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PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study
Rupture Source and Earthquake Rate Models - Introduction TI Team Evaluation Steve Thompson
Diablo Canyon SSHAC Level 3 PSHA Workshop #3
Feedback to Technical Integration Team on Preliminary Models March 25-27, 2014
San Luis Obispo, CA
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 2
SSC Elements for Logic Tree
Fault Model Deformation Model
Rupture Model Earthquake Rate Model Recurrence Model
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 3
Overview of Rupture Source and Earthquake Rate Models
Goals: • Capture combinations of fault sections that
may rupture together • Account for absence of behavioral information • Consider alternative approaches (e.g., LTSP,
UCERF2, UCERF3) • Generate earthquake size distribution on the
fault sources that captures the CBR of TDI
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 4
UCERF 3.3 Released late 2013 Data, Model, Methods
considered for CBR of TDI
Not a branch of Preliminary logic tree
Data, concepts are incorporated as a guide to Preliminary model approach
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 5
San Andreas (Cholame) Fault
UCERF 3.3. Rupture Participation Plot
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 6
UCERF 3.3. Rupture Participation Plot
Hosgri Fault
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 7
Rupture Model
Approach is to consider: • Alternative fault combinations (Rupture
Sources) that include the “Key” fault sources* • Intersection relationships with adjacent faults
• Relative “likelihood” of the alternative rupture sources
• Rupture Source slip rates should sum to fault slip rates (Deformation Model)
*Concentrating on the portions closest to DCPP
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 8
Different treatment for the three Fault Models
NE Model SW Model OV Model
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 9
Example of Rupture Model
(Outward Vergent Fault Model)
Consider ways Los
Osos fault may rupture with adjacent faults
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 10
Rupture Model OV-17
1. Linkages along strike No evidence for a
stepover greater than 5 km
2. Changes in Slip Sense along strike (“Complex” rupture)
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 11
Rupture Model OV-15
3. Rupture at different locations
(Dip differences)
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 12
Rupture Model OV-12
4. Splay rupture with adjacent faults
Possible combined rupture of Los Osos + San Luis Bay
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 13
OV Rupture Model Table OV
model Scenario Primary fault Other faults Rupture Category MFD Type Slip Sense
OV-01 Hosgri Central to MTJ Hosgri Central link Maximum ss OV-02 Hosgri West to MTJ Hosgri West link Maximum ss OV-03 Hosgri East to MTJ Hosgri East link Maximum ss
OV-04 Piedras Blancas, Western Reach Hosgri and South Hosgri Hosgri Central Piedras Blancas
Anticlinorium complex Maximum ss,rev
OV-05 Shoreline full Shoreline char Characteristic ss OV-06 Shoreline and Hosgri north Shoreline Hosgri North link Maximum ss OV-07 Shoreline and full Hosgri Shoreline Hosgri Central splay Maximum ss
OV-08 Shoreline N and San Luis Bay "Hockey Stick" Shoreline San Luis Bay complex Characteristic ss,rev
OV-09 Shoreline N, Hosgri, and SLB "max Hockey Stick" Shoreline Hosgri, San Luis Bay complex Maximum ss,rev
OV-10 San Miguelito, Wilmar Ave, Nipomo, and south San Miguelito Wilmar Ave, Nipomo,
Foxen Canyon, Little Pine complex Maximum ss,rev
