amárach economic recovery index august 2016

1Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing

August 2016: Focus on Irish Bank


The Brexit Bounce?

It’s over seven years since we started

tracking the Economic Recovery Index and

the good news is that we appear to be

seeing some recovery in our index!

Last month, in our first report after Brexit we

reported a ‘surprise’ recovery in Irish

consumer sentiment about the economy – if

anything we’ve become even more bullish,

with the ERI returning to its previous record

high level of 45, last seen in January 2016.

In this month’s edition we’ve also taken a

closer look at the mood of Ireland’s bank

customers, looking at economic sentiment,

loyalty and emotional wellbeing.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over six years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009

to August 2016.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 10th to 19th August 2016 inclusive.

See how bad it was seven years ago:http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-august-results-2009

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, August 2016

Despite the shock of Brexit, Irish sentiment about the economy continues to improve


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Aug-09 53 26 20 1 0 17.0

Aug-10 36 36 24 4 0 24.0

Aug-11 52 29 18 1 0 17.3

Aug-12 42 31 25 2 0 21.7

Aug-13 38 33 26 3 0 23.7

Aug-14 16 33 38 13 0 37.2

Aug-15 15 29 35 19 2 40.8

Jul-16 13 30 32 22 3 43.1

Aug-16 11 28 33 24 4 45.0

Our ERI in August 2016 is back to its January 2016 peak

Consumer Impact


Recession, Resilience & Recovery

We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery

Index’ back in April 2009 as we wanted to

emphasise the positive and didn’t think the

recession would last so long!

Over these past seven years we have tracked

the highs and lows (and some very lows) in

terms of the mood of the nation and the

impact on consumer spending, borrowing and

saving intentions.

We’ve also seen remarkable resilience on the

part of the Irish people when it comes to

‘getting on’ with their lives, despite macro-

economic uncertainties.

In this section we look at some of the key

indicators when it comes to consumer

spending and saving intentions.


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the worst

of the recession

in 12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to make

it through the

recession

I am optimistic in

spite of the

current economic

situation

Right now it seems

like the recession is

affecting other

people more than it

is affecting me

Aug-09 43 48 60 61

Aug-10 39 46 50 54

Aug-11 24 34 48 46

Aug-12 27 39 47 46

Aug-13 32 38 44 43

Aug-14 41 44 53 47

Aug-15 44 44 54 45

Jul-16 37 43 50 44

Aug-16 34 43 55 40

Feeling ‘optimistic’ is trending upwards strongly in recent months


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more relaxed

about spending

money than I was a

few months ago

I am saving a lot

more than before

because of the

recession

My main financial

priority is to pay off

my debts as quickly

as possible

I would be happy

to borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Aug-09 16

Aug-10 19 26 62 31

Aug-11 14 25 57 23

Aug-12 17 28 54 25

Aug-13 18 25 55 25

Aug-14 28 27 56 27

Aug-15 28 25 58 28

Jul-16 31 28 55 29

Aug-16 33 30 56 36

Willingness to borrow is at its highest level ever


Willing Borrowers

Spending sentiment is still up on 3-4 months ago

33

28292929

3031

28

30

27

31

2727

2021

22

2423

24

26

23

26

2323232322

24

26

24

2827

23

252524

25

2222

27

2425

21

242323

252524

2626

2424

262625

26

23

2728

25

28

23

2626

24

28

24

272728

30

2827

26

30

2626

24

2930

29

36

OC

T-0

9

DE

C-0

9

FE

B-1

0

AP

R-1

0

JU

N-1

0

AU

G-1

0

OC

T-1

0

DE

C-1

0

FE

B-1

1

AP

R-1

1

JU

N-1

1

AU

G-1

1

OC

T-1

1

DE

C-1

1

FE

B-1

2

AP

R-1

2

JU

N-1

2

AU

G-1

2

OC

T-1

2

DE

C-1

2

FE

B-1

3

AP

R-1

3

JU

N-1

3

AU

G-1

3

OC

T-1

3

DE

C-1

3

FE

B-1

4

AP

R-1

4

JU

N-1

4

AU

G-1

4

OC

T-1

4

DE

C-1

4

FE

B-1

5

AP

R-1

5

JU

N-1

5

AU

G-1

5

OC

T-1

5

DE

C-1

5

FE

B-1

6

AP

R-1

6

JU

N-1

6

AU

G-1

6

I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to:

% Agree

Focus: Main Bank


Consumer Sentiment by Main Bank – I

Summary data:

Main Bank

August 2016AIB

Bank of

Ireland

Ulster

Bank

Permanent

TSB

Credit

Union

ERI Score 44.5 43.9 48.9 43.7 46.5

% financially comfortable

enough to make it through

recession

42% 43% 39% 47% 46%

% more relaxed about

spending money than a few

months ago

34% 32% 29% 34% 42%

Net Promoter Score -28 -32 -7 -12 +5

% who have ever

recommended their main

bank

45% 42% 50% 51% 59%

% likely to switch their main

bank in next three months11% 17% 12% 9% 23%


Consumer Sentiment by Main Bank – II

Mood of the Nation


The Real Mood of the Nation

When we started measuring and reporting the

Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be

more than just another ‘confidence index’.

We therefore set out to measure the full

spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish

consumers – positive as well as negative ones

– in order to provide a unique insight into the

real ‘mood’ of the nation.

Lately some interesting but rather strange

things have emerged – our levels of stress

and anger have fallen to their lowest levels

ever, but our level of happiness is trending

downwards as well, despite the recovery.

The following charts show the trends to

August 2016, as well as looking at the

emotional wellbeing of bank customers.


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2016


20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

6

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2016


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

6

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Emotional Wellbeing by Main Bank

% experiencing each feeling ‘a lot of the day yesterday’:

Main Bank

August 2016

All

AdultsAIB

Bank of

Ireland

Ulster

Bank

Permanent

TSB

Credit

Union

Enjoyment 48% 52% 46% 49% 53% 42%

Happiness 44% 49% 43% 43% 43% 46%

Stress 30% 29% 32% 31% 29% 26%

Worry 29% 28% 30% 28% 31% 13%

Anxiety 22% 23% 24% 22% 19% 16%

Physical Pain 22% 20% 23% 22% 25% 22%

Boredom 22% 21% 28% 13% 21% 23%

Sadness 18% 15% 21% 17% 15% 21%

Loneliness 12% 12% 13% 9% 10% 16%

Anger 10% 10% 11% 13% 9% 19%

Fear 8% 7% 8% 9% 9% 10%

Amárach Outlook


Unfazed by Brexit

In our second Post-Brexit Economic

Recovery Index we have found little

evidence of a Brexit shock to Irish

consumer sentiment, either in terms of its

emotional impact or its behavioural impact.

We’ll keep tracking its progress into 2016 –

and we’ll keep you posted about Ireland’s

consumer needs.

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2016 and beyond.

For more on the ERI (including over 7 years worth of data) see:http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm


PlanR Database

We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index.

We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending

levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey

You can view the full list (as well as

a free dashboard) here:

Contact us for subscription details

and information about special offers

and join more than two dozen other

organisations using their own

customised planning dashboard.

http://getplanr.com/planr-data

Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

amárach economic recovery index august 2016

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