ambassador susanne hyldelund, under-secretary for the trade council

Global Market Trends

by Ambassador Susanne Hyldelund, Under-Secretary for The Trade Council

”Global Gateway to Export 2015”Koldkærgård Conference Center, Agro Food Park - Tuesday, June 9. 2015

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Agenda

The Big Picture - Global Tendencies- Which megatrends to follow?

The Export Outlook- Where are the posibilities?

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The Big PictureThe economic center of gravity is on the

move

Udvikling i jordens økonomiske tyngdepunkt1

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Global Economic GrowthShort and Long Run

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Verden USA Euro-landene Kina

Note: Baseline 100 index = Real GDP Level Year 2014 .Source: Oxford Economics Ltd. and calculations by The Trade Council ‘s Aanlytical Department.

Long Run Accumulated Economic Growth

World

China

Euro Area

USA

World USA Euro Area China-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

3.1

2.01.4

6.8

3.8

2.82.1

6.7

The global recovery will gain momentum only slowlyReal GDP Growth, pct.

2002-2011 Avg. 2012

2013 2014

2015 2016

%

Note: Growth Estimates - yearly real growth in GDP.Source: OECD Economic Outlook, June 2015.

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Income levels towards 2030

GDP Growth (blue nuances) Income Level (green columns) – expressed in GDP per capita by 1.000 USD

Source: Centre for European Policy studies (2013)

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Economic impact• Economic growth and

innovation.• Debt Dynamics.• Urbanization (Elderly cities)• Changing patters of

consumption• Need for new products,

services and business models.

Aging Societies

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The Balance of Risks – Disclaimer!

2014 2030

EURO Crisis

Geo Conflicts

Climate Change

New Technologies

New forms of Energy

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MFA Export Outlook 2015-2016

40.000

42.000

44.000

46.000

48.000

50.000

52.000

54.000

56.000

MFA Export Outlook for 2015 og 2016Vareeksporten, eksklusiv skibe, fly og energivarer, sæsonkorrigeret,

mill.kr. pr. måned. Årets priser.

Realiseret Skøn maj Årssnit pr. mnd.

2014 2015 2016

Tyskland 11,6% 2,6% 5,1%Sverige 3,9% -3,6% 5,2%USA 7,4% 23,4% 8,2%Storbritannien -2,2% 9,5% 8,8%Norge 1,0% -3,1% 2,9%Kina (ex Hongkong) 13,5% 20,7% 13,9%Frankrig 7,3% -2,2% 3,5%Nederlandene 2,0% -0,2% 1,8%Polen 8,5% 3,1% 6,7%Italien -0,4% 1,7% -0,8%Finland -0,3% 1,0% -1,3%I alt (Verden) 2,0% 5,7% 6,0%Heraf EU28 3,9% 2,2% 4,4%Heraf ikke EU-lande -0,9% 11,2% 8,4%Basisvareeksporten er vareeksporten eksklusiv energi, skibe og fly

Vækst i basisvareeksport, pct.

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Danish Export: Volume and Growth

Vesteuropa62%

Udvalgte østeuropæiske

lande5%

Rusland og SNG2%

Nordafrika/Mellemøst/Golfen

.4%

Nordamerika10%

Latinamerika2%

Asien & Australasien

15%

Distribution of Danish Exports of Goods, 2014 (excluding exports of energy)

Vesteuropa35%

Udvalgte østeuropæiske

lande3%

Rusland og SNG-1%Nordafrika/Melle

møst/Golfen.8%

Nordamerika19%

Latinamerika4%

Asien & Australasien

30%

Distribution of GROWTH in Danish Exports of Goods, 2012-14

(excluding exports of energy)

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Economic Diplomacy

• Government Strategy on Export Promotion and Economic Diplomacy (May 2014).- Economic Diplomacy as key tool across

Government.• Special priority to important growth markets

and key volume markets.• Partnerships with business, business

organisations and authorities.• Building more strategic relations with Danish

businesses.

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Strategic sector cooperation and GPA

• MFA strengthening cooperation with Danish line ministries• Strategic sector export, e.g. Export of

the Danish Energy model• ”Partnering with Denmark – Danish

Authorities in Int. Cooperation” - 17 Growth Counsellors to 12 countries.

• Global Public Affairs – Strenghtened GPA advisory services – 40% target in 2020.