Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. In the September quarter 2015, the number of live sheep exported was down 13 per cent year-on-year, but stronger export prices resulted in total export value falling only by 7 per cent.

For 2015–16 as a whole, the value of live sheep exports is forecast to increase by 6 per cent to $260 million, with lower availability of sheep for export and steady demand from the Middle East resulting in higher export prices.

Sheep meat and wool


Wool export volume to fallThe volume of Australian wool exports is forecast to fall by 4 per cent to 440 000 tonnes (greasy equivalent) in 2015–16, largely reflecting a forecast fall in shorn wool production and slowing demand for woollen apparel in key markets. The value of Australian wool exports is forecast to increase by 9 per cent to around $3.5 billion, with forecast higher export prices more than offsetting expected reduction in export volumes. China remains the major destination for Australian wool exports, reflecting its importance as the world’s largest early-stage processor of wool and largest producer and exporter of woollen fabric and clothing.

In the first quarter of 2015–16, the volume of wool exports fell by 4 per cent to 89 000 tonnes compared with the same period in 2014–15. Over this period, the volume of wool exports to China fell by 3 per cent year-on-year but the value of exports rose by 25 per cent as a result of higher export prices.

Demand for woollen textiles and apparel slowingFuture demand for Australian wool depends on demand for woollen textiles and apparel. Evidence suggests that demand in the European Union is slowing and growth in the United States has weakened. Weakening economic growth in China has the potential to adversely affect Chinese domestic demand for woollen textiles and apparel. Around half the raw wool imports into China are estimated to be consumed domestically.

The United States is the largest importer of woollen clothing and apparel. Trade data released by the US Office of Textiles and Apparel (OTEXA) indicate that growth in US imports of wool products (including apparel and carpets) is slowing, despite rising economic growth and an appreciating US dollar. The import volume of these products increased by 4 per cent in 2014 to 611 million square metre equivalents. However, in the nine months to September 2015, the year-on-year volume of US imports was only marginally higher at 443 million square metre equivalents.

In 2014 EU imports of wool products increased by 4 per cent to 118 225 tonnes. However, in the seven months to July 2015, the volume of EU imports of wool products fell by almost 5 per cent to 54 678 tonnes compared with the same period a year earlier. Fragile economic conditions and a significant depreciation of the euro have adversely affected domestic demand and resulted in weaker import volumes. Over the remainder of 2015–16, economic conditions in the European Union are not expected to strengthen significantly.

The European Union also manufactures and exports woollen products. The volume of EU exports of woollen products fell by 3 per cent in 2014 to 81 100 tonnes, continuing the steady annual decline in these exports since 2011. In the seven months to July 2015, the volume of EU exports of woollen products increased year-on-year by only 1 per cent to 50 871 tonnes. Given the assumption of modest world economic growth, EU exports of woollen products are not expected to increase markedly in the short term.

Sheep meat and wool


Outlook for sheep meat and wool

O l k f h d lOutlookforsheepmeatandwoolOutlookforsheepmeatandwoolunit 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f % changeg

Sheep numbers a million 72.6 70.3 71.2 1.3Sheep numbers a million 72.6 70.3 71.2 1.3Sheep shorn million 78 1 77 0 76 4 0 8Sheep shorn million 78.1 77.0 76.4 – 0.8Sl h iSlaughterings Lambs ’000 21 899 22 867 22 178 –3.0

g gLambs 000 21 899 22 867 22 178 3.0Sheep ’000 10 066 9 022 8 032 –11 0Sheep ’000 10 066 9 022 8 032 –11.0P d tiProductionLamb b kt 474 507 486 –4.1Lamb b kt 474 507 486 4.1Mutton b kt 228 214 189 –11 7Mutton b kt 228 214 189 –11.7Wool production (greasy)Wool production (greasy)– shorn kt 341 347 340 –2.0– other c kt 79 81 77 –4.9– other c kt 79 81 77 –4.9total kt 419 428 417 2 6– total kt 419 428 417 –2.6

E tExportsLamb kt swt 226 242 234 –3.3Lamb kt swt 226 242 234 3.3– value $m 1 468 1 696 1 714 1 1– value $m 1 468 1 696 1 714 1.1M tton kt t 183 169 151 10 7Mutton kt swt 183 169 151 –10.7– value $m 758 778 761 –2.2 value $Live sheep ’000 2 020 2 180 2 075 –4.8Live sheep 000 2 020 2 180 2 075 –4.8value $m 185 245 260 6 1– value $m 185 245 260 6.1

W lWool– volume (gr. equiv.) kt 428 459 440 –4.1 volume (gr. equiv.) kt 428 459 440 4.1– to China kt 324 352 340 –3 4– to China kt 324 352 340 –3.4

l d $ 2 877 3 154 3 450 9 4– value d $m 2 877 3 154 3 450 9.4PricesLambs e Ac/kg cw 476 518 565 9.1PricesLambs e Ac/kg cw 476 518 565 9.1Sheep Ac/kg cw 262 332 365 9 9Sheep e Ac/kg cw 262 332 365 9.9

/Eastern Market Indicator g Ac/kg 1 070 1 102 1 210 9.8g / ga At 30 June. b Carcase weight. c Includes wool on sheepskins, fellmongered and slipe wool. a At 30 June. b Carcase weight. c Includes wool on sheepskins, fellmongered and slipe wool. d Balance of payments basis e Saleyard prices f ABARES forecast g Clean equivalent s ABARESd Balance of payments basis. e Saleyard prices. f ABARES forecast. g Clean equivalent. s ABARES estimateestimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Wool Exchange; Department of ; ; g ; pAgriculture and Water Resources, CanberraAgriculture and Water Resources, Canberra


DairyOwen McCarthy

• World dairy prices are forecast to average lower in 2015–16, mainly reflecting reduced demand from major importing countries.

• World milk production is forecast to increase in 2015–16 but at a slower rate than in 2014–15.

• Australian milk production is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2015–16.

World dairy pricesWorld dairy prices rose in September 2015, largely because of reduced milk production in New Zealand. However, price increases are not expected to be sustained for the remainder of 2015–16 because milk production is expected to increase in the European Union and the United States. Global import demand for dairy products is also expected to remain weak.

In 2015–16 world dairy prices are forecast to fall by between 4 per cent and 15 per cent in year-average terms. World prices of skim milk powder and cheese are forecast to fall in 2015–16, by 15 per cent and 13 per cent to average US$2 200 a tonne and US$3 400 a tonne respectively. Prices are forecast to fall by 10 per cent for whole milk powder to average US$2 500 a tonne and by 4 per cent for butter to average US$3 350 a tonne.

World dairy prices

US$/t

Skim milk powder

Whole milk powderCheeseButter

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

Oct2015

Oct2014

Oct2013

Oct2012

Oct2011

Oct2010

Oct2009

Oct2008

Oct2007

Dairy


Global milk supply to increaseGlobal milk production is forecast to increase slightly in 2015–16 as expected production increases in the European Union and the United States more than offset a decline in New Zealand. However, world production growth is expected to be slower than in 2014–15, with forecast lower world dairy product prices reducing dairy farmers’ returns.

European UnionMilk production in the European Union is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in the 2015–16 marketing year (April to March), reflecting higher milk yields and an expansion of the EU dairy herd. This follows the removal of the milk quota system in April 2015. Milk production was 3 per cent higher year-on-year in the period April to August 2015, with large increases in Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands and Poland. Investments in milk production capacity in these member states were timed to begin operation when quotas were removed.

Average farmgate milk prices in the European Union were around 16 per cent lower year-on-year in October 2015. This reflected lower EU wholesale prices for most dairy products in the 12 months to October 2015 as a result of increased supplies and subdued global import demand.

The European Commission has implemented several market support measures for dairy farmers. In September 2015 it announced a direct support package of 420 million euros mainly for dairy farmers. The package was divided among member states based on each state’s 2014–15 milk quota allocation. The commission has continued private storage aid (PSA) and public intervention schemes for skim milk powder and butter into 2016. The uptake of PSA in 2015 has been larger than that of the other scheme, with PSA stocks of butter and skim milk powder amounting to 99 467 tonnes and 24 127 tonnes respectively in August 2015. Skim milk powder stocks under the public intervention scheme amounted to 14 605 tonnes in the same period. No butter has been purchased under this scheme because prices have remained above the intervention price. In September 2015 the commission announced the reopening of PSA for cheese for up to 100 000 tonnes. The volume of cheese that each member state can submit for the scheme is determined by its cheese production.

EU dairy exports are forecast to increase in 2015–16 as the increase in EU milk production outpaces domestic consumption growth of dairy products. EU dairy exports have become more competitive than US exports on the world market as a result of the weakening of the euro against the US dollar.

Dairy


United StatesMilk production in the United States is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to 96.6 million tonnes in 2016, following an estimated 1 per cent increase in 2015. This mainly reflects a continued improvement in the milk yield per cow. The size of the dairy herd is expected to remain largely unchanged as lower farmgate milk prices discourage dairy herd expansion.

US dairy exports fell in 2015, with a strong US dollar reducing the competitiveness of US exports on world markets. Strong domestic demand for butter and cheese also resulted in high domestic prices for these products. These factors encouraged manufacturers to divert butter and cheese exports to the domestic market. In 2016 domestic butter and cheese prices are expected to decline in response to rising domestic production and increased butter and cheese imports.

Dairy exports, January to August, United States

kt

2015

2014

ButterCheese

50

100

150

200

250

300

New ZealandMilk production in New Zealand is forecast to fall by around 6 per cent in 2015–16 (June to May) following a 4 per cent increase in 2014–15. The forecast decline in production largely reflects significant declines in farmgate milk prices. Farmgate milk prices have fallen significantly in New Zealand in response to declining world dairy prices. Farmgate milk prices in New Zealand are sensitive to movements in world dairy prices because the majority of New Zealand milk production is used in the manufacture of dairy products for the export market. Lower farmgate milk prices have encouraged producers to reduce supplementary feed use and stocking rates. Adverse weather conditions in winter and early spring also negatively affected pasture growth early in the season.

The size of the dairy herd in New Zealand is expected to fall by around 2 per cent in 2015 as producers respond to low farmgate milk prices and high beef prices by culling less productive cows.

Dairy


New Zealand exports of most dairy products are forecast to fall in 2015–16 in response to declining milk production. Exports of whole milk powder, New Zealand’s major manufactured dairy product, are forecast to decline by 3 per cent. New Zealand manufacturers are expected to channel more milk into cheese production than whole milk powder production, reflecting more favourable prices for cheese than whole milk powder on world markets. This is expected to increase New Zealand cheese exports in 2015–16.

Dairy cows, New Zealand

South Island

North Island

millionhead

f ABARES forecast.

2015f20132011200920072005

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

ArgentinaMilk production in Argentina is estimated at around 10.7 million tonnes in 2015, a 4 per cent decline from 2014. Milk production was adversely affected by excessively wet conditions in the first quarter of 2015 and slowed in the second half of the year as farmgate milk prices declined significantly. Demand for dairy products on the domestic market and from major export destinations, including the Russian Federation, was subdued in 2015, which resulted in a build-up of dairy product stocks.

Milk production in Argentina is forecast to fall by 3 per cent in 2016. Farmgate milk prices are expected to decline further in response to stock build-up from 2015 and slow demand growth on the domestic market. Exports of dairy products in 2016 are expected to remain similar to 2015 as demand from major export markets such as the Russian Federation and Brazil remains low.

Demand from major dairy importers remains weakWorld import demand for dairy products is expected to remain weak in 2015–16 because of reduced demand from China and the Russian Federation, the world’s two largest dairy product importers. In contrast, import demand is expected to grow in South-East Asia.

Dairy


ChinaChina’s milk powder imports are estimated at around 400 000 tonnes of whole milk powder and 200 000 tonnes of skim milk powder in 2015, representing declines of 40 per cent and 21 per cent respectively from 2014. China’s demand for dairy imports was weaker in 2015 because of a large build-up of milk powder stocks, an increase in domestic milk production and slower growth in domestic consumption. In 2016 China’s imports of dairy products are forecast to increase slightly. Milk powder stocks are expected to fall as domestic demand growth outpaces growth in domestic milk production.

Milk production is forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2016 following an estimated 4 per cent increase in 2015. This largely reflects improvements in milk yields. The rate of growth is expected to be slower in 2016 because declining farmgate milk prices are encouraging small-holder producers to leave the sector and some larger enterprises to delay new investments.

Milk production, China

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

10

20

30

40

50

2015f20132011200920072005

Russian FederationThe Russian Federation’s imports of butter and cheese are estimated to have declined by 27 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively, in 2015. Imports fell significantly as a result of a reduction in import demand and the trade embargo with key trading partners. Import demand weakened in response to a depreciation of the Russian ruble, which made imported products more expensive relative to products produced domestically. In addition, a contraction of the Russian economy caused real incomes to decline.

Imports of dairy products by the Russian Federation are expected to decline again in 2016. The Russian economy is expected to contract further in 2016, which will have a negative impact on import demand. The Russian Federation has extended its trade embargo until at least August 2016.

Dairy


Milk production in the Russian Federation fell by an estimated 2 per cent in 2015. This largely reflected the exit of many smallholder producers because of low farmgate milk prices and high input costs. Milk production is forecast to decline slightly further in 2016. However, improvements in milk yields at large-scale commercial dairies are expected to partially offset the reduction in supply from smallholder producers.

ASEANASEAN countries’ dairy imports are expected to rise in 2016 in response to assumed economic growth and continued low world prices. Domestic production is small relative to consumption in the region and imports are required to meet growth in domestic demand. The region is a large importer of milk powders, particularly skim milk powder. Imports of skim milk powder into the region in 2015 are estimated at 320 000 tonnes, a 3 per cent rise from 2014.

Middle East and North AfricaDairy product imports into the Middle East and North Africa region are estimated to have remained largely unchanged in 2015. Low world prices encouraged countries in this region to increase imports as they became more affordable. However, increased shipments in late 2014 and early 2015 also led to an accumulation of stockpiles in the region. Algeria, the region’s largest importer of milk powders, reduced its imports of skim milk powder by an estimated 25 per cent in 2015. Its imports of whole milk powder were similar to those of 2014.

Milk powder imports, Algeria

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2015f20132011200920072005

Whole milk powderSkim milk powder

50

100

150

200

250

In 2016 dairy product imports into the region are forecast to decline slightly, largely reflecting a continued build-up of stocks in the region.

Dairy


Australian dairy outlookThe average Australian farmgate milk price is forecast to fall by 2 per cent in 2015–16 to around 47.5 cents a litre, largely reflecting forecast lower world dairy product prices. Partially offsetting the effect of lower world prices is an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar, which will support producer returns.

Australian milk production is forecast to remain largely unchanged at 9.75 billion litres in 2015–16, with higher milk yields offsetting lower cow numbers. Spring weather conditions were dry until November in some key milk producing regions, including western Victoria, Gippsland and the Murray, which increased the need for supplementary feed use. The size of the national dairy herd is forecast to decline by 1 per cent to 1.73 million head in 2015–16 as producers take advantage of high beef prices and cull less productive cows.

Milk production and dairy cows, Australia

Milk production

BL ’000 head

Dairy cows (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2

4

6

8

10

12

400

800

1 200

1 600

2 000

2 400

2015–16f

2013–14

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

Australian exportsThe total value of Australian dairy exports is forecast to decline by 6 per cent to $2.3 billion in 2015–16, following a 9 per cent decline in 2014–15. A fall in world dairy prices in year-average terms is expected to more than offset the effect of an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar on export returns.

Export volumes are forecast to remain similar in 2015–16 as demand from most Asian countries remains strong. Australia’s largest export destinations for cheese and skim milk powder are Japan and Indonesia, respectively. Demand from both of these countries is expected to increase in 2015–16. However, Australian exporters are expected to face increased competition from the European Union because of relatively large EU supplies of dairy products available for export.

