advanced nowcasting capabilities richard l. carpenter, jr., ph.d., ccm weather decision...

Advanced Nowcasting Capabilities

Richard L. Carpenter, Jr., Ph.D., CCM

Weather Decision Technologies, Inc.

MDSS Stakeholder Meeting – October 2005, Boulder, CO

About Weather Decision Technologies

• Founded by research meteorologists in Norman, OK, in 2000

• Work with (and license technology from) research organizations

• Advanced uses of weather data and algorithms

Key Weather Questions

• When is the (snow, freezing rain, etc.) going to start?

• When is it going to stop?

• How much will accumulate?

Future Radar: MAPLE

• Developed at McGill University (Montreal)

– Exclusively licensed by WDT

Future Radar: MAPLE

Observed Predicted

Forecast of 2-hour Precip Accumulation

Observed Predicted

Comparison of MAPLE with Numerical Model (WRF)

Observed Accumulation WRF

MAPLE Skill Map

Blending of MAPLE and Models

• During the first 4 hours, MAPLE performs better than models

• After 4-6 hours, model forecasts are more accurate than MAPLE

• WDT is working with McGill to optimally blend MAPLE and WRF

Kilambi & Zawadzki 2005

MAPLE better Models better

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Operational MAPLE Forecasts

• Using NEXRAD Level II and Canadian radar mosaics

• 6 hour forecasts updated every 15 min

• 1 km grid

Conditional Precip Type

• Precip type (snow, freezing rain, etc.) overlay based on hourly updating numerical model (WRF)

MAPLE Precip Accumulation

MAPLE Nowcast MAPLE 4 h Precip Accumulation

(also available by type)

Hazardous Weather Alerting

60 min threat of ¾ and 2 inch hail 60 min threat of lightning

ETA/ETD (onset/all-clear) for a given location

Hazardous Weather Alerting

High-resolution Numerical Model Forecasts (WRF)

National Forecast

Regional/Statewide Forecasts of Temperature, Wind, Precip, and Weather

Mesonet data(e.g., DOT sensors)

5 km grid