advisory council on small business and agriculture · advisory council on small business and...
Post on 21-Sep-2020
1 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Advisory Council on Small Business and Agriculture
Federal Reserve Bank of New York 10th Floor, Paul Volcker Boardroom
Monday, August 6, 2018 AGENDA 10:30am Welcome and Review of Council Charter & Antitrust Guidelines,
Claire Kramer Mills, Assistant Vice President
10:40am-11:00am The National Economy, Richard Peach, Senior Vice President
11:00am-11:20am International Update, Matthew Higgins, Vice President
11:20am-11:40am Regional Update, Jason Bram, Officer
11:40am-12:00pm 12:00pm 12:15pm 12:15pm-1:55pm
Facilitated Discussion, Claire Kramer Mills, Assistant Vice President Adjourn to NWC Room-10F Lunch Round Table Discussion with John Williams, President and Michael Strine, First Vice President Introductory Remarks and Welcome from President Williams Group Discussion
Your experiences provide insight into current economic conditions. In considering each question, please reflect on the experiences of your firm, firms of similar size, and firms in your industry. Please provide a rationale for each answer. Sales Have sales volumes increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the first half of 2018? What are your expectations for the second half of 2018? Investment Has investment (e.g. plant, equipment, technology) increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the first half of 2018? What are your expectations for the second half of 2018?
Employment Has employment increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the first half of 2018? Have you faced any recent labor shortages that have limited the ability to meet demand? Please explain. What are your employment expectations in the second half of 2018?
Advisory Council on Small Business and Agriculture
Federal Reserve Bank of New York 10th Floor, Paul Volcker Boardroom
Monday, August 6, 2018 Prices Have input prices increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the first half of 2018? What are your expectations for the second half of 2018? Have prices of products/services sold increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the first half of 2018? Do you expect prices of products/services sold to increase in the second half of 2018? Financing Conditions Over the past two quarters, please describe financing conditions for firms of your size and in your industry. How have the terms and conditions for obtaining financing changed (tightened, eased, not changed)?
Outlook What is the most significant business opportunity you see in 2018? What is the chief growth barrier or concern facing your firm in 2018? Concluding Remarks from President Williams
2:00 pm Adjourn
Advisory Council on Small Business and Agriculture
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Monday, August 6, 2018
ATTENDEE LIST Council Members Donnel Baird Founder & CEO BlocPower Adenah Bayoh Founder Adenah Bayoh & Companies Kevin Ellis CEO Cayuga Milk Ingredients Gabriel Hernández Co-Founder and Head of Tax Division BDO Puerto Rico
Sarah LaFleur Founder & CEO MM.LaFleur Ranjini Poddar Founder & CEO Artech Information Systems, LLC Waleska Rivera President Danosa Caribbean, Inc.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
John Williams Michael Strine Jack Gutt Kausar Hamdani Richard Peach Matthew Higgins Sandra Lee Anand Marri Claire Kramer Mills Rosanne Notaro Jason Bram Edison Reyes
President First Vice President EVP, Communications & Outreach SVP, Communications & Outreach SVP, Research & Statistics VP, Integrated Policy Analysis VP, Executive Office VP, Outreach & Education AVP, Outreach & Education AVP, Legal Officer, Research & Statistics Associate, Outreach & Education
The views expressed here are those of the presented and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
US Macro Overview Richard Peach, Senior Vice President
Presented to Advisory Council on Small Business and Agriculture August 6, 2018
-5-4-3-2-10123456
-5-4-3-2-10123456
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Growth of Real GDP Four Quarter Percent Change Four Quarter Percent Change
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
2
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Real PCE and the Personal Saving Rate 12 Month % Change %
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
(left axis)
Personal Saving Rate (right axis)
3
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1980 1990 2000 2010
Household Liabilities over Disposable Income Ratio
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.
Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Ratio
4
Single Family Housing Market
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
020406080
100120140160180200220
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Index Level Months
Source: CoreLogic, National Association of Realtors, via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Single Family House Price Index
(Left Axis)
Months’ Supply
(Right Axis)
5
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018
Housing Starts and Existing Homes Sales Per Capita Units Units
Source: BLS, Census Bureau, NAR
Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Housing Starts
Existing Home Sales
.0178 (average over 1968-2003)
.009 (average over 1968-2003)
6
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Business Fixed Investment Four Quarter Percent Change Four Quarter Percent Change
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
7
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Manufacturers’ New Orders of Nondefense Capital Goods Millions of Dollars
Source: Census Bureau; Haver Analytics.
Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Nondefense Capital
Goods ex. Aircraft
(Left Axis)
Nondefense Capital Goods
(Right Axis)
Millions of Dollars
8
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
4 Quarter % Change 4 Quarter % Change
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Federal
State and Local
Real Government Consumption and Gross Investment
9
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Real Imports and Exports 4-Quarter Percent Change
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.
Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Imports (Left Axis)
Exports (Right Axis)
4-Quarter Percent Change
10
30
40
50
60
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
12 Month % Change Index
Source: Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve Board via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
ISM Manufacturing Index
(Right Axis)
Industrial Production: Manufacturing
(Left Axis)
Manufacturing and ISM Manufacturing Index
11
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Labor Market Indicators Percent Percent
Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Unemployment Rate (Left Axis)
Labor Force Participation Rate
(Right Axis)
Employment to Population Ratio
(Right Axis)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Payroll Employment and Aggregate Hours 12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change
Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Payroll Employment
Aggregate Hours
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
13
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Openings/Unemployed and Quits/Separations Percent Fraction
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Quits/Separations (Left Axis)
Job Openings/Unemployed (Right Axis)
14
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Annual % change Annual % change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Average Hourly Earnings
Employment Cost Index:
Private Sector Wages & Salaries
Growth of Average Hourly Earnings and ECI
15
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Core PCE Deflator
FOMC Objective for Headline PCE Inflation
Measure of Underlying PCE Price Inflation
16
-1.2-0.8-0.400.40.81.21.622.42.83.2
-1.2-0.8-0.4
00.40.81.21.6
22.42.83.2
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Core PCE Deflator Inflation 12-Mo % Change
Source: BEA; Haver Analytics.
Core
Goods excl. Food & Energy
Services excl. Energy
12-Mo % Change
17
1
Global Economic Outlook
Small Business and Agricultural Advisory Council Matthew Higgins, 6 August 2018
The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System
Roadmap
Update on the global economic and industrial cycle
Inflation and labor market trends in the advanced economies
Implications of recent U.S. tariff measures
China’s development and policy challenges
2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
China
Percent SAAR
Other EMEs
Advanced Economies ex. U.S.
Sources: national sources, staff calculations. Q2 growth rates for most foreign economies reflect staff estimates.
Global GDP Growth
1.7
2.7
6.1
2nd quarter
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Percent SAAR
Global GDP Growth and Composite PMI
GDP Growth
Composite PMI
Correlation = 0.83
Sources: national sources, Markit Economics
July
Diffusion Index
3
47.5
50.0
52.5
55.0
57.5
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Diffusion Index
Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs
Source: Markit Economics.
52.7
July
54.0
Services
Manufacturing
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
01-17 04-17 07-17 10-17 01-18 04-18 07-18
Percent positive or negative*
Citigroup Economic Surprise Indexes
Advanced Economies
Emerging Economies
*Weighted by series’ historical FX impact
4
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Percent, CY/CY
Evolution of Global Market Growth Forecasts
20142013
2015
2012
Sources: Blue Chip Economics, Consensus Economics. Figures are GDP-weighted averages for five AEs (counting the euro area as one economy) and 25 EMEs.
2016
2017 20182019
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Percent change from year ago
G-3: Core Consumer Price Inflation
Japan
United States
Euro Area
Sources: BEA, Eurostat, BoJ. U.S. inflation measured using the PCE index.
1.9
1.1
0.2
5
2
4
6
8
10
12
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Percent change from year ago
G-3 Unemployment Rates
Japan
United States
Euro Area
Sources: BLS, CBO, Eurostat, BoJ.
Official NAIRU estimates
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Percent active, ages 25-54
Male Prime-Age (25-54) Labor Force Participation
Japan
United States
Euro Area
Sources: OECD, BLS.
95.6
88.9
91.5
6
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Percent active, ages 25-54
Female Prime-Age (25-54) Labor Force Participation
JapanUnited States
Euro Area
Sources: OECD, BLS.
78.7
75.3
79.7
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Percent active, ages 55-64
Mature Adult (55-64) Labor Force Participation
Japan
United States
Euro Area
Sources: OECD, BLS.
77.1
65.0
62.3
7
47.5
50.0
52.5
55.0
57.5
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Diffusion Index
Manufacturing New Orders
Source: Markit Economics, JPMorgan.
52.5
July
50.3
New Export Orders
New Orders
Recent U.S. Tariff Measures
Product Rate
Value affected
($ bn)
Share of U.S.
imports
Enacted
Steel 25% 29 1.2%
Aluminum 10% 23 1.0%
Various 25% 50 2.1%
Proposed
Various 10% 200 8.5%
Source: Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
8
Capital goods29%
Intermediate goods47%
Others1%
Consumer goods23%
Notes: Based on July 10 list. Harmonized System [HS] 8-digit tariff code is converted to Broad Economic Categories (BEC) code, using the correspondence table at https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/classifications/correspondence-tables.asp.
Sources: United States International Trade Commission (USITC) Dataweb. Others include BEC 7 (Health, pharmaceuticals, education, cultural, sport), 12 and 32 (services in food and beverages, and services in construction, wood, glass, stone, metals, housing and furnitures) and HS codes that have no match with BEC code.