Dairy


Outlook for dairy

O tl k f d iOutlookfordairyi 20 3 20 20 6 f % h

Outlookfordairyunit 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f % change

AustraliaCow numbers a ’000 1 647 1 740 1 730 ‐0 6AustraliaCow numbers a ’000 1 647 1 740 1 730 ‐0.6Milk i ld L/ 5 691 5 593 5 636 0 8Milk yields L/cow 5 691 5 593 5 636 0.8yProductionTotal milk ML 9 372 9 732 9 750 0 2ProductionTotal milk ML 9 372 9 732 9 750 0.2market sales ML 2 464 2 485 2 495 0 4– market sales ML 2 464 2 485 2 495 0.4

– manufacturing ML 6 908 7 247 7 255 0.1gButter b kt 116 119 122 2.5Butter b kt 116 119 122 2.5Cheese kt 311 344 350 1 7Cheese kt 311 344 350 1.7Wh l ilk d k 126 99 90 9 1Whole milk powder kt 126 99 90 –9.1pSkim milk powder kt 211 234 240 2.6Skim milk powder kt 211 234 240 2.6Farmgate milk price Ac/L 51 49 48 –2 1Farmgate milk price Ac/L 51 49 48 –2.1Val e of e ports A$ 2 725 2 473 2 316 6 3Value of exports A$m 2 725 2 473 2 316 –6.3World pricesButter US$/t 4 498 3 483 3 350 –3.8

pButter US$/t 4 498 3 483 3 350 –3.8Cheese US$/t 4 817 3 921 3 400 13 3Cheese US$/t 4 817 3 921 3 400 –13.3Ski ilk d $/Skim milk powder US$/t 4 513 2 592 2 200 –15.1pWhole milk powder US$/t 4 833 2 775 2 500 –9.9Whole milk powder US$/t 4 833 2 775 2 500 9.9a At 30 June b Includes the butter equivalent of butter oil butter concentrate ghee and drya At 30 June. b Includes the butter equivalent of butter oil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat f ABARES forecast s ABARES estimatebutterfat. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Dairy Australia; ; y

Dairy


127Department of Agriculture, Fisheries & Forestry Document Title Goes Here

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Statistical tables


Figures

1 Contribution to GDP Australia, chain volume measures, reference year 2013–14 129

2 Markets for Australian merchandise exports in 2014–15 dollars 129

3 Sources of Australian merchandise imports in 2014–15 dollars 130

4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal) 131

5 Contribution to exports by sector, balance of payments basis 137

Tables

1 Indexes of prices received by farmers 134

2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers, and terms of trade 135

3 Farm costs and returns 136

4 Volume of production indexes 138

5 Industry gross value added 138

6 Employment 139

7 All banks lending to business 139

8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions 140

9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities 140

10 Gross unit values of farm products 141

11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities 142

12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production 143

13 Gross value of farm, fisheries and forestry production 146

14 Crop and forestry areas and livestock numbers 148

15 Average farm yields 149

16 Volume of agricultural and fisheries exports 150

17 Value of agricultural and fisheries exports (fob) 152

18 Agricultural exports to China (fob) 154

19 Agricultural exports to Indonesia (fob) 155

20 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) 156

21 Agricultural exports to the Republic of Korea (fob) 157

22 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) 158

23 Volume of fisheries products exports 159

24 Value of fisheries products exports (fob) 160

25 Volume of fisheries products imports 161

26 Value of fisheries products imports 162

27 Value of Australian fisheries products trade, by selected countries 163

28 Volume of forest products exports 164

29 Value of forest products exports (fob) 165

30 Volume of forest products imports 166

31 Value of forest products imports 167

32 Value of Australian forest products trade, by selected countries 168


GDP, exports

FIGURE 2 Markets for Australian merchandise exports in 2014–15 dollars

China China

Japan Japan

ASEAN ASEAN

Other Asia Other Asia

European Union 28 European Union 28

Middle East Middle East

United States United States

Other Other

Japan Japan

China China

Korea, Rep. of Korea, Rep. of


New Zealand New Zealand

India India

European Union 28 European Union 28

Other Other

Japan Japan

Hong Kong Hong Kong

China China


Singapore Singapore

Taiwan Taiwan

Vietnam Vietnam

Other Other

2014–152004–05

Total $165.7b $254.6b

$35.7b $43.6bAgriculture

$2.0b $1.4bFisheries

20% 17%

10% 32%

8% 7%

7% 5%

7% 3%

5% 4%

11% 5%

32% 27%

9% 20%

20% 10%

14% 19%

15% 15%

10% 6%

7% 7%

12% 12%

13% 11%

29% 15%

34% 17%

7% 4%

10% 3%

3% 3%

5% 1%

1% 50%

11% 7%

FIGURE 1 Contribution to GDP Australia, chain volume measures, reference year 2013–14

Services 75%

Mining 9%

Building and construction 8%

Manufacturing 6%

Agriculture, fishing and forestry 2%

Services 75%

Manufacturing 9%

Mining 6%

Building and construction 7%

Agriculture, fishing and forestry 3%

2014–15

$1 619.2b

2004–05

$1 235.7b


Import markets

FIGURE 3 Sources of Australian merchandise imports in 2014–15 dollars

United States

Japan

China

Germany

Malaysia

Singapore

New Zealand

Other

United States

Japan

China

Germany

Malaysia

Singapore

New Zealand

Other

China

ASEAN

Other Asia

European Union 28

New Zealand

United States

Other

China

ASEAN

Other Asia

European Union 28

New Zealand

United States

Other

2014–152004–05

Total $195.3b $256.4b

$8.8b $16.5bAgriculture

$1.5b $2.0bFisheriesThailand

New Zealand

China

Vietnam

Malaysia

United States

Other

Thailand

New Zealand

China

Vietnam

Malaysia

United States

Other

14% 11%

11% 7%

13% 22%

6% 5%

4% 4%

5% 4%

4% 3%

43% 44%

20% 21%

14% 10%

8% 15%

10% 12%

2% 5%

3% 3%

43% 34%

5% 6%

15% 21%

4% 5%

31% 23%

18% 18%

11 % 11%

16% 16%


Export markets

FIGURE 4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal)

Quantity wheat

kt

Value wheat

$m

Quantity barley

kt

Value barley

$m

Quantity sugar

kt

Value sugar

$m

Quantity wine

ML

Value wine

$m

2014–152004–05

Korea, Rep. of

Indonesia

Malaysia

Japan

United States

New Zealand

Indonesia

Korea, Rep. of

Malaysia

Japan

United States

New Zealand

200 400 600 1 000800

Indonesia

Vietnam

100 200 300 400 500

600300 900 1 200 1 500

600300 900 1 200 1 500

200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200

United Kingdom United States

United Kingdom

Canada

New Zealand

China

Hong Kong

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

Iran

Iraq

China

Japan

Korea, Rep. of

Vietnam

Saudi Arabia

China

Japan

Korea, Rep. of

Vietnam

United ArabEmirates

Saudi Arabia

United ArabEmirates

United States

Canada

China

New Zealand

Hong Kong

50 100 150 200 250 300

Indonesia

Vietnam

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

Iran

Iraq

continued ...


Export markets

FIGURE 4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal) continued

Quantity wool

kt

Value wool

$m

Quantity beef and veal

kt

Value beef and veal

$m

Quantity sheep meat

kt

Value sheep meat

$m

Quantity cheese

kt

Value cheese

$m

2014–152004–05

China

India

Czech Republic

Italy

Korea, Rep. of

Taiwan

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

China

India

Italy

Czech Republic

Korea, Rep. of

Taiwan

China

United States

United ArabEmirates

EuropeanUnion 28

Japan

Saudi Arabia

Japan

China

Malaysia

Korea, Rep. of

Singapore

Hong Kong

20 40 60 80 100

Japan

China

Malaysia

Singapore

Korea, Rep. of

Hong Kong

100 200 300 400 500 600

United States

Japan

Korea, Rep. of

China

Taiwan

EuropeanUnion 28

China

United States

United ArabEmirates

EuropeanUnion 28

Japan

Saudi Arabia

United States

Japan

Korea, Rep. of

China

Taiwan

EuropeanUnion 28

100 200 300 400 500 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500

20 40 60 80 100 120 100 200 300 400 500

continued ...


Export markets

FIGURE 4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal) continued

Quantity paper and paperboard

kt

Value paper and paperboard

$m

Quantity edible fish

kt

Value edible fish

$m

Quantity edible crustaceans and molluscs Value edible crustaceans and molluscs

$m

2014–152004–05

20015010050

United States

New Zealand

China

Philippines

South Africa

United States

New Zealand

China

Philippines

South Africa

50 100 150 200 250

Japan

Hong Kong

100 200kt

50 100 150 200 250 300

3 6 9 12 15

2 4 6 8 10 300 400

Japan

China

New Zealand

United States

Hong Kong

Thailand

Hong Kong

China

New Zealand

United States

Hong Kong

Thailand

Japan

China

Malaysia

Singapore

Taiwan

Japan

China

Malaysia

Singapore

Taiwan


TABLE 1 Indexes of prices received by farmers Australia

STATISTICS

2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f

Barley 135.8 131.7 173.4 167.9 186.0 184.7Canola 141.1 133.1 142.1 144.1 125.1 136.2Grain sorghum 125.8 111.6 148.9 177.2 181.7 164.9Lupins 136.9 118.7 173.5 176.4 149.3 169.4Oats 143.2 147.7 172.9 156.0 172.6 186.0Wheat 130.1 114.6 158.3 159.8 155.7 152.3Total grains a 126.3 115.7 147.9 149.8 149.6 149.6Cotton 103.6 110.8 98.2 103.9 99.0 105.4Hay 151.1 133.0 144.9 160.9 169.6 183.1Fruit 181.8 181.4 156.5 158.8 170.4 174.3Sugar 128.0 147.1 128.3 125.4 111.8 110.8Vegetables 167.3 161.3 172.8 174.1 179.1 183.2Total crops sector 121.9 117.8 129.7 131.1 131.7 133.1

Cattle 172.6 173.3 163.3 156.3 194.1 269.4Lambs b 255.4 250.8 182.8 201.8 225.9 257.2Sheep 438.0 390.3 200.0 250.8 326.9 374.9Live sheep for export 304.6 343.7 247.6 233.4 286.6 319.6Pigs 135.7 134.5 132.5 151.7 157.3 168.3Poultry 110.1 108.3 114.4 116.9 117.5 118.7Total livestock for slaughter 175.6 175.0 158.6 161.2 188.3 238.6

Wool 158.4 169.2 144.4 153.5 154.8 169.9Milk 143.5 139.5 132.6 169.1 162.5 159.2Eggs 104.2 104.2 107.4 112.7 114.6 113.0Total livestock products 143.9 145.2 134.0 157.2 154.4 157.0Store and breeding stock 194.0 199.5 173.8 169.2 206.7 281.3Total livestock sector 162.6 163.2 148.3 157.5 174.7 209.6Total prices received 139.4 137.2 138.2 142.9 151.0 167.4a Total for the group includes commodities not separately listed. b Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kilograms. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Indexes for most individual commodities are based on annual gross unit value of production. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Source: ABARES

Livestock products

Livestock sector

1IndexesofpricesreceivedbyfarmersAustraliaCrops sector Grains

Livestock for slaughter

Prices


TABLE 2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers, and terms of trade Australia

STATISTICS

2 d f d b f d f d2Indexesofpricespaidbyfarmers,andtermsoftradeAustralia2Indexesofpricespaidbyfarmers,andtermsoftradeAustralia2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 s 2015 16 f

Farmers’ terms of trade a 96 2 93 3 95 2 98 2 103 0 112 0Farmers’ terms of trade a 96.2 93.3 95.2 98.2 103.0 112.0Materials and servicesMaterials and servicesSeed, fodder and livestockFodder and feedstuffs 121.1 115.6 127.1 126.8 134.4 138.5Seed, fodder and livestock Fodder and feedstuffs 121.1 115.6 127.1 126.8 134.4 138.5Seed seedlings and plants 120 0 116 4 128 0 130 6 131 6 134 2 Seed, seedlings and plants 120.0 116.4 128.0 130.6 131.6 134.2

d b d k Store and breeding stock 194.0 199.5 173.8 169.2 206.7 281.3g Total seed, fodder and livestock 137.8 135.1 137.9 136.9 150.6 169.8 Total seed, fodder and livestock 137.8 135.1 137.9 136.9 150.6 169.8Chemicals 110 4 112 6 110 3 113 6 114 7 115 8Chemicals 110.4 112.6 110.3 113.6 114.7 115.8El t i it 158 9 176 8 180 8 185 7 176 4 176 4Electricity 158.9 176.8 180.8 185.7 176.4 176.4Fertiliser 157.3 165.5 157.9 153.2 154.7 157.8Fertiliser 157.3 165.5 157.9 153.2 154.7 157.8Fuel and lubricants 211 3 228 2 216 8 221 1 196 8 177 1Fuel and lubricants 211.3 228.2 216.8 221.1 196.8 177.1Total 146 1 149 2 149 5 150 7 154 8 161 9Total 146.1 149.2 149.5 150.7 154.8 161.9Marketing 144.8 154.1 153.5 159.3 152.9 148.7gOverheadsInsurance 173 7 185 8 190 0 195 2 198 5 202 8OverheadsInsurance 173.7 185.8 190.0 195.2 198.5 202.8I t t id 122 3 114 9 96 4 85 3 79 7 74 1Interest paid 122.3 114.9 96.4 85.3 79.7 74.1pRates and taxes 149.4 152.9 156.4 160.6 163.4 166.9Rates and taxes 149.4 152.9 156.4 160.6 163.4 166.9Other overheads 145 0 148 3 151 7 155 8 158 5 161 9Other overheads 145.0 148.3 151.7 155.8 158.5 161.9Total 133 7 129 9 117 6 110 6 107 2 103 9Total 133.7 129.9 117.6 110.6 107.2 103.9Capital items 149.4 153.2 157.0 161.5 164.8 168.7Capital itemsTotal prices paid 144.9 147.2 145.1 145.5 146.6 149.5Total prices paid 144.9 147.2 145.1 145.5 146.6 149.5Excluding capital items 144 4 146 6 143 9 143 9 144 8 147 6Excluding capital items 144.4 146.6 143.9 143.9 144.8 147.6E l di i l d h dExcluding capital and overheads 147.2 151.2 151.9 154.2 156.6 161.5g pExcluding seed, fodder and store and breeding stock 146 3 149 7 146 5 147 2 145 6 145 0Excluding seed, fodder and store and breeding stock 146.3 149.7 146.5 147.2 145.6 145.0R ti f i d f i i d b f d i d f i id b f f ABARES f t ABARESa Ratio of index of prices received by farmers and index of prices paid by farmers. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES

estimate.Note: The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a Note: The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100 Prices used in these calculations exclude GSTreference year of 1997–98 = 100. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.S A A S ( il d f i k ) A li f S i iSources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of Statistics

Prices


TABLE 3 Farm costs and returns Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f

Chemicals $m 1 462 1 471 1 371 1 459 1 495 1 511Fertiliser $m 2 248 2 344 2 170 2 150 2 163 2 205Fuel and lubricants $m 2 254 2 407 2 233 2 299 2 005 1 793Marketing $m 3 839 4 007 3 853 4 103 4 100 4 136Repairs and maintenance $m 3 660 3 876 4 103 4 500 4 846 5 395Seed and fodder $m 4 213 4 133 4 620 4 670 4 957 5 192Other $m 4 272 4 411 4 541 4 702 4 705 4 759Total materials and services $m 21 949 22 648 22 891 23 884 24 271 24 990Labour $m 4 076 4 170 4 298 4 404 4 296 4 374

