all forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of december 2005. entergy system strategic...
TRANSCRIPT
All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Entergy System Strategic Supply Resource PlanPlan Description
(For the planning period 2006 – 2015)
Appendix H
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Overview
1. Planning Framework
2. Strategic Overview
3. Current Portfolio
4. Load Forecast
5. Retirement Strategy
6. Overview of Plan for 2006 – 2015
Contents
This document describes the Entergy System’s (utility) Strategic Supply Resource Plan (SSRP). As described in this document, the SSRP is based on principles and planning objectives adopted by the Operating Committee and provides a long-term resource strategy that will transform the Entergy System’s generation portfolio.
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Supply Objectives
Part 1 – Planning Framework
Risk Mitigation – Supply Diversity – Mitigate the exposure to major supply disruptions that could occur from concentrated or systematic risks, for example outages of a single generation facility.
The supply needs that determine the resource requirements of the Operating Companies are driven by six basic resource supply objectives:
Provide adequate resources to meet customer peak demands with adequate reliability.
Provide low cost base load resources to serve base load requirements (the firm load level that is expected to be exceeded for at least 85% of all hours per year).
Reliability
Provide efficient, dispatchable load following resources to serve the time varying load shape levels that are above the base load requirement load levels.
Provide a generation portfolio that is more efficient and avoids an over-reliance on aging resources.
Mitigate the exposure to price volatility associated with uncertainties in fuel and purchased power costs.
Production Cost – Base Load Supply Requirements
Risk Mitigation – Supply Diversity
Production Cost – Load Following Supply
Requirements
Generation Portfolio Enhancement
Risk Mitigation – Price Stability
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Planning Horizon
The SSRP addresses a long-term planning horizon. Other processes address tactical and annual planning supply needs.
Part 1 – Planning Framework
Identifies resources needed and expected operating roles for the upcoming (or current) operating year.
Annual Planning Process
Addresses long-term planning horizon. Provides indicative direction for needs over a ten year horizon. Specific resource timing and resource participation will be determined at the time of resource commitment.SSRP
Identifies resources needed and expected operating roles for each resource for the forthcoming three year business planning period.
Tactical Planning Process
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Steps in Determining Supply Resource Needs
Part 1 – Planning Framework
Determine the type of generation needed by the System to serve load shapes at the lowest reasonable cost given current expectations and supply options.
MIX
TYPE
2.
– Total resource requirements for 2006 exceed long-term controlled resources by over 2000 MWs. Needs are increasing with load growth.
– To solely address peak period reliability, resource needs could be met by annual or seasonal purchases of peaking/reserve capacity.
Determine portfolio mix of generation resources that is consistent with planning objectives and practical constraints.
Determine the amount of capacity needed by the System to meet peak period reliability.
– CCGT or solid fuel resources needed to address base load supply requirements.
– Additional CCGT and CT resources are needed to serve load-following requirements.
– Power Purchase Strategy guides amount of power purchase and mix of power purchase products
– Long-term LOU resource decisions (timing, fuel type, location, OPCO participation)
AMOUNT
3.
1.
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Load shape determines functional requirements.
≥ 50 % of hours< 85% of hours
≥ 85% of hours
Load Shape
Generation Capacity Requirements
Hours
MW
Reserve
High Capacity Factor Load-Following
BaseLoad
Low Capacity Factor Load-Following
Load-following represents 50% of capacity, but only approximately 20% of energy.
Baseload energy is 80% of total system supply.
> 0% of hours< 50% of hours
Resource plans consider load shapes in determining the generation requirements needed for each generation supply role.
Part 1 – Planning Framework
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Principles and Process for Participation Decisions
– Resource acquisitions during the operating year are generally for system reliability or production cost benefits.
– Because the Annual Plan provides for adequate resources to meet the expected system needs, additional resources acquired during the operational year generally will be shared based on responsibility ratio.