Total = $197 bn
U.S. imports from China subject to Section 301 tariffs by type $U.S. bn
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Percent at purchasing power parity
Real GDP per Capita Relative to United States
China
Brazil
Korea
Sources: Penn World Tables, IMF World Economic Outlook database.
Turkey
9
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17
Percent of GDP
Credit to Private Nonfinancial Sector
Other EMEs
China
Sources: OECD, BLS.
Advanced Economies
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Percent change from a year earlier
China: Total Financing Growth
Sources: CEIC, PBoC, Moody’s.
Adjusted for local gov’t bond swaps
Reported TSF
10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Percent change from a year earlier
China: Fixed Asset Investment
Source: Monthly index computed from official year-year year-to-date changes. Real series deflated by linearly interpolated quarterly FAI price series.
Real
Nominal
Regional Economic Conditions Jason Bram, Research Officer
Small Business & Agriculture Advisory Group Meeting – August 6, 2018
The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
Private-Sector Job Trends Percent Change From Previous Peak to June 2018
AL
Down Flat Up to 3% Up 3% to 7% Up More Than 7%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
AK FL
HI
PR
AZ AR
CA CO
CT NJ DE MD
GA
ID
IL IN
IA
KS KY
LA
ME
VT NH MA RI MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE NV
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
1
Recent Private-Sector Job Trends Year-Over-Year Percent Change as of June 2018
AL
Down Flat Up to 1.25% Up 1.25% to 2% Up More Than 2%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
AK FL
HI
PR
AZ AR
CA CO
CT NJ DE MD
GA
ID
IL IN
IA
KS KY
LA
ME
VT NH MA RI MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE NV
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
2
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
FRBNY Business Surveys, Current Conditions Diffusion Index
60
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Business Leaders Survey
Current Economic Conditions
Jul
3
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Business Leaders Survey
Future Economic Conditions FRBNY Business Surveys, Conditions Six Months Ahead
Diffusion Index
Jul
4
9,275
9,400
9,525
9,650
9,775
Jan16 |
Jul16 |
Jan17 |
Jul17 |
Jan18 |
Jul18 |
Early Benchmark
Estimate
Official BLS
Estimate 4,275
4,350
4,425
4,500
4,575
Jan16 |
Jul16 |
Jan17 |
Jul17 |
Jan18 |
Jul18 |
2,285
2,300
2,315
2,330
2,345
Jan16 |
Jul16 |
Jan17 |
Jul17 |
Jan18 |
Jul18 | 4,025
4,075
4,125
4,175
4,225
Jan16 |
Jul16 |
Jan17 |
Jul17 |
Jan18 |
Jul18 |
Total Employment in Thousands, Jun 2018 (QCEW Q42017)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Economy.com, and FRBNY calculations.
FRBNY Early Employment Benchmark
New York State
Upstate NY
New York City
New Jersey
5
458
462
466
470
474
Jan16 |
Jul16
Official BLS
Estimate |
Jan17 |
Jul17 |
Jan18 |
Jul18 |
Early Benchmark
Estimate
525
530
535
540
545
Jan16 |
Jul16 |
Jan17 |
Jul17 |
Jan18 |
Jul18 |
313
316
319
322
325
Jan16 |
Jul16 |
Jan17 |
Jul17 |
Jan18 |
Jul18 | 556
560
564
568
572
Jan16 |
Jul16 |
Jan17 |
Jul17 |
Jan18 |
Jul18 |
Total Employment in Thousands, Jun 2018 (QCEW Q42017)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Economy.com, and FRBNY calculations.
FRBNY Early Employment Benchmark
Syracuse
Albany Rochester
Buffalo
6
825
850
875
900
925
Jan16 |
Jul16 |
Jan17 |
Jul17 |
Jan18 |
Jul18 |
Early Benchmark
Estimate Official
BLS Estimate
33
35
37
39
41
Jan16 |
Jul16 |
Jan17 |
Jul17 |
Jan18 |
Jul18 |
Total Employment in Thousands, Jun 2018 (QCEW Q42017)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Economy.com, and FRBNY calculations.
FRBNY Early Employment Benchmark
U.S. Virgin Islands Puerto Rico
7
80
85
90
95
100
105
115 110
120
2007 2008 2009 2019
Total Employment
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
New York
New York City
United States
New Jersey
Puerto Rico
Seasonally Adjusted Index
Jun
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com; data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff.
Index (Dec2007=100)
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990
Shading indicates NBER recession
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
New York State
New York City
United States
New Jersey
Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted
Jun
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
Percent
9
55
60
65
70
1990
Shading indicates NBER recession
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
New York State New York City
United States New Jersey
Labor Force Participation Seasonally Adjusted
Jun
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
Percent
10
60
80
100
120
140
2006 2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
United States
Albany
Rochester
Upstate NY
Buffalo
Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted
Index (Mar2006=100) 160
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales).