Interest paid $m 5 023 4 836 4 259 3 956 3 883 3 792Rent and third‐party insurance $m 513 525 537 551 561 573Total overheads $m 9 612 9 531 9 093 8 912 8 740 8 739Total cash costs $m 31 560 32 179 31 984 32 795 33 011 33 729Depreciation a $m 4 945 5 070 5 197 5 345 5 455 5 585Total farm costs $m 36 505 37 249 37 181 38 140 38 465 39 315

Gross value of farm production $m 46 369 47 418 48 484 51 193 53 491 57 577

Net value of farm production b $m 9 863 10 169 11 303 13 053 15 025 18 262Real net value of farm production c $m 11 013 11 099 12 062 13 561 15 348 18 262Net farm cash income d $m 14 808 15 239 16 500 18 398 20 480 23 848Real net farm cash income c $m 16 535 16 632 17 608 19 115 20 920 23 848

3FarmcostsandreturnsAustralia

a Based on estimated movements in capital expenditure and prices of capital inputs. b Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. c In 2015–16 Australian dollars. d Gross farm cash income less total cash costs. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of Statistics

Costs Materials and services

Overheads

Returns

Net returns and production

Costs and returns


Exports

FIGURE 5 Contribution to exports by sector, balance of payments basis Australia

2011–12

2012–13

2009–10

2010–11

Othermerchandise

18%

Rural a15%

Mineralresources

67%

Othermerchandise

14%

Rural a15%

Mineralresources

71%

Mineralresources

69%

Rural a16%

Othermerchandise

15%

Services18%

Rural a13%

Othermerchandise

12%

Mineralresources57%

Services 16%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

13%

Mineralresources59%

Services17%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

13%

Mineralresources58%

Services20%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

15%

Mineralresources53%

Othermerchandise

15%

Rural a14%

Mineralresources

71%

Proportion ofmerchandise exports

Proportion of exportsof goods and services

a ABARES rural balance of payments adjusted to include farm, fisheries and forestry products classified as other merchandise by Australian Bureau of Statistics.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

2013–14

Mineralresources

70%

Rural a16%

Othermerchandise

14%

Services17%

Rural a13%

Othermerchandise

12%

Mineralresources58%


TABLE 5 Industry gross value added ab Australia

STATISTICS

5 d l dd d5IndustrygrossvalueaddedabAustralia5IndustrygrossvalueaddedabAustraliaunit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15unit 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15

Agriculture forestry and fishingA i lt $ 29 025 30 243 30 595 30 372 30 604 30 463Agriculture, forestry and fishingAgriculture $m 29 025 30 243 30 595 30 372 30 604 30 463Forestry and fishing $m 4 823 4 840 4 984 5 010 5 038 5 244Forestry and fishing $m 4 823 4 840 4 984 5 010 5 038 5 244Total $m 33 864 35 082 35 579 35 382 35 643 35 706Total $m 33 864 35 082 35 579 35 382 35 643 35 706Mining $m 99 627 101 790 109 456 119 067 130 420 139 216Mining $m 99 627 101 790 109 456 119 067 130 420 139 216M f iManufacturingFood, beverage and alcohol $m 25 605 25 596 26 182 26 635 26 627 26 315

gFood, beverage and alcohol $m 25 605 25 596 26 182 26 635 26 627 26 315Textile clothing footwear

d l th $ 5 237 5 052 4 851 4 794 4 939 4 937Textile, clothing, footwear and leather $m 5 237 5 052 4 851 4 794 4 939 4 937Wood and paper products $m 7 318 6 890 6 321 6 317 6 420 6 741Wood and paper products $m 7 318 6 890 6 321 6 317 6 420 6 741Printing publishingand recorded media $m 3 989 3 985 3 582 3 542 3 340 3 090

Printing, publishing and recorded media $m 3 989 3 985 3 582 3 542 3 340 3 090

$Petroleum, coal, chemical products $m 19 291 19 313 19 659 18 577 18 337 17 958, , p $Non‐metallic mineral products $m 6 678 6 572 6 232 5 954 6 012 6 513Non‐metallic mineral products $m 6 678 6 572 6 232 5 954 6 012 6 513Metal products $m 16 386 17 133 17 490 16 000 16 339 15 817Metal products $m 16 386 17 133 17 490 16 000 16 339 15 817M hi d i t $ 21 710 21 272 22 199 21 210 19 793 19 039Machinery and equipment $m 21 710 21 272 22 199 21 210 19 793 19 039y q pTotal manufacturing $m 106 053 105 889 106 588 103 011 101 807 100 407Total manufacturing $m 106 053 105 889 106 588 103 011 101 807 100 407Building and construction $m 103 827 106 820 117 640 120 166 125 512 124 539Building and construction $m 103 827 106 820 117 640 120 166 125 512 124 539Electricity gas and water supply $m 42 469 43 657 43 921 44 316 43 237 43 843Electricity, gas and water supply $m 42 469 43 657 43 921 44 316 43 237 43 843Taxes less subsidies on products $m 99 415 102 162 103 990 105 299 105 266 105 715Taxes less subsidies on products $Statistical discrepancy $m 0 0 0 0 1 2 244Statistical discrepancy $m 0 0 0 0 1 2 244Gross domestic product $m 1 422 363 1 456 209 1 509 109 1 545 932 1 584 578 1 619 196Gross domestic product $m 1 422 363 1 456 209 1 509 109 1 545 932 1 584 578 1 619 196Ch i l f i 2013 14 b ANZSIC 2006a Chain volume measures, reference year is 2013–14. b ANZSIC 2006.

Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian national accounts: national income, expenditure and product, cat. no.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian national accounts: national income, expenditure and product, cat. no. 5206 0 Canberra5206.0, Canberra

TABLE 4 Volume of production indexes Australia

STATISTICS

4 l f d d l4VolumeofproductionindexesAustralia4VolumeofproductionindexesAustraliaunit 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 funit 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 s 2015 16 f

FarmG i d il d i d 139 8 158 4 138 4 144 9 135 7 136 3FarmGrains and oilseeds index 139.8 158.4 138.4 144.9 135.7 136.3Total crops index 123.3 135.0 132.9 131.5 123.7 125.7Total crops index 123.3 135.0 132.9 131.5 123.7 125.7Livestock slaughterings index 110.4 110.2 116.1 127.7 137.1 127.9Livestock slaughterings index 110.4 110.2 116.1 127.7 137.1 127.9Total livestock index 100 7 100 9 105 0 111 4 118 2 112 5Total livestock index 100.7 100.9 105.0 111.4 118.2 112.5

l fTotal farm sector index 112.9 118.6 119.6 122.1 121.7 119.5Forestry aHardwood index 113 9 94 1 89 0 107 9 123 7 124 2Forestry aHardwood index 113.9 94.1 89.0 107.9 123.7 124.2S ft d i d 136 0 126 6 123 0 130 3 134 8 135 8Softwood index 136.0 126.6 123.0 130.3 134.8 135.8Total forestry index 125.4 111.1 106.7 119.6 129.5 130.2Total forestry index 125.4 111.1 106.7 119.6 129.5 130.2a Volume of logs harvested excluding firewood. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.a Volume of logs harvested excluding firewood. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: ABARE revised the method for calculating production indexes in October 1999 The indexes for the different groupsNote: ABARE revised the method for calculating production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups f d l l d h d h b h ’ d l d h f fof commodities are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. g g y

Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Sectors


TABLE 6 Employment ab Australia

STATISTICS

6 Employment Australia b A t li6EmploymentAustraliaabAustraliap y2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–152009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15

’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000Agriculture, forestry and fishingAgriculture 308 294 277 261 270 275Agriculture, forestry and fishingAgriculture 308 294 277 261 270 275Forestry and logging 7 5 8 6 6 5Forestry and logging 7 5 8 6 6 5Commercial fishing c 12 12 11 9 9 14Commercial fishing c 12 12 11 9 9 14Support services 23 23 23 22 24 21Support services 23 23 23 22 24 21Total 349 334 319 299 309 315Total 349 334 319 299 309 315Mining 171 203 247 265 266 226Mining 171 203 247 265 266 226M f t iManufacturing Food beverage and tobacco product 220 220 219 215 223 228Manufacturing Food, beverage and tobacco product 220 220 219 215 223 228

l l h fTextiles, clothing, footwearand leather 46 44 39 40 37 37

Textiles, clothing, footwear and leather 46 44 39 40 37 37Wood and paper product 63 56 54 52 61 56Wood and paper product 63 56 54 52 61 56Printing publishingPrinting, publishing

and recorded media 52 55 41 47 41 43 and recorded media 52 55 41 47 41 43Petroleum coalPetroleum, coal

and chemical product 87 84 88 90 85 91,

and chemical product 87 84 88 90 85 91N t lli i l d t 36 36 37 35 35 29Non‐metallic mineral product 36 36 37 35 35 29Non metallic mineral productMetal product 143 143 144 127 138 127Metal product 143 143 144 127 138 127h f iOther manufacturing 339 332 318 328 307 303Other manufacturing 339 332 318 328 307 303

Total manufacturing 987 970 938 934 927 914Total manufacturing 987 970 938 934 927 914Other industries 9 334 9 601 9 741 9 882 9 946 10 199Other industries 9 334 9 601 9 741 9 882 9 946 10 199Total 10 841 11 108 11 245 11 380 11 448 11 655Total 10 841 11 108 11 245 11 380 11 448 11 655a Average employment over four quarters. b ANZSIC 2006. c Includes aquaculture, fishing, hunting and trapping.a Average employment over four quarters. b ANZSIC 2006. c Includes aquaculture, fishing, hunting and trapping.Note: Australian Bureau of Statistics advises caution using employment statistics at the ANZSIC subdivision and groupNote: Australian Bureau of Statistics advises caution using employment statistics at the ANZSIC subdivision and group levels because estimates may be subject to sampling variability and standard errors too high for most practical levels because estimates may be subject to sampling variability and standard errors too high for most practical purposespurposes. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour force, Australia, cat. no. 6291.0.55.003, CanberraSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour force, Australia, cat. no. 6291.0.55.003, Canberra

TABLE 7 All banks lending to business a Australia

STATISTICS

7 ll b k l d b7AllbankslendingtobusinessaAustralia7AllbankslendingtobusinessaAustralia2013–14 2014–15

Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun2013 14 2014 15

Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun$b $b $b $b $b $b $b $b$b $b $b $b $b $b $b $b

A i l f d fi hiAgriculture, forestry and fishing 60.0 58.3 58.5 60.7 62.1 60.9 61.3 64.9g , y gMining 24.1 28.2 29.1 31.4 34.1 37.0 36.5 38.1Mining 24.1 28.2 29.1 31.4 34.1 37.0 36.5 38.1Manufacturing 38 7 38 1 41 9 43 2 39 8 40 0 42 8 46 9Manufacturing 38.7 38.1 41.9 43.2 39.8 40.0 42.8 46.9C t ti 27 8 27 7 28 4 28 5 28 6 29 0 30 4 30 3Construction 27.8 27.7 28.4 28.5 28.6 29.0 30.4 30.3Wholesale and retail trade,

transport and storage 104.1 104.7 106.9 103.4 104.6 107.5 109.0 108.9Wholesale and retail trade, transport and storage 104.1 104.7 106.9 103.4 104.6 107.5 109.0 108.9Finance and insurance 112 3 122 8 124 8 131 2 135 0 133 2 132 8 136 9Finance and insurance 112.3 122.8 124.8 131.2 135.0 133.2 132.8 136.9hOther 352.8 354.5 357.8 371.0 377.4 381.6 392.1 393.9

Total 719.8 734.4 747.2 769.5 781.6 789.2 804.7 820.0Total 719.8 734.4 747.2 769.5 781.6 789.2 804.7 820.0a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstandinga Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.S R B k f A t li B k l di t b i l t d t ti ti B ll ti St ti ti l T bl D8Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank lending to business–selected statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8

Employment, banks


TABLE 8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions Australia

STATISTICS

8 l d b d f l8RuralindebtednesstofinancialinstitutionsAustralia8RuralindebtednesstofinancialinstitutionsAustralia2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–152009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mRural debtAll b kRural debtAll banks a 58 097 60 184 59 749 61 778 62 402 64 932Other government agencies b 1 811 1 871 2 076 2 236 2 364 771Other government agencies b 1 811 1 871 2 076 2 236 2 364 771Pastoral and otherfi iPastoral and other finance companies 2 029 2 010 1 801 1 569 1 486 1 464Large finance institutional debt c 61 937 64 065 63 626 65 583 66 251 67 167g 61 937 64 065 63 626 65 583 66 251 67 167DepositsFarm management deposits 2 784 3 216 3 532 3 721 4 139 4 604DepositsFarm management deposits 2 784 3 216 3 532 3 721 4 139 4 604a Derived from all banks lending to agriculture, fishing and forestry. b Includes the government agency business of state g g , g y g g ybanks and advances made under War Service Land Settlement. c Sum of rural debt.banks and advances made under War Service Land Settlement. c Sum of rural debt.Sources: ABARES; Department of Agriculture and Water Resources Canberra; Reserve Bank of Australia Estimated ruralSources: ABARES; Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, Canberra; Reserve Bank of Australia, Estimated rural d bt t ifi d l d B ll ti St ti ti l T bl D9debt to specified lenders, Bulletin Statistical Table D9

TABLE 9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities

STATISTICS

9 l ld d f l d d9Annualworldindicatorpricesofselectedcommodities9Annualworldindicatorpricesofselectedcommoditiesunit 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 funit 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 s 2015 16 f

WorldWorldCropsWhCropsWheat a US$/t 317 299 348 317 266 215US$/t 317 299 348 317 266 215Corn b US$/t 254 281 312 219 174 169Corn b US$/t 254 281 312 219 174 169Rice c US$/t 518 590 565 429 419 364Rice c US$/t 518 590 565 429 419 364S b d $/Soybeans d US$/t 493 506 597 547 418 370$/Cotton e USc/lb 164 100 88 91 71 71Cotton e USc/lb 164 100 88 91 71 71Sugar g USc/lb 28 23 18 17 13 13Sugar g USc/lb 28 23 18 17 13 13Livestock products

fLivestock productsBeef h USc/kg 391 433 439 439 552 465USc/kg 391 433 439 439 552 465Wool i Ac/kg 1 132 1 203 1 035 1 070 1 102 1 210Wool i Ac/kg 1 132 1 203 1 035 1 070 1 102 1 210Butter j US$/t 4 683 3 883 3 727 4 498 3 483 3 350Butter j US$/t 4 683 3 883 3 727 4 498 3 483 3 350Ch j $Cheese j US$/t 4 221 4 258 4 150 4 817 3 921 3 400$/Skim milk powder j US$/t 3 392 3 233 3 731 4 513 2 592 2 200Skim milk powder j US$/t 3 392 3 233 3 731 4 513 2 592 2 200a US no 2 hard red winter wheat fob Gulf b US no 2 yellow corn fob Gulf c USDA nominal quote for Thai whitea US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf. b US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf. c USDA nominal quote for Thai white i 100 t G d B f b B k k (A t J l b i ) d US b f b G lf C tl k ‘A’ i drice, 100 per cent, Grade B, fob, Bangkok (August–July basis). d US no. soybeans, fob Gulf. e Cotlook ‘A’ index. f ABARES forecast. g Nearby futures price (October–September basis), Intercontinental Exchange, New York no. 11 f ABARES forecast. g Nearby futures price (October September basis), Intercontinental Exchange, New York no. 11 contract. h Cow 90CL US cif price. i Australian Wool Exchange eastern market indicator. j Average of traded pricescontract. h Cow 90CL US cif price. i Australian Wool Exchange eastern market indicator. j Average of traded prices (excluding subsidised sales) s ABARES estimate(excluding subsidised sales). s ABARES estimate.S ABARES A t li B f St ti ti A t li W l E h C tl k Ltd D i A t liSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Wool Exchange; Cotlook Ltd; Dairy Australia; Intercontinental Exchange; International Grains Council; Meat & Livestock Australia; New York Board of Trade; Intercontinental Exchange; International Grains Council; Meat & Livestock Australia; New York Board of Trade; United States Department of AgricultureUnited States Department of Agriculture

