alberta 2050, the exponential province - growing the north

Alberta 2050 The Exponential Province

www.nikolasbadminton.com

Alberta

4.2m Albertans

6.2m Albertans by 2041

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/alberta/calgary+area+projected+million+2041+graphic/10015881/story.html

“Alberta's economy was one of the strongest in the world, supported by the burgeoning petroleum industry and to a lesser extent,

agriculture and technology. In 2013 Alberta's per capita GDP exceeded that of

the United States, Norway, or Switzerland.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta#Economy

“The Fraser Institute states that Alberta also has very high levels of economic freedom and rates Alberta as the freest economy in Canada, and the second freest economy

amongst US states and Canadian provinces.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta#Economy

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-time-for-alberta-to-get-off-the-resource-rollercoaster-is-now/

“If the surging economy faltered, however, there could be a major population impact. Simply a downturn in the economy and the

oilpatch, it could be a horror show. ”

Dave Odynak (University of Alberta Population Research Laboratory)



But, there is huge potential for a change in what will make Alberta prosperous into

the future.

Technology Influence

More people on earth have access to cell phones than toilets.

Out of the world's estimated 7 billion people, 6 billion have access to mobile phones.

Source: United Nations, 2015

2.87bn smart phones by 2020.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/330695/number-of-smartphone-users-worldwide/

“The amount of data on the planet is set to grow 10-fold in the next six years to 2020 from around 4.4 zettabytes to 44ZB.”

http://www.computerweekly.com/news/2240217788/Data-set-to-grow-10-fold-by-2020-as-internet-of-things-takes-off

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-largest-companies-market-cap-15-years/

Less risky

More $$$

Limitless application of imagination


Why is this happening?

Law of accelerating returns

Every generation of technology stands on the shoulders of the last generation of technology

accelerating it’s development and growth exponentially.

Electrification was the trigger point for this growth

Workforce Changes

https://www.wired.com/2017/02/libratus/

"AI is the new electricity”

Andrew NG, Chief Scientist, Baidu

“42% of Canadian jobs at high risk of being affected by

automation.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/automation-job-brookfield-1.3636253


Retail salesperson. Administrative assistant. Food counter attendant.

Cashier. Transport truck driver.



Mining companies are rolling out autonomous trucks, drills, and trains, which will boost

efficiency but also reduce the need for human employees.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603170/mining-24-hours-a-day-with-robots/


Canadian ContentDigital Government

Economics OpportunitiesProtecting CanadiansConnecting Canadians

Changing Consumption

http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/

But, is this disruption real?

500K cars per year by 2020.

Ford’s roadmap for disruption (2020 / 2021) •A Fully electric small SUV with an estimated range of at least

300 miles. •A hybrid version of the F-150 pickup and Mustang •A high-volume autonomous vehicle designed for commercial

ride hailing or ride sharing. •A Transit Custom plug-in hybrid available in 2019 in Europe. •Two new, pursuit-rated hybrid police vehicles

https://electrek.co/2017/01/03/ford-new-electric-cars/

“Our investments and expanding lineup reflect our view that global offerings of electrified vehicles will exceed gasoline-

powered vehicles within the next 15 years.”

https://electrek.co/2017/01/03/ford-new-electric-cars/

In September 2016, 28.8% of new car sales (in Norway) were plug-in electric vehicles and

all-electric cars had 19.0% market share.

It’s 10x what most countries are doing these days thanks to EV incentives like the 25% VAT

tax exemption.https://electrek.co/2017/02/15/norway-electric-vehicle-market-share-record/##It%E2%80%99s+10+times+what+most+countries+are+doing+these+days+thanks+to+EV+incentives+like+the+25%25+VAT+tax+exemption

100% of new cars in Norway will be EVs by 2025.

https://thinkprogress.org/norway-aims-to-end-sales-of-fuel-burning-car-by-2025-as-ev-market-soars-edeac854f1e#.o7rsmmsc4

https://thinkprogress.org/norway-aims-to-end-sales-of-fuel-burning-car-by-2025-as-ev-market-soars-edeac854f1e#.o7rsmmsc4

2025 to 2030 will usher in wide legislation across many countries on selling only zero-

emission vehicles.

https://electrek.co/2016/12/05/john-deere-electric-tractor-prototype/

Alaska Airlines is using a 20% blend of renewable alcohol-to-jet biofuel.

http://www.bidsalaska.com/business-news/1.126101-alaska-airlines-flies-on-worlds-first-cornbased-jet-fuel.html

The renewable fuel is made from sustainable corn grown and harvested by farmers who incorporate sustainable best

practices from seed to harvest.

Alberta 2050 The Opportunity

We have some economic choices in what we can do next.

The Renewable Economy

“At the 7% growth rate for geothermal and biomass generation worldwide, the

amount of electricity from this category will double every ten years. If this growth rate remains steady, geothermal and biomass

will generate 1,000 TWh by 2025.”


Which is great but it doesn’t happen overnight. Or does it?

Five of the world’s six largest solar-module manufacturing firms.

The largest wind-turbine manufacturer.

The world’s largest lithium ion manufacturer.

The world’s largest electricity utility.

http://breakingenergy.com/2015/05/11/thin-film-solar-cell-industry-in-transition-knockout-phase-is-over-profitability-and-vertical-integration-next/

http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/dubai-firm-to-create-one-of-worlds-largest-solar-glass-facades-at-danish-school

http://energy.mit.edu/news/transparent-solar-cells/

http://www.popsci.com/black-silicon-solar-cells-just-hit-record-what-are-they-anyways

"We actually did the calculations to figure out what it would take to transition the whole world to sustainable energy...

and you'd need 100 gigafactories.”

