Agricultural Flood Damage Observation and Economic Assessment

Joe Morris Professor Emeritus, Cranfield University , UKDirector: M-RES Ltd

With acknowledgements to colleagues at Cranfield including Tim Hess, Peter Leeds-Harrison, Helena Posthumus and others

Workshop on Flood Impacts ObservationMontpellier November 5th to 7th , 2019

J.morris@cranfield.ac.ukj.morris@m-res.co.uk

Agricultural Flood Impact Observations: key messages

• Flood damage critically depends on: • Land Use Intensity • Seasonality• Duration

• Flooding and ‘Land Drainage’ go together• Impacts are diffuse and dispersed, but locally

important • Relatively small share of total costs of major

events• New roles for Agric FRM: CC and Wildlife?• Need for primary impact data and research

support

Objectives and contents

Objectives :• To review, drawing on practical experience of the

UK case, approaches to the assessment of the impact & costs of flooding on Agriculture.

• To interpret this for future assessments, with implications for policy and practice.

Contents:Conceptualising agricultural flooding Assessing economic damages Examples from practiceFutures?

• Flooding : ‘excess’ water, surface and groundwater

• Sources : fluvial, pluvial, coastal/tidal, groundwater

• Risk : combination of probability of a flood event and consequence

• Management : purposeful intervention (including do nothing)

• Agriculture: production of food and fibre

FRM and Agriculture

FRM Context and Motivation : UKAgricultural and Rural Policy Strategic AssetsFood SecurityClimate change: floods and droughtsWetlands for wildlife and people: Natural flood risk management Integrated catchment and shoreline management

Agric Land Grade

Land Cover

• Control of excess water on the land surface (flooding) and in the soil profile (water logging)

• ‘Flood and Land Drainage’ Management

• Modifications to channel capacity

• Sea defences/coastal protection

• Management of water levels in rivers and arterial systems, gravity or pumped

• Installation of field drains

Flood Risk Management for Agriculture

Approach to Agricultural Flood Impact Observation and Assessment and Farmflood Model

Developed initially from ex-post evaluation appraisal of investments in Flood Defence and Land Drainage (1980s) (22 schemes in E&W )

Applied to ex ante assessments (during 1980s/90s) when public investments for agriculture under scrutiny.Used to assess ex post flood event impacts, 2007, 2012, 2013/14, currently 2016-2019

Used to support Govt ‘Flood Cost Calculator’ Used for strategic assessments

Applied in Guidance

Simplified framework for Agricultural FRM

FRM interventions Hydrology Land use and management

Soil wetness

Land drainage

‘Channel’ capacity Surface

FloodingPhysical, financial

and economic productivity

Coastal protection

Institutions, Policy and Market Drivers and Responses

Natural Resources and Environment

• The flood risk areas : flood magnitude & frequency

• Land use

• Land productivity and drainage

• Seasonality

• Duration

• Water depth and quality

• Multiple floods

• Proportion of farms in flood area

Factors to consider in assessing FRM for Agriculture

Estimating Agricultural Damages

• Water regimes: • Flooding

• Waterlogging

Frequency

Seasonality Duration

Depth

Standards of Agricultural

Flood Defence and Drainage

Low High

Profitability of farming systems

Quality

Damage Costs of a Flood Event

Intensive arableExtensive grassland

Land use is critical

Surface Flooding of Agricultural Land • Flooding from Rivers and

Sea

• Inundation of low lying riparian/floodplain land

• Inundation of coastal and estuarine areas, with saline water

• E.g. summer 2007 in England, winter 2013/14 in England and Wales.