Farm debt, world prices


TABLE 10 Gross unit values of farm products a

STATISTICS

unit 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f

Barley $/t 216 210 276 267 296 294Corn (maize) $/t 259 251 238 297 314 322Grain sorghum $/t 213 189 252 300 307 279Oats $/t 196 202 236 213 236 254Rice $/t 240 270 260 340 412 439Triticale $/t 184 176 249 258 242 231Wheat $/t 257 227 313 316 308 301

Canola $/t 544 513 548 555 483 525Soybeans c $/t 501 510 468 538 511 536Sunflower seed c $/t 567 551 570 660 653 653

Chickpeas $/t 404 457 394 352 577 595Field peas $/t 266 295 406 419 413 540Lupins $/t 268 232 340 345 292 331

Cotton lint d c/kg 377 225 199 229 199 231Sugar cane (cut for crushing) $/t 38 43 41 40 36 36Wine grapes $/t 413 458 499 441 463 470

Beef cattle c/kg 336 337 318 304 378 524Lambs c/kg 519 509 371 410 459 522Pigs c/kg 269 266 262 300 312 333Poultry c/kg 197 194 205 209 211 213

Wool c/kg 623 666 568 604 609 669Milk c/L 43 42 40 50 49 48

10Grossunitvaluesoffarmproductsa

a Average gross unit value across all grades in principal markets, unless otherwise indicated. Includes the cost of containers, commission and other expenses incurred in getting the commodities to their principal markets. These expenses are significant. b Average unit gross value relates to returns received from crops harvested in that year, regardless of when sales take place, unless otherwise indicated. c Price paid by crusher. d Australian base price for sales in the financial year indicated. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Crops bGrains

Oilseeds

Pulses

Industrial crops

Livestock

Livestock products

Gross unit values


World

TABLE 11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities a

STATISTICS

unit 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f

production Mt 653 695 655 714 723 727 consumption Mt 657 697 676 696 710 720 closing stocks Mt 193 192 171 189 202 210 exports bc Mt 126 145 141 156 153 151

production Mt 1 099 1 158 1 138 1 282 1 296 1 270 consumption Mt 1 129 1 137 1 142 1 230 1 261 1 265 closing stocks Mt 165 167 169 212 243 247 exports b Mt 116 147 123 164 180 163

production d Mt 450 467 473 478 480 475 consumption d Mt 445 459 469 479 485 488 closing stocks d Mt 101 109 113 112 106 93 exports be Mt 36 39 38 43 43 40

production Mt 461 447 475 505 536 529 consumption Mt 446 466 469 494 516 519 closing stocks Mt 86 67 68 78 96 106 exports Mt 108 111 118 133 147 147





continued ...

Cotton

Sugar

Farm

Oilseeds and vegetable oils

Industrial crops

Wheat

Coarse grains

Rice

Oilseeds

Vegetable oils

11Worldproduction,consumption,stocksandtradeforselectedcommodities

Vegetable protein meals

Grains


World

TABLE 11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities a continued

STATISTICS

unit 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f

production Mt 262 268 272 276 272 275 consumption Mt 258 263 268 271 267 269 closing stocks Mt 2.3 3.0 3.0 3.2 2.7 2.9 exports b Mt 26.1 27.2 28.2 29.1 28.2 29.5

production kt 1 117 1 133 1 159 1 131 1 132 1 132 consumption ej kt 1 125 1 130 1 110 1 105 1 127 1 130 closing stocks k kt 45 24 25 35 35 30 exports l kt 502 447 485 496 490 480

production kt 8 584 8 914 9 150 9 529 9 693 9 700 consumption kt 8 105 8 431 8 667 8 961 9 167 9 400 closing stocks kt 213 247 231 256 260 290 exports kt 724 762 815 873 825 830

production kt 3 675 3 983 3 955 4 380 4 495 4 500 consumption kt 3 192 3 447 3 483 3 607 3 672 3 800 closing stocks kt 452 431 386 451 408 420 exports kt 1 529 1 627 1 663 1 878 1 976 2 000

11Worldproduction,consumption,stocksandtradeforselectedcommodities

a Some figures are not based on precise or complete analyses. b Excludes intra‐EU trade. c Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. d Milled equivalent. e On a calendar year basis, e.g. 2011–12 = 2012. f ABARES forecast. g Beef and veal, mutton, lamb, goat, pig and poultry meat. h Selected countries. i Clean equivalent. j Virgin wool at the spinning stage in 65 countries. k Held by marketing bodies and on‐farm in five major exporting countries. l Five major exporting countries.m Non‐fat dry milk. s ABARES estimate.Sources: ABARES; Argentine Wool Federation; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Capewools South Africa; Commonwealth Secretariat; Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, Canberra; Economic Commission for Europe; Fearnleys; Food and Agriculture Organization; International Grains Council; International Sugar Organization; International Wool Textile Organisation; Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (Japan); New Zealand Wool Board; Poimena Analysis, Melbourne; United States Department of Agriculture; Uruguayan Association of Wool Exporters

Livestock products Meat egh

Wool i

Butter eh

Skim milk powder ehm


Australian production

TABLE 12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia

STATISTICS

12 Agricultural fisheries and forestry commodity production A l12Agricultural,fisheriesandforestrycommodityproductionAustraliaunit 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 funit 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f

CropsCropsGrainsB l k 7 995 8 221 7 472 9 174 8 014 8 182GrainsBarley kt 7 995 8 221 7 472 9 174 8 014 8 182

( )Corn (maize) kt 357 451 506 390 389 414Grain sorghum kt 1 935 2 239 2 229 1 282 2 104 2 214gOats kt 1 128 1 262 1 121 1 255 1 087 1 221OatsRice kt 723 919 1 161 819 724 305Rice kt 723 919 1 161 819 724 305Triticale kt 355 285 171 126 225 192Triticale kt 355 285 171 126 225 192Wheat kt 27 410 29 905 22 855 25 303 23 666 23 982Wheat kt 27 410 29 905 22 855 25 303 23 666 23 982OilseedsCanola kt 2 359 3 427 4 142 3 832 3 464 2 985OilseedsCanola kt 2 359 3 427 4 142 3 832 3 464 2 985Cottonseed kt 1 269 1 732 1 439 1 252 714 792Cottonseed kt 1 269 1 732 1 439 1 252 714 792S b kt 30 52 70 32 46 57Soybeans kt 30 52 70 32 46 57S fl d kSunflower seed kt 43 28 38 18 19 27Other oilseeds a kt 24 39 42 27 19 23PulsesChickpeas kt 513 673 813 629 555 979Chickpeas kt 513 673 813 629 555 979Field peas kt 395 342 320 342 290 225Field peas kt 395 342 320 342 290 225Lupins kt 808 982 459 626 549 661Lupins kt 808 982 459 626 549 661Total grains oilseeds and pulses b kt 46 118 51 164 43 439 45 726 42 430 42 954Total grains, oilseeds and pulses b kt 46 118 51 164 43 439 45 726 42 430 42 954Industrial cropsCotton lint kt 926 1 225 1 017 885 505 560Industrial cropsCotton lint kt 926 1 225 1 017 885 505 560Sugar cane (cut for crushing) kt 27 443 27 943 30 400 30 500 32 100 33 101Sugar cane (cut for crushing) kt 27 443 27 943 30 400 30 500 32 100 33 101S (t t l) k 3 610 3 683 4 300 4 364 4 572 4 800Sugar (tonnes actual) kt 3 610 3 683 4 300 4 364 4 572 4 800WiWine grapes kt 1 598 1 582 1 642 1 438 1 608 1 566HorticultureFruitApples kt 300 289 289 267 257 250Apples kt 300 289 289 267 257 250Bananas kt 203 286 330 254 265 273Bananas kt 203 286 330 254 265 273Oranges kt 291 390 401 350 380 400Oranges kt 291 390 401 350 380 400VegetablesCarrots kt 225 319 272 243 297 304VegetablesCarrots kt 225 319 272 243 297 304Onions kt 331 347 302 256 248 255Onions kt 331 347 302 256 248 255P t t k 1 128 1 288 1 273 1 171 1 229 1 253Potatoes kt 1 128 1 288 1 273 1 171 1 229 1 253Tomatoes kt 302 372 456 326 400 380LivestockSlaughteringsCattle and calves ’000 8 097 7 873 8 457 9 473 10 103 9 000

g gCattle and calves 000 8 097 7 873 8 457 9 473 10 103 9 000Lambs ’000 17 880 18 879 21 122 21 899 22 867 22 178Lambs 000 17 880 18 879 21 122 21 899 22 867 22 178Sheep ’000 5 341 5 175 8 192 10 066 9 022 8 032Sheep 000 5 341 5 175 8 192 10 066 9 022 8 032Pigs ’000 4 643 4 733 4 745 4 778 4 924 5 085Pigs ’000 4 643 4 733 4 745 4 778 4 924 5 085Live exportsCattle exported live c ’000 805 683 634 1 133 1 379 1 215Live exportsCattle exported live c ’000 805 683 634 1 133 1 379 1 215Sheep exported live d ’000 2 916 2 562 2 000 2 020 2 180 2 075Sheep exported live d ’000 2 916 2 562 2 000 2 020 2 180 2 075M t d dMeat producedBeef and veal e kt 2 133 2 115 2 245 2 464 2 662 2 425Lamb e kt 391 419 457 474 507 486Lamb eMutton e kt 123 120 183 228 214 189Mutton e kt 123 120 183 228 214 189Chicken meat e kt 1 015 1 030 1 046 1 084 1 116 1 141Chicken meat e kt 1 015 1 030 1 046 1 084 1 116 1 141Pig meat kt 342 351 356 360 371 385Pig meat kt 342 351 356 360 371 385Total kt 4 005 4 034 4 287 4 610 4 869 4 626Total kt 4 005 4 034 4 287 4 610 4 869 4 626

continued ...continued ...


Australian production

TABLE 12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia continued

STATISTICS

12Agricultural,fisheriesandforestrycommodityproductionAustraliacontinuedunit 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f

Wool g kt 429 411 435 419 428 417Milk h ML 9 180 9 574 9 317 9 372 9 732 9 750Butter i kt 122 120 118 116 119 122Cheese kt 339 347 338 311 344 350Casein kt 5 5 5 4 0 0Skim milk powder kt 222 230 224 211 234 240Whole milk powder kt 151 140 109 126 99 90Buttermilk powder kt 12 11 11 11 12 12

Hardwood ’000 m3 11 551 9 548 9 029 10 940 12 548 12 596Softwood ’000 m3 14 981 13 949 13 551 14 358 14 853 14 958Total ’000 m3 26 532 23 497 22 580 25 298 27 401 27 554

Tuna kt 9.1 10.1 10.6 10.7 12.4 12.4Salmonids l kt 36.8 44.2 43.0 41.8 48.4 52.8Other fish kt 112.9 113.1 105.6 100.7 109.7 108.6Prawns kt 27.2 22.5 21.1 24.9 24.6 26.3Rock lobster m kt 9.9 9.1 10.5 10.4 10.2 10.3Abalone n kt 5.2 5.1 5.3 4.8 4.9 4.6Scallops kt 7.0 3.6 6.8 4.4 5.4 5.5Oysters kt 13.9 12.6 12.5 11.4 11.7 12.1Other molluscs kt 6.6 7.9 7.9 5.9 7.4 7.6Other crustaceans kt 6.3 5.5 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.4

Livestock products

Forestry products j

Fisheries k

a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Total includes components not listed separately. c Includes all bovine for feeder/slaughter, breeding and dairy purposes. d Includes animals for breeding. e In carcase weight and includes carcase equivalent of canned meats. f ABARES forecast. g Greasy equivalent of shorn wool (includes crutching), dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. h Includes the whole milk equivalent of farm cream intake. i Includes the butter equivalent of butter oil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. j Excludes logs harvested for firewood. k Liveweight. l Includes salmon and trout production. m Includes Queensland bugs. n Excludes Victorian aquaculture production for 2009–10 and 2010–11. s ABARES estimate.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Fisheries Management Authority; Dairy Australia; Department of Fisheries, Western Australia; Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Tasmania; Fisheries Queensland, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Fisheries Victoria, Department of Primary Industries; Industry & Investment New South Wales; Northern Territory Department of Regional Development, Primary Industry, Fisheries and Resources; Primary Industries and Regions, Fisheries, South Australia; Pulse Australia; Raw Cotton Marketing Advisory Committee; South Australian Research and Development Institute; state and territory forest services; various Australian forestry industries


Value of production

TABLE 13 Gross value of farm, fisheries and forestry production Australia

STATISTICS

2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f$m $m $m $m $m $m

Barley 1 729 1 723 2 063 2 453 2 373 2 406Corn (maize) 92 113 120 116 122 133Grain sorghum 412 423 562 384 647 618Oats 221 255 265 268 256 310Rice 174 248 302 279 298 134Triticale 65 50 43 32 55 44Wheat 7 052 6 775 7 154 7 998 7 288 7 221

Canola 1 283 1 759 2 270 2 129 1 672 1 567Soybeans 15 27 33 17 24 31Sunflower seed 24 16 22 12 12 18Other oilseeds a 24 44 33 22 15 19

Chickpeas 207 308 320 222 320 582Field peas 105 101 130 143 120 121Lupins 216 228 156 216 160 219Total grains, oilseeds and pulses b 12 132 12 471 13 919 14 791 13 895 13 890

Cotton lint and cottonseed c 2 087 2 954 2 174 2 002 1 089 1 285Sugar cane (cut for crushing) 1 036 1 214 1 236 1 226 1 146 1 192Wine grapes 712 725 858 672 745 736Total industrial crops 3 834 4 893 4 268 3 900 2 979 3 213

Table and dried grapes 302 316 303 331 295 338Fruit and nuts (excl. grapes) 3 013 3 050 3 662 3 187 3 435 3 607Vegetables 3 338 3 339 3 770 3 510 3 755 3 905Other horticulture 1 606 1 272 1 285 1 247 1 245 1 259Total horticulture 8 259 7 976 9 020 8 274 8 730 9 108Other crops nei d 1 105 898 1 165 1 405 1 345 1 345Total crops 25 330 26 238 28 372 28 370 26 949 27 556

continued ...

