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56TH OMNIBUS POLL“The Benchmark of Maine Public Opinion”
217 Commercial St.Portland, Maine 04101
(207) 221-8877www.panatlanticresearch.com October, 2020
#1 Ranked Maine-Based Pollster by FiveThirtyEight in the 2014 and 2018
Election Cycles
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The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Table of Contents
2
I. Background 3
II. Methodology 4
III. Poll Results
National and State Political Climate 7
2020 Election 16
Coronavirus Pandemic 27
Other Issues 32
IV. Demographics of the Sample 35
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• Pan Atlantic Research is a Portland, Maine based, independent marketing research and consulting firm which is currently in its 36th year of successful operation.
• This Omnibus Poll is the 56th poll in a series of statewide polls conducted by Pan Atlantic Research on public policy, business, economic, and technology issues.
• Information contained in the Omnibus Poll is developed and intended for clients of Pan Atlantic Research, the media, and the general public.
• The research conducted for this Omnibus Poll was not commissioned or paid for by any clients or other parties. Proprietary research collected on other matters for clients (non-election issues) is not included in this report and is the sole property of those clients who commissioned it.
• For further information about the poll or usage thereof, please contact Patrick O. Murphy, President, or Jason Edes, Director of Research, at (207) 221-8877 or by email at pmurphy@panatlanticresearch.com and jedes@panatlanticresearch.com, respectively.
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The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
I. Background
3
mailto:pmurphy@panatlanticresearch.commailto:jedes@panatlanticresearch.com
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• The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll was conducted between October 2nd and October 6th, 2020.
• A randomly selected sample of 600 Maine residents (“likely voters”) was interviewed online. Participants were recruited using a panel provided by our vendor partner Dynata, a highly respected national research panel provider.
• Data were weighted using US Census Bureau data to match the composition of Maine’s historical voting population based on Congressional District, age, education, and gender.
• Each of Maine’s two Congressional Districts are represented by half of the sample. It should be noted that the sample size is more limited for each of the two Congressional Districts (300 per Congressional District).
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The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
II. Methodology
4
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• The survey was administered only to those who fulfilled the following criteria:
➢ Are “certain,” “very likely,” or “likely” to vote in the upcoming election on November 3th, 2020
➢ Are registered to vote in Maine
➢ Are ages 18 and older
➢ Do not, nor does anyone in their household, work for a market research, advertising or media firm.
• It should be noted that figures may not always equal 100.0 percent due to the rounding of decimals.
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The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
II. Methodology
5
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• After weights (for CD, education, income, age, and gender) have been applied, results based on answers from all 600 respondents have a margin of sampling error of approximately ± 4.5% at the 95% confidence level.
• The results are broken out by various demographic subsamples, including Congressional District, political party affiliation, age, education, income, and gender. The margins of error for specific sub-samples are higher than the ± 4.5% margin of sampling error for the entire sample.
• The margin of error for each Congressional District is ± 6.4% at the 95% confidence level
• Finally, we note that as with all surveys, these results are indicative of public opinion at a singular point in time and do not seek to project final election results.
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The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
II. Methodology
6
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III. Pan Atlantic 56th Omnibus Poll Results:
National and State Political Climate
7
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
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• Do you plan to vote in person or by mail in the upcoming November elections?8
In-person52.3%
By mail40.0%
Not sure7.7%
• 7.7% of respondents are not sure how they intend to vote.
• 51.2% of Democrats said that they intend to vote by mail compared to 44.8% of Independents and only 22.0% of Republicans.
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Intended Method of Voting
52.3% of respondents say that they intend to vote in-person in the upcoming November elections, while 40.0% of respondents intend to vote by mail.
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• What do you think are the three most important issues facing the State of Maine today? 9
Respondents most frequently named (1) the COVID-19 pandemic, (2) Healthcare access and insurance coverage, and (3) Jobs / Employment as the most important issues facing the State of Maine today. Data below represents the sum of respondents’ top three issues.
