against the flow: new power dynamics in the nile basin

Against the flow: Against the flow: new power dynamics in the Nile Basinnew power dynamics in the Nile Basin

EPD SeminarsKing’s College London1st November 2011

Ana Elisa CascãoAna Elisa CascãoStockholm International Water InstituteStockholm International Water Institute

The Nile River BasinThe Nile River Basin

THE REGIONTHE REGION

10+1 riparian states160 million inhabitantsUnderdeveloped (but growing) economiesConflict-stricken regionLow levels of regional integrationComplex hydropolitics

THE REGIONTHE REGION

10+1 riparian states160 million inhabitantsUnderdeveloped (but growing) economiesConflict-stricken regionLow levels of regional integrationComplex hydropolitics

abc of Nile Basin Hydropolitics

• Uneven distribution

• Inequitable utilisation

• Water = Politics• Water = National Security• Water = Sovereignty

• Power asymmetries• Hydro-Hegemony

• Problematic water agreements

• Past: conflicts• Water-Sharing:

political priority

SECURITISATION

HYDRO-SOVEREIGNTY COOPERATION

Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011

Egypt:‘Hydraulic state’ still expandingMonopoly of the Nile watersStronger and more diversified economyMonolithic and stable political systemSupport of international community

Upstream:Agriculture-based economies (rainfed)Weaker but growing economiesShadow of conflicts still presentChanging geopolitics

Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011

Changing realpolitik: new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ...

Changing realpolitik: new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ...

‘Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources

‘Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources

Regional integration:Towards economic

multilaterism

Regional integration:Towards economic

multilaterism

Unilateralism:Unilateral hydraulic

development

Unilateralism:Unilateral hydraulic

development

The Hydropolitical chessboard pre-2011The Hydropolitical chessboard pre-2011

Official ‘dyad’

UpstreamBloc

2011: Tipping point(s) in the 2011: Tipping point(s) in the hydropolitical trajectory in the Nile Basinhydropolitical trajectory in the Nile Basin

Implications of the several ‘events’?Implications of the several ‘events’?

Republic South Sudan:Republic South Sudan:Referendum and independenceReferendum and independence

Egypt: Revolution and Fall of MubarakEgypt: Revolution and Fall of Mubarak

Burundi signs the Cooperative Burundi signs the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA)Framework Agreement (CFA)

Ethiopia: Grand Renaissance DamEthiopia: Grand Renaissance Dam and Tripartite Committee and Tripartite Committee

Nile Basin:Nile Basin:The future is not what it used to be!The future is not what it used to be!

Thanks for your attentionana.cascao@siwi.org