Ëàòâèÿ
Êîíñòàíòèí Ñòûðèí (ÐÝØ)
25 íîÿáðÿ 2015 ã.
1 / 35
Blanchard, O.-J., M. Gri�ths, and B. Gruss, �Boom, Bust,
Recovery: Forensics of the Latvia Crisis,� Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity, Fall 2013
Aslund, A., and V. Dombrovskis, How Latvia Came through the
Financial Crisis, Peterson Institute for International Economics,
2011
2 / 35
Áóì, ïàäåíèå, âîññòàíîâëåíèå
3 / 35
Íîðìà çàãðóçêè ïðîèçâîäñòâåííûõìîùíîñòåé
4050
6070
80ca
putil
1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1date
4 / 35
Íîðìà áåçðàáîòèöû
05
1015
20ur
ate
1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1date
5 / 35
Èíôëÿöèÿ
-10
010
2030
40in
flatio
n12
1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1date
6 / 35
Îïòèìèçì ïîòðåáèòåëåé èïðîèçâîäèòåëåé
-60
-40
-20
020
1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1date
indconfidence consconfidence7 / 35
Êðåäèòíûé áóì â íóëåâûå
8 / 35
Ïîòðåáèòåëüñêèé êðåäèò
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
cons
cred
it
2002m1 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1date
9 / 35
Ñ÷åò òåêóùèõ îïåðàöèé êàê äîëÿ ÂÂÏ
-30
-20
-10
010
ca2g
dp10
0
2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1date
10 / 35
Ìàññèâíûé ïðèòîê êàïèòàëà â íóëåâûå
11 / 35
Çîëîòîâàëþòíûå ðåçåðâû
020
0040
0060
00fx
rese
rves
1990m1 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1date
12 / 35
Âíåøíèé äîëã (ãîñóäàðñòâåííûé +÷àñòíûé)
2030
4050
60ex
tdeb
t2gd
psa1
00
2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1date
13 / 35
Íèçêèå ïðîöåíòíûå ñòàâêè â íóëåâûå
14 / 35
Äîõîäíîñòü ïÿòèëåòíèõ ãîñîáëèãàöèé
02
46
810
tbon
d5yr
2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1date
15 / 35
Ðîñò çàðïëàò è öåí íà íåäâèæèìîñòüñóùåñòâåííî îïåðåæàë èíôëÿöèþ
16 / 35
Öåíû íà íåäâèæèìîñòü
100
120
140
160
180
200
phou
se
2005q3 2008q1 2010q3 2013q1 2015q3date
17 / 35
Ðîñò öåí è èçäåðæåê ïðîèçâîäñòâà
18 / 35
Äåøåâûé êðåäèò ñòèìóëèðîâàëïîòðåáëåíèå
19 / 35
Îòíîñèòåëüíî íåáîëüøàÿ ÷àñòü ïðèòîêàêàïèòàëà íàïðàâëÿëàñü íà
ôèíàíñèðîâàíèå ÏÈÈ
20 / 35
Ïàäåíèå ÂÂÏ è åãî êîìïîíåíò âî âðåìÿêðèçèñà
21 / 35
Ðîñò ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê âî âðåìÿêðèçèñà
22 / 35
Ìàññèâíàÿ ôèñêàëüíàÿ êîíñîëèäàöèÿïðîâåäåíà â ñæàòûå ñðîêè
23 / 35
Ñíèæåíèå èçäåðæåê è ðîñòïðîèçâîäèòåëüíîñòè âñëåäñòâèå
àíòèêðèçèñíûõ ìåð â ýêîíîìèêå â öåëîì
24 / 35
Ñíèæåíèå èçäåðæåê è ðîñòïðîèçâîäèòåëüíîñòè âñëåäñòâèå
àíòèêðèçèñíûõ ìåð â îáðàáàòûâàþùåéïðîìûøëåííîñòè
25 / 35
Êîòèðîâêè êðåäèòíûõ äåôîëüíûõ ñâîïîâ(CDS) îòðàæàþò îöåíêó ðèñêà äåôîëòà
èíâåñòîðàìè
26 / 35
Ïðîöåíòíûå ñòàâêè äåíåæíîãî ðûíêàâñêîðå âåðíóëèñü ê íîðìàëüíûì óðîâíÿì
27 / 35
Êàê ðàáîòàë ïëàí âíåøíåé ïîìîùè
28 / 35
Áåçðàáîòèöà ïðîäîëæàëà ðàñòè äî 2010ã.
29 / 35
Ñîêðàùåíèå èçäåðæåê ñòèìóëèðîâàëîýêñïîðò
30 / 35
ÂÂÏ âîçîáíîâèë ðîñò óæå â 2010 ã.
31 / 35
Öåíû è èçäåðæêè äî è ïîñëå êðèçèñà
32 / 35
Ðîñò ÂÂÏ è åãî ñîñòàâëÿþùèõ âî âðåìÿâîññòàíîâëåíèÿ
33 / 35
Ñëèøêîì äîðîãàÿ öåíà?
34 / 35
Ñëèøêîì äîðîãàÿ öåíà?
35 / 35