adbms sales forecasting and market research.ppt
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Advanced MarketingBiMBA 2006
Sales Forecasting and Market
Research
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Forecasted Sales reflect
1. The size of the target market
2. The marketing mix chosen for the
target market
3. The assumed number of competitors
and competitive intensity in the
target market
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Sales Forecasting
Key Terms in Forecasting
Market
Potencial MarketTarget Market
Market Penetration
Market Potencial
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Market Potencial
Tjere ate three aspects of market potencialMarket Enviornment
Market expenditure by industry
Market Demand
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Some more terms
Market Forcasts
Company Demand
Company forecasts
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SALES FORECASTING
Sales forecast Estimate of a firms revenue for aspecified time period.
QUALITATIVE FORECASTING
TECHNIQUES
Jury of Executive Opinion
Combines and averages the outlooks of top executives
from such areas as marketing, finance, production,
and purchasing.
Delphi Technique
Solicits opinions from several people, but it also gathers input from experts
outside the firm rather than relying completely on company executives.
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Sales Force Composite
Develops forecasts based on the belief thatorganization members closest to the marketplace offer
the best insights concerning short-term future sales.
Typically works from the bottom up.
Survey of Buyer Intentions
Gathers input through mail-in questionnaires, online
feedback, telephone polls, and personal interviews to
determine the purchasing intentions of a representative
group of present and potential customers.
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QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
Test Markets Gauges consumer responses to a new product
under actual marketplace conditions.
Allows researchers to evaluate the effects ofdifferent
prices, alternative promotional strategies, and
other marketing mix variations.
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Trend Analysis
Develops forecasts for future sales by analyzing
thehistorical relationship between sales and time.
Exponential Smoothing
Sophisticated method of trend analysis thatweighs each years sales data, giving greater
weight to results from the most recent years.
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Market Potencial Estimation
Y = n x ux p
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Making aSales Forecast
Market potential (M)
Proportion of market you are Targeting (T)
Extent of market Coverage (C)
Number ofUnits expected to sell per
customer during the year (U) Average Price per unit (P)
Sales Forecast is a function of:
Sales Forecast = M x T x C x U x P
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Marketing research Process of collecting and
using information for marketing decisionmaking.
Marketers use data from a variety of sources
to understand customers, target customersegments, and develop long-term customer
relationships.
Research is the primary source of informationused to make effective marketing decisions.
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WHO CONDUCTS MARKETING
RESEARCH?
Size and form of research often tied to
corporate structure.
Many firms outsource research needs.
Major U.S. marketing research firms include
ACNielsen
and Arbitron.
Syndicated Services
Organizations that regularly provide a
standardized set of data to all customers.
http://www.acnielsen.com/http://www.arbitron.com/http://www.arbitron.com/http://www.acnielsen.com/ -
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THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS
Usually follows a six-step process.
DEFINE THE PROBLEM
Well-defined problems are half-solve
Avoid confusing symptoms with problem itelf.
Loss of market share is a symptom;
reason for the loss is the problem.
Evaluate firms marketing mix and possiblechanges to the marketing environment.
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CONDUCT EXPLORATORY RESEARCH
Exploratory research Process ofdiscussing a marketing problem with
informed sources both within and outside
the firm and examining information fromsecondary sources.
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Using Internal Data
Research from customer surveys and
demographic data.
Sales analysis can compare expected
sales with actual sales and be analyzed in a
variety of ways, such as by customer type,
sales method, and others.
Accounting data provides information about
financial issues.
Marketing cost analysis evaluates expenses for
a variety of costs.
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FORMULATE A HYPOTHESIS
A tentative explanation for some specificevent.
Sets the stage for more in-depth research.
CREATE A RESEARCH DESIGN
A master plan or model for conducting
research.
Must ensure it will measure what researchers
intend to measure.
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COLLECT DATA
Secondary data Previously published
information.
Primary data Information collected
specifically
for the investigation at hand.
Primary costs more to gather but can be much
more valuable.
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INTERPRET AND PRESENT
RESEARCH INFORMATION Present in a format that allows managers
to
make effective judgments.
Researchers and end users must
collaborate toensure effectiveness of research.
Reports must be clear and concise.
Must ex lain technical terminolo .
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MARKETING RESEARCH METHODS
SECONDARY DATA COLLECTION
Secondary data comes from many sources.
Can be internal data or external data.
Government Data
CSO
Economic Survey
Finance minostry
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Private Data
Variety of sources:
Trade associations.
Business and trade magazines. Information gathered from scanning
technology.
Increasing use of radio-frequency
identification for inventory
control.
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Online Sources of Secondary Data Online databases.