Part 1 – Planning Framework
Process
Overall Guiding Principles
Participation in Purchased Power in Annual Supply Plan
Participation in Power for System Needs Acquired During Operating Year
Long-term Resource Participation Decisions
Each operating company should support a sufficient amount of generation for each supply role used to serve its load shape.
Resource participation decisions for new resources should consider whether each operating company is supporting capability that can be expected to be available for coordinated economic dispatch sufficient to meet its peak load plus provide a reserve of at least 10% (capability does not include MSS-1 reserves).
– Resource participation decisions are made at time of the commitment to the resource.
– Preliminary (for planning purposes and subject to change) projected resource participation for future resources that are included in the SSRP are made at the time the resource plan is approved.
– The Operating Committee determines participation in new resources considering each Operating Company’s need for the new resource’s expected supply role.
– Resource participation decisions are made at the time of the commitment to the resource.
– The Operating Committee can specifically assign resources to address the specific needs of the operating companies.
– After specific resource participation decisions are made, additional resources are allocated based on factors established by the Operating Committee.
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Factors in Operating Company Participation
Part 1 – Planning Framework
Supply Risks
Relative Total
Production CostPeak Load
+10% Reserve Capacity
Deficit
Baseload Capacity
Deficit
Load-Following Resource Capacity
Deficit
Responsibility Ratio
Resource participation also will consider supply resource diversity, seeking to reduce the reliability and price risks resulting from and Operating Company’s exposure to single contingency generation outages or from its exposure to generation supplied by one fuel type.
Long-term total production cost trends for each Operating Company considering both the overall production costs and the component production costs for each major supply role.
Each Operating Company’s resource capability position with regard to a standard seeking to assure that each Operating Company supports its proportionate share of the resources that are expected to be used in the coordinated dispatch in the System’s annual operating plan. The standard seeks to determine participation in new resources by considering those companies who have a “Peak Load +10% Reserve Capacity Deficit,” based upon the Operating Company’s aggregate existing resources (excluding MSS-1 purchases) that are less than its peak load plus a minimum reserve level of 10%.
In determining the participation in new base load resources, each Operating Company’s resource position with regard to having a sufficient base load generation resources to serve its base load requirements. Participation in new base load resources would consider the “Baseload Capacity Deficit” defined as the shortfall in base load generation required to serve the firm load level that is expected for greater than 85% of annual hours.
In determining the participation in new load-following resources, each Operating Company’s resource position with regard to having sufficient load-following resources to serve its load requirements. Participation in new load-following resources would consider the amount of each Operating Company’s CCGT equivalent load-following resources or other load-following resources that are expected to be regularly utilized in the system’s coordinated dispatch to serve the System’s load following requirements.
After each Operating Company has attained its proportionate share of the System’s total resources and its appropriate share of each type of generation resource required for the various supply roles, participation in any additional resources acquired for System purposes will be allocated on responsibility ratio.
Operating company participation decisions consider the following factors.
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Part 2 – Strategic Overview
Long-Term
Resource Strategy
Strategic Initiatives
Long-term Controlled Resource Strategy
Purchased Power
Strategy
Dependence on purchased power required to meet reliability requirements should not exceed amounts that could practically be built and financed within a three to five year periods.
Purchases for economic reasons are not limited. Implement a “portfolio approach” limited-term purchase power
procurement program.– “Laddering” of contract expiration dates.– Mix of supply roles.
CCGT resources are anticipated for all OPCOs and each planning region to address load following needs.
Several OPCOs will require additional CCGT or solid fuel LOU resources to address long-term base load supply needs.
Near term LOU resources are expected to be provided primarily from resources that are already operational or nearly complete
Develop self-supply “options” that could be implemented within normal construction periods, if necessary, to limit exposure to power purchases or address potential long-term reliability issues within particular locations such as Amite South or WOTAB.