Horticulture

13Grossvalueoffarm,fisheriesandforestryproductionAustralia

CropsGrains

Oilseeds

Pulses

Industrial crops


Value of production

TABLE 13 Gross value of farm, fisheries and forestry production Australia continued

2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f$m $m $m $m $m $m

Cattle and calves e 7 164 7 134 7 136 7 495 10 056 12 712Sheep g 484 419 329 513 629 635Lambs gh 2 029 2 136 1 696 1 943 2 324 2 540Pigs 919 934 934 1 081 1 156 1 283Poultry 2 077 2 078 2 214 2 344 2 430 2 510

Cattle exported live i 660 651 589 1 049 1 356 1 616Sheep exported live j 348 345 194 185 245 260Total livestock k 13 795 13 797 13 212 14 765 18 396 21 765

Wool l 2 673 2 734 2 472 2 530 2 606 2 787Milk m 3 932 3 986 3 687 4 729 4 720 4 631Eggs 572 583 653 710 720 730Honey and beeswax 66 79 88 88 101 107Total livestock products 7 243 7 383 6 900 8 057 8 146 8 255Total farm 46 369 47 418 48 484 51 193 53 491 57 577

Hardwood 896 745 680 819 942 955Softwood 959 879 836 970 1 013 1 030Total 1 856 1 624 1 516 1 789 1 955 1 985

Tuna 139 172 176 147 161 173Salmonids q 427 514 497 543 622 653Other fish r 432 456 441 401 438 437Prawns 308 266 277 337 357 412Rock lobster t 392 394 449 586 694 755Abalone u 178 170 190 165 182 211Scallops 22 8 15 9 13 13Oysters 97 90 95 90 93 98Pearls v 120 102 79 61 92 96Other molluscs w 32 33 59 48 40 42Other crustaceans 66 67 64 63 67 68Total fish 2 248 2 305 2 378 2 460 2 796 2 994a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Includes Total includes components not listed separately. c Value delivered to gin. d Mainly fodder crops. e Includes dairy cattle slaughtered. f ABARES forecast. g Excludes skin values. h Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kilograms. i Includes all bovine for feeder/slaughter, breeding and dairy purposes. j Includes animals exported for breeding purposes. k Total livestock slaughterings includes livestock disposals. l Shorn, dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. m Milk intake by factories and valued at the farm gate. n Excludes logs harvested for firewood. o Value to fishers of product landed in Australia. q Includes salmon and trout production. r Includes an estimated value of aquaculture. s ABARES estimate. t Includes Queensland bugs. u Excludes Victorian aquaculture production for 2009–10 and 2010–11. v Northern Territory aquaculture production not included in 2012–13 due to confidentiality. w Also includes fish and aquaculture values not elsewhere included. nei Not elsewhere included.Note: The gross value of production is the value placed on recorded production at the wholesale prices realised in the marketplace. The point of measurement can vary between commodities. Generally the marketplace is the metropolitan market in each state and territory. However, where commodities are consumed locally or where they become raw material for a secondary industry, these points are presumed to be the marketplace. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Fisheries products o

13GrossvalueoffarmandfisheriesproductionAustraliacontinued

LivestockSlaughterings

Live exports

Livestock products

Forestry products n


Areas, stock

TABLE 14 Crop and forestry areas and livestock numbers Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f

Barley ’000 ha 3 681 3 718 3 644 3 814 3 836 3 996Corn (maize) ’000 ha 62 70 78 52 67 66Grain sorghum ’000 ha 633 659 647 532 651 701Oats ’000 ha 826 731 729 715 683 808Rice ’000 ha 76 103 113 75 71 31Triticale ’000 ha 187 145 99 80 126 116Wheat ’000 ha 13 502 13 902 12 979 12 613 13 810 13 793

Canola ’000 ha 2 078 2 461 3 272 2 721 2 712 2 332Soybeans ’000 ha 17 33 48 25 24 28Sunflower seed ’000 ha 37 25 33 17 16 22Other oilseeds a ’000 ha 18 26 32 22 13 14

Chickpeas ’000 ha 653 456 574 508 425 662Field peas ’000 ha 318 249 281 245 237 235Lupins ’000 ha 756 689 450 387 443 487Total grains, oilseeds and pulses b ’000 ha 23 937 24 275 23 856 22 584 23 729 24 150

Cotton ’000 ha 590 600 443 392 197 300Sugar cane c ’000 ha 314 368 371 375 381 393Winegrapes d ’000 ha 154 145 133 127 132 135

Beef cattle million 25.94 25.69 26.46 26.30 24.17 23.86Dairy cattle million 2.57 2.73 2.83 2.81 2.85 2.86 Milking herd g million 1.59 1.70 1.69 1.65 1.74 1.73Total cattle million 28.51 28.42 29.29 29.10 27.02 26.72Sheep million 73.10 74.72 75.55 72.61 70.30 71.20Pigs million 2.29 2.14 2.10 2.31 2.37 2.46

Hardwood ’000 ha 980 977 976 963 na naSoftwood ’000 ha 1 025 1 024 1 024 1 024 na naTotal plantation area h ’000 ha 2 017 2 013 2 013 2 000 na na

Industrial crops

Livestock numbers e

Forestry plantation area

14CropandforestryareasandlivestocknumbersAustralia

a Linseed and safflower seed. b Total includes components not listed separately. c Cut for crushing. d This figure is for grapes for wine only. e At 30 June. f ABARES forecast. g Cows in milk and dry. h Includes areas where plantation type is unknown. s ABARES estimate. na Not available.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia

Crop areasGrains

Oilseeds

Pulses


Yields

TABLE 15 Average farm yields Australia

STATISTICS

15 f ld15AveragefarmyieldsAustralia15AveragefarmyieldsAustraliaunit 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 funit 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 s 2015 16 f

CropsCropsGrainsGrainsBarley t/ha 2.17 2.21 2.05 2.41 2.09 2.05Barley t/haCorn (maize) t/ha 5.74 6.47 6.49 7.45 5.77 6.30Corn (maize) t/ha 5.74 6.47 6.49 7.45 5.77 6.30Grain sorghum t/ha 3 06 3 40 3 45 2 41 3 23 3 16Grain sorghum t/ha 3.06 3.40 3.45 2.41 3.23 3.16

/ 1 37 1 73 1 54 1 76 1 59 1 51Oats t/ha 1.37 1.73 1.54 1.76 1.59 1.51/Rice t/ha 9.54 8.91 10.28 10.94 10.27 9.95Rice t/ha 9.54 8.91 10.28 10.94 10.27 9.95Triticale t/ha 1 90 1 97 1 73 1 57 1 79 1 65Triticale t/ha 1.90 1.97 1.73 1.57 1.79 1.65Wh t t/h 2 03 2 15 1 76 2 01 1 71 1 74Wheat t/ha 2.03 2.15 1.76 2.01 1.71 1.74OilseedsCanola t/ha 1.14 1.39 1.27 1.41 1.28 1.28OilseedsCanola t/ha 1.14 1.39 1.27 1.41 1.28 1.28Soybeans t/ha 1 71 1 57 1 46 1 27 1 92 2 08Soybeans t/ha 1.71 1.57 1.46 1.27 1.92 2.08Sunflower seed t/ha 1.14 1.14 1.16 1.05 1.16 1.24/PulsesChickpeas t/ha 0 79 1 48 1 42 1 24 1 31 1 48PulsesChickpeas t/ha 0.79 1.48 1.42 1.24 1.31 1.48Fi ld /h 1 24 1 38 1 14 1 40 1 23 0 95Field peas t/ha 1.24 1.38 1.14 1.40 1.23 0.95pLupins t/ha 1.07 1.42 1.02 1.62 1.24 1.36Lupins t/ha 1.07 1.42 1.02 1.62 1.24 1.36Industrial cropsCotton (lint) t/ha 1 57 2 04 2 30 2 26 2 56 1 87Industrial cropsCotton (lint) t/ha 1.57 2.04 2.30 2.26 2.56 1.87Sugar cane (for crushing) t/ha 87 76 82 81 84 84Sugar cane (for crushing) /Winegrapes t/ha 10.4 10.9 12.3 11.3 12.1 11.6Winegrapes t/ha 10.4 10.9 12.3 11.3 12.1 11.6Livestock products

l k / h 4 34 4 19 4 41 4 37 4 50 4 45Livestock productsWool a kg/sheep 4.34 4.19 4.41 4.37 4.50 4.45Whole milk L/cow 5 777 5 632 5 519 5 691 5 593 5 636Whole milk L/cow 5 777 5 632 5 519 5 691 5 593 5 636a Shorn (including lambs) f ABARES forecast s ABARES estimatea Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Sources ABARES Australian Bureau of Statistics Pulse AustraliaSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia


Export volumes

TABLE 16 Volume of agricultural and fisheries exports Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f

Barley a kt 4 625 6 568 5 165 7 124 6 208 5 755Corn (maize) kt 12 68 134 83 58 68Grain sorghum kt 553 1 112 1 291 701 1 205 968Oats kt 127 163 200 238 301 388Rice kt 172 537 584 544 469 245Wheat b kt 18 431 23 026 21 265 18 336 16 571 16 948

Canola kt 1 471 2 323 3 488 3 194 2 445 2 105Cottonseed kt 268 654 754 464 167 112Other oilseeds c kt 7 6 10 14 6 7

Chickpeas kt 409 653 852 562 674 816Peas d kt 254 248 208 155 179 147Lupins kt 289 316 416 274 306 265Other pulses kt 485 775 691 795 529 767Total grains, oilseeds and pulses kt 27 104 36 448 35 058 32 483 29 118 28 590

Raw cotton e kt 505 994 1 305 1 036 681 506Sugar kt 2 735 2 572 3 004 3 052 3 253 3 481Wine ML 748 737 717 717 745 720

Beef and veal g kt 937 948 1 014 1 184 1 349 1 190Live feeder/slaughter cattle h ’000 728 579 513 1 006 1 295 1 100Live breeder cattle i ’000 77 105 121 127 83 115Lamb g kt 157 174 201 226 242 234Live sheep j ’000 2 916 2 562 2 000 2 020 2 180 2 075Mutton g kt 86 89 144 183 169 151Pig meat g kt 31 29 26 27 27 28Poultry meat g kt 31 38 32 37 36 34

Greasy ks kt 335 301 316 295 325 310Semi‐processed kt (gr eq) 44 37 34 35 41 40Skins kt (gr eq) 65 67 86 97 92 90Total ks kt (gr eq) 444 405 437 428 459 440

Butter l kt 56 49 54 49 44 40Cheese kt 163 161 174 151 159 160Casein kt 5 4 4 3 0 0Skim milk powder kt 155 141 147 143 186 190Whole milk powder kt 108 102 87 94 69 60

continued ...

Oilseeds

Pulses

Meat and live animals

Wool

Dairy products

16VolumeofagriculturalandfisheriesexportsAustraliaFarm

Industrial crops

CropsGrains


Export volumes

TABLE 16 Volume of agricultural and fisheries exports Australia continued

STATISTICS

16 l f l l d f h16VolumeofagriculturalandfisheriesexportsAustraliacontinued16VolumeofagriculturalandfisheriesexportsAustraliacontinuedunit 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 funit 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 s 2015 16 f

Fisheries productsT kt 7 8 8 9 8 9 11 0 12 1 11 8Fisheries productsTuna kt 7.8 8.9 8.9 11.0 12.1 11.8Salmonids kt 6.4 5.8 2.6 1.8 5.0 6.3Salmonids kt 6.4 5.8 2.6 1.8 5.0 6.3Other fish kt 7.7 6.5 5.5 4.9 5.8 6.4Other fish kt 7.7 6.5 5.5 4.9 5.8 6.4Prawns mFPrawns m Frozen kt 6.4 5.3 3.9 7.0 6.4 6.9Rock lobsterRock lobsterFresh chilled frozen

k d kt 7 0 6 9 7 8 8 0 8 2 8 7 Fresh, chilled, frozen or cooked kt 7.0 6.9 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.7AbaloneLive fresh or chilled kt 1 7 1 6 1 4 1 5 1 3 1 5Abalone Live, fresh or chilled kt 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.5Frozen or cooked kt 0 8 0 8 0 7 0 7 0 8 0 7 Frozen or cooked kt 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 Prepared or preserved kt 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6p pScallops n kt 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5Scallops n kt 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5a Includes the grain equivalent of malt b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour c Includes soybeans linseed sunflowera Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. c Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower

d ffl d d t E l d l d il d I l d fi ld d E l d tt t dseed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. d Includes field peas and cowpeas. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. f ABARES forecast. g In shipped weight. Fresh, chilled or frozen. h Includes buffalo. i Includes dairy cattle and buffalo. linters. f ABARES forecast. g In shipped weight. Fresh, chilled or frozen. h Includes buffalo. i Includes dairy cattle and buffalo. j Includes breeding stock. k Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels heldj Includes breeding stock. k Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas l Includes ghee dry butterfat butter concentrate and butter oil and dairy spreads all expressed as butteroverseas. l Includes ghee, dry butterfat, butter concentrate and butter oil, and dairy spreads, all expressed as butter.

E l d l f th d t I l d b d ll ABARES ti tm Excludes volume of other prawn products. n Includes crumbed scallops. s ABARES estimate.Note: Zero used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes.Note: Zero used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, Canberra; Department ofSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, Canberra; Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade; United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)Foreign Affairs and Trade; United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)


Export values

TABLE 17 Value of agricultural and fisheries exports (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

17 l f l l f h d f (f b)17Valueofagriculturalfisheriesandforestryexports(fob)Australia17Valueofagriculturalfisheriesandforestryexports(fob)Australia2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 s 2015 16 f

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mFarmCFarmCropspGrainsBarley a 1 295 1 875 1 626 2 199 2 137 1 824GrainsBarley a 1 295 1 875 1 626 2 199 2 137 1 824Corn (maize) 6 24 50 36 30 36Corn (maize) 6 24 50 36 30 36Grain sorghum 146 299 364 253 424 324Grain sorghum 146 299 364 253 424 324Oats 37 47 65 81 104 138Oats 37 47 65 81 104 138Rice 165 427 459 490 515 331Rice 165 427 459 490 515 331Wh t bWheat b 5 516 6 378 6 776 6 103 5 547 5 698OilseedsCanola 866 1 344 2 094 1 929 1 349 1 245OilseedsCanola 866 1 344 2 094 1 929 1 349 1 245C tt d 8 19 219 168 6Cottonseed 85 195 219 168 75 56Other oilseeds c 14 10 13 18 14 18 14 10 13 18 14 18PulsesChickpeas 213 384 533 297 414 646PulsesChickpeas 213 384 533 297 414 646P dPeas d 85 93 89 67 91 73Lupins 89 86 143 116 134 112Lupins 89 86 143 116 134 112Other pulses 311 436 418 539 510 533Other pulses 311 436 418 539 510 533

l i il d d lTotal grains, oilseeds and pulses 8 827 11 598 12 850 12 297 11 345 11 035g , pIndustrial cropsRaw cotton e 1 367 2 736 2 695 2 355 1 546 1 228Industrial cropsRaw cotton e 1 367 2 736 2 695 2 355 1 546 1 228S 1 436 1 556 1 437 1 384 1 336 1 444Sugar 1 436 1 556 1 437 1 384 1 336 1 444Wine 2 009 1 910 1 867 1 847 1 983 2 051Wine 2 009 1 910 1 867 1 847 1 983 2 051Total industrial crops 4 812 6 203 5 999 5 587 4 865 4 723Total industrial crops 4 812 6 203 5 999 5 587 4 865 4 723HorticultureF itHorticultureFruit 456 505 634 724 755 808Tree nuts 211 240 348 610 734 880Tree nuts 211 240 348 610 734 880Vegetables 296 276 260 270 293 303Vegetables 296 276 260 270 293 303Nursery 20 15 12 11 12 12Nursery 20 15 12 11 12 12h h lOther horticulture g 293 258 224 250 266 274g 293 258 224 250 266 274

Total horticulture 1 277 1 294 1 478 1 865 2 060 2 277Total horticulture 1 277 1 294 1 478 1 865 2 060 2 277Other crops and crop products 2 504 2 560 2 740 3 072 3 436 3 847Other crops and crop products 2 504 2 560 2 740 3 072 3 436 3 847T lTotal crops 17 420 21 654 23 067 22 821 21 706 21 882pMeat and live animalsBeef and veal 4 328 4 467 4 871 6 265 8 858 8 600Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 4 328 4 467 4 871 6 265 8 858 8 600Live feeder/slaughter cattle h 499 412 339 795 1 163 1 350Live feeder/slaughter cattle h 499 412 339 795 1 163 1 350Live breeder cattle i 161 239 251 255 192 266 161 239 251 255 192 266Lamb 1 026 1 060 1 086 1 468 1 696 1 714Lamb 1 026 1 060 1 086 1 468 1 696 1 714Live sheep j 348 345 194 185 245 260Live sheep j 348 345 194 185 245 260M ttMutton 404 362 480 758 778 761Pig meat 106 100 81 85 102 117Pig meat 106 100 81 85 102 117Poultry meat 38 45 43 50 56 59Poultry meat 38 45 43 50 56 59T t l t d li i lTotal meat and live animals 6 910 7 030 7 344 9 859 13 091 13 126Wool Greasy k 2 371 2 448 2 261 2 212 2 497 2 700Wool Greasy k 2 371 2 448 2 261 2 212 2 497 2 700S i d 251 242 209 238 282 311Semi‐processed 251 242 209 238 282 311kSkins 426 433 398 426 375 4406 33 398 6 3 5 0Total k 3 048 3 123 2 869 2 877 3 154 3 450Total k 3 048 3 123 2 869 2 877 3 154 3 450

continuedcontinued ...