Impact on Agriculture Reduced plant growth

• Lower harvest yields• Reduced crop quality• Loss of grazing and fodder for

livestockPhysical damage

• Crops, livestock, infrastructure and equipment

• Damage to soils • Remedial & clean-up costs

Reduced crop and land use choicesAgricultural Land Loss

Whole

Year

Summer

April-October

Horticulture 1 in 20 1 in 100

Intensive arable

including sugar beet

and potatoes

1 in 10 1 in 25

Extensive arable:

cereals, beans, oil

seeds

1 in 8 1 in 8

Intensive grass:

improved grass, usually

dairying

1 in 2 1 in 5

Extensive grass, usually

cattle and sheep

At least once per

year

1 in 3

Common tolerable flood frequencies: annual

probability

Agricultural land use

Type

Agricultural Land Use and Flood ToleranceThe more intensive is land use, the greater the cost of a flood event Land use intensity and flood probability negatively correlated

Spring Summer Autumn Winter

Horticulture High High High Moderate –High

Intensive arable Moderate High High Moderate –High

Extensive arable Moderate High Moderate- High Low-Moderate

Grassland intensive Moderate High Moderate Low

Grassland extensive Low Moderate Low Low

Seasonal flooding: vulnerability

Estimated monthly distribution of flood events by region in England &Wales (Roca et al, 2010)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

January February March April May June July August September October November December

Anglian Midlands, South and North East North West, South West and Wales Thames All

Based on hydrological data, about 76 % of floods are expected to occur in winter , October - March

Agricultural Yield Loss due to flooding varies according to month/crop season

Yield loss % of normal

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

October November December January February March April May June July August September

Winter cereals Potatoes GrassFlooding of about 1 week duration

• Contamination

• Anoxic conditions

• Salinity

Water Quality

Crop group Sensitivity to saline flooding Yield Penalty (extra penalty as a % of normal yield

relative to fluvial)

Barley and oil seed rape Tolerant 10%

Sugar beet Tolerant 10% (including pre-planting)

Winter cereals Moderately tolerant 15%

Spring cereals Moderately sensitive 10% before planting, 20% after

Spring peas Moderately sensitive 15% before planting, 20% after

Horticulture and potatoes Sensitive 30% before planting, 100% after

Source : after Roca et al., 2010

• Effects are broadly additive up to the point where crops cannot recover and total yield is lost

• Currymoor Somerset 2012 , repeat floods in April and June, complete loss of grass for grazing and winter feed, requiring reseeding in parts

Multiple Floods

Waterlogging: below surface flooding

• Prolonged periods of soil wetness post-surface flooding and during periods of excess rainfall

Impact on Agriculture Reduced plant growth

• Lower harvest yields• Reduced crop quality• Loss of grazing and fodder for

livestock• Reduced field access for machines and

grazing animals• Soil structural damage• Reduced crop and land use choices

• Agriculture productivity influenced by soil wetness (depth to water table)

• Prescribed conditions for • Good (rarely wet), no impediment

• Bad (occasionally wet) reduced yields, access

• Very Bad (commonly wet), restriction on land use

Land drainage and productivity

Land drainage and productivity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Winter wheat and barley Spring wheat and barley Oil seed rape Potatoes, Peas, Sugar Beet

Good Bad Very Bad

% normal yields

Drainage England and Wales@ Based on survey and literature. Morris et al, various dates

Agricultural Flood Costs (CFARMFLOOD) are best estimated at the farm level and then aggregated to the total area flooded

• CFARMFLOOD = arable + grass + livestock + other

Where :

• arable = croplossA + inputsA + harvestA+ landA–reseedA + residualA

• grass = foragelossG + inputsG- harvestG + landG+ reseedG + residualG

• livestock = move + housing + feed + services + mortality + sales

• other = buildings + utilities + machinery + field infrastructure + debris + farm services +financing + miscellaneous

• arable = croplossA + inputsA + harvestA+ landA– reseedA + residualA

Arable crop flood damage

• grass = foragelossG + inputsG- harvestG + landG+ reseedG + residualG

Grass flood damage costs

• livestock = move + housing + feed + services + mortality + sales

Livestock damage costs

• other = buildings + utilities + machinery + field infrastructure + debris + farm services +financing + miscellaneous

Other farm damage costs

Financial Appraisal

Impacts on incomes and expenditures of private individuals and organisations expressed in market prices paid and received

Whose Spectacles ?