OV-11 San Luis Bay, Mallagh to Shoreline San Luis Bay char Characteristic rev OV-12 SLB with Los Osos backthrust San Luis Bay Los Osos full splay Characteristic rev OV-13 Oceano and SWBZ Oceano Foxen Canyon, Little Pine link Characteristic rev-obl OV-14 Wilmar Avenue proper Wilmar Avenue char Characteristic rev OV-15 Los Osos full Los Osos char Characteristic ss-obl OV-16 Los Osos east and Edna Edna Los Osos East link Characteristic ss-obl OV-17 Los Osos West and Hosgri Los Osos Hosgri complex Maximum ss-obl,ss
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 14
SW Rupture Model Table SW model Scenario Primary fault Other faults Rupture
Category MFD Type Slip Sense
SW-01 Hosgri Central to MTJ Hosgri Central link Maximum ss
SW-02 Hosgri West to MTJ Hosgri West link Maximum ss
SW-03 Hosgri East to MTJ Hosgri East link Maximum ss
SW-04 West Branch Hosgri and Piedras Blancas
Western Reach Hosgri Piedras Blancas Anticlinorium complex Characteristic ss,rev
SW-05 Shoreline full Shoreline char Characteristic ss
SW-06 Shoreline and Hosgri north Shoreline Hosgri North link Maximum ss
SW-07 Shoreline and full Hosgri Shoreline Hosgri Central splay Maximum ss
SW-08 Shoreline N and SWBZ "Long Hockey Stick" Shoreline San Luis Bay, Oceano, Foxen
Canyon complex Maximum ss,rev
SW-09 Entire SWBZ San Luis Bay Oceano to Little Pine; Wilmar as splay splay Maximum rev
SW-10 SLB with Los Osos backthrust San Luis Bay Los Osos west splay Characteristic rev
SW-11 Wilmar Avenue and Los Osos East Wilmar Avenue Los Osos East, Nipomo splay Characteristic rev
SW-12 San Luis Bay, Mallagh to Shoreline San Luis Bay char Characteristic rev
SW-13 Los Osos offshore Los Osos offshore char Characteristic rev
SW-14 Oceano and SWBZ Oceano Foxen Canyon, Little Pine link Characteristic rev
SW-15 Wilmar Avenue proper Wilmar Avenue char Characteristic rev
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 15
NE model Scenario Primary fault Other faults Rupture Category MFD Type Slip Sense
NE-01 Hosgri Central to MTJ Hosgri Central link Maximum ss NE-02 Hosgri West to MTJ Hosgri West link Maximum ss NE-03 Hosgri East to MTJ Hosgri East link Maximum ss
NE-04 Piedras Blancas, Western Reach Hosgri and South Hosgri Hosgri Central Piedras Blancas Anticlinorium complex Maximum ss,rev
NE-05 Shoreline full Shoreline char Characteristic ss NE-06 Shoreline and Hosgri north Shoreline Hosgri North link Maximum ss NE-07 Shoreline and full Hosgri Shoreline Hosgri Central splay Maximum ss
NE-08 Shoreline N and San Luis Bay "Hockey Stick" Shoreline San Luis Bay complex Characteristic ss,rev
NE-09 Shoreline N and SWBZ "Long Hockey Stick" Shoreline San Luis Bay, Oceano, Foxen
Canyon complex Maximum ss,rev
NE-10 Los Osos wall to wall Los Osos Los Osos east char Characteristic rev NE-11 Los Osos with SLB backthrust Los Osos San Luis Bay splay Characteristic rev NE-12 Los Osos Los Osos char Characteristic rev
NE-13 Los Osos, Wilmar Avenue, Oceano, and SWBZ faults Los Osos Wilmar Ave, Nipomo, Foxen
Canyon, Little Pine splay Maximum rev
NE-14 Los Osos and Hosgri Los Osos Hosgri complex Maximum rev,ss NE-15 Los Osos East and Wilmar Ave Los Osos East Wilmar Ave. splay Characteristic rev NE-16 Oceano and SWBZ Oceano Foxen Canyon, Little Pine link Characteristic rev
NE Rupture Model Table
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 16
Rupture Model Each Fault Model has ~15 distinct
Rupture Sources that involve the key faults
The total fault slip rate is partitioned among the Rupture Sources. The partitioning is based on TI Team judgment about the relative likelihood of each rupture source
The methods to evaluate this forward model approach may include inspection of “participation MFDs”
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 17
UCERF3.3 Participation MFDs
1.E-07
1.E-06
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
Annu
al R
ate
of E
xcee
danc
e (y
r-1)
Magnitude (M)
Hosgri mean
Hosgri minimum
Hosgri maximum
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 18
