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A Healthy, Happy,Prosperous OntarioWhy we need more energy conservation2019 Energy Conservation Progress Report
Dr. Dianne SaxeEnvironmental Commissioner of Ontario
WEBINARMarch 29, 2019
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Who is the ECO?• Impartial, independent officer of Ontario legislature• Guardian of the Environmental Bill of Rights• Watchdog on:
• Greenhouse gas emissions in Ontario• Energy conservation• Environmental protection
• It’s my job to report the facts without fear or favour.
3
Environmental Bill of Rights (EBR)• Passed Dec 1993• Proclaimed Feb 15, 1994• Cut back April 1, 2019
• gives Ontario residents a right to know about – and a say in – decisions that affect the environment
• educational materials including logos, posters and bookmarks (EN/FR) on our website + EBR guide “Your Environment, Your Rights” in 15 languages
https://eco.on.ca/your-rights/
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What’s in the report?
Why Ontario needs energy conservationMaking utility conservation more effectiveOlder homes: the renovation opportunityUrban sprawl: the road to gridlock
1
2
3
4
Energy conservation policy in 2017 and 2018Progress on conservation targetsElectricity conservation program resultsNatural gas conservation program results
A.
B.
C.
D.
Chapters Appendices
#ONpoli#EnergyConservation
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1
1. Why Ontario needs energyconservation
Without smart publicpolicy, a lot of barriers
get in the way.
If energy conservation is goodfor Ontario’s economy andenvironment, why aren’t we
doing more of it?
6
1We’re foolish not to conserve
1. It is good for the economy
2. It is good for climate
3. It is good for health well-being
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1Money, climate, well-being:
Reduced Reliance on Fossil
Fuels
Public Budget Savings
Economic Growth
Lower Energy Bills
CompetitiveBusinesses
Energy Resilience
ClimateMitigation
Human Health
Majorbenefitsof reducingfossil fuels
Source: ECO
8
1Ontario’s energy intensity is improving (J/GDP)
80%
90%
100%
110%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Energy useEnergy use per capitaEnergy per dollar GDP
Source: Statistics Canada.
-19% per $GDP
-10% per capita
2007 ≈ 2016
9
1Reasons for shift
• Some improvement from shift in Ontario’s economy
(manufacturing to services)
• Also improved efficiencies
Source: NRCan
10
1Energy intensity high compared to other developed nations
Ontario could reduce: - electricity use 31% - natural gas use 26.5% over the next 20 years (at the same/less cost)
Source: Conference Board of Canada
Ener
gy In
tens
ity
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1¾ of Ontario’s energy is fossil fueledOther fossil
fuels (heating & industrial)
8%
Natural gas (heating & industrial)
28%
Transportation (gasoline &
diesel)33%
Transportation (other petrol)
4%
Transportation (biofuels)
2%
Electricity (carbon-free)
21%
Electricity (fossil-fueled)
2%
Wood (heating)2%
Fossil fuels
• Electricity & natural gas have conservation programs, building codes, appliance standards
• Action needed on transportation fuels
• Action needed on other fossil fuels.
Sources: Statistics Canada; NRCan ; IESO; MECP.
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1Huge cost of imported fossil fuels
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$ Bi
llion
s
Crude Oil Natural Gas Refined Petroleum Products Total
Sources: Statistics Canada, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, National Energy Board
2015: Ontario spent~ $16.8 billion
importing fossil fuels
13
1Energy efficiency good for the economy• Net creator of jobs• Fuels GDP growth• Helps lower home energy bills• Helps businesses & public sector reduce
overhead • Stimulates Ontario’s growing efficiency and
cleantech sectors
Photo Credits (L-R): Beau’s Brewery, Grand River Hospital, Samuel, Son & Co.
Source:: IESO.
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1Critical to climate goals
• Energy efficiency could achieve 40% of needed GHG reductions, globally (IEA)
• Ontario recently replaced GHG reduction targets with a non-binding target, more than 60% weaker.
Energy efficiency is the only source of energy without any negative environmental impacts.
15
1Air pollution and health
Traffic-related air pollution:
people near major roads at risk
Source: Public Health Ontario
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1Overcoming barriers
Source: ECO
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1Chapters 2, 3 and 4• improve utility gas & electricity
conservation programs
• help homeowners renovate their homes for energy efficiency
• direct municipal growth to existing urban areas with jobs and transit
Recommendation• Significantly reduce Ontario’s
bill for importing fossil fuels through energy conservation and fuel switching.
