Shawn Fountain

Vice President

 

Allocating Unaccounted for Energy (UFE) in MISO

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Presentation overview

Overview of MISO market

What is UFE

Common UFE allocation methods

Financial Impact

All numbers in this presentation are for illustration purposes only

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Main processes by functional area

Settlement Billing

Validate for Profiling Process

Determine Samples

Perform Analyses

Create Profiles

Process Inbound Reads

Validate Reads

Report Missing Reads

Estimate Reads

Edit Reads

Create Profiles Dynamically

Estimate Usage Dynamically

Apply Profiles

Aggregate

Send Data to Market

Receive Data from Market

Reconcile Data

Report Missing Required Data

Estimate Usage Dynamically

Apply Profiles

Calculate Determinants

Prepare Bills

MDMLoad

Research

Estimate Reads

Create Profiles

Create Profiles

Estimate Usage

Apply Profiles

Estimate Usage

Apply Profiles

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MISO “MDM” Market Participants

Meter Data Management Agent (MDMA) ─ An entity designated by a Market Participant to manage and conduct the metering services on the Market Participant’s behalf

Billing Agent ─ An entity designated by a Market Participant to manage and conduct the settlement and billing services on the Market Participant’s behalf

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MISO Commercial Model

A representation of relationships between Market Participants and their Resources, Commercial Pricing Nodes, and transactions

Derived from the Transmission Network Model

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Entities in the Commercial Model

ENode (Electrical Node) ─ Physical point of injection or withdrawal in the network model

EPNode (Elemental Pricing Node) ─ An ENode for which a price is calculated

Lowest level of granularity of the LMP calculation and the lowest level represented in the Commercial Model

EPNodes and their LMPs are not published

CPNode (Commercial Pricing Node) ─ An aggregate price for a collection of EPNodes

All settlements occur at the CPNode level

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MISO Commercial Model structure

MISO

CPNode (Load Zone)

CPNode(Hub)

CPNode(Gen)

EPNode EPNode EPNode

Internal Control Area

Internal Control Area

Enode ENode ENode

EPNode

ENode

CPNode (Load Zone)

CPNode (Load Zone)

CPNode(Gen)

EPNode EPNode EPNode

ENode ENode ENode

External Control Area

Flowgate Flowgate

Physical Entity

Financial Entity

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MISO settlement runs

Settlement 7 (S7) ─ 7 days after Op Day

Settlement 14 (S14) ─ 14 days after Op Day

Settlement 55 (S55) ─ 55 days after Op Day

Settlement 105 (S105) ─ 105 days after Op Day

J anuary May

2/1/2006Operating Day

2/15/2006Settlement 14

3/28/2006Settlement 55

5/17/2006Settlement 105

2/8/2006Settlement 7

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What is UFE?

The difference between aggregated metered load adjusted for distribution losses AND the net energy delivered (generation, imports and exports) adjusted for transmission losses

Sources of UFE include metering errors, invalid profiles, loss errors, unreported load or generation, etc.

UFE is also referred to as residual load

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MISO calculation for Balancing Area UFE

(BA_BLL_MTR + NAIBA + BA_LOSS ) * (-1)

Where BA_BLL_MTR = Sum of all asset Commercial Node

meter data within the given Balancing Authority Area. Injections are represented by negative values and load by positive values

NAIBA = The Net Actual Interchange. A positive value represents energy flowing out of the area while a negative value represents energy flowing into the area

BA_LOSS = The transmission losses for the given Balancing Authority Area. Losses are positive values

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MISO rules for UFE allocation

MISO recommends “that Balancing Authorities be responsible for allocating UFE to all load serving entities on a Balancing Authority Area load ratio share or other fair and equitable allocation methodology”

UFE may be allocated to each Retail CP Node using a load ratio share methodology

There is no single approach to allocating UFE

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Assigning UFE to load owners

MISO performs this calculation and allocates all of the UFE to a Residual Load Owner

For Market Participants submitting load to MISO, it may be beneficial to calculate and allocate UFE prior to data submittal

If actual reads are adjusted to account for UFE prior to submittal to MISO, the MISO UFE calculation should yield little to no UFE

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Scalar and interval meters

Scalar meters are cumulative meters generally read once per month

If interval meters are working properly, interval meters will have negligible impact on UFE

Scalar usage is profiled to determine the necessary interval values using a process called profile application

Most of deviation resulting in UFE is thought to be due to profile application of scalar usage

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Definitions (slide 1)

Profile Creation ─ The creation of shape and volume profiles generally via sample interval meters

Profile Application ─ Applying the shape from a profile to scalar usage to convert the scalar usage to interval data

Usage Estimation ─ The estimating of scalar usage for scalar meters, or interval usage for interval meters, when no actuals exist for a given time period and that period is prior to the system date and time

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Definitions (slide 2)

Usage Forecasting ─ The forecasting of usage for a time period that is after the system date and time

Dynamic Profile Creation ─ Using historic data in a modeling process like regression to directly produce an interval estimate for a scalar meter for the settlement period

Dynamic Profile Creation generally takes a profile from the Profile Creation process as an input

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Profiling techniques are dependent on the available data

Actual readings available for settlement day

No readings for settlement day, but historical readings are available

No readings for any period (e.g. new construction)

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Nine main data states for profiling

There are many more possible data states, e.g., a read or profile exists for part of the settlement period

Profile Exists for

History and for

Settlement Period

Profile Exists for

History but not for

Settlement Period

Profile Does Not

Exist

Profile Data State

Read

Data

S

tate

Read for Settlement Period

Historical Read but No Read for Settlement

Period

No read

Profile Exists for History and for Settlement

Period

Profile Exists for History but

not for Settlement

Period

Profile Does Not Exist

Read for Settlement

PeriodScenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 7

Historical Read but No Read

for Settlement Period

Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 8

No read Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 9

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Illustration of primary calculation approach for Scenario 1

For each interval in the settlement period, (profile value for interval / total profile for the start and stop of the meter read) * the meter read consumption value

Feb MarSystem

Date Existing Profile

Meter Reads

Settlement PeriodX

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Estimating meter consumption

Regression ─ Regression against one or more independent variables

Proxy Day ─ Historical usage from the most like day in history based on the shape, volume, day type and/or other attributes; typically used when regression not viable

Like Day ─ The avg of historical usage for like days (e.g. day type and season); more commonly used for forecasting

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Profile shape is not accurate for a given day and/or for hours across that day

Usage may have to be estimated and the estimate will almost always never be 100%

Arguably not profile application error but usage estimation error compounds profile accuracy error

Reasons for profile application error

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Allocating UFE to all meters by LRS

MDMAs can generally estimate the UFE % within a tight tolerance

The simplest approach is spreading UFE across all scalar and interval meters

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It is generally accepted that most UFE is the result of inaccuracies from profile application

Therefore an approach is to assign all UFE to scalar meters

Allocating UFE only to scalar meters

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Side by side view

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Financial impact of allocating UFE via these two different approaches

Assuming 68,000 meters with avg 50 kW peak demand and avg 60% load factor

Assuming average LMP = $60/MWh

Multiplying by 8760 hours

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Wrap-up

MISO allows Market Participants to allocate UFE in different ways

Market Participants can adjust their meter reads by the estimated UFE and provide those adjusted values to MISO

A common approach for allocating UFE is to allocate all UFE to scalar meters based on load ratio share

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Contact the organizers

For any additional information, please do not hesitate to contact the organizers

Devi Paulsen

Spintelligent Phone: 888 559 8017 (US)devip@spintelligent.com

www.american-utility-week.com