OV: Rupture Model Rate Allocation Target Percent Allocation Mean Fault Slip Rates (mm/yr)
OV model Hosgri Shoreline Los
Osos-Irish Hills
San Luis Bay
Mean Rupture Rate (mm/yr) Hosgri Shoreline
Los Osos-
Irish Hills
San Luis Bay
OV-01 41% 0.75 0.75 OV-02 38% 0.7 0.7 OV-03 8% 0.15 0.15 OV-04 11% 0.2 0.2 OV-05 31% 0.05 0.05 OV-06 19% 0.03 0.03 OV-07 1% 13% 0.02 0.02 0.02 OV-08 19% 18% 0.03 0.03 0.03
OV-09 19% 18% 0.03 0.03 0.03
OV-10 0.05 OV-11 35% 0.06 0.06
OV-12 19% 29% 0.05 0.05 0.05
OV-13 0.15 OV-14 0.16 OV-15 52% 0.14 0.14 OV-16 0.05 OV-17 30% 0.08 0.08
100% 100% 100% 100% Sum: 1.82 0.16 0.27 0.17 Target: 1.82 0.16 0.27 0.17
P[S] 100% 100% 100% 100%
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 19
OV: Rupture Model Rate Allocation Percent of fault slip rate total assigned to Rupture Sources
OV model Hosgri Shoreline Los Osos-Irish Hills
San Luis Bay
Piedras Blancas-W
Hosgri Extension
Los Osos offshore
Los Osos East
Wilmar Ave / Los
Berros Oceano Edna San
Miguelito
Outward Mean
Rupture Slip Rate (mm/yr)
OV-01 41% 0.75 OV-02 38% 0.7 OV-03 8% 0.15 OV-04 11% 100% 0.2 OV-05 31% 0.05 OV-06 19% 0.03 OV-07 1% 13% 0.02 OV-08 19% 18% 0.03 OV-09 19% 18% 13% 0.03 OV-10 21% 100% 0.05 OV-11 35% 0.06 OV-12 19% 29% 0.05 OV-13 100% 0.15 OV-14 67% 0.16 OV-15 52% 70% 108% 0.14 OV-16 38% 100% 0.05 OV-17 30% 40% 0.08
~P(S): 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 110% 146% 100% 100% 100% 100% Seismogenic
Fault SR: 1.82 0.16 0.27 0.17 0.2 0.22 0.19 0.24 0.15 0.05 0.05
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 20
SW: Rupture Model Rate Allocation Percent of fault slip rate total assigned to Rupture Sources
SW model Hosgri Shoreline Los Osos-Irish Hills
San Luis Bay
Piedras Blancas-W Hosgri Extension
Los Osos offshore
Los Osos East
Wilmar Ave / Los
Berros Oceano Edna San
Miguelito
SW Mean Rupture Slip Rate (mm/yr)
SW-01 49% 0.9
SW-02 41% 0.75
SW-03 8% 0.15
SW-04 100% 0.2
SW-05 50% 0.08
SW-06 19% 0.03
SW-07 1% 13% 0.02
SW-08 19% 20% 0.03
SW-09 30% 32% 47% 0.07
SW-10 50% 43% 0.1
SW-11 100% 45% 0.1
SW-12 26% 0.06
SW-13 100% 0.2
SW-14 33% 0.05
SW-15 23% 0.05
~P(S): 100% 100% 50% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% Seismogenic
Fault SR: 1.82 0.16 0.10 0.23 0.20 0.20 0.10 0.22 0.15 0.00 0.00
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 21
NE: Rupture Model Rate Allocation Percent of fault slip rate total assigned to Rupture Sources
NE model Hosgri Shoreline Los Osos-Irish Hills
San Luis Bay
Piedras Blancas-W Hosgri Extension
Los Osos offshore
Los Osos East
Wilmar Ave / Los
Berros Oceano Edna San
Miguelito
NE Mean Rupture Slip Rate (mm/yr)
NE-01 41% 0.75 NE-02 38% 0.7 NE-03 8% 0.15 NE-04 11% 100% 0.2 NE-05 44% 0.07 NE-06 19% 0.03 NE-07 1% 13% 0.02 NE-08 19% 18% 0.03 NE-09 6% 7% 0.01 NE-10 5% 18% 0.02 NE-11 23% 59% 0.1 NE-12 27% 0.12 NE-13 23% 50% 50% 67% 0.1 NE-14 23% 50% 0.1 NE-15 82% 45% 0.09 NE-16 27% 0.04 ~P(S): 100% 100% 100% 76% 100% 100% 100% 95% 100% 0% 0%
Seismogenic Fault SR: 1.82 0.16 0.44 0.13 0.20 0.20 0.11 0.19 0.15 0.00 0.00
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 22
Example Rupture Model Rate Logic Trees
00.20.40.60.8
1
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10
Cum
ulat
ive
Prob
abili
ty
Slip Rate (mm/yr)
[0.101]
2.5 mm/yr
[0.244]
[0.244]
[0.101]
1.7 mm/yr
1.1 mm/yr
0.6 mm/yr
[0.309]
3.3 mm/yr
Branch Slip Rate (mm/yr) Weight
OV-01 (41%)
0.11 0.248 0.63 0.504 1.65 0.248
OV-02 (38%)
0.10 0.248 0.59 0.504 1.54 0.248
OV-03 (8%)
0.02 0.248 0.13 0.504 0.33 0.248
OV-04 (11%)
0.03 0.248 0.17 0.504 0.43 0.248
OV-07 (1%)
0.003 0.248 0.02 0.504 0.04 0.248
Hosgri Rupture Sources
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 23
Rupture Model Iteration with Hazard Analyst is
expected, and basis for the rate allocation will be an important part of documentation.