Agricultural Accounting conventions Farm BudgetsCAP income support payments CAP agri-environment

Economic Appraisal National economy viewpointUses ‘economic’ rather than financial prices

Prices adjusted to remove taxes, subsidies and price supportAssets valued at ‘remaining’ value/’betterment’AdditionalityDiscounting Scale effects: strategic assets, vulnerabilityWelfare issues: rural economy

Agricultural Flood Impact: England Summer 2007

Agric Damage costs per ha : England summer 2007: 50,000 ha flooded, Cost £50M

• CFARMFLOOD = arable + grass + livestock + other

Horti-

culture

General

cropping

Cereals Mixed Dairy Grazing

livestock

Pigs All farms

(n = 4) (n = 20) (n = 22) (n = 11) (n = 9) (n = 9) (n = 3) (n = 78)

Arable production 6,592 1,760 530 223 163 7 715 828

Grass production 0 64 73 143 464 371 68 156

Livestock production 0 5 12 -3 328 152 4 58

Other287 199 236 49 104 81 162 163

TOTAL COST 6,879 2,028 850 411 1,058 612 948 1,207

Posthumus, H., Morris, J., Hess, T.M., Neville, D., Phillips, E. and Baylis, A. (2009). Impacts of the summer 2007 floods on agriculture in England. Journal of Flood Risk Management. 2009:1-8.

Agriculture flood impacts: England Summer 2007

n = 11

n = 9

n = 22

n = 9

n = 3

n = 4

n = 20

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Mixed

Grazing livestock

Cereals

Dairy

Pigs

Horticulture

General cropping

Total flood loss £k/farm

Arable production losses

Grass production losses

Livestock production losses

Damage to farm assets

Other costs

Source : Posthumus, Morris et al , 2009

Arable production

, 69%

Grass production

13%

Livestock production

5%

Other13%

Av Flood Damage Costs % Total

Arable production Grass production Livestock production Other

Costs of a major flood? England Summer 2007

0 50 100 150 200 250

Roads

Schools

Electricity

Waste Water

Water supply

Railways

Community leisure centres

Police, fire**

Property (£M)*

Services (£M)

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Households

Businesses

Utilities

Public Health/welfare

Communications

Local Government

Temp Housing

Vehicles

Agriculture

Environment Agency

Emergency Services

Insured (£M)

Uninsured (£M)

Chatterton, J., Viavattene, C., Morris, J., Penning-Rowsell, E. and Tapsell S.. 2010. The Costs of the Summer 2007 floods in England. Report to the Environment Agency Science Project SC070039, Cranfield University, Bedford http://publications.environment-agency.gov.uk/pdf/SCHO1109BRJA-e-e.pdf

£3.2 Billion Economic cost

Agriculture : about 2% of total

Flooding: Somerset Moors & Levels, Spring /Summer 2012 (S W England)

• Impacts

• Emergency evacuation of livestock, housing or relocation

• Loss of grazing or silage/hay making & cost of supplementary grass feed

• Cost of reseeding pastures

• Loss of yield and quality on arable crops

• Damaged drainage systems and field infrastructure

• Loss of beneficial soil invertebrates

• Increased risk of animal disease

• Average damage costs £920/ha (long) and £174/ha (short) duration flooding respectively

• Virtually all losses uninsured

Morris & Brewin (2013)

Estimating the costs of t he Spring 2012 event on grassland in Somerset :