The SSRP calls for transforming the Entergy System’s generation portfolio over the upcoming ten-year planning period through two broad initiatives:
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Purchase Power Strategy Overview
Dependence on purchased power required to meet reliability requirements should not exceed amounts that could practically be built and financed within a three to five year period.
─ Excludes long-term controlled (LOU) capacity.─ Purchases for economic reasons are not limited.
Implement a “portfolio approach” limited-term purchase power procurement program.
─ Mix of short-term products with varying contract durations resulting in a “laddering” of contract expiration dates (multi-year contracts expire at various times over three year period.)
─ Mix of products that support needs for base load and load following supply roles.
Part 2 – Strategic Overview
Strategic Objectives
The System’s purchase power strategy seeks to accomplish the following strategic objectives:
Maintain a diversified portfolio of purchased power contracts.
Provide a “self controlled” alternative supply strategy for the provision of the life-of-unit resources that can be readily compared to other opportunities to acquire long-term resources.
Maintain an on-going RFP process to identify potential supply alternatives for each generation supply role.
Limit exposure to short and mid-term purchased power price uncertainty.
Strategy
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Anticipated Reliance on Purchase Power
A significant portion of the resources in the plan will be provided by short-term purchases. Depending on the particular year in the SSRP, the System expects to acquire approximately 800 to 1600 megawatts (MW) of resources from short-term power purchases consisting of a variety of products. Each year the System expects to purchase several hundred MW of dispatchable load-following generation unit capacity from combined cycle gas turbine (“CCGT”) or combustion turbine (“CT”) generators, pursuant to multi-year unit capacity purchase agreements (“MUCPAs” or “MUCCOs”) with terms of one to three years. In addition to multi-year unit capacity purchases, the System expects to make seasonal and annual power purchases utilizing products such as call options, firm block-energy or liquidated damages products, or other purchased power resources through the use of multiple procurement processes including formal Requests for Proposals (“RFPs”).
Part 2 – Strategic Overview
Purchase Power Products Include
• Long-term (life-of-unit) resources including PPAs and acquisitions
• Limited-term products (one to three years)
• Seasonal products
• Monthly RFP purchases
• Weekly RFP purchases
• Daily purchases
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Energy Mix reflects reliance on purchase power.
Reliance on purchased power is reflected
in the changing energy mix over recent years.
2005 Supply Mix (% of total energy)
Nuclear33%
Coal12%
Gas/Oil20%
Purchases35%
Hydro0%
Part 2 – Strategic Overview
2000 Supply Mix (% of total energy)
Nuclear31%
Coal12%
Gas/Oil37%
Purchases20%
Hydro0%
GWH 2000 2005Nuclear 37,059 38,432 Coal 14,799 13,502 Gas/Oil 43,073 23,049 Purchases 24,188 39,718 Hydro 133 97 Total 119,252 114,799
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Changing Energy Sources
6 Year TrendGeneration by Source and Purchased Pow er
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
GW
H
Nuclear
Coal
Gas/Oil
Purchases
Part 2 – Strategic Overview
GWH 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Nuclear 37,059 41,038 40,917 40,628 41,710 38,432 Coal 14,799 14,586 13,743 14,057 15,359 13,502 Gas/Oil 43,073 38,873 35,195 22,797 22,619 23,049 Purchases 24,188 19,466 27,318 37,687 37,967 39,718 Hydro 133 154 164 115 151 97 Total 119,252 114,117 117,337 115,284 117,806 114,799
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Self-supply Options
In order to mitigate the exposure of the Operating Companies to purchase power supply risks and cost volatility, the System plans to identify and evaluate real executable resource proposals that would allow for the possibility to construct , if needed and economically justified, new capacity through self-build options
– Such self-supply options would be executable within a three to five year window.
– These self-build options include participation in new CCGT/cogeneration capacity, unit repowering and/or upgrades at existing generation sites.
Self-supply options will be compared against market alternatives that provide comparable functionality.
