2020 bfg q1 webinar - bouchey financial group, ltd

2020 – BFG Q1 Webinar

Multiple Ways to “Distance”

Market Performance Recap

Stock Markets Q1 YTD 2019

Domestic Large Cap Equity Index 1 -20.2% -20.2% 31.4%

Domestic Small Cap Equity Index 2 -30.6% -30.6% 25.5%

International Developed Equity Index 3 -22.7% -22.7% 22.7%

International Emerging Market Equity Index 4 -23.6% -23.6% 18.9%

Bond & Commodity Markets Q1 YTD 2019

U.S. Bonds Index 5 -0.33% -0.33% 6.8%

Commodity Index6 -23.3% -23.3% 7.7%

1 Russell 1000 Index, 2 Russell 2000 Index, 3 MSCI EAFE Index, 4 MSCI Emerging Markets Index, 5

Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, 6 Bloomberg Commodity Index

Q1 2020 – Pandemic Impact

BFG Portfolio Tactical Positions

Overweight

U.S. Equities

Technology

Low-Volatility

Dividend Stocks

Cash

Underweight

International Equities

High Volatility

High Yield Debt

Coronavirus – Current & Future Impact

Covid-19 Trajectory

Source: statista.com – 4/15/2020

Covid-19- Per Capita Basis

Source: statista.com – 4/15/2020

Initial Jobless Claims –Unprecedented

Social Distancing Impact -Employment

Social Distancing Impact -Spending

Oil Prices Plummeting

Source: statista.com – 4/20/2020

Cars & Trucks – 40% Share

Current Environment

• Stock market is not reflective of economic conditions

• Job Losses – 26 MILLION in five weeks• We’ve now lost every job created since 2009

• 9 Million jobs loss during entire 2007-2009 Recession

• We can’t flip a switch for entire economy• Georgia today will be a good test case

• Need to be prepared for what’s to come• CDC predicts 2nd wave in the fall• Guidelines may be just as strict

Federal GovermentIntervention

Fed Response – Strong & Fast

Fed Intervention at What Cost

Fed Increases Bond Holdings

Source: All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets, Trillions of Dollars, seasonally adjusted. Weekly data as of 4/8/2020.

Interest as a % of GDP

Source: https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/who-pays-for-this/

Client Questions

1. I would like to hear from you regarding the Federal Deficit. Sometime this summer or fall the deficit is going to move to the untenable position of debt interest beyond GDP. How are you going to protect our investments in light of this?

2. Now that the federal government is passing out massive relief packages $2 trillion / $484 Billion, what may happen next to the US dollar this year 2020 / 5 years?? Any indicators yet regarding US dollar inflation compared to events in 1913 - 1940 - 1951 -1975 - 1979 etc.? This is not a simple question, at least until the economy settles to a new normal.

Debt & Inflation

Gold & Inflation

U.S. Dollar vs Gold

Source: Macrotrends

U.S. DollarGold

CARES Act – Key Points

CARES Act – Key Points

• Required Minimum Distributions are waived for 2020 for all IRAs, 401(k)s, 403(b)s & Inherited IRAs

• The taxing filing and tax payment date is delayed until July 15th

• Estimated tax payments due April 15th and June 15th are delayed until July 15th

• Up to $100,000 can be taken from a 401(k) or 403(b) plan either through a loan or a distribution if you or your family has been impacted by COVID 19

• If you take a standard deduction, you can now deduct $300 of charitable giving in 2020

Portfolio Perspective

This Recovery Will Take Time

Sectors Impacted the Most

Emerging Markets Outlook

Source: statista.com – 4/9/2020

Is a V-Recovery Possible

Source: statista.com – 4/15/2020

Expectations for Longer Impact

Source: statista.com – 4/15/2020

Recovery Similar to 2018?

Q4 2018 – Q1 2019

YTD 2020

Valuations Changing by the Day

What This Means Going Forward

V, U, L, W recovery?

How fast can we get back to normal?

Is there a new “normal?”

Client Questions

1. What specifically is the strategy to reinvest cash into back into equities? What metrics will indicate that move? When that time comes, what positions are you considering buying and/or adding to?

2.When would Bouchey Financial stock pickers guesstimate would be their choice as to a fair set of parameters to buy back in? I know you have no crystal ball..but your heads are better than ours.

Disclosure

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.. Please remember to contact Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd., in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services. Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd. is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Q & A

Follow-up Questions please contact us at:Office Phone: 518-720-3333

Email Contact: planningpaysoff@Bouchey.com