CFARMFLOOD = grass + livestock + other

Flooding < 2

weeks

Types of flood damage Central Range * Central **

£/ha £/ha £/ha

Loss of Grass Energy (D1) 506 383-638 102

450 338-564

Fat cattle sales (L2) 783 589-979

Contractor services (L3) 26 23-29

Reseeding costs (E1) 218 168-273

Loss of grazing Days (E2) 95 86-105 45

Clean up 15 13-17 7

20 18-22 5

Other 5 4-6 10

Financing 25 22-28 5

Management burden n/a n/a

Total other costs (O1) 65 59-72 27

Loss Scenarios for 2012

Long duration flooding

Grass energy loss D1+L3+E1+E2+O1 845 655-1,043

Hay loss L1+L3+E1+E2+O1 789 610-968

Fat cattle loss L2+L3+E1+E2+O1 1,122 860-1,384

Short duration flooding

Grass energy loss D1+E2+O1 174

Note : * range asumes: +/-25% for grass energy, hay sales and fatcattle and +/-10% for other items

** range for short duration f looding +25% .

Repairs to field infrastructure

Damage to crops and grassland (D)

Damage costs by flood duration

Extra Costs (E)

Other Costs (O)

Flooding 2-4 weeks or

more

Loss of Sales (L)

Loss of haysales /withy sales materials (L1)

grass energy loss, 40%

hay sales loss, 15%

livestock loss, 32%

other , 14%

Flood losses £916/ha

grass energy loss hay sales loss livestock loss other

690 ha on Currymoor, £590,000 totalOver 4,000 ha affected on Somerset Moors and Levels. Morris and Brewin, 2013

The Winter 2013/14 Flood

• Rain, Storm and Tidal Surge

• River, groundwater, ‘surface’ and coastal flooding

• Repeat and long duration

Chatterton, J., Clarke, C., Daly, E., Dawks, S., Elding, C., Fenn, T., Hick, E., Miller, J., Morris, J., Ogunyoye, F. and Salado R. 2016.The costs and

impacts of the winter 2013 to 2014 floods. Report SC140025/R1. Environment Agency, Bristol.

Flood images

Tewkesbury Abbey and flooded Swilgate © Copyright Philip Halling and licensed for reuse under this Creative Commons Licence. http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/3820432

Fowey, CornwallMarine Terrace - storm damage © Copyright Ian Capper and licensed for reuse under this Creative Commons Licence.http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/3804544

Storm surge damage, Happisburgh © Copyright Evelyn Simak and licensed for reuse under this Creative Commons Licence.http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/3774240

Source : PB/BVSowey, Somerset

Impacts of 2014 winter floods on agriculture in E &W

Impact type £ million (2014 prices) Range £ million

ARABLE 6.9 5.5 –8.2(+/-20%) GRASSLAND 1.7 1.4 –2.0 (+/-20%) LIVESTOCK 4.1 2.1–6.2(+/-50%) OTHER 5.6 2.8 –8.4(+/-50%) Total 18.9 ADAS, 2014

Probably about 2% of total economic costs of winter 2014 floods :

Profile of Flood Costs: winter 2013/14

Residential, temp accom and vehicles

32%

Business 21%

Local Govt, Emergency Services 5%

Flood Infrastr12%

Utilities 2%

Transport23%

Health, education

2%

Agriculture + W/H/T 3%

% total costs: £1.3 billion*

England and Wales Local Impacts: Somerset

Source: Parsons Brinkerhoff , BV and Somerset Rivers Authority. 2016

Residential19%

Business14%

Local Govt, Emergency

Services20%

Utilities 1%

Transport35%

Social 4%

Agriculture 7%

% total economic costs: £84m*

*Plus: ‘Qualitative’ assessment £35m

(extra 40%)

*Central estimate

Agricultural Flood Impact Observations

• Flood Areas, land class/soils• Flood characteristics• Existing FRM infrastructure• Land use, farming systems and

productivity• Physical impacts: outputs and

inputs• Financial and Economic values

and valuation • Resilience/Recovery/Adaptation

What’s the purpose?

So what?

What to do?

Issues and priorities

• Monitoring impacts • More primary impact data • Consistent

methods/protocols• Targeted research/data &

knowledge • Data sharing and repositories• Cost calculators• Guidance for agencies• Decision Support

Some references • Brémond P., Grelot F., Agenais A.L., Review Article: Economic evaluation of flood damage to agriculture – review and analysis of existing methods, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,

13:2493–2512, 2013.