Part 2 – Strategic Overview
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Portfolio Mix for Long-term Resource Additions
The life-of-unit (LOU) resources, whether PPA or acquisition, that will be added over the ten-year planning horizon are expected to consist primarily of CCGT and solid fuel resources.
– CCGT resources are anticipated for all OPCOs and each planning region to address load-following needs.
– Several OPCOs will require additional CCGT or solid fuel LOU resources to address long-term base load supply needs.
– Near term LOU resources are expected to be provided primarily from resources that are already operational or nearly complete
– The System will develop self-supply projects to provide “options” that could be implemented within normal construction periods, if necessary, to limit exposure to power purchases or address potential long-term reliability issues within particular locations such as Amite South or WOTAB.
Part 2 – Strategic Overview
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Overview of Major Resource Additions
Part 2 – Strategic Overview
Purchased Power
Continue reliance on a diversified purchase power portfolio consisting of 2000 – 5000 MW of short and longer term purchase power products.
Load Following
Acquire or build a minimum of 2-4 additional CCGT/CT plants to provide “core” load following capability
– System has daily load swings of 5000-9000 MW; a minimum of 2000-3000 MW CCGTs needed for operational flexibility and to limit exposure to purchase power prices
– Need to replace current 35+ year old conventional gas units currently providing this role– Need to provide each OPCO with at least 1 long-term CCGT in long-term portfolio– New capacity to be located primarily in Southern portion of the System (Amite South, WOTAB)– Likely to include some self-supply projects in transmission critical regions (Western WOTAB, Amite
South) to reduce production costs associated with minimum run levels for units whose commitment is required for RMR and load following
Build or acquire a minimum of 2000 MW of new base load generation – presumably solid fuel given current gas price expectations
– Needed in both Amite South and WOTAB regions– Multiple projects over 2010 – 2015 period– Need a portfolio of projects diversifying generation technology and fuel type– Diversify carbon based technology to consider eastern coal and coke as alternatives to western coal
and rail transport exposure– Clean conventional pulverized coal expected to be part of the mix at new large (800 – 1600) MW sites
but will take 5 – 7 years to develop– Coal and IGCC are longer-term options (2013 – 2015+)– 300 – 500 MW CFB projects provide earlier COD and opportunity to diversify fuel sources and get
resources in multiple regions maximizing use of early capital
Base Load
Self-supply Create self-supply options that can be executed if needed
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Strategy for Stable Fuel Resources
The SSRP seeks to provide each Entergy Operating Company with long-term controllable stable fuel price capacity resources that should move each Entergy Operating Company toward the objective of having resources that could provide its base load firm energy requirements from resources with highly predictable fuel prices. Stable fuel price capacity resources are expected to include solid fuel (i.e. coal or nuclear) capacity, renewable generation resources, or highly efficient gas-fired generation with fixed price gas price contracts with a term of at least ten years.