May
11
60
70
80
90
100
110
2006 2007 2008 2009 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted
Index (Mar2006=100) 120
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales).
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013
United States
NYC Metro
Fairfield
Westchester
Rockland
May
12
New Jersey
60
80
100
120
140
160
2006 2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Suffolk United States
Nassau Queens
Manhattan
Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted
Index (Mar2006=100) 180
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales).
Kings
May
13
Update on Puerto Rico & Virgin Islands
• Irma & Maria caused substantial damage and disruption: – Widespread damage to homes, businesses, infrastructure, crops, etc.
– More than 1,000 lost lives, attributable to the storms, in Puerto Rico.
– Puerto Rico’s power outage has been the biggest, by far, in US history.
• How is the recovery proceeding? – How severe were job losses and how much of a rebound have we seen?
– What industries were most affected in both areas?
– How many people left following the storms?
– What can satellite imagery of nighttime lights tell us about the persistence and geographic breadth of the disruption?
14
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30Months Before/After Hurricane
Employment Paths After Hurricanes Index (Month Before Hurricane = 100), Seasonally Adjusted
US Virgin Islands (Irma/Maria – Sep. 2017)
US Virgin Islands (Marilyn – Sep. 1995)
US Virgin Islands (Hugo – Sep. 1989)
New Orleans Metro (Katrina – Aug. 2005)
Puerto Rico (Maria – Sep. 2017)
15
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's economy.com Data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff
200
207
214
221
228
235
242
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18
Puerto Rico: Recent Employment Trends Thousands of Jobs, Seasonally Adjusted
Government (right scale)
Private Sector (left scale)
16
10.0
10.2
10.4
10.6
10.8
11.0
11.2
11.4
11.6
11.8
12.0
23.0
23.5
24.0
24.5
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18
Government (right scale)
Private Sector (left scale)
US Virgin Islands: Recent Employment Trends Thousands of Jobs, Seasonally Adjusted
17
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18
Puerto Rico Job Shortfall by Sector Since Maria Thousands of Jobs lost since Aug. 2017 (Before Maria), S.A.
Leisure & Hospitality
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Education & Health Govt.
All Other Private
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's economy.com, FRBNY Staff Calculations Data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff
Net Job Shortfall (June): 20,000 or 2.3%
18
Net Job Shortfall (June): 3,500
or 9.0%
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18
USVI Job Shortfall by Sector Since Maria Thousands of Jobs lost since Aug. 2017 (Before Maria), S.A.
Leisure & Hospitality
Retail Trade
Education & Health
Govt.
All Other Private
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's economy.com, FRBNY Staff Calculations Data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff
19
-300,000
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Sep.
Dec.
Oct. For the 12 months ending in April, 165,000 more people flew out of than into Puerto Rico—
about 105,000 above trend.
Apr
Net Domestic Air Passengers to (from) Puerto Rico 12-Month Rolling Sum
20 Note: Airports are Luis Munoz Marin Intl Airport in San Juan, Mercedita Intl Airport in Ponce, and Rafael Hernandez Intl Airport in Aguadilla . Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and FRBNY staff calculations.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18
2017-2018 Monthly FlowsUsual Monthly Flows
Gross Domestic Air Passengers to Puerto Rico
21 Note: Airports are Luis Munoz Marin Intl Airport in San Juan, Mercedita Intl Airport in Ponce, and Rafael Hernandez Intl Airport in Aguadilla. Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and FRBNY staff calculations.
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Sep.
Dec.
Oct. For the 12 months ending in
April, 13,000 more people flew out of than into the US Virgin Islands.
Apr
Net Domestic Air Passengers to (from) USVI 12-Month Rolling Sum
22 Note: Airports are Cyril E King Airport in St. Thomas and Henry E Rohlsen Airport in St. Croix. Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and FRBNY staff calculations.
23
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18
2017-2018 Monthly FlowsUsual Monthly Flows
Gross Domestic Air Passengers to US Virgin Islands
Note: Airports are Cyril E King Airport in St. Thomas and Henry E Rohlsen Airport in St. Croix. Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and FRBNY staff calculations.
Regional Recap • New York City remains the leader in job growth in the region.
• Areas adjacent to NYC have also seen fairly strong growth, while most of upstate NY has seen little or no job growth.
• Northern NJ has remains on a modest growth trajectory.
• Housing markets remain fairly robust in New York City and parts of upstate New York.
• Puerto Rico’s economy, though still weak, appears to have rebounded much of the way from hurricanes Irma & Maria.
• In contrast, the Virgin Islands’ economy has lagged—in part due to its high dependence on tourism.
24
top related