• Chatterton, J., Clarke, C., Daly, E., Dawks, S., Elding, C., Fenn, T., Hick, E., Miller, J., Morris, J., Ogunyoye, F. and Salado R. 2016. The costs and impacts of the winter 2013 to 2014 floods. Report SC140025/R1. Environment Agency, Bristol.

• Chatterton, J., Viavattene, C., Morris, J., Penning-Rowsell, E. and Tapsell S.. 2010. The Costs of the Summer 2007 floods in England. Report to the Environment Agency Science Project SC070039, Cranfield University, Bedford http://publications.environment-agency.gov.uk/pdf/SCHO1109BRJA-e-e.pdf

• Luisetti, T., Turner, R.K., Bateman, I.J., Morse-Jomes, S., Adams, C and Fonseca, L. 2011. Coastal and marine ecosystem services valuation for policy and management: Managed realignment case studies in England. Journal of Ocean & Coastal Management 54, 212-224.

• Molinari, D., Scorzini, A.R., Gallazzi, A., Ballio, F. 2019. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss, AGRIDE-c, a conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to crops: development and implementation . https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-61 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

• Morris, J, Bannister, N., Hess, T.M., Gowing, D. J.G., Leeds-Harrison, P. B., Vivash, R., Wade, M. (2004) Integrated Washlands for Flood Defence and Biodiversity, Report to English Nature and Defra. English Nature Research Report Series No. 598. Peterborough: English Nature

• Morris, J. and Brewin, P. (2013) Impact of seasonal flooding on agriculture: the spring 2012 floods in Somerset, England. Journal of Flood Risk Management. DOI10.1111/jfr3.12041

• Morris, J. Beedell, J, and Hess, T.M. (2014) Mobilising flood risk management services from rural land: principles and practice. Journal of Flood Risk Management. DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12110

• Morris, J., Posthumus, H., Hess T.M., Gowing, D.J.G. and Rouquette, J.R. (2009) Watery land: the management of lowland floodplains in England. In Winter, M. and Lobley, M. (eds.) What is Land For? The Food, Fuel and Climate Change Debate. Earthscan. pp.320. ISBN 9781844077205.

• Penning-Rowsell, E., Priest, S., Parker, D., Morris, J., Tunstall, S., Viavattene, C., Chatterton, J. and Owen D. (2013) Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management:A Manual for Economic Appraisal, Routledge, Abingdon, Oxford (Chapter 9 Agriculture)

• Pivot J.M., Martin P. Farms adaptation to changes in flood risk: a management approach. Journal of Hydrology, 267(1-2), 12-25, 2002.

• Posthumus H., Rouquette, J.R., Morris, J., Gowing, D.J.G., Hess T.M.. (2010) A framework for the assessment of ecosystem goods and services; a case study on lowland floodplains in England. Ecological Economics, 65, 151-1523

• Posthumus, H., Morris, J., Hess, T.M., Neville, D., Phillips, E. and Baylis, A. (2009). Impacts of the summer 2007 floods on agriculture in England. Journal of Flood Risk Management. 2009:1-8.

• Rouquette, J.R., Posthumus, H., Morris, J., Hess, T. M., Dawson, Q.L., and Gowing, D. J. G. 2011. Synergies and trade-offs in the management of lowland rural floodplains: An ecosystem services approach. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56:8, 1566-1581

• Rouquette, J.R., Posthumus, H.,Gowing, D.J.G., Tucker, G., Dawson, Hess, T.M and Morris, J. (2009) Valuing nature conservation interests on agricultural floodplains. J. Applied Ecology. 46, 2, 289-296

• Thorne, C., Evans, E. and Penning-Rowsell, E . (eds) (2006). Future Flooding and Coastal Erosion Risks. London: Thomas Telford