Part 2 – Strategic Overview
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Entergy System 2006 Resource Requirements and Capability
Part 3 – Current Portfolio
Intermediate
Peaking
Base
Reserves
Purchases
High CF LF
The following chart compares 2006 functional requirements for the Entergy System with long-term controlled resources.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
10,328
7,452
1,735
1,042
3,541 10,469
5,006
3,681
3,4731,439
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Resources (MW) 7,452 1,042 10,469 3,681 22,644Requirement (MW) 10,328 1,735 3,541 8,479 24,083Excess / (Deficit) (MW) (2,877) (693) 6,928 (4,798) (1,439)
TotalBase Load HCFLF Intermediate Peaking Plus Reserve
Load Shape Requirements (MWs) Capacity (MWs)
Requirements Existing Portfolio
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Entergy Arkansas, Inc. 2006 Resource Requirements and Capability
Part 3 – Current Portfolio
Intermediate
Peaking
Base
Reserves
Purchases
High CF LF
The following chart compares 2006 functional requirements for EAI with long-term controlled resources.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2,299
3,068
440
715547
1,581 1,124
504800
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Resources (MW) 3,068 0 547 1,124 4,739Requirement (MW) 2,299 440 715 2,085 5,539Excess / (Deficit) (MW) 769 (440) (168) (961) (800)
TotalBase Load HCFLF Intermediate Peaking Plus Reserve
Load Shape Requirements (MWs) Capacity (MWs)
Requirements Existing Portfolio
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Entergy Gulf States, Inc. 2006 Resource Requirements and Capability
Part 3 – Current Portfolio
Intermediate
Peaking
Base
Reserves
Purchases
High CF LF
The following chart compares 2006 functional requirements for EGSI with long-term controlled resources.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
3,779
1,408
590
422
1,091
3,035
1,3891,972
685 696
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Resources (MW) 1,408 422 3,035 1,972 6,836Requirement (MW) 3,779 590 1,091 2,073 7,532Excess / (Deficit) (MW) (2,371) (168) 1,944 (101) (696)
TotalBase Load HCFLF Intermediate Peaking Plus Reserve
Load Shape Requirements (MWs) Capacity (MWs)
Requirements Existing Portfolio
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Entergy Louisiana, LLC 2006 Resource Requirements and Capability
Part 3 – Current Portfolio
Intermediate
Peaking
Base
Reserves
Purchases
High CF LF
The following chart compares 2006 functional requirements for ELL with long-term controlled resources.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2,597
1,672
391
141
9343,879
1,130
306
505
441
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Resources (MW) 1,672 141 3,879 306 5,998Requirement (MW) 2,597 391 934 1,635 5,557Excess / (Deficit) (MW) (924) (250) 2,945 (1,329) 441
TotalBase Load HCFLF Intermediate Peaking Plus Reserve
Load Shape Requirements (MWs) Capacity (MWs)
Requirements Existing Portfolio
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Entergy Mississippi, Inc. 2006 Resource Requirements and Capability
Part 3 – Current Portfolio
Intermediate
Peaking
Base
Reserves
Purchases
High CF LF
The following chart compares 2006 functional requirements for EMI with long-term controlled resources.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
1,279852
332
480
619
2,253
1,152
214338
79
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Resources (MW) 852 480 2,253 214 3,799Requirement (MW) 1,279 332 619 1,491 3,720Excess / (Deficit) (MW) (427) 148 1,634 (1,277) 79
TotalBase Load HCFLF Intermediate Peaking Plus Reserve
Load Shape Requirements (MWs) Capacity (MWs)
Requirements Existing Portfolio
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Entergy New Orleans, Inc. 2006 Resource Requirements and Capability
Part 3 – Current Portfolio
Intermediate
Peaking
Base
Reserves
Purchases
High CF LF
The following chart compares 2006 functional requirements for ENO with long-term controlled resources.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
281
452
105
142
755
187
65
71
486
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Resources (MW) 452 0 755 65 1,272Requirement (MW) 281 105 142 258 786Excess / (Deficit) (MW) 171 (105) 613 (193) 486
TotalBase Load HCFLF Intermediate Peaking Plus Reserve
Load Shape Requirements (MWs) Capacity (MWs)
Requirements Existing Portfolio
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Gas Correlation
Gas Correlation in terms of Capacity
Coal10%
Hydro3%
Nuclear22%
Gas & Oil65%
Part 3 – Current Portfolio
*Capacity based in 2005 Summer Ratings
2005 Supply Mix (% of total energy)
Nuclear33%
Coal12%
Gas/Oil20%
Purchases35%
Hydro0%
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Age of Fleet
Part 3 – Current Portfolio
Age & Efficiency of ETR Gas / Oil Generation
Gas & Oil Units (MW) Completing Years of Service
24-3015%
30-3539%
>3546%
Gas & Oil Units (MW) By Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) (Billing)
10,000-11,00031%
11,000-12,00033%
>12,00036%
Gas & Oil Units (MW) By Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) (IHR)
9,000-10,00045%
10,000-11,00039%
11,000-12,0009%
>12,0007%
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Annual Peak Load Forecast
Part 4 – Load Forecast
The peak load forecast establishes system reliability requirements.
