agricultural trade peter kuperis senior trade policy analyst alberta agriculture and food (780) 415...
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AGRICULTURAL TRADEAGRICULTURAL TRADE
Peter Kuperis
Senior Trade Policy Analyst
Alberta Agriculture and Food
(780) 415 –8608
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ARCHITECTURE OF TRADEARCHITECTURE OF TRADE
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OVERVIEWOVERVIEW
Trade is the exchange of goods and services across national borders
Trade operates at three different levels– Global– Regional/bilateral– Internal
Trade agreements set the rules of trade between two or more jurisdictions
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OVERVIEWOVERVIEW
Countries regulate trade through:– Tariffs (tax on imports)– Quotas (quantity or value limits)– Regulations (health, packaging,consumer
protection)– Export taxes – And other methods
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WTOWTO
Global trade is governed through the World Trade Organization (WTO)– 150 members– Began as GATT – General Agreement on
Tariffs and Trade– Objective is to liberalize trade by reducing
tariffs and eliminating subsidies– Agriculture was added to global trade rules in
1994
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WTOWTO
WTO gives its members a forum for settling disputes
Can challenge another country’s subsidy or regulations through dispute settlement
E.g. EU beef hormone ban, US cotton, Canada dairy
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WTOWTO
WTO Agreement on Agriculture– Contains tariff reduction commitments by
member countries 34% average reduction was agreed to in 1994
– Defines 3 types of subsidies – amber, blue, green
– Limits export subsidies and gradually reduces them
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WTOWTO
Amber– Most trade and production distorting– Amount of spending on amber programs is
limited U.S. yearly limit is US$19.1 billion Canada’s limit is $4.3 billion
– Example – pay farmers $3/bu of wheat Incentive to grow wheat regardless of price and
other market conditions
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WTOWTO
Blue– aka “the blue box”– Trade and production distorting programs BUT
limits are placed on production– e.g. per head payment on cattle but number of
cattle per acre is limited– Currently have no limits on blue box spending – “Transition mechanism” away from amber
programs
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WTOWTO
Green– aka “Green box”– Least trade and production distorting– Payments cannot be based on current prices or
production levels– e.g. income support payments, environmental
programs, research, infrastructure – No limits on spending
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WTOWTO
Export subsidies– Payments contingent on export– Most trade distorting type of subsidy– E.g. EU “export refunds”
Pays farmer difference between price received for product exported and the domestic price
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WTOWTO
Also have rules on regulations to protect animal, plant and human health (SPS)
Rules on use of technical barriers to trade (TBT) – e.g. labelling, standards, packaging, grading)
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WTOWTO
New round of negotiations is underwayDoha Round
– Launched in Doha, Qatar in Nov 2001– Focused on 3 pillars – Market access, Domestic
support, Export competition– Negotiations are still going on and agriculture
is one of the most difficult areas– Hope to conclude negotiations in 2008
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WTOWTO
Market access– Tariffs, tariff rate quotas, special safeguards– Have agreement to reduce highest tariffs the
most (tiered formula)– Members will be able to designate a certain
number of products as “sensitive” and make smaller tariff reductions
– Tighter rules on use of safeguards
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WTOWTO
Domestic support– Large reductions in amber spending under
negotiation US limit could go from US$19.1 billion to US$7.4
billion Canada from $4.3 billion to about $2 billion
– Cap on blue box payments– No substantial change to green
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WTOWTO
Export Competition– Export subsidies, export credits, food aid, state
trading enterprises– Elimination of all export subsidies by 2013– Tighter rules on export credits and food aid– Rules on operation of state trading enterprises
(e.g Canadian Wheat Board)
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WTOWTO
Advantages of WTO– Global – access to many markets– Deals with subsidies (“level playing field”)– Effective dispute settlement mechanism
Disadvantages of WTO– Long, slow negotiations– Slow, expensive dispute settlement
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Bilateral/RegionalBilateral/Regional
Agreements between two or more countries Bilateral agreements address market access but
usually don’t deal with subsidies Currently there ar380 bilateral agreements,
expected to grow to 400 by 2010 Canada has bilateral agreements with many
countries:– NAFTA (US, Mexico)– Israel
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Bilateral/RegionalBilateral/Regional
Canada has agreements (cont’d):– Costa Rica– European Free Trade Association (Norway,
Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Iceland)– Chile
Canada has/is negotiating with– Dominican Republic & CAFTA (Honduras, Nicaragua,
El Salvador, Guatemala)– Peru. Columbia– South Korea
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Bilateral/RegionalBilateral/Regional
Canada has/is negotiating with (cont’d):– Singapore– CARICOM (Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas,
Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Montserrat, Saint Lucia, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago
– Jordan
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Bilateral/RegionalBilateral/Regional
Bilateral agreements usually govern:– Tariffs– Regulations– Rules of Origin
Excellent tool for gaining market access but don’t bring a “level playing field”
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Bilateral/RegionalBilateral/Regional
NAFTA has been a highly successful trade agreement.– Since 1994 the total value of Canada-US-
Mexico trade grew to US$ 845 billion in 2006 – Total Canada-US trade grew from US$199
billion in 1994 to US$509 billion in 2006– Alberta ag exports to US grew from $1.9 billion
in 1995 to $2.6 billion in 2006.