Elon Musk in ‘After the Flood’http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2016/10/30/how-tesla-and-elon-musk-could-save-the-world-with-gigafactories/#629ed15d3727

“The solar and wind industries are each creating jobs at a rate 12 times faster than

that of the rest of the U.S. economy.”

http://fortune.com/2017/01/27/solar-wind-renewable-jobs/

Alberta's Electricity Generation - 2015

http://www.energy.alberta.ca/electricity/682.asp

Alberta's Electricity Generation - 2015

http://www.energy.alberta.ca/electricity/682.asp

Solar?

300+ days of sunshine per year.

https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Canada/Alberta/sunshine-annual-average.php

“New investments [in solar in Canada] dropped 46% in 2016, bringing it to the lowest its been in a decade, according to

data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/02/07/solar-power_n_14636622.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/02/07/solar-power_n_14636622.html

The Circular Economy

A more circular economy will: •Create opportunities for growth •Reduce waste •Drive greater resource productivity

•Deliver a more competitive economy.

Sustainable production

Operations optimization and R&D

Innovative waste management

Renewables and biomass research and R&D

Innovative waste management

Renewables and biomass research & R&D

Operations optimization & R&D

Sustainable production

Startups

“A new BDC survey has found confidence in the economy and investment intention is

rebounding in Alberta.”

http://globalnews.ca/news/3184623/alberta-tech-sector-leads-the-way-as-economy-rebounds-bdc-study/

http://globalnews.ca/news/3184623/alberta-tech-sector-leads-the-way-as-economy-rebounds-bdc-study/

“Alberta plans to offer up to $90 million in tax credits for investments in small

businesses in the technology and tourism sectors.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-tax-credits-tech-tourism-1.3784921


“The 30% tax credit would be offered over the next three years for investments in companies involved in proprietary technology, interactive

digital media development, video post-production, digital animation or tourism.”



http://www.tecedmonton.com/tec-innovation-district-open-for-business/

http://www.tecedmonton.com/tec-innovation-district-open-for-business/

47 Industrial Technology Advisors work in NRC-IRAP Prairies. Expertise spans a range of key industrial sectors and technologies such as:

•Advanced Chemistry and Materials •Advanced Manufacturing •Biotechnology and Bioprocessing •Construction •Energy •Environmental Technologies •Food and Agricultural sciences •Health-care and Pharmaceuticals •Information Technology, Electronics and

Telecommunications •Transportation

http://www.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/eng/irap/across_canada/prairies.html

The Sharing Economy

In the next 10 years PwC predicts the Collaborative Economy will grow from

$15bn to $335bn revenue.

http://www.njpen.com/zipcar-founder-talks-sharing-economy-climate-change-in-haddonfield-visit/

http://www.njpen.com/zipcar-founder-talks-sharing-economy-climate-change-in-haddonfield-visit/

Big changes could lead to some tough times though, right?

Universal Basic Income

Dauphin, MB

Mincome

“A Basic Annual Income would be an efficient way of making sure that all Canadians have a reasonable and secure income, including

those who are working.”

http://cwf.ca/news/blog/basic-income-idea-wins-backing-of-alberta-mayors/

“A single adult would receive an annual basic income of $16,989, almost double the $8,472 max payment under the province’s

current welfare program”

https://qz.com/914247/canada-is-betting-on-a-universal-basic-income-to-help-cities-gutted-by-manufacturing-job-loss/

Alberta 2050 A vision…

The greatest natural resources we will have in Alberta will be the people we have living here, the renewables energy we

harvest, and the intellectual property we generate.

We will be bound by a purpose. To live a great life, and to help everyone else in

Canada, and the World also live like that.

We will be a province with an economy built on innovation across a number of areas including renewables, Energy

Storage, Data Infrastructure, healthcare, smart cities, quantum computing etc.

What I hope is that Alberta becomes an ‘exponential province’ that acts as a

beacon to the rest of Canada, and the world.

Grande Prairie

Alberta-focused.

Innovation hub for responsible oil and gas extraction, sustainable natural resources, renewable energy generation, and storage R&D.

Solar power generation and distribution.

Data centre operations Canadian and International companies.

Edmonton

Canada-focused.

A green and cultural city with zero environmental impact.

Educational excellence across multiple disciplines.

Technology innovation centres with International links.

Programmable city - Internet of Things, data, renewables, and electrical infrastructure.

Calgary

Canada-focused.

A green and cultural city with zero environmental impact.

Educational excellence across multiple disciplines.

Technology innovation centres with International links.

Programmable city - Internet of Things, data, renewables, and electrical infrastructure.

Alberta

A culture of greater individual and business awareness regarding the ecosystem that drives the Albertan economy from now into the future.

A culture of reduced reliance on natural resources, technology, sustainable natural resources, and renewables development, deployment, and operations.

Pluralism

Community

Responsibility

Ethics

2017 marks the start of golden era in energy & technology.

With technological growth we will need natural resources more than ever and we

will demand that extraction and processing will be as sustainable, ethical and clean as

possible.

Together we can create the future.

Thank You.

Alberta 2050 The Exponential Province

www.nikolasbadminton.com