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Key Issues Facing the State of Maine – Top 3 Issues Combined
19.2%
22.4%
30.4%
36.5%
40.4%
43.3%
49.9%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55%
Climate change / Environmental issues
Education / Schools
High taxes
Cost of living
Jobs / Employment
Healthcare access and insurance coverage
COVID-19 Pandemic
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Favorability Ratings (4-Point Scale)
• The following are the names of some people holding public office in Maine and nationally. For each person, please indicate whether you have a “very favorable”, “somewhat favorable”, “somewhat unfavorable”, or “very unfavorable” opinion of them.
23.8%
17.2%
19.3%
19.9%
30.9%
31.3%
33.8%
17.5%
26.7%
32.2%
37.1%
30.7%
28.5%
32.2%
7.4%
25.8%
19.4%
12.5%
18.3%
16.1%
14.9%
50.7%
28.9%
25.0%
13.4%
11.3%
21.9%
12.0%
0.6%
1.5%
4.2%
17.0%
8.9%
2.1%
7.2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
President Donald Trump
Senator Susan Collins
Speaker of the Maine House ofRepresentatives Sara Gideon
Congresswoman Chellie Pingree[CD1 Only]
Congressman Jared Golden [CD2Only]
Governor Janet Mills
Senator Angus King
Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable Don't know
10
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
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Net Favorability (% Favorable - % Unfavorable)
• The following are the names of some people holding public office in Maine and nationally. For each person, please indicate whether you have a “very favorable”, “somewhat favorable”, “somewhat unfavorable”, or “very unfavorable” opinion of them. [Order was rotated.]
• Among figures tested, Angus King, Jared Golden, Chellie Pingree, Janet Mills, and Sara Gideon all have positive net favorability ratings.
• Susan Collins and Donald Trump each have negative net favorability ratings.
11
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Sen. Angus King +39.1
Rep. Jared Golden(2nd District Only)
+32.0
Rep. Chellie Pingree(1st District Only)
+31.1
Governor Janet Mills +21.8
Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives Sara Gideon
+7.1
Sen. Susan Collins -10.8
President Donald Trump -16.8
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Net Favorability – Governor Janet MillsBy District and Political Party Affiliation
12
26.8
16.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
CD1 CD2
Net Favorability by District
• The following are the names of some people holding public office in Maine and nationally. For each person, please indicate whether you have a “very favorable”, “somewhat favorable”, “somewhat unfavorable”, or “very unfavorable” opinion of them. [Order was rotated.]
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
70.8
29.7
-32.6-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Net Favorability by Party Affiliation
RepublicanIndependentDemocrat
Governor Janet Mills’s Net Favorability is +26.8 in the 1st Congressional District and +16.6 in the 2nd Congressional District. It is +70.8 among Democrats, +29.7 among Independents, and -32.6 among Republicans.
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Net Favorability – Speaker Sara Gideon and Senator Susan CollinsBy Congressional District
13
12.1
2.1
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
CD1 CD2
Net Favorability by DistrictSara Gideon
• The following are the names of some people holding public office in Maine and nationally. For each person, please indicate whether you have a “very favorable”, “somewhat favorable”, “somewhat unfavorable”, or “very unfavorable” opinion of them. [Order was rotated.]
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Sara Gideon’s Net Favorability is +12.1 in the 1st Congressional District and +2.1 in the 2nd Congressional District. Susan Collins’s Net Favorability is -18.3 in the 1st Congressional District and -3.2 in the 2nd Congressional District.
-18.3
-3.2
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Net Favorability by DistrictSusan Collins
CD1 CD2
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Net Favorability – President Donald TrumpBy Congressional District and Gender
14
-26.9
-6.7
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Net Favorability by District
CD1 CD2
• The following are the names of some people holding public office in Maine and nationally. For each person, please indicate whether you have a “very favorable”, “somewhat favorable”, “somewhat unfavorable”, or “very unfavorable” opinion of them. [Order was rotated.]
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Donald Trump’s Net Favorability is -26.9 in the 1st Congressional District and -6.7 in the 2nd
Congressional District. His Net Favorability is -23.7 among female likely voters and -10.0 among male likely voters.
-23.7
-10.0
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Net Favorability by Gender
Female Male
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Approval of Job PerformancePresident, Maine’s Governor and two Senators
• Do you approve or disapprove of the job [Donald Trump / Janet Mills / Susan Collins / Angus King] is doing as [President / Governor / Senator]? [Order was rotated.]
