a first attempt to wp 5.6.2 preliminary results of one test case

Verification

A first attempt to WP 5.6.2

Preliminary results of one test case

Matteo Buzzi, Pirmin Kaufmann,Dominique Ruffieux, Francis Schubiger

MeteoSwiss

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09

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VerificationCompared model runs for forecast of 12.12.04

Model versions:Exp001Exp002operational aLMo (without TKE) and LMaLMo-TKE:TKE version opr at DWD + “last changes”

SYNOPtotal cloudiness, T(k=ke, 2m), qv (k=ke), Td2m

Model diffusion coefficients and TKE in the PBL at PayerneMeasurements from Payerne

SoundingT2m, T5cm

ANETZT2m, Td2m, (T-Td)2m, 10m-wind, total cloudiness

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VerificationShortcomings for conditional verification

Only one test case with:over the Swiss Middleland: low clouds (stratus) but not in the model forecastwind at 10 m and in the PBL very weakSYNOP verification not yet available as conditional verificationno precipitation

Verification

Total cloud cover

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Langen,

09

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VerificationTotal cloud cover +00 h (interpolated from IFS)

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Langen,

09

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VerificationTotal cloud cover +12 h (noon)

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Langen,

09

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VerificationTotal cloud cover +24 h (midnight)

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Langen,

09

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VerificationTotal cloud cover +36 h (noon)

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Langen,

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VerificationTotal cloud cover +48 h (midnight)

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Langen,

09

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VerificationTotal cloud cover +60 h (noon)

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Langen,

09

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VerificationTotal cloud cover +72 h (midnight)

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Langen,

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VerificationMean total cloud cover 06 - 72 h

Large parts of N Europe is covered by 100% cloudsexp002 has more clouds over N Europe

Obs exp001

exp002

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Langen,

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VerificationTotal cloud cover bias 06 - 72 h

higher values in exp002some better: N Germany, Polandsome worse: Italy, eastern ¼ of domain

exp001

exp002

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Langen,

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05 15

VerificationCLCT: exp 001, 002, LM

full line: obs (ANETZ) dashed black: 001, red: 002, blue: LM

obs (ANETZ)

001

002LM

Verification

Temperature

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Langen,

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VerificationTemperature at level 45 at +00 h (midnight)

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Langen,

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VerificationTemperature at level 45 at +12 h (noon)

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Langen,

09

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05 20

VerificationTemperature at level 45 at +24 h (midnight)

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Langen,

09

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VerificationTemperature at level 45 at +36 h (noon)

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Langen,

09

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05 22

VerificationTemperature at level 45 at +48 h (midnight)

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Langen,

09

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05 23

VerificationTemperature at level 45 at +60 h (noon)

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Langen,

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05 24

VerificationTemperature at level 45 at +72 h (midnight)

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Langen,

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05 25

VerificationTemperature bias 2 m 06 - 72 h

much lower values in exp002strong cold bias in exp002

exp001

exp002

Verification

Humidity

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Langen,

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05 27

VerificationSpecific humidity at level 45 at +00 h (midnight)

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Langen,

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05 28

VerificationSpecific humidity at level 45 at +12 h (noon)

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Langen,

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05 29

VerificationSpecific humidity at level 45 at +24 h (midnight)

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Langen,

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05 30

VerificationSpecific humidity at level 45 at +36 h (noon)

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Langen,

09

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05 31

VerificationSpecific humidity at level 45 at +48 h (midnight)

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Langen,

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05 32

VerificationSpecific humidity at level 45 at +60 h (noon)

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Langen,

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05 33

VerificationSpecific humidity at level 45 at +72 h (midnight)

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Langen,

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05 34

VerificationDew point temperature bias 2 m 06 - 72 h

much lower values in exp002strong negative bias in exp002 exp001

exp002

Verification

Vertical profiles Payerne (PBL)

Verification

12.12.2004 @ 00RadiosoundingEXP01 (00+00)EXP02 (00+00)

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Verification

12.12.2004 @ 12RadiosoundingEXP01 (00+12)EXP02 (00+12)aLMo (12+00)

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Verification

13.12.2004 @ 00RadiosoundingEXP01 (00+24)EXP02 (00+24)aLMo (12+12)

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Verification

13.12.2004 @ 12RadiosoundingEXP01 (00+36)EXP02 (00+36)aLMo (12+24)

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Verification

14.12.2004 @ 00RadiosoundingEXP01 (00+48)EXP02 (00+48)aLMo (12+36)

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Verification

14.12.2004 @ 12RadiosoundingEXP01 (00+60)EXP02 (00+60)aLMo (12+48)

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Verification

15.12.2004 @ 00RadiosoundingEXP01 (00+72)EXP02 (00+72)aLMo (12+60)

Verification

Model diffusion coefficientsand TKE in the PBL at Payerne

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VerificationTurbulent diffusion coefficients Payerne

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Langen,

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05 54

VerificationTKE of the lowest 3 layers

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VerificationTKE lowest 20 layers Payerne

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Langen,

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VerificationSurface and soil T

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Langen,

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VerificationTemperature in the lowest layers

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Langen,

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VerificationT2M: exp 001, 002, LM

full line: obs (ANETZ) dashed black: 001, red: 002, blue: LM

obs (ANETZ)

001

002LM

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05 59

VerificationT2M: aLMo, aLMo-TKE, LM

full line: obs (ANETZ) dashed black: noTKE, red: TKE, blue: LM

obs

noTKE

TKE

LM

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Langen,

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VerificationDP2M: exp 001, 002, LM

selected stations

LuganoSamedan

Chur Napf(Rheintal)

SionLocarno

Neuchâtel Stabiofull line: obs (ANETZ) dashed black: 001, red: 002, blue: LM

obs001

002LM

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05 63

VerificationDP2M: aLMo, aLMo-TKE, LM

selected stations

LuganoSamedan

Chur Napf(Rheintal)

SionLocarno

Neuchâtel Stabio

obs

noTKE

TKELM

full line: obs (ANETZ) dashed black: noTKE, red: TKE, blue: LM

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05 64

VerificationDPD2M: exp 001, 002, LM

full line: obs (ANETZ) dashed black: 001, red: 002, blue: LM

obs (ANETZ)

001

002

LM

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05 65

VerificationDPD2M: aLMo, aLMo-TKE, LM

full line: obs (ANETZ) dashed black: noTKE, red: TKE, blue: LM

full line: obs (ANETZ) dashed black: noTKE, red: TKE, blue: LM

obs

noTKE

TKE

LM

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VerificationSummary (Exp002 as compared to Exp001)

PBL at Payerne: especially during the night and in the first part of the forecast

reduced dry bias (less dry)reduced warm bias (colder)

SYNOP:increased negative bias in T2m and Td2mincreased regions with low clouds over land

Diffusion coefficients, TKE and T(ground till k=ke-2) at Payerne

Lower values in Exp002 (as defined in set-up)in temperature: extremely large vertical gradients and „erratic“ temporal behaviour (not understood)

ANETZ:Larger diurnal amplitude in T2m (colder during night)„erratic“ behaviour in Td2m at some locations in Exp002 and LM