THE MYSTERY OF UNACCOUNTED FOR GAS

…. The Mystery of Unaccounted

for Gas

Presented by Dr. Faizullah Abbasi, MD, SSGC

Pakistan Energy Conference April 12, 2011-Islamabad

Wouldyou hire this man as your

detective if it is the

…

Sui Southern Gas Company Limited 3

Quetta

Sibi

Pirkoh

Loti

Sui

JacobabadShikarpur

Larkana

DaduZamzama

Sari Hyderabad

Nawabshah

SawanKadanwari

Miano

Badin

Karachi

Bhit

Hasan

Sukkur

FJFC

Pesh Bogi

Mazarani

Zarghun

Sindh

Balochistan

SSGC INFRASTRUCTURESSGC

INFRASTRUCTURE

Transmission Network (Km) 3,320

Distribution Network (Km) 36,785

SNGPL transmission line

Customers

Industrial 3,863

Commercial 24,156

Domestic 2,219,138

POD

POD

POD

POD

SMS

SMS

SMS

TBS

TBS

TBS IndustrialCMSs

DomesticMeters

Commercial Meters

Distribution Supply MainsTransmission pipelines Distribution Network

CUSTOMERS

4

GAS FLOW CHART

Inspector Clouseau will not solve the

mystery of UFG till he gets into the

heart of the matter.

Will the Case get complex and intricate? Let’s find out….

TOTAL GAS SALE

UFG

TOTAL GAS PURCHASE

7

WHAT IS UNACCOUNTED FOR GAS OR UFG?

INDUSTRIAL SALE

(3,863 Customers)

COMMERCIAL SALE

(24,156 Customers)

DOMESTIC SALE

(2,219,138 Customers)

UFG

+

+

GAS PURCHASEDFROM 16 GAS

FIELDS

8

HOW IS UFG CALCULATED?

DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM45 MMCF

UFG5 MMCF i.e. 5%

GAS PURCHASE100 MMCF

9

BULK/POWER50 MMCF

UFG – THE ARITHMETIC TRICK - 1

DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM45 MMCF

UFG5 MMCF i.e. 10%

GAS PURCHASE50 MMCF

10

BULK/POWER0 MMCF

UFG – THE ARITHMETIC TRICK - 2

SSGC - YEAR WISE % BULK SALE TREND

11

%AGE

UFG IN GAS SALES MIX - POWER

12

(26.15%)

(13.19%)

(5.5%)

(18.30%)

(16.82%)

(2.31%)

(7.95%)

(9.6 %)

BULK POWER 129,812

BULK OTHER 42,405

DOMESTI C 73,844

CNG24,473

CAPTI VE POWER 57,915

COMMERCI AL10,178

G.I NDUSTRI ES80,351

UFG20,000

15BCF Gas May Produce

UFG IN GAS SALES MIX – BULK POWER

13

(29.57%)

(13.19%)

(5.5%)

(18.30%)

(16.82%)

(2.31%)

(4.5%)

(9.6 %)

1,250,000 MW Power

14

A Quick Math Calculation

SSGC: Annual UFG = 35,010 MMCF (7.95%)

SSGC: Per day UFG = 96 MMCFD

Avg. Cost/MMCF = Rs 221,690

Financial Cost of Lost Gas (UFG)

35,010 (MMCF) x Rs 221,690 (Gas price) = Rs 7,761 million (All figures for FY-2009-10)

FIRST CLUE: FINANCIAL IMPACT OF UFG

Reduced Gas Availability

for Power Sector.

Penalty by Regulator

(Rs. 934 Million in 2009-10)

Environmental Pollution

Equivalent to 9.135 million

Tonnes of CO2. (13% of the

total emissions of Pakistan).15

CONSEQUENCES OF HIGH UFG – PLOT THICKENS

GENERAL PERCEPTION ABOUT UFG

ALL UFG IS THEFT

ALL THEFT IS UFG

BUT ALL UFG IS NOT THEFT !

17

Efforts focused on controlling gas theft.

Established theft control department.

Installed Cyber locks & EVCs.

Dedicated lines for bulk & CNG customers.

Theft by non-customers.

ONGOING EFFORTS TO CONTROL GAS THEFT

These ongoing exercises have uncovered some theft cases .…

Yet the UFG has increased!

19

18,871

19,28320,822

24,264

27,390

25,584

29,082

27,093

33,501

35,010

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

UFG VOLUME (MMCF)

UFG IN SSGC – THE LAST TEN YEARS

UFG

TRACKING DOWN SUSPECTS: UFG CLASSIFICATION

NON TECHNICAL(THEFT)

COMPLEX/UNCONTROLLABLE

TECHNICAL(OTHER FACTORS)

CONTROLLABLE

21

30th September 1988 Hyderabad Incident

Normal daily gas purchase of Hyderabad = 30 MMCFD.