59.6%56.5%
38.6% 40.1%
20.1%
30.9%
51.5%55.7%
20.3%
12.6%9.9%
4.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Senator Angus King Governor Janet Mills Senator Susan Collins President Donald Trump
Approve Disapprove Unsure
15
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
59.6% of respondents approve of Senator Angus King’s job performance, while 56.5% approve of Governor Janet Mills’s job performance. Conversely, 51.5% of respondents disapprove of Senator Susan Collins’s job performance, while 55.7% disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance.
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III. Pan Atlantic 56th Omnibus Poll Results:
2020 Election
16
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
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2020 Elections Questions
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The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
• For each race in the upcoming November 2020 elections, respondents were first asked “If today were Election Day, who would you vote for?”
• Respondents who answered “don’t know” to this question were asked the follow-up question “Which candidate are you leaning towards voting for, even if you have not yet fully made up your mind?” Respondents who indicated a candidate preference on this question are included in each candidate’s total vote share figures in the slides which follow.
• This methodology follows empirically validated polling best practices.
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In the race for President, Joe Biden (D) is leading Donald Trump (R) by a margin of 10.6 percentage points. This margin is similar to that in other polls conducted in Maine over the past few months.
• On November 3rd, Americans will vote for President. If today were Election Day, who would you vote for?
• Which candidate are you leaning towards voting for, even if you have not yet fully made up your mind?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Joe Biden (D) Donald Trump (R) All other candidates Undecided
Total Vote Share 50.3% 39.7% 6.2% 3.8%
% Voting 50.0% 38.9% 6.0%
% Leaning 0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
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The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Presidential Election
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43.7%
63.6%
45.9%
27.5%
6.2% 6.4%
< 4-Year Degree > 4-Year Degree
Total Support by Level of Education
Presidential Election – Key Demographics
19
54.0%
46.5%
36.5%
43.0%
6.9% 5.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
CD1 CD2
Total Support by District
Biden
Trump
Other
53.0%
47.6%
36.5%
43.4%
6.7% 5.6%
Female Male
Total Support by Gender
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
• On November 3rd, Americans will vote for President. If today were Election Day, who would you vote for?
• Which candidate are you leaning towards voting for, even if you have not yet fully made up your mind?
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Presidential Election – Key Demographics
20
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
• Joe Biden leads in both of Maine’s Congressional Districts (by 17.5 percentage points in CD1 and by 3.5 percentage points in CD2). His margin in CD2 is significantly lower than in CD1.
• Those with a four-year degree or higher are significantly more likely to vote for Joe Biden.
• Female voters also support Joe Biden over Donald Trump by a margin of 16.5 percentage points, while Biden’s margin of 4.2 percentage points with male voters is much lower.
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Sara Gideon (D) Susan Collins (R) Lisa Savage (I) Max Linn (I) Undecided
Total Vote Share
46.9% 39.8% 4.9% 2.0% 6.4%
% Voting 45.3% 39.0% 4.7% 1.4%
% Leaning 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6%
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• On November 3rd, Mainers will also cast votes for US Senator. If today were Election Day, who would you vote for?
• Which candidate are you leaning towards voting for, even if you have not yet fully made up your mind?
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Senate ElectionIn the race for US Senator, Sara Gideon (D) is leading Susan Collins (R) by a margin of 7.1 percentage points statewide. The undecided level in this race is low—6.4%.
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Senate Election – Key Demographics
22
49.1%44.7%
37.8%41.8%
5.0% 4.7%1.4% 2.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
CD1 CD2
Total Support by DistrictGideon Collins Savage Linn
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
• On November 3rd, Mainers will also cast votes for US Senator. If today were Election Day, who would you vote for?
• Which candidate are you leaning towards voting for, even if you have not yet fully made up your mind?
80.0%
46.5%
13.8%12.6%
34.4%
81.6%
5.5% 6.3%1.6%0.3% 3.8% 0.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Democrats Independents Republicans
Total Support by Party AffiliationGideon Collins Savage Linn
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Senate Election – 2nd Choices
23
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
• On November 3rd, Mainers will also cast votes for US Senator. If today were Election Day, who would you vote for?