• Set targets for reducing Ontario’s use of each fossil fuel, track and report progress.
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2
2. Making utility conservation more effective
Can utility conservationin Ontario be
more effective?Yes, by focusing on programs
that maximize greenhouse gasemissions reductions and
by streamlining conservationdelivery.
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2Introduction
• Natural gas and electricity are Ontario’s second and third largest energy sources
• Natural gas-> second largest source of pollution
• Successful utility conservation for 10+years
• Recent cuts for electricity
Other fossil fuels (heating & industrial)
8%
Natural gas (heating & industrial)
28%
Transportation (gasoline &
diesel)33%
Transportation (other petrol)
4%
Transportation (biofuels)
2%
Electricity (carbon-free)
21%
Electricity (fossil-fueled)
2%
Wood (heating)2%
Fossil fuels
Sources: Statistics Canada; NRCan ; IESO; MECP.
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2
Electricity conservation savings
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Pers
iste
nt n
et e
nerg
y sa
ving
s (T
Wh)
Year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Pers
iste
nt n
et p
eak
dem
and
savi
ngs
(GW
)
Year
Successful utility conservation
Overall consumption 7% Peak demand ~10%
Source: Independent Electricity System Operator.
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2Natural gas conservation savings
Source: Enbridge Gas Distribution Inc. and Union Gas
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Net
per
sist
ent a
nnua
l nat
ural
gas
sav
ing
(mill
ions
m3)
Year
Union Gas Enbridge
Natural gas use would have been 7% higher without conservation
22
2
How can Ontario achieve 3.2 Mt CO2e emissions?
Now what?
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2Government Environment Plan
Source: Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks
18% of 18 MtCO2e ≈ 3.2 MtCO2e to come from expansion of natural gas conservation
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2Key question
Can utility conservation achieve 3.2 Mt CO2e of GHG emission
reductions?
25
2The government’s rationale?
• OEB study: natural gas conservation CAN reduce GHGs 3.2 Mt if cost is no object
• More benefits to customers
• Avoid spending on gas infrastructure
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
Gre
enho
use
gas
redu
ctio
ns (M
T CO
2e/y
ear
Year
Technical PotentialEconomic PotentialUnconstrained Achievable PotentialSemi-constrained Achievable PotentialConstrained Achievable Potential
Source: Ontario Energy Board
3.2Mt
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2Good news
Together, gas and electricity conservation CAN achieve 3.2 Mt
CO2e of cost-effective GHG emission reductions by 2030
27
2Electricity conservation is still important
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
GHG
em
isis
ons
from
ele
ctric
ity s
ecto
r, M
t of C
O 2e
Year
2.5 Mt of CO2e
2017 LTEP (with cap and trade)
2 Mt of CO2e
No electricity conservation beyond 2018
Electricity conservation activitycontinues (at 2015-2018 levels)
• Framework and funding cuts:• Projected 28% drop in savings from now
until end of 2020• No commitment yet post-2020
• Cancelling electricity conservation will increase fossil-fuelled electricity:
• increase GHG emissions by 2 MT
• Ontario should target electricity conservation to times of high demand, driving GHG emissions savings and system value
Source: Independent Electricity System Operator
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2We need electricity conservation when demand is high
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Midnight 6:00 AM Noon 6:00 PM Midnight
Onta
rio E
lect
ricity
Dem
and
(MW
)
Hour of Day
Spring Summer
On a hot summer week day between 4 am and 6 pm, electricity demand in Ontario can increase by 60%.
Between spring and summer, electricity
demand in Ontario can more than double.
Source: Independent Electricity System Operator and ECO.
Ontario’s electricity demand varies greatly by time of day and by season.
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2Electricity conservation to keep lights on
• IESO forecasting supply gap starting 2023• If electricity conservation programs cancelled, gap will widen further• Risk of maintaining reliability• More reliance on fossil fuel imports or building new expensive generation
Source: Independent Electricity System Operator
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2Conservation to keep cost down
Sources: Independent Electricity System Operator.
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2Beyond the silos• Collaboration between electricity and natural gas programs
• More energy and GHG savings, greater innovation, administrative cost savings
• Conservation of other fuels/fuel switching• 10% of province’s residences heated by alternative fuel sources (propane,
oil, wood)• A single administrator model for conservation of all heating fuels?