Normal daily sale of Industrial & Commercial Customers

= 8 MMCFD.

During curfew all industrial & commercial units were closed.

Logically, Purchase should have been 30-8=22 MMCFD.

IT DID NOT HAPPEN

But actual Purchase on following days was 29

MMCFD-------------------------------------------------WHY?

INCIDENTS LEADING TOWARDS OTHER CAUSES OF UFG

To dig deeper, Inspector Clouseau

heads off to Hazara Colony,Hyderabad….

23

CHARACTERISTICS OF HAZARA COLONY

MANAGEABLE AREA

TOTAL LENGTH OF THE LOOP = 3 Kms.

TOTAL NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS = 298.

HAZARACOLONY

LINE DIAGRAM OF THE AREA OF STUDY

PRS

HALI ROAD

ZEAL PAK TM KHAN

ROADFatahChowk

TBS Site50 Psig

24

PRESSURE REGULATING STATION (PRS) AND THE BULK METER FEEDING HAZARA COLONY HYDERABAD

25

UFG AT DIFFERENT PRESSURES

UFG AT4-5 psig

Purchase/Day 42.17 MCF

Sale/Day 20.38 MCF

UFG/Day21.79 MCF (51.67%)

UFG AT 10-11 psig

56.5 MCF

20.38 MCF

36.12 MCF (63.93%)

UFG AT 21-23 psig

223.2 MCF

20.38 MCF

202.82 MCF (90.87%)

HAZARA COLONY HYDERABAD

26

IMPACT OF OVERHEAD LEAKAGE IMPACT OF OVERHEAD LEAKAGE RECTIFICATIONRECTIFICATION

AT 4-5 psig

Before OH rectification

After OHRectification

Purchase/Day

42.17 Mcf 40.72 Mcf

Sales/Day

20.38 Mcf 20.38 Mcf

UFG/Day

21.79 Mcf 20.34 Mcf

UFG % 51.67% 49.95%

27

AT 4-5 psig

Before installation

of new meters

After installation

of new meters

Purchase/Day

40.72 Mcf 39.19 Mcf

Sale/Day 20.38 Mcf 27.65 Mcf

UFG/Day 20.34 Mcf 11.54 Mcf

UFG% 49.95% 29.45%

IMPACT OF METER CHANGEIMPACT OF METER CHANGE

28

FACTOR-WISE UFG VOLUMEMCF PER

DAY% OF UFG

OVER HEAD LEAKAGES 1.45 6.66

PUG METERS 1.37 6.29

METERS SLOW DUE TO DUST 0.43 1.97

METERS SLOW DUE TO OPERATIONAL EFFECT

2.51 11.52

BILLING DIFFERENCES 0.14 0.64

THEFT (METERS TAMPERED) 4.35 19.96

LEAKAGES 11.54 52.96

TOTAL

21.79 100.0

PURCHASE VOLUME 42.17 MCF/DAYSALE VOLUME 20.38 MCF/DAYTOTAL UFG VOLUME 21.79 MCF/DAY

UFG CONTRIBUTING FACTORSAT 4-5 psig

Rehabilitation alongwith

Augmentation & Pressure Profiling

Introduction of Pressure

Profiling

INTERIOR SINDHUFG STATUS (1982-83 to 2009-10)

29

Increasing Trend Despite Pressure

ProfilingWithout

Augmentation

Introduction of Pressure

ProfilingWithout Pressure Profiling

KARACHIUFG STATUS (1989-90 to 2009-10)

30

Introduction of CNG Stations

Without Augmentation and desired

Rehabilitation

LESSONS FROM NATIONAL GRID, UK & LONE STAR GAS,

USA

32

Distribution system operates in inches of water column.

Estimated Losses due to Leakages 6.3 Bcf / Annum.

Introduced Pressure Profiling in 1990.

Installed 3,500 automatic pressure profiling systems.

Additional 2,000 are in process. *Presented by Mr. Jonathan Dennett & Steven Vallender in 2009 IGU Conference Argentina in 2009

CLUE 2 – LONE STAR COMPANY, USA

LO

* Reducing the pressure from 10 psig to 5 psig lowers the gas leakage by 29.3%.

*Presented by Mr. Darryl Gallagher

CLUE 1 – NATIONAL GRID, UK

33

PRESSURE

PROFILINGSYSTEM

AUGUMENTATION

SHORT TERM MAGIC TOOLS TO REDUCE UFG

34

Rate of gas leakage is reduced by reducing operating

pressure.