• Which candidate are you leaning towards voting for, even if you have not yet fully made up your mind?
• Which candidate would be your second choice?
Gideon(N=281)
Collins(N=239)
Savage(N=29)
Linn(N=12)
Gideon 12.5% 31.5% 7.4%
Collins 14.3% 12.5% 20.7%
Savage 35.4% 18.8% 62.4%
Linn 12.8% 10.8% 38.9%
Don’t Know 37.5% 57.8% 17.1% 9.5%
1st Choice
2n
dC
ho
ice
• Notably, a plurality of those who support each of the two Independent candidates in the race would support the other Independent candidate as their second choice:
• 38.9% of Lisa Savage supporters named Max Linn as their second choice. 62.4% of Max Linn supporters named Lisa Savage as their second choice.
• In the case of Lisa Savage's voters’ second choices, Sara Gideon receives 31.5% of these and Susan Collins receives 12.5%.
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• On November 3rd, Mainers will also vote for US Congressional Representatives. If today were Election Day, who would you vote for?
• Which candidate are you leaning towards voting for, even if you have not yet fully made up your mind?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Chellie Pingree (D) Jay Allen (R) Undecided
Total Vote Share 54.5% 34.8% 10.7%
% Voting 53.9% 34.4%
% Leaning 0.6% 0.4%
24
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
CD1 ElectionIn this race, Chellie Pingree (D) is leading Jay Allen (R) by a margin of 19.7 percentage points. There is an undecided factor of 10.7%.
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CD1 Election – Key Demographics
• On November 3rd, Mainers will also vote for US Congressional Representatives. If today were Election Day, who would you vote for?
• Which candidate are you leaning towards voting for, even if you have not yet fully made up your mind? 25
47.2% 46.7%
69.2%
37.2% 35.7%
28.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-
• On November 3rd, Mainers will also vote for US Congressional Representatives. If today were Election Day, who would you vote for?
• Which candidate are you leaning towards voting for, even if you have not yet fully made up your mind?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jared Golden (D) Dale Crafts (R) Undecided
Total Vote Share 60.4% 32.7% 6.8%
% Voting 60.1% 31.3%
% Leaning 0.3% 1.4%
26
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
CD2 ElectionIn this race, Jared Golden (D) is leading Dale Crafts (R) by a margin of 27.7 percentage points.
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CD2 Election – Key Demographics
27
64.2%
56.0% 55.0%
28.4%
39.8% 37.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
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III. Pan Atlantic 56th Omnibus Poll Results:
Coronavirus Pandemic
28
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
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• How would you rate the way that President Trump has been handling the ongoing coronavirus pandemic? 29
17.4%22.2%
9.2%
49.9%
1.3%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Verygood
Good Poor Verypoor
Don'tknow
• 85.1% of Democrats, 65.4% of Independents, and 21.9% of Republicans rate President Trump’s handling of the pandemic as “poor” or “very poor.”
• 62.7% of female respondents and 55.8% of male respondents rated President Trump’s handling of the pandemic as “poor” or “very poor.”
39.6% of respondents rated President Trump’s handling of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic as “very good” (17.4%) or “good” (22.2%), while 59.1% rated his handling as “very poor” (49.9%) or “poor” (9.2%).
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Handling of the Coronavirus Pandemic – Approval RatingPresident Donald Trump
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• How would you rate the way that Governor Mills has been handling the ongoing coronavirus pandemic? 30
27.8%
40.4%
15.1% 14.7%
2.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Verygood
Good Poor Verypoor
Don'tknow
• 86.7% of Democrats, 74.2% of Independents, and 43.2% of Republicans rate Governor Mills’shandling of the pandemic as “good” or “very good.”
• 67.4% of female respondents and 69.1% of male respondents rated Governor Mills’s handling of the pandemic as “good” or “very good.”
In Maine, 68.2% of respondents rated Governor Mills’s handling of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic as “very good” (27.8%) or “good” (40.4%), while 29.8% rated her handling as “very poor” (14.7%) or “poor” (15.1%).