Post Katrina
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
MW
Annual Peaks
Firm Peaks
Forecast Year Annual Peak Firm Peak 2006 21,103 20,6102007 21,478 21,0072008 21,921 21,4382009 22,197 21,7212010 22,661 22,1742011 22,902 22,4312012 23,373 22,8952013 23,894 23,4052014 24,360 23,8682015 24,643 24,167
2006 Business Plan Annual and Firm Peaks (MW)
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Retirement Strategy
The operating companies have evaluated and continue to evaluate potential unit retirements on an on-going basis. The decision whether to retire an existing unit is an economic one that requires comparison of the forward cost of the existing unit with the forward cost of alternatives.
Many of the System’s older gas and oil-fired units run at low capacity factors. At the same time these units require relatively low forward spending to keep available. Consequently, these units serve the peaking / reserve role in an economic manner. They provide economic sources of capacity.
Part 5 – Retirement Strategy
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Overview of Plan
Plan identifies preliminary expectations regarding timing and location (planning region) for new long-term resources, and expected participation in each resource (to be finalized by the Operating Committee at the time commitment to resource is made).
Amounts and timing reflect the Entergy System needs.
Preliminary resource participation based upon consideration of Operating Company supply requirements to meet load shape and expected business risks and conditions.
Part 6 – Overview of Plan 2006 - 2015
The statements contained in this Appendix are made subject to the Reservation of Rights set forth in the RFP and subject to the terms and acknowledgements set forth in the Proposal Submission Agreement.
2006 LONG-TERM RFP - April 17, 2006
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All forecast information reflects planning assumptions as of December 2005.
Summary of Plan Resources
Part 6 – Overview of Plan 2006 - 2015
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015DEMAND & OWNED RESOURCES
Total Reliability Needs 24,476 24,956 25,472 25,917 26,449 26,760 27,313 27,919 28,466 28,820
Controlled ResourcesNuclear 4,561 4,526 4,526 4,449 4,449 4,449 4,449 4,449 4,449 4,449Coal 2,228 2,219 2,219 2,188 2,188 2,188 2,188 2,188 2,188 2,188Gas/Oil 13,729 13,917 13,917 13,943 13,943 13,398 13,398 13,398 13,398 13,398Hydro 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229 229
Total Provision for Resources 20,747 20,891 20,890 20,809 20,809 20,264 20,264 20,264 20,264 20,264
Total Expected Procurement 3,729 4,065 4,581 5,108 5,641 6,496 7,050 7,656 8,202 8,557
SUPPLY PLANLong-Term Resources
Definitive Acquisitions 1,198 1,198 1,198 1,198 1,198 1,198 1,198 1,198 1,198 1,198Definitive PPAs 613 613 613 613 633 633 633 633 633 633Planned Long-Term Additions
Load Following 0 480 480 830 830 1,180 1,660 2,140 2,620 2,620Solid Fuel 156 200 200 308 308 824 1,324 1,324 1,324 1,324
TOTAL LONG-TERM 1,967 2,491 2,491 2,949 2,969 3,835 4,815 5,295 5,775 5,775
Limited -Term ResourcesDefinitive Limited-Term Resources
Load Following 1,209 479 300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Peaking 460 210 210 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Annual Block / Call Options 50 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Planned Limited-Term ResourcesLoad Following 480 0 50 450 950 950 550 650 700 1,100Peaking 0 0 0 500 500 500 500 500 500 500Annual Block / Call Options 700 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
TOTAL LIMITED-TERM 2,899 1,789 1,660 2,050 2,550 2,550 2,150 2,250 2,300 2,700
TOTAL RESOURCES 4,866 4,280 4,151 4,999 5,519 6,385 6,965 7,545 8,075 8,475