Export values

TABLE 17 Value of agricultural and fisheries exports (fob) Australia continued

STATISTICS

17 l f l l d f h (f b)17Valueofagriculturalandfisheriesexports(fob)Australiacontinued17Valueofagriculturalandfisheriesexports(fob)Australiacontinued2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s 2015–16 f2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 s 2015 16 f

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mDairy productsDairy productsButter 252 201 180 243 198 149Butter 252 201 180 243 198 149Cheese 731 751 784 765 823 833Cheese 731 751 784 765 823 833Casein 53 48 46 42 10 10Casein 53 48 46 42 10 10k lk dSkim milk powder 504 474 467 708 682 640pWhole milk powder 402 378 312 532 294 231Whole milk powder 402 378 312 532 294 231Other dairy products 408 442 443 435 466 453Other dairy products 408 442 443 435 466 453T t l 2 349 2 295 2 232 2 725 2 473 2 316Total 2 349 2 295 2 232 2 725 2 473 2 316Other livestock and livestock products 2 190 2 287 2 512 2 876 3 194 3 244Other livestock and livestock products 2 190 2 287 2 512 2 876 3 194 3 244Total livestock exports 14 497 14 735 14 956 18 337 21 911 22 137Total livestock exports 14 497 14 735 14 956 18 337 21 911 22 137Total farm exports 31 917 36 389 38 023 41 158 43 617 44 019Total farm exports 31 917 36 389 38 023 41 158 43 617 44 019i h i dFisheries productsTuna 131 163 163 136 151 161

pTuna 131 163 163 136 151 161Salmonids 54 42 25 17 48 65Salmonids 54 42 25 17 48 65Oth fi h 101 85 70 72 72 72Other fish 101 85 70 72 72 72Prawns lFrozen 77 65 51 99 93 110Prawns l Frozen 77 65 51 99 93 110Rock lobsterRock lobster Fresh, chilled, frozen or cooked 368 387 447 590 691 819 Fresh, chilled, frozen or cookedAbaloneLive fresh or chilled 88 81 80 74 77 96Abalone Live, fresh or chilled 88 81 80 74 77 96F k d Frozen or cooked 59 57 55 56 60 65 Prepared or preserved 65 59 52 41 36 52 Prepared or preserved 65 59 52 41 36 52Scallops m 15 15 11 14 11 20Scallops m 15 15 11 14 11 20P l 241 207 152 144 111 127Pearls 241 207 152 144 111 127Other fisheries products 48 66 70 61 89 99Other fisheries products 8 66 0 6 89 99Total fisheries products 1 248 1 227 1 175 1 304 1 440 1 684Total fisheries products 1 248 1 227 1 175 1 304 1 440 1 684a Includes malt b Includes wheat flour c Includes soybeans linseed sunflower seed safflower seed and peanutsa Includes malt. b Includes wheat flour. c Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. E l d l d il d Fi ld d E l d d li f ABARES f O hExcludes meals and oils. d Field peas and cowpeas. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. f ABARES forecast. g Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. h Includes horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. h Includes buffalo. i Includes dairy cattle and buffalo. j Includes breeding stock. k On a balance of payments basis. Australian Bureaubuffalo. i Includes dairy cattle and buffalo. j Includes breeding stock. k On a balance of payments basis. Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas l Other prawn products included inof Statistics recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas. l Other prawn products included in h f h d l d b d llother fisheries products. m Includes crumbed scallops. s ABARES estimate.p p

Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, Canberra; United Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, Canberra; United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)


TABLE 18 Agricultural exports to China (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s$m $m $m $m $m $m

Barley a 280 311 454 494 1 080 1 399Grain sorghum 14 14 4 98 215 410Wheat b 189 144 457 357 484 323Other grains c 1 0 1 6 0 0Oilseeds 1 45 116 344 627 317Pulses 5 3 4 1 1 17Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 490 516 1 036 1 300 2 407 2 466

Raw cotton d 274 551 1 812 1 849 1 520 851Sugar 4 31 21 2 42 76Wine 144 178 209 241 202 269Total industrial crops 421 760 2 041 2 093 1 764 1 195

Fruit 6 8 10 28 37 64Tree nuts 8 6 11 36 37 39Vegetables 1 2 3 3 3 4Nursery 0 1 1 0 0 1Other horticulture e 4 3 4 4 4 5Total horticulture 20 20 29 71 82 113Other crops and crop products 7 8 22 30 31 46Total crops 938 1 305 3 128 3 493 4 284 3 820

Beef and veal 17 28 40 406 785 736Live breeder cattle g 102 102 133 125 180 149Lamb 34 63 73 108 184 152Mutton 13 12 14 102 209 137Other meat and live animals h 5 4 0 1 19 37Total meat and live animals 171 209 260 741 1 378 1 212

Greasy 1 460 1 864 1 925 1 844 1 713 1 986Semi‐processed 62 21 24 18 18 32Skins 257 351 369 337 378 336Total 1 779 2 235 2 319 2 200 2 109 2 354

Butter 5 4 7 6 7 11Cheese 23 30 37 44 74 72Casein 7 1 1 1 1 0Skim milk powder 22 37 50 35 108 59Whole milk powder 38 52 11 56 159 20Other dairy products 45 35 58 68 71 107Total dairy product exports 139 159 164 210 421 270Other livestock exports 501 558 614 635 778 833Total livestock exports 2 591 3 161 3 357 3 786 4 685 4 668Total agricultural exports 3 529 4 466 6 485 7 280 8 969 8 488a Includes malt. b Includes wheat flour. c Includes grains not separately listed. d Excludes cotton waste and linters. e Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. g Includes dairy cattle and buffalo. h Includes meat and other live animals not listed separately. s ABARES estimate.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, Canberra

18AgriculturalexportstoChina(fob)Australia

Dairy products

Farm

Industrial crops

Horticulture

Meat and live animals

Wool

CropsGrains

Agricultural exports


TABLE 19 Agricultural exports to Indonesia (fob) Australia19A i lt l t t I d i (f b)19AgriculturalexportstoIndonesia(fob)Australia2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mFarmFarmCropsCropsGrainsBarley a 13 9 10 7 6 5GrainsBarley a 13 9 10 7 6 5Wheat b 752 1 144 1 156 1 395 1 194 1 403Wheat b 752 1 144 1 156 1 395 1 194 1 403Other grains oilseedsOther grains, oilseedsand pulses c 3 15 14 12 28 14 and pulses c 3 15 14 12 28 14Total grains oilseeds and pulses 768 1 169 1 180 1 414 1 228 1 423Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 768 1 169 1 180 1 414 1 228 1 423Industrial cropsRaw cotton d 160 247 282 220 174 136Industrial cropsRaw cotton d 160 247 282 220 174 136Sugar 420 296 302 316 467 388Sugar 420 296 302 316 467 388Wine 3 4 4 5 3 4Wine 3 4 4 5 3 4Total industrial crops 582 547 588 540 644 528Total industrial crops 582 547 588 540 644 528HorticultureFruit 36 29 33 49 53 62HorticultureFruit 36 29 33 49 53 62Tree nuts 0 0 2 1 1 2Tree nuts 0 0 2 1 1 2Vegetables 13 14 11 12 11 6gNursery 0 0 0 0 0 0yOther horticulture e 1 2 3 2 3 4Total horticulture 50 45 49 65 68 75Other crops and crop products 13 15 17 24 26 28Total crops 1 413 1 775 1 835 2 043 1 968 2 053Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 169 169 156 132 245 233Li f d / l ht ttlLive feeder/slaughter cattle g 428 287 252 165 452 595Li b d ttl hLive breeder cattle h 13 3 2 9 9 5L b 5 6 9 8 4 7Lamb 5 6 9 8 4 7Mutton 1 1 1 2 1 4Mutton 1 1 1 2 1 4Other meat and live animals i 0 0 0 0 0 0Other meat and live animals i 0 0 0 0 0 0Total meat and live animals 615 466 421 316 712 844Total meat and live animals 615 466 421 316 712 844Wool 1 1 0 0 1 1Wool 1 1 0 0 1 1Dair prod ctsB tt 9 9 4 5 7 5Dairy productsButter 9 9 4 5 7 5Cheese 22 19 19 18 18 18Cheese 22 19 19 18 18 18Casein 10 5 7 9 10 0Casein 10 5 7 9 10 0Skim milk powder 49 80 72 68 126 164Skim milk powder 49 80 72 68 126 164Whole milk powder 29 40 34 18 37 8Whole milk powder 29 40 34 18 37 8Other dairy products 15 17 19 21 21 19Other dairy products 15 17 19 21 21 19Total dairy product exports 134 169 155 140 220 214Total dairy product exports 134 169 155 140 220 214Other livestock exports 114 101 113 146 147 142Other livestock exports 114 101 113 146 147 142Total livestock exports 865 737 689 603 1 079 1 201Total livestock exports 865 737 689 603 1 079 1 201Total agricultural exports 2 278 2 512 2 524 2 646 3 046 3 254Total agricultural exports 2 278 2 512 2 524 2 646 3 046 3 254a Includes malt b Includes wheat flour c Includes grains not separately listed oilseeds and pulses d Excludes cottona Includes malt. b Includes wheat flour. c Includes grains not separately listed, oilseeds and pulses. d Excludes cotton waste and linters e Other horticulture includes mainly coffee tea spices essential oils and other miscellaneouswaste and linters. e Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products g Includes buffalo h Includes dairy cattle and buffalo i Includes meat and other live animals nothorticultural products. g Includes buffalo. h Includes dairy cattle and buffalo. i Includes meat and other live animals not listed separately s ABARES estimatelisted separately. s ABARES estimate.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0 5 millionNote: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture and Water Resouces CanberraSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture and Water Resouces, Canberra



TABLE 20 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

20 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) A l20AgriculturalexportstoJapan(fob)Australia2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mFarmFarmGrainsBarleyGrainsBarley a 284 260 316 292 251 194G i hGrain sorghum 70 105 219 202 16 2Wheat bWheat b 299 408 395 392 322 305Oil dC lOilseedsCanola 109 41 47 72 113 175C tt dCottonseed 31 24 31 36 31 23Oth i d il dOther grains and oilseeds c 4 4 9 17 10 6Pulses 11 10 12 10 11 8Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 806 853 1 030 1 021 754 714Industrial cropsRaw cotton d 31 48 63 28 32 25Raw cotton dSugar 190 194 211 198 245 140gWine 43 44 45 42 41 44Total industrial crops 264 286 319 268 318 209pHorticultureFruit 61 70 59 63 61 59 61 70 59 63 61 59Tree nuts 17 16 20 23 19 23 17 16 20 23 19 23Vegetables 33 46 41 41 39 38g 33 46 41 41 39 38Nursery 4 4 3 3 2 2y 4 4 3 3 2 2Other horticulture e 5 7 6 4 9 8 5 7 6 4 9 8Total horticulture 120 142 129 133 130 130Total horticulture 120 142 129 133 130 130Other crops and crop products 47 54 47 50 40 45Other crops and crop products 47 54 47 50 40 45Total crops 1 237 1 335 1 524 1 472 1 242 1 098Total crops 1 237 1 335 1 524 1 472 1 242 1 098Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 1 682 1 667 1 549 1 439 1 446 1 922Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 1 682 1 667 1 549 1 439 1 446 1 922Live feeder/slaughter cattle g 15 16 20 15 15 14Live feeder/slaughter cattle g 15 16 20 15 15 14Lamb 52 60 63 54 76 88Lamb 52 60 63 54 76 88Mutton 24 26 24 17 29 27Mutton 24 26 24 17 29 27Other meat and live animals h 3 3 3 3 4 5Other meat and live animals h 3 3 3 3 4 5Total meat and live animals 1 776 1 772 1 658 1 528 1 570 2 056Total meat and live animals 1 776 1 772 1 658 1 528 1 570 2 056WoolGreasy 4 9 12 8 1Wool Greasy 4 9 12 8 1 Semi‐processed 12 23 26 21 10 14Semi‐processed 12 23 26 21 10 14Skins 1 1 2 1 2 2Skins 1 1 2 1 2 2Total 17 33 39 30 12 16Total 17 33 39 30 12 16Dairy productsB tt 2 6 9 4 2 4Dairy productsButter 2 6 9 4 2 4Ch 358 356 423 415 343 407Cheese 358 356 423 415 343 407C i 26 22 21 17 20 5Casein 26 22 21 17 20 5Ski ilk d 3 2 2 5 17 30Skim milk powder 3 2 2 5 17 30Wh l ilk d 0 0 1 0 0 0Whole milk powder 0 0 1 0 0 0O h d i d 46 38 45 66 38 33Other dairy products 46 38 45 66 38 33T l d i dTotal dairy product exports 436 423 500 507 420 480O h li kOther livestock exports 320 337 302 293 276 294

l li kTotal livestock exports 2 549 2 566 2 499 2 358 2 278 2 846T t l i lt l tTotal agricultural exports 3 786 3 901 4 023 3 830 3 521 3 944a Includes malt. b Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. c Includes grains and oilseeds not separately listed. d Excludes cotton waste and linters. e Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. g Excludes breeding stock and includes buffalo for feeder/slaughter purposes. p g g / g p ph Includes other meat and live animals not listed separately. s ABARES estimate.h Includes other meat and live animals not listed separately. s A AR S estimate.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, CanberraSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, Canberra




TABLE 21 Agricultural exports to the Republic of Korea (fob) Australia21A i lt l t t R bli f K (f b)21AgriculturalexportstoRepublicofKorea(fob)Australia2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 s

g p p ( )2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mFarmCFarmCrops

B lGrainsBarley a 54 75 94 87 116 118WhWheat b 219 368 628 449 310 354Corn (maize) 4 4 12 20 23 22OilseedsCottonseed 5 16 26 37 30 15Other grains and oilseeds c 2 1 0 2 6 2Pulses 70 51 36 74 57 64Pulses 70 51 36 74 57 64Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 353 514 797 668 541 575Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 353 514 797 668 541 575Industrial cropsRaw cotton d 62 58 120 119 130 82Industrial crops

62 58 120 119 130 82Sugar 685 424 521 475 309 458Sugar 685 424 521 475 309 458Wine 9 7 9 10 8 10Wine 9 7 9 10 8 10Total industrial crops 755 490 650 605 446 550Total industrial crops 755 490 650 605 446 550HorticultureFruit 4 4 5 7 6 10HorticultureFruit 4 4 5 7 6 10Tree nuts 1 1 3 2 4 11Tree nuts 1 1 3 2 4 11Vegetables 4 8 9 7 5 9Vegetables 4 8 9 7 5 9Other horticulture e 2 2 2 3 5 3Other horticulture e 2 2 2 3 5 3Total horticulture 10 15 19 19 19 32Total horticulture 10 15 19 19 19 32Other crops and crop products 114 119 117 131 144 135Other crops and crop products 114 119 117 131 144 135Total crops 1 232 1 138 1 583 1 423 1 151 1 293Total crops 1 232 1 138 1 583 1 423 1 151 1 293Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 535 656 572 641 844 1 016Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 535 656 572 641 844 1 016Lamb 10 13 15 14 24 32Lamb 10 13 15 14 24 32Mutton 4 5 4 4 6 7Mutton 4 5 4 4 6 7Other meat and live animals g 1 2 1 1 1 1Other meat and live animals g 1 2 1 1 1 1Total meat and live animals 549 676 592 659 875 1 056Total meat and live animals 549 676 592 659 875 1 056W l 41 36 43 44 61 81Wool 41 36 43 44 61 81D i d tDairy productsButter 13 16 9 7 6 10hCheese 28 37 31 30 26 32