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Bilateral/RegionalBilateral/Regional
Advantages of Bilateral agreements– Faster, simpler to negotiate– Market access
Disadvantages– Don’t address subsidies– Often have poor dispute settlement mechanisms
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Bilateral/RegionalBilateral/Regional
What should be priority countries for bilateral trade agreements?
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INTERNAL TRADEINTERNAL TRADE
Agreements governing trade within a country Canada has the Agreement on Internal Trade
(AIT)– July 1, 1995– Governs trade in many areas including agriculture– Primarily deals with Provincial and Federal regulations– Each sector has its own Chapter – its own rules– Dispute settlement – no penalties for failure to comply
Quebec margarine
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INTERNAL TRADEINTERNAL TRADE
AIT– Currently under review
Alberta has 2 more inter-provincial trade agreements– Trade Enhancement Agreement on Agriculture
BC, Alta, Sask, Manitoba, PEI, Yukon Expands agricultural trade beyond AIT
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INTERNAL TRADEINTERNAL TRADE
Alberta agreements (cont’d)– Alberta-BC Trade Investment and Labour
Mobility Agreement (TILMA) April 1, 2007, transition to April 1, 2009 Governs trade in all sectors, one set of rules for all
sectors Effective dispute settlement with monetary penalties
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Alberta’s Trade ObjectivesAlberta’s Trade Objectives
Trade Liberalization– Maximum possible market access– Lowest possible levels of trade-distorting
support– Elimination of export subsidies
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THE DEVIL’S DETAILSTHE DEVIL’S DETAILS
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WTO DisputesWTO Disputes
EU beef hormone ban (SPS)– Continued non-compliance and retaliation
Canada dairy (Export subsidies)– Removed Canada’s ability to export dairy
productsCanadian Wheat Board (Subsidies)US corn subsidies
– Alleges US has exceeded its amber limits
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TariffsTariffs
Tariff parity between Canola and soybeansHigh tariffs and restrictive TRQ’s for beef
and porkTariff escalation
– Tariff on processed product significantly higher than on raw material
– E.g. tariff on canola seed – 10%, canola meal – 25%, canola oil – 80%
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Regulatory BarriersRegulatory Barriers
Beef market access post-BSEPotato cyst nematode
– US, Mexico
Ractopamine residues in pork– China, Taiwan
EU regime for licensing genetically modified organisms
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Trade in Major CommoditiesTrade in Major Commodities
Wheat– Canada had exports of $ 4.7 billion in 2007– Top 5 markets in 2007 were the US, Indonesia,
Japan, Mexico and Iraq
Canola– Canada exported $ 2.26 billion in 2007– Top 5 markets: Japan, Mexico, China, US,
Pakistan
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Trade in Major CommoditiesTrade in Major Commodities
Barley– Exports of $ 765 million in 2007– Top markets were: Saudi Arabia, US, China,
Japan, Columbia – $315 million of this total was malt barley– Top malt markets were: US, Japan, Brazil,
Venezuela, South Korea
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Trade in Major CommoditiesTrade in Major Commodities
Fresh and frozen pork– Exports of $ 2.7 billion in 2007– Top 5 markets: US, Japan, Australia, South
Korea, Russia
Fresh and Frozen beef– Exports of $ 1.2 billion in 2007– Top 5 markets: US, Mexico, Hong Kong,
Japan, Macau
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Trade in Major CommoditiesTrade in Major Commodities
Dairy– Exports of $232 million in 2007– Top 5 markets: US, UK, Egypt, South Korea,
Mexico
Poultry meat– Exports of $ 238 million in 2007– Top 5 markets: US, Hong Kong, South Africa,
Philippines, Macedonia
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Trade in Major CommoditiesTrade in Major Commodities
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Trade in Major CommoditiesTrade in Major Commodities
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Case Study: Beef and CattleCase Study: Beef and Cattle
In 2002 beef exports were $ 2.2 billion and exports of cattle were $ 1.8 billion
In 2003 BSE was found in CanadaVirtually all borders closed to Canadian
cattle and beef overnightDevastating impact on beef and cattle
industry
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Case Study: Beef and CattleCase Study: Beef and Cattle
US also found BSE in late 2003 and experienced the same border closures