• “one-stop” shop for customers• Requires stable funding, strong policies and long-term commitment to
conservation• Post-2020 discussions should begin now
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2Recommendations
Deliver planned 3.2 Mt of greenhouse gas reductions from conservation programs by:a. growing natural gas conservation funded by ratepayersb. including conservation of other heating fuels and fuel switchingc. focusing electricity conservation on programs that save electricity
when fossil fuels are being used to generate electricity, andd. accurately measuring and valuing GHG reductions.
33
3
3. Older homes: the renovation opportunity
Must older Ontario homesbe drafty energy hogs? Not if we improve their
energy efficiency duringplanned renovations.
34
3Residential energy use
• In 2016, the average household spent $2,391 on home energy, totalling $12.4 billion for Ontario
• Residential = 13% of Ontario’s annual GHG emissions
21%
Energy use by sector in Ontario, 2017
Industrial
Transportation
Agriculture
Residential
PublicAdministrationCommercial andOther Institutional
35
3Why homes?
• “Homes” refer to low-rise residential buildings
• 70% of Ontario households live in these homes (3.7 million households)
• 83% of residential energy use is in these homes
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3Why older homes?
• Homes built in or before 2005 account for 86% of all Ontario homes
• Designed to use twice as much energy
• Not becoming significantly more efficient
• Though people love to renovate
37
3Building envelopes matter
• Necessary to achieve more than 30% reduction in energy use
• Changes to the building envelope are rare opportunities for improvement
Source: Adapted from Canadian Mortgage and Housing Council
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3Building envelope renovation benefits
• Comprehensive benefits for the economy, environment and wellbeing unobtainable by any other single measure
• Improving envelope before upgrading equipment saves money
Improved Building Envelope
Gas and electricity savings
Better thermal comfort
Better acoustic comfort
Protection from future utility rate
fluctuationsNew look for home
Energy equipment
savings
Lower greenhouse
gas emissions
Resilience to power outages
Source: ECO
39
3Conservation programs miss the envelope• Electricity conservation programs have been successful at
upgrading lighting
• Natural gas conservation programs allow envelope improvements, but residential participants have mostly done furnace upgrades
• Cap and trade cancellation has ended a source of funding for envelope improvements
40
3Homeowners want energy efficiency
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Buying appliances that are moreenergy efficient
Upgrading insulation, windows ordoors to make your home more
energy-efficient
Switching to a more energy-efficient home heating and
cooling system
Buying green energy to poweryour home
Very interested Somewhat interested Not very interested Not at all interested
Source: Environics Research
41
3But homeowners perceive building envelope upgrades as:
42
3If you’re already renovating, make it energy efficient!• Nearly half of all Ontarians plan to renovate in the next 12 months
spending an average of $13,600 per renovation
Source: Energy Step Code Council.
• Energy upgrades during renovations are lower cost and less disruptive
43
3Getting energy efficiency into home renovations
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3Renovations create local jobs
• There are currently over 300,000 jobs in residential construction and 175,000 jobs in home renovation in Ontario
• Ontario needs to renovate as many homes as it builds every year
• Lots more skilled jobs!
Source: National Institute of Standards and Technology
45
3
Ontario homes don’t need to be energy hogs if renovations
include energy efficiency
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3Recommendations
Ensure that:a. buyers know the energy use of their potential homeb. efficiency improvements are easy and low-risk for homeowners to
financec. the Building Code sets minimum levels of efficiency in renovated
homes, andd. renovation professionals have energy efficiency capacity and
expertise.
47
4
4: Urban sprawl: the road to gridlock
How can we save energy,shorten commutes, andimprove quality of life?
By building ourcommunities up and in,
instead of out.
48
4We need to talk about cars
• One fifth of Ontario’s emissions• Car travel is growing faster than
population• 4 out of 5 Ontarians commute
by car• Canada’s car emissions world’s
worst
Cars20%
Heavy Industry
19%
Buildings21%
Freight11%
All other sources
29%
2016 GHG emissions in Ontario
Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada
49
4Ontarians are driving more than ever
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Chan
ge s
ince
199
0
Year
Ontario population
Passenger-kilometres
Source: Natural Resources Canada
50
4Why do we drive so much?