Casein 3 2 2 2 1 0Skim milk powder 18 23 23 19 27 25Whole milk powder 3 6 7 2 3 2Other dairy products 19 25 29 17 19 14Total dairy product exports 84 109 103 77 82 83y p pOther livestock exports 93 108 125 100 118 185pTotal livestock exports 768 930 862 879 1136 1405

l l lp

Total agricultural exports 2 000 2 068 2 446 2 303 2 286 2 698a Includes malt. b Includes wheat flour. c Includes grains and oilseeds not separately listed. d Excludes cotton waste g p yand linters. e Other horticulture includes mainly nursery, coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous and linters. e Other horticulture includes mainly nursery, coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. g Includes meat and other animals not listed separately. s ABARES estimate.horticultural products. g Includes meat and other animals not listed separately. s ABARES estimate.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million. Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, CanberraSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, Canberra


TABLE 22 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

22 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) A l22AgriculturalexportstotheUnitedStates(fob)Australia2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 s

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mFarmCropsFarm

G iCropsGrains 0 0 0 1 2 0l dOilseeds 10 0 20 50 66 22

Pulses 3 4 5 4 5 4Total grains, oilseeds and pulses 13 4 25 55 73 26Industrial cropsSugar 68 92 135 66 43 67

pg

Wine 627 524 493 483 472 463Total industrial crops 695 616 628 549 515 530pHorticultureFruit 67 33 33 25 31 2467 33 33 25 31 24Tree nuts 22 12 15 28 48 6522 12 15 28 48 65Vegetables 7 6 5 5 6 8g 7 6 5 5 6 8Nursery 3 2 2 2 2 2y 3 2 2 2 2 2Other horticulture a 14 16 15 19 28 3714 16 15 19 28 37Total horticulture 112 69 69 79 115 136Total horticulture 112 69 69 79 115 136Other crops and crop products 167 168 142 191 258 246Other crops and crop products 167 168 142 191 258 246Total crops 987 857 864 873 962 938Total crops 987 857 864 873 962 938Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 817 704 896 961 1 375 3 240Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 817 704 896 961 1 375 3 240Lamb 303 335 305 295 399 504Lamb 303 335 305 295 399 504Mutton 32 38 21 34 49 75Mutton 32 38 21 34 49 75Other meat and live animals b 0 0 0 0 0 1Other meat and live animals b 0 0 0 0 0 1Total meat and live animals 1 152 1 077 1 222 1 290 1 823 3 820Total meat and live animals 1 152 1 077 1 222 1 290 1 823 3 820WoolGreasy 9 11 8 7 4 7Wool Greasy 9 11 8 7 4 7Semi‐processed 3 3 3 2 2 3Semi‐processed 3 3 3 2 2 3Skins 0 0 0 0 0 0Skins 0 0 0 0 0 0Total 12 14 11 9 7 9Total 12 14 11 9 7 9Dairy productsB tt 10 3 7 13 1 13Dairy productsButter 10 3 7 13 1 13Ch 20 12 3 11 9 27Cheese 20 12 3 11 9 27C i 23 13 7 9 4 1Casein 23 13 7 9 4 1Wh l ilk d 9 4 4 5 0 1Whole milk powder 9 4 4 5 0 1Oth d i d t 13 18 15 16 11 10Other dairy products 13 18 15 16 11 10T t l d i d t t 75 50 35 53 24 52Total dairy product exports 75 50 35 53 24 52Oth li t k t 116 125 115 136 176 289Other livestock exports 116 125 115 136 176 289T t l li t k t 1 354 1 266 1 383 1 488 2 030 4 170Total livestock exports 1 354 1 266 1 383 1 488 2 030 4 170Total agricultural exports 2 341 2 123 2 248 2 361 2 992 5 108Total agricultural exports 2 341 2 123 2 248 2 361 2 992 5 108

h h l l d l ff l l d h ll h l l da Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. b Includes meat and live animals not listed separately. s ABARES estimate.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, Canberra; ; p g ,



Fisheries exports

TABLE 23 Volume of fisheries products exports Australia

STATISTICS

23 Volume of fisheries products exports Australia23VolumeoffisheriesproductsexportsAustralia2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–152009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15

k k k k k kkt kt kt kt kt ktEdible aEdible aFishLive 1 0 0 9 0 9 0 8 0 9 0 8Fish Live 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 Tuna 9.5 7.8 8.9 8.9 11.0 12.1Salmonids 4.0 6.4 5.8 2.6 1.8 5.0 Salmonids 4.0 6.4 5.8 2.6 1.8 5.0Swordfish 0 4 0 4 0 5 0 5 0 4 0 5 Swordfish 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5Whiti 1 3 1 8 0 9 0 4 0 1 0 0 Whiting 1.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0g Other fish 5.4 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.4 5.3 Other fish 5.4 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.4 5.3Total fish 21 7 22 7 22 0 17 8 18 6 23 6Total fish 21.7 22.7 22.0 17.8 18.6 23.6Crustaceans and molluscsCrustaceans and molluscs Rock lobster 7.7 7.0 6.9 7.8 8.0 8.2Prawns 4.7 6.4 5.4 3.9 7.1 6.5 Prawns 4.7 6.4 5.4 3.9 7.1 6.5Abalone 3 6 3 4 3 1 2 8 2 7 2 6 Abalone 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.6S ll Scallops 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3p Crabs 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.6 Crabs 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.6Other crustaceans and molluscs 1 0 1 2 1 7 2 1 1 6 1 6 Other crustaceans and molluscs 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.6Total crustaceans and molluscs 19 2 19 6 18 4 17 5 20 3 19 7Total crustaceans and molluscs 19.2 19.6 18.4 17.5 20.3 19.7Total edible 40.9 42.4 40.5 35.3 38.9 43.3Total ediblea Includes prepared and preserved.a Includes prepared and preserved.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnesNote: Zero is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes.S A li B f S i iSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries exports

TABLE 24 Value of fisheries products exports (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15$m $m $m $m $m $m

Live 40.4 33.4 32.0 30.7 34.2 29.9 Tuna 118.5 131.4 162.7 162.6 135.5 151.0 Salmonids 29.6 54.4 41.8 25.4 17.4 48.1 Swordfish 4.2 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.9 4.4 Whiting 3.4 5.0 2.5 1.4 0.2 0.1 Other fish 61.6 58.1 46.2 34.2 34.2 37.7Total fish 257.8 286.8 289.4 258.2 225.4 271.2

Rock lobster 399.7 369.3 386.7 447.3 590.3 691.2 Prawns 61.5 77.1 66.7 51.8 101.0 94.2 Abalone 216.4 212.0 197.3 186.0 170.0 173.8 Scallops 29.5 15.4 15.3 10.8 13.6 10.7 Crabs 13.8 13.4 11.0 8.2 5.5 7.9Other crustaceans and molluscs 8.5 16.3 34.4 40.2 32.5 43.7Total crustaceans and molluscs 729.3 703.6 711.3 744.2 912.9 1 021.5Total edible 987.1 990.3 1 000.7 1 002.3 1 138.3 1 292.7

Marine fats and oils 4.8 5.4 7.3 10.0 9.1 20.9 Fish meal 2.1 1.6 0.4 1.0 0.7 1.0 Pearls a 243.9 241.3 206.6 151.5 144.4 110.8 Ornamental fish 2.7 2.3 2.3 3.8 2.0 1.9 Other non‐edible 5.5 7.3 9.4 6.5 9.7 12.3Total non‐edible 259.0 257.9 226.1 172.8 165.9 147.0Total fisheries products 1 246.1 1 248.2 1 226.8 1 175.2 1 304.3 1 439.6

24Valueoffisheriesproductsexports(fob)Australia

Edible

Crustaceans and molluscs

Non‐edible

a Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Fish


Fisheries imports

TABLE 25 Volume of fisheries products imports Australia2525 Volume of fisheries products imports Australia25VolumeoffisheriesproductsimportsAustralia2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–152009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15

kt kt kt kt kt ktkt kt kt kt kt ktEdible aFishTuna 39 9 45 6 40 8 46 9 50 1 49 2Fish Tuna 39.9 45.6 40.8 46.9 50.1 49.2S l id Salmonids 9.8 9.9 10.2 11.9 14.2 16.1 Hake 5.4 6.7 5.3 6.1 4.5 4.9 Hake 5.4 6.7 5.3 6.1 4.5 4.9Swordfish 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 Swordfish 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2Toothfish 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 1 Toothfish 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 Herrings 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.8 0.9 1.1e gsShark 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 Shark 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6Other fish 83 3 83 1 86 6 92 8 90 0 87 6 Other fish 83.3 83.1 86.6 92.8 90.0 87.6Total fish b 140.3 147.1 144.4 160.5 160.8 159.8Crustaceans and molluscsPrawns 34 5 32 6 37 5 34 8 38 7 32 4Crustaceans and molluscs Prawns 34.5 32.6 37.5 34.8 38.7 32.4L b t 0 7 0 9 0 9 0 8 1 0 1 1 Lobster 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 Crabs 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.0 Crabs 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.0Mussels 2 4 2 6 2 8 3 7 3 6 3 1 Mussels 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.7 3.6 3.1Scallops 2 8 2 6 3 0 3 1 3 5 2 9 Scallops 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.5 2.9 Squid and octopus 16.0 15.2 17.0 19.9 23.2 22.3q pOther crustaceans and molluscs 9.6 9.4 7.3 4.1 4.8 4.0 Other crustaceans and molluscs 9.6 9.4 7.3 4.1 4.8 4.0Total crustaceans and molluscs 67 2 64 7 69 8 67 9 76 7 67 8Total crustaceans and molluscs 67.2 64.7 69.8 67.9 76.7 67.8

l dibl 20 4 211 8 214 2 228 4 23 22 6Total edible abc 207.4 211.8 214.2 228.4 237.5 227.6a Includes prepared and preserved. b Excludes live tonnage. c Includes other fisheries products not classified a Includes prepared and preserved. b Excludes live tonnage. c Includes other fisheries products not classified into fish or crustaceans and molluscsinto fish or crustaceans and molluscs.Source: Australian Bureau of StatisticsSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries imports

TABLE 26 Value of fisheries products imports Australia

STATISTICS

26 Value of fisheries products imports Australia26ValueoffisheriesproductsimportsAustralia2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–152009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mEdible aEdible aFishTuna 169 3 200 8 205 5 258 2 296 1 283 9Fish Tuna 169.3 200.8 205.5 258.2 296.1 283.9 Salmonids 85.8 84.4 91.8 118.8 167.5 190.7Hake 26.1 27.2 20.9 23.4 19.5 21.8 Hake 26.1 27.2 20.9 23.4 19.5 21.8Swordfish 1 8 1 5 1 2 1 7 1 4 1 7 Swordfish 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.7T thfi h 1 3 1 4 1 3 2 2 3 0 3 5 Toothfish 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.2 3.0 3.5 Herrings 4.5 4.3 4.2 5.1 4.5 3.9 Herrings 4.5 4.3 4.2 5.1 4.5 3.9Shark 5 6 4 4 4 0 4 6 5 5 4 9 Shark 5.6 4.4 4.0 4.6 5.5 4.9Other fish 455 0 443 7 459 6 480 0 507 5 544 2 Other fish 455.0 443.7 459.6 480.0 507.5 544.2Total fish b 751.5 769.1 788.6 866.5 1 004.9 1 054.6Total fish bCrustaceans and molluscsPrawns 298 7 291 0 350 9 304 8 495 1 431 2Crustaceans and molluscs Prawns 298.7 291.0 350.9 304.8 495.1 431.2L b t Lobster 11.8 15.0 16.0 15.3 22.4 28.3 Crabs 12.4 13.3 15.5 16.8 28.3 31.1 Crabs 12.4 13.3 15.5 16.8 28.3 31.1Mussels 9 3 10 2 11 7 17 1 19 1 17 9 Mussels 9.3 10.2 11.7 17.1 19.1 17.9Scallops 33 5 34 5 43 6 41 1 52 9 49 6 Scallops 33.5 34.5 43.6 41.1 52.9 49.6 Squid and octopus 62.0 74.3 90.4 97.7 114.5 111.6Squ d a d oc opusOther crustaceans and molluscs 66.5 65.3 57.0 40.7 44.0 42.9 Other crustaceans and molluscs 66.5 65.3 57.0 40.7 44.0 42.9Total crustaceans and molluscs 494 2 503 5 585 1 533 4 776 3 712 5Total crustaceans and molluscs 494.2 503.5 585.1 533.4 776.3 712.5Total edible abc 1 243.9 1 271.3 1 373.8 1 427.7 1 781.3 1 767.3Non‐ediblePearls d 170 8 166 9 138 2 105 4 102 1 97 2Non ediblePearls d 170.8 166.9 138.2 105.4 102.1 97.2Fish meal 51 9 46 7 34 2 43 3 43 2 64 3Fish meal 51.9 46.7 34.2 43.3 43.2 64.3Ornamental fish 4.6 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.5 4.4Ornamental fish 4.6 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.5 4.4Marine fats and oils 26.8 31.0 39.5 39.1 40.1 52.7Marine fats and oils 26.8 31.0 39.5 39.1 40.1 52.7Other marine products 14 9 9 9 17 1 29 0 30 4 22 2Other marine products 14.9 9.9 17.1 29.0 30.4 22.2T l diblTotal non‐edible 269.0 258.4 232.8 220.7 220.3 240.8Total fisheries products 1 512.9 1 529.7 1 606.6 1 648.4 2 001.6 2 008.1Total fisheries products 1 512.9 1 529.7 1 606.6 1 648.4 2 001.6 2 008.1a Includes prepared and preserved b Includes live value c Includes other fisheries products not classified into fish ora Includes prepared and preserved. b Includes live value. c Includes other fisheries products not classified into fish or

t d ll dM i l i tcrustaceans and molluscs. d Mainly re‐imports.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries trade

TABLE 27 Value of Australian fisheries products trade, by selected countries Australia

STATISTICS

2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15$m $m $m $m $m $m

Hong Kong 530.0 425.9 479.1 317.0 208.9 192.3Vietnam 4.3 8.4 60.5 293.2 565.6 715.6Japan 215.5 225.9 254.6 236.0 192.1 192.1China 43.5 143.2 58.5 45.2 36.6 48.7Singapore 37.4 41.2 42.5 31.0 34.2 35.0United States 49.5 35.7 23.1 17.9 22.1 28.0Taiwan 32.5 29.6 17.5 9.8 13.7 15.1Thailand 9.0 16.0 18.1 9.3 8.0 10.0New Zealand 16.6 9.6 10.1 9.1 14.5 13.9Malaysia 9.2 12.9 7.7 7.8 9.9 11.2Indonesia 6.9 8.7 6.1 7.4 9.9 9.3

Hong Kong 137.8 145.1 96.6 54.3 74.6 55.9Japan 49.8 43.3 44.4 33.0 26.9 23.4United States 15.5 8.1 22.2 21.0 19.2 16.6

