Dr P.S. Goodman, Transport Operations Research Group, Newcastle University, 8th November 2016

Air Pollution and the UN Sustainable Development Goals

Historical Air Pollution

Great Smog of London, 1952

Burning of Coal – Sulphur Dioxide

Anti-cyclone over London

Lasted 5 days

4,000 to 12,000 deaths estimated

Mortality from bronchitis and pneumonia increased >7 fold

Modern Air Pollution

Increase in Road Traffic ~ 20 years

Increase in the use of diesel

Increase in Oxides of Nitrogen –Photochemical Smog

Increase in Road Traffic – year-on-year

Problem exacerbated by other issues –e.g. electricity production and domestic fuels

Focus on Fine Particulate Matter

Recognition of the Problem

UN Sustainable Development Goals

• 17 Primary Development Goals• Almost all will impact on air quality – burning fuels• Only 2 sub-goals actually mention air quality

explicitly…

• 3.9 (Health): By 2030, substantially reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water and soil pollution and contamination

• 11.6 (Cities) By 2030, reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, including by paying special attention to air quality and municipal and other waste management

Indicators

3.9.1 Mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution11.6.2. Annual mean levels of fine particulate matter (i.e. PM2.5 and PM10 in cities)

Other indirect mentions:9.4 (Industry) – Clean and environmentally sound technologies, 11.2 (Cities) – Sustainable Transport Systems, 13.2 (Climate) – Integration of climate change measures into policy

Spatial Distribution of (Urban) Air Pollution

Source: WHO / UN

Spatial Distribution of NO2

Source: KNMI / ESA

Solutions: Developed World

• Technology based –• Vehicle emissions standards – de-NOx and PM Filters

• Only go so far – no improvement in NOx for some diesel vehicles in the past decade

• ‘Cycle beating’ and compliance

• ‘Clean Air’ and ‘Low Emission’ Zones• Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems• Transition to ‘low-carbon vehicles’

• Actually need behavioural change…

Solutions : Developing World

• Exposure: Indoor vs. Outdoor• Use of unclean fuels in the home

• Disproportionate burden on women and children

• Transport?• Clean modes in the West may be ‘unclean’ elsewhere

• Try to avoid ‘car culture’ to start with?• Holistic approaches needed: integration with

climate change, health and economic development…

Future Work : CADTIME

Clean Air for Delhi Through Interventions, Mitigations and Engagement

Looking at development and strategies for the next 35 years Modelling + Stakeholder Engagement (Delphi) process

NERC / MOES funded – just under £1 million : Newcastle University, University of the West of England, IIT Madras, IIT Bombay, CRRI, NEERI, Dr Anil Namdeo (PI)

Part of a programme of 5 projects on Air Pollution and Human Health targeting Delhi.

Contacts

Transport Operations Research Group (TORG)3rd Floor, Devonshire Building