何志欽-台灣所得分配變化之分水嶺20150414

何志欽2015 年 4 月 14 日

《台灣所得分配變化之分水嶺》Reflection and Expectation Based on Taiwanese Experiences 1964-2014

2

Baby Boomer

嬰兒潮Stage I

Rapid Economic Growth

經濟發展快速

Stage II

Deteriorated Income Distribution

所得分配惡化

1964 – 2014

1964 –1989 (25 years)

1990 – 2014 (25 years)

1946-1964

The First Quarter Century from 1964 to 1989

33

44

The Second Quarter Century from 1990 to 2014

5

Income Distribution Trend 1998-2011

（資料取自 : 朱敬一：「台灣所得分配惡化，隱藏不了」）

最高 top 5% 與最低 bottom 5% 的倍數

6

Wage Growth Trend 1991-2013

（資料取自 : 行政院主計總處 薪資及生產力統計）

Change in Nominal Average Wage

Change in Real Average Wage

77

Capital and wealth accumulation grew more rapidly than output and wages ( r > g )

( 資本與財富累積超越產出與工資成長 )

The impact of globalization （全球化衝擊）

The impact of QE policy in U.S.

（美國量化 鬆政策影響）寬

Macroeconomic Trends leading to Deteriorated Income Distribution after 1990

88

Capital Gains Taxation （資本利得稅）• Government abolished capital gains taxes on

Security Exchanges in 1990 （證券交易所得稅）• Government has not yet established capital gains

taxes on Real Estate Transactions （不動產交易所得稅）

Estate and Gift Taxation （遺產贈與稅）• Government reduced Estate and Gift tax top rate

substantially, from 50% to 10% in 2010

Tax Policies leading to Deteriorated Income Distribution after 1990

9

（ Economic Growth ）

Revenue（ Fiscal Sustainability ）

Strategic Equilibrium Dynamic Reconciliation

Equity Efficiency

Strategic Equilibrium and Dynamic Reconciliation among Revenue, Efficiency and Equity

（ Social Justice ）

10

（高財富群）High WealthIndividuals

（高所得群）High Income Individuals

（財富移轉 ）稅Wealth Transfer

Tax Top Rate is 20%

（最低 負制）稅Alternative Minimum

Tax Top Rate is 20%

10

Generation Correspondence between High Income Group and High Wealth Group

世代對應

11

Thank You for

Your Attention !