Thailand 322.1 340.2 362.1 399.8 417.0 422.1New Zealand 212.3 210.0 197.3 206.3 206.8 189.6China 173.0 185.6 231.5 196.5 341.5 284.7Vietnam 152.7 161.7 174.5 163.1 231.7 233.1Malaysia 63.0 71.2 73.2 81.0 97.9 94.7United States 37.3 39.9 45.1 52.2 56.0 53.0Indonesia 38.9 27.9 36.3 50.9 73.5 85.6Taiwan 36.7 39.5 38.9 48.1 44.5 58.3South Africa 35.8 33.1 32.2 36.2 50.5 53.0Denmark 29.6 28.2 31.3 35.1 31.6 27.5Norway 23.6 18.8 25.3 32.2 44.8 58.2Other 26.7 24.7 27.1 29.9 45.4 68.1

27ValueofAustralianfisheriesproductstrade,byselectedcountriesAustra

a Country details for non‐edible imports are not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Exports

Imports a

Edible (including live)

Non‐edible

Edible (excluding live)


Forest exports

TABLE 28 Volume of forest products exports Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15

Roundwood ’000 m3 1 377 1 638 1 806 1 516 2 363 2 616

Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 322 265 198 207 268 299 Softwood dressed ’000 m3 13 9 13 3 5 26 Hardwood roughsawn ’000 m3 37 39 26 20 73 117 Hardwood dressed ’000 m3 16 30 15 7 25 73 Total ’000 m3 387 344 252 237 371 515Railway sleepers ’000 m3 9 8 8 8 17 14

Veneers ’000 m3 90 119 106 52 64 50 Plywood ’000 m3 24 7 18 36 36 14 Particleboard ’000 m3 11 6 4 2 6 11 Hardboard b ’000 m3 1 2 2 2 3 11 Medium‐density fibreboard ’000 m3 152 115 79 52 75 78 Softboard and other fibreboards ’000 m3 2 5 5 1 1 21 Total ’000 m3 280 254 214 146 184 185

Newsprint kt 6 19 30 72 85 56 Printing and writing kt 146 84 132 139 153 141 Household and sanitary kt 31 39 26 12 20 23 Packaging and industrial kt 708 887 933 906 950 948 Total kt 890 1 029 1 121 1 127 1 207 1 168Recovered paper kt 1 444 1 323 1 403 1 506 1 449 1 397Pulp kt 18 31 1 0 0 0Woodchips cd kt 4 818 5 064 4 150 3 806 4 776 5 707

Quantity

Sawnwood a

Wood‐based panels

28VolumeofwoodproductexportsAustralia

a Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes.Note: Components may not add to totals due to rounding. Zero is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Paper and paperboard


Forest exports

TABLE 29 Value of forest products exports (fob) Australia

STATISTICS

2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15$m $m $m $m $m $m

Roundwood 138 198 175 155 292 313

Softwood roughsawn 76 67 55 61 75 74 Softwoods dressed 7 5 3 2 3 11 Hardwood roughsawn 33 34 23 20 22 20 Hardwood dressed 10 10 7 6 7 5 Total 125 115 88 90 108 110Railway sleepers 2 3 3 3 3 2Miscellaneous forest products a 52 60 59 61 71 75

Veneers 44 52 51 24 29 27 Plywood 3 2 2 4 3 3 Particleboard 4 2 1 1 1 2 Hardboard b 1 2 2 2 2 2 Medium‐density fibreboard c 54 39 26 19 26 27 Softboard and other fibreboards 1 1 1 0 0 6 Total 106 98 83 51 62 67

Newsprint 6 13 15 36 59 39 Printing and writing 143 88 120 117 139 146 Household and sanitary 97 94 64 33 49 60 Packaging and industrial 404 552 518 526 605 657 Total 649 747 717 712 853 901Paper manufactures d 102 112 134 132 132 109Recovered paper 228 240 240 230 241 241Pulp 13 11 1 0 0 0Woodchips 856 884 729 611 768 954Total 2 272 2 469 2 229 2 044 2 529 2 772a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Some categories of medium‐density fibreboard are confidential. d Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing.Note: Components may not add to totals due to rounding. Zero is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Value

Sawnwood


Wood‐based panels

29Valueofwoodproductsexports(fob)Australia


Forest imports

TABLE 30 Volume of forest products imports Australia

unit 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15

Roundwood ’000 m3 1 1 1 1 1 1

Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 293 290 239 247 271 291 Softwood dressed ’000 m3 367 468 470 443 449 608 Hardwood roughsawn ’000 m3 43 43 46 41 41 43 Hardwood dressed ’000 m3 45 45 36 28 25 26 Total ’000 m3 748 846 791 759 786 968

Veneers ’000 m3 15 17 15 13 9 12 Plywood ’000 m3 228 278 293 278 287 341 Particleboard ’000 m3 57 72 67 72 95 95 Hardboard ’000 m3 33 49 69 60 86 82 Medium‐density fibreboard ’000 m3 70 58 91 77 65 85 Softboard and other fibreboards ’000 m3 6 7 7 6 5 7 Total ’000 m3 410 480 542 505 548 622

Newsprint kt 191 222 121 85 75 76 Printing and writing kt 1 167 1 237 1 174 1 155 1 172 1 040 Household and sanitary kt 101 114 118 159 123 142 Packaging and industrial kt 285 314 333 385 357 392 Total kt 1 744 1 886 1 746 1 783 1 727 1 651Recovered paper kt 3 2 3 4 5 4Pulp kt 265 233 256 263 297 302Woodchips kt 1 1 1 1 2 2

30VolumeofwoodproductimportsAustralia

Wood‐based panels


Quantity

a Excludes railway sleepers.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Sawnwood a


Forest imports

TABLE 31 Value of forest products imports Australia

STATISTICS

2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15$m $m $m $m $m $m

Roundwood 0 1 1 1 1 1

Softwood roughsawn 140 135 105 100 111 128 Softwood dressed 200 248 248 246 281 382 Hardwood roughsawn 39 40 44 41 46 57 Hardwood dressed 50 50 51 35 31 34 Total 429 473 448 423 468 601Miscellaneous forest products a 630 707 756 769 946 1 102

Veneers 22 21 21 19 15 22 Plywood 138 170 183 184 210 264 Particleboard 18 21 26 27 35 38 Hardboard 30 40 54 48 72 67 Medium‐density fibreboard 37 34 36 32 35 45 Softboard and other fibreboards 3 3 3 2 3 3 Total 248 289 323 311 370 439

Newsprint 158 176 91 58 49 48 Printing and writing 1 355 1 347 1 217 1 151 1 194 1 123 Household and sanitary 164 185 187 244 208 254 Packaging and industrial 499 515 543 590 654 728 Total 2 175 2 223 2 037 2 043 2 105 2 153Paper manufactures b 563 557 486 446 537 582Recovered paper 1 0 1 1 2 1Pulp 178 180 164 154 203 217Woodchips 1 2 2 3 3 3Total 4 225 4 431 4 217 4 151 4 636 5 099

Value

Sawnwood

Wood‐based panels


31ValueofwoodproductsimportsAustralia

a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing.Note: Components may not add to totals due to rounding. Zero used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


TABLE 32 Value of Australian forest products trade, by selected countries a

STATISTICS

32 Value of Australian wood products trade, by selected countries a32ValueofAustralianwoodproductstrade,byselectedcountriesa2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–152009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mExportsChina 394 544 534 474 542 816ExportsChina 394 544 534 474 542 816H K 69 42 39 16 10 12Hong Kong 69 42 39 16 10 12Japan 774 745 579 394 21 316Japan 774 745 579 394 21 316Korea Rep of 48 40 40 33 45 38Korea, Rep. of 48 40 40 33 45 38Malaysia 82 106 112 73 87 70Malaysia 82 106 112 73 87 70New Zealand 319 314 305 269 290 296Taiwan 88 79 68 68 57 73Taiwan 88 79 68 68 57 73ImportsChiImportsChina 635 690 800 913 1 110 1 321Finland 172 143 120 205 221 184Finland 172 143 120 205 221 184Germany 179 183 148 135 163 150Germany 179 183 148 135 163 150I d i 355 332 342 313 348 427Indonesia 355 332 342 313 348 427Malaysia 218 228 236 227 249 270Malaysia 218 228 236 227 249 270New Zealand 705 715 634 557 605 646New Zealand 705 715 634 557 605 646United States 315 285 298 304 339 361United States 315 285 298 304 339 361

l f d d d l d l d d h f d l la Value of wood products trade to selected countries may exclude data where confidentiality restrictions apply.p y y pp ySources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Forestry trade


ABARES reports released since Agricultural commodities (vol. 5 no. 3 September quarter 2015)This section provides an overview of the range of subjects covered by ABARES.

Full reports can be downloaded from agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications. For more information contact [email protected].

Research reports

Australia’s beef supply chains: infrastructure issues and implications

Research report 15.7

Publication date: 14 October 2015

Authors: Tim Goesch, Kenton Lawson, Richard Green and Kristopher Morey.

This report examines Australia’s beef supply chains and identifies main infrastructure impediments to the movement of cattle and beef from farm to port. The real value of world agrifood demand is projected to increase by 77 per cent between 2007 and 2050, with most of this increase occurring in Asia. Demand for beef could increase significantly, as a result of rising incomes in Asia and an increase in demand for higher protein foods.

Australia’s cost recovery arrangements for export certification: implications for Australian agriculture


Publication date: 29 October 2015

Authors: Linden Whittle, Kyann Zhang, Kasia Mazur, Maggie Skirtun, Donkor Addai, Emily M Gray and Alistair Davidson

This report estimates how full cost recovery for export certification affects the value of Australia’s agriculture and investigates cost recovery arrangements in competitor countries for major export commodities. Most agricultural and fisheries products

Report extracts


Report extracts

intended for export from Australia are certified to verify that production, storage, handling and transport meet Australian export controls. Importing countries may require additional government certification to verify that products comply with their import requirements, including for biosecurity and food safety.

What Indonesia wants: analysis of Indonesia’s food demand to 2050


Publication date: 9 November 2015

Authors: Caroline Gunning-Trant, Yu Sheng, Patrick Hamshere, Trish Gleeson and Brian Moir

Food demand in Indonesia is expected to increase significantly towards 2050 as a result of significant income growth and urbanisation. This report examines projected food demand in Indonesia across urban and rural populations under a business-as-usual policy environment with no changes to underlying policies.

Other reports

Catchment Scale Land Use of Australia—update September 2015Publication date: 16 September 2015

This dataset is the most current national compilation of catchment-scale land use data for Australia, as at September 2015. It is a seamless raster dataset that combines land use data for all state and territory jurisdictions, compiled at a resolution of 50 metres by 50 metres.

A manual for measuring total factor productivity in Australian agriculturePublication date: 15 October 2015

Authors: Yu Sheng and Tom Jackson

This report describes a new method and dataset to measure output, input and total factor productivity in Australian agriculture. It measures the productivity performance of Australia’s agriculture industry over time to provide insight into trends in farm performance and effects of policy reforms.

Australia’s forests at a glance 2015Publication date: 28 October 2015

This pocketbook covers forest types, areas and how native forests—including old growth forests—are conserved and managed. It also covers: wood harvesting and production and consumption of wood products; employment in the forestry and wood products industries; and forest certification and codes of practice.


Fishery status reports 2015Publication date: 30 October 2015

This report reviews the performance of Commonwealth fisheries against legislative requirements and provides key performance indicators for the Australian Fisheries Management Authority.

Australian forest and wood products statistics: March and June quarters 2015Publication date: 11 November 2015

This issue includes 2013–14 data for key domestic economic indicators—including turnover and industry value added—and 2014–15 data for employment and dwelling commencements. This issue also provides 2014–15 data for production and consumption of wood-based panel products and Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) trade data for the March and June quarters 2015.

Australian grains: outlook for 2015–16 and industry productivityPublication date: 17 November 2015

Authors: David Mobsby, Christopher Price, Clay Mifsud, Tom Jackson, Astrid Dahl and Haydn Valle

This report summarises the grains and oilseed forecasts presented in the September 2015 Australian crop report and Agricultural commodities (vol. 5 no. 3) and the Weekly Australian climate, water and agricultural update (15 October 2015).

A framework for regular national recreational fishing surveysPublication date: 18 November 2015

Authors: Lee Georgeson, Andy Moore, Peter Ward, Nyree Stenekes, Robert Kancans, Kasia Mazur, Robert Curtotti, Sean Tracey, Jeremy Lyle, Scott Hansen, Mark Chambers, Marcus Finn and Ilona Stobutzki

This report presents a framework for implementing national recreational fishing surveys and makes recommendations for future surveys. The Australian Government aims to conduct five-yearly national recreational fishing surveys under its Policy for a More Competitive and Sustainable Fisheries Sector.

Land use information for AustraliaPublication date: 20 November 2015

This brochure promotes the availability and application of land use mapping information produced by ABARES and the Australian Collaborative Land Use and Management Programme. This mapping is available at catchment and national scales.

Report extracts


Executive Director Karen Schneider [email protected] (02) 6272 4636

Agricultural Commodities and TradeAssistant Secretary and Chief Commodity Analyst Jammie Penm [email protected] (02) 6272 2030Agricultural Trade Caroline Gunning-Trant [email protected] (02) 6272 2123Agricultural Commodities Trish Gleeson [email protected] (02) 6272 2124ACT Outlook Peter Collins [email protected] (02) 6272 2017Agricultural Risks Management Matthew Miller [email protected] (02) 6272 3527

Farm Analysis and BiosecurityAssistant Secretary Peter Gooday [email protected] (02) 6272 2138Productivity Alistair Davidson [email protected] (02) 6272 2487Infrastructure and Water Tim Goesch [email protected] (02) 6272 2009Farm Survey and Analysis Milly Lubulwa [email protected] (02) 6272 2069Biosecurity Alistair Davidson [email protected] (02) 6272 2487Invasives and Social Sciences Bertie Hennecke [email protected] (02) 6272 4263

Fisheries, Forestry and LandAssistant Secretary Ilona Stobutzki [email protected] (02) 6272 4277Domestic Fisheries and Marine Simon Nicol [email protected] (02) 6272 4638International Fisheries and Data James Larcombe [email protected] (02) 6272 3388Fisheries Economics Robert Curtotti [email protected] (02) 6272 2014Quantitative Sciences Belinda Barnes [email protected] (02) 6272 5374Forest Sciences Steve Read [email protected] (02) 6272 5582Forest Economics Beau Hug [email protected] (02) 6272 3929

Portfolio Strategies and LandAssistant Secretary Lisa Elliston [email protected] (02) 6272 2091Deregulation Donna Hawkes [email protected] (02) 6272 4627Data and Land John Sims [email protected] (02) 6272 5732

Editing, Production, Online and Design John Wilson [email protected] (02) 6272 3811Library Resources Karen Kidd [email protected] (02) 6272 4270Media [email protected] (02) 6272 3232Publication inquiries [email protected] (02) 6272 3933

ABARES contacts

Agricultural commodities December quarter 2015 was designed and produced by the Department of Agriculture and Water Resources and the Agricultural Commodities team of ABARES. Editors: Jane Wiles and Emma Rossiter

agriculture.gov.au/abares

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)

Postal address GPO Box 858 Canberra ACT 2601

Switchboard +61 2 6272 3933

Email [email protected]

Web agriculture.gov.au/abares

The ‘Biosphere’ Graphic ElementThe biosphere is a key part of the department’s visual identity. Individual biospheres are used to visually describe the diverse nature of the work we do as a department, in Australia and internationally.

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Also in this series• Agricultural commodities, September 2014• Agricultural commodities, December 2014• Agricultural commodities, March 2015• Agricultural commodities, June 2015• Agricultural commodities, September 2015

agricultural commodities – march quarter...

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