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Handling of the Coronavirus Pandemic – Approval RatingGovernor Janet Mills
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• How concerned are you that you, a member of your immediate family, or a close friend will be infected with the coronavirus?1 Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/oct-6-9-2020-washington-post-abc-news-national-poll/e4e13300-1a85-4b08-ac26-5975d0de0d51/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2
31
6.9%
19.2%
37.9%
36.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Not concerned at all
Not so concerned
Somewhat concerned
Very concerned
• 46.6%% of Democrats, 39.3% of Independents, and 23.5% of Republicans rate themselves as “very concerned.”
• In the most recent ABC News / Washington Post poll (conducted Oct. 6-9)1, 65% of respondents nationally rated themselves as “very” or “somewhat worried” that someone in their immediate family could catch the coronavirus.
73.9% of respondents rated themselves as “very” (36.0%) or “somewhat concerned” (37.9%) that they, a family member, or a close friend would be infected with the coronavirus. 26.1% rated themselves as “not concerned at all” (6.9%) or “not so concerned” (19.2%)
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Degree of Concern about Coronavirus Pandemic
https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/oct-6-9-2020-washington-post-abc-news-national-poll/e4e13300-1a85-4b08-ac26-5975d0de0d51/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2
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• If a coronavirus vaccine were approved by the US FDA before the presidential election in November and was available for free to everyone who wanted it, do you think that you would want to get vaccinated in the first month after it becomes available for large-scale public use?
32
9.1%
21.0%
21.2%
24.0%
24.7%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Don't know
Definitely would get vaccinated
Probably would get vaccinated
Probably would not get vaccinated
Definitely would not get vaccinated
48.7% of respondents indicated that they “definitely” (24.7%) or “probably” (24.0%) would not want to get vaccinated within the first month after a coronavirus vaccine was released if that vaccine were released before the November election. 42.2% of respondents indicated that they “definitely” (21.0%) or “probably” (21.2%) would want to get vaccinated.
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Interest in Being Vaccinated Against the Coronavirus
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III. Pan Atlantic 56th Omnibus Poll Results:
Other Issues
33
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
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• Thinking about the way in which the president is elected in this country, which would you prefer?34
"Change the current system so that the
candidate who receives the most total votes nationwide wins the
election"59.7%
"Keep the current system, in which the candidate who wins the most votes in the Electoral
College wins the election"32.3%
Don’t know8.0%
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Preference Regarding the Presidential Election System
59.7% of respondents would prefer to change the current system by which the president is elected so that the candidate who wins the most total votes nationwide wins the election, while 32.3% would prefer to keep the current Electoral College system.
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• From what you’ve read and heard, how do you feel about the Black Lives Matter movement? 35
25.7%28.4%
15.8%
22.3%
7.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Stronglysupport
Somewhatsupport
Somewhatoppose
Stronglyoppose
Don't know
• 46.4% of Democrats, 20.4% of Independents, and 9.5% of Republicans strongly support the movement.
• 34.5% of those age 18-34, 30.3% of those age 35-54, and 17.8% of those age 55+ strongly support the movement.
54.1% of respondents “strongly” (25.7%) or “somewhat” (28.4%) support the Black Lives Matter movement, while 38.1% “strongly” (22.3%) or “somewhat” (15.8%) oppose the movement.
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Support of the Black Lives Matter Movement
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IV. Demographics of the Sample
36
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
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Demographics of the Sample
37
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Political Party
Democrat 30.9%
Republican 27.4%
Independent 36.1%
Other party 1.8%
Don’t know / Prefer not to answer
3.8%
Level of Education
High school diploma or less 34.8%
Some college / 2-year degree 31.0%
Four-year college degree or more
33.8%
Prefer not to answer 0.4%
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Demographics of the Sample
38
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Age
18-34 23.0%
35-64 32.8%
65+ 44.0%
Prefer not to answer 0.2%
Household Income Level
Less than $25,000 21.1%
$25,000 to under $50,000 27.6%
$50,000 to under $75,000 23.2%
$75,000 to under $100,000 13.8%
$100,000 or more 12.1%
Don’t know / Prefer not to answer
2.4%
-
Demographics of the Sample
39
The 56th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll
Gender
Female 49.5%
Male 49.8%
Non-binary 0.3%
Prefer not to answer 0.3%
Congressional District
CD 1 50.0%
CD2 50.0%
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