Research aggregators acquire, catalog,reformat, segment, and resell premium research
reports.
Internet discussion groups, chat rooms, and
newsgroups.
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SAMPLING TECHNIQUES
Sampling Process of selecting surveyrespondents or research participants.
Populationtotal group of people a
researcher wants to study.
Researchers rarely sample the entire
population.
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Probability sample Sample that gives every
member of the population a chance of being selected.
Simple random sampleevery member of relevantgroup has
equal opportunity to be sampled.
Nonprobability sample Sample that involves
personal judgment somewhere in the process.
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PRIMARY RESEARCH METHODS
Choice of method depends on the issues under study and the decisions
marketers need to make.
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Observation Method
Researchers view the overt actions of subjects beingstudied.
Example: Counting the number of cars that pass by a
potential
restaurant location.
Use increasingly sophisticated ways of tracking
behavior.
In response to digital video recording, Nielsen Media
Research has changed the way it reports television
viewership.
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SURVEY METHOD
Researchers must ask questions to get information on
attitudes, motives, and opinions.
Telephone Interviews
Quick and inexpensive way of getting a small
quantity of relatively impersonal information.
Many people refuse to take part or are reluctant
to give personal information over the phone.
Not a viable option in international markets where
phone usage is rare.
Personal Interviews
Allow researchers to obtain detailed information and ask follow-up
questions.
May use mall intercepts, interviews conducted in shopping malls.
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Focus Groups
Focus group Simultaneous personalinterview of a small group of individuals,
which relies on group discussion about a
certain topic. Encourage general discussion of a selected
topic.
Valuable for exploratory research, such asnew product development.
Drawback is potential lack of honesty due to
peer pressure.
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Mail Surveys
Cost-effective means that allows respondents
anonymity.
Response rates typically lower than for personal
interviews and are time-consuming.
May be subject to bias through self-selection.
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Fax Surveys
Limited household use makes getting a good sample difficult.
Federal junk fax law limits fax transmissions for commercial
purposes.
Online Surveys and Other Internet-Based Methods
Allows researchers to speed the survey process, increase samplesizes, ignore geographic boundaries, and dramatically reduce costs.
Marketers are experimenting with Web questionnaires and
electronic bulletin boards.
No standard has developed for measuring Web use.
Some software can monitor a users viewing habits and display
targeted banner ads.
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Experimental Method
Least used method.
Controlled experimenta scientific investigation in which a researcher
controls or manipulates a test group and compares the results with those of a
control group.
Most common use is for test marketingintroducing a new product in a
specific area and then observing its degree of success.
Can be expensive and allow competitors to learn about new products
quickly.
Alternatives include computer modeling software, regional product
launches, and limiting product to a single retail outlet to allow for carefulevaluation.
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CONDUCTING INTERNATIONAL MARKETING
RESEARCH
Follow same basic steps as for domestic marketing research.
U.S. Department of Commerce offers reports and guides about almost
every country in the world.
Export America and Overseas Business Reports.
Researchers must be aware of cultural and legal environments.
May have to adapt research methods to local conditions.
Example: Focus groups may be difficult to organize in countries
where violence and kidnapping are common.
http://www.export.gov/exportamerica/http://www.export.gov/exportamerica/ -
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INTERPRETIVE RESEARCH
Provides insight into consumer behaviour and the
ways consumers interact with brands.
Researcher spends time studying the culture, calledethnographic research.
Focus is on understanding the meaning of the
product or consumption in the consumers life. Cost is higher than other forms of research.
Captures what consumers actually do, not just what
they say they do.
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COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY IN
MARKETING RESEARCH
MARKETING INFORMATION SYSTEMS (MIS)
A planned, computer-based system designed to provide decision makers
with a continuous flow of information relevant to their areas of
responsibility. Well-constructed MIS is the companys nerve center because it continually
monitors marketing environment and provides instantaneous information.
MARKETING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS (MDSSs)
Marketing decision support system (MDSS) Marketing information
system component that links a decision maker with relevant databases and
analysis tools.
Develops raw data into information useful for decision making.
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DATA MINING
The process of searching through computerized data files to detect
patterns.
Focuses on identifying relationships that are not obvious to marketers.
Efficient way to sort through huge amounts of data and make sense of it.
Example: NACCO Industries uses data mining to scan warrantyclaims for common problems.
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
Process of gathering information and analyzing it to improve business
strategy, tactics, and daily operations.
COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE
A form of business intelligence that focuses on finding information about
competitors using published sources, interviews, observations by salespeople
and suppliers in the industry and other sources
http://www.nacco.com/http://www.nacco.com/
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