age structure & the democratic future

Age Structure & the

Democratic Future

Richard Cincotta

(rcincotta@stimson.org)

The Stimson Center

Drexell U.

Philadelphia, PA 24 APRIL, 2012

Cincotta & Hummel, 2009

The Demographic Transition

Cincotta & Hummel, 2009

The world’s

country-level

age structures

2010

Richard Cincotta

rcincotta@stimson.org

DATA SOURCE: UN Population Division, 2011

Four categories: four individual countries, 2010

Age structural Classes: Japan 1935 to 2025. Class

Median age range

Intermediate

25 – 35 yrs

Post-mature

45 – 55 yrs

Youthful

15 – 25 yrs

Mature

35 – 45 yrs

Cincotta, in press

(69.2 million) (104.4 million)

(Population)

(123.2 million) (120.8 million)

High incidence of intra-

state conflict

Rise of stable liberal democracy

Debt challenges Rapid econ. growth

Age Structure and Trends in State Behavior

15 25 35 45 55

Median Age

Trends in age-structural phases

Gains & Losses to Liberal Democracy

Data: UN 2010 Rev.

Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009

Youthful

Youthful 5 yrs ago

Youthful states

Data: UN 2010 Rev.

Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009

Youthful

Youthful 5 yrs ago

Youthful states

from Barnett, 2004

Youthful states

Data: UN 2010 Rev.

Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009

Youthful

Youthful 5 yrs ago

Data: UN 2010 Rev.

Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009

Youthful states

Youthful

Youthful 5 yrs ago

Data: UN 2010 Rev.

Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009

Youthful states

Youthful

Youthful 5 yrs ago

Age structures: 2010

Age structures: 2030