Hazard sensitivity will be important to show the degree to which this approach is hazard sensitive and how it may compare to more traditional, epistemic-minded approaches.
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 24
SSC Elements for Logic Tree
Fault Model Deformation Model
Rupture Model Earthquake Rate Model Recurrence Model
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 25
Earthquake Rate Model
Approach is to consider: • Alternative functional forms of the magnitude
probability distribution function (PDF) • Alternative maximum (Mmax), and
“characteristic” (Mchar) magnitudes to accompany each Rupture Source • Consideration of fault length scales and widths • Consideration of magnitude-scaling relations
Describes the size distribution of earthquakes (ruptures) that occur on the Rupture Sources.
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 26
Earthquake Rate Model – Two Rupture Model Categories
“Maximum” Rupture Sources “Characteristic” Rupture Sources
Rupture Model OV-15
Rupture Model OV-17
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 27
Magnitude PDF alternatives
Exponential Characteristic
(YC85)
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8
Annu
al R
ate
(yr-1
)
Magnitude
GR
YC85
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 28
Magnitude PDF alternatives
Modified YC85 (WACY):
Exponential Characteristic Tail
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 29
Earthquake Rate Model: Logic Tree for Maximum-Type Sources
Magnitude PDF
[0.9]
Modified YC85 (WACY)
Exponential (G-R) [0.1]
Char Magnitude Max Magnitude
N/A Mmax 2
Mmax 3
Mmax 1
Mmax 2
Mmax 3
Mmax 1
Mchar 2
Mchar 3
Mchar 1
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 30
Earthquake Rate Model: Logic Tree for Characteristic-Type Sources
Magnitude PDF
[1.0]
Characteristic (YC85)
Char Magnitude Max Magnitude
Mchar 2
Mchar 3
Mchar 1
Mchar 2 + 0.25
Mchar 3 + 0.25
Mchar 1 + 0.25
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 31
Earthquake Rate Model – Selection of Magnitudes Mmax and Mchar estimates are based on length
scales observed along the faults and estimated fault widths based on dip and seismogenic thickness
The length scales represent alternative hypotheses of “characteristic” earthquake sizes
Segmentation criteria are applied for the length scales following concepts such as:
Slip rate changes Fault bends and stepovers Changes in rake Fault intersections
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 32
Earthquake Rate Model – Selection of Magnitudes (cont.)
Lacking fault-specific behavioral activity, and acknowledging that segmentation criteria are problematic to defend rigorously based on empirical data:
1. Adding Epistemic uncertainty casts a broad range 2. Aleatory variability is added through the rupture
model concept
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5
Coun
t
Magnitude
OV Model, All Magnitudes, Branch Weighted
Mchar
Mmax
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 33
Earthquake Rate Model – Magnitude Distribution
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5
Coun
t
Magnitude
OV-Model, All Magnitudes, Branch Weighted
Mchar
Mmax
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5
Coun
t
Magnitude
OV-Model, All Magnitudes, Branch Weighted, Boxcar Smoothed
Mchar
Epistemic +
Rupture Model aleatory
+ Boxcar aleatory
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 34
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5
Coun
t
Magnitude
OV-Model, Hosgri vs. Everything Else, Branch Weighted
Everything ElseMcharEverything ElseMmaxHosgri Mchar
Hosgri Mmax
Earthquake Rate Model – Magnitude Distribution
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 35
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5
Coun
t
Magnitude
OV-Model, Hosgri vs. Everything Else, Slip Rate Weighted
Everything ElseMchar
Everything ElseMmax
Hosgri Mchar
Hosgri Mmax
Earthquake Rate Model – Magnitude Distribution
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 36
Earthquake Rate Model – Selection of Magnitudes (cont.) Magnitudes are derived from consideration of several
Magnitude-Scaling Relations, and rounding to the nearest tenth.
