a first attempt to wp 5.6.2 preliminary results of one test case
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A first attempt to WP 5.6.2 Preliminary results of one test case. Matteo Buzzi, Pirmin Kaufmann, Dominique Ruffieux, Francis Schubiger MeteoS wiss. Compared model runs for forecast of 12.12.04. Model versions: Exp001 Exp002 operational aLMo (without TKE) and LM - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Verification
A first attempt to WP 5.6.2
Preliminary results of one test case
Matteo Buzzi, Pirmin Kaufmann,Dominique Ruffieux, Francis Schubiger
MeteoSwiss
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VerificationCompared model runs for forecast of 12.12.04
Model versions:Exp001Exp002operational aLMo (without TKE) and LMaLMo-TKE:TKE version opr at DWD + “last changes”
SYNOPtotal cloudiness, T(k=ke, 2m), qv (k=ke), Td2m
Model diffusion coefficients and TKE in the PBL at PayerneMeasurements from Payerne
SoundingT2m, T5cm
ANETZT2m, Td2m, (T-Td)2m, 10m-wind, total cloudiness
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VerificationShortcomings for conditional verification
Only one test case with:over the Swiss Middleland: low clouds (stratus) but not in the model forecastwind at 10 m and in the PBL very weakSYNOP verification not yet available as conditional verificationno precipitation
Verification
Total cloud cover
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VerificationTotal cloud cover +00 h (interpolated from IFS)
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VerificationTotal cloud cover +12 h (noon)
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VerificationTotal cloud cover +24 h (midnight)
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VerificationTotal cloud cover +36 h (noon)
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VerificationTotal cloud cover +48 h (midnight)
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VerificationTotal cloud cover +60 h (noon)
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VerificationTotal cloud cover +72 h (midnight)
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VerificationMean total cloud cover 06 - 72 h
Large parts of N Europe is covered by 100% cloudsexp002 has more clouds over N Europe
Obs exp001
exp002
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VerificationTotal cloud cover bias 06 - 72 h
higher values in exp002some better: N Germany, Polandsome worse: Italy, eastern ¼ of domain
exp001
exp002
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VerificationCLCT: exp 001, 002, LM
full line: obs (ANETZ) dashed black: 001, red: 002, blue: LM
obs (ANETZ)
001
002LM
Verification
Temperature
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VerificationTemperature at level 45 at +00 h (midnight)
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VerificationTemperature at level 45 at +12 h (noon)
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VerificationTemperature at level 45 at +24 h (midnight)
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VerificationTemperature at level 45 at +36 h (noon)
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VerificationTemperature at level 45 at +48 h (midnight)
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VerificationTemperature at level 45 at +60 h (noon)
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VerificationTemperature at level 45 at +72 h (midnight)
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VerificationTemperature bias 2 m 06 - 72 h
much lower values in exp002strong cold bias in exp002
exp001
exp002
Verification
Humidity
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VerificationSpecific humidity at level 45 at +00 h (midnight)
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VerificationSpecific humidity at level 45 at +12 h (noon)
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VerificationSpecific humidity at level 45 at +24 h (midnight)
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VerificationSpecific humidity at level 45 at +36 h (noon)
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VerificationSpecific humidity at level 45 at +48 h (midnight)
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VerificationSpecific humidity at level 45 at +60 h (noon)
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VerificationSpecific humidity at level 45 at +72 h (midnight)
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VerificationDew point temperature bias 2 m 06 - 72 h
much lower values in exp002strong negative bias in exp002 exp001
exp002
Verification
Vertical profiles Payerne (PBL)
Verification
12.12.2004 @ 00RadiosoundingEXP01 (00+00)EXP02 (00+00)
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Verification
12.12.2004 @ 12RadiosoundingEXP01 (00+12)EXP02 (00+12)aLMo (12+00)
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Verification
13.12.2004 @ 00RadiosoundingEXP01 (00+24)EXP02 (00+24)aLMo (12+12)
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Verification
13.12.2004 @ 12RadiosoundingEXP01 (00+36)EXP02 (00+36)aLMo (12+24)
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Verification
14.12.2004 @ 00RadiosoundingEXP01 (00+48)EXP02 (00+48)aLMo (12+36)
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Verification
14.12.2004 @ 12RadiosoundingEXP01 (00+60)EXP02 (00+60)aLMo (12+48)
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Verification
15.12.2004 @ 00RadiosoundingEXP01 (00+72)EXP02 (00+72)aLMo (12+60)
Verification
Model diffusion coefficientsand TKE in the PBL at Payerne
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VerificationTurbulent diffusion coefficients Payerne
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VerificationTKE of the lowest 3 layers
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VerificationTKE lowest 20 layers Payerne
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VerificationSurface and soil T
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VerificationTemperature in the lowest layers
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VerificationT2M: exp 001, 002, LM
full line: obs (ANETZ) dashed black: 001, red: 002, blue: LM
obs (ANETZ)
001
002LM
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VerificationT2M: aLMo, aLMo-TKE, LM
full line: obs (ANETZ) dashed black: noTKE, red: TKE, blue: LM
obs
noTKE
TKE
LM
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VerificationDP2M: exp 001, 002, LM
selected stations
LuganoSamedan
Chur Napf(Rheintal)
SionLocarno
Neuchâtel Stabiofull line: obs (ANETZ) dashed black: 001, red: 002, blue: LM
obs001
002LM
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VerificationDP2M: aLMo, aLMo-TKE, LM
selected stations
LuganoSamedan
Chur Napf(Rheintal)
SionLocarno
Neuchâtel Stabio
obs
noTKE
TKELM
full line: obs (ANETZ) dashed black: noTKE, red: TKE, blue: LM
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VerificationDPD2M: exp 001, 002, LM
full line: obs (ANETZ) dashed black: 001, red: 002, blue: LM
obs (ANETZ)
001
002
LM
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VerificationDPD2M: aLMo, aLMo-TKE, LM
full line: obs (ANETZ) dashed black: noTKE, red: TKE, blue: LM
full line: obs (ANETZ) dashed black: noTKE, red: TKE, blue: LM
obs
noTKE
TKE
LM
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VerificationSummary (Exp002 as compared to Exp001)
PBL at Payerne: especially during the night and in the first part of the forecast
reduced dry bias (less dry)reduced warm bias (colder)
SYNOP:increased negative bias in T2m and Td2mincreased regions with low clouds over land
Diffusion coefficients, TKE and T(ground till k=ke-2) at Payerne
Lower values in Exp002 (as defined in set-up)in temperature: extremely large vertical gradients and „erratic“ temporal behaviour (not understood)
ANETZ:Larger diurnal amplitude in T2m (colder during night)„erratic“ behaviour in Td2m at some locations in Exp002 and LM