Pressures are reduced during off-peak Period (Night) and normalized during day (Cooking Load Period).

PRESSURE PROFILING

PIPELINE AUGMENTATION

35

Augmentation involves lowering operating pressures and increasing network capacity.

Distribution Network becomes undersized with increase in load with time.

Network Pressures are kept high to ensure gas availability to Customers.

Undersize Network is rectified by replacement of small dia pipelines with large dia pipelines or by laying additional lines of large dia.

36

Underground leaks (Ageing of

Distribution Network) &

Overhead leaks.

Reduction in uninfected sales (Bulk) and increase in infected sales (Retail)

Measurement and Billing Errors

Third Party Damages.

Pipeline ruptures due to blast / sabotage.

COMPLICATING THE CASE – COMPLICATING THE CASE – OTHER FACTORS BEHIND UFG OTHER FACTORS BEHIND UFG

37

MONITORING UFG MONITORING UFG

Segmentation of Distribution Network in Small Zones.

Analysis of Gas Sale, Purchase and UFG.

GETTING INTO THE HEART OF THE GETTING INTO THE HEART OF THE CASECASE

NOVEL TECHNIQUES TO MONITOR UFG

38

Let’s check the trends through

DIFFERENTIAL ANALYSIS

Differential Analysis (Decrease in UFG)

MMCF

Differential Analysis (Increase in UFG)

MMCF

UFG MONITORING TOOL(DIFFERENTIAL ANALYSIS) MMCF

41

Region wise UFG Differential Analysis of Interior SindhJul-Sep 2010 (1st Qtr) V/s Jul-Sep 2009 (1st Qtr)

MMCF

43

Pipeline Rehabilitation

Improve Measurement Accuracy

LONG TERM MEASURES TO LONG TERM MEASURES TO CONTROL UFGCONTROL UFG

UFG REDUCTION: WORLD BANK FUNDING – 2011-UFG REDUCTION: WORLD BANK FUNDING – 2011-15 15

COMPONENT WISE PHYSICAL TARGETCOMPONENT WISE PHYSICAL TARGETItems Unit TotalREHABILITATION OF DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM Km 5750

AUTOMATIC PRESSURE MANAGEMENT Nos. 400

UNDERGROUND LEAK SURVEY AND RECTIFICATION Km 18700

OVERHEAD LEAKAGE SURVEY AND RECTIFICATION

No. of customer connections

2,770,300

AUGMENTATION Km 713METERS Nos. 13,062

METER TESTING EQUIPMENT Nos. 24

SURVEILLANCE AND DATA MONITORING EQUIPMENT Nos. 2500

PIPE RECOATING Km 450

CP EQUIPMENT Nos. 5902

SEGMENTATION & PRESSURE MANAGEMENT EQUIPMENT Nos. 400

44

45

45

UFG – THROUGH THE LENS UFG – THROUGH THE LENS

The Mystery of UFG has been SOLVED to a great extent. Yet this trail to clamp down on UFG cases

have uncovered COMPLEX issues such as the nagging incidence of gas theft that needs further

identification…

COMING SOON

Clouseau’s next case: TacklingGas theft

48

QUESTION TIME

FACTOR-WISE UFG VOLUMEMCF PER

DAY% OF UFG

OVER HEAD LEAKAGES 1.45 6.66

PUG METERS 1.37 6.29

METERS SLOW DUE TO DUST 0.43 1.97

METERS SLOW DUE TO OPERATIONAL EFFECT

2.51 11.52

BILLING DIFFERENCES 0.14 0.64

THEFT (METERS TAMPERED) 4.35 19.96

LEAKAGES 11.54 52.96

TOTAL 21.79 100.0

UFG CONTRIBUTING FACTORS

AT 4-5 psig

MCF PERDAY

% OF UFG

1.45 4.01

1.37 3.80

0.43 1.19

2.51 6.95

0.14 0.39

4.35 12.04

25.87 71.62

36.12 100.0

Purchase Volume

Sale Volume

Total UFG Volume

42.17 MCF/DAY

20.38 MCF/DAY

21.79 MCF/DAY

AT 10-11 psig AT 21-23 psig

56.50 MCF/DAY

20.38 MCF/DAY

36.12 MCF/DAY

223.2 MCF/DAY

20.38 MCF/DAY

202.82 MCF/DAY

MCF PERDAY

% OF UFG

1.45 0.71

1.37 0.68

0.43 0.21

2.51 1.24

0.14 0.07

4.35 2.14

192.57 94.95

202.82 100.0

UFG MONITORING TOOL(DIFFERENTIAL ANALYSIS)

50

Zone Wise Hyderabad Region (July-February)