Due to a common policy of “one case and you’re out”
US and Canada began negotiating for renewed access to markets
Worked with other major beef exporting nations to get a new set of World Animal Health Organization (OIE) guidelines
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Case Study: Beef and CattleCase Study: Beef and Cattle
New OIE guidelines say that if a country has proper BSE safeguards in place then all beef products are safe for trade
Canada has slowly regained access to major beef markets:– US restored access in stages:
Boneless UTM in August 2003 All UTM and live UTM cattle in July 2005
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Case Study: Beef and CattleCase Study: Beef and Cattle
US Access (cont’d)– November 19, 2007 - Restored access for all
cattle born after March 1, 1999 for any purpose– Effectively restores almost all of former trade
with US
Mexico– UTM beef and dairy breeding cattle under 30
months of age
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Case Study: Beef and CattleCase Study: Beef and Cattle
Japan– Canada has access for boneless beef from
animals under 21 months of ageSouth Korea
– No access for beef or live cattle– Negotiations very slow and difficult
China– No access for beef or live cattle
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Case Study: Beef and CattleCase Study: Beef and Cattle
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Case Study: Beef and CattleCase Study: Beef and Cattle
Macau– All beef
Hong Kong– Boneless UTM
Taiwan– Boneless UTM
Cuba– Open to all beef and cattle
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Case Study: Beef and CattleCase Study: Beef and Cattle
Negotiating approaches– US – Access according to OIE and nothing less– Canada – has taken a similar approach but less
aggressively– Both countries accepted staged access in the
past
What to do with China and South Korea?
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Case Study: Beef and CattleCase Study: Beef and Cattle
Other market access barriers for beef– EU hormone ban– High tariffs and a safeguard in Japan– Likely to be designated as a sensitive product
by many countries
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Case Study: CanolaCase Study: Canola
In some markets soybeans are charged a lower tariff than canola– China charges a tariff of 9% on canola and 3%
on soybeans (temporarily reduced to 1%)
Canola also faces tariff escalation– Japan:canola seed no tariff
canola oil 10.90 yen/kg - 13.20 yen/kg
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Case Study: CanolaCase Study: Canola
Tariff escalation (cont’d)– Korea: canola seed 10% refined canola oil 30%
soybean oil 5.4%
– Taiwan : canola seed 0 – 9% canola oil 4.3% - 15% soybean oil 5% - 8%
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Case Study: CanolaCase Study: Canola
How to address tariff parity?How to address tariff escalation?How to address regulatory barriers?
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Case Study: CanolaCase Study: Canola
Other canola access issues– EU regulations on genetically modified
organisms– Maximum residue limits on herbicides and
pesticides– Quebec bans on coloured margarine and dairy
blends
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““New Frontiers” of TradeNew Frontiers” of Trade
Genetically modified organismsBiofuels - An agricultural product or an
industrial product?Who matters – rising importance of China,
India and other emerging economiesProduction processes – organic, naturalGeographic indicators – champagne,
parmesan
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ConclusionsConclusions
Trade operates on three levels:– Global, bilateral, internal– Global deal is best way to deal with subsidies– Bilaterals focus on market access– Internal trade primarily about regulations
Alberta government favours maximum possible trade liberalization
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CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS
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ConclusionsConclusions
Trade can be very complicated– Combinations of tariffs, regulations and other
barriersSmall, open economies like Canada benefit
from a rules-based trading system– Don’t have economic power to force borders
open– Don’t have large enough population to be a
priority for other nations
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ConclusionsConclusions
Humans are very creative– As traditional barriers come down (e.g. tariffs)
new ones are created– New products and processes create demand for
new regulations and trade rules (e.g. biofuels)
Increasing trade also creates debates within a country– Winners and losers