• Mostly because of where we live
• 3 in 4 Ontarians live in car-dependent suburbs
• Cars often only option to get to work, shops, and school
Source: Danielle Scott / Creative Commons
51
4Media headlines focus on urban high-rises…
Source: Flickr / Mona P.
52
4But most growth is in suburbs
• Car-dependent suburbs grew 5 times faster than walkable/ transit-friendly areas (1996-2016)
• 86% of population growth in Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area on greenfield land (2001-2011)
Source: Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing
53
4Urban sprawl has high costsEconomic•Infrastructure and services•Traffic congestion•Lost productivity•Car costs
Social•Health impacts•Time spent in traffic
Environmental•GHG emissions•Loss of farmland and natural heritage•Wildlife decline
Source: Smart Prosperity Institute
54
4
Sources: The Best and Worst Cities for Commuting, and C.D. Howe Institute
55
4Driving is highly energy-inefficient
• Even those who must drive have options
• See our factsheet
~100%
99%
99%
95%
93%
87%
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Walk orcycle
Subway
Streetcar
GO train
Bus
Car
Emissions intensity (gCO2e/PKM)
Greenhouse gas savings from taking public transit instead of a car
Emissions Savings Source: An Wang et al (2018)
56
4Means a big carbon footprint
Source: Jared VandeWeghe and Christopher Kennedy, 2007
57
4What are the solutions?• Grow in, instead of out
• Higher densities• Shorter distances
• Greater mix of uses• Walkable urban design
Source: Ryerson City Building Institute. Note: average prices for the GTHA region as of July 2016
58
4Why not in Greater Golden Horseshoe?• Projected growth by 2041:
• 3.8 million more people • 1.5 million jobs
• Split into “Inner Ring” and “Outer Ring”
• Growth Plan sets planning framework for region
Source: Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing
59
4Growth Plan is supposed to encourage compact growth
Source: ECO, adapted from Neptis Foundation
• Ambitious targets to increase densities and reduce sprawl
• Policies support alternatives to cars (transit, walking, cycling)
60
4But the plan contains major flaws• Directs 1,000,000 to Outer
Ring with low densities, few jobs
• Growth forecasts 16% higher than actual growth (2006-16)
• Job forecasts way off
• Bad commutes will get much worse
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Ontario Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing.
61
4Plus poor implementation
• Few transit stations are meeting density targets
• Most recent growth is not close to frequent transit
• Many municipalities failing to meet “minimum” targets
• Limited reporting or oversight• No difference to the amount of
sprawl vs pre-Growth Plan
Do not support
any transit43%
Support bus
service45%
Support LRT or BRT
3%
Support subway
9%
Transit-supportive densities at 333 Growth Plan major transit station areas
Source: Ontario Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing
62
4Proposed amendment would make things worse• Weaker targets for many
municipalities• Simplified boundary
expansion process• Reduced opportunities for
public input• Removal of “climate
change” or “net-zero” wording
https://ero.ontario.ca/notice/013-4504?_ga=2.152808575.738976320.1553271485-563716315.1478705254
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4
CAN’T WAIT FOR THE ROAD TO BE WIDER!
FINALLY!
Road to congestion and gridlock
Credit: Andre-Phillippe Cote
64
4Recommendations1. Remove barriers to higher housing densities near transit and jobs
2. Revise Growth Plan allocations to direct more growth to existing urban areas with transit and jobs, and limit Outer Ring growth
3. Require municipalities to up-zone near transit as a condition of funding
4. Reverse amendments that reduce density and intensification targets
5. Regularly report to the public on Growth Plan performance
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Thank you and goodbye
• This is our last day.• ECO abolished on April 1, 2019 as per Schedule 15 of Bill 57
• Thank you to staff and external reviewers for helping us deliver an excellent report under exceptionally difficult conditions
• Not aware of current plans to take down ECO website• Hard copies may still be available
How to reach the Auditor General
Email:comments@auditor.on.careports@auditor.on.ca
Telephone: (416) 327-2381Fax: (416) 327-9862
http://www.auditor.on.ca/
Mail:Office of the Auditor General of Ontario20 Dundas Street West, Suite 1530Toronto, Ontario M5G 2C2
67
Mike.Parkes@eco.on.ca
@Ont_ECO
/OntarioEnvironmentalCommissioner
eco.on.caQuestions
#ONpoli#EnergyConservation
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