2010 midterm election
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2010 Midterm ElectionWhat happened?
2010 MidtermRESULTS
60+ GOP seat gain in US House
6 Seat GOP Gain in US Senate
11 state leg. Changed GOP; 7 Governors to GOP
2010 MidtermWhat trends?
Does the Tea Party really exist?
How interpret?
◦Mandate for GOP programs?
◦Referendum on Obama?
◦Voters looking back in anger at economy?
Electoral context different in Washington
Obama net negative nationally
Obama net positive in WA, CA, OR
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Electoral context different in Washington
Republican Favorability near par w/ Dems nationally
Republicans viewed far less favorably than Dems on West Coast
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Electoral context different in Washington
Your vote express support for Obama, opposition to Obama, or Obama not a factor
Graph shows “support Obama” + “not a factor” as No
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The economy, stupid. And health care. Outside of the west.
Economy dominant everywhere
Huge increase over 2006
Any year, voters punish incumbents
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Voter evaluations of the economy
201015% family situation
“better” (60% Dem) 9% natl economy
“excellent” or “good” (77% Dem)
37% economy “poor” (68% GOP)
200630% family situation
“better” (71% GOP)49% natl economy
“excellent” or “good” (70% GOP)
13% economy “poor” (85% Dem)
Tea Party
No such thing as a Tea Party
Republicans
◦92% strong disapprove Congress
◦94% vote GOP in House races
◦13% blame Bush for economy
◦Older, male, educated, affluent, registered GOP
“Tea Party”
◦90% strong disapprove Congress
◦92%◦5% blame Bush for
economy◦Older, male, affluent,
registered GOP◦Hands of social
programs
No such thing as a Tea Party
Tea Party (?) 2010
◦ Older, affluent(-ish) voters angry at Obama about economy
◦ 12% under 30; 14% 30-39 (majority D)
◦ Only 3% first time voters 45% D, 43% R
2006, 2008
◦ Younger, less affluent voters angry at Bush about economy
◦ 18% under 30; 18% 30-39 (majority D)
◦ 11% first time voters in 2008 69% D, 30% R
Mandate?
Most important issue facing the country today?
Afghanistan, immigration in single digits
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Mandate?
What is the highest priority for the new Congress?
40% “reduce deficit” (65% R)
37% “spend to create jobs” (68% D)
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Surge and Decline: President’s party gain ‘on year,’ Lose in midterm. Avg= 24 seat loss in midterm
It Takes Seats to Lose Seats: 2010 looks like 1994, 1974,1946, 1938…. (but worse)
Public opinion after elections2010 weakest of weak mandates
Public opinion after elections2010 less about Obama than 1994 about Clinton, 2006 about Bush
2010 MidtermWhy surge and decline?
◦Presidential elections higher turnout
◦Many voters mobilized by presidential elections stay home 2 years later
2010 ->40% 88 million2008 ->62% 133 million2006 ->40% 86 million2004 ->60% 124 million2002 ->40% 80 million2000 ->54% 107 million1998 ->38% 75 million
Not many voters changing their votes…it’s who shows up
Marginal Dems Lost
Marginal seats = moderates
Dem more ‘cohesive’
GOP caucus also?
Greater polarization
GOP Gains larger than ‘expected’
Forecasting models Under-predicted 2010 GOP gains
Why?
Economy, presidential approval, ‘generic ballot’ not enough◦ Turnout?◦ fundraising?
A curious bit about pollingRepublican vote over-estimated in close Senate races
How did 2010 play out West?
2010 Midterm in US 2010 Midterm in WA
The Economy East of Rockies, huge
GOP gains +6 GOP US Senate +55 GOP US House
Limited referendum on Obama Ltd. angst about health
care
The Economy◦ West of the Rockies,
different story No Senate change +6 GOP US House
◦ Referendum on economy Not much care about
health care
Trends in WashingtonEvidence of slight GOP gain in Party Identification
GOP Gains in WA State Leg.Not on par with 1994
Steady decline in voter approvalWashington Poll data
Decline of economy, rise of issueWashington Poll data…several D seats 2006 due to Iraq
Least popular, most popularWashington Poll, 2010….few have heard of McKenna
What about 2012?
Economic Recovery No Recovery
Presidents clobbered in midterm who won
◦ FDR 1940, ‘44◦ Truman 1948◦ Reagan 1984◦ Clinton 1996
Presidents (party) who lost
◦ IKE/GOP 1960◦ LBJ/Dems 1968◦ Carter/Dems 1980◦ Bush I 1992
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