Magnitude-Area Scaling Relations are given the most consideration. Area scaling can be most closely related to moment, and log A + 4 fit the NGA database well.
Magnitude-Length Scaling Relations are given less consideration, as they are more removed from seismic moment, more difficult to use in the most hazard-significant M6-7 range, and don’t appear to fit the Area relations at any magnitude range. These may need additional evaluation.
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 37
Earthquake Rate Model – Magnitude-Area Scaling Relations Hanks and Bakun (2002) 𝑀𝑊 = log𝐴 + 3.98 ± 0.03 , for 𝐴 ≤ 537 𝑘𝑘2
𝑀𝑊 = 43
log𝐴 + 3.07 ± 0.04 , for 𝐴 > 537 𝑘𝑘2
Shaw (2009; 2013)
𝑀 = log10 𝐴 +23 log10
max 1, 𝐴𝑊2
1 + max(1, 𝐴7.4𝑊2) /2
+ 3.98
Hanks and Bakun (2014) 𝑀𝑊 = log𝐴 + 3.98, for 𝐴 ≤ 537 𝑘𝑘2
𝑀𝑊 = 54
log𝐴 + 3.30, for 𝐴 > 537 𝑘𝑘2
Wells and Coppersmith (1994) 𝑀 = 4.07 + 0.98 log𝐴 (all events) 𝑀 = 3.98 + 1.02 log𝐴 (strike-slip events)
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 38
Earthquake Rate Model – Magnitude-Length Scaling Relations
Stirling et al. (2008)
𝑀𝑊 = 4.18 + 23
log𝑊 + 43
log 𝐿
Wesnousky (2008) 𝑀𝑊 = 5.30 + 1.02 log 𝐿 (all events) 𝑀𝑊 = 5.56 + 0.87 log 𝐿 (strike-slip events)
Wells and Coppersmith (1994) – SRL 𝑀 = 5.08 + 1.16 log 𝐿 (all events) 𝑀 = 5.16 + 1.12 log 𝐿 (strike-slip events)
Wells and Coppersmith (1994) – RLD 𝑀 = 4.38 + 1.49 log 𝐿 (all events) 𝑀 = 4.33 + 1.49 log 𝐿 (strike-slip events)
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 39
Earthquake Rate Model – Selection of Magnitudes (cont.)
Plot of Magnitude Scaling Relations (From Shaw, 2013a)
WG03 data Red: W<15 km Cyan: W>15 km
Compilation data Red: HB08 dataset Cyan: Biasi et al. (2013) data
S09', W=15 S09', W=11 HB02 WC94 EB03
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 40
Earthquake Rate Model – Selection of Magnitudes (cont.)
Plot of Magnitude Scaling Relations (SSC TI Team)
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
10 100 1000 10000
Mag
nitu
de (M
)
Rupture Area (km2)
S09'_Wmax15S09'_Wmax19HB02HB14StrNZ08_Wmax15StrNZ08_Wmax19HB08 Dataset
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 41
Earthquake Rate Model – Selection of Magnitudes (cont.)
Example Table
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 42
Rupture and EQ Rate Model The methods to evaluate this
forward model approach may include inspection of “participation MFDs”
Considering guidance from
UCERF3.3 results
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study 43
UCERF3.3 Participation MFDs
1.E-07
1.E-06
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
Annu
al R
ate
of E
xcee
danc
e (y
r-1)
Magnitude (M)
Hosgri mean
Hosgri minimum
Hosgri maximum
44
PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study
Diablo Canyon SSHAC Level 3 Study
Thank You
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