amárach economic recovery index march 2014

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing March 2014

© Amárach Research


Spring is in the air…

Last month we asked whether the rain had put

a dampener on the recovery in February? The

answer is apparently ‘yes’, because our

Economic Recovery Index has bounced

back to a new record level in March 2014.

The good news is that a record percentage of

consumers are seeing clear signs of recovery,

but… most are using the economic fair wind to

sort themselves out financially – paying down

debts is a bigger priority than this time last

year.

Still, it’s a better picture than a year ago, never

mind five years ago: look out for our special 5th

anniversary report on the Economic

Recovery Index next month.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out nearly five years ago to assess

the psychological impact of the recession and

to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

March 2014.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 7th-14th March 2014 inclusive.

The full data series is on our website – if you

want us to conduct additional analyses (by

brands etc) then feel free to get in touch.


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index has reach a new record of 34.7 in March 2014, the highest in five years:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, March 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'14

Feb

Mar


A Matter of Measurement

Feb ’14: 21% Mar ’14: 19%

Feb ’14: 39% Mar ’14: 34%

Feb ’14: 33% Mar ’14: 36%

Feb ’14: 7% Mar ’14: 10%

Feb ’14: 0% Mar ’14: 1%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is the lowest since we began:


ERI Summary Tables I

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Mar-10 36 35 27 2 0 23.5

Mar-11 48 30 20 2 0 19.2

Mar-12 43 29 24 4 0 22.3

Mar-13 41 29 25 5 0 24.0

Feb-14 21 39 33 7 0 31.7

Mar-14 19 34 36 10 1 34.7


ERI Summary Tables II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Mar-10 42 43 54 55

Mar-11 25 36 48 47

Mar-12 30 40 50 48

Mar-13 30 40 44 47

Feb-14 38 41 52 47

Mar-14 37 40 49 45


ERI Summary Tables III


%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Mar-10 18 25 61 30

Mar-11 13 23 58 23

Mar-12 18 29 55 24

Mar-13 19 27 53 25

Feb-14 22 25 58 24

Mar-14 23 24 58 26


ERI Summary Tables IV


%

I always buy

the lowest

price products

or services

I am always on

the lookout for

opportunities to

switch to

cheaper

suppliers

I have more

choice than

before when it

comes to

products and

services

I always buy

Irish when I

can

Apr-13 57 71 52 52

May-13 58 69 54 54

Jun-13 55 70 55 51

Jul-13 56 70 52 53

Aug-13 57 70 53 53

Sep-13 59 72 53 54

Oct-13 58 69 52 51

Nov-13 56 69 55 51

Dec-13 54 68 54 53

Jan-14 59 74 56 54

Feb-14 56 70 57 52

Mar-14 57 68 56 48


Financial Resilience

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”


March 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 10% 12% 7% 9% 11% 6% 9% 12% 13% 13% 7%

Slightly Agree 31% 29% 32% 29% 28% 26% 25% 40% 31% 40% 22%

Neither/Nor 15% 16% 14% 14% 20% 15% 11% 14% 15% 12% 18%

Slightly Disagree 23% 22% 24% 29% 20% 28% 27% 16% 20% 21% 25%

Strongly Disagree 19% 19% 19% 13% 20% 24% 26% 15% 18% 13% 25%


Spending Power


“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 7% 10% 5% 13% 10% 7% 4% 5% 10% 10% 5%

Slightly Agree 15% 16% 14% 14% 21% 14% 13% 14% 17% 17% 14%

Neither/Nor 19% 20% 17% 16% 15% 23% 18% 21% 24% 21% 16%




Indebted


“I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I needed to”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 6% 7% 5% 5% 8% 7% 6% 6% 8% 7% 6%

Slightly Agree 20% 21% 18% 18% 25% 22% 18% 15% 24% 21% 18%

Neither/Nor 14% 17% 11% 10% 20% 16% 10% 13% 15% 14% 14%




The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to March 2014


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'10

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'11

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'13

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'14

Fe

b

Ma

r

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to March 2014


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

'10

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

'11

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

'12

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

'13

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

'14

Fe

b

Ma

r

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Enjoyment 55% 54% 56% 54% 47% 46% 55% 67% 55% 57% 52%

Happiness 54% 50% 58% 59% 50% 50% 50% 58% 50% 55% 52%

Stress 42% 38% 46% 54% 48% 49% 39% 26% 42% 43% 41%

Worry 37% 32% 42% 35% 46% 38% 39% 29% 36% 35% 38%

Anxiety 30% 26% 33% 34% 34% 32% 33% 19% 30% 32% 27%

Boredom 28% 27% 30% 43% 37% 27% 24% 16% 33% 30% 27%

Physical Pain 25% 24% 26% 21% 22% 25% 24% 31% 24% 24% 26%

Sadness 22% 20% 25% 28% 23% 26% 22% 16% 22% 24% 20%

Anger 19% 20% 17% 19% 23% 29% 16% 9% 17% 18% 20%

Fear 11% 10% 11% 15% 14% 12% 9% 5% 13% 13% 9%


% saying Yes: March 2014

Drivers & Drinking

Drivers & Drinking

we ask the right questions

so you get the right answers

Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want maximize

the prize in 2014:

e. [email protected]

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

amárach economic recovery index march 2014

Documents

economic recovery

economic situation

drivers amp

borrow money

financially